New York 146 Zach's Insane Mafia World (OVER)

[Alicewondering]

I'm not comfortable lynching someone a flipped scum JUST set up a 1v1 with..

It makes no sense, even if jason had managed to get DV lynched, jason would have died so soon it wouldn't have been worth it..

Look, here's the thing, Jason was basically conf-scum. If DV is scum, a DV flip would have cleared Jason completely in town's eyes supposedly. Probably, scum wanted to keep their watcher around, though why they would after a massclaim is beyond me. If DV isn't scum, then at least they would have gotten one townie lynched.

[redFF]

Look, here's the thing, Jason was basically conf-scum. If DV is scum, a DV flip would have cleared Jason completely in town's eyes supposedly.

If jason was basically conf-scum, and a dv scumflip would have cleared him in town's eyes, how come a jason scumflip has not cleared DV in town's eyes? Why would scum possibly sacrifice a member under relatively little suspicion for their watcher to live for maybe 1 more night? It makes very little sense.

[Alicewondering]

People who commented or implied that Jason/DV's alignnments are no necessarily opposite: HF, redFF, DY, Ghostlin. If DV is scum, these people are probtown.

More evidence for Jason/DV partners bussing:

Also, the DV/Jason interaction reads like two actors performing a play: DV's not showing any outrage or even what I'll call a 'LOLWUT' response (which isn't necessarily a Town tell, but would be expected in this) and Jason is really smug, particularly with the above post of 'See, I caught DV! You can't lynch me now, I'm so OMG town.'

Are there other people who are reading the same thing?

Ghostlin made a good point here that seems to be accurate.

OH NO YOU DIDN'T

Vote: Jason

Why are people voting with him?

Is it just me, or does this sound fake as shit?

What I don't get is why people are siding with obvscum Jason against me...

Why would I express a problem with being tracked if I was going to undertake the kill?

I really don't want to be the mislynch here, so I ask that you lynch Jason.

Doesn't feel like townie outrage here.

Also, why would I set up a direct one on one, as scum with so many left still in the game?

knowing full well if DV flips town I am done for?

that makes no sense, even for scum to do. It basically screws me to lie about it, putting me in a 1 on 1 I can be caught out on with his flip. Towards end of game, yes makes sense.... but right now? If I am lying, I am hung tomorrow. I have nothing to gain from lying about it.

Goddamn. He knows that DV will flip scum.


---- DV SCUM:

Wait, Alice: Did Jason claim that IaI was the second person that targeted him?

This is totally wrong, and I have no idea why he would ask this. I'm so confused, and need to think more about what this means.

Magna, I see nothing wrong with wanting intent to hammer. It is a small request if I'm about to be lynched I think. I may even fabricate a claim.

I'm sure there's some interaction somewhere that makes it impossible for me to be scum with Jason.

==== NS SCUM:

jason: Can you reiterate, please, why you're wiling to sacrifice yourself to save a potential town power role?

WTF is this.

If I were to say something along the lines of "Alice is not necessarily conftown" -- how would that be received?

It's nothing I can put my finger on right this second, and I'd have to read Alice & jason in iso together, but I could see her actions as very hard bussing.

I'll look into this later. I'd like to see night results first, though.

He says later that he's going to ISO me and that he thinks I'm not town, but he backs off that immediately after it receives no support. He never ISO's me, nor MOI, whom he said he was going to.
==== MISC

There was talk of RedFF as a SK early in the game.

This is why redFF is probtown.

PEDIT:

If jason was basically conf-scum, and a dv scumflip would have cleared him in town's eyes, how come a jason scumflip has not cleared DV in town's eyes? Why would scum possibly sacrifice a member under relatively little suspicion for their watcher to live for maybe 1 more night? It makes very little sense.

Because there's a good chance Jason would have been bussing. If DV-scum flipped scum, it would have confirmed Jason for almost the rest of the game. That's why it makes sense.

[Alicewondering]

Probably leaning towards a DV vote at this point actually XP, with all the implication from Jason about a 1v1

[redFF]

Because there's a good chance Jason would have been bussing. If DV-scum flipped scum, it would have confirmed Jason for almost the rest of the game. That's why it makes sense.

