The Children of Húrin Mafia (GREAT REVIVAL)

[Amrun]

The flip makes kanye look a lot better, mjay. It also basically clears MoS in my opinion.

[Regfan]

Also, Regfan most of your analysis seemed relatively sound, until you concluded that Kanye should be lynched. That doesn't make any sense at all.

Can you attempt to summarize or explain your town-read on him for me then please. Also if you believe my analysis is relatively sound why are you voting Feysal when I elaborated into the need and benefits of aiming for scum today rather then third party?

As for Esp/Marg's potential buddies, I pointed out a while ago that Esp took care to justify Kanye's vote on Gandalf but not his own and said I thought they were potential buddies (Post 550).

Yes, you did ask Esp to be vigged quite a few times but asking for X or Y to be vigged is incredibly meaningless as the vig at the end of the day is going to end up shooting their own target and a recommendation from one specific player is likely to hold no weight whatsoever in their decision. I'd like an explanation as to why you never attempted to present a real case against Espeonage or comment on his ISO at all with the exception of pointing out a potential partner-tell with him and Kanye. If you really believed you nailed two scum (Espeonage and Kanye) wouldn't a skim or detailed read through of Espeonage and a presented case strengthen and solidify your scum-read on Kanye while providing ample information to lead a lynch?

Say what you want about the frequency of my posts, but don't call that "filler." I was going through my thought processes in the thread in hopes I sharing them and getting reactions would help me make sense of them because yesterday was incredibly confusing.

I'll admit filler is probably a little harsh and the wrong word but you spent a great deal of the game focusing solely on voting, putting forward reasons and questioning Kanye while really not attempting to chime and comment deeply on any of the other ongoing wagons. The biggest example of this is your introduction post into D2 focuses on Feysals claim and Kanye and nothing more than that. In #1297 you show your first signs of doubt in this read where you admit that SpyreXs reasoning for Kanye being town is sound but then progress onward to continue pushing your read without taking a chance to step back and really rethink it. Furthermore you never really commented on any of the other leading wagons and your biggest 'analysis' on an alternate player throughout the game was on my MoI isn't lyncher and is town which was relatively universally agreed upon at the time making the post read as an attempt to seem active while really contributing and presenting minimal.

I still strongly think mass-claim is what we should be doing here but I await Furcolows reveal on the scum he 'bagged'.

[kanyeknowsbest]

Inside the scum pool I'm finding Herodotus's actions in D2s twilight to be slightly townie which is making me feel reasonably better about him compared to the other three. Elibereths continued attempts at prod-dodging while admitting that it would be entirely understandable for her to be suspected for doing so reads as the opposite of what she did in Zorasters game where she was town. I'm also not understanding how Kanye has managed to continuously avoid the lynch and vig kills,

he has shown an extreme survivalist nature at almost every turn jumping on anyone that isn't himself while trying to scrape together reasons to excuse his behavior while not showing any real signs of active scumhunting.

Someone stated earlier that Mocking has been showing signs of focusing solely on Kanye all game and using him as a way to seem active and make it seem like she's putting forward contribution and I wholeheartly agree, strip away her attacks on Kanye and her filler and there's almost nothing in her ISO.

the bolded is pretty much not true at all? please recall that i refused to vote feysal day 1 (someone i had a town read on) while pressure was on me was the heaviest. certainly i voted vitaminr and peregrine, but i did not have town reads on them, and smargaret was hardly a forced survivalist vote. also how was sticking to my guns on gandalf and not backing off survivalist? how about volunteering for vigging d2? your reasons have no base in reality.

and heres another thought: are mockingjaye and i bussing each other? if im a super powerful scum role like you say, why has mockingjaye been attempting to bus me all game? why did smargaret try to bus me?

[Regfan]

The bolded is pretty much not true at all? please recall that i refused to vote feysal day 1 (someone i had a town read on) while pressure was on me was the heaviest. certainly i voted vitaminr and peregrine, but i did not have town reads on them, and smargaret was hardly a forced survivalist vote. also how was sticking to my guns on gandalf and not backing off survivalist? how about volunteering for vigging d2? your reasons have no base in reality.

Examples of your survivalist nature include and are not limited to your pushing towards claimed third parties at game-start rather then allowing or aiming for scumhunting to occurr elsewhere. Your jump on Pere while adding no reasons whatsoever towards your vote and your jump on Vitamin while adding no reasons whatsoever towards your vote. Volunteering for a vigging is absolutely meaningless, as stated earlier one persons recommendation or suggestion of who should be vigged is almost irrelevant because at the end of the day the vig is going to decide the shot by themselves.

