The Children of Húrin Mafia (GREAT REVIVAL)


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Post Post #2100 (ISO) » Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:29 pm

Post by Regfan »

Nacho points out an interesting point in regards to Andrius, his change of story from 'no role whatsoever' to 'unknown role' and lack of complete elaboration about the whole scenario isn't making me feel good about him at all nor is his promise of providing content and future reads and lack of follow through on it.

I still very much want to lynch Mjaye today but the benefits of lynching Feysal given the situation make him an acceptable lynch as well and yes, I know this contradicts what I said earlier but I thought he was claiming to have 2 targets alive and therefore reason to follow our orders, it's also the reason I was asking if name-claiming should be avoided in a mass-claim. I also am starting to lean towards Herrodutus being mafia over Kanye and Nacho but only slightly.

In post 2065, MagnaofIllusion wrote:It’s not simply for being kicked out. That was the last element that solified my read. I do find it funny that you take me to task for that when your “his push on Empking via reaction testing” you think is a strong-town tell when it’s really Null until we see Empking’s alignment.

If that's merely an element of your read on him then the strength of the town read makes a lot more sense. Also I don't think Empkings alignment reflects heavily on the towniness of Guts action, if Empking is scum it certainly has some factor into it and makes Gut near confirmed town but if Empkings town the pure reactions gained from it occurring generated content and the ability to attain an easier read on Empking due to his response and as such make Gut likely town.
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Post Post #2101 (ISO) » Tue Nov 15, 2011 8:45 pm

Post by Magister Ludi »

Unvote
Vote: Feysal
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Post Post #2102 (ISO) » Tue Nov 15, 2011 8:59 pm

Post by mockingjaye »

I'm going to start with reads/etc, then come back to the issues addressed to me (mainly by Regfan and MoI) since my last post. Please do not address me as if I am ignoring questions/comments from other posts at this point as I'm simply deferring them until my next post.

A couple of people asked about my listing of reads in the last post (which was ref. my first post of the day), so I will go on and answer that now since it's relevant to this one. The list I had made in my last post was clarifying for MoS what my reads were when I was making the first post of the day.

Herod: Prior to D3 My top five was basically Kanye, Espeonage, Empking, and a shifting bottom two, including Feysal (pre-claim) and S&M at different points. On D3, I still held the top three reads, at least until Emp explained he gave Gandalf his role. (If you go back you can clearly see me asking Emp about it.) Today, Kanye is still my top scum-read, and between that and the solid town reads I have, I'm reevaluating my list. I don't usually share a complete list of suspects early in the game, but that doesn't mean I'm not thinking about them. Usually, and especially early in the game, I am comfortable listing 3-5 at a time, updating that list as the game progresses.

Staying on Kanye this whole time may not have been the right thing to do as town, but I still stand by my read on him and think he should be lynched. Nacho, as for my "late" vote on Marg, the first time I was even able to mention her after her first post I agreed with her lynch, but I was holding off voting because I was waiting to hear the stuff about MoI. The reason my vote-post was so short was because I was getting ready to go out of town and didn't actually have a lot of time, and because I had suspected that slot since D1 and had affirmed that in the post immediately prior to that one, so I didn't figure much more needed to be said.

___

1. If you are town, go back and read Espeonage's ISO, and look at his interactions with Kanye. Especially the time when he says something about his vote on Kanye finally being serious--like when it looked like Kanye was the lynch, right before Feysal managed to shift everyone onto Peregrine. Regfan--you have mentioned that I should have been more proactive in my case about Espeonage. Well, a lot of my feelings about him were connected with Kanye flipping scum, so I wanted Kanye dead first. Since Esp/Marg flipped scum, those feelings are already cemented. In Esp's ISO, he clearly tries to justify Kanye's actions for a period, warns him away from Gandalf, and finally busses him. I absolutely feel that they are on the same team, and if I had the power to make Kanye dead, I would.

2. If you are town, go back and look at the end of the day wagon on Kanye/Vitamin. With six votes on Kanye, three are confirmed to everyone, and four are confirmed to at least three of us (me, Andy, Amrun). I'm reading Amrun as town, so the only "iffy" slot I see on that wagon is Andy's.

