NY 160: Terrible Melodrama Mafia (Game Over)

[DeasVail]

Vote Count 3.01

Untrod Tripod (3)- Empking, Plan B, JacobSavage
Empking (1)- Untrod Tripod

Not voting: N, 4nxi3ty, RedCoyote, F-16_Fighting_Falcon, adorkable, Gentlemen Bastards

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline

9th December, 10pm AEDT

[N]

I am so lost right now. My two biggest scumreads both just flipped as town. I think I need someone to sheep while I reevaluate. (Also they were both my parents? I'm an orphan now?)

Right now, my biggest townread is GB, both for their and their predecessor's play. Yoshi soft pushed both GB and UT, so at the moment I'm happy to believe UT is town too.

I think I'll leave my vote here for a bit:
VOTE: Anxiety

[4nxi3ty]

Town RB

and

town Watcher make sense together balance-wise. My other head wants to note she thinks it's unlikely that we've outed two town PRs D1 and is initially inclined to think one of the two to be scum.

this comment stood out to me. (using hydra to sit on both sides of the issue?)

the apologetic nature of their prod dodges bothers me as well.

vote: adorkable

[Plan B]

@ Plan B, why did the TF hammer seem town to you?

Because Toon Fighter had claimed VT. Day 1 we managed to run up two PR claims and lynched one of them. With that much general suspicion on Toon Fighter, and him claiming VT, hammering him prevented further claims and prevented having him around as a potential suspect in future Days.

From the perspective of you as hypothetical Town, it makes sense for you to hammer him there. From the perspective of you as hypothetical scum, I don't think you'd be so decisive about hammering a non-partner. So, Toon Fighter's Town flip plays into it as well as the actual hammer.

Plus, I'd have hammered there and I know that comes from Town motivation.

Plan B and Jacob, let me know what you think of Dooms final comments to UT at the end of D1 because we're both very confident that the interaction doesn't work from partner-to-partner.

You're tallking about this, right?

UT: so you are purposely lurking to avoid drawing attention to yourself? That is pretty self-preservationist, so if you end up

being

something like a vig, I will just assume you are SK, and act accordingly.

Two things come to mind.

One, now that Nero Cain is known Town, it's clear that DoomYoshi was able to deal out misinformation about Town players. If that's the case, it doesn't stretch credulity to believe he'd distance from a partner. He picked up the lurking thing against Untrod Tripod from your post followed by Untrod Tripod's answer. So, aligning himself with you in that way against a partner is not out of the question. Day 1 was almost over, so there was no real danger of creating a wagon on Untrod Tripod at that time.

The second thing, and what gives me the most pause, is DoomYoshi's use of the word "being" as opposed to "claiming". That does seem like a slip that reveals that Untrod Tripod is Town, or at least not partnered with DoomYoshi. For them to be partners, DoomYoshi would have had to intentionally use that phrasing with the hope that it would preserve Untrod Tripod. That's something of a stretch, I know.

I'm not sure that's enough to get me off wanting to lynch Untrod Tripod, though. I do think there's a high probability of scum in the five unknown alignment players I mentioned earlier, and Untrod Tripod is the scummiest of all five of you from my perspective.

[Untrod Tripod]

Holy faulty premise, batman!

[Untrod Tripod]

Also what is this "at least not partners" bs? We have no reason so far to suspect multiball

[Empking]

The second thing, and what gives me the most pause, is DoomYoshi's use of the word "being" as opposed to "claiming". That does seem like a slip that reveals that Untrod Tripod is Town, or at least not partnered with DoomYoshi. For them to be partners, DoomYoshi would have had to intentionally use that phrasing with the hope that it would preserve Untrod Tripod. That's something of a stretch, I know.

I think the whole unnaturalness of that discussion, including the silly phrasing, lends credence to the UT & DY being buddies hypothesis.

[Untrod Tripod]

meanwhile, in another part of town, Empking is still DY's buddy

[RedCoyote]

Town RB

and

town Watcher make sense together balance-wise. My other head wants to note she thinks it's unlikely that we've outed two town PRs D1 and is initially inclined to think one of the two to be scum.

this comment stood out to me. (using hydra to sit on both sides of the issue?)

the apologetic nature of their prod dodges bothers me as well.

vote: adorkable

I agree with this comment.

---

RC, Doom didn't 'push C+B' hard throughout the day at all, in fact if anything he defended them and was very waffly about them.

Everytime I read through DY I feel like I'm going round in circles. His attacks aren't particularly harsh; his defenses not particularly steadfast. He seemed to bring Senjai and C+B up a lot with others, acknowledging how C+B looks "fishy" and trying to hold him to his commitments.

I think adorkable or UT is the way forward today.

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Empire, you should probably post and give your reads. Right now, all I hear is Regfan saying "Empire is saying this, Empire is saying that, etc."

N, Yoshi soft-pushed a whole bunch of people. What is your reasoning for specifically thinking that GB and UT are town because of it and not any other player?

I am not sure about UT. I'll check ISO later to see if there if there is any unnatural tendency between UT and DY.

