New York 146 Zach's Insane Mafia World (OVER)

[Ghostlin]

EBWOP: You have to read 174 in a sarcastic tone of voice.

[Ghostlin]

Scumreads would be DV and redFF...and DY a stand-by at 3rd if neither of them flip SK

It's impossible, in any universe unless DY's role is not sane, for DV to be a SK. I can explain the logic to you if you like.

[redFF]

@redFF....you say you are fairly sure Kamrun implied they were going to block you. Can you show where?

i have no motivation to, i know i was blocked. if you think i'm lying then it's your job to show why.

[Ghostlin]

Right. So, let's do this. I want everyone to think for a minute and tell me how likely they think that a full bodyguard, a two shot Doc and a JK are all in the game together. If you're answer is 'not very likely', then I feel for PoE purposes we should focus on red and MoI today.

[DarthYoshi]

Scumreads would be DV and redFF...and DY a stand-by at 3rd if neither of them flip SK

It's impossible, in any universe unless DY's role is not sane, for DV to be a SK. I can explain the logic to you if you like.

Pretty sure sanity is guaranteed for investigative roles in Normal games (notwithstanding roles like Godfather that return false negatives).

Also, Ghosty's #178 is actually sensible, on second thought.

I'll have more later.

[Alicewondering]

i have no motivation to, i know i was blocked. if you think i'm lying then it's your job to show why.

No motivation, eh?

VOTE: redFF

Ghostlin, who are your scumreads? I still think that MOI is town from his posting. If we are to go after redFF/MOI, I'd go for redFF, which I have no problem with.

[Alicewondering]

I am reading carefully Alice...I still do not understand where DV's question is coming from. The "DY killed/roleblocked me?" part specifically.

Maybe it was me saying that DY was a mafia goon or roleblocker.

[Zachrulez]

http://www.mediafire.com/?755w6qt6hbaguuk
http://www.mediafire.com/?6h53bj95k24uh56
http://www.mediafire.com/?r6169zl68ba6s8v

I think these are pages 63, 64, and 68.

[jon_h61]

@ RedFF Could you explain this to me? "Fairly sure they heavily implied they were going to block me again, if not outright saying it." From Post 161

[DeasVail]

Alice: Thanks for pointing out Fitz's ridiculous (which I'm having a hard time seeing as anything but scummy right now), but why haven't you answered my question?

DY is really scummy, but I don't know what to do with him.

Top scumreads: Fitz and DY I guess.

I agree with Ghostlin about MoI and RedFF, but I am thinking it not so unlikely that both are town.

MoI's interactions with me anyway are not any different from what I'd expect from him as town and his play is the same. However, there's nothing about him that screams town to me. The most scummy thing is his claimed role. A two-shot doc seems like a strange role to have in this set-up considering no other X-shots and generally quite alternative roles. How early/late in the claiming order did MoI claim? One thing possibly in his favour and not in RedFF's if MoI claimed early is that the 2-shot doc claim is more risky than the bodyguard claim.

After looking at things, I'm seeing RedFF as probable town because he claimed to have been protecting muffin after Alice claimed not to have tracked him and without knowing that Kamrun jailkept him (unless Jason watched him and managed to communicate it). I don't see why RedFF would have claimed this as scum, and think it more likely he's town.

What I really want to know is what others think of my thoughts.

[Zachrulez]

1st vote count of day 5:

Havingfitz - 1 (redFF)
redff - 1 (Alicewondering)

Not Voting: (MagnaofIllusion, havingfitz, Ghostlin, DarthYoshi, Jon_h61, Snakeplissken, DeasVail, Nobody Special)

With 10 alive it's 6 to lynch.

Day 5 will end no later than Friday, April 13th at 6pm CST

[Zachrulez]

Snakeplissken has been prodded.

[havingfitz]

OK…so re-reading a bit since as Alice has been so kind to point out I have missed a few connections.

Darth – I recall you mentioning the possibility of there being 4 scum…but I assumed you were referring to mafia and not including the potential SK your role would suggest. Did you ever voice the opinion that we were in a 14:4 set up and can you provide where you have mentioned repeatedly that your role is a red herring (at least prior to me bringing it up earlier today). I’ll ISO you after I make this post to check your post–crash commentary but I can’t recall you saying you thought your role was a red herring (i.e. essentially useless).

