Secret Society Mafia - Game Over

[StefanB]

Give me until tomorrow, there are a few thinks I have to think about.
Sorgster and Oversoul both werewolf would mean, that we got to werewolfs as the lead waggons on day 3 (hm), Sorgster and Oversoul working together without beeing both werewolfs unlickly.
If there is one more werewolf I will search for him tomorrow (and for mafia) too.

Molla: Has it somethink to do with your SS? Is it only effective against wolves?

[ToastyToast]

vote:sorgster

We should've gone this way yesterday. I'm going to try to look for connections b/w players. Him and Otolia are my two right now; My other early scum-read, GW, seems to be acting more townish, but the whole miller thing plus dem rolefishes are still on my mind.

[sorgster]

@peregrineV, oversoul was one of the main pushers of my wagon and helped start the wagon on me on day 2 and 3.

[Ghostlin]

EoD vote counts (includes the dead); more analysis in next post:

Day 1:

IceGuy

(12):

Maxous

, Global Warming,

TheJakalope

, StefanB,

EtherealCookie

, sageamagoo, BBmolla,

MagnaofIllusion

,

Oversoul

, Yosarian2,

zMuffinMan

,

David Xanatos

sageamagoo (5):

DarthYoshi

, Bogre, Ghostlin, PeregrineV, [/color]IceGuy
Otolia (3): sorgster, Dry-fit, Baby Spice
Baby Spice (2):

Alabaska J

, Wraith
StefanB (1): Otolia

MagnaofIllusion

(1): ToastyToast
sorgster (1): whispersilk

Day 2:

TheJakalope

(12): Global Warming, Ghostlin, StefanB, Otolia,

DarthYoshi

,

Oversoul,

Alabaska J,

Maxous

, sorgster, Bogre, ToastyToast,

David Xanatos

Dry-Fit (5): BBmolla, The Fonz, Yosarian2, Empking's Alt,

zMuffinMan

BBmolla (3): Wraith, Dry-fit, PeregrineV

Alabaska J (1)

:

TheJakalope

Not voting (1): whispersilk

Day 3:

Maxous (10)

: Ghostlin, Global Warming, ToastyToast,

DarthYoshi

, Empking's Alt,

Alabaska J

, PeregrineV, sorgster, The Fonz, StefanB
sorgster (7): Bogre,

Maxous

, Yosarian2, BBmolla, Wraith, whispersilk,

Oversoul

BBmolla (2): David Xanatos, Otolia
Otolia (1): Dry-fit

Day 4:

David Xanatos

(9): StefanB, Empking's Alt, BBmolla, Ghostlin, Global Warming, Dry-fit, sorgster, Bogre, Wraith
Dry-fit (5): The Fonz, Yosarian2, Otolia, PeregrineV, David Xanatos
sorgster (1): ToastyToast
Not voting (2): whispersilk,

Oversoul

[Ghostlin]

Errors:
Day 1: There's an Iceguy that should be green.
Day 2: Alabaska J should be green, not red. (Sorry AJ, if you're reading this from Good Town Heaven. aka the dead thread)
Day 3-4: A DX should be green.

Analysis: I'm glad I did this VCA, because I'm seeing the following patterns that are making me have OSHI- moments like the moment your head hits the windshield in a car crash.

The following people were on Day 1 and 2 vote counts together: Max, Oversoul. Both of these players flipped scum.
The following people have only not voted Day 3 (after the guilty) together: Yosarian2 and The Fonz
After Day 2, the following people have been voting together: GW and Ghostlin
The following person has been on EVERY LYNCH THIS GAME: StefanB

The following people from my counts are more likely to be in the scum tier this game: Yos, Fonz, Stefan. I know what happened Day 2 that synched my votes with GW's and that's their call if they want to share.

[Bogre]

Yeah, I'd be all for lynching StefanB.

