Newbie 310: It's All Over -- WOO-HOO!

[Thesp]

Vote: theopor_COD

until I know what his name means. Welcome to mafiascum!

[Thesp]

Vote: Thesp

For playing a good game in Nightless?

I'm being punished for a good game?

[Thesp]

vote: Thesp as I haven't had an opportunity to do so for, ooh, ages.

I know! You must be insanely jealous of me, as I have opportunities to vote for me all the time.

[Thesp]

I know! You must be insanely jealous of me, as I have opportunities to vote for me all the time.

It's that jealousy, worming away at me, that bred the resentment that lead to the vote, in fact. It ruined my marriage. I'd cordially request that you don't mention it again.

It makes me sad that you won't be able to come to Thespival. I know Mississippi is kind of out of the way for you.

[Thesp]

THe only reason I defended him, was because it didn't seem like a scum post. Just what I think.

Unvote: theopor_COD, Vote: Fircoal.

Methink he doth protest too much.

[Thesp]

Your defense comes down to reasserting the fact that you're pro-town. That doesn't mean much as a defense, which is why it can be seen to reveal a need to re-affirm the underlying assumption that everyone is pro-town. Basically, stating that you're pro-town reveals a guilty conscience, and the possibility in your mind of it being untrue.

Quoted for truthery.

This line of logic is really starting to get at me. I mean ... it's just too convenient, don't you think? Fircoal said the post didn't seem like a scum post, and that casts a suspicious light on him, because it asserts pro-townieness? Well, really, who isn't going to assert a pro-town inclination?

Most people don't state that they are pro-town, because they presume it (particularly newer players). Scum are more likely to insist they are pro-town as a (crude) way of trying to convince the town that they are.

[Thesp]

While I don't think theopor_COD's conviction is warranted, putting Azkar at -1 is not really all that significant. One of the votes on him was a random vote by you, who has clearly stipulated that he does not agree with the suspicion on Azkar (and therefore would not support a lynch). Also, anyone hammering Azkar this quickly would come under close scrutiny. It is not all that dangerous.

So...tempting...must resist...hammer of doom...

[Thesp]

The point is that scum would give themselves away by doing that, which is not worth lynching a townie. A pro-town player should never hammer in that situation.

Taking the step from "A pro-town player

should

never hammer" to "A pro-town player

never

hammers" is a pretty big leap. (Actually, looks like others have also harped on this.)

Hrm. I think both theopor_COD and Fircoal are most likely to be scum, but I don't think they're scum

together

. I have a stronger feeling about theopor_COD, though, the third vote is

odd

to me.

Unvote: Fircoal, Vote: theopor_COD

.

Explaining why an action "could be seen as suspicious" is as good as calling those actions suspicious in terms of its effect on other readers. It's as if you want to establish the idea and reasoning that the act was suspicious, but then distance yourself from that position. Any sort of disclaiming past statements of that sort raises my heckles.

I have a thought on this, but I want to hear VitaminR's response first.

[Thesp]

Very true, but, to a large extent, assuming that they are the same will make the latter true.

I disagree entirely. There are a number of counterfactuals against this line of reasoning as well.

It was just a response to Fircoal's question about Thesp's vote. I was trying to be responsible as an IC, because I felt like I'd just been attacking the new players rather than helping them. In hindsight, I should have indicated that I did not think it significant in that post.

I thought you

did

indicate that in your post.

To me it seems that Theopor_Cod is too involved with what happened before and is trying to accuse the same people, that sounds scummy to me.

Any thoughts?

I don't understand what you're saying here - can you help me understand?

My guess is that theopor_COD is Seol's scum partner.

[Thesp]

His main reason for placing his vote on me continues to be the supposed link between myself and Fircoal, which only seems to exist because people kept on saying it exists.

There actually was (is?) a potential link there, it was just too blatant to be a likely scum connection. Scum usually defend each other in subtler ways.

Seol, what do you think of theopor_COD?

[Thesp]

Looking at the general scheme of things we've now had Azkar at -1 and myself at -1. I've been there for a few days aswell so I'm thinking either the two scum are already on me in Thesp, Fircoal or Azkar. Or as yet they're not voting me, the following post from Vitamin got me thinking maybe he's scum and doesn't want to hammer to draw the attention to himself. Seems pretty definate to me.

So essentially, you're saying the scum either are voting for you or aren't voting for you? Seems pretty tautological.

[Thesp]

I don't buy the VitaminR wagon at all. I'm also a little surprised at you, Seol, for seemingly trying to equivocate likelihoods to the firmness of logic. The argument isn't that someone is necessarily scum under the "doth protest too much" tell, it's that scum are more likely to exhibit that behavior. It appears that VitaminR does not think scum are significantly more likely to exhibit that behavior. It looks like a mountain out of a molehill there to me. The lack of an unvote is unusual to me as well, after "it does resolve the sticking-point I had".

FOS: Seol.

