The Children of Húrin Mafia (GREAT REVIVAL)

[MagnaofIllusion]

Analytics –

Day 1:

1 scum in 5 players = .200 per player – Regfan, Empking, Gut, Kayne, Magister
3 scum in 5 players = .600 per player – Mockingjaye, Sun and Moon, MoS, Nacho, Herod

Day 2:

2 scum in 5 players - .400 per player – Hero, Gut, Empking, Magister, Kayne
2 scum in 5 players - .400 per player – Regfan, Mockingjaye, Sun and Moon, MoS, Nacho

Day 3:

3 scum in 7 players - .430 per player – Herod, Kayne, MoS, Sun and Moon, Gut, Magister, Mockingjaye
1 scum in 3 players - .333 per player – Regfan, Empking, Nacho

Day 4:

2 scum in 6 players = .333 per player – Empking, MoS, Sun and Moon, Magister, Regfan, Hero
2 scum in 4 players = .500 per player – Gut, Kayne, Mockingjaye, Nacho

Complied Results –

Regfan – 1.332
Empking – 1.332
Gut – 1.530
Kayne – 1.530
Magister – 1.363
Mockingjaye – 1.930
Sun and Moon – 1.763
MoS – 1.763
Nacho – 1.833
Herod – 1.763

Resulting Pools –

High – Mockingjaye, Nacho, Herod, MoS
Medium – Gut, Kayne
Low – Regfan, Magister, Empking

1. For the record I did remove Sun and Moon from the list of Mafia suspects for obvious reasons.
2. Not a big change from the last time. Mockingjaye and Nacho look even worse based solely on analytics. Empking moves down and Gut / Kayne move up to the middle.

I will probably re-run this with MoS factored as Mafia after we get him sorted out.

[MagnaofIllusion]

UNVOTE:

After this game, I think you should reevaluate the accuracy of the assumption that the "Expected scum on/off wagon" is independent of the alignment of the person lynched.

LOL, I've peeked ahead at the results Magna will be deriving...

Nope, not happening. No system is absolute but this one works well enough for me. Until I can see something that would be a head and shoulders improvement to the purely mathmatical system I am using here don't expect it to change.

That said feel free to look at any wagon you want regarding placement of players and what it speaks to as far as alignment. I will do that myself later this game-day after the Andy-interaction work.

[Herodotus]

That's a particularly anti-scientific approach. How can you say that you would consider something that would be a "head and shoulders improvement", if you refuse to evaluate ideas outside of the system you use?

If you're going to remove Sun and Moon, why not do it at an earlier stage, such as when removing the players who have died?

[MagnaofIllusion]

That's a particularly anti-scientific approach. How can you say that you would consider something that would be a "head and shoulders improvement", if you refuse to evaluate ideas outside of the system you use?

If you're going to remove Sun and Moon, why not do it at an earlier stage, such as when removing the players who have died?

I've developed this over my year plus here at MS. At this point it's as highly developed as I think it is going to get. Again - it is certainly not a "ABSOLUTE INDICATION OF SCUM" tool here. It's a tool to objectively, without emotion / personal bias, review where people fall at the end of each day regarding lynching wagons.

Unless someone comes up with solid statistics that apply to specific games types (for example, showing that in general scum in Large Themes bus less than average statisical spread implies) I don't know what else to refine. I'm not going to crunch numbers myself for that end ... I'm not that altrustic.

Sun and Moon has to stay for the same reason I stay in the raw data stages - I want as full a picture as possible in the raw data. I don't know Sun and Moon's alignment conclusively (were I a Mason in a non-bastard game I wouldn't mark my fellow Mason members / myself confirmed Town until such a point when it was uncontested public knowledge via flips and un-countered claims) so I include Amrun all the way until sloting, at which time I drop her out.

[Nachomamma8]

MoI, could you clarify what you wanted me to comment on about Andrius?

[Amrun]

ESPEONAGE.
PLAY THE GAME.
IF WE BECOME LOVERS AND YOU LURK ILL LEAVE YOU FOR MJAYE.

There's lots of stuff like this in Andy's ISO. LOTS of buddying/defending mjay and it's seriously weirding me out. He gives mjay town reads out of NOWHERE, just like he did for Espeonage (and, will-o-wisp, though he called WoW scum later and thus retracted it as he never did for mjay).

