The Children of Húrin Mafia (GREAT REVIVAL)

[Magister Ludi]

I liked you Feysal. Really, If you had shot where town wanted yesterday, I don't think you would be getting lynched today. I wish you had been given a town role pm, because your clarity of thought is definitely better than a lot of other players.

different lives, different times, I guess.

[Andrius]

There is literally zero motive for Andrius to play the game

YOU SHOULD KNOW THERE IS ALWAYS HOPE

I've been busy this week. Reading and crap tomorrow I'm going to bed now.

[Herodotus]

Agree with Magister Ludi. I would prefer that Feysal win rather than lose; if he hadn't claimed otherwise I would probably think he was town, he managed to outlive 3 of his targets, and his post helped lynch espeonage. That deserves respect.
But I expect my win condition to be better served if he is unable to kill Turin tonight.

More seriously, why do you think that lynching me would be okay even if I was a serial killer? In that case, you should recognize that I have given up, and at least consider my offer. If genuine, it could result in town gain.

If I believed you were a SK, I think I'd still want to lynch you, though not as much. As long as you were in the game, the town couldn't win, so there wouldn't be a way to let you win with the town. The mafia don't seem to want to kill you, so we would have to lynch or vig you eventually. Giving you one extra night would provide a chance that you would shoot scum, but also a chance that you would shoot town. You might even kill Sunandmoon as a SK, because masons are so dangerous to SK's and out of concern for being vigged.

[Gut]

because masons are so dangerous to SK's

Want to elaborate on that one?

[mockingjaye]

Nacho: Looking forward to the IOU, since when I read your list of reads, you pretty much said you thought everyone was town except for me and Herod, and maybe Andy, but you weren't so sure about him.

Regfan:

1.
Post 550/ISO 3—When I first pointed out what I saw about Esp.
Post 822/ISO 9—One question, repeated in 1054/ISO 11

Okay, you’re right. I thought I had questioned him a few more times rather than just mentioned him, but I hadn’t. I remember I was going somewhere with the question, because he said it in relation to moving his vote to Pere’s wagon, and I thought he was just putting on a show about doing so. Because he was lurking, I didn’t get to follow up with where I was going with him. He never responded to things I said about him or even acknowledged me, so I wasn’t able to.

2.
I’m going to say this part one more time. Understanding someone else’s argument doesn’t mean I have to believe my own is weaker. I spent a good deal of time thinking through that entire thing, mainly because I didn’t see where SpyreX was coming from at first, but even when I did work through it, and saw his PoV, I still thought his argument hinged too much on WIFOM and that I was basing my reads on all of Kanye’s posting on D1 and D2 which I believe is very scummy. I then acknowledged Spy’s argument and rejected it in favor of my own. I don’t care if you think it was too weak—the point is, I DIDN’T. It was what I kept coming back to, and what I couldn’t shake out of my head, and thus why I rejected the counter. (And in regards to the whole argument thing, I’m going to give you a concrete real world example of why you’re wrong: I have had many discussions with a friend who has a different belief system than mine own. Just because I understand what he’s saying doesn’t mean I have to stop believing what I believe or that I have to develop a sense of uncertainty about it. Your statement here is fallacious on all sorts of levels, and I think you’re just trying to use it to fluff up your case against me.)

3.

I didn’t say people were calling for his lynch—I said he wasn’t universally considered town.

There is a BIG difference, and once again, you're phrasing your questions/comments to/about me in such as way to make it look like I said or meant something I didn't. I would be HAPPY to point out to you how many people voiced uncertainty over MoI’s alignment. In addition to my own speculation, here are what others said about MoI’s alignment on D3 (which you claim to have read but didn't see anything of the sort):

