Open 9 - Basic Twelve Player (Game Over!) - before 400

[spectrumvoid]

unvote

A couple of things:
Ripley:
1. In post 227, he suspects IH of intentionally avoiding this thread (lurking = scummy). Directly in his next post 238, he lists a long detailed case for BM. A good explanation for this: Ripley-scum gave up on the IH case since on one bit. And since IH has been at lynch -2 for some time and still not lynched, he could be going after BM instead, since BM is the next best candidate we were discussing.

2. The main reasons I get from his wanting a quick-lynch is
a: he's frustrated with the low activity, and he thinks the day will keep dragging
b: he does not want scum to get more info via role claiming.

A: he should've guessed that his post will kick off discussion, so a doesn't stand.

B: I'd instead argue that town gains more info via role claiming. And why does he seem so sure that we'll out a cop? I'd rather push for a claim from a scummy person and start deciding whether that claim is true. That gives us way more info. I'd also argue that we cannot depend on cops, due to possibility of nightkills. We need to depend on our scumdar, and that requires information. I'd also argue that pushing for a quick-lynch at this point deprives us of that info.

And by the way, newbie 280 a 7 player game hit 20+ pages for day 1. I don't see why a lynch at page 10 with more players isn't considered a quick lynch.

vote: Ripley

Implications:
I'd argue that if we lynch Ripley and he's scum, BM is unlikely to be his scum partner.

I'd also argue that IH's alignment is uncertain. As stated earlier, Ripley could have tried for IH (town) and failed, changing to BM. Or Ripley could be deflecting the lynch to BM, implying IH-scum.

Fircoal: Unlike Fircoal, I don't see anything wrong with Fircoal not voting. I think IH was at -1 or -2, which is pretty close to lynch. So there's nothing wrong with holding back. Lowell: Are you saying we should do what Ripley said, and quick-lynch IH despite having more info now?

However, I see Fircoal's non-contributiveness as slightly scummy. I'll bring this up again tomorrow when we're guessing scum pairings, but Fircoal's not the lynch for today at the moment.

IH: I'd like you to respond to post 243.

Akbar: Anything to add at all?

AndrewS: Can't remember whether I've said it this game, so bear with me. Assuming that BM mafia wouldn't act so stupid is WIFOMish. Reason being BM could very well be mafia pretending to be stupid to make us think that he's town since scum would play more carefully.

TCS: Care to explain your FOS?

[Ripley]

spectrumvoid has in her post attempted to make it seem that I tried to get IH lynched and when that failed turned my attention to Battle Mage.

There's so much wrong with this it's hard to know where to start. I made one brief post drawing attention to the fact that IH, despite repeated assurances that he was "rereading", had posted no content for about ten days despite posting elsewhere. This is the entirety of what spectrumvoid would have you believe is my campaign for IH's lynch. A campaign which didn't even include voting for him despite his being the voteleader (on 4 votes for a while, and now on 5...)

And since IH has been at lynch -2 for some time and still not lynched, he could be going after BM instead, since BM is the next best candidate we were discussing

spectrumvoid completely distorts matters by trying to insinuate that I switched attention to the "next best candidate", when actually I was voting BM all along. I have never changed my vote. By your logic the "next best candidate" was actually

yourself

, spectrumvoid, on 2 votes along with BM. By switching my vote to you I would have bumped you up to 3, clearly a better move if I were dead set on getting the easiest person possible lynched, as you seem to be implying.

And by the way, newbie 280 a 7 player game hit 20+ pages for day 1. I don't see why a lynch at page 10 with more players isn't considered a quick lynch

This is the most awful piece of logic I've seen in a while, using a single example of an unusually long Day 1 in another game as evidence that a lynch now, in this particular game, would be a "quick lynch". I could point to a game where they lynched on Page 2 and argue the precise opposite. I won't do so because it would be insulting to people's intelligence.

The main reasons I get from his wanting a quick-lynch is

I'd also argue that pushing for a quick-lynch at this point deprives us of that info.

I object strongly to your characterizing of my arguments as "pushing for a quick lynch". As already stated, I consider the logic you use to define this as a 'quick lynch' spectacularly wrong. All your arguments that depend on that are therefore invalid.

And why does he seem so sure that we'll out a cop?

Well, if we keep on bandwagoning people and they keep on claiming, at some point we're going to have to actually lynch a claimed townie or out the cop.