And heres another thought: are mockingjaye and i bussing each other? if im a super powerful scum role like you say, why has mockingjaye been attempting to bus me all game? why did smargaret try to bus me?

This is actually a good point as to why MJaye/You aren't partners and why I wanted to discuss my thoughts and reads with Faraday/Mina. I re-read though and I don't see smargaret pushing towards you at all and Espeonage avoided doing so for a long time and when he did it was incredibly weakly placed.

[Amrun]

Don't see why you can't discuss everything here, Regfan.

Also I hadn't said it yet, but just to be clear.

MoI is definitely not scum, after that flip. Kthxbye.

[Regfan]

Don't see why you can't discuss everything here, Regfan.

I can, it's just likely to spam up the thread and and lead towards me constantly waiting and hoping for someone to reply. It looks like there's minimal chance of me getting neighbourized though so with that said, while you're online mind answering some questions for me:

1) How many scum are likely alive, how close/far are we likely to lylo?
2) Would a mass-claim now be better with or without name claims occurring?
3) Is your town-read on MoS so strongly due to the timing of his vote on Espeonage?

[Amrun]

1) We have to have a MINIMUM of 3 scum left alive ... but considering how many people are left, not lylo yet.
2) Definitely with. We apparently have two town Turins, so why the fuck not claim names...
3) Yes, and just the way it came about. It seemed organic. Not like a bus.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Also, Regfan most of your analysis seemed relatively sound, until you concluded that Kanye should be lynched. That doesn't make any sense at all.

Can you attempt to summarize or explain your town-read on him for me then please. Also if you believe my analysis is relatively sound why are you voting Feysal when I elaborated into the need and benefits of aiming for scum today rather then third party?

I said *most*...I don't feel like we're in LYLO on Day 3 (that would be poor game design, and I have a better opinion of our mod), and I see no reason not to lynch claimed scum. Him being third-party or not is a irrelevant. He is not aligned with the town, and he has just demonstrated that he is more interested in killing off town than fulfilling his own supposed wincon. That means that he either has some ulterior motives for killing off town members (besides simply being scum), or he lied to us about his wincon, not thinking that a role as important as Turin would be claimed so early in the game. I'm going with the latter, but in either case it's more than enough reason for him to die today.

As an extra note against this being LYLO, for us to be in that scenario there would need to be 5 remaining mafia all part of the same group, and we'd have to lynch wrong today AND have 3 separate kills tonight on all town.

1) I think 6 mafia is a ludicrous number for a 22 player game.
2) If we lynch Feysal today, we CAN'T have 3 kills tonight, therefore ENSURING that even if point #1 is wrong, there is absolutely no way that today can be LYLO. So if you're truly worried about preventing the game from ending today and you're not just blowing smoke, you should be voting Feysal.

[Amrun]

Oh, also, I should mention that I had another looksee at my role pm and realized I definitely became a miller due to shooting Chronopie.

And I'm not sure if I mentioned this but I'll do it again just in case: I'm compulsive.

[Regfan]

So if you're truly worried about preventing the game from ending today and you're not just blowing smoke, you should be voting Feysal.

To put it simply, a scum lynch is a lot more powerful than a SK lynch in a larger game like this if the SK is willing to assist us in shooting and lynching scum. If we had a lot less players alive or this was a mini of some form I'd completely understand and be all for lynching Feysal right now but we can use him to shoot a predetermined pool effectively using him as a tool against the mafia and help dwindle down potential suspects. So MoS, who's scum?

Oh and Andrius, you need to yell at Faraday enough to get a complete reads list from him.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok, trying this one more time …

22 Actual players in the game (disregarding the Seraphs – they will have to live with it). High expected total scum percentage is around 33%. I’m going to go 35% just based on gut. Expected total scum is 7.7, rounded to 8. After a Night’s sleep I’ve decided to filter out Feysal and Furc from the process to better identify scum. This leaves 6 expected scum.

Blue equals confirmed Town via deaths.
Red equals confirmed non-Town via deaths
Orange equals Third Party claims in thread.

