If we get a counter-claim, we have a 50% chance of hitting scum. If we don't get a counter-claim then we got one innocent (Cop) confirmed and if they got a guilty/innocent we got that out of the way and are either narrowed down to a 66% (confirmed innocent), 50%(investigation dead... so 2/4 of hitting scum) or 100%(confirmed scum) chance of hitting scum...
Otherwise we have a 40% (2/5) chance of hitting scum?
Of course, if the Cop claims he is basically sacrificing himself for the town as he'd be marked for death come nightfall. So it's his choice.
Whats everyone else's opinion on Cop claiming?
You ski all the way to the center of the lake. It's a race! It's tight between IH and Blackberry but in the end Blackberry finds extra strenght from bottle of vodka while IH falls down kinda drunk. So Blackberry is the first to arrive.
When everybody gets there.. well Fircoal is still taking a break with a sixpack of beers but he is on his way.. you unpack your bags take out the jigs and vodka and all that and start drilling holes to the ice.
Another race whoohoo! Who can make most holes? After a dozen holes you all feel pretty tired and decide to drink a bit while waiting for Fircoal to get there.
Not voting: 5 (Fircoal, Romanus, IH, spectrumvoid, Blackberry)