If Kanye is town, why would there only be one potential mafia-scum on his wagon? (And I'm speaking from my perspective, which will be verified when I flip town.) Mind you, this is the
second
end-of-day that saw Kanye vs. Flipped Town, and given the apparent willingness of people to actually vote for Kanye, I don't see why scum wouldn't take glorious advantage of a Kanye mislynch rather than advance yet another counter-wagon late in the day.

3. I had a feeling that if Nacho came in the game and attacked me, he is town. This is because if he were scum, I have a feeling he would want to distance himself from my mislynch given the suspicion that is already surrounding his slot. Therefore, I have moved him into my town reads. Prior to this, I had moved him into my top five scum list based on Elli's play.

4. Regfan is probably scum. In his discussions with me, he is very subtly twisting the meanings of things I've said in his questions when it should actually be quite obvious what I meant. I will address more of these points directly in my next post. I had a very iffy read on Dekes, much like I had in
Olympus
, but nothing concrete. More on Regfan in my next post, when I reply to him directly.

5. I said in my last post that I thought my wagon was scum driven (hello, Kanye and Regfan, yes I WAS talking about you), but there is no way that everyone in that first group of four would be scum, and if there are two scum on the wagon, then the one or two left would probably split themselves between a variety of other options, i.e., tacitly defending me as town. Therefore, I'm thinking
Herod
is scum. And guess what, way back in his second post he says this:
Herod wrote:Kanyek, maybe? I don't have a big scum read on him, but I'd be willing to sheep onto a wagon.

Not sure about Espeonage. I think he's just playing poorly.
His vig list in his ISO 18 is also a lovely thing. (I wouldn't have even noticed this at all if Ludi hadn't made it a point against me, but here Herod has Esp on that list, after 2 town--and before Esp's one-shot BP had been taken by Amrun's vig attmept on N2.)

6. Andy, <3. But, your post about me not posting here and posting elsewhere made me sad. Especially after I said a couple of times in my next posts that you could verify certain things about me but you didn't comment on them and then just said I was clearly town. That makes me think you are scum because you backed away from the conversation entirely.

So, my list is as of right now: Kanye, Regfan, Herod, and Andy.
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Post Post #2103 (ISO) » Tue Nov 15, 2011 9:09 pm

Post by Plum »

Image


VOTE COUNT #4.5Nachomamma8 - 1 - Gut
Feysal -
5
- Empking, Andrius, MagnaofIllusion, Mastermind of Sin, Magister Ludi
mockingjaye - 2 - kanyeknowsbest, Regfan
kanyeknowsbest - 2 - mockingjaye, Furcolow
Sun and Moon - 1 - Nachomamma8

Not Voting (3): Sun and Moon, Feysal, Herodotus

With 14 alive it will take 8 votes to lynch.

No one needs a prod!

Deadline for Day 4 will be in approximately (but no fewer than) 9 days and will be exactly determined soon.
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Post Post #2104 (ISO) » Wed Nov 16, 2011 2:51 am

Post by Gut »

In post 2096, Nachomamma8 wrote:That, and I find myself pretty fucking dubious that one of the roles that Plum put in the game was "UNKNOWN". Yes, this is a bastard game, but even a bastard game doesn't have a use for a role that has no motivation to play.

And giving really sucky roles to gandalf is acceptable, is what you're saying? Yeah, you're scum.
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Post Post #2105 (ISO) » Wed Nov 16, 2011 3:29 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

@Mod: Please update the first post with replacements. It's getting confusing.
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Post Post #2106 (ISO) » Wed Nov 16, 2011 5:20 am

Post by MagnaofIllusion »

Ok, catching back up –

Oh look … nothing from Andy. Not a surprise.

Amrun
– I think Mockingjaye is the best shot for tonight personally. Before the day ends give us your two or three top suspects so we have some WIFOM in where you are going.

--

Regfan wrote:If that's merely an element of your read on him then the strength of the town read makes a lot more sense. Also I don't think Empkings alignment reflects heavily on the towniness of Guts action, if Empking is scum it certainly has some factor into it and makes Gut near confirmed town but if Empkings town the pure reactions gained from it occurring generated content and the ability to attain an easier read on Empking due to his response and as such make Gut likely town.


