NY 160: Terrible Melodrama Mafia (Game Over)

[DeasVail]

Vote Count 2.04

Toon Fighter (4)- 4nxi3ty, Empking, RedCoyote, Gentlemen Bastards
JacobSavage (3)- F-16_Fighting_Falcon, Toon Fighter, Untrod Tripod
Nero Cain (2)- Plan B, N
F-16_Fighting_Falcon (1)- JacobSavage
Plan B (1)- Nero Cain

Not voting: adorkable

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

V/LA

Nero Cain
Adorkable- Until Saturday

Deadline

29th November, 6pm AEDT

[Empking]

N: Have you commented on CS's claim?

[Nero Cain]

EMP, why do you think its a three man scumteam?

JS-more content plox.

[Empking]

EMP, why do you think its a three man scumteam?

JS-more content plox.

Fifteen players.

[Nero Cain]

3 seems kinda small to me though. You think 4 is to much?

[JacobSavage]

It gives about 4 mislynches assuming 2 kills a night where as 4 would give 3 mislynches. that and we don't know for sure that we don't have two scum teams, it could be 11v2v2. or 10v3v1

[Empking]

3 seems kinda small to me though. You think 4 is to much?

Yes.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I think one of the major disagreements about JS seems to be whether to use associative tells or his individual behavior to determine whether he is scum. Let's look at individual behavior first: JacobSavage has yet to respond to or comment on my catchup post. He placed his vote on me and when I made two long catch up posts, one directly about him, he has ignored it completely and didn't change his opinion of me at all (whether I am more scummy or less scummy to him). I'd expect town to be analyzing the behavior of other players and responding to them especially when that player makes a huge wall dedicated to them. Instead JacobSavage relies on GentlemenBastards to do that analysis and mount a defense in his favor.

@ GB, why is JacobSavage town based on individual behavior? You seem be to pushing the idea that JS is obv considerably while he lurked like a CIA spy so far this day phase.

In the meantime, I thought it would be helpful to draw a timeline on DY-Jacob interactions to figure those out.

As GB has pointed out, the first instance of DY placing a vote on JacobSavage is on post 76. GB, you ascribe town motivations to that vote to support a Jacob-town conclusion but this doesn't necessarily have to be the case. Let's take a look at the vote count right above that post:

Vote Count 1.02

Senjai (4)- JacobSavage, Toon Fighter, adorkable, Nero Cain
Nero Cain (2)- Demon Core, Senjai
PiggyGal15 (2)- Cletus+Brandine, Untrod Tripod

JacobSavage (1)- Plan B

Toon Fighter (1)- PiggyGal15
Number Six (1)- theamatuer
adorkable (1)- 4nxi3ty

Not voting: N, DoomYoshi, Number Six

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

This was at the beginning of page 4. At that point, the game was just transitioning out of RVS as evident by the distribution of votes. Plan B had posted a non-RVS vote on JacobSavage, and Doom hopped on with minimal reasoning. He says:

"

why would town have a reason to be nervous? Wouldn't you agree that someone who is nervous during page 2 scum?
You also never answered 4nxiety's question.

"

This isn't a vote to lynch. It is evident from this reason for vote that Doom had not intended for JacobSavage to be lynched but to rather answer a question that he posed. The fact that he quickly jumped on when another player had voted JS suggests an early distancing tactic as opposed to scum voting town.

I'll take GB's word that Doom kept his vote on JacobSavage until this point in post 250.

Vote Count 1.08

JacobSavage (6)- Plan B, DoomYoshi, Toon Fighter, theamatuer, PiggyGal15, RedCoyote

PiggyGal15 (5)- Cletus+Brandine, Untrod Tripod, adorkable, 4nxi3ty, Demon Core

Cletus+Brandine (2) JacobSavage, N
Senjai (1)- Nero Cain

Not voting: Senjai

This is the part that makes me question the associative tell on Jacob Savage a little because he was on JS's wagon as opposed to Piggy's. However, after Senjai voted Piggy to bring the vote count to 6-6, Jacob hops onto Piggy putting her at L-1 and a likely candidate for a lynch. This swings momentum in favor of a Piggy lynch making it more likely than Jacob's.

Piggy claims and the wagon on her dissipates.

