Mafia 62: Suspicion in Sicily - Game over!

[hollywoody1221]

D)

"Yes, I have done something legitmately scummy. However, I am not scum, so I will do my best to prove to the accuser that despite the fact that I have done something scummy, he should be focusing on someone who is, y'know, actually scum."

D) is a really major option, and probably the most important, which makes it's omission all the more annoying.
A question. Have you ever played mafia before, on another board? Do you have a link?

Okay, firstly
Yes, I've played mafia before. If I hadn't, I would have started out by playing on 'Road to Rome'. I've played it live, and online, and there are positives and negatives to both. I'm not going to question that you've been playing for a longer time than me, as is seen on every post we make. So, yes, you would have the online experience on me, which is more important, as we are online. I don't know where I've been 'legitimately scummy'. If it was the first time you quoted me, then we must agree to disagree. Otherwise, yes, I would agree with your statement D.

Yes, throwing out that I'm not the doctor was not wise, but with 18 players, and only 1 doctor, it was reasonably unlikely that I was the doctor anyway.

I chose 80 percent, once again, because that is my internal belief that I will, in the end, believe you to be scum. I think, out of 20 times, that I'm going to believe you to be scum more 10 times, but believe you to be town more than once. I still believe you to be scum, but I can say that you are putting up a hell-of-a-reasoning for me not to.

When I list out my 3 options A,B,C, those are the ones that came to my mind. I personally didn't think I had played scummy, and if I did it was an oversight. I obviously wouldn't want to go with A and B, as they would clearly result in a townie being lynched.

[Mr. Flay]

Tenth Vote Count of Day One:

Toaster Strudel - 5 (Ancalagon, Panzerjager, ~N9V~, Rand Althor, scotmany12)

kinkster - 4 (Primate, VitaminR, Raffles, Phoebus)
Raffles - 3 (Jalyn, Toaster Strudel, Dragon Phoenix)
Dragon Phoenix - 2 (hollywoody1221, AlexPaoletti)
Panzerjager - 1 (Cubsfan4ever)
hollywoody1221 - 1 (Yosarian2)

Not voting - 2 (spectrumvoid, kinkster)

With eighteen alive, it will take ten votes to lynch.

[Toaster Strudel]

Vote TS

I did not like him pushing for a lynch in the beginning of the game, and I do not like him attacking raffles. I admit, raffles was acting a bit scummy, but TS posts right after him attacking him simply because TS has more votes than raffles. Raffles was directing very little, if any, at TS, but TS seems to be offended some way. I dislike that whole situation.

Is it me, or is the timing of this vote, and its reasoning, rather strange?

[PJ.]

I don't like the reasoning. Don't mind the timing.

[AlexPaoletti]

What you will learn is that the scum you're trying to chase down will act, if anything, more helpful than the town. They will make sure that each of their points is perfectly explained, they will have back-up and contingency plans, they will rarely slip, because they are making an effort not to slip. So you have two groups. The scum are trying to appear as pro-town as possible. The Town are trying to weedle out the people trying to act as pro-town as possible.

http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php ... Too_Townie

[Ancalagon]

Kudos to Alex.

[VitaminR]

I do think Primate is exaggerating the importance of hollywoody's phrasing a bit. The phrases "ally" and "fellow townie" don't really stand out in hollywoody's posts.

I do think hollywoody's logic is a bit off, but the DP-Phoebus-Yos-Primate pattern is definitely there to some extent.

I'm not sure how significant that is now, though. It could be explained by a lot of things.

[Primate]

Oh, I was exaggerating it in my example. The point was to make him see how it could be considered anti-town, not to accuse him of it. And they jumped out at me, when I read his post *shrug*.

(I'll respond to the other things some other time)

[Phoebus]

but the DP-Phoebus-Yos-Primate pattern is definitely there to some extent.

You sadden me.

Surely you can see through this conspiracy towards the truth that is experience hunting in packs??

[Primate]

My heart warms a little every time I get included in that list.