So no matter what Empking’s alignment your take-away is that Gut is Town. Thus only Town ever use gambits? Disagree completely.

--

Furc wrote:I can confirm Feysal is a Serial Killer, by the way, and we should be lynching scum today


Furc wrote:His win condition didn't have a list of names with it, or why would I even need to appeal to town/the game not already be over? if you believe im +1 to scum, sure, but why would I even claim then?

Feysal has no chance to win unless they have the town
Town has way less chance to live without Feysal
Scum are getting very high in numbers


These two responses make me assured that Feysal is the right lynch today.

1. Appeal to Fear – “Scum are getting very high in numbers!!!”
2. He’s previously stated that he doesn’t want to bother pissing off the scum. So this “We should be lynching scum” is just empty posting.
3. Why, if Furc has dual wincons as claimed, does he care if Feysal dies? He still supposedly has his Survivor wincon and is by his own admission closer to a win lynching Feysal in that situation as scum gets closer to winning. I get the sense that Furc is more tied to Feysal than he has let on.

--

Herod wrote:I quoted a paragraph of Mockingjaye's on the last page that looked town. Most of what I have seen as towntells from Mockingjaye are like that; she's saying things like a townie would. It's not a major townread, but enough that I'd rather see Ellib/Nacho lynched/vigged sooner.


Good enough. Personally I think her lack of interaction with Esp until the bitter end and lack of interaction with many of the remaining players (up until today when she was pressured to do so) is definitely worthy of death. I don’t but much stock in ‘effort’ Towntells.

--

Gut wrote:It's kind of silly, but I'm perfectly fine letting Feysal live. Especially with Nachoobvscum running around.


This is why I don’t take you seriously.

--

MoS wrote:Yes, I ignored the person who lurked all game and who I said needed to be replaced before we could do anything with that slot. Then they replaced and posted something that got my attention, so I attacked. Do you not think the post I voted smarg over was legitimately scummy? Why do you not believe that town could have read that post and concluded smarg was worth pursuing?


My issue is that Espeonage posted plenty of scummy posts worth pointing out before his replacement. You can look through my ISO and see where I do so. And yet all you say is “Let’s replace him”.

Of course Smarg was scummy in that post. I don’t really buy your sudden “Ok, this slot has to die die die” reaction to that post isn’t bussing because of your complete lack of attention to Esp before the replacement.

Do you think my read that you are very possibly a Esp / Smarg partner who did everything to avoid calling out a very powerful role and then saw Smarg’s self-destruction and had to bus isn’t a logical conclusion?

MoS wrote:Because I was making a point. It's one thing for a person to make empty statements like "you're just being repititive" or "you're undermining me", it's another thing to prove it. I wanted people to realize that you were tunneling me so bad that you weren't even stopping to make real argument anymore. You're just throwing the same old shit at me over and over.


This, of course, doesn’t actually prove anything to any degree about my opinions being incorrect. Which is why it is scummy rhetoric.

MoS wrote:That's not even a tenuous accusation, that's outright ludicrous. You think that I have such a low opinion of the intelligence of you, Amrun, and Magister, as well as the entire rest of the town players in this game, that I think I could simply tell you something completely contrary to the facts of the game and have you believe me? You really *do* think I'm a moron, don't you?


Really? Are you saying scum MoS has never pretended to not know or understand publicly apparent facts to get be able to make this sort of argument?

Because the answer to this will cover most of the other responses about you being inattentive and the implication to your alignment of such.
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Post Post #2107 (ISO) » Wed Nov 16, 2011 7:44 am

Post by Herodotus »

In post 2102, mockingjaye wrote:If you are town, go back and read Espeonage's ISO, and look at his interactions with Kanye. Especially the time when he says something about his vote on Kanye finally being serious--like when it looked like Kanye was the lynch, right before Feysal managed to shift everyone onto Peregrine. Regfan--you have mentioned that I should have been more proactive in my case about Espeonage. Well, a lot of my feelings about him were connected with Kanye flipping scum, so I wanted Kanye dead first. Since Esp/Marg flipped scum, those feelings are already cemented. In Esp's ISO, he clearly tries to justify Kanye's actions for a period, warns him away from Gandalf, and finally busses him. I absolutely feel that they are on the same team, and if I had the power to make Kanye dead, I would.
Your theory looks a lot more reasonable now.
But Espeonage was quick to attack the D2 wagon on him. I think he more likely saw it as a mislynch.