[Ghostlin]

With that in mind, I release the Ghostlin list, Day 4, edition:

Out of the Dryer:

TT, GW

Clothes Worn Once:

Most of the game, but I'm wondering at this point if Sorg shouldn't go here. Dry-Fit's already here for me.

Dirty Laundry:

From VCA: Yos2 (particularly if the next person I mention flips scum), Fonz (plus my case Day 4, he'd be on this list anyway), StephanB (wait. You've been on four lynch wagons. FOUR. That's stretching my length of coindence here.)

From general scuminess: Sorg (fairly useless player, but the DX debacle and the VCA has shaken my faith a bit), Wraith (generally agrees with Fonz, a few really, really scummy posts).

[Ghostlin]

Mod: Announcing V/LA Thanksgiving weekend 24-27th Nov; my birthday and convention are happening that weekend. I may post, but it'll be spordaic.

[The Fonz]

Vote: Dry-Fit

Should have done this yesterday. DX was a bad wagon. I need to look at it, but I get the feeling scum was on early rather than late - there's no discernable attempt to swing the lynch away from Dry-Fit late on.

Ghostlin, voting together simply isn't a scumbuddy tell. Putting my secret vote on.

[Ghostlin]

Vote: Dry-Fit

Should have done this yesterday. DX was a bad wagon. I need to look at it, but I get the feeling scum was on early rather than late - there's no discernable attempt to swing the lynch away from Dry-Fit late on.

Ghostlin, voting together simply isn't a scumbuddy tell. Putting my secret vote on.

Alright. While you and I can play pingpong about my read about you and Yos, what do you think of StefanB?

[The Fonz]

Also, I'm somewhat concerned by the fact that a) BBM has survived multiple nights after softclaiming power and b) Whispersilk didn't really contribute at all yesterday. Not exactly her fault, but I don't want this to be another game where there's a slot in lylo that's barely done anything.

[The Fonz]

Vote: Dry-Fit

Should have done this yesterday. DX was a bad wagon. I need to look at it, but I get the feeling scum was on early rather than late - there's no discernable attempt to swing the lynch away from Dry-Fit late on.

Ghostlin, voting together simply isn't a scumbuddy tell. Putting my secret vote on.

Alright. While you and I can play pingpong about my read about you and Yos, what do you think of StefanB?

Obviously has both newness and language issues. Some attempt to use meta to inform his reads. Certainly contributing a lot. I don't think being on lots of lynches is a scumtell. If he were conspicuously avoiding wagons on a certain scumgroup, sure, but he didn't with regard the Wolves, and there's no evidence that he has with regard to the mafia. I wouldn't say he's a town read, but I'm not interested in him today.

[Bogre]

Also, I'm somewhat concerned by the fact that a) BBM has survived multiple nights after softclaiming power and b) Whispersilk didn't really contribute at all yesterday. Not exactly her fault, but I don't want this to be another game where there's a slot in lylo that's barely done anything.

Dunno about that either. It's possible, as someone mentioned earlier, that the scum were trying to eliminate members of a secret society. Looking at the kills to try and figure that out:

The kills are cyclical at first look. Night 1 we have a claimed vig shot and one NK. N2 1 kill. N3 two kills again. N4 one kill. Seems like we've either had a lot of saves or overkills, or factions have cyclical shots.

The only clear thing to me at this point is that wolves didn't have a kill n4 or it didn't go through somehow, ignoring rarer mechanics like drivers.

[ToastyToast]

Also, I'm somewhat concerned by the fact that a) BBM has survived multiple nights after softclaiming power and b) Whispersilk didn't really contribute at all yesterday. Not exactly her fault, but I don't want this to be another game where there's a slot in lylo that's barely done anything.

My main reason for BBmolla as possible scum is the whole roleblocking thing (yes, I understand the counter-argument). In other words, you are sorta suspecting the wrong thing. BBmolla may be kept alive if scum think they could mislynch him. He's not really on anyones obvtown list--it just depends on how you look at it.

