MUNSCM - Abandoned

[ZONEACE]

I am going to have to agree with mathcam on this one. To give the power of Veto to 2 evil countries seems a bit, well insane and unbalanced. so mathcams plan is one i would vote for.

[Thoth]

I think I have a solution for the deployment of weapons inspectors and MABM that is a lot better.

We somehow determine a country A today(random or otherwise, but a country we know before the night) that will get the weapons inspectors results and where we also place the MABM. Next we let the chair randomly choose a country B to send the weapons inspectors to. This way we will always get a result unless B gets randomly nuked.

If the result is evil we of course nuke B. If the result is good we have a confirmed innocent. Tomorrow we then place MABM in B and send the weapons inspectors results to B as well. We let the chair randomly choose country C to be inspected by the weapons inspectors. This way we have another confirmed innocent C (unless he was found evil of course in which case we nuke him)
The night after that we let the chair randomly pick a country from B and C in which both MABM will be placed and to which the weapons inspectors results will be send. etc.

Possible starting cases:
A & B are both good. Things go according to this plan
A is good and B is evil. Nuke B and try again next night.
A is evil and B is good.
...If A lies we change a good for an evil and try again next night
...If A doesn't lie we still have the confirmed innocent.
A & B are both evil and A lies about B. This is the only problem case. Note that the chance of this scenario is only about 3%. The solution I think is best to cover this case as well is to investigate A on one of the later nights. If he turns out evil we then have to reinvestigate B.

[Thoth]

Darn, 2 posts while I was typing .

[Flying Dutchman]

You're all forgetting one thing: If we investigate an innocent veto power, and the MABM are deployed somewhere else, the investigated country is nuked that night, and we have one innocent veto country less. Oh yes, if we continue to do this, we probably end up with 2 veto powers alive, and one of them is likely to be scum!!!! I don't think finding 1 of the three evil members is worth losing all the veto countries.

But I've got a new idea (Unless you find a flaw I think i'll put it in my resolution): The investigated and result getting countries are known on the day, and the MABM will be placed randomly in one of these countries! The evil ones can try killing off one of them to avoid a confirmed innocent, but then they'll have a 50% chance of failing!

[PolarBoy]

mathcam's suggestion of inspecting a nation with veto power and then sending the report to another so empowered nation seems logical. If the axis of evil had one nation in that position we could still eliminate it easily as a nation cannot veto a resolution that directly names it, whereas if two had that power they could veto for each-other. Of course this wouldn't make it impossible for the axis to have 2 or even 3 or 4 members in that position, as we could simply name all of them in one resolution. Something like:

1. Requires nuclear strike on nation x
2. Requires later nuclear strike tommorow on nation y

So what this adds up to is that we must be prepared for the possibility of concentration of the axis in a position of power.

Another question has occured to me. Should the chair report who was inspected to us? It is not even a question whether he should report who was protected. In the case that the mafia failed in their attack, such a report would be valuable in locating another innocent. But knowing who was inspected may not be a good thing. Obviously the nation receiving the report should know, but keeping such knowledge from the public has the potential to also keep it from the axis of evil. If the receiver of the report is also kept anonymous then the delegate can prevent a strike on an innocent nation without necessarily making them a target for destruction.

I'll have to think about this some more.

[Flying Dutchman]

Of course this wouldn't make it impossible for the axis to have 2 or even 3 or 4 members in that position, as we could simply name all of them in one resolution. Something like:

4. If any member nation with the power of veto votes against a resolution or ammendment it fails, UNLESS that resolution or ammendment explcitly names that nation and only that nation.

If more than 1 player is named in a resolution, no-one loses their veto right.

[EnPaceRequiescat]

You're all forgetting one thing: If we investigate an innocent veto power, and the MABM are deployed somewhere else, the investigated country is nuked that night, and we have one innocent veto country less. Oh yes, if we continue to do this, we probably end up with 2 veto powers alive, and one of them is likely to be scum!!!! I don't think finding 1 of the three evil members is worth losing all the veto countries.