Vote Count 1.09

PiggyGal15 (

7

6)- Cletus+Brandine, Untrod Tripod, adorkable, 4nxi3ty,

Demon Core

, Senjai, DoomYoshi

JacobSavage (

5

4)-

Plan B

, Toon Fighter, theamatuer, PiggyGal15, RedCoyote

Cletus+Brandine (2) JacobSavage, N
Senjai (1)- Nero Cain

NeroCain(1) - PlanB

N(1) - DemonCore

The wagon on JacobSavage showed signs of dissipating as well when Doom voted on it. I can see it both from a JS-town perspective as well as a JS-scum perspective. If JS is town, Doom parked his vote on the next most likely mislynch to succeed. If JS is scum, Doom placed his vote on the dissipating wagon of his buddy hoping that he won't be implicated if someone else is lynched and flips scum OR that if his buddy is lynched (it could have happened considering JS was a Piggy counterwagon), Doom looks good.

No doubt if it is the former, JS gets a lot of townpoints. But Doom's earlier comments of setting up lynches based on JS's flip as well as comments he makes later make the possibility of distancing a likely one. Comments like this:

If Jacob flips scum, I will consider more seriously nero (not saying that's a scum or town read, just that I will think about it more).

and this

Ok, Plan B, but if JS flips scum, I'm going to fos you hardcore.

support a JS/Doom scumteam theory when combined with the wagon-hopping shown by Doom as I displayed above.

Coming to GentlemenBastard's analysis that the fact that Doom directed comments like "

Sorry, JS, but this is laughably horrendous. There are more problems but this is a trifecta of I can't understand how a goes to b." and #286's "I'm not sold on the towniness here

." GB, can you explain why this necessarily means that they are not partners. To say that they are not partners based purely on those statements suggests that scum never bus. However, we all know that scum can and do bus especially when it seems like their partner's death is inevitable or highly likely. The fact that Doom tried to make false associations with Jacob while Jacob was going down actually

increases

the likelihood that it was an attempted bus. If Doom felt that Jacob couldn't be saved, the next best thing to do is bus and falsely declare that if your buddy flips scum, townie X is associated with them and must also be lynched. This is exactly what Doom has done.

Catching up on the more recent posts:

@ NeroCain, why is SK hunting necessarily a bad thing? If an SK exists and we take out the SK, we cut the number of kills per night in half. Also, why do you think it is more likely the scumbuddy is Plan B as opposed to JS? Where did Adorkable try to set up lynch chains? Can you elaborate on your concerns there?

@ RedCoyote, thoughts on Jacob/Doom now? Also, why do feel DY was the biggest advocate to JS lynch yesterday?

The other player I find scummy is Nero Cain. Page 21 discussion between UntrodTripod and NeroCain makes him look bad since most of his responses are really easily answered including the fact that dead scum setting up lynch chains is worth looking into much more than alive players, as well as the fact that if JS lynch was likely, scum would want to throw them under the bus while setting up town lynches. I don't agree with Nero's logic that they would do the opposite.

But the fact the JS hasn't posted anything of substance so far, lurked, posted fluff (how many mislynches it takes to lose, etc instead of reads), makes him the most likely player flip scum.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

I think one of the major disagreements about JS seems to be whether to use associative tells or his individual behavior to determine whether he is scum. Let's look at individual behavior first: JacobSavage has yet to respond to or comment on my catchup post. He placed his vote on me and when I made two long catch up posts, one directly about him, he has ignored it completely and didn't change his opinion of me at all (whether I am more scummy or less scummy to him). I'd expect town to be analyzing the behavior of other players and responding to them especially when that player makes a huge wall dedicated to them. Instead JacobSavage relies on GentlemenBastards to do that analysis and mount a defense in his favor.

Actually, he's been voting your slot since well before your catch-up walls here on D1 and here on D2, both well in advance of your #478 so that is not true. As far as his lack of response and his inactivity are concerned, it's a site-wide problem if you look at the timing of his recent posts overall.

@ GB, why is JacobSavage town based on individual behavior? You seem be to pushing the idea that JS is obv considerably while he lurked like a CIA spy so far this day phase.

We already explained why here, first paragraph (ignore the typo). See above re: his lurking.