The kills are cyclical at first look. Night 1 we have a claimed vig shot and one NK. N2 1 kill. N3 two kills again. N4 one kill. Seems like we've either had a lot of saves or overkills, or factions have cyclical shots.

What do you mean by cyclical shots?

[Global Warming]

Toasty: Cyclical shots as in the factions take turns in shooting (example: mafia have an odd night kill, werewolves have an even night kill.

The stefanb analysis from ghostlin looks fine, but the whole "fonz and yos not voting at same time, SCUM!" thing doesn't make sense to me. It's a

very

loose connection, at best.

Sorgster needs to die, but he's starting to read less and less like actual scum to me. This is a bother.

[Global Warming]

Need words from molla.

On the topic of why ghostlin's vote has matched ours (or vice versa if you like): it's completely unimportant.

Dryfit wagon gets complimentary cookies for being good and stuff. Vote is left in con's hands rather than me going for it without talking things over with him.

[Bogre]

Also, I'm somewhat concerned by the fact that a) BBM has survived multiple nights after softclaiming power and b) Whispersilk didn't really contribute at all yesterday. Not exactly her fault, but I don't want this to be another game where there's a slot in lylo that's barely done anything.

My main reason for BBmolla as possible scum is the whole roleblocking thing (yes, I understand the counter-argument). In other words, you are sorta suspecting the wrong thing. BBmolla may be kept alive if scum think they could mislynch him. He's not really on anyones obvtown list--it just depends on how you look at it.

The kills are cyclical at first look. Night 1 we have a claimed vig shot and one NK. N2 1 kill. N3 two kills again. N4 one kill. Seems like we've either had a lot of saves or overkills, or factions have cyclical shots.

What do you mean by cyclical shots?[/quote

Odd night cycles.

[Dry-fit]

Vote: Otolia

. Can't believe this guy is still alive.

My second suspect is yos. I would expect him to have been killed by now if he was town and he's been scummy anyways.

Adding to what you said Fonz I think it's weird that GW and Toasty haven't been killed either.

[Yosarian2]

Vote:Dry-fit

We should have lynched this guy yesterday. I really have no idea why we lynched David X instead, unless that was a scum-driven counterwagon to protect Dry Fit.

[StefanB]

Hello Ghostlin, yes I have been on all lynches, why I have no idea.
2 of them I don't mind.
The third David would probably not mind pushing again (if he did not do anythink all game), I am sorry that he was town, yes, did I know? Of course not.
Iceguy I tunneled on, for my own reasons. I am sorry but I thought he was scum.
That's for the reasons why my votes where on this people.

Is for why my votes were allways on the lynch, no idea on that. I have hardly the feeling that I am that influencal that game. Not counting day 3, where I hammered (after a copguilty), I have always been on of the first on the particulary waggon. (4. on day 1 and day 2, if you don't count DarthYoshis unvote and first yesterday) I don't think I am particulary influencal this game, so why does everyone follow my votes (if this has even somethink to do with me)? Should I unvote when a waggon I like goes to lynch?
Ghostlin: Would you have hammered IceGuy if it would get near deadline day 1? (ignoring the double vote) If you would have, would a fictional Ghostlin be scummy because of it? Would the hammer chanced your votes on The Jakolope, Maxous or David? Should it have,

Bogre: Your case on me is that I unvoted Otalia to vote Sage on day 1 right? (Fun fact, 4 of your post later okay 100 gamepost later you voted Sage yourself) and that my reads were weak day 1 and that I had him as one of my suspects for a potential bus on TheJakalope (the other were Maxous and Sorgster I missed Oversoul) and perhaps that I wanted to kill mafia yesterday (and failed)

[StefanB]

Pople Oversoul called town: Yos
People Oversoul called scum: Otalia

FOSed Bogre for votting Babyspice(now Empking)

Called Sorgster scum in his catchup post.