I'm still happy with my vote on theopor_COD.

[Thesp]

Hmm. I'm still fairly fixated on theopor_COD, and I'm a little surprised at the lack of claim from him after essentially being told to do so (rightly, I think) by Seol. I don't agree with the VitaminR hate at all.

There are a number of likelihoods still out there, and I feel bad for saying I still need a proper re-read, even though I won't get the next chance to do so until Tuesday night.

[Thesp]

Why is it my newbie games are my hardest ones? =P

After a mildly-thorough re-read, I think it's time for me to change my tune.

Unvote: thopor_cod, Vote: Fircoal.

His approach seems as though it would be more advantageous coming from scum than from town, and doesn't feel genuine to me. I'm still leery of Seol, and still don't agree with the VitaminR hate. I had a feeling of a Fircoal/Seol pairing, but I have doubts of that after a cursory view of votecounts.

Well, I know I'm not scum, so I know I'm not scum with Azkar.

Curse your deductive logic!

Hmmm, seems a lot like mine, I think I need a scum list from Thesp, as he's the only one who hasn't gaven one.

If you must.

Fircoal
Seol
<tiny gap>
theopor_COD
Avinyl
<tiny gap>
Azkar
<large gap>
VitaminR

This game is starting to take up a great deal of time.

No kidding.

I'm most comfortable with a vote on Fircoal right now, though I'm not terribly comfortable with where things go from there. I would settle for a Seol lynch if necessary.

[Thesp]

I don't think the call for the claim was in the least bit suspicious. I don't think scum would be more likely to make that request than town would be at all.

Seol, VitaminR, do you think scum are more likely to make sympathy plays than town? (I don't mean to limit the question to only those two, anyone else with experience on the matter is welcome to weigh in.)

[Thesp]

Do you agree that it wasn't warranted at the time, though?

On the contrary, I think the call for the claim was entirely warranted.

Thesp, could you explain this in more detail?

What precisely do you think warrants further explanation?

I don't know why he thinks I'm scum, and how he can clear VitaminR, with the proof we have.

I have strong feelings VitaminR's posts are far more likely to come from town than scum.

Just checking in- I had to take my wife to the ER with some hideous stomach flu late Saturday, and as she was getting out of there Sunday evening, I went down myself. I think the worst is over, but I feel as if I've been beaten with an aluminum baseball bat.

God be with you and yours in your hour of need. Take care of your priorities first...then take care of your wife.

No, kidding of course. We'll still be here.

Still happiest with a Fircoal wagon. I'd switch to Seol as needed.

[Thesp]

The reasons for your Fircoal vote.

His approach seems as though it would be more advantageous coming from scum than from town, and doesn't feel genuine to me.

That's all I wish to divulge at this point.

I'm certain gorckat is town.

[Thesp]

huh? I haven't seen any proof of me being scum.

How this is phrased intrigues me, and makes me happier with my vote.

I think I read somewhere best tactic with Thesp is to follow him, if he town are doing well he's town, if town are doing badly he's scum.

While I'm flattered by this assessment, I am occasionally horribly wrong. I do however, still assert that I'm more likely to be right, and give the caveat that my alignment is not a given, either.

t seems like you picked me because I'm probably the best cannidate to be bandwagoned on.

I'm not sure that's an accurate assessment.

I haven't read up yet. I'm posting to apologise for being away (had a ludicrously busy week), to confirm I am going to start reading tonight, and confirm I'm going to post properly tomorrow.

Thanks for the heads-up, hope things calm down a bit for you. Sometimes RL does get in the way.

Fircoal seems to be throwing suspicion around on lots of people, trying to see where it will stick. I'm not comfortable with it.

I also strongly, strongly disagree with sentiment that gorckat is scum, even if I'm partly colored by metagame reasons.

[Thesp]

A selection from Fircoal:

unvote: Azkar
Vote: Theopor_COD

You put Azkar at -1 lynch, that's a newbie game scum tactic.

To me it seems that the two most scum like is Theopor_Cod, and VitaminR. Though I too, would like to hear from Avinyl.

Seol, I agree with you on your suspicions on Theopor_Cod, and lack of them on Azkar. Though I think Thesp is lurking to much to be cleared. Avinyl is also scummy to me in the same ways that he is scummy to Seol.
Seol and VitiminR, have confused me too much to think much about them, besides that they both could be scum, but not with each other.

Seol maybe, but I don't think that Azkar is scum.

In fact, I want to here from one of our lurkers, names Thesp. My suspicions at this point are about the same as Seol and Theopor_Cod, except the fact that they both could be scum.

I'd say that Avinyl's post may of been sincere but it doesn't clear him. I think that Thesp could be a scum partner with you VitaminR, I notice how you seem to think he's pro-town but can go the other way, maybe that's because if he turns out to be scum, the suspicion will be off of you.

no, I'm just putting out suspicions, I'm not sure on Thesp, but it seems that he's more scum then town, I'm still not seeing much that could make Thesp or Avinyl more on the town side.