As GB has pointed out, the first instance of DY placing a vote on JacobSavage is on post 76. GB, you ascribe town motivations to that vote to support a Jacob-town conclusion but this doesn't necessarily have to be the case. Let's take a look at the vote count right above that post:

This was at the beginning of page 4. At that point, the game was just transitioning out of RVS as evident by the distribution of votes. Plan B had posted a non-RVS vote on JacobSavage, and Doom hopped on with minimal reasoning. He says:

"

why would town have a reason to be nervous? Wouldn't you agree that someone who is nervous during page 2 scum?
You also never answered 4nxiety's question.

"

This isn't a vote to lynch. It is evident from this reason for vote that Doom had not intended for JacobSavage to be lynched but to rather answer a question that he posed. The fact that he quickly jumped on when another player had voted JS suggests an early distancing tactic as opposed to scum voting town.

This is a stretch. If you're using the logic that votes in the early game portion of the game aren't to 'lynch' then any vote wherever placed could be considered 'distancing'. The idea is that a vote promotes pressure and attention, scum at that point are less likely to want to pressure a partner and more likely want to steer people's votes onto town to have them respond badly and lead to a lynch. Basically, scum often try to piggyback off the incorrect vote of a townie in the hopes that it leads to a mislynch.

This is the part that makes me question the associative tell on Jacob Savage a little because he was on JS's wagon as opposed to Piggy's. However, after Senjai voted Piggy to bring the vote count to 6-6, Jacob hops onto Piggy putting her at L-1 and a likely candidate for a lynch. This swings momentum in favor of a Piggy lynch making it more likely than Jacob's.

I assume you meant Doom hops onto Piggy and puts her at L-1? Him moving onto Piggy at that point means nothing there especially if you assume that both Piggy/Jacob are town since he's just looking to push a ML through.

The wagon on JacobSavage showed signs of dissipating as well when Doom voted on it. I can see it both from a JS-town perspective as well as a JS-scum perspective. If JS is town, Doom parked his vote on the next most likely mislynch to succeed. If JS is scum, Doom placed his vote on the dissipating wagon of his buddy hoping that he won't be implicated if someone else is lynched and flips scum OR that if his buddy is lynched (it could have happened considering JS was a Piggy counterwagon), Doom looks good.

No doubt if it is the former, JS gets a lot of townpoints. But Doom's earlier comments of setting up lynches based on JS's flip as well as comments he makes later make the possibility of distancing a likely one. Comments like this...support a JS/Doom scumteam theory when combined with the wagon-hopping shown by Doom as I displayed above.

So wait, you're saying it's understandable as town and as scum and you're calling it a scumtell? About those two quotes, we think 'chain lynches' is one of those scum-tells people use that are never actually true - sure it might give him reasoning to vote Plan B if the situation played out with Jacob flipping scum but it wouldn't mean that Plan B would get lynched. The entire "If he is scum I will vote you" comes off more as an attempt to appeal to Plan B to get back on Jacob rather than an attempt to set up future lynches. Basically, it's a sort of intimidation tactic.

Coming to GentlemenBastard's analysis that the fact that Doom directed comments like "

Sorry, JS, but this is laughably horrendous. There are more problems but this is a trifecta of I can't understand how a goes to b." and #286's "I'm not sold on the towniness here

." GB, can you explain why this necessarily means that they are not partners. To say that they are not partners based purely on those statements suggests that scum never bus. However, we all know that scum can and do bus especially when it seems like their partner's death is inevitable or highly likely. The fact that Doom tried to make false associations with Jacob while Jacob was going down actually

increases

the likelihood that it was an attempted bus. If Doom felt that Jacob couldn't be saved, the next best thing to do is bus and falsely declare that if your buddy flips scum, townie X is associated with them and must also be lynched. This is exactly what Doom has done.

Ok first off, the quotes are relevant in showing that Jacob is town because scum often try to unreasonably play up the potential scumminess of someone's posts in an effort to gain wagon support for a ML. Scum are less likely to do that with one of their own. Furthermore, as you quote, Doom's vote was the second one on the Jacob wagon -- his lynch was hardly an inevitability at that point. While we both perfectly understand that scum can and do bus, the timing of Doom's vote on the wagon, the rhetoric he employs in trying to get it going, and the persistence of his vote all heavily point against that being a bus.

One other thing: you say you have a scumread on Toon at the end of this post. Toon joins the Jacob wagon here, claiming that he likes your case and reasoning yet you don't comment on his vote at all. Where did your scumread on him go?