Amrun—Post 1481—Says MoI most likely scum
Dekes—Post 1480—Asked Seraphs to confirm MoI-Turin
Ooba—1503—Suggests alterna-lynch to test MoI’s claim
Amrun—1508—Says she doesn’t know how ANYONE can believe MoI above her and that his claim doesn’t even make sense for Turin
Herod: 1516—Could see MoI as a lyncher
Feysal: 1532—says MoI is fair game if he doesn’t die if we don’t lynch S&M
Amrun 1537—Asks Seraphs if they can confirm MoI’S name
Amrun 1541—Says she thinks MoI is scum b/c she doesn’t think they are both Turin
Dekes 1557—Doesn’t really want to believe there are two Turins
Ludi 1640—Thinks MoI is a lyncher
Wisp: 1646—Thinks MoI could be a lyncher
MoS 1656—Suggests AGM-scum seraph could have changed MoI’s alignment when he “de-neighborized” him as an explanation for the twists of D3
Ludi: 1666—“It is growing on me that MoI is some scum or third-party lyncher” and “has no idea what [alignment] MoI is.”
Herod: 1695—Doesn’t think MoI is scum, but could be third-party lyncher or cult

4.
If you find wagon analysis trivial, then you should look at why several other people are wanting to lynch me—for staying on Kanye and then “bussing” Marg (which I didn’t). By the way, to all those people: the day didn’t end with my vote on her, and the only one who had any comment about me after the vote was Ludi, who had me on his vig list after that. Why didn’t someone attack me then instead of waiting until after Kanye brought up his “evidence” that Esp couldn’t have been the first scum on his wagon, so I had to be the only other possibility.

5.
It’s not illogical for me to think scum are pushing a mislynch. Not illogical at all. I get why town might have misread me, and I certainly don't think all of the people who want me dead are scum. That doesn’t change the fact that scum actually know I’m town, and that scum are going to happily seize an opportunity for an easy mislynch, and before they succeed, I am going to say exactly what I think about who they are.

6.
Why don’t you go reread that section and see what you come up with, then.

[Gut]

Code: Select all

[post=550][/post]
or
[post=822]this is a link[/post]
is much better than Post 550.

Post 550
or
this is a link
is much better than Post 550.

[Herodotus]

because masons are so dangerous to SK's

Want to elaborate on that one?

An SK (or any other lone scum) can never win while there are 2 living townies. If there are 2 townies who both know the other to be town, they will never vote each other. The SK will lose if they don't kill at least one of them before it's too late. (This applies more to guaranteed town masons, but their roles seem to give them some confidence in the other so it still applies partially.)
The smaller the scumgroup, the less tolerant they can afford to be of confirmed townies. A large group might leave a confirmed innocent alive if that innocent is playing poorly or has no abilities, and endgame them.

[Gut]

because masons are so dangerous to SK's

Want to elaborate on that one?

An SK (or any other lone scum) can never win while there are 2 living townies. If there are 2 townies who both know the other to be town, they will never vote each other. The SK will lose if they don't kill at least one of them before it's too late. (This applies more to guaranteed town masons, but their roles seem to give them some confidence in the other so it still applies partially.)
The smaller the scumgroup, the less tolerant they can afford to be of confirmed townies. A large group might leave a confirmed innocent alive if that innocent is playing poorly or has no abilities, and endgame them.

Right, what about this situation specifically makes you think the masons would make any sense as a kill choice for feysal SK? I don't care about generalities.

[Amrun]

What was this in relation to? (In particular, which flip?)

In relation to the Espeonage clip, clearly. I think it was clear in context but you probably read this in iso.

[mockingjaye]

Gut: Thank you. I haven't ever known how to do that.

From my last post: links to posts:

1.
Post 550, Post 822

Also in regards to something I said to MoI in Post 2140 (point 3), I talked about quite a few people and questioned quite a few people on D1 and D2. Granted my focus was on Kanye, but I was actively engaged in the game and with other players, which is something that everyone has left out when saying I've only talked about Kanye. MoS said a while back that my posts make his eyes bleed, and Ludi said he read my ISO with "ctrl F Kanye," so I want to know if anyone has even bothered to read anything I've said, or if you're all just looking at votes or for what I said about you personally in deciding that I'm scum tunneling on Kanye/bussing Esp or whatever, because if that's what you're doing, you're missing a whole lot.


