The Children of Húrin Mafia (GREAT REVIVAL)

[Magister Ludi]

Herod, we have a guilty report on MoS? What did I miss?

[Herodotus]

We don't have a "report" yet, but... it would probably be best if you reread day 5.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Herod, we have a guilty report on MoS? What did I miss?

Question of the moment - then why, if you believe a guilty report is in, are you voting for someone else?

Once MoS returns and makes his claim more discussion on that end can be had.

[Magister Ludi]

It looks like Magna just thinks MoS is scum? Well, I think Nacho happens to be scum as well. I didn't see any guilty report, (and thus don't believe it,) otherwise I would be voting the guilty.

[MagnaofIllusion]

It looks like Magna just thinks MoS is scum? Well, I think Nacho happens to be scum as well. I didn't see any guilty report, (and thus don't believe it,) otherwise I would be voting the guilty.

Aha, missed the question mark at the "Herod, we have a guilty report on MoS". Changes the context of your post.

In any regard until MoS posts (or probably three more days pass, whichever comes first) I will not be giving out anything about what information I may or may not have.

But since you feel strongly about Nacho-scum please give us the highlights to consider while we have some time. I'd like to hear your thoughts on it.

[Amrun]

I still have a townread on MoS, so I'd like a bullet-point list of his scumminess (and nacho's, for that matter).

[Gut]

MoS is definitely avoiding the thread. He's been on the site.

Vote: MoS

[Plum]

VOTE COUNT #5.2

Mastermind of Sin -

2

- MagnaofIllusion, Gut
Nachomamma8 -1 - Magister Ludi

Not Voting (8): Sun and Moon, Nachomamma8, Mastermind of Sin, Dekes, mockingjaye, kanyeknowsbest, Empking, Herodotus

Prodding kanyaknowsbest, mockingjaye, Mastermind of Sin, and Nachomamma8.

With 11 alive it will take 6 votes to lynch.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Note to Minaday

- In the last two hours I received a notification that my Latent ability was deactivated. I am assuming this is AGM/Thor scum's latest move. If I am correct please get this information to the thread via Magister so we can set up a 36 hours timeframe by which to give you the last ability usage of the day.

--

Gut is correct - MoS has checked onto MS without posting pretty much anywhere. More votes probably will help accelerate his desire to actually comply with the stated request.

[Herodotus]

How do the two of you know this?

VOTE: Mastermind of Sin
L-3

[Regfan]

Herodotis, by looking at his profile and seeing: Last visited: Sun Nov 27, 2011 4:44 pm.

Vote: MoS

[Herodotus]

Okay. I knew that existed, but didn't think of it.

Same is true for Nacho. Last logged off from MS about one hour ago, at about the same time as the Mod announced prods.

[Herodotus]

Wait, what exactly does "last visited" mean? Is it the last time the account was logged in, the last time it was logged out, or something else?

[Herodotus]

Sorry for triple posting. I just experimented using my own account. The time listed appears unreliable, but it's the log out time.

[kanyeknowsbest]

im here waiting to see what mos has to say.

not sure im going to hold his disappearance against him too heavily as he is also leaving the game he is modding hanging. id like to think he wouldnt let his own game suffer to put off replying in a different game.

[Nachomamma8]

I'm here, but not quite ready to make the post I wanted quite yet.

If MoS is not posting anywhere, I don't really see how he's avoiding the thread. Or even why he would. If I remember correctly, he didn't mind going toe to toe with MoI yesterday, and so there's no reason for him to suddenly feel so much fear now.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Empking

– Who did you target last Night?

--

I still have a townread on MoS, so I'd like a bullet-point list of his scumminess (and nacho's, for that matter).

Here’s very quick bullet-points –

1. Lack of general scum-hunting. Read his ISO and look at how he really spends more time talking about Town-reads than scum-reads.
2. His Esp / Smarg interactions. He never really addressed my case on that end – he ignored Esp all game (including the things I called Esp as scum out during Days 1 – 3) and wanted him replaced. When Smarg appears and posts horribly scummy it’s “KILL ON SITE” which is a reaction you’d expect if he thought Esp was scum and a replacement came in and continued to be scummy.
3. Very defensive play. He spends volumes and volumes on defending himself and this ties into 1.
4. SEKRIT INFO that will come out sooner or later here.

--

not sure im going to hold his disappearance against him too heavily as he is also leaving the game he is modding hanging. id like to think he wouldnt let his own game suffer to put off replying in a different game.

His disappearance isn’t to be held against him. I just want him to actually post what he needs to so we can get him settled and decide what else needs to be accomplished today.

Please give your read on MoS before his information post is discussed.

--

I'm here, but not quite ready to make the post I wanted quite yet.

Well while you are working up whatever you need to do that –

Please discuss your thoughts on Andy now that he has flipped scum. You really were loathe to commit to a read on him yesterday.

[mockingjaye]

I haven't had a chance to read anything at all since last week; we had a big and eventful Thanksgiving holiday and I'm just now picking things back up on site. I should have something more to say later this afternoon.

[MagnaofIllusion]

To do on the sooner side of sooner or later -

1. Update VCA with additional scum flip.
2. Read MoS and other top suspects in regards to Andy, especially Day 2 on.

[Gut]

Why would you pay special interest starting on day2? Gandalf was targeted by both potential role givers night 1 if my memory isn't failing me which means if Andy started without a role he wouldn't have known he was mafia until day 3 at the earliest.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Why would you pay special interest starting on day2? Gandalf was targeted by both potential role givers night 1 if my memory isn't failing me which means if Andy started without a role he wouldn't have known he was mafia until day 3 at the earliest.

