395: Big Lebowski -- game is dead :(

[big_kahunia]

Fact: Mafia can only talk at night

If I was in the mafia, I would have to be breaking the rules of the game to strategize with my mafia budd y/ies. The purpose of a Day start is that the mafia cannot act before there is any voting, so they have no more time to strategize than the town has to figure out who they are.

No.

It is not a

fact

, it is a guideline that moderators use on scum. They use to guideline; because, most games start at night. For instance, in mini340, the players confirmed in thread and thereafter, it was night 1. Don’t you think the mafia would be able to communicate during pregame? Since the game went directly to night, they would be talking anyway.

In the wiki article, it states that the mafia can talk at night. It does not say that it is

only

at night. In the past, most of the games started in night, so the subject of mafia talking during pre-game was not an issue.

I don't know Colonel Kurtz is scum, since he believes so strongly

Both sides will appear strong. Each side plays to win. Having a tough view does not make one innocent. I’ve seen games where the mafia believes in an argument strongly. A player with a strong view tells us nothing; other than, the player plays to win.

Sorry, I'll fix the problems.

The reason, I believe it is scummy of them is because stalling gives them more time to talk. The mod didn’t set a limit for the amount of time to confirm, so the mafia won’t confirm right away so they have more time to talk and strategize. They got their roles and yet didn’t confirm when they had ample chance. They must be mafia.

Although it makes sense, it's still baseless. Your argument only holds in a limited fahion if you are correct that the "stalling" took place. Since opinion isn't evidence, it is questionable whether "stalling" was intended. There is no greater chance of me intentionally stalling than simply forgetting.

Baseless, I disagree. And how are we to know if you were stalling—because you said so?
On day1, it’s all about circumstantial evidence and plenty points at you and CK. As for simply forgetting, I think it interesting that someone could compose a logical argument and be so forgetful.

Everyone (save Scalebane) confirmed right away without stalling. By right away, I mean no posts in other games/threads before logging out and beginning a new session. Here is the evidence:

The evidence on the other players only include the things that you can document. While it's true that they did not post since Dec23, that doesn't mean they haven't been on the site. It just means they simply haven't posted. As a result, it can be predicted that those people will post and contribute the least.

That may be true in general. In our specific case, it is not. Most confirmed within a day or two. That time frame is about when people log on.


Note: I didn't cover everything I wanted to in this post. I have a paper due soon and must work on that. I'll get to what I haven't early tomorrow morning.

[Atticus]

I cannot say anything about the game right now, because I've missed everything so far. The ice storm has sucked out power, and we've no idea when we'll get it back. Replace me if you need to, but I'd love to stay in if I can and get power soon.

[riktus]

And since you're being flaky about the pre-game communication issue, I actually fail to see *why* you are still voting for me at this point.

I fail to see how I'm being flaky about pre-game communication issue. As I said at the beginning

I think any kind of reliance on big kahunia's observations would be foolish, but they are an interesting place to start.

they are an interesting bit of circumstantial evidence, and give us a basis for discussion. My problem, once again, is that you have stated

as fact

in your defense something which

is not fact

.

And it still is a fact that in the generally accepted rules of mafia, scum can only communicate at night; you have failed to actually disprove that it isn't a rule unless otherwise noted.

I quite agree with the first part, not quite sure what you mean in the second part though - did you mean "... failed to disprove that it

is

a rule unless otherwise noted"? Well, no, I haven't - because there are no set hard and fast rules for mafia, it is left to the mods discretion and I assume that they can let people talk outside the thread without informing the game as a whole if they wish. I think the point is that YOU have failed to prove that scum can only communicate at night unless otherwise noted. Once again, I'm just saying it is a possibility, there are no rules which explicitly rule out that possibility - but you are stating as fact that mafia can only communicate at night.

Really like to hear a bit more input on this from elsewhere - lots of people who have hardly said anything yet.

[Fircoal]

I don't know what to believe, maybe he did it on pursope maybe he didn't. WIth the fact said above by big_kahunia, I'm confused on if he is or isn't scum.

[chaotic_diablo]

Baseless, I disagree. And how are we to know if you were stalling—because you said so?
On day1, it’s all about circumstantial evidence and plenty points at you and CK. As for simply forgetting, I think it interesting that someone could compose a logical argument and be so forgetful.