3.
Post 1481, Post 1487, Post 1503, Post 1508, Post 1516, Post 1532, Post 1537, Post 1541, Post 1557,Post 1640, Post 1646, Post 1656, Post 1666, Post 1695


Also, in regards to my second point from my last post:

Regfan has been bringing up this quote and has been working very hard to make it a key point against me. He is basically saying that he thinks that by admitting I understand Spy's argument, I should be somewhat less convinced of my own. I disagree, and I think Regfan is trying to make something out of this that just isn't there to try to justify a scum read on me. The underlined part is my reasoning as to why I disagree with Spy; Regfan is pretty much saying I am just making it up because it's too weak to be true. The fact is, that's my direct counter to Spy's argument, but the second paragraph is a list of some of the reasons I feel that my conclusion here is a valid one.

Post 1297 Okay, so in writing out my argument about why I disagree with SpyreX’s point about Kanye and the D1 wagons that I wrote myself into understanding if not completely agreeing with his argument. I have been reading a lot of today’s reactions to Kanye as being “Save Kanye” and thinking he might be a scum PR, but that wouldn’t explain why scum wouldn’t work harder on a Feysal lynch yesterday; they probably could have pushed it through. It definitely makes sense,

but I still also think it makes lots of sense that he is scum and the third-party Feysal lynch didn’t push through because of people’s commitments to stances early in the game and that Pere offered them a safety net to eschew all obligations to either wagon

. So yes, it's a viable reasoning, but it's also still conjecture, and I'm not convinced enough to move my vote.

The fact that the wagon is again stalled on Kanye is still bothering me, and I also have very negative feelings about how Kanye has played, and how he has interacted with me in particular, because I think I gave him lots of opportunities to change my mind in D1 and he didn’t even try, and his whole “either both or neither” comment today really bothers me, as does his timing and reactive rather than proactive play. I think it’s equally logical that he is scum based on these things and the fact that a lot of the defense (self and otherwise) of Kanye is tied up in speculation of other possibilities rather than in more concrete evidences. I'm sticking with my read here.

[Herodotus]

What was this in relation to? (In particular, which flip?)

In relation to the Espeonage clip, clearly. I think it was clear in context but you probably read this in iso.

Not in ISO. The reason I unsure was because there were three flips, espeonage/smargaret, spyrex, and willowisp.

[Herodotus]

because masons are so dangerous to SK's

Want to elaborate on that one?

An SK (or any other lone scum) can never win while there are 2 living townies. If there are 2 townies who both know the other to be town, they will never vote each other. The SK will lose if they don't kill at least one of them before it's too late. (This applies more to guaranteed town masons, but their roles seem to give them some confidence in the other so it still applies partially.)
The smaller the scumgroup, the less tolerant they can afford to be of confirmed townies. A large group might leave a confirmed innocent alive if that innocent is playing poorly or has no abilities, and endgame them.

Right, what about this situation specifically makes you think the masons would make any sense as a kill choice for feysal SK? I don't care about generalities.

I was thinking in terms of generalities, not specifics.
I can give you a couple ideas specific to this game, though I don't see any point to your questioning:
1. If both players who have claimed the name "turin" were dead and feysal was still alive, it would be evidence of his SK-ness (odd that a player would feel the need to prove that they are an SK).
2. With Amrun specifically, it would only be a matter of time before he would shoot Feysal, if Feysal wasn't lynched.
3. If they trust each other enough, a Magister/Amrun voting bloc would auto-lynch Feysal at endgame. So Feysal-SK would eventually lose if he didn't either kill at least one of them, get lucky and see the mafia kill at least one of them, or convince them not to trust each other.

So why did you ask all this about a hypothetical SK's future kills?