N1 End of Day Wagons –

kanyeknowsbest - 5 -

Will-o-wisp

, mockingjaye,

Wraith

, Sun and Moon,

PeregrineV

Feysal

- 3 - Mastermind of Sin, MagnaofIllusion, Herodotus

PeregrineV

- 12 - Dekes,

Feysal

, Empking,

Spyrex

, Gut, kanyeknowsbest, Magister Ludi,

VitaminR

,

Furcolow

, Andrius,

smargaret

,

gandalf5166

Not Voting (2):

Chronopie

, Ellibereth


N2 End of Day Wagons –

Furcolow

l - 1 -

smargaret

Feysal

- 1 - Dekes

VitaminR

- 10 - Herodotus, Gut, Empking,

Furcolow

l, Magister Ludi, kanyeknowsbest, MagnaofIllusion,

Wraith

, Andrius,

Feysal

kanyeknowsbest - 6 - mockingjaye,

Will-o-wisp

,

gandalf5166

, Sun and Moon,

VitaminR

Will-o-wisp

- 1 -

Spyrex

Wraith

- 1 - Mastermind of Sin

Not Voting (1): Ellibereth,

N3 End of Day Wagons –

Sun and Moon - 4 - Empking, Ellibereth, Andrius,

Spyrex

Empking - 1 -

Will-o-wisp

smargaret

- 9 - Herodotus, kanyeknowsbest, Mastermind of Sin, Sun and Moon,

Furcolow

l, Gut, Magister Ludi, mockingjaye, MagnaofIllusion
MagnaofIllusion - 1 -

smargaret

Not Voting (2): Dekes,

Feysal

[Regfan]

MoI, if you don't mind I'd like to hear your current reads without VCAs impact on them. I really don't believe VCA is as powerful a tool as everyone seems to be making it out to be and is incredibly overused.

[Feysal]

I don't see why we're suffering confirmed scum to live who did not play to his supposed wincon that we specifically left him alive to fulfill and get him out of our way, instead killing a town protective role.

Would you prefer that I had killed or tried to kill a town vigilante instead, which is what I believe Amrun is?

Feysal, why didn't you kill Dekes like town asked?

This is why. I never explained it in thread, but Dekes accidentally posting his reads was the very reason why I gave him a town read on day one. Yes, it could have been faked, but it was still cause to doubt whether Dekes was scum. I decided to look at other suspects and chose Will-o-wisp out of them. I don't regret that choice either, only that I missed scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MoI, if you don't mind I'd like to hear your current reads without VCAs impact on them. I really don't believe VCA is as powerful a tool as everyone seems to be making it out to be and is incredibly overused.

No. Sorry, I don’t really care if you like it or not. I’m going through the process to help me focus my attention where it is most likely to show benefit. I find VCA to be powerful.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Wagon Analysis –

Day 1 –

With 6 expected Mafia and 22 alive the percentage is 27.2%.

Expected scum on wagon of 12 is 3.264, rounded to 3.
Expected scum off the wagon (10) is 2.72, rounded to 3.

Scum pool on the wagon (2) – Dekes, Empking, Gut, Kayne, Magister, Adrius
Scum pool off the wagon (3) – Mockingjaye, Sun and Moon, MoS, Hero, Elli

Day 2 –

With 6 expected Mafia and 20 alive the percentage is 30%

Expected scum on wagon of 10 is 3.
Expected scum off wagon (10) is 3.

Scum pool on the wagon (3) – Hero, Gut, Empking, Magister, Kayne, Andrius
Scum pool off the wagon (2) – Dekes, Mockingjaye, Sun and Moon, MoS, Ellie


Day 3 –

With 6 expected Mafia and 17 alive the percentage is 35.3%

Expected scum on wagon of 9 is 3.168, rounded to 3.
Expected scum off wagon (8) is 2.816, rounded to 3.

Scum pool on the wagon (3) – Herod, Kayne, MoS, Sun and Moon, Gut, Magister, Mockingjaye
Scum pool off the wagon (2) – Dekes, Empking, Elli, Andrius

[Amrun]

You seriously think there are 6 mafia... lol

[MagnaofIllusion]

Analytics –

Day 1:

2 scum in 6 players = .333 per player – Dekes, Empking, Gut, Kayne, Magister, Andrius
3 scum in 5 players = .600 per player – Mockingjaye, Sun and Moon, MoS, Ellie, Herod

Day 2:

3 scum in 6 players - .500 per player – Herod, Gut, Empking, Magister, Kayne, Andrius
2 scum in 5 players - .400 per player – Dekes, Mockingjaye, Sun and Moon, MoS, Elli

Day 3:

3 scum in 7 players - .430 per player – Herod, Kayne, MoS, Sun and Moon, Gut, Magister, Mockingjaye
2 scum in 4 players - .500 per player – Dekes, Empking, Elli, Andrius

Complied Results –

Dekes – 1.233
Empking – 1.333
Gut – 1.263
Kayne – 1.263
Magister - 1.263
Andrius – 1.333
Mockingjaye – 1.430
Sun and Moon – 1.430
MoS – 1.430
Elli – 1.500
Herod – 1.630

Resulting Pools –

High – Herod, Elli, Mockingjaye, Sun and Moon, MoS
Medium – Empking, Andrius,
Low – Dekes, Gut, Kayne, Magister

[MagnaofIllusion]

And now I can hear the various whines and complaints .... here's a notice - I DON'T CARE.