I don't think it would. Jason's scumflip hasn't cleared DV, why would it work the other way around?

[jon_h61]

I'm willing to move my vote to either NS or DV. I gave reasons earlier and will be willing to restate them if asked. I'm sure I'd be parroting mostly things already mentioned by others though.

[Alicewondering]

I don't think it would. Jason's scumflip hasn't cleared DV, why would it work the other way around?

Honestly, would you have doubted Jason's alignment when he "caught DV"?

[jon_h61]

I wrote up a post the other day, but didn't post it, I deferred to MOI's opinion of DV. A Reader's Digest version of previous post: His scum hunting tactics, him always finding anybody who mentions him as scum, him asking who he says are scum for advice, his AtEs, etc...
More specific things, he starts off calling HF and NS as Town. Later accuses both of being scum. Him trying to say Ghostlin was distancing his votes from Jason. His asking if NS is too helpful to be Town. The only thing NS had done was try to tentavely push a scum claim on Alice. In P158 he says he doesn't act erratically as scum, he only acts erratically as Town? He keeps trying to push suspicion on people with little to no evidence, scum do that.

[Alicewondering]

Not to mention his feelings about scum-DY.

[DeasVail]

Alice, why have you turned against me?

Also, do you have an alt?

[DeasVail]

I wrote up a post the other day, but didn't post it, I deferred to MOI's opinion of DV. A Reader's Digest version of previous post: His scum hunting tactics, him always finding anybody who mentions him as scum, him asking who he says are scum for advice, his AtEs, etc...
More specific things, he starts off calling HF and NS as Town. Later accuses both of being scum. Him trying to say Ghostlin was distancing his votes from Jason. His asking if NS is too helpful to be Town. The only thing NS had done was try to tentavely push a scum claim on Alice. In P158 he says he doesn't act erratically as scum, he only acts erratically as Town? He keeps trying to push suspicion on people with little to no evidence, scum do that.

Well obviously town do that too.... /goes and checks role PM

Where did I ask who I think is scum for advice?

Jon, which of my suspicions do you feel dissatisfied with?

Who hasn't mentioned me that I can call scum?

How is anything else you've mentioned even relevant?

[Alicewondering]

Alice, why have you turned against me?

Also, do you have an alt?

I haven't turned against you. You haven't been (strongly) town since D3. No I don't have an alt.

[Alicewondering]

EBWODP, oh. I see why you asked that question. I've only played game with you in which you were scum. Just kidding. If you count this one, my math is right though

[DeasVail]

Alice, I'm concerned because if DY is scum, it's unlikely he'll get lynched.

I don't know if I can, but I'll try and explain my initial reaction. Basically throughout the game, Jason has made cheeky, snide attacks at me which have irritated me greatly. So seeing his claim that he saw me kill whoever it was was quite hilarious for me. Actually I don't think that makes sense, so all I can say I guess is that I'm town and my reaction was thus from town.

[redFF]

I don't think it would. Jason's scumflip hasn't cleared DV, why would it work the other way around?

Honestly, would you have doubted Jason's alignment when he "caught DV"?

What's the difference between that and doubting DV's alignment now?

[Zachrulez]

5th vote count of day 5:

redff - 3 (havingfitz, Snakeplissken, Jon_h61)
DarthYoshi - 2 (DeasVail, Nobody Special)
Nobody Special - 2 (redFF, Alicewondering)
Snakeplissken - 1 (MagnaofIllusion)
MagnaofIllusion - 1 (DarthYoshi)

Not Voting: (Ghostlin)

With 10 alive it's 6 to lynch.

Day 5 will end no later than Friday, April 13th at 6pm CST

[Alicewondering]

I don't think it would. Jason's scumflip hasn't cleared DV, why would it work the other way around?

Honestly, would you have doubted Jason's alignment when he "caught DV"?

What's the difference between that and doubting DV's alignment now?

The likelihood that the scumteam would sacrifice a player without a lot of suspicion for a player who was conf scum is low, which is why it could have been a good play for scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Eh, I think it has some merit, for sure. But I think it was more of a case of Muffin being more obvtown than any other claimed PR. With Jason still unflipped, there was a chance that scum could get me mislynched. When Kamrun died, my thought was that I was less obvtown than Kamrun. Now then, let's turn to NS, who suggested early in the day that he didn't think I was necessarily obvtown. I hadn't really considered the NKs, but now, I think that this was potentially scum testing waters for my mislynch.