@redFF...I know you are lacking in motivation but could you try to answer the question I had to you regarding why you “half-hoped” Kamrun would get killed while blocking you?

Re: posts 162-169…..nevermind.

Re: post 171…nice OMGUS vote once I come out questioning you and your bodyguard status. Questions which have yet to be addressed due to your motivation level. Also…I do not recall you having any specific suspicions towards me pre-crash. Or DY for that matter. And you are willing to lynch Snake. Don’t we have enough incriminating info on the players who are posting to not have to do what would be essentially a blindly lynching a lurker lynch? And you express suspicions towards both of us while avoiding the player you had voted yesterday. Here is another question you can may or may not decide to bother with; what is your current read on DV? Do you think jason’s flip clears him?

@Ghostlin…My point was that if either of my main suspects (or anyone else for that matter) was to flip sk while DY still remained alive in the game…then DY would switch from an ever increasing subject of interest for me to a confirmed town. Yes…if DY is telling the truth that flip wouldn’t be from DV but it could still be red or anyone else who might be lynched or nk’d. However, The further we go without a 2 nd kill or an sk flip the more I doubt DY’s claim.

And red in unmotivated. Nice. BTW…why are you voting me?

Re: Ghosltin’s post 178…I had not given that any thought. I try not to get caught up in role speculation if I can help it. But since you asked, if there is a sk I would say the three roles are possible. I would still be up for a push on redFF as I could see him being scum (aside from your role speculation thoughts) or perhaps the elusive and rarely seen Insane Mafia World sk. Which! As a light dawns on me after typing the previous sentence….could the title of this game indicate some sort of shenanigans on the mod’s part relating to the sanity of some of our PRs?

@DV….I retract my question regarding your killed/roleblocked comments. Mea culpa. That said, I still think you are scummy as f*ck. Just your post 184 alone is scummy. It comes across indecisive and longing for confirmation (ie permission).

“DY is really scummy, but I don’t know what to do with him.”

WTF? How about a vote for someone you suspect (anticipating incoming DV vote). You list me as a top scumread. No surprise there given your scum hunting tactic of ‘so and so looked at me funny…THEY”RE SCUM!’ But why not vote me? Then you agree with the suspicions towards redFF and MOI (ie anyone but you) (still no vote) and end with a pretty please to everyone asking for validation of your thoughts.

Regarding those thoughts: I think a 2-shot doc is too specific of a role to be faked, and given the JK and the potential bodyguard PRs…could be a weakened mitigation for two killing factions. As I say above…if there turns out to be no sk I would support the logic in doubting all three PR claims are legit. As for the x-shot comment, if there is in fact a sk…who’s to say it isn’t an x-shot variety?

Also…do you have any reason for me being one of your top scumreads other than that I suspect you?

---

I haven’t had a chance to look over the 3 pages Zach put up (I’m on my phone). Can someone perhaps summarize any important points?

BTW mod…seriously…can we get a replacement for Snake? Also…would you happen to still have any of your initial posts from this game or any of the pre-crash death scenes?

[havingfitz]

EBWOP: VOTE: redFF

[SnakePlissken]

VOTE: redff

[redFF]

An OMGUS from hf and snake, what a townish wagon.

[MagnaofIllusion]

If as a whole Town decides it needs to be either redFF or me I’ll vote for redFF. But until we get a mass consensus from that I’m dropping this vote

VOTE: Snake

After Post 189 I see no reason it isn’t a good reason. No comment about ANYTHING from yesterday?

--

Everyone, top two scumreads go. Mine are DY and redFF as mentioned before.

At this point – Snake / Having (from the VT pool) and redFF / DarthYoshi from the claimed PR pool.

--

And yes, my tone was hella frustrated. Your result should clear me as town, but instead you're coming up with a hyper-specific hypothetical to push my lynch. Without that hypothetical, I HAVE to be town, regardless of whether you like my crumb or not.

YOU ARE PUSHING MY LYNCH BASED ON SOMETHING THAT IS COMPLETE, 100% SPECULATION.

So you bet your boots I'm not happy about it.

Yeah, I’ll just point out that you pushing this hard that “ALICE’S RESULT SHOULD CLEAR ME 100%” is pretty rubbish for obvious reasons.

The bolded, however, I will come back to in a minute.

