The Children of Húrin Mafia (GREAT REVIVAL)

[Magister Ludi]

Its time to stop playing footsies Andy. We've had a bevy of town deaths, and only one scum.

We need to hit scum today with a lynch. You may be scum. If you have a long elaborate reason why I, or anybody else, should consider you town, now is the time to say it. It isn't Day one anymore.

[Empking]

Andrius: You were fakeclaiming at the beginning?

[Andrius]

Andrius: You were fakeclaiming at the beginning?

No. I indeed started the game as UNKNOWN.
I'm being subtle.
Its not quite the same as Court, where it was just me and my town goddess.
I've got Morgoth at my table and there's only so much to be said without fear of saying too much.

Those that claim to oppose the enemy would do well not to hinder us.

[Andrius]

EBWOP: Missing quote marks. From LOTR TTT, obv.

[Regfan]

Almost up to page 70, roughly 10 more pages to read through, then some ISOing and time to step away from the computer to think about it and i should be fully caught up. I have to say thought that this read through so far has just solidified why I find Amrun an incredibly frustrating player to play with.

[Regfan]

I know this'll likely get ignored or shot down but I'd really like to get neighbourized by the Seraphs if possible, I have about 3434141 thoughts flowing through my brain right now that I'm used to discussing with a hydra partner about when replacing into games and not being able to voice it to anyone is highly limiting.

[Gut]

Have you considered voicing it in here? Pretty good odds someone will read it.

[Andrius]

Mina thinks WoW saved S&M from Feysal last night.

[Regfan]

I'll try and keep this as organised as possible though my explanations will likely be long winded but it's what happens after reading 75 pages in one sitting.

I think mass-claim is badly badly needed at this point. I also think majority of the open claims so far are from town and the mass-claim will allow us to attain a better idea of where the missing night-kills are as well as lock scum into claims forcing them to explain future night actions. The disadvantages to mass-claiming is slim.

I have relatively strong town reads on Magister Ludi, Amrun, MoI, Empking and Andrius. I have weaker town reads on Gut and MoS though my MoS read is incredibly weak in comparison to all of my other reads and my Gut read. That leaves scum to be inside a pool of Herodotus, Kanyeknowsbest, Elibereth and Mockingjaye.

Regards to Feysal/Furcolow:

Given the amount of town deaths and lynches it's vital at this point to be aiming for scum which Feysal most certainly isn't, the timing of his push on Espeonage reads very strongly against a bus though I do want him to explain his lack of targeting me last night. Also Furcolows attitude of asking to be vig-shot throughout the whole of D1 strongly backs up his claim which in turn supports the fact that Feysal shot at him. I see no reason whatsoever to doubt either of their claims being survivor and serial killer and even if Feysal is lying about his role to a degree I see no particular advantage in lynching him today.

Regards to Magister Ludi/Amrum

: I don't have any doubt whatsoever that they are masons/neighbourizers and even MoI at this point would have to agree upon this much. The ultimate fact is that she claimed to be a miller to Ludi N1 therefore her 'late-claiming miller' essentially means nothing at all and isn't a point for her being mafia. I do not at all see mafia sharing a 'neighborhood/mason quicktopic' and alerting her partner that she has control to a night-kill at all as she could just secretly keep it as an extra kill. Furthermore I'd say that it's highly likely that Espeonage was actually a neighbourizer who neighbourized Gandalf, I don't see it being likely that scum had 2 'neighborizers/neighbours' at all and while I understand this is a slight degree of over-reliance on setup speculation my town-read on the both of them stems from more then just that. Their reaction throughout the whole of yesterday to the claimed guilty read more as frustrated and annoyed town rather than anything else. Overall MoI, you need to cut it out with this "More votes on SaM!!!! attitude that you had for the later half of yesterday because a great deal of points you had for her being scum is meaningless though I'll admit that excessive lurking is indeed CSLs scum-meta though I don't believe it's Amruns.

Inside the scum pool I'm finding Herodotus's actions in D2s twilight to be slightly townie which is making me feel reasonably better about him compared to the other three. Elibereths continued attempts at prod-dodging while admitting that it would be entirely understandable for her to be suspected for doing so reads as the opposite of what she did in Zorasters game where she was town. I'm also not understanding how Kanye has managed to continuously avoid the lynch and vig kills, he has shown an extreme survivalist nature at almost every turn jumping on anyone that isn't himself while trying to scrape together reasons to excuse his behavior while not showing any real signs of active scumhunting. Someone stated earlier that Mocking has been showing signs of focusing solely on Kanye all game and using him as a way to seem active and make it seem like she's putting forward contribution and I wholeheartly agree, strip away her attacks on Kanye and her filler and there's almost nothing in her ISO.