In post 2102, mockingjaye wrote:If you are town, go back and look at the end of the day wagon on Kanye/Vitamin. With six votes on Kanye, three are confirmed to everyone, and four are confirmed to at least three of us (me, Andy, Amrun). I'm reading Amrun as town, so the only "iffy" slot I see on that wagon is Andy's.

If Kanye is town, why would there only be one potential mafia-scum on his wagon? (And I'm speaking from my perspective, which will be verified when I flip town.) Mind you, this is the
second
end-of-day that saw Kanye vs. Flipped Town, and given the apparent willingness of people to actually vote for Kanye, I don't see why scum wouldn't take glorious advantage of a Kanye mislynch rather than advance yet another counter-wagon late in the day.
I revisited my earlier analysis of the kanyek wagons. There have been a lot of revealed townies.

D1:
perev, willow
, mockingj,
wraith
,
ooba
,
sunandmoon
, gut,
feysal
,
espeonage


D2: (
wraith
,
furcolow
,
gandalf
, (
ooba
, eliber, (mockingj, andrius, (
willow
, magna

Didn't vote for him:
VitaminR
, MastermindOS, dekes,
spyrex
,
myself


Taking the above out of context, I could see elibereth and kanyek as buddies if Andrius, Magna, and you are all town.

In post 2102, mockingjaye wrote:I had a feeling that if Nacho came in the game and attacked me, he is town. This is because if he were scum, I have a feeling he would want to distance himself from my mislynch given the suspicion that is already surrounding his slot. Therefore, I have moved him into my town reads. Prior to this, I had moved him into my top five scum list based on Elli's play.
If Sun and Moon was convinced not to shoot you, that would make it more likely they would shoot him. He needs someone to push in front of the vig.
What you just posted above is the twisted logic that leads townies to think that scum are townies.

I think mockingjaye is town. Amrun, rhetorical question - do you think that scum would write something like what I just quoted from mockingjaye? If not, then she's a bad target.

In post 2102, mockingjaye wrote:I said in my last post that I thought my wagon was scum driven (hello, Kanye and Regfan, yes I WAS talking about you), but there is no way that everyone in that first group of four would be scum, and if there are two scum on the wagon, then the one or two left would probably split themselves between a variety of other options, i.e., tacitly defending me as town. Therefore, I'm thinking
Herod
is scum.
So to summarize, Nacho is town because he wants a townie lynched/vigged, and I'm scum because I'm one of a few people who don't support that? Also note that I didn't tacitly defend you, I called you a reasonable candidate for lynching until you started dropping towntells again.

In post 2102, mockingjaye wrote:And guess what, way back in his second post he says this:
Herod wrote:Kanyek, maybe? I don't have a big scum read on him, but I'd be willing to sheep onto a wagon.
I think I explained why, but in case I didn't, it was because a lot of my town reads, including you, wanted to lynch him.

In post 2102, mockingjaye wrote:
Herod wrote:Not sure about Espeonage. I think he's just playing poorly.
His vig list in his ISO 18 is also a lovely thing. (I wouldn't have even noticed this at all if Ludi hadn't made it a point against me, but here Herod has Esp on that list, after 2 town--and before Esp's one-shot BP had been taken by Amrun's vig attmept on N2.)
I stand by the statement that Espeonage was playing poorly, even if he was scum, because he made us want to lynch him. :mrgreen:
You can't conclude anything from my wanting Espeonage shot at the end of Day 2 without considering my first post of Day 3. He wasn't lynch-immune.
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Post Post #2108 (ISO) » Wed Nov 16, 2011 7:47 am

Post by Herodotus »

Oh I said I would comment on Feysal. I believe he has to say whatever he thinks will keep him alive until he can shoot Turin tonight, so the SK claim is probably a lie. But even if it isn't, lynching an SK is okay.
Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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Post Post #2109 (ISO) » Wed Nov 16, 2011 8:12 am

Post by Herodotus »

In post 2098, Amrun wrote:aw i wanted nacho to be scum but he isn't

No, he probably is.