[RedCoyote]

Empking, I don't think we've been giving you enough credit for your earlier reads. Is there one thing you could say that would put this game into perspective for players like me and N? You seem to really have a good feel for things, but then again maybe I just always see you as calm and determined based on your playstyle.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Out of all the votes and wagons today the only one that I think really has a decent shot of hitting scum is Adorkable; Their prod-dodges and "We'll do X later" and "We'll do ISOs" and "We'll do VCA" just read as empty promises and attempts to float through the day and given that I'm pretty sure that Toon vs Jacob yesterday were both wagons on town I think they'd try and restrict their activity there. Also think the vote on Doom with no follow through and the next days 'Told you so' was distancing, attempting to grab credit there as town makes little sense given they never attempted to 'tell us' or get a lynch on Doom.

Vote: Adorkable

Two things come to mind. One, now that Nero Cain is known Town, it's clear that DoomYoshi was able to deal out misinformation about Town players. If that's the case, it doesn't stretch credulity to believe he'd distance from a partner. He picked up the lurking thing against Untrod Tripod from your post followed by Untrod Tripod's answer. So, aligning himself with you in that way against a partner is not out of the question. Day 1 was almost over, so there was no real danger of creating a wagon on Untrod Tripod at that time. The second thing, and what gives me the most pause, is

DoomYoshi's use of the word "being" as opposed to "claiming". That does seem like a slip that reveals that Untrod Tripod is Town, or at least not partnered with DoomYoshi.

For them to be partners, DoomYoshi would have had to intentionally use that phrasing with the hope that it would preserve Untrod Tripod. That's something of a stretch, I know. I'm not sure that's enough to get me off wanting to lynch Untrod Tripod, though. I do think there's a high probability of scum in the five unknown alignment players I mentioned earlier, and Untrod Tripod is the scummiest of all five of you from my perspective.

It's not the fact that he shows suspicion towards UT that makes me think he's not mafia but rather the manner and tone it was done in - the bolded is very much what I'm talking about. I don't see mafia talking to a partner like that and the whole thing really really points strongly to UT-Town for us.

Also heads up: VCA is very very much overrated and generally quite useless. The only time when it really has some effect is when a strong scum power role is lynched ect. but with a town lynch it's rather inaccurate to use. I've seen D1 wagons where it's all town, I've seen D4 wagons and lynches where it's all town. I've seen all scum on the D1 lynch before and I've seen all of them voting together D4. So I think your 'Out of the 5' is something you're giving too much weight towards.

Empire, you should probably post and give your reads. Right now, all I hear is Regfan saying "Empire is saying this, Empire is saying that, etc."

I'll get him to post tomorrow when he wakes up. I generally tend to just jump in and post our thoughts rather than letting him do it.

[Plan B]

I don't see mafia talking to a partner like that and the whole thing really really points strongly to UT-Town for us.

Also heads up: VCA is very very much overrated and generally quite useless.

I know what you're saying about that exchange. And, like I said, it gives me the most pause in this decision.

As far as the VCA, I know it's not foolproof. It's just a remarkable coincidence, and I think it's too much to ignore. First, I don't believe a Day 1 claimed PR mislynch is likely all Town. Second, for those same exact five players to be involved in the Day 2 mislynch pushes the envelope of credulity to think they are all Town.

Breaking the game along those lines, I see two groups.

{Untrod Tripod, Empking, 4nxi3ty, Gentlemen Bastards, F-16_Fighting_Falcon} and {adorkable, JacobSavage, N, RedCoyote}

Of Group 1, I clearly see Untrod Tripod as scummiest individually - even taking into account the questionable interaction with DoomYoshi. But, I do have a question that bothers me.

That discussion doesn't look town to me. I don't think it looks scummy either; though you can justify anything (e.g. "Making a claim that only matters if an unclaimed player is a vig is a rather pointless, and is just fluff; possibly between buddies.@)

I think the whole unnaturalness of that discussion, including the silly phrasing, lends credence to the UT & DY being buddies hypothesis.

What changed, from your point of view, to make the discussion more likely to indicate a scum-scum interaction than a null read on the interaction?

Of Group 2, I think adorkable and N are both very suspect.

If this Untrod Tripod wagon goes nowhere, I'll switch to adorkable. I'm completely behind the case on them.

Town

Gentlemen Bastards
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
JacobSavage

Unsure/Null

RedCoyote
4nxi3ty
Empking

Scum

Untrod Tripod
adorkable
N

That's where I'm at, with no particular difference within each group.

I think adorkable or UT is the way forward today.

I agree, but why not pick a date for the dance?

[Empking]

What changed, from your point of view, to make the discussion more likely to indicate a scum-scum interaction than a null read on the interaction?

I paid less critical attention to my opinion the second time and fell foul to bias.

[N]

N, Yoshi soft-pushed a whole bunch of people. What is your reasoning for specifically thinking that GB and UT are town because of it and not any other player?

Because GB and UT are the ones he pushed on in his last post, near the end of the day, to set up lynches for the following day/s.

Breaking the game along those lines, I see two groups.