I see what you are saying here and don’t necessarily disagree. We really aren’t going to have any real idea til endgame what the true NK motivations were. I just can’t quite wrap my head around the Mafia leaving you (who can track ANY scum to a Nightkill target and ruin their day) alive over Muffin (who can only bust fake-claimers).

NS’s play is pretty objectively bad. Just like Snake’s. I am really feeling crippled without the ability to ISO players from prior days and look at vote-counts. I think separating the ‘wheat form the chaff” as it were in finding the scum I feel are in the VTs lies in the past posts we don’t have access to.

I commented on this yesterday, and this is not addressed to me, but I feel like I should add in here that it is HIGHLY likely mafia took a gambit here and counterwagoned DV to make it look like their alignments were opposite. It's actually genius, especially since if DV got lynched and flipped scum, it basically guaranteed that Jason was town watcher. If Jason got flipped as scum, DV would supposedly be conf-town, though that was not really true. I think I'm going to reread how that day went to see who supported which wagon and how they did it

Let’s look at how the Day went yesterday in the form of Vote-Counts –

1st vote count of day 4:

JasonT1981 - 3 (DarthYoshi, Alicewondering, MagnaofIllusion)

2nd vote count of day 4:

JasonT1981 - 5 (DarthYoshi, Alicewondering, MagnaofIllusion, Kamrun, DeasVai)
DeasVail - 3 (JasonT1981, Ghostlin, redFF)

JasonT1981 - 5 (Alicewondering, MagnaofIllusion, Kamrun, DeasVail, Jon_h61)
DeasVail - 5 (JasonT1981, Ghostlin, redFF, DarthYoshi, havingfitz)

JasonT1981 - 7 (Alicewondering, MagnaofIllusion, Kamrun, DeasVail, Jon_h61, Nobody Special, Ghostlin)
DeasVail - 4 (JasonT1981, redFF, DarthYoshi, havingfitz)

For purposes of this discussion I’ve stripped out the players who were not on either wagon. If both Deas and Jason end up being Mafia scum anyone who stayed away the entire time is probably more likely to be Town IMO just from the standpoint that they didn’t ‘chose a side’ as it were. Scum would know that either flip would be ‘good’ for their cred and would be less likely to avoid taking a stance.

So the initial wagon on Jason is made up of – Darth / Alice / MoI

Kamrun joins the Jason wagon while Ghostlin and redFF form the early Deas counterwagon with Jason.

The third VC shows the wagons reaching equality at 5 votes with Darth changing from Jason to Deas and being joined by having (along with Ghostlin and redFF).

So if you are looking for the ‘scum’ who really drove the counter-wagon your pool of likely candidates is Ghostlin, redFF, Darth and having.

Now given that we at likely looking at most 5 Mafians with 2 dead (IAI and Jason) and Deas a third at most that leaves 2 others to help fuel this plan you are discussing. Do you think scum could pull it off without those two both being committed to making the counterwagon viable?

[DeasVail]

Magna, I do think that Muffin would have been considered more dangerous because he could confirm VT claims as town or scum.

[Alicewondering]

Now given that we at likely looking at most 5 Mafians with 2 dead (IAI and Jason) and Deas a third at most that leaves 2 others to help fuel this plan you are discussing. Do you think scum could pull it off without those two both being committed to making the counterwagon viable?

Hmm. I'm thinking. I'm not entirely convinced it is a 5 person scumteam though..

[Nobody Special]

Just popping in to mention that I'm going out of town for two days. Be back Friday morning.

[SnakePlissken]

Mod - sorry I'm going to have to request replacement. I'm not getting on the site very much currently due to IRL issues + I have my next modded game about to start. Sorry to all.

[havingfitz]

Mod - sorry I'm going to have to request replacement. I'm not getting on the site very much currently due to IRL issues + I have my next modded game about to start. Sorry to all.

