The Children of Húrin Mafia (GREAT REVIVAL)

[mockingjaye]

I haven't even thought about him in a while. I'll try to read him again before the thread is locked but I am working on another game right now, too. Why is he your #1 defender-suspect? Also, what do you think of Regfan?

[Magister Ludi]

Holy shit a kanye sighting

[kanyeknowsbest]

i had a scum read on him early on that has sort ofvsimmered in the background for awhile. i saw his switch to suddenly "kanyes just being retarded!" as odd. also he fits nicely into a mos/moi buddy theory i have. if you are town theres his sudden switch to mjaye is town right before an imminent looking lynch that is similar to his switch on me (guessing on the timing hard to check right now but i think my suspicions would be confirmed if i checked)

hi ludi : ]

[Magister Ludi]

Faradays reads on Nacho were null.

[Gut]

I was out of the house from like 10pm est untill 430am est, no idea wtf faraday was smoking.

Hero, you never answered my question. Why were you using generic reasons instead of specific ones when you did?

[Regfan]

Just got home and I'm hoping Plum doesn't wake up for a while so I have a few good hours to respond to Mjaye one last time and have my reads posted.

[kanyeknowsbest]

@mjaye realized i didnt reply abt regfan. i have residual scum reads from dekes play around the amrun claim. i need to reevaluate regfan.

[Regfan]

Mockingjaye, I do understand your scum-read on Kanye, what I don't understand is the incredible amount of strength you have in the read and it's what I've had trouble comprehending this entire time. Secondly, you're using elements of circular reasoning in regards to your reads. I'm having trouble finding the words to explain this but the best way I can put is that you're backing up your statement of 'There's scum on my wagon' by stating that your scum-reads are on your wagon and backing up your scum-reads by claiming that they're on your wagon.

With all that said I went back and re-read #1948 that Faraday suggested and I can see where he's coming from, that attached with your early claim are making me start to doubt my scum-read on you. I really want to get a full re-read of this day phase done overnight.

[Feysal]

So I have been hammered. Good thing I checked the thread, I wanted to post that final thoughts post I've been promising.

First of all, I

am

a serial killer. I don't have, and never did have, reason to specifically kill either Amrun or MoI. Last night I killed Will-o-wisp, who I considered more likely to be scum than Dekes, and I believed only a scum kill had any chance of helping me live. Him turning up a bodyguard was a freak accident which made you all suspicious, and rightly so, I admit that. This time though it was just a coincidence. Even then I saw the chance to use the situation to town advantage, by using the WIFOM about my true win condition to protect both Amrun and MoI, but only kanye and Gut even considered letting me live for one more night. MoI demanded that I be lynched to ensure that at least one of him and Amrun survives the night, while in fact if the scum counted on me killing one of you for them you could both have lived. Ironically, by lynching me one of you claimed Túrins has effectively committed suicide. Thrown yourselves upon your own sword as it were. Talk about fitting.

There is also a piece of information I have been saving, since revealing it would have made my lynch even more certain than it already was. Now I have no more reason to, so it is time. I may not have proof of certain roles being town aligned, but I have something else. I possess evidence that Amrun told the truth about how and why she was millerized, which gives additional insight into MoI's alignment as well.

It has become clear to me that there is a kind of symmetry between myself and Amrun. Both of us have the same kill flavor, so clearly our kills were intended to be mixed up. Amrun is compulsive, and so am I, if you did not guess that already. Amrun claimed to be descending, which causes her to receive penalties for town kills, and I am ascending. I have received boons for any successful kills. I first gained a one-shot night kill immunity which then became permanent. You may think I was hoping to gain something from my kill tonight to help me survive tomorrow, and I was curious about what I would receive, but what I needed to win this was lynch immunity, and common sense says I was not going to get that.

That is no longer important anyway. What is important for you is what this tells you about Amrun and MoI. The moment Amrun claimed to be descending, I knew she was telling the truth about how and why she was millerized. If anyone had any doubt at this stage, she is confirmed town now. As for MoI, until I knew how Amrun became a miller there was the possibility that MoI or a hypothetical scum partner had millerized Amrun, and he was false claiming an investigation to push a mislynch. That possibility has been ruled out now. If MoI was scum, then the scum would need to possess some means of finding out that Amrun was a miller, and we don't know of any. That makes MoI more likely to be town, even if the dual Túrin claims continue to weird me out.

By the way, since I received boons from kills, I also received explicit confirmation about what happened with my kills. That is why I know none of them were redirected. My kill of Furcolow failed, and my kills of Wraith and Will-o-wisp were successful as targeted. I don't know whether this information will help you, but there you have it.