[Furcolow]

I wonder if the Town Seraphs know how screwed they are if they lose Feysal and I

[Regfan]

2. I’m going to say this part one more time. Understanding someone else’s argument doesn’t mean I have to believe my own is weaker. I spent a good deal of time thinking through that entire thing, mainly because I didn’t see where SpyreX was coming from at first, but even when I did work through it, and saw his PoV, I still thought his argument hinged too much on WIFOM and that I was basing my reads on all of Kanye’s posting on D1 and D2 which I believe is very scummy. I then acknowledged Spy’s argument and rejected it in favor of my own. I don’t care if you think it was too weak—the point is, I DIDN’T. It was what I kept coming back to, and what I couldn’t shake out of my head, and thus why I rejected the counter. (And in regards to the whole argument thing, I’m going to give you a concrete real world example of why you’re wrong: I have had many discussions with a friend who has a different belief system than mine own. Just because I understand what he’s saying doesn’t mean I have to stop believing what I believe or that I have to develop a sense of uncertainty about it. Your statement here is fallacious on all sorts of levels, and I think you’re just trying to use it to fluff up your case against me.)

Comparing suspicion towards a player in a game of mafia to moral or religious beliefs outside of the game is a complete and utter joke. Religious beliefs are generally very strongly held and therefore understanding another persons viewpoint is likely to have little to no impact at all upon someones opinion whereas a mafia game revolves around dealing and using whatever little information you have to decipher someones real intentions or motives. I

still

don't understand how someone can be so strongly convinced in a certain belief in mafia (Such as Kanye wagon stalling makes him scum no matter what) that another logical viewpoints (Such as SpyreXs) bared no impact on their thoughts even after reading through it and acknowledging that it makes sense.

3.

I didn’t say people were calling for his lynch—I said he wasn’t universally considered town.

There is a BIG difference, and once again, you're phrasing your questions/comments to/about me in such as way to make it look like I said or meant something I didn't.

If no one is calling for MoIs lynch then he's in no immediate threat therefore time is best spent elsewhere and your defense of him was unneeded. As for your list of people showing doubt in MoI, most of it is horse shit. I've already acknowledged that Amrun did suspect MoI mostly through survival and remove Fesyals suspicion due to him being a claimed third party. That leaves what, Ludi, Dekes, Wisp, MoS and Herod. That's five players only that showed uncertainty of MoIs strong town status and neither of them thought he was scum but rather a third party with none of them showing any signs of willingess or desire to lynching him.

5. It’s not illogical for me to think scum are pushing a mislynch. Not illogical at all. I get why town might have misread me, and I certainly don't think all of the people who want me dead are scum. That doesn’t change the fact that scum actually know I’m town, and that scum are going to happily seize an opportunity for an easy mislynch, and before they succeed, I am going to say exactly what I think about who they are.

It is illogical, an experienced mafia player should know full well that jumping and grasping at conclusions such as "Scum are pushing my lynch, there must be scum on my lynch!" especially when the number of votes cast against you is as small as four is reaching. As for reading into that section as to why I initially started suspecting Kanye is going to have to wait until I get home from a family lunch event but I will get around to it as soon as I can. Will that said though this is likely to be one of the last walls I respond back to you with, I'm getting stuck focusing on one player and it's leading me to not paying as much attention as I'd like to elsewhere.

[mockingjaye]

Regfan, the ONE thing I agree with you about is that this is a time waster, and the insults you are peppering your comments with are completely uncalled for, so I don't particularly WANT to talk to you anymore, either.

1. I wasn't comparing my belief in the game to a moral/religious belief; I was giving you a

real world

example of why saying that I need to abandon a belief just because I understand someone else's belief is fallacious and that your argument is based on a fallacy.

I don't care if it is a game or not; within the parameters of this game, I think Kanye is scum. I have reasons that I think this. I thought about Spy's reasons that he didn't think this. I still think I'm right. Why is this so difficult for you to accept? Would you say that Spy had to change his mind if he acknowledged my argument and yet held firmly that he was right and I was wrong? (OH WAIT. HE DID. Way back when I first made it. Post 371) No. You're talking like this to me because you think you can get away with it.

For the record, it ISN'T JUST THE WAGONS STALLING. Geez, go back and read all the things I've said about him. You're the one who is now trying to stick my whole argument about Kanye onto the wagon thing. I already told you I thought Spy's reasoning was tied up in WIFOM, and that I took my own counter-WIFOM and all of the reasons I had in addition to that and my mind wasn't changed.