TOWNIER THAN TURIN
2. Magister Ludi
6. Ellibereth
7. Mastermind of Sin
10. mockingjaye
11. Furcolow
12. Gut (Cogito Ergo Sum + chamber hydra)
17. Espeonage
20. MagnaofIllusion
21. Will-o-wisp (Oversoul + Mist Beauty hydra)


CALCIFER
1. Andrius
5. gandalf5166

SCUMMIER THAN SAURON:
14. SpyreX
15. Katsuki
16. kanyeknowsbest

NOT AS SCUMMY AS THEM:
18. Empking
22. LordChronos


POST MOAR PLZ/NEED TO PAY MORE ATTENTION TO
3. Sun and Moon (CSL + Amrun hydra)
4. Chronopie
8. Dekes
9. PeregrineV
13. Wraith
19. VitaminR

This is the extent of everything he says about Dekes, reads-wise, but he addresses Dekes in-game A LOT.

1. Andrius <--- U. N. OWEN.
2. ooba <--- Town Mason [?] bastard so eeehhhh but i liked ooba's play and ludi. if one is scum its amrun but masons so prob. both town i guess
3. Sun and Moon <--- more likely scum mason than magisterooba.
6. Ellibereth <--- elli_scum. sorry nachobaby.
7. Mastermind of Sin <--- metascum
8. Dekes <--- is this regfan? dekes was also lurkylurkscum
10. mockingjaye <--- reallybusytown
11. Furcolow <--- survivor (lol)
12. Gut <--- town via seraph
15. Feysal <--- SK
16. kanyeknowsbest <--- will have to reread
18. Empking <--- prob.town lets be honest here role confirmation. unless he's scum with me or gandalf but gandalf is deadtown and me well being unknown so
20. MagnaofIllusion <--- obvtown. long live magna
22. Herodotus <--- will have to reread

But this switch on the Dekes/regfan slot without saying anything else makes me feel a little bit better about it.

Overall, I feel worst about mjay from this flip. Can someone detail why they thought the flip made mjay townier?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Overall, I feel worst about mjay from this flip. Can someone detail why they thought the flip made mjay townier?

I'm not sure anyone has said they find MJ more Townie due to Andy's flip. The only thing relational tell I see MoS's 180' turn of opinion right at Night regarding MJ. I don't see MoS-scum doing that in relation to MJ-scum when there was still a strong possibility that MJ could get shot / have something incriminating come up. I would expect either he would have kept MJ as possible scum for read Cred.

[Amrun]

I re-read overnight and as much as I'd hate to say it Mockingjaye is probably town, all other of my thoughts can wait until MoS responds if he ever does.

Herrodotus, I'd like for you to point out specific examples that makes you think that.

This was the post I was thinking of.

MoI: So you think I can somehow still be scum even though I've shot scum twice?

[MagnaofIllusion]

MoI: So you think I can somehow still be scum even though I've shot scum twice?

Um, no. What makes you say that?

[Amrun]

Because you're not unequivocal about my alignment, in your own words.

[Empking]

Who did you target last Night?

Furc.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Because you're not unequivocal about my alignment, in your own words.

I can't be unequivocal about you in the same way I am about myself since I can't see your role-Pm.

If I had any thoughts at all about you having even the slightest possibility of being Mafia I would have still included you in my VCA.

[kanyeknowsbest]

yeah amrun i got the same vibe from his early posting that you did. the choice quote i was sitting on is this one:

Ehhh, I think you're town for reasons I can't talk about now.
ITS OK NEXT TIME I WONT PUT YOU IN THE GENERAL TWON LIST
ILL PUT YOU IN THE LIST OF PREFERED MASONS/LOVERS:

MJAYE, ESPEO, ELLI

i read this stuff as potentially trying to hint to the scum team that he was recruitable. his posting towards espeonage quickly changes to an irritated "play the game stance" but he defends his town read on mockingjaye all the way to the end.

also based on espeonage's posting towards andrius, i am coming to the conclusion that the scumteam was unaware of andys scum role day 1.

[kanyeknowsbest]

Please give your read on MoS before his information post is discussed.

i had an early scum read on him that i forgot about for awhile and as i was getting at with mjaye at the end of yesterday, if there was scum defending me its probably mos.