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

GentlemenBastards, could you sign off your posts so we know who is posting?

Anyways, looking at your townread on JacobSavage:

Jason

should never have fucking been voted

. This dude is

literally the-most-obv-town player I have ever come across

.

Ever

. The

fact that he even got one vote let alone multiple is shockingly disgusting

. For those too blind to see it themselves or too caught up pushing on him out of play style annoyance here's what you've missed; The fact that he 'was going through' C+B and found a post he disliked at 1:19PM then had 'opinions' at 1:59PM proves he was scumhunting and reading peoples ISOs for 40 minutes on page 4, scum do not do that. Scum do not spend forever going through peoples posts only to make an 'opinion time post' to follow it. The fact that he stated that he spent too long doing it and it delayed everything else he had to do shows commitment that town give and his "It was difficult enough to try and justify mythoughs rather than just state what is my gut instinct." is so unbelievably genuine that it's not funny.

The certainty with which you are convinced of your read is disproportionate to the reasoning behind it. How do you know he wasn't doing homework and taking breaks every 40 minutes to the point that you are convinced that he is town with such absolute certainty? You are presuming that he spent those 40 minutes looking through ISO's on page 4. In essence, you are making an assumption that he put a lot of effort into the game and he is therefore town because of it. I spent hours reading the game and it took me more than an hour to analyze and re-evaluate whether DY-JS interactions were scum-scum. By your logic, I should be 100% obvious town to you in your mind, right? Everyone scumhunts, or at least pretends to scumhunts. They read ISOs, they post reads, etc. If the scum are skilled enough to fake it, it becomes a null tell. The fact that he quoted a post he didn't like and gave reads 40 minutes later doesn't convince me of his town-ness. Anyone could do it. Just because he chose to do that instead of taking the time to compose his thoughts and post them all at once shows a playstyle difference at most and nowhere near of a towntell as you describe in the bolded.

Re: Voting my slot. Yes, he has been voting my slot since before this Day. That is not what I am questioning. I agree that he voted before he saw my case. I question why he didn't respond to it when he saw it. His reasoning for voting C+B on Day 1 is really weak. He votes "

for vague posts, hopping on bandwagon and not really doing much. probably new scum

." Now that I have posted, made a case on him, posted my reads, made associative analysis, surely he would agree or disagree with it? Either it makes me more scummy, or more town-ish or scummy for different reasons than the original vote. He doesn't address any of that. He keeps his vote on me because C+B were supposedly making vague votes and hopping on bandwagons. He refuses to update his reasoning, form new reads, develop existing ones, engage me in conversation, question my case or anything at all to determine my affiliation. He wants

you

to do it for him. You say his activity level is the same site-wide but my issue is that he has posted here. He posted about the required number of mislynches we could potentially have. Who cares about mislynch speculation on Day 2? This is what I call "fluff." Seemingly trying to help but not actually scumhunting.

This is a stretch. If you're using the logic that votes in the early game portion of the game aren't to 'lynch' then any vote wherever placed could be considered 'distancing'. The idea is that a vote promotes pressure and attention, scum at that point are less likely to want to pressure a partner and more likely want to steer people's votes onto town to have them respond badly and lead to a lynch. Basically, scum often try to piggyback off the incorrect vote of a townie in the hopes that it leads to a mislynch.

You said that just because Doom was the second vote on JS, it necessarily means that JS is town. I provided an alternative scenario where they could both be scum. Early votes rarely lead to lynches and scum often vote each other during RVS phases to make it seem like they are not affiliated with each other. The presumption that scum will vote townies hoping that the townies react badly assumes that early voting leads to lynches often. Your analysis essentially assumes that scum don't vote each other.

So wait, you're saying it's understandable as town and as scum and you're calling it a scumtell? About those two quotes, we think 'chain lynches' is one of those scum-tells people use that are never actually true - sure it might give him reasoning to vote Plan B if the situation played out with Jacob flipping scum but it wouldn't mean that Plan B would get lynched. The entire "If he is scum I will vote you" comes off more as an attempt to appeal to Plan B to get back on Jacob rather than an attempt to set up future lynches. Basically, it's a sort of intimidation tactic.