What I am unsure about and would like to have discussed with Faraday/Mina before posting this is the likelihood of Mockings push on Kanye being a buss and distancing attempt, it's something I'm leaning towards but aren't confident on at all. Right now though if I had to pick one of them that I'd prefer to lynch it'd be Kanye purely because the continued avoidance of him being lynched makes him a likely scum PR that's constantly being saved though I do very much want to take a good look at the VCA to see who exactly has been saving him throughout the past few days and it's something I hope to get done tomorrow.

Vote: Kanye

[Andrius]

Regfan I'll keep this short and sweet.
S&M is the last person Feysal_SK needs to kill in order to win.
So, Mina postulated that WoW (Bodyguard) died protecting S&M from Feysal's kill.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Andrius, why the hell would you say that before letting Feysal explain himself? FFS...

Also, Regfan most of your analysis seemed relatively sound, until you concluded that Kanye should be lynched. That doesn't make any sense at all.

[Feysal]

Mina thinks WoW saved S&M from Feysal last night.

Nope.

I killed Will-o-wisp. I actually targeted Will-o-wisp, so I don't think the bodyguard power did anything.

I can already see the expected reaction from some players. Why would I not kill either claimed Túrin when everyone expected me to? That is exactly why, because everyone expected me to. Last night I would have bet money that the scum were counting on me killing Túrin for them, and the temptation of letting them down and killing someone suspicious was too great. Purposely going against the town by killing Amrun simply did not appeal to me. Sadly I was wrong about Will-o-wisp, if they had been scum I would have been thrilled.

From my point of view, based on the death flavor, SpyreX was targeted by Amrun and scum both, and the other kill was mine.

Flavor people what kind of flavor is there on Glaurung recruiting?

I can't recall any true recruiting, but Glaurung did put spells on both Túrin and Nienor, driving them to act against their own interests.

[Furcolow]

I have reason to believe I know a scum
I will get back to you when the day is done

[Gut]

I killed Will-o-wisp. I actually targeted Will-o-wisp, so I don't think the bodyguard power did anything.

Totally called it.

Chamber can verify.

[Gut]

Furcolow

- 1 -

smargaret

Feysal

- 5 - Mastermind of Sin,

Furcolow

, Dekes, Empking,

Andrius

VitaminR

- 2 - Herodotus,

gut

Dekes - 2 - MagnaofIllusion,

SpyreX

Not Voting (10): Magister Ludi,

Sun and Moon

, Ellibereth, mockingjaye,

Feysal

, kanyeknowsbest,

VitaminR

,

Will-o-wisp

,

Wraith

,

gandalf5166

Furcolow

- 1 -

smargaret

Feysal

- 4 - Mastermind of Sin, Dekes, Empking,

Andrius

VitaminR

- 2 - Herodotus,

gut

Dekes - 2 - MagnaofIllusion,

SpyreX

kanyeknowsbest - 2 -

Wraith

,

Furcolow

Not Voting (9): Magister Ludi,

Sun and Moon

, Ellibereth, mockingjaye,

Feysal

, kanyeknowsbest,

VitaminR

,

Will-o-wisp

,

gandalf5166

Furcolow

- 1 -

smargaret

Feysal

- 4 - Mastermind of Sin, Dekes,

Andrius

VitaminR

- 2 - Herodotus,

gut

Dekes - 2 - MagnaofIllusion,

SpyreX

,

VitaminR

,
kanyeknowsbest - 2 -

Wraith

,

Furcolow

,

gandalf5166

Sun and Moon

- 1 - Empking,

Will-o-wisp

- 1 - Ellibereth,

Not Voting (9): Magister Ludi,

Sun and Moon

, mockingjaye,

Feysal

, kanyeknowsbest,

Will-o-wisp

Furcolow

- 1 -

smargaret

Feysal

- 3 - Mastermind of Sin, Dekes,

Andrius

VitaminR

- 2 - Herodotus,

gut

Dekes - 3 - MagnaofIllusion,

SpyreX

,

VitaminR

kanyeknowsbest - 5 -

Wraith

,

Furcolow

,

gandalf5166

, Magister Ludi, Ellibereth

Sun and Moon

- 1 - Empking,

Not Voting (5):

Sun and Moon

, mockingjaye,

Feysal

, kanyeknowsbest,

Will-o-wisp

Furcolow

- 1 -

smargaret

Feysal

- 2 - Mastermind of Sin, Dekes

VitaminR

- 3 - Herodotus,

gut

, Empking
Dekes - 3 - MagnaofIllusion,

SpyreX

,

VitaminR

kanyeknowsbest - 6 -

Wraith

,

gandalf5166

, Magister Ludi, Ellibereth, mockingjaye,

Andrius

Sun and Moon

- 1 -

Furcolow

Not Voting (4):