Well discounting Thesp, it would be Seol, Aviynl, and Vitamin R. These are what I think are the possible scum combos.

VitaminR/ Aviynl
Seol/ Aviynl
Seol/ Azkar

Seol are in 2, and so is Aviynl, Thesp could be added to Seol, or Aviynl to make another combo. So I think that the most likely scum pair is Aviynl and Seol.

I argee that Seol and VitaminR are either good town, or good scum. I think we should lynch one of them, because it will give us more hints on the case.

I too, can see a Thesp VitaminR partnership. Seol and Avinyl have many possibilities for scum pairs.

I don't know why he thinks I'm scum, and how he can clear VitaminR, with the proof we have.

If your scum probably VitaminR, Seol, or Avinyl. Though I see the biggest possibity of it being with Avinyl then VitaminR, and not really with Seol.

that is a good point. He hasn't asked any questions, it seems he only defendes himself, and put reasons on VitaminR and Theopor_COD.

There are reasonable arguments that can be made here about context, I'm pulling out what I see so it makes you go "Hmmm....." and examine them yourself. He seems to want to keep a window of suspicion open on almost everyone. There are a few mitigating factors, but on the whole, I'm uncomfortable with his overall position (or perhaps lack thereof). Couple this with the early "methink he doth protest" and something else I'm not yet comfortable sharing (dubious tell?), I'm happiest with my vote on Fircoal.

[Thesp]

I am strongly opposed to a Fircoal lynch.

Interseting. I'm super strongly opposed to a gorckat lynch.

[Thesp]

At this point, I would suggest a Seol lynch.

I'd settle for that if we had to, but I still think Fircoal is better.

[Thesp]

I think that Fircoal and you have been inconsistent, all over the place and outright confusing at times. Thesp has been reticent about his reasons and adamant on clearing people he doesn't need to clear.

"Clearing people he doesn't need to clear"? Huh?

gorckat's predecessor came off as townie to me, and I do not think a scum Azkar would have asked to be replaced. (Sometimes I hate metagame reasons, but I can't ignore them.)

[Thesp]

"Clearing people he doesn't need to clear"? Huh?

I.e. saying that you're strongly opposed to a VitaminR or gorckat lynch.

gorckat's predecessor came off as townie to me, and I do not think a scum Azkar would have asked to be replaced. (Sometimes I hate metagame reasons, but I can't ignore them.)

Perhaps that would be true if he hadn't asked to be replaced in another game, but he essentially quit mafia all together. This was his only game. If time constraints were truly a factor (as he said), I don't think his alignment would matter that much.

It's much easier to play mafia when you're mafia, because you're not having to figure out who's who.

[Thesp]

Unvote: Fircoal, Vote: Seol.

I have zero interest in a theopor_COD lynch today.

[Thesp]

Vote: No Lynch.

I cannot imagine a reason a lynch is better in this case. I will look at the claims and counterclaims when I have time - which may be a while, I'm headed out of town for the weekend.

[Thesp]

I think it has to do with odds...either a thread in Mafia Discussion or another wiki article I can't find (until I go back to VR's post with the link) had something about towns being better off No Lynching when an even number of people are alive- it somehow makes it easier to get scum the next day.

It also limits the discussion somewhat, making it more difficult for scum to figure out what to do. There are also other considerations I'd rather not get into. The doctor should not protect a cop tonight, for what it's worth. This is an unsual instance where I think discussion is more likely to harm the town than hurt it, and I think it's probably best if we limit our dicsussion to the no-lynch proposition for the moment. If we agree we oughtn't do this, we can revert to discussing scum, but I think it's probably best to hurry into a no lynch. (I also recognize this may not be immediately obvious, and will gladly dicsuss the reasoning for doing so.)

A no lynch will pretty much leave us in the same predicament tomorrow though won't it.

It will give our "cops" another chance to investigate, which will be useful for one of them. I'm hesitant in how much I reveal because I don't want to help the scum too much.

[Thesp]

I forgot to mention - an incorrect lynch here essentially loses the game (barring the unlikely successful doc protect). If we wait a day, we have extra night information and one less suspect.

[Thesp]

@Thesp- I think I understand what you're saying. But if we No Lynch, Firc and Avi can target you, theopor or MoS and have avi "confirm" guilty on me or whoever they want my partner to be...

This would be a very, very good thing. It will narrow down the possibilities.

[Thesp]

Woohoo!

Looks like I was entirely right about Seol, and very wrong about Avinyl/gorckat. (I was watching after I died, watching all MoS's posts, thinking,

MoS is sooooooo scum!

I'm glad the town pulled it off. Nicely done, everybody, with particular props to theopor_COD and VitaminR. Good game!

[Thesp]

Good Game everyone. VitaminR was right for his scum choice at the end of the day.

Also, good job not self-destructing, as might have been easy to do. I know I rode you pretty hard for a while, and you played it well.