With that, I'm running out of things to say here. Most of my reads on surviving players are confused at this point, and I have not taken the effort to sort them out since I was about to die anyway. I have other games to focus my attention on.

I am Gurthang, Compulsive Ascending Serial Killer.

Goodbye, and good luck.

"Then he drew forth his sword, and said: 'Hail Gurthang, iron of death, you alone now remain! But what lord or loyalty do you know, save the hand that wields you? From no blood will you shrink. Will you take Túrin Turambar? Will you slay me swiftly?'

And from the blade rang a cold voice in answer: 'Yes, I will drink your blood, that I may forget the blood of Beleg my master, and the blood of Brandir slain unjustly. I will slay you swiftly.'

Then Túrin set the hilts upon the ground, and cast himself upon the point of Gurthang, and the black blade took his life.

But Mablung came and looked on the hideous shape of Glaurung lying dead, and he looked upon Túrin and was grieved, thinking of Húrin as he had seen him in the Nirnaeth Arnoediad, and the dreadful doom of his kin. As the Elves stood there, men came down from Nen Girith to look upon the Dragon, and when they saw to what end the life of Túrin Turambar had come they wept; and the Elves learning at last the reason of Túrin's words to them were aghast. Then Mablung said bitterly: 'I also have been meshed in the doom of the Children of Húrin, and thus with words have slain one that I loved.'

Then they lifted up Túrin, and saw that his sword was broken asunder. So passed all that he possessed."

[Regfan]

Town Reads (S->W):

[/b] Amrun, Ludi, MoI, Gut, Empking, MoS.

Third Party:

Furcolow, Feysal.

Scum Reads (S->W):

Herodotus, Kanyeknowsbest, Nachomamma8.

Unlisted Reads:

Andrius - Leaning scum on him weakly but I need to re-read exactly what has gone on or what he's claimed to have gone on in regards to his role.
Mockingjaye - This is purely because I want to sleep on this and then re-read the whole argument overnight.

PEDIT: Thanks Feysal, I'm actually slightly glad that you didn't actually shoot this slot, it's given me something to focus on now that most of my games are over.

[mockingjaye]

As for MoI, until I knew how Amrun became a miller there was the possibility that MoI or a hypothetical scum partner had millerized Amrun, and he was false claiming an investigation to push a mislynch. That possibility has been ruled out now. If MoI was scum, then the scum would need to possess some means of finding out that Amrun was a miller, and we don't know of any. That makes MoI more likely to be town, even if the dual Túrin claims continue to weird me out.

Except that scum had a recruiter, and at least two opportunities to recruit, which is why I'm paranoid that both MoI and Ooba were recruited and cooked up the plan to get Amrun lynched and let MoI get by with proclaiming innocents or maybe bussing someone at least once later on (because at the time, Marg was still alive and would have lived one more night if you hadn't started the counter-wagon).

However, besides the timing of all of this, another doubt I have about this idea is that MoI name-claimed, and if he and Ludi were plotting something, surely he wouldn't have done that given that Amrun's flip would have opened up a lot of questions. The fact that he claimed Turin Turambar and she specifically stated that she is just Turin is also a good point in MoI's court because making a pre-emptive name-CC on a miller as scum would require a lot of brass, and while I'm sure MoI is capable of coming up with something as crazy as the same first name/separate surname thing, it's the kind of detail that would most likely be overlooked and would have precipitated having Ludi clarify with Amrun that she had no surname in her PM, and by the by--it's so freaking far-fetched. So yeah, I think I have talked myself out of that scenario. Thank you, Feysal, for setting my thoughts back in motion there because I was getting overwhelmed with paranoia.


Reg: I see what you're saying in 2207, and to some extent that's perhaps a bit true of you, but my read on Kanye goes much further back than that. I can't explain the strength in the read; I do NOT get reads this strong very often, but I've been right 2/3 times when I have. (And I'm not able to point you to those because I had them a while back on my other account, which I changed and am keeping private for personal reasons, which isn't helpful at all, I know.)

Kanye: I have been focused on the other game and actually fell asleep working on it, so I haven't had the chance to review MoS, and I'm going to bed now and I'm not sure when I will be back online. I'm a little taken aback by you asking me anything at all to be honest.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok, so finally we’re rid of Feysal.

I had a large part of this post set up responding to him but I decided to let it be for the moment. He’s already dead and no need to clutter the thread with it until postgame.

As an aside Gut’s post tag revelation is a god-send. Good work whichever head of you brought us that gem!

@Amrun

– please get you final three target list in ASAP before the thread closes.

--

Maybe, probably, why do I care?