1) The mod has been looking to replace you since this past Saturday.
2) So you have time to mod a game but not time to continue ignoring this game?

Thanks for replacing in

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hmm. I'm thinking. I'm not entirely convinced it is a 5 person scumteam though..

If you don't think that there are 5 scum your "Jason and Deas were counter-wagons as scum" theory is really getting strained to the brink. That would require the strong 5 person counter-wagon on Deas to only be fueled by the max of 2 scum - Jason and the 4th remaining scum.

Which makes your vote on NS make no sense then as he can't be part of the 'scum team' arranging that scum-on-scum counterwagon.

I'm really not sure your theory holds up under a 4 person Mafia team.

And I have my doubts about the viability of a 4 personal Mafia team without a Serial Killer set-up wise anyway. 4 / 18 is below the general 25% threshold that balance generally indicates. It's possible if the scum team is a bit power-heavy given the flips we have seen from Town (in which case a Roleblocker for scum is pretty much required for balance reasons).

[havingfitz]

OK...catching up from page 10ish.

The way the DY wagon built up so quickly (0-4 in 8 posts) seems scummy IMO. Given that Alice is the only ~confirmed town that leaves (surprise surprise) DV, NS, and redFF as scum candidates. Of course this also depends on whether DY is scum or not but given my current opinion towards him (leaning town) I find his quick wagon scummy. I then like how redFF...who hopped on the wagon himself was then quick to hop off the DY wagon once he had decided NS's vote was too suspect for his tastes. This despite calling NS out for his DY vote in the same post he (red) voted for DY. On that note, I would like to hear NS's reasons for voting DY. What changed your position towards DY after you told him he was probably town?

@MOI 1) I never realized you had a sense of humor. Hmmph 2) I find DV's play to be scummy. I have given my reasons why. The fact I have backed off on him slightly because of a) jason's scum flip and the bussing that would have had to have occurred between the two and (more importantly) b) the fact I find red a stronger suspect on this day....does not mean I'm going to pass up the chance to point out the error of DV's ways. Kind of like my continued dialogue with you. 3) DV is far less likely to be scum? You thought you made that clear? Unfortunately we don't all value your opinion as much as you do. Too funny. 4) My opinion on DY wagon being based on his claim being bad comes from Alice's case on him. I get the impression all her points against DY are stemming from not believing his claim. I believe that to be an accurate assessment of her suspicions/vote....which would appear to be the impetus behind the subsequent L-2 wagon that developed on DY.

NS..what recent events made DY you top suspect again?

OK..I see you have responded to this in later posts. Seems a bit weak IMO but you at least have addressed it.

@MOI...I agree with your "Muffin dying early means scum in VT theory" to a degree. Based on DY's post 261 13:4:1 hypothesis I think there has to be scum (1 or 2) in VT but, likewise...I think there is scum (1 or 2) in claimed PRs as well. So I would not defer from voting my top suspect based on whether they were in the VT or PR groups. Also...re: post 292...you say you feel crippled without being able to look at VCs. If there is something you want to know I can provide it. I have logged all the votes made for the entire game. I can't tell you what the mod's votecounts said because I do not know when he made them but I know who voted who and when. And also...when did 5 Mafian's become a consideration? I assume that would mean you do not think there is an sk in the game which would imply you think DY is either lying or a red herring. ??? 5 seems a bit much and I hope that is not the case.

---

My top two suspects are still red and DV. NS had made a bit of a move up my suspect list with his hop on DY's wagon and his associated ~rationale. I still think red's quick hop on and off the DY wagon is suspect and considering my top two suspects were so quick to jump on the DY wagon...that reinforces (c-bias?) my opinion that DY is legit. If there is an sk in this game I think it is probably either red or DY. Snake's absence has reached the point where I can not keep ignoring him. He is still at least 3 deep on my suspect list so I hope it doesn't come to lynching a lurker but still...what play he has contributed in hindsight has not been very pro-town.

So my top suspects ATT are:
redFF
DV
NS-Snake
DY (obv this drops to the bottom if an sk is killed/lynched or there is a 2nd NK)
MOI-jon (re: jon, no real pro-town reasons...more of an absence of anti-town play, newness, POE)

and the rest are cleared IMO.