By the way, you are spending an inordinate amount of time trying to turn my refusal to change my mind into something sinister in regards to someone you claim to have a scumread on, too.

2. You are the one who tried to turn my original comment that MoI wasn't universally considered town into me saying that he was a lynch candidate. YOU are the one who asked for a list of people expressing that they were unsure as to his alignment. I answered your question and gave you that list. I also said I was on the list, too. And here again, you're implying that I said people wanted to lynch him, and I DIDN'T. I said he wasn't universally considered town, and HE WASN'T. Lyncher, Third-Party, Cult...none of those things are town.

YOU'RE the one making this into a mountain out of a nothing. My original statement was that there was a lot of confusion flying about on D3, and I WAS confused, and I was trying to work out MY thoughts, and I thought by sharing them in thread that MAYBE I could help direct a more logical conversation that the one that was happening. I wasn't "defending" anyone, either. I was sowing how I got to the place that I thought they were both town and asking for thoughts and feedback to my thoughts in case I was just completely off-base. Feysel responded to my post; he was the ONLY one who responded to my confusion, and he admitted he was confused, too, so SOMEONE got that was my intention.

3. Out of fourteen people left alive, and knowing two of them are definitely third party, and no less than Ludi, MoI, Gut, Kanye, MoS, You, Amrun, and Nacho calling me scum or saying I'm a good vote, then yes, I think it's a logical conclusion that scum are seizing a chance to get a mislynch. And gee, my number one scumread the entire game is now calling for my lynch based on ONE vote count that doesn't even demonstrate how many people were originally on his wagon and hopped off between the time I joined and the time the day ended. Yes, I think he's scum. I also think that your going round and round and deliberately misunderstanding almost everything I say is also scummy, and you are ALSO on my wagon.

I don't even know what your goal is with me except to try to paint me as being an illogical moron by deliberately misunderstanding or misrepresenting almost everything I say, so I don't even know how to respond to you anymore because you're not even trying to understand what I'm saying, and it's really very clear.

[Gut]

I don't think scum would be this blindly tunneled on someone who is generally considered to be town.

I've done this exact thing as scum. It's almost certainly not best play but it's entirely plausible. Scum might also not feel uncertain as regards how to back off in a natural-looking manner.

Gut: Thank you. I haven't ever known how to do that.

It's a fairly new tag.

[Gut]

I was thinking in terms of generalities, not specifics.

Why?

[Regfan]

@MockingJaye:

1. Think what you want, but I don't believe I've been 'insulting' at all. I've already gone into how your real world example is uncomparitable to this game and don't particularly want to go over it again. Furthermore I'm not 'fighting' your scum-read on Kanye but rather the strength of it and the fact that you haven't waivered on it at all despite valid points behind brought up as to why he could potentially be town and trust me I have read all your points and arguments over Kanye.

2. Now you can state that I'm making a mountain over a molehill all you want but my point in regards to this has always been the same; that I find your defence of MoI yesterday as an attempt to seem active and participating without actually doing all that much and your explanation over why it was needed hasn't convinced me or changed my mind about this at all. Lets run through how this actually happened again:

- I say that your posts include element of filler posting in Post #1933.
- You say that your posts aren't filler at all in Post #1948.
- I say that your focus towards MoI reads as an attempt to seem actively participating while really doing close to nothing in Post #1951.
- You say that the MoI issue was up in the air and you wanted to vent your thoughts as well as mimimalize confusion at the time in Post #2049.
- I say that MoI wasn't really suspected at all and that attempting to mimalize confusion isn't a relevant use of your time in Post #2060.
- You say that he wasn't universally town and there was uncertainty to his alignment in Post #2154.
- I say that there was no intention or danger of him being lynched and that your defense was unneeded in Post #2163.

3. You're insinuating that there isn't alternate mslynch bait in this game and that you're apparently important enough that the scum would be likely to all jump and push for your mslynch, that's a large assumption to make in a game like this where for instance I suspect roughly five players and I doubt they're all scum.