The better question – why don’t you care? Finding scum is what Mafia (for Town, anyway) is about.

--

YOU SHOULD KNOW THERE IS ALWAYS HOPE

I've been busy this week. Reading and crap tomorrow I'm going to bed now.

Look at this … Sunday never came for Andy.

I’m more or less ready to place Andrius here in the scum bin as his play here reminds me of Stars Aligned 3 scum Andy.

--

During Day 3, while voting for Sun and Moon, Elibereth posted a link to Espeonage's search. He left his vote on the townie.

This part of your Nacho case I don’t find very appetizing. Elli was ‘following the Cop’ due to my Guilty on Amrun. It hardly is fair to attack anyone for having a vote on Amrun but putting their suspicions elsewhere Day 3.

--

1. Okay, so I had a different understanding of what AtE is, as I thought it was actually related to appealing to emotion, not logic; and I still think the question is a logical one. I'm not asking you for mercy based on feelings; I'm asking people to think based on logic.

I am town; I know I'm town, and I'm fine with getting flipped right now because then everyone will know I'm town

, but I want to put everything I'm thinking on the table before I do leave the game, and

I'm bringing these things up apurpose to try to get people to think ahead.

The two bolded are what I want to specifically respond to –

1. Why, if Town, would you be find with getting flipped? It would mean that you were either mislynched or killed at Night. Unless you logically think in your position that you are going to be fielding a scum NK I don’t understand why you would be ok with being lynched. We’ve only popped one Mafia so far … you being lynched is another mislynch that Town really wants to avoid. Everyone knowing you are Town after the fact isn’t that significantly helpful, at least compared to an actual useful lynch.
2. You are trying to get people to look ahead when doing so isn’t very useful. You claim to be Town. No-one else knows this. Until you are flipped I’m not going to pattern my play on the fact that you are Town in my suspicions and inquiries. That’s not logical play and I don’t know why you would expect Town players to work from that perspective.

I'm Turgon, by the way, VT, and I crumbed my character in my first posts of D1 and D2 hoping someone would pick up the hint and think Turgon might be a PR given that he is a king, and then I tried in two other posts to hint at maybe having an investigative or protective role (investigative--re: Gandalf/D1, when I said he shouldn't be a D1 lynch and I'd prefer to wait at least one day anyway; protective--re: MoI/D3 when I contradicted Feysal and said there might be some way to make sure MoI lived through the night and disagreed that we should just lynch elsewhere and let the chips fall where they may). Take that for what you will.

Have any past instances where as VT you have ‘breadcrumbed’ PRs to draw Nightkills? I ask because generally when I see multiple breadcrumbs being made it tends to come from scum more than Town.

--

This is the plan. However, magna, how come you didn't unvote, despite yourself saying it was really good to do so?

Because I was LA. If there was a need to turbo lynch Feysal based on Seraph information (and look, there was …) I was unlikely to have the time to read the thread in full and recongize it / revote. What little time I had this weekend was spent on my modded game.

It would be better than a weekend active player unvoted in my mind. And thus I didn’t.

--

[Amrun]

Vigpool Furc, nacho, Andy

[Empking]

Vigpool Furc, nacho, Andy

I like that.

[mockingjaye]

MoI: Because I am frustrated. I know why people suspect me, and I know scum are exploiting that to some degree. I'm also not a confrontational person, and having so many people attack me at once was overwhelming and increased my frustration, and I was pretty sure I was doomed anyway, and I reacted emotionally, not logically. (For the record, I'm not really much of a logical player; I'm an extremely emotional one--I have to write my way through emotional reactions sometimes to get to the logic--my last post being a prime example of that, but I usually do all of that outside the game itself.)

I'm not "fine" with being lynched/vigged in the sense that I "want" to be either, but at this point, given my play, if I'm just a distraction, then having me flipped could really help narrow things down more. No one was believing anything I said, and I was thinking ahead that it would be terrible to have me in LYLO for that reason. I don't trust the people now defending me, and I don't trust the people attacking me, but I know

some

of you are town and can figure things out, and given that D1 and D2 were clouded by a) lots of third-party spec, b) Feysal's agenda which helped derail a Kanye wagon, and c) so many people in general, and that D3 was so completely atypical all-around, today is really the first day I think isn't weird in some way. My flip would give concrete evidence of alignment, and given the amount of reactions to me today, would give some good leads based on how people have interacted with me. (My only real concern in that is that I am hideously wrong about Kanye, and that he gets ML after me. Other than that, I think it could be a useful flip.)

As for the breadcrumbs, no, I haven't ever used them before. Katy and I dropped a small one in Olympus which everyone said was dubious, and so I thought I would try it here given that I am VT, and doing so might pay off in a scum NK. It was an experiment.