It's my method and it works for me. I could point you to where it has worked over and over. I'm not going to because I don't really feel the need to justify.

Suffice it to say I'll be focusing my attention on the pool of Herod, Elli, Mockingjaye and MoS today in deciding where scum lies.

And, of course, deciding if Feysal needs to live. I told you he should have died Day 2 but everyone said "NOOOOO, we can direct him and it's all ProTown and junk". So where did that get us? Two more Town dead and no scum shot.

[Herodotus]

You seriously think there are 6 mafia... lol

This.

@MagnaofIllusion: Seems like a roundabout way to arrive at the conclusion that there is very likely one scum among (Elli and Mockingjaye).

[MagnaofIllusion]

@MOD – Can we officially replace Sun and Moon with Amrun in the game since that’s effective what we have? Thanks!

--

Mockingjaye’s

1948

strikes me at a gut level as bad.

1. Continual AtE (when I flip Town what then, etc.)
2. Continual focus on Kayne and ignoring of changes of game-state.
3. General unhelpful ‘helpful’ posting ( a visual guide to the NKs that adds nothing to scum-hunting, discussion about Smarg’s possible recruiting that goes no-where ).
4. Sarcasm used as defense regarding ‘bussing’ possibilities as opposed to explanation about why the Smarg vote isn’t a bus.

--

The flip makes kanye look a lot better, mjay. It also basically clears MoS in my opinion.

Elaborate … I’d like to know your reasons.

Oh, also, I should mention that I had another looksee at my role pm and realized I definitely became a miller due to shooting Chronopie.

And I'm not sure if I mentioned this but I'll do it again just in case: I'm compulsive.

So you just decided to look at your role PM now (and not yesterday) to decide shooting Chrono made you a Miller?

And just now decided to mention you were Compulsive?

--

I have reason to believe I know a scum
I will get back to you when the day is done

Oh I can’t wait to see this …

--

Alright, really need some explanations here. Feysal is lynch #1, S&M is lynch #2. Feysal has absolutely NO reason to kill someone other than the person who gives him a win and removes him from the game. Which means that he was lying to us about his win condition from the beginning (which doesn't surprise me). S&M's SpyreX kill stinks, SpyreX was fairly obviously town. I still think it's hella suspicious that S&M has claimed 3 kills so far, and as of yet we have no evidence of a mafia kill. I half suspect that they claimed the failed kill on Espy/Smarg in order to supposedly account for a mafia kill Night 2 and to make them look good when/if their scumbuddy died. Right now, though, I'm more worried about Feysal. I'd also like to hear from MoI about why he isn't dead. Suicide cop failing to get his guilty result lynched and then surviving the day? WTF is that shit?

tl;dr - Feysal, S&M, and MoI are all still hella scummy and have some explaining to do.

Even before the VC Analysis pointed me in his direction this post STUNK as from scum.

1. Multiple mistakes in facts (Lack of Mafia kill, ignoring the shut off of my latent ability) used to take stance
2. Pushing three solidly potential dangers to Mafia (Serial Killer, Proven non-Mafia killer, possible Cop) as the top suspects for the day and completely ignoring the fact that Smargaret flipped scum, and Bulletproof scum at that.

Scummy.

--

no way did it get until espeonage/smarg before i had scum on me. will present a case shortly

Actually it is possible (I’ve seen it happen) but odds are that you are correct and Mockingjaye is one of my top suspects.

--

I still am not sure what to make of MoI. What was your result last night? I know its been asked already, but I want to know who Feysal tried to shoot.

What results? Cop results? I don’t have any as my latent ability was deactivated at the end of the day. I’m assuming the Feysal comment was directed at him.

--

No. I indeed started the game as UNKNOWN.
I'm being subtle.
Its not quite the same as Court, where it was just me and my town goddess.
I've got Morgoth at my table and there's only so much to be said without fear of saying too much.