My goal has been really simple this entire time, I've been trying to understand where you're coming from and why your scum-read on Kanye is so strong and unwaivering and I still don't understand it. That attached with the leaps you've been making in regards to 'Scum on my wagon' and 'You're misrepping me!' haven't made me feel any better about you at all. I want to step back from this game for a day or two and re-look at everything because honestly at this point this argument or debate with you has taken up majority of my time in regards to this game. I did read back at page 53 and what threw me over the edge about Kanye at the time was his unexplained jump on Vitamir and his survivalist nature attached with it.

[Regfan]

That'll be my last wall in a while, promise. I'm going to take roughly 24 hours of but I'll state a summarization of my thoughts before a lynch occurs and I'm really hoping someone can get hold of Faraday for him to post his reads before then as well.

[Feysal]

I've already acknowledged that Amrun did suspect MoI mostly through survival and remove Feysal's suspicion due to him being a claimed third party.

This is something I have heard before, yet I cannot understand it. Why would me being third party make my suspicions irrelevant? I can understand how I would as a

specific

third party claim suspicions that furthered my own goals, like if I was a lyncher trying to have my target killed, or a jester trying to cause havoc. Perhaps you have reason to ignore my suspicions because you believe still that I would need either Amrun or MoI to die before me, but you don't have a reason to distrust third parties in general.

Think about what my motivation would be as a serial killer. I would need everyone to die, so it would not matter to me in the least who died. Any and all deaths would serve my win condition. However, I would still need to survive, and trying to genuinely scumhunt would aid me in that, not to mention I'm inclined to do that anyway. You will have proof of my role soon enough, and when you do, you will not be able to dismiss my suspicions so easily. I don't claim to understand why MoI would false claim Túrin as scum, only to be counterclaimed, but that claim is still far from confirmed. Also, the fact that many people seem to trust MoI means nothing to me, as I have seen him establish trust as scum in every game I've played with him.

There is something else I have to say on this, but I'll save that for my final thoughts post.

That'll be my last wall in a while, promise. I'm going to take roughly 24 hours of but I'll state a summarization of my thoughts before a lynch occurs and I'm really hoping someone can get hold of Faraday for him to post his reads before then as well.

The time when MoI called for my lynch is now, so you may not have those 24 hours.

Given apparently we are completely out of contact with them I suggest we lynch Feysal after 72 hours from this post.

The 72 hours are now up, and I'm here, typing out some final thoughts to share. Where is everyone else? Am I to be lynched, or am I not?

[Amrun]

I'm behind; sorry. Early turkey day with the in-laws right now, so I will either get to this later tonight or tomorrow night. Apologies. Hols are busy.

[kanyeknowsbest]

v/la until tomorrow night

[Herodotus]

It might be useful to wait for another cycle.

That way, Magna can check the timing with a trial run. If he loses the ability ~36 hours later, faramina can grant it again at the 72 hour mark. Or, faramina can pull someone into the QT to arrange a time for hammering.

[Nachomamma8]

If I understand correctly, this "floaty period" was Day 3 in which Gut proposed the gambit with Empking that you commented on, defended a townie, and lynched scum. How is that floaty?

Proposing the gambit was townie, yes, but it didn't do much for in thread action.
And there is a massive difference in defending a townie and lynching scum as opposed to what actually occurred, which is Gut mentioned that a townie was town and voted for scum. The aggressive, active, scum-searching is more or less what I'm looking for, less of the accuracy.

@Nachom: Do you believe that any mafia voted for either of Sun and Moon or Empking yesterday?

Maybe, probably, why do I care?

Mockingjaye, your main concern is that I have too few scum reads. This is true. I'm looking at some of my townreads and reevaluating, slowly. What I meant for the IOU to apply on is explaining that kanye read... I'm afraid the small amount of scum reads is more of an i owe everyone sort of deal...

[Furcolow]

There are likely 4 scum left, and without 3rd party like Feysal and I siding with the town, you all are going to be screwed
I have confirmed Feysal isn't scum, unless he was recruited by smargaret's slot