But I've got a new idea (Unless you find a flaw I think i'll put it in my resolution): The investigated and result getting countries are known on the day, and the MABM will be placed randomly in one of these countries! The evil ones can try killing off one of them to avoid a confirmed innocent, but then they'll have a 50% chance of failing!

wait... do we get to know what a country was when they get nuked? I can't find it in cs's first two posts. And in Thoth's plan, the random country to be inspected isn't necessarily evil. However, my only problem with that is that we don't know. So I'm leaning on polarboy's MABM/inspection mechanism, with the countries being chosen using mathcam's plan, with the veto power countries. This might change if I can find whether we get "dead" countries' positions.

[mathcam]

The evil ones can try killing off one of them to avoid a confirmed innocent, but then they'll have a 50% chance of failing!

I'm trying to decide if this is a good addition to the plan or not. If we automatically protect the coutnry being investigated, and send the results to a randomly selected veto-power country, they only have a 1 in 4 chance of killing a useful target....so they have a 75% chance of failing. So I think the plan in my original statement was best.

PB, you bring up an interesting point. I think, however, that there are less possibilities for us to get royally screwed if the inspectee was made public each time. Otherwise, we might lose all of our information in an unfortunate night kill. While I definitely see the merits of the opposite arrangement, the pros of having one person know an innocent just aren't very heavy in comparision.

Is there any strong opposition to the current plan?

Cam

[mathcam]

Sorry for the double post. EPR: I don't know this for sure, but I believe Cuban will tell us the motive of a country when it's nuked. You could always PM him, though.

Cam

[PolarBoy]

Point taken Flying Dutchman. I guess that means that only one evil nation has veto. Therefore mathcam's plan of inspecting one veto power nation and sending the report to another.

A brief note about statistics. If we select a random nation with veto power to investigate another nation with veto power, the odds are as follows:

7/24, Innocent finds innocent
1/6, Innocent finds guilty
1/6, Guilty finds innocent

Obviously a Lepton's Gambit is not possible if the guilty nation receives the report, since insanity and paranoia are not part of the equation, so we can assume that a quilty nation would tell the truth and say that the report came up innocent. This means that if the chair reveals who was investigated and who received the report, we can be sure of confirming an innocent or finding a guilty, with an 11/24 odds of finding an innocent.

On the other hand we waste a lot of time(like 6 days) if there is no evil nation with veto power. Then again this plan was mainly for the short term while we don't know anything. As the game progresses we can assume that we'll have more information.

So basically as long as our investigator and investigatee don't get nuked(Not entirely unlikely I'm afraid), we're in good shape.

Do we have any leads for our nuke today?

[mathcam]

7/24, Innocent finds innocent
1/6, Innocent finds guilty
1/6, Guilty finds innocent

This is assuming what...that there's exactly one evil in the veto-powered nations? If so, shouldn't these fractions add up to 1? What happened to the other 9/24?

Cam

[PolarBoy]

gahhh...you're right. My math is bunk. I'll have to go over it again.

[mathcam]

There's a 1/5 chance the investigation finds guilty...and thus the receiver has to be innocent, so:

1/5 Innocent finds guilty.

4/5 of the time, the investigation will find innocent, and 1/4 of that time, the receiver will be guilty. So I think:

1/5 innocent finds guilty
1/5 guilty finds innocent
3/5 innocent find innocent

I agree with your claim that guilty would not lie, however, so our only worry is that the

receiver

gets killed overnight. This happens 1 in 4... so we'll have a confirmed innocent tomorrow among the veto powers with probability 75%.

Cam

[mathcam]

Sorry, we'll have an essentially confirmed motive tomorrow with 75%:

We'll have an essentially confirmed innocent 60%, and an essentially confirmed guilty 15%. (The other 25% chance is that the receiving power is killed and we get nothing).