So Nacho is posting a paragraph about each player as he evaluates them, and is only through a few people so far? Note how he declares that Mastermind's attacks on Magna were inaccurate, but didn't put up a paragraph about Magna. Has he already decided Magna is town? Why wouldn't that paragraph precede the one on Mastermind?

VOTE: Feysal
That's L-2. Andrius should coordinate the timing of the hammer with faramina.
Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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Post Post #2110 (ISO) » Wed Nov 16, 2011 8:16 am

Post by Regfan »

Andrius is no longer in contact with Faramina from what I gathered and I'm still waiting for the new mouthpiece to come forward and post
Faraday
Minas list of reads before we even consider ending the day. I also want Nachos thoughts on every player in the game posted too.
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Post Post #2111 (ISO) » Wed Nov 16, 2011 8:36 am

Post by Herodotus »

In post 2110, Regfan wrote:Andrius is no longer in contact with Faramina from what I gathered and I'm still waiting for the new mouthpiece to come forward and post
Faraday
Minas list of reads before we even consider ending the day. I also want Nachos thoughts on every player in the game posted too.

1. I see that now, in Andrius's post.

2. There's no guarantee that there is one.

3. Okay. UNVOTE:
Just because a majority of a group of people decide it's okay doesn't mean it's not murder. - Cobblerfone
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Post Post #2112 (ISO) » Wed Nov 16, 2011 10:21 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

@MoI: Posting from my phone, but the answer to your last question is most emphatically YES. That is what I have been trying to tell you this entire day.
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Post Post #2113 (ISO) » Wed Nov 16, 2011 10:23 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Does anyone know how long seraph periods are? There should be a reasonable amount of time we can wait to determine whether or not a new mouthpiece has been established.
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Post Post #2114 (ISO) » Wed Nov 16, 2011 12:13 pm

Post by kanyeknowsbest »

i agree with getting rid of feysal at this point despite how badly i want to lynch mockingjaye. this post may be taken as intent to vote feysal.

question: what are we going to do about furc? he clearly has zero intention of aiding town and will be a guaranteed liability if we keep him around until it comes down to the wire. with mockingjaye, andrius, and elli all having a solid chance of being scum the idea of wasting a day lynching furc is not exactly one that i relish.
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Post Post #2115 (ISO) » Wed Nov 16, 2011 1:42 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Unless we get evidence that Furc is lying and/or has a killing role, I don't think he's a top priority until we get some more scum down. But you do make a good point that we have to deal with him at some point.
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Post Post #2116 (ISO) » Wed Nov 16, 2011 3:18 pm

Post by Herodotus »

Hopefully he disappears when Feysal dies.

As I understand, faramina took the last action yesterday, meaning AGM/Thor was first today. Magna said they each have 36 hours. What isn't clear is whether they can act at any time during their turn, or if their action resolves when their 36 hours are finished. We need to know that to know if we are supposed to hammer during faramina's 36 hour period, or after it ends.
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Post Post #2117 (ISO) » Wed Nov 16, 2011 7:24 pm

Post by Plum »

Image


VOTE COUNT #4.6Nachomamma8 - 1 - Gut
Feysal -
5
- Empking, Andrius, MagnaofIllusion, Mastermind of Sin, Magister Ludi
mockingjaye - 2 - kanyeknowsbest, Regfan
kanyeknowsbest - 2 - mockingjaye, Furcolow
Sun and Moon - 1 - Nachomamma8

Not Voting (3): Sun and Moon, Feysal, Herodotus

With 14 alive it will take 8 votes to lynch.

First post should now be fixed with replacements listed properly.

Andrius is being prodded.