I definitely think it is a possibility that it is an intimidation tactic. It could also be a setup for a chain lynch. Plan B may not have immediately been lynched if JS flipped scum but it gives Doom a viable target on the following days to try and mislynch. He could go off of his reasoning from the previous day and spent time trying to make him look scummy and divert attention from himself and his partner. At some point in the future, if Plan B looks scummy enough to be lynched, Doom could use it as the final straw to push through with the last few votes. The psychological effect, the deflection of attention, the potential lynch eventually maybe in Lylo are all beneficial things for scum so it makes sense to create the illusion that their scumbuddies are tied with certain townies. I don't think a JS lynch would have led to an insta-lynch of Plan B but creating those false associations creates grounds for attack which the scumteam can then use for their benefit as I mentioned above.

Ok first off, the quotes are relevant in showing that Jacob is town because scum often try to unreasonably play up the potential scumminess of someone's posts in an effort to gain wagon support for a ML. Scum are less likely to do that with one of their own. Furthermore, as you quote, Doom's vote was the second one on the Jacob wagon -- his lynch was hardly an inevitability at that point. While we both perfectly understand that scum can and do bus, the timing of Doom's vote on the wagon, the rhetoric he employs in trying to get it going, and the persistence of his vote all heavily point against that being a bus.

One other thing: you say you have a scumread on Toon at the end of this post. Toon joins the Jacob wagon here, claiming that he likes your case and reasoning yet you don't comment on his vote at all. Where did your scumread on him go?

Your interpretation of Doom's vote as him playing up the potential scumminess of JS's posts is coming from a standpoint that JS is town. You are then interpreting Doom's behavior to make it fit with JS being town. I am trying to provide both scenarios in most cases. As a counter, Doom could have felt that JS wasn't going to be lynched and saw an opportunity to distance. The persistence he later employs in pushing the JS wagon occur much later and are riddled with fake-associative tells.

I think

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

I think JS could be scum and TF town. They could both be scum of different factions. TF could be serial killer. JS could be town and TF could be scum. There are a number of possibilities and I am not going to stop pushing my #1 scumread because my #2 scumread jumped on the wagon.

A better question: I push the theory that Doom voted his scumbuddy with the second vote off the wagon. Why do you find it unusual that I don't care about TF's vote. I don't consider it unlikely for scum to bus - that much should be clear based on my posts. Why do you expect me to fall back just because a scumread voted another scumread considering the baseline you should have established on my views of scum bussing their teammates?

[Gentlemen Bastards]

It's not the fact that Jacob put forward effort that makes him town, it's the timing of when he put in the effort and the genuiness behind it. None of it even close to 'fake' and had he 'not looked into peoples ISOs' he wouldn't have had knowledge of what had occurred then. You're trying to manipulate and change everything he's done and push scum intent behind it when there is none. His play has been very transparent. Him not having responded to your case on him is very understandable given that from what I observe he's replaced out of an alternate game because he's busy and struggling time wise, we hinted towards this in our last post but you haven't given researching that an ounce of effort and instead are trying to push through this crappy case.

I'm not going to waste another half hour going through the rest of your points little by little, you're essentially saying that you understand how their interaction works as town, then you're saying you think they work as scum as well so therefore your 'case' on him as scum would be invalidated by the fact that it all happening would be a null-tell. The fact that you haven't even considered that, moved your vote or shown signs of consideration read heavily as you trying to push a mslynch through.

And it's not the fact that you've 'ignored' Toon joining your wagon that's the issue, it's the fact that you stated a scum-read on him before, he gets wagoned and then your scum-read on him gets no mention at all and instead you focus on stating a scum-read on Nero. At this point it's becoming blindingly obvious that you're scum with Toon and doing whatever possible to avoid him getting lynched today - your reads aren't genuine and both of you are hanging today and tomorrow and if by some chance we get night killed tonight I'll trust that RC and Empking will make sure that this wish is fulfilled.

UT, want to stop being a moron and voting with both scum now?

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Yeah, Empire is saying that your play here is 10000000% different to your town-meta, as town you're open minded, considerate and 'peripheral' (Sadly not word means in context and he's afked) where as here you're hard-headingly trying to push this through. He'll go into a big meta case tomorrow I think.