Your assumption here is that Andy didn't start out Mafia. No strong evidence to say either way. My guess here is that if Andy was recruited (his role flavor being 'Mafia Goon' really doesn't align with any other flips we have seen so far) it was N1 when no Mafia kill (or what we assume is the Mafia flavor with "tortured") happened. Would require Esp / Smarg to have two independant actions (both Neighborizing and Recruiting) but that isn't out of the question.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Revised VCA –

22 Actual players in the game (disregarding the Seraphs – they will have to live with it). High expected total scum percentage is around 33%. I’m going to go 35% just based on gut. Expected total scum is 7.7, rounded to 8. After a Night’s sleep I’ve decided to filter out

Feysal

and Furc from the process to better identify scum. This leaves 6 expected scum (including recruits).

Blue equals confirmed Town via deaths.
Red equals confirmed non-Town via deaths
Orange equals Third Party claims in thread.

N1 End of Day Wagons –

kanyeknowsbest - 5 -

Will-o-wisp

, mockingjaye,

Wraith

, Sun and Moon,

PeregrineV

Feysal

- 3 - Mastermind of Sin, MagnaofIllusion, Herodotus

PeregrineV

- 12 - Dekes,

Feysal

, Empking,

Spyrex

, Gut, kanyeknowsbest, Magister Ludi,

VitaminR

,

Furcolow

,

Andrius

,

Smargaret

,

gandalf5166

Not Voting (2):

Chronopie

, Ellibereth


N2 End of Day Wagons –

Furcolow

l - 1 -

Smargaret

Feysal

- 1 - Dekes

VitaminR

- 10 - Herodotus, Gut, Empking,

Furcolow

l, Magister Ludi, kanyeknowsbest, MagnaofIllusion,

Wraith

,

Andrius

,

Feysal

kanyeknowsbest - 6 - mockingjaye,

Will-o-wisp

,

gandalf5166

, Sun and Moon,

VitaminR

Will-o-wisp

- 1 -

Spyrex

Wraith

- 1 - Mastermind of Sin

Not Voting (1): Ellibereth,

N3 End of Day Wagons –

Sun and Moon - 4 - Empking, Ellibereth,

Andrius

,

Spyrex

Empking - 1 -

Will-o-wisp

Smargaret

- 9 - Herodotus, kanyeknowsbest, Mastermind of Sin, Sun and Moon,

Furcolow

l, Gut, Magister Ludi, mockingjaye, MagnaofIllusion
MagnaofIllusion - 1 -

Smargaret

Not Voting (2): Dekes,

Feysal

N4 End of Day Wagons –

Nachomamma8 - 1 - Gut

Feysal

- 8 - Empking,

Andrius

, MagnaofIllusion, Mastermind of Sin, Sun and Moon, Magister Ludi, Regfan, Herodotus
mockingjaye - 1 - kanyeknowsbest
kanyeknowsbest - 2 - mockingjaye,

Furcolow

Sun and Moon - 1 - Nachomamma8

Not Voting (1):

Feysal

[MagnaofIllusion]

Wagon Analysis (not considering MoS scum immediately )–

Day 1 –

With 6 expected Mafia and 22 alive the percentage is 27.2%.

Expected scum on wagon of 12 is 3.264, rounded to 3.
Expected scum off the wagon (10) is 2.72, rounded to 3.

Scum pool on the wagon (1) – Regfan, Empking, Gut, Kayne, Magister
Scum pool off the wagon (3) – Mockingjaye, Sun and Moon, MoS, Hero, Nacho

Day 2 –

With 6 expected Mafia and 20 alive the percentage is 30%

Expected scum on wagon of 10 is 3.
Expected scum off wagon (10) is 3.

Scum pool on the wagon (2) – Hero, Gut, Empking, Magister, Kayne
Scum pool off the wagon (2) – Regfan, Mockingjaye, Sun and Moon, MoS, Nacho


Day 3 –

With 6 expected Mafia and 17 alive the percentage is 35.3%

Expected scum on wagon of 9 is 3.168, rounded to 3.
Expected scum off wagon (8) is 2.816, rounded to 3.

Scum pool on the wagon (3) – Herod, Kayne, MoS, Sun and Moon, Gut, Magister, Mockingjaye
Scum pool off the wagon (1) – Regfan, Nacho, Empking

Day 4 –

With 5 expected Mafia and 14 alive the percentage is 35.7%

Expected scum on wagon of 8 is 2.857. rounded to 3
Expected scum off wagon (6) is 2.142, rounded to 2

Scum pool on the wagon (2) – Empking, MoS, Sun and Moon, Magister, Regfan, Hero
Scum pool off the wagon (2) – Gut, kayne, mockingjaye, Nacho

[Nachomamma8]

Please discuss your thoughts on Andy now that he has flipped scum. You really were loathe to commit to a read on him yesterday.

Not quite sure what you want from me here.

[Herodotus]

UNVOTE:

After this game, I think you should reevaluate the accuracy of the assumption that the "Expected scum on/off wagon" is independent of the alignment of the person lynched.

LOL, I've peeked ahead at the results Magna will be deriving...