Sun and Moon

,

Feysal

, kanyeknowsbest,

Will-o-wisp

Furcolow

- 1 -

smargaret

Feysal

- 1 - Dekes

VitaminR

- 3 - Herodotus,

gut

, Empking
Dekes - 2 -

SpyreX

,

VitaminR

kanyeknowsbest - 6 -

Wraith

,

gandalf5166

, Magister Ludi, Ellibereth, mockingjaye,

Andrius

Mastermind of Sin - 2 -

Furcolow

, MagnaofIllusion
Ellibereth -1 - Mastermind of Sin

Not Voting (4):

Sun and Moon

,

Feysal

, kanyeknowsbest,

Will-o-wisp

Furcolow

- 1 -

smargaret

Feysal

- 1 - Dekes

VitaminR

- 3 - Herodotus,

gut

, Empking
Dekes - 1 -

VitaminR

kanyeknowsbest - 7 -

Wraith

, Magister Ludi, Ellibereth, mockingjaye,

Andrius

,

Will-o-wisp

, MagnaofIllusion
Mastermind of Sin - 2 -

Furcolow

,

gandalf5166

Ellibereth -1 - Mastermind of Sin

Will-o-wisp

- 2 -

SpyreX

, kanyeknowsbest

Not Voting (2):

Sun and Moon

,

Feysal

Furcolow

- 1 -

smargaret

Feysal

- 1 - Dekes

VitaminR

- 10 - Herodotus,

gut

, Empking,

Furcolow

, Magister Ludi, kanyeknowsbest, MagnaofIllusion,

Wraith

,

Andrius

,

Feysal

kanyeknowsbest - 6 - mockingjaye,

Will-o-wisp

,

gandalf5166

,

Sun and Moon

,

VitaminR

Will-o-wisp

- 1 -

SpyreX

Wraith

- 1 - Mastermind of Sin

Not Voting (1): Ellibereth,

[Herodotus]

I have reason to believe I know a scum
I will get back to you when the day is done

Either say it now, or just admit you're going to purposefully be anti-town.

@Andrius: I think it's clear that what Magister (and all of us) want to know is whether your role has been revealed to you. No one is asking you to claim anything beyond that. Do you want to "be subtle" on that yes or no question?

I wasn't expecting additional Elibereth votes, but they're welcome. I'd like to see what Elib is thinking.

Mockingjaye is also a reasonable candidate, but I would want to reread before I'd join that wagon due to my early town read on the playerslot.

I could see Andrius as recruited by Espeonage N1. Not sure how the connections would work with Gandalf and with Empking.

Empking, what exactly does your ability do?

I feel like I should point out that I probably would have made the same vig shot if I were in Amrun's position. I don't understand why the scum would have also targeted Spyrex.

I suspect Feysal is 60% likely lying, but that doesn't necessarily matter.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I don't see why we're suffering confirmed scum to live who did not play to his supposed wincon that we specifically left him alive to fulfill and get him out of our way, instead killing a town protective role.

Vote: Feysal

[Magister Ludi]

Feysal, why didn't you kill Dekes Like town asked?

[Gut]

(normalized for 5 scum isntead of 4 with the last set heres the corrected values)

Day1
Magister Ludi .58
Ellibereth .44
Mastermind of Sin .35
Dekes .36
mockingjaye .73
kanyeknowsbest .43
Empking .40
MagnaofIllusion .37
Herodotus .34

Day2
Magister Ludi .49
Ellibereth .43
Mastermind of Sin .29
Dekes .29
mockingjaye .58
kanyeknowsbest .62
Empking .33
MagnaofIllusion .54
Herodotus .42

Day1 & Day2
Magister Ludi .54
Ellibereth .43
Mastermind of Sin .32
Dekes .33
mockingjaye .65
kanyeknowsbest .52
Empking .37
MagnaofIllusion .45
Herodotus .38

[Magister Ludi]

I remembered my question for gut. Why am I even listed in that, if Sun and Moon is not?

[Gut]

I remembered my question for gut. Why am I even listed in that, if Sun and Moon is not?

I'm specifically looking for mafia. Given that Sun and Moon has deminstrated the use of a killing ability I think the chance that shes mafia is 0. I can't say the same for you.

[Magister Ludi]

unvote

Vote: espeonage

I reread her iso with a ctrl:f on espeonage. Its smells like a bus if I've ever seen one. Constantly putting him close to the top of suspicions, but not really acting on it. Voting other people. Calling for a shot on that slot on some night (when Espy was bulletproof, heh).

[Magister Ludi]

woops

unvote
Vote: mockingjay

[mockingjaye]

This is a bit superfluous given that it's already been pointed out that Spy was hit twice, but I like having the visual, and now it's all in one nice and neat little space.