We're leaning towards last scum being adorkable too at the moment.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

The problem I have with your read on Jacob is that it doesn't explain why you felt that his effort was "genuine." You go from a premise of

"he pointed out a post and came 40 minutes later with reads"

to a conclusion of

"literally the-most-obv-town player I have ever come across. Ever. The fact that he even got one vote let alone multiple is shockingly disgusting."

The reasoning you supply is that he ISO'd people, in other words, he put in effort - (which you later deny as your reasoning). You use words like "genuiness" to describe your read - which amounts to merely your opinion.

You calling my case "crappy" doesn't make it so. Two other people agree with me - you call them scum.

I have pointed out how some of their interactions could be town-scum OR scum-scum but based on overall context, I showed how they fit in as scum-scum much more accurately.

You are claiming that me not moving my vote makes me scum. Yet, you have not tried to persuade me in the slightest as to why you think ToonFighter is scum. You are merely threatening me with a meta-case from Empire and demanding that I move my vote. So, compare my detailed voting analysis against JS vs your threats of meta-cases and lynches on me if you don't get my vote for your top scumread. Why must I vote for your top scumread as opposed to mine? You didn't even present a case.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

No, you're not making any sense with your Jacob push here at all. Him having been hunting through ISOs and bumping across a post such as in Post 90 isn't the way that scum fabricate reads and cases. His excitment in 'opinion time' and wanting to know what others think of his reads and thoughts is something that comes from noob-town a lot in Post 91. I mean how anyone can look through his ISO and get scum is something that's uncomprehendable. This line "I have nothing but shit unfourtunatly, there is really nothing much I can find, I have spent a good 2 hours going through each persons posts (don't think i got down to Tripod, I had to cook dinner and that took longer than expected) and it was difficult enough to try and justify my thoughs rather than just state what is my gut instinct." is something that Empire is saying is the towniest line he has ever read in two years of playing mafia and I agree with him on that completely. If you think that it's very plausible for it to be T-S and S-S then you shouldn't be pushing on Jacob confidently at all, especially if you're claiming to have a strong town-read on us and we're telling you he's not for lynching. Instead you'd be willing to move across to Toon given that he has a bigger wagon, more support and yes there is a case put up against him - are you really going to try and pretend that we haven't presented a case on why Toon is scum? Like seriously? It's in Post 399 and Post 429.

You calling my case "crappy" doesn't make it so. Two other people agree with me - you call them scum.

No, Toons scum, UT's just an idiot, we're pretty much just treating him as a scum traitor that we don't have to lynch to win.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Yeah, Empire is saying that your play here is 10000000% different to your town-meta, as town you're open minded, considerate and 'peripheral' (Sadly not word means in context and he's afked) where as here you're hard-headingly trying to push this through. He'll go into a big meta case tomorrow I think.

We're leaning towards last scum being adorkable too at the moment.

I can say the same for you. You are being very hard-headed on the JS-town issue despite being provided a mountain of evidence to the contrary. You are being hard-headed on the "TF should be lynched" issue as well. I don't mind lynching TF if the majority of players want that lynch. It just doesn't make sense to do so without hearing the perspective of other players. In fact my voting pattern analysis was directed at players who wanted more information about DY-JS interaction to make an informed decision as opposed to the one slot that is uninterested in hearing any analysis that shows that JS is scum - ironic that you respond so quickly to it, and start calling players voting for him scum or morons.

Pedit: my scumread on JS is stronger than my townread on you guys which was considerably weakened given the intensity of your defence of Jacob. If you continue pushing the Jacob-town case, I doubt my townread on you will hold much longer. Now,

that's

a threat. I'll probably make a huge meta case on you tomorrow and get you lynched if JS flips scum

You have not waited to see how other players have responded to my analysis. You have not waited to see whether the JS wagon will grow larger than the TF wagon. You are merely looking at the current state of the wagon which is a difference of one vote.