{Untrod Tripod, Empking, 4nxi3ty, Gentlemen Bastards, F-16_Fighting_Falcon} and {adorkable, JacobSavage, N, RedCoyote}

Why are you doing wagon analysis on the day 1 lynch, but not day 2? They were both on town in the end.

[JacobSavage]

I think that includes both D1 &D2 wagons and who was on both. I think is what he did.

[4nxi3ty]

don't really have much to add until i see adorkable's response

for what it's worth i think ut's play is not consistent with his scum meta

[Plan B]

Why are you doing wagon analysis on the day 1 lynch, but not day 2? They were both on town in the end.

It's the coincidence of the same group being on both that caught my attention when comparing the two wagons. I'm pretty sure I made that clear, and I don't understand the nature of your question.

I paid less critical attention to my opinion the second time and fell foul to bias.

Hmmm, well, that makes sense, I guess. So, is it mostly just the suspicion from Demon Core onto Untrod Tripod that is fueling your suspicion? Or, am I missing something you've said?

@ F-16_Fighting_Falcon

You held the opinion, pretty strongly, that JacobSavage was likely scum due to the way DoomYoshi was trying to make connections from him (JacobSavage) onto other players.

What do you think about the way Untrod Tripod connected Empking and DoomYoshi on Day 1? Is it a similar situation? Does it have any impact on your reads on either Empking or Untrod Tripod?

[DeasVail]

Prodding adorkable.

[JacobSavage]

Helllooo......

[N]

Why are you doing wagon analysis on the day 1 lynch, but not day 2? They were both on town in the end.

It's the coincidence of the same group being on both that caught my attention when comparing the two wagons. I'm pretty sure I made that clear, and I don't understand the nature of your question.

Oh, right. I see that now.

So you're saying it's unlikely that a group that was on both lynching wagons is unlikely to be all town? But then when you make a list of who you think is scum, the group is more skewed towards being town than not?

Helllooo......

Why have you made this post? Is there nothing worth commenting on on this whole page? You've made one other post this page, which was a one-liner responding only to the most recent thing said. Are you saying that no one else has made any posts of content worthy of your response, or have I misinterpreted this futile threadbump?

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Empire, you should probably post and give your reads. Right now, all I hear is Regfan saying "Empire is saying this, Empire is saying that, etc."

Hi.

As it should be apparent from our posts, F-16, I think you’re scum. I’m actually reasonably confident you are. Your play here is miles off from what I’ve seen in games like Stratego I and Mafia in Triplicate. In both those games, you were very open minded and considerate of every angle (see: Stratego, where you went from initially townreading MoI in your first catch-up to eventually voting him in the second). Here, you basically decided early on that Jacob was scum and tried to pivot everything off of that especially off of things that you’ve admitted to be alignment neutral at worst. The entire case reads like you’re trying to shoehorn scum intent into his posting. I find the notion that you have/had so many null reads hard to believe as well (compare the catchup here to your catchup in this game – I think the difference is clear).

As far as adorkable is concerned, I very much agree with Regfan’s vote and reasoning. To add a little more, both heads have been posting pretty prolifically elsewhere as you can see here and here. Something else to note – one of the heads posts that they’ve had enough time to watch two seasons of a TV show yet they claim to be too busy to post here. If they watched two seasons of a TV show in a week, they cannot possibly be so swamped that they can’t get to this game at all. I think their excuse of "not being able to get to the game at all" is complete bullshit - they

have

been together and they

have

had some free time.

I was on board with N-scum until I checked out his first, recently completed scum game. Regfan and I were both proceeding under the assumption that N was lurker scum here but his super tryhard attitude in that game gives me pause. It’s possible N’s just a guy who is overwhelmed by the size of large games generally hence his low content here.

Jacob, Plan B, 4nx, Empking, and UT should still not be lynched.

[N]

I was on board with N-scum until I checked out his first, recently completed scum game. Regfan and I were both proceeding under the assumption that N was lurker scum here but his super tryhard attitude in that game gives me pause. It’s possible N’s just a guy who is overwhelmed by the size of large games generally hence his low content here.

I will admit I had a slow start to this game; I was in too many at the time, but now that a few have finished (including that one you just linked), hopefully I'll be able to give more to the games I'll still in.

[RedCoyote]

I agree, but why not pick a date for the dance?

Because I honestly couldn't give you a preference off the top of my head. On a related subject, what's with your sudden interest in suspecting N? I seem to recall you trying to undercut the efforts that DC and I made to get N under some pressure earlier.

In any case, I'm sheeping Empking. I think adorkable is being more helpful to the town relative to UT as my tiebreaker.

Vote: Untrod Tripod

Oh, and I wanted to mention, if we have any other investigative roles, I think it would be wise for them to consider coming out now.

[Untrod Tripod]

you're at best sheeping a sheep vote and at worst sheeping an OMGUS vote

STRONG WORK, RC, STRONG WORK

empking's reads have been ~superplusgood~ this game, obviously sheeping him is a winning and protown idea. he's also done more or less nothing but sit on mislynches and have scummy interactions with a flipped scum, but let's ignore that because in some alternate universe I've been less helpful than adorkable, who has done nothing. are you another DY buddy, or are you just not reading the game?