Again, opinion isn't evidence. Just because

you

say it's stalling doesn't necessarily mean it is. You found evidence through controversial points that could or could not mean an intention to stall. My forgetfulness easily fits into the points you brought up yourself. Unless you can prove that your points are more favorable for your side of the argument, your points are baseless.
In addition, you forget that logical arguments take time and effort to make. If my attention is split onto other games in making 'logical' arguments, then it can easily lead to a lapse of memory. To add more emphasize, I'm even modding a mini game. I highly doubt that you're so perfect that nothing would slip your mind. How long did it take you to make your argument? 5 minutes? 10? How about 1 to 2 hours?

That may be true in general. In our specific case, it is not. Most confirmed within a day or two. That time frame is about when people log on.

Log in time and posting time does not correlate. Of course you must be logged on in order to post, it doesn't necessarily mean that posting occured during a log on session. Two days is enough communicate and cooperate with a stall, then confirm the next day. The fact that only one person must not confirm in order to stall gives no alibi to anyone.

[Colonel Kurtz]

because there are no set hard and fast rules for mafia, it is left to the mods discretion and I assume that they can let people talk outside the thread without informing the game as a whole if they wish. I think the point is that YOU have failed to prove that scum can only communicate at night unless otherwise noted.

I'm pretty sure there are a few, check the wiki. I believe there's one about people only being allowed to communicate during night.
Anyway, about big_kahunia's theory that since I posted in another game, and not this game, I must have been intentionally lurking, I feel that since you dolts are still rolling that fetid ball of crap around, I should address it. Assuming that because I am 'lurking', there is one simple explanation, is also bad logic.
Your argument about my stalling having to do with me being scum is based on speculation, opinion, and probably a healthy dose of you trying to stir up dust.

The fallacy of the single cause, also known as joint effect or causal oversimplification, is a logical fallacy of causation that occurs when it is assumed that there is one, simple cause of an outcome when in reality it may have been caused by a number of only jointly sufficient causes.

Often after a tragedy it is asked, "What was the cause of this?" Such language implies that there is one cause, when instead there were probably a large number of contributing factors. However, having produced a list of several contributing factors, it may be worthwhile to look for the strongest of the factors, or a single cause underlying several of them.

in statistics, a spurious relationship (or, sometimes, spurious correlation) is a mathematical relationship in which two occurrences have no logical connection, yet it may be inferred that they do, due to a certain third, unseen factor (referred to as a "confounding factor" or "lurking variable"). The spurious relationship gives an impression of a worthy link between two groups that is invalid when objectively examined.

Correlation does not imply causation is a phrase used in statistics to indicate that correlation between two variables does not imply there is a cause-and-effect relationship between the two. Its negation correlation implies causation is a logical fallacy by which two events that occur together are prematurely claimed to have a cause-and-effect relationship. It is also known as cum hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin for "with this, therefore because of this") and false cause.

If you don't feel like boring yourselves with the details of my life, just replace the next paragraph with "I was busy putting my degree to work".

Since you are so interested and speculative as to why I posted in the game I was modding and didn't confirm here, fine, I will tell you. Admittedly, this is all boring and about my personal life, but if I tell you why, will you at least just shut up? Ok, I did not have any kind of reliable internet at my house until after New Year's. I posted by having my girlfriend post for me. Allow me to repeat this. I told someone some predetermined stuff to post for me in that game. Why did I not do this myself? I am a freelance trumpet player when I'm home from school, and religious holidays are a really busy time for that. I had hardly any time for life, let alone mafia, until a few days after Christmas. I told her what to type while I was driving to gigs. I got my internet back not long ago, and I made a few posts from my girlfriend's house once I was done gigging 24/7. Apparantly she ignored the PM when I got it, and I responded once I had actually gotten back into being able to have free time.

So that's a whole lot more reasons (and a whole lot more reasonable) than "he must be stalling so he can plot with his mafia buddies (which would be cheating, whee!!)", and I'm sorry that all was so boring and stupid, and I really wish I hadn't had to tell you guys the details of my life, but I felt at this point it was necessary.