I'll tell you what, if you get TF to L-1 with no more votes on JS, I'll switch over.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

1) I can say the same for you. You are being very hard-headed on the JS-town issue despite being provided a mountain of evidence to the contrary. You are being hard-headed on the "TF should be lynched" issue as well. I don't mind lynching TF if the majority of players want that lynch. It just doesn't make sense to do so without hearing the perspective of other players. 2) In fact my voting pattern analysis was directed at players who wanted more information about DY-JS interaction to make an informed decision as opposed to the one slot that is uninterested in hearing any analysis that shows that JS is scum - ironic that you respond so quickly to it, and start calling players voting for him scum or morons. 3) Pedit: my scumread on JS is stronger than my townread on you guys which was considerably weakened given the intensity of your defence of Jacob. If you continue pushing the Jacob-town case, I doubt my townread on you will hold much longer. Now,

that's

a threat. I'll probably make a huge meta case on you tomorrow and get you lynched if JS flips scum You have not waited to see how other players have responded to my analysis. You have not waited to see whether the JS wagon will grow larger than the TF wagon. You are merely looking at the current state of the wagon which is a difference of one vote.

1) There's no 'mountain' of evidence against him at all, the analysis you've put forward yourself you've admitted to being only one angle of and state that it's also just as plausible to come from town, you continue to pretend that you have some 'strong' case or reasoning against him being scum but there isn't at all. There are some reads that I do need to hear others opinions on to really get a more informed decision and read and there are some that I don't. I don't need anyone to tell me what their read on Jacob is to be able to read him, it's very blatantly town if you read through his ISO but you're ignoring the reasoning we just put forward for why he's town and the fact that his 'cannot explain gut read' ect. comment from him being incredibly town.

2) Voting pattern analysis? You're just making things up now or as Empires saying it's just "a bunch of politician-style rhetoric". And the fact that you're trying to make our comment that UT is a moron and Toon is scum into something is just further proof that you're not reading the thread with a mind that's really scumhunting - if you were you'd have noticed we had a scum read on Toon before he voted Jacob and called UT a moron before he had voted Jacob as well.

3) It's pretty fucking clear that you're just desperately attempting to push this through and avoid a Toon scum lynch, you didn't even read our case on Toon that we posted before and just linked you to again. And not just that but you're attempting to de-credit us for defending our strongest town-read.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

You are pretty much doing

everything

you are accusing me of doing. Let's see:

List of GentlemenBastards's misreps/arguments

:

1)

"F-16 is discrediting us for defending our strongest townread"

You are discrediting me for pushing my strongest scumread.


2)

"F-16 claims that DY-JS interaction could be town-town but voted JS anyways"

This is a misrepresentation because my analysis considers both possibilties of JS being scum and JS being town, evaluates the likelihood based on Doom's behavior, and concludes that it is far more likely JS is scum. It is an evaluation argument. GB's argument oversimplifies it by stating that because I have considered both possibilities as alternate hypotheses, I must stay stuck in those hypothesis and not provide a coherent conclusion about which is the more

likely

possibility.

3)

"There are some reads that I do need to hear others opinions on to really get a more informed decision and read and there are some that I don't."

Cool. Understandable. Same goes for me. I don't need to hear your opinion on JS. What is more interesting is why you think you are special. Why do you think your view is better than others that you respond to cases not directed at you? If you don't need to hear opinions on Jacob, why are you responding to posts that are clearly meant for people who want more information to make up their minds and requested it? If you don't want to vote for Jacob, don't. If enough people find him scummy, we'll lynch him anyways, and if he flips scum, you know you are going down next.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

1) No. I'm saying that you're ignoring a lot of the facts behind Jacob-Town and instead pushing onto him despite your 'second strongest' scum-read being the counterwagon with a lot more people agreeing on him being scum and support there and not just vote wise.

2) Again no, your 'evaluation' ignores a fuckload of what happened and is just you misrepresenting the events of yesterday to continue to push on him. Or as Empire is saying " His entire posts are just lame posturing and intimidation tactics like any politician. This guy is literaly Mitt Romney."

3) You're really attempting to ask us why we think our opinion is relevant and valid? Because the only reason to play this game is to scumhunt, state reads, catch scum and contribute, not here to play "Oh let everyone put their 2 cents on the table and we all stand around waiting in the meantime". You're also trying to say "Why are you defending your town-read, you don't have to comment on him" and the answer to that is simple and something you KNOW is true and that's letting town reads get lynched is the worst play possible.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

This is where I have a problem. I objectively analyzed voting patterns considering every possible motivation to come to the conclusion that I did. I didn't go into it with the presumption that Jacob is scum. This is why you see statements in some of my analysis which gives town-points to Jacob while the overall analysis concludes that he is scum. You on the other hand said "he posted 40 minutes after he quoted a post. He is working hard, he is genuine, he is town!" You keep harping on that read while claiming that I should accept your view that Jacob is town. I can say the same thing - you have been ignoring the evidence I presented to further defend Jacob as it suits your purposes. You then make it out it out to be a huge scumtell that I am not convinced by your analysis - while you are guilty of exact same thing. The only difference is that you believe your Jacob-town case is stronger and I believe that my Jacob-scum case is stronger. As for which prevails, the other players will decide.