I'd rather push for a claim from a scummy person and start deciding whether that claim is true. That gives us way more info.

This is a game with a known setup. The only claims you're going to get are townie or cop, almost everybody will be claiming townie, and every genuine townie claim helps the scum identify the cop. You say we can "start deciding whether a claim is true" as if we're likely to get some kind of detailed roleclaim that can be examined in context. When in fact all we're likely to get is "townie". "Deciding whether that claim is true" amounts in that case to no more than deciding whether a person is scummy or not. If you thought a person sufficiently scummy to push for a claim, how would you "evaluate" a claim of townie from that person? It's not as if they're likely to claim Mafia.

[Lowell]

SV, put your vote back on IH where it belongs. And someone hammer.

This day is way too long. If you guys want to switch to Ripley for today, you'll have to do it without me. The reasoning is dumb.

IH (or Fircoal) please! Or, wait, maybe SV is in on it too!

[The Central Scrutinizer]

TCS: Care to explain your FOS?

Not initially, seeing as Twito and Fircoal did little to explain their votes. The FOS was for precisely that reason... I am absolutely convinced that IH is scum, and at this point anyone who looks like they are attempting to derail his lynch is, in my mind, scummy. That you unvoted IH and voted Ripley is patently confusing to me, because I thought that both are probably scum, IH for all previous reasoning and Ripley because he was attempting to derail.

Another possible scenario, one which I have previously entertained (if you read my prior posts) is that you and IH are scumbuddies and that your FOSing and voting of him was distancing. That you are jumping off of his bandwagon now only serves to confirm my suspicions.

That being said, I feel far more comfortable with an IH lynch today than any other, although the following players could also get my vote if circumstances merit it:

1. Spectrumvoid: for clear distancing from IH and a blatant attempt to derail.

2. Ripley: for a derail from IH to BM, pushing a quicklynch, and a couple of other things too involved to list in my short and punchy sentence.

3. Shadowlurker: for calling out IH as scum, but failing to hammer him when the time came to lynch obvious mafia.

I would like to

retract my FOS's on Twito and Fircoal

... they were primarily meant to get you to provide additional reasoning for your vote on Ripley, and at this juncture I don't see any point in confusing the issue with a lot of unnecessary accusations. IH is scum, and I would bank on at least one, if not two of the other three I listed being scum as well.

[Fircoal]

3. Continuing the day would presumably lead to more bandwagons and more claims. By lynching at this stage we avoid any more townie claims and. most importantly, avoid outing the cop. This is really an argument for a prompt lynch rather than a lynch of BM specifically, but since he's my preferred candidate it is also by extension an argument for lynching him.

Also, here he points out that continuing the day would be bad.

Fos: IH

An "FOS" on IH? Avoiding placing the vote, are we?

IH and Fircoal are scum. Man, I'm so smart.

It's an FOS, because I voted Ripley because he seems more like scum then IH does. It still seems that Ripley wanted a fast lynch. Ripley said that having a longer discussions is bad, and having everyone point out who is suspisous is bad too. That's what I got from one of your newest posts, and to me more discussion is good. It gives us many possibitlies to consider. It gives us more proof before we lynch. You just don't want the discussion to go onto your scum buddies.

FOS: Lowell

Lowell, why are you pushing for IH, so much? It's looking like you want a fast lynch too.

[IH]

After thinking about it, I really feel that our best bet is IH. He is jumping opportunistically on a very small scum-tell and his actions previously have been rather scummy anyway. I sense that his vote on Ripley is an attempt to deflect attention away from his wagon. Therefore:

My vote was on fircoal.

= | Also, I misread number three, I didn't see that he thought that the day going on longer is bad.

unvote

Andrew, I've seriously not seen a case against me at all, except for lurking, and Jathan saying that he thinks I'm scum. Not a decent one anyways.

vote:TCS, FoS:Lowell

Show me lowell and TCS. Why do you think I'm scum.

I don't find Ripley to scummy at the moment. My main concern at the moment is the people pushing blindly at the moment.

[spectrumvoid]

Skimminng through, more tonight.

3. Continuing the day would presumably lead to more bandwagons and more claims. By lynching at this stage we avoid any more townie claims and. most importantly, avoid outing the cop.

This is really an argument for a prompt lynch rather than a lynch of BM specifically

, but since he's my preferred candidate it is also by extension an argument for lynching him.