[willows_weep]

Is there a reason for no one else in the thread even bothering to investigate the time frame OUTSIDE of b_k's allegations?

the two under speculation atm had from the 23rd to the 31st amidst warnings/demands from the thread to hurry and start the game. There was mucho mas time for conference by the time the first one confirmed.

I'm not willing to vote solely based on ' they confirmed late, they MUST be mafia'.
I've never been in a game that allowed mafia pre d1 talk, though I have been in games where I didn't know until a bit that I had a pm from the mod, or realize I had to confirm in the thread not in pm. Sometimes if I was busy I would just read the pm and come back when I had the time!

So, that's the experience I'm coming from when I say 'I need more to go on' and I'm surprised that so many people are seriously condemning players with only b_k's allegations. Usually there's at least 3 schemes going on at once for d1!

[Sherlock]

he likes the way they are worded

Please note that the wording has

recently

been changed.

[chaotic_diablo]

So, that's the experience I'm coming from when I say 'I need more to go on' and I'm surprised that so many people are seriously condemning players with only b_k's allegations. Usually there's at least 3 schemes going on at once for d1!

Define "so many people," then name them.

[willows_weep]

'So many people' =
Colonel Kurtz- 3 (lazarusmoth, riktus, warpdragon)
chaotic_diablo- 2 (chaotic_diablo, big_kahunia)

You voted for yourself before b_k's post. The other votes came after. Usually for me more than 2 people who support something. Meh, I'm surprised, I mean nothing else has been going on= seriously condemning.

It's nice to try and read people from the chatting that's going on though.

Anyway, do you have any reply to 'why did you vote for yourself'? Just wondering.

[chaotic_diablo]

I got fed up with the random voting uselessness but I didn't want to lose that first vote silliness. So the solution: self-voting. It's silly and useful at the same time.

[riktus]

The mod has recently changed the rule listing:

1) Do not discuss the game outside of the thread

[EDIT]

or before game has begun.

however, this is still qualified with this:

Certain roles may allow some of the above rules to be circumvented, as specifically indicated. (I don’t think I’m revealing too much by saying that a role exists which allows rule 1 to be broken.) If you feel a mistake has been made or you’re just not sure about something, feel free to PM.

I think the clarification of the rules still leaves pregame scum communication as a possibility, hence have a problem with CK's earlier defense and will be keeping an eye on him, but I'm going to stop banging on about this for now - its not getting us anywhere. I have found nothing really scummy about his later reaction, so for now I'm going to

unvote Colonel Kurtz

.

So, that's the experience I'm coming from when I say 'I need more to go on' and I'm surprised that so many people are seriously condemning players with only b_k's allegations.
...
'So many people' =
Colonel Kurtz- 3 (lazarusmoth, riktus, warpdragon)
chaotic_diablo- 2 (chaotic_diablo, big_kahunia)

I wasn't voting based 'only on b_k's allegations', and I quite agree that we do need more to go on - what I'd really like to see is some input from:
kirbyphreak & PlaysWithSquirrels (nothing since confirm)
Masterchief (just a tongue in cheek OMGUS vote on Fircoal)
and particularly lazarusmoth with just an unexplained 3rd vote on Colonel Kurtz
We might need prods on the first 2 if we don't hear anything soon ...

[Sherlock]

Prods going out, vote count to follow.

[big_kahunia]

Lazausmoth, why did you vote CK and not CD? CD had more votes at the time. By the logic, they are both guilty. Why shift votes to one as opposed to the other?

That more than likely just means we have masons, or the moderator is reminding everyone that the mafia can talk at night.

I agree. Masons and mafia are the instances the mod’s referring to.

Though b_k, how is it that you began to investigate that specific track?
It's just a bit odd to me, to be away all weekend then have that be your first day 1 post.

I wrote the post (set it up as much as I could) when players started confirming. I didn’t write this past wkend, but much before that, before school started back up.
Btw: I’ve been “tracking,” not stalking.

I highly doubt that you're so perfect that nothing would slip your mind.

Touchy, touchy, touchy.


With of sourness directed at me, let me state the reason for doing the post.
The rationale for putting out the stalling data was to generate clash and provide a starting point. In many games w/ a day1 start, the mafia do confirm later (if they are allowed to converse during pre-game) in order to strategize. I don’t think this is a bad conclusion. Does that mean everyone who does so is mafia? Not necessarily. I think it is good circumstantial evidence. As opposed to random voting, I provided a place to start, a place to generate leads and views of players. The "they did this, so they must be scum" gets better clash than "they did this, so they perhaps, might, or possibly not or who knows for sure, be scum."