[Magister Ludi]

Wow, post 606 looks like gold from Andrius.

[mockingjaye]

Amrun, Andy gives me town reads because he guessed I would fall for it (I did). This is my first game since

Olympus

, and I spent all of that game in a QT with Andy (mod) and Katy (hydra partner). They are probably the only real friends I've made on site, and one of the things I said in the QT was that Andy probably knows me better than anyone else on site because of that game and another. He knew that I would believe he was giving a genuine read of me as town because I know that he knows me, and he was right in guessing I would be inclined to trust him. (You will see a somewhat similar exchange between me and Katy in Isengard, btw.)

As for the last post you quoted, in which Andy lists his reads and says I'm really busy town--note that he posted that AFTER he tried that "Oh, Mjaye isn't posting here but she is posting elsewhere" move and I called him out on it. He backed off, and I'm assuming he did that with the hope that I would drop it because as he well knows once I get an idea in my head it's very hard for me to get rid of it.

___

MoI: I thought your latent ability had been deactivated on D3? Post 1829, but now in Post 2258 it's been deactivated again? I am trying to get a handle on the timeline here. Was your ability ever deactivated in the first place, and if not, why did you say it was?

Empking: Why Furc?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

We had his ability activated again Yesterday, mjaye. Cops are generally useful.

[Gut]

We had his ability activated again Yesterday, mjaye. Cops are generally useful.

Dammit.

[Empking]

Empking: Why Furc?

Only one I had a glimmer of a chance to do something to. The fact that it didn't was probably a good thing in hindsight.

[Herodotus]

Just noticed Chronopie's beleg crumb on that page.

I don't think Andrius's Day 1 posts are useful for making connections between him and others. His "goon" role doesn't imply he started knowing he was scum any more than gandalf's role implied he started knowing he was town. If we want to figure out when he was scum, we should look at his level of enthusiasm for the game. He likes being town and dislikes being scum. During day 1, he was active, during day 4, he was prod dodging. Somewhere in between, he found out he was anti-town, and his play changed.
Fact: More than half of the length of Andrius's ISO is Day 1 (based on scrolling the page).

[Mastermind of Sin]

Hey all, sorry for the lack of posting. I've been away on vacation and forgot to report it to the mod, although I did tell him I'd be posting today when he prodded me yesterday (hence my being on the site briefly to repond to the pm). I'll give a free pass to the people who voted me for not posting, if only because they're people that clearly don't know anything about me. Thinking that I would avoid a game thread for any reason is just silly.

I am Turgon, Watcher.

Choices -

Night 1: kanyeknowsbest (No one targeted)
Night 2: SpyreX (No one targeted)
Night 3: Gut (No one targeted)
Night 4: Sun & Moon (No one targeted)

Each target was chosen because I felt they were fairly obviously town at that point and thus had a chance of being targeted by scum.

[Mastermind of Sin]

i had a scum read on him early on that has sort ofvsimmered in the background for awhile. i saw his switch to suddenly "kanyes just being retarded!" as odd. also he fits nicely into a mos/moi buddy theory i have. if you are town theres his sudden switch to mjaye is town right before an imminent looking lynch that is similar to his switch on me (guessing on the timing hard to check right now but i think my suspicions would be confirmed if i checked)

hi ludi : ]

BTW, never had time to respond to this yesterday since the day ended before I saw it.

Just in case you weren't sure about whether or not I have a history of white-knighting VIs, I direct you to the following ISO of a recently completed game:

MoS-town defending Palisade-VI

You'll note ISOs 17, 38, 39, 40, 41, 46, and so on.

[Regfan]

Overall, I feel worst about mjay from this flip. Can someone detail why they thought the flip made mjay townier?

My thinking Mjaye is townie has absolutely nothing to do with any flips, it has to do with me re-reading her argument/debate with me. I haven't gone back and done an interaction-check between Andrius and other players yet nor do I really plan to, not knowing when he received his role makes a lot of it futile.

I won't comment on MoS's claim until MoI responds.

[Amrun]

The obvious solution is to lynch someone else and have MoS watch me tonight.

[Gut]

Only if by obvious solution you meant 'The last optimal play we could reasonably make'.