2. I can't comment definitively. If the "Why are you alive" question is unanswerable on your end, then "Why did the scum target X or Y" is equally unanswerable from my end. If we are going to play that game, though, camn dying N1 should be a finger in your direction because she pushed for your lynch at least as hard as I did, if not harder.

This quote is an example why the bolded above doesn’t sit well with me at all. Your entire line of suspicion today is basically 100% speculation –

1. Why is MoI alive look at his title.
2. Camn’s death points 100% to you.

Camn’s death points to that she was perceived as a threat by her killers. Your argument here dismissed any other players who were on her radar (which we unfortunately can’t really review, funny how that works huh) or the fact that muffin himself was a much bigger pusher of MoI than camn was Day 1. But certainly dismiss those elements in crafting your suspicion.

You can’t have your cake and eat it too chief. You don’t get to ascribe Nightkill WIFOM logic in a way that damns me re: camn and then turn around and dismiss the fact that me being alive doesn’t make sense (in that active power-roles are bigger targets).

This is embarrassing. I forgot about that until you posted that. I investigated DV because of the speculation from you and others about him as an SK candidate and had forgotten that Ghosty wanted to direct my action.

So you are saying that you just completely forgot that you agreed to a redFF scan (the only player, at that stage given the claims we have, that made any sense as a Serial Killer) and got distracted by end of Day talk?

There’s a level of, for lack of a better word, inherent incompetence in this explanation I am not sure I buy. I know you aren’t incompetent.

--

MoI, why did you think it at all possible that I could have been killed N1?

From memory – you had fought off pretty obviously bad pushes from several players Day 1. That’s all I can directly reference from Day 1 since I didn’t start QTing my thoughts on games until AFTER this one started.

I’ll be frank – had RedCoyote not explodified himself he was my protect choice 100%. After the abrupt ending to the day with my number 1 obv-Town choice dead and my second most likely choice (Palisade) looking like prime mislynch bait Day 2 I figured you were the best shot I had for a successful protect.

--

So I've got two confirmed town IMO (Ghostlin and Alice) and no one else. The next closest sure thing for me would be MOI (I think he is town...partly for his play and partly for his claim).

So sticking by your claim that Ghostlin is confirmed Town due to stupid reasons?

Ghostlin’s a Town read but this smells of continued “buddy up” to me.

--

Lack of SK makes DY look worse and worse. Him not investigating me when he promised to also seems weird.
speculation: If DY is scum, he's probably going to have to fake a guilty at some point to avoid lynch. Perhaps dy didn't "investigate" me because he plans on fakeclaiming a guilty tomorrow.

Doesn’t make any sense. Hypo-scum DY has already floated the “my role is a Red Herring” excuse to make sure he never needs to come up with a Guilty result. No reason for DY to commit to what you are asserting as a ‘fake’ guilty when it means he takes the noose the next day as likely scum.

[havingfitz]

An OMGUS from hf and snake, what a townish wagon.

I agree it would be nice to know what Snake is thinking...a contribution of his reasoning/opinions would be nice. You can take your OMGUS accusation of me however and place it somewhere dark. Feel free to answer my questions while you are at it. (BTW...nice response time considering you are ~v/la)

Preview edit...ffs sake MOI. How my town read on Ghost anymore buddying than yours. At least I have provided reasoning (despite your opinion of it). I don't re all your reasoning...was it gut? Cause gut it a lot weaker than what I have.

[redFF]

what does me being v/la (which ends today) have to do with whether I'm scummy or not?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok now my general thoughts -

Updated Claims List

–

DarthYoshi: FBI Agent
Alice: Tracker

MOI: 2 Shot Doctor
RedFF: Bodyguard
Ghostlin: Neighborizer – N1 - camn / N2 – Kamrun / N3 - ???

Thor/Jon: VT
DV: VT
Havingfitz: VT
Nobody Special: VT
Snake VT

Already Flipped

–

IAI – Mafia Goon
Jason – Mafia Watcher
ZMuffin – Vanilla Cop
Kamrun - Jailkeeper
RC / Camn / Palisade / Baseline – VT

Alice is also pretty much confirmed Town – the only way that isn’t the case is if we have multiple scum teams somehow (in which case we’re back to the WTF happened to all the kills question which makes it completely unlikely).