Cam

[mathcam]

Sorry, we'll have an essentially confirmed motive tomorrow with 75%:

We'll have an essentially confirmed innocent 60%, and an essentially confirmed guilty 15%. (The other 25% chance is that the receiving power is killed and we get nothing).

Cam

[Flying Dutchman]

Don't post any maths, i'm working on it, posting soon!!!

(Mathcam is incorrect too, I think!)

[Flying Dutchman]

A brief note about statistics. If we select a random nation with veto power to investigate another nation with veto power, the odds are as follows:

7/24, Innocent finds innocent
1/6, Innocent finds guilty
1/6, Guilty finds innocent

I don't know how you get your statistics, but IMHO:
(Assuming 5 Veto Powers, one evil)

T = random Town
M = Mafia
R = Receiver Report
I = Investigated

Receiver Report, Investigated, Mafia Kill
M, T, I: 5%
M, T, T: 15%
T, T, I: 15%
T, T, R: 15%
T, T, T: 30%
T, M, R: 5%
T, M, T: 15%

So we have:
15% chance of succesfully locating Mafia this way, and that's what we realy need.

30% chance of succesfully finding a confirmed innocent this way
15% chance the Mafia gets the report, and confirms they found an innocent (If they say they found Mafia, we will lynch Town, but he's dead next day, and it's too early in the game to see that happening)

So we have

60%

chance we have a good result tomorrow!

20% chance the receiver won't live long enought to tell us the result of the investigation.
20% chance Town is found, but the confirmed innocent gets killed. This won't say us anything about the alignment of the receiver of the report, because everyone will say they found an innocent.

OK, next we put the MABM in:
(I won't put all the maths here from now on, I just give the chance of getting a good result):
Placing the MABM in a random Veto Power:

68% chance

Placing the MABM in either the receiving or the investigated Country:

80% chance

NOTE: A good result here is when both the Investigator and the Investigated survive the night.

[PolarBoy]

I pulled those statistics out of my butt. I tried working the whole thing out in my head beause I thought it was a less complex problem than it really is. I should double check before I post more often.

[massive]

You know, statistics are all nice and all, but they're a smokescreen. They don't provide any real, helpful information - they just possibilities. Well, like, we already know all the possibilities, so big whoop. They present themselves as helpful information when they don't have any factual basis to them. So all three of you gain hearty FOS'es from me.

[Flying Dutchman]

You know, statistics are all nice and all, but they're a smokescreen. They don't provide any real, helpful information - they just possibilities. Well, like, we already know all the possibilities, so big whoop. They present themselves as helpful information when they don't have any factual basis to them. So all three of you gain hearty FOS'es from me.

Well, if some idea's look good, I prefer to know how the odds are on each one, and now I know what I want tonight with the MABM and Inspections team.

The only problem is the nuking today...... We can't force roleclaims with threatening to lynch, so it would realy become a random target. This is not likely to do us much good.

On the other hand, we're probably tomorrow in the same situation as today, and being sitting ducks untill we find someone guilty is probably not the best way to play this.........

[mathcam]

FD, you're misunderstanding the current plan. Under the current plan, there is no chance that the confirmed innocent is killed because they are protected. in fact, the disparity between the 60% chance in your scenario and the 75% chance in my scenario is exactly why we should doc-protect whoever we investigate.

Cam

[massive]

I think (at the very least) if we can't decide on a good, interactive way to determine where to send the MABM, that it should be randomly assigned among the veto countries. It makes sense that the Axis of Evil would want to strike there first, as it most likely prevents them from making game-changing propositions.

[mathcam]

I don't see any flaws in sending the MABM to wherever we investigate. That way we have a very good chance of getting concrete information in the morning.

Cam

[PolarBoy]

My point exactly. If we send the MABM to the country we investigate then the only event in which we don't get evidence is if the country receiving the report gets nuked. Even if an axis member receives the report we still get to confirm an innocent.

[Thoth]

We also don't get it if the country receiving the report is scum. As we're not informed who that country is they can just keep the results to themselves.
That's why I think we should place the MABM in the country that's going to receive the report.