Voted: Otalia and Sorgster

Called Sorgster and TheJak scumbuddys in 686, since he suspected that TheJak would flip, that means Sorgster is unlickly werewolf.

Reads:
Town:
DY
Yos
Ghost
Pere

Probably town:
Alabaska
Emp

Probably scum:
Max
BBmolla

Scum:
Sorg
DX

I have not much. I won't voted Sorgster for today, while Oversouls ("I think I was on Max", was probable a lie, he was to much painted by Oversoul as scum, to be werewolf. (That's nearly half of Oversouls ISO!!!!!!! If can find more, please do.

[StefanB]

Okay, read through 3 ISOs, Wraith, Yos and Whisper:
At the moment, I go with feeling

Vote: Wraith

If we have 4 wolves I would say last one, only mentioned Maxous and Oversoul in passing. The finding TheJak scummy but not votting him is normally for a scummbuddy (exspecially a weak one like TheJak).
Yos seemed to be a bit out of sucess in finding wolves, doesn't look like a big danger for scum at the moment.
Whisper I need more.

BBMolla: I suggest leaving BBMolla alone for now. Act for the next to days like there is another wolf, if we have 4 flipps, all wolves are 100% dead.
If you trust your teammates tell them what you know. I don't think the wolves will be trying to kill you, if they still exist, they have other kills to make.

[Magua]

Vote Count 5.1

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

sorgster (4): Ghostlin, Bogre, PeregrineV, ToastyToast
Dry-fit (3): Empking's Alt, The Fonz, Yosarian2
Otolia (2): sorgster, Dry-fit
Wraith (1): StefanB

Not voting (5): whispersilk, Otolia, BBmolla, Wraith, Global Warming

V/LA: Ghostlin (11/24-11/27)

Deadline is November 28th, at 9:00pm EST.
Countdown to deadline:

(expired on 2011-11-28 22:00:00)

[Wraith]

Vote: sorgster

I'd really, really, really like to see this scumbag hang today, please.

[The Fonz]

@StefanB: Who would be your picks for mafia then?

@Ghostlin: Do you find Stefan's being on every lynch scummier than Wraith's being on every lynch except the scum one?

My second suspect is yos. I would expect him to have been killed by now if he was town and he's been scummy anyways.

Bad, bad argument. Proven PRs have survived several days, why would you think Yos would particularly be in their sights? And saying an offhand 'And he's been scummy' without saying how. And bringing this up only after Ghostlin tagged Yos as a scum candidate, having not mentioned Yos before (which if 'He's been scummy' you'd have thought you'd have done). It seems to me like scum have probably been prioritising crosskills.

@Yos: Calling the DavidX wagon a deliberate counterwagon to Dry-Fit fails. David X was the leading wagon from the third VC of the day to deadline, and the leading wagon before that was mine. At the very least, the first five players on the wagon (StefanB, Empking's Alt, Global Warming, BBmolla, Ghostlin) clearly had no 'Save DF' angle in pushing that particular wagon (It was a town wagon, so that's not to say there were no scum, but if there's scum there, it's not a Dry-Fit link). When the Dry-Fit wagon went to three (including my secret vote) Sorgster and Otolia jumped on the wagon. That I suppose could be 'Save Dry-Fit', though I have a hard time seeing Otolia and Dry-Fit as partners given the latter's tunneling on the former, and the fact Otolia later jumps to Dry-Fit. I suppose that IS a valid DF/Sorgster link, though.

In 4.10, there's an effective tie (DX 7, DF 6 plus my secret vote) which is broken by Bogre switching off Sorgster. Wraith then leaves Dry-Fit to hammer for the sake of getting a hammer (annoyingly, seconds before I was going to post my big rebuttal to ConSpiracy et al).

So if there's any actual movement to ensure it's DX and not DF who swings, it's Sorgster or Bogre, Bogre in particular looking bad if DF flips mafia.