Deadline for Day 4 will be in approximately (but no fewer than) 8 days and will be exactly determined soon.
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Post Post #2118 (ISO) » Wed Nov 16, 2011 9:33 pm

Post by Sun and Moon »

Vote: Feysal
(L-2)

Current vig candidates are furcolow, herodotus, nacho, and mockingjaye.
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Post Post #2119 (ISO) » Wed Nov 16, 2011 10:01 pm

Post by Magister Ludi »

Regfan's 2110 makes a lot of sense. It sort of looks like Nacho posted a little to draw heat off, and then plans to just dodge and duck around until the days ends without doing much of anything.
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Post Post #2120 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2011 12:16 am

Post by Empking »

Yeah, I think makes more sense as an automatic vig possibility rather than a lynch.
Plus, if you guys want to make a point, skip the walls, because everyone else in the game does as well. - Magister Ludi
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Post Post #2121 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2011 12:22 am

Post by Amrun »

oh and also andrius for vigging.
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Post Post #2122 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2011 12:23 am

Post by Empking »

In post 2120, Empking wrote:Yeah, I think
Furc
makes more sense as an automatic vig possibility rather than a lynch.
Plus, if you guys want to make a point, skip the walls, because everyone else in the game does as well. - Magister Ludi
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Cassandra Complex
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Mastermind of Sin
Cassandra Complex
Cassandra Complex
Posts: 15163
Joined: October 30, 2004
Location: Sleeping with the Godfather's Daughter

Post Post #2123 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2011 2:59 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

In post 2121, Amrun wrote:oh and also andrius for vigging.


This.
Permanent V/LA.
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MagnaofIllusion
MagnaofIllusion
has been killed Night 1
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MagnaofIllusion
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Post Post #2124 (ISO) » Thu Nov 17, 2011 3:32 am

Post by MagnaofIllusion »

@Amrun
– please narrow down you Vig list to 3 names please. In the case I do get back my Cop latent I don’t want to duplicate efforts and possible waste the one good shot we have at a final use of dual abilities before one of us bites it.

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Empking wrote:Yeah, I think Furc makes more sense as an automatic vig possibility rather than a lynch.


Um, not. Not tonight. We are already removing a claimed third party. We should NOT reduce the possibility of hitting scum with Amrun’s shot by specifically going for a Furc shot. Now if Furc dies with Feysal this is hardly an issue but if he doesn't it's a bad shot IMO.

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Herod wrote:As I understand, faramina took the last action yesterday, meaning AGM/Thor was first today. Magna said they each have 36 hours. What isn't clear is whether they can act at any time during their turn, or if their action resolves when their 36 hours are finished. We need to know that to know if we are supposed to hammer during faramina's 36 hour period, or after it ends.


Herod is correct in that they work on an alternating 36 hours cycle. What I don’t know for certain is how things resolve. My gut (based on things I have observed) says that they have 36 hours to submit an action and it resolves at the end / at deadline / at lynch. Given apparently we are completely out of contact with them I suggest we lynch Feysal after 72 hours from this post. That guarentees that Minaday gets one more action but doesn’t extend the day needlessly.

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Kayne wrote:question: what are we going to do about furc? he clearly has zero intention of aiding town and will be a guaranteed liability if we keep him around until it comes down to the wire. with mockingjaye, andrius, and elli all having a solid chance of being scum the idea of wasting a day lynching furc is not exactly one that i relish.


Putting the cart before the horse here. We have no idea what happens to him when we lynch Feysal. I have a theory floating around in the back of my mind regarding Furc but let’s see what happens when we lynch Feysal before getting worked up yet.


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MoS wrote:@MoI: Posting from my phone, but the answer to your last question is most emphatically YES. That is what I have been trying to tell you this entire day.


Really? Let me reference you to the following links related to Mafia Dating Game 2 –

Farside’s Sign-up Thread – Note that it clearly states in no uncertain terms that the Mafia gets two kills during the night right in Post 0.

MoS post 702

MoS post 716

Here are two posts where you explicitly make the effort to show you don’t know that the Mafia didn’t have two kills despite the fact that it was clearly disclosed in the sign-up and the whole premise of the first game. And you got at least one Town read for this ‘mix-up’ (from StephanB). And it’s a recent game so “oops, I forgot” don’t cut it.

And you were scum.

So you are lying when you say you would never try to fake lack of knowledge as scum.

And thus the whole premise that you could only be ‘inattentive’ in making those ‘mistakes’ in your opening post is blown completely apart. As is the WIFOM of “why would I as scum specifically post things that are easily refuted”.

And why I think you are a great lynch / Vig candidate. Kthxbye!!!

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"I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"

Pretty much Geriatric game restricted at this point ... unless there are players I REALLY want to play with.

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