Actually, you know what, let me demonstrate why you are being hypocritical. I can literally take your quotes, flip them around and quote them back to you and the argument would be just as valid.

No. I'm saying that you're ignoring a lot of the facts behind Jacob-Scum and instead defending him like there is no tomorrow

Again no, your 'evaluation' ignores a fuckload of what happened and is just you misrepresenting the events of yesterday to continue to defend him. Your entire posts are just lame posturing and intimidation tactics like any politician. You are literaly Mitt Romney."

You see how you are just providing vague banalities that could apply to you just as well?

Moving on, you explain why you think your opinion is valid. Why then, do you consider my opinion on JS

in

valid? My opinion is just as valid as yours. You are trying to shove your opinion (Jacob-town) down other's throats while claiming that you don't need to hear any more opinions on Jacob. That is what I find inconsistent. If you are not going to open to Jacob-scum opinions, then I am not going to be entertaining Jacob-town opinions from you either.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Sigh, was going to just instantly respond telling you that your post is a bunch of shit but I took a break and calmed down and while I don't think Empires minds changed on you (He's gone to bed) and while I still don't see anything in your play resembling your town play I can see a few minor town-tells in the debate going back over it, will need to talk to Empire about them but if you're town then I urge you to read the entirety of this post carefully please. You're downplaying the town read on Jacob to something far less than it actually is. It's not solely an effort = town thing at all. Take a step back and re-ISO him reading his posts in detail and judging whether you think his scumhunting, thoughts and posts are genuine or fake because fairly positive anyone actually looking at his play objectively would notice that he's town - if you need an example take a look at Empkings replace in where Jacob is on a whole another tier because he really is that town. I've tried to tell you specific comments, posts and lines of his to look at and you're not looking at it so please, go back and look at him. Then if you still think he's scum you'll have to explain in detail to me how his play is fake or ingenuine because your interaction based case is incredibly weak.

I haven't 'ignored' your evidence at all - Likely regardless of how strong your case was it probably wouldn't have changed my read on him, with that said I did sit down and take a deep look into your case on him and it's a case where a lot of scum-tells are hinged on a prior thing being a scum-tell which is based on a prior thing being a scum-tell which is based on an inital comment being a scum-tell and that comment being something that is rather null or at least can go both ways. I know that you're saying you've looked into this and 'evaluated' but I don't think you have, or at least not properly. And frankly while what I may be doing is 'shoving' my town-read on him down your throat it's very rare that I get town-reads that are that strong and in those cases I don't hold up on them, if they're getting voted #1 priority is to do whatever possible to prevent it. If you need examples of where my strong strong town-reads have been right I'll provide them but I think if you're town just reading into Jacob alone will be all the proof you need.

And if you need more than my cases that I linked on why Toon is scum here's him posting elsewhere on the site and not even a mention or post in this thread.

[Plan B]

@ DeasVail:
I'll be busy travelling for the next couple of days. V/LA until Sunday, 11/25/12, though I may sneak in a post.

UNVOTE: Nero Cain

I'm not comfortable leaving my vote hanging there until I get a chance to fully reconsider.

[4nxi3ty]

I can see a few minor town-tells in the debate going back over it, will need to talk to Empire about them but if you're town then I urge you to read the entirety of this post carefully please.

so there is going to be a ceasefire on the wall war then?

I think you've been active lurking like a boss.

whats is the difference between my activity level and others who are similar or worse?

[Gentlemen Bastards]

NeroCain and N, PlanB isn't going to get lynched, you should move to Toon.

so there is going to be a ceasefire on the wall war then?

Maybe. I make no promises though.

[N]

NeroCain and N, PlanB isn't going to get lynched, you should move to Toon.

My vote isn't on Plan B; it's on Nero Cain, who is trying to power-lurk through the day.

I have no problems with a Toon lynch, though, so
VOTE: Toon Fighter