Like a few others, I am concerned at the lack of posting by others. Post Count, negating confirms and pregame posts.
Atticus 1
big_kahunia 3
chaotic_diablo 8
Colonel Kurtz 8
kirbyphreak 0
lazarusmoth 1
PlaysWithSquirrels 0
riktus 7
Masterchief 1
Fircoal 5
warpdragon 1
willows_weep 4

Others need to post more (me included). What do ya'll have to say?

[Fircoal]

I Don't know, this fight could go either, way, and it seems that I have nothing to add to it, because who knows if he's telling the truth. This is about mafia not the rules. This game though, seems to more be about if one can talk in the pre-game.

[big_kahunia]

unvote:CD
vote: larausmoth

, for lurking (like quite few players) and not answering my question. Yes, I am tired of waiting.

[PlaysWithSquirrels]

This is me posting to say that I'm not caught up on this game yet, but pledge to get there ASAP.

[PlaysWithSquirrels]

This just came to my attention: I haven't seen the movie and don't anticipate seeing it any time soon. If this is a problem, then replace me. Otherwise I'll just wiki it. I was not told of any such requirements when I first signed up for the game.

[Colonel Kurtz]

Dude, explicit instruction said that you had to have seen the movie.

Look it up on wikipedia

or rent it or something.
Meanwhile is there anyone else here who hasn't seen it?

It's a four page reread, how did you miss that?

[PlaysWithSquirrels]

Dude, explicit instruction said that you had to have seen the movie.

Look it up on wikipedia

or rent it or something.
Meanwhile is there anyone else here who hasn't seen it?

It's a four page reread, how did you miss that?

I didn't.

[big_kahunia]

PlaysWithSquirrels, just because you haven't seen the movie doesn't you don't have to share your thoughts. What do you think about the game itself?

[Colonel Kurtz]

Well, you've so far wasted two days on a problem that isn't a problem. You didn't need to bring it to anyone's attention that you hadn't seen the movie. The mod said to wiki it if you hadn't seen it, you didn't need to talk.

Essentially, it looks to me like you're killing time while you try to formulate a way to get the spotlight off you. Probably by pointing your finger at someone else.

Just go ahead and point, your argument probably will be crap because the scummiest thing that's gone on so far is big_kahunia's 'he waited to confirm so he must be scum' idiocy, but at least it will be different crap.

[chaotic_diablo]

The mod placed the movie file on his myspace or something. The link is in this game. I haven't seen it yet, but I'll do so when it's required.

I wouldn't classify BK's argument as scummy. However, since it's the only argument there, I guess it can technically be the most townish

and

the most summiest thing around.

The rationale for putting out the stalling data was to generate clash and provide a starting point. In many games w/ a day1 start, the mafia do confirm later (if they are allowed to converse during pre-game) in order to strategize. I don’t think this is a bad conclusion. Does that mean everyone who does so is mafia? Not necessarily. I think it is good circumstantial evidence. As opposed to random voting, I provided a place to start, a place to generate leads and views of players. The "they did this, so they must be scum" gets better clash than "they did this, so they perhaps, might, or possibly not or who knows for sure, be scum."

Good plan, not enough input.

unvote

vote lazarusmouth

for the reasons already provided. It's a placeholder vote until I can pick out someone who I find scummy.

I request prods!!! With pitchforks and torches!!!

[big_kahunia]

Just go ahead and point, your argument probably will be crap because the scummiest thing that's gone on so far is big_kahunia's 'he waited to confirm so he must be scum' idiocy, but at least it will be different crap.

I would appreciate if you would keep the personal attacks to a minimum. It is fine if you disargee with my points, but you could do so in a more diplomatic way and one that fosters a good playing environment. Thanks.

Regarding the game, I am satistified with my vote. All people, when you sign up for game, you have a responsibility to contribute to it. I know a few players have, but some have not.

[Colonel Kurtz]

Calling you out on a bad argument isn't a personal attack. If I said that you're scum because you fuck goats, that would be a personal attack. See the difference?