Those that claim to oppose the enemy would do well not to hinder us.

No, this crap ends.

When was your role actived or did you actually have a role from the beginning? Direct answer with none of this flourid crap ASAP. Hanging out with the Seraphs doesn't exempt you from providing usable content.

--

I know this'll likely get ignored or shot down but I'd really like to get neighbourized by the Seraphs if possible, I have about 3434141 thoughts flowing through my brain right now that I'm used to discussing with a hydra partner about when replacing into games and not being able to voice it to anyone is highly limiting.

If a Seraph wants to do that they are free to but at this stage with at least two living players in that QT I don’t see it as beneficial to use a turn on that when you can process you thoughts in thread.

I think mass-claim is badly badly needed at this point. I also think majority of the open claims so far are from town and the mass-claim will allow us to attain a better idea of where the missing night-kills are as well as lock scum into claims forcing them to explain future night actions. The disadvantages to mass-claiming is slim.

Please explain why you think mass-claiming will tell us about missing Night kills when the only one really in question is the Tortured kill from N1.

--

I can already see the expected reaction from some players. Why would I not kill either claimed Túrin when everyone expected me to? That is exactly why, because everyone expected me to. Last night I would have bet money that the scum were counting on me killing Túrin for them, and the temptation of letting them down and killing someone suspicious was too great. Purposely going against the town by killing Amrun simply did not appeal to me. Sadly I was wrong about Will-o-wisp, if they had been scum I would have been thrilled.

Yet you explicitly agreed to target Dekes and did nothing of the sort. Anything you say from this point is meaningless IMO. Sit in the corner til we decide whether you need to die today or if we MIGHT let you live.

This is why. I never explained it in thread, but Dekes accidentally posting his reads was the very reason why I gave him a town read on day one. Yes, it could have been faked, but it was still cause to doubt whether Dekes was scum. I decided to look at other suspects and chose Will-o-wisp out of them. I don't regret that choice either, only that I missed scum.

So you link us to a VitaminR post? Why didn’t you mention this BEFORE Day 3 ended again. That’s right, because you had not intention of following through and tried to kill either Amrun or I.

Do you think we are stupid?

--

This.

@MagnaofIllusion: Seems like a roundabout way to arrive at

the conclusion that there is very likely one scum among (Elli and Mockingjaye).

Don’t bother. I don’t care what you think about the process.

That said how did you distill the bolded from my post? That’s not what I said at all. Difficutly reading? I notice you specifically avoid mentioning yourself or MoS who are also Top picks form the MoIputer.

[Gut]

Can we just lynch Ellilurkerscum?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Can we just lynch Ellilurkerscum?

Possibly ... I still want to go back and look at the Esp interactions with all my suspects ...

[Ellibereth]

I replaced out a few days ago. Sorry for failing guys...I should know by now when I'm in fail at complex games mode. I think the official announce a thingy should be soon since I had my replacement and all that sorted out with Plum etc. Gl

[Sun and Moon]

To be honest? I didn't look at the role pm yesterday, no. Most of yesterday (game day) I was posting from my phone and that's a pain in the ass. I knew I was Turin and vig. I think I once took a quick look to make sure I didn't have a surname in it (I don't), but I was in a hurry at the time. I totally glanced over that if I kill town something bad definitely happens. It was in the "active" part of my role, which I guess I glazed over since "active" for vig is pretty obvious. In my role name, it's called "Descending" and that didn't immediately register any bells.

I can't remember if I said I was compulsive before or not; if I didn't, I meant to, and I just wanted to make sure the information got out there in case I didn't. I knew I was compulsive, but to be honest, it was 100% at the back of my mind.

Also, I can't replace out as Amrun because CSL still wants to participate. (I tried to do this already, actually.) He posts in our hydra every once in awhile, and last night he posted in the neighbor qt... I can't get him to post here, idk.

But I post a lot on the go and from my phone, and switching accounts isn't facilitated there. Not posting except from the hydra account was one of the things that kept me from posting before... I would think, "When I get home to a computer, I'll read/post" and that never, ever happened.ugh

I do apologize for that, though. I'm pretty much not doing hydras anymore except special circumstances when I can be more certain of motivation-to-post-in-hydra and partner-post-rate.

[Nachomamma8]

ANDRIUS.

I GLANCED THROUGH YOU"R POSTS TO SEE IF YOU WERE TOWN. YOU ARE.

DON'T DECEIVE ME. DON'T BREAK MY HEART.