Well, if you really want, I can give you links to around 75 games or so that I've read/played in. Note also that the longer the day drags, the higher the chance of getting scum, whether there're claims or night. Mini 361 Leper is a great example, where day 1 was so fruitful town managed to lynch all 3 scum on consecutive days, despite a few claims.

[IH]

What was the point of the bolding again?

[Akbar]

@ SV I don’t really have anything to add to what’s already been said. I was suspicious of TCS already. He seems like the one most interested in lynching IH right now, that either he’s found a huge tell on IH that I missed, or he’s just a scummy trying to whack a townie. So this is partly a confirmation vote for me as indicated when I voted.

Why isn't IH lynched yet?

Ok, I'll help ya bandwagon. Of course, if he turns out to be town, this combined with my earlier suspicion of you, will confirm your scum.

Vote IH

[Akbar]

If IH is scum. Then I guess we'll have to analyze who came to his defense.

[Twito]

This day is way too long.

It's not. If we reach 50 pages it's too long. If we reach 100 it's way too long. Right now it's not long enough.

[Patrick]

Discussion seems slow. Do I need to deadline this?

[ShadowLurker]

The scumgroup of the day is AndrewS and Lowell.

Votes on either would be appreciated.

Unvote Vote Lowell

[IH]

I can get behind Lowell myself.

unvote, vote:lowell, IGMEOY:TCS

[Fircoal]

Lowell is the 2nd most scum like, after Ripley, I'll give him a chance to defend himself.

[IH]

Patrickmod

, could we have a quick votecount?

[spectrumvoid]

I just wanted to make it clear which part of the post I was responding to. And I bolded that bit in response to Ripley's not pushing for a quick lynch response.

Regarding evaluating the claim, I always believe that yes, it's possible to look and try to guess validity of claim. I refuse to speculate about whether mafia will claim cop because I want to avoid giving hints to scum on how to claim.

I can see possibly a lynch for lowell today, with his weird lynch-hungriness. I can also see a lynch for IH and Ripley. I'm not getting where the lynch for andrew is coming from.

[Patrick]

The Quick Votecount

Battle Mage (1) -- Ripley
IH (4) -- The Central Scrutiniser, Lowell, Akbar, AndrewS
The Central Scrutiniser (1) -- Battle Mage
Ripley (3) -- Twito, Fircoal, Spectrumvoid
Lowell (2) -- Shadowlurker, IH

Not Voting: Nobody
11 alive, 6 to lynch.

[Ripley]

The scumgroup of the day is AndrewS and Lowell.

Votes on either would be appreciated.

Is that the same AndrewS as this:

I'm fairly certain AndrewS is town by the way. All votes should be off him, look over his posts in isolation, he dropped an extremely strong town tell.

?

Well, if you really want, I can give you links to around 75 games or so that I've read/played in.

Please, please don't. Ever.

[Fircoal]

The scumgroup of the day is AndrewS and Lowell.

Votes on either would be appreciated.

Is that the same AndrewS as this:

I'm fairly certain AndrewS is town by the way. All votes should be off him, look over his posts in isolation, he dropped an extremely strong town tell.

?

Very interesting. But what were the post #'s for those posts.

[Ripley]

Very interesting. But what were the post #'s for those posts.

1. 262

2. 145

[spectrumvoid]

This is the most awful piece of logic I've seen in a while, using a single example of an unusually long Day 1 in another game as evidence that a lynch now, in this particular game, would be a "quick lynch". I could point to a game where they lynched on Page 2 and argue the precise opposite. I won't do so because it would be insulting to people's intelligence.

The offer of links was in response to this.

[Fircoal]

Game 298 was a page 2 day 1 lynch, that I was in. But I do not want to head down that road again.

[Fircoal]

Newbie 298 was a page 2 day 1 lynch, that I was in. But I do not want to head down that road again.

Sorry, that's Newbie 298

[ShadowLurker]

The scumgroup of the day is AndrewS and Lowell.

Votes on either would be appreciated.

Is that the same AndrewS as this:

I'm fairly certain AndrewS is town by the way. All votes should be off him, look over his posts in isolation, he dropped an extremely strong town tell.

?

Well, if you really want, I can give you links to around 75 games or so that I've read/played in.

Please, please don't. Ever.

Yea. +protown points for ripley