DarthYoshi’s role sticks out like a sore thumb at this point given we already have two confirmed Town information roles. So it’s either a Red Herring role meant throw a monkey wrench into various actual investigation role (working like a Miller for muffin, possible decoy role for Mafia Watcher) or a fake-claim meant to extend his life-span in the game.

My number 1 take-away though revolves around the order of deaths – muffin dying before Kamrun or Alice is significant in my mind.

We know from IAI that muffin would return a non-Vanilla results. We know that muffin would catch any scum who had claimed anything but power-role.

Alice can catch any scum taking action when they logically shouldn’t be as justified by their role (including Nightkills).

Kamrun could stop a Nightkill with the right choice of target (both offensively or defensively).

So muffin dying immediately after the mass claim despite the ‘protection’ that redFF was slated to provide says to me the following –

1. Mafia were not worried about the protection. Which means very likely there is a role-blocker floating about (or redFF is Mafia).
2. muffin was perceived as the biggest threat to scum.

Looking at this I’m myself inclined to want to lynch the most suspect players inside the VT pool. And of that pool I most suspect Snake / Having / NS.

I’ll be reviewing what I can of this thread, the bits recovered from the prior thread and known end of Day wagons for some MoIputer analysis in the next few days.

[havingfitz]

what does me being v/la (which ends today) have to do with whether I'm scummy or not?

It doesn't. I find you scummy regardless of whether you are able to promptly respond to votes you receive while you're v/la.

[Nobody Special]

I don't like the avoiding, the lack of content with the vote, or much of anything.

Vote: Snake

[DeasVail]

Vote: Havingfitz

I didn't like how he ultimately decided to vote Jason yesterday. He presented it as the logical choice when it wasn't.

I found his reaction to my questions to Alice really bad.

And even after saying that Jason being mafia makes me less likely, he still insists that I'm scum.

Fitz: Why are you so condescending regarding my scumhunting methods. My reads have mostly been correct so far.

[havingfitz]

Vote: Havingfitz

@DV….I retract my question regarding your killed/roleblocked comments. Mea culpa. That said, I still think you are scummy as f*ck. Just your post 184 alone is scummy. It comes across indecisive and longing for confirmation (ie permission).

“DY is really scummy, but I don’t know what to do with him.”

WTF? How about a vote for someone you suspect

(anticipating incoming DV vote).

You list me as a top scumread. No surprise there given your scum hunting tactic of ‘so and so looked at me funny…THEY”RE SCUM!’ But why not vote me? Then you agree with the suspicions towards redFF and MOI (ie anyone but you) (still no vote) and end with a pretty please to everyone asking for validation of your thoughts.

Also…do you have any reason for me being one of your top scumreads other than that I suspect you?

Called that. Care to answer my question?

I didn't like how he ultimately decided to vote Jason yesterday. He presented it as the logical choice when it wasn't.

Apparently you haven't been reading carefully either. I voted you yesterday.

I found his reaction to my questions to Alice really bad.

I've acknowledged I missed the connection between her comments and your question.

And even after saying that Jason being mafia makes me less likely, he still insists that I'm scum.

You conveniently left out the part of the same sentence where I say, re: jason scum flip, "I do not think this necessarily clears DV." An opinion which I am not alone in.

Fitz: Why are you so condescending regarding my scumhunting methods. My reads have mostly been correct so far.

You've completely ridden any wagon you weren't the subject of. D1 ended with you on DY (still TBD). D2 you hammered Palisade without any reasonable rationale (ie you were wrong) after spending much of the day on DY (YBD) and Snake (TBD). D3 you put a save yourself L-1 vote on IAI and got lucky. I do not recall you suspecting him prior to your vote. And yesterday was a 1v1 after jason claimed he saw you visit muffin. So your record is by no means "mostly correct." You have been in self defense/self preservation mode throughout the entire game. If I'm coming across as condescending towards your scumhunting methods it's becuase I think they are crap. They literally are focused on anyone who suspects you. coupled with your willingness to place a fakeclaim, your unwillingness to be tracked, and indecisiveness...I think you are scummy. The only reasons I'm not voting you now are 1)slight reprieve due to the D4 1v1 thing and 2)redFF is scummier ATT.

[Alicewondering]

I don't actually think HF is scum. I had my doubts before, but his posting after D1 has been to my satisfaction.