Spoiler:

SpyreX:

[Slain cruelly]

and [Tormented and killed] Night 3

(Amrun claimed)

WoW:

[slain cruelly]

Night 3

(Feysal claimed direct hit)

Gandalf: tormented and killed Night 2
Wraith:

slain cruelly

Night 2

(Feysal claimed)

Chronopie:

slain cruelly

Night 1

(Amrun claimed)

N2: Amrun claimed to have targeted Espeonage (1-Shot BP)
N1: Feysal targeted Furc; apparently no scum kill

So..."tormented and killed" is scum kill flavor; all of the kills/claims from 3rd parties add up now. Gandalf was a scum kill, and SpyreX got hit by scum and Amrun. I think this further clears Amrun. I want Feysal to claim his action before anyone else comments or speculates as to what happened last night. (Edit: He's done this; I agree with MoS re: what was said about Feysal's kill before he claimed.)

In response to Herod: I agree that knowing how Esp's recruit worked would make this easier, especially since there was no apparent scum kill on N1, though that could be explained by a few different things. I'm pretty sure there is nothing to be wrung from this speculation, though, at least until we decide to lay all our cards on the table.

In response to Kanye: No way? And when I flip town (because that's going to happen), what do you have?

1)

Go back and check those VCs again, because picking just one and not looking at where I really fell on that list isn't telling the whole story considering how quickly people were moving on and off your wagon

, and

2) I still hold that you're scum, and as such, YES way, it's totally believable that it got to Esp/Marg before you had scum on your wagon. What's not believable is that you are town with only one scum on, and I believe Ludi, S&M, and Gut are all town, and I know I am. If the rest of the town wants to lynch me to prove that, go right ahead. I spent two full days pushing your lynch because I believed in it and I still do, and if it takes my lynch to get you lynched, then go for it because I want nothing more in this game right now than to see you dead.

As for Esp/Marg's potential buddies, I pointed out a while ago that Esp took care to justify Kanye's vote on Gandalf but not his own and said I thought they were potential buddies (Post 550).

Regarding the numbers: high may be bad based on stats, but when I flip town, it means nothing. I stand by the belief that Kanye is scum, and that he should have been lynched on D1. I also stand by my choices on D3; I believe today's flips prove that Amrun is town, and the scum-recruiting dragon is dead. I'm glad I took my time making a decision yesterday, too.

Vote: Kanye

There are a few choices for his buddies: Emp having the ability to give roles makes me think he is probably town. For MoI to be scum, it would have to be with Ludi (see speculation yesterday about claim)--however, I still think it's far too convenient that he would have a latent power unlocked just as he was planning to claim a fake guilty and that that would precipitate his decision to claim suicide cop, too, and on top of that, I've got a town read on Ludi, so I still don't see that happening. I've had a nullish-town read on Gut and MoS and a nullish-scum read on Dekes, Elli, and Herod, but nothing so strong as my read on Kanye. Andy, Feysal, and Furc fall into another category altogether. Right now I would list Kanye and Elli as my top choices for a lynch today.

Regfan: Right. I've been bussing Kanye into the ground this whole time, and decided to bus Esp/Marg while I was at it just for fun. You totally got me.

My attacks on Kanye are attacks on someone I believe is scum. And filler? Where? When I was trying to sort out the crap that was yesterday? Say what you want about the frequency of my posts, but don't call that "filler." I was going through my thought processes in the thread in hopes I sharing them and getting reactions would help me make sense of them because yesterday was incredibly confusing. (And if Andy doesn't acknowledge the posts I made about MoI yesterday as being per my meta, then I have to seriously question his goals right now, as that is exactly the kind of situational walk-through he has seen me do several times now in different situations and different games. The closest I can come to verifying that if he won't is Katy's (my hydra partner in Olympus) comment about me in the last LOTR mini, where she pointed out that I do a lot of thinking behind the scenes and don't post everything I think about. Amrun should remember that, and Ludi, too, if he read that far in the game.)

P.S.: Andy, I was in your mini (albeit briefly) and the days/nights weren't at the same time; I also just joined another large game and have been catching up with it today, too, but it started when this game was in night and I was out of town from Wednesday morning through late Saturday anyway. So...I'm not getting that comment? Also, this day only just began, so I'm not

that

far behind.

Prev. Edit: Feysal was under strict orders not to kill either Turin last night. I get your point, but be fair about the constraints he was under; we didn't leave him alive to fulfill his wincon at all.

[Mastermind of Sin]

mjaye, stop tunneling. This is part of why I thought you were scum yesterday. If you want to prove you're not scum, come up with some different damn suspects. Kanye can't be scum by himself, but don't you dare base your analysis on the assumption that he is.