____

I've put to bed my conspiracy theory re: Ludi/MoI, BUT not the idea that either of them could have been recruited at some point. I just wanted to clarify that from the last post, and I still think masons should be regarded as neighbors at this point, too.

[kanyeknowsbest]

i like that vig pool.

@mjaye im acting like this because of a last minute gut town read from your latest posts. ill pursue this when i get back home tonight/tomorrow

[Vi]

Flavor goes here.

VOTE COUNT #4.8

Nachomamma8 - 1 - Gut
Feysal -

8

- Empking, Andrius, MagnaofIllusion, Mastermind of Sin, Sun and Moon, Magister Ludi, Regfan, Herodotus
mockingjaye - 1 - kanyeknowsbest
kanyeknowsbest - 2 - mockingjaye, Furcolow
Sun and Moon - 1 - Nachomamma8

Not Voting (1): Feysal

With 14 alive it will take 8 votes to lynch.

More flavor goes here.

Yes, yes, you already know what's going to happen because Feysal has no sense of suspense.

--- Feysal ---

Gurthang, Compulsive Ascending Serial Killer

--- Lynched Day 4!!!

Night 4 starts now.
Send actions to BOTH me and Plum please.
If there are any issues with the game state, prods, replacements, V/LA, etc., etc., now would be an excellent time to say something.
If there are no reasons to delay, Night 4 will end in 48 hours - (expired on 2011-11-23 20:00:00)

[Vi]

Night 4 has been extended until tomorrow morning.

[Plum]

It has.

[Vi]

Night is being extended just a little further...

[Plum]

Not that much. Just Thanksgiving, didn't have time to update as early as I'd planned. Happening right now.

[Plum]

Now the Orcs, finding the issue of the secret stair, left the summit and entered Bar-en-Danwedh, which they defiled and ravaged. They did not find Mîm, lurking in his caves, and when they had departed from Amon Rûdh Mîm appeared on the summit, and going to where Beleg lay prostrate and unmoving he gloated over him while he sharpened a knife.

But Mîm and Beleg were not the only living beings on that stony height. Andróg, though himself wounded to the death, crawled among the dead bodies towards them, and seizing a sword he thrust it at the Dwarf. Shrieking in fear Mîm ran to the brink of the cliff and disappeared: he fled down a steep and difficult goat's path that was known to him. But Andróg putting forth his last strength cut through the wristbands and fetters that bound Beleg, and so released him; but dying he said: 'My hurts are too deep even for your healing.'

No safeguards against treachery, nor the treachery of your own heart.

Furcolow, Mîm,

Treacherous Survivor

--> Serial Killer Aligned, died automatically Day 4

Then Turgon took the counsel of Húrin and Huor, and he gave orders that his host should begin a retreat into the passes of Sirion; and his captains Ecthelion and Glorfindel guarded the flanks to right and left so none of the enemy should pass them by, for the only road in that region was narrow and ran near the west bank of the growing stream of Sirion. But the Men of Dor-lómin held the rearguard, as Húrin and Huor desired; for they did not wish in their hearts to escape from the Northlands; and if they could not win back to their homes, there they would stand to the end. So it was that Turgon fought his way southward, until coming behind the guard of Húrin and Huor, he passed down Sirion and escaped; and he vanished into the mountains and was hidden from the eyes of Morgoth. But the brothers drew the remnant of the House of Hador about them, and foot by foot they withdrew, until they came behind the Fen of Serech, and had the steam of Rivil before them. There they stood and gave way no more.

Then all the hosts of Angband swarmed against them, and they bridged the stream with their dead, and encircled the remnant of Hithlum as a gathering tide about a rock. There, as the Sun westered and the shadows of Ered Wethron grew dark, Huor fell pierced with a venomed arrow in his eye, and all the valiant men of Hador were slain about him in a heap; and the Orcs hewed their heads and piled them as a mound of gold in the sunset.

The Chldren of Húrin 58-59

The treachery of your heart to the ones you have abandoned . . .

Andrius, Huor, Mafia Goon slain cruelly Night 4

With 11 alive it will take 6 votes to lynch. Deadline in approximately 14 days.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Not much time right now but not a lot is needed -

VOTE: Mastermind of Sin

Be a dear and claim your name, role and Night actions. Especially last Night.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Damn, forgot to add

MOD - I'll be LA for family and Thanksgiving duties til Monday morning. I should have time this weekend but can't promise when.

With Andy's scum flip I'll be updating my VCA for the new reveals and yesterday's voting next chance I can.

[Magister Ludi]

Vote: Nacho