[Phoebus]

Is it at 350 yet? I have a batch of cookies that need a-baking!

[spectrumvoid]

I'm sorry for disappearing, I was sick.

I promise content at the latest wednesday.

[Jalyn]

The last few pages of this thread seem to be more about how to play mafia then any actual playing of mafia.

Hollywoody, as to the actual theory that you proposed... I thought it was well spoken and the attention to detail was great - both things that make mafia much more enjoyable for me, so thanks. I do think that catching a 4 person scum group based on their blatent interaction on day 1 is a tad unlikely. Especially when you're talking about people experienced enough to know that even if no one caught them at the time, those first pages will be reread further into the game and could be used to catch them. So, it's something to keep in mind, but I wouldn't consider it evidence of anything at this point.

As for my vote, I'm happy with where it is at the moment.

[kinkster]

The last few pages of this thread seem to be more about how to play mafia then any actual playing of mafia.

Hollywoody, as to the actual theory that you proposed... I thought it was well spoken and the attention to detail was great - both things that make mafia much more enjoyable for me, so thanks. I do think that catching a 4 person scum group based on their blatent interaction on day 1 is a tad unlikely. Especially when you're talking about people experienced enough to know that even if no one caught them at the time, those first pages will be reread further into the game and could be used to catch them. So, it's something to keep in mind, but I wouldn't consider it evidence of anything at this point.

As for my vote, I'm happy with where it is at the moment.

thats the most sensilble thing written over the last few pages, seems to me one or 2 are going out of there way to completley confuse matters with long unessesary posts not saying its scummy just in some respects unessessary.

as for my vote im unsure at the moment hollywood raised one or 2 half decent theories and if hes to be followed then DP looks a good bet , but he also made a few mistakes which throws some suspicion his way as well.

Im well aware that im on 4 and by not voting may throw further suspicion my way but im gonna hold until tomorrow when i can re read some of the posts

[hollywoody1221]

as for my vote im unsure at the moment hollywood raised one or 2 half decent theories and if hes to be followed then DP looks a good bet , but he also made a few mistakes which throws some suspicion his way as well.

Has anyone ever heard the story of 'The Jade of Master Ho?' It's an ancient parable, with reasoning that, I think, parallels what I am trying to do. Perhaps I'm being a little bit arrogant, comparing myself to a 'hero', but time shall tell:

THE JADE OF MASTER HO
Once a man of Qu named Master Ho found a piece of jade matrix in the Qu Mountains and took it to court and presented it to King Li."
King Li instructed the jeweler to examine it, and the jeweler reported, 'It is only a stone.'
The king, supposing that Ho was trying to deceive him, ordered that his left foot be cut off in punishment.
"In time King Li passed away and King Wu came to the throne, and Ho once more took his matrix and presented it to King Wu. King Wu ordered his jeweler to examine it, and again the jeweler reported, 'It is only a stone.' The king, supposing that Ho was trying to deceive him as well, ordered that his right foot be cut off.
Ho, clasping the matrix to his breast, went to the foot of the Qu Mountains, where he wept for three days and nights, and when all his tears were cried out, he wept blood in their place. The king, hearing of this, sent someone to question him. 'Many people in the world have had their feet amputated-- why do you weep so piteously over it?' the man asked.
. Master Ho said, 'I do not grieve because my feet have been cut off. I grieve because a precious jewel is dubbed a mere stone, and a man of integrity is called a deceiver. This is why I weep.'
Then the king ordered the jeweler to cut and polish the matrix, and when he had done so a precious jewel emerged. Accordingly it was named 'The Jade of Master Ho.
-----------
Within this parable, there is some evident truth. I presented a rather long, with, admittedly, a few mistakes. Within that, however, is a truth, I think. If we lynch Dragon Phoenix today, which would prove that I was at least partly right, then we have moved forward a great deal. We would be able to follow the tried and true patterns of the game, and make our analysis from there, if only we cut and polish this theorem I set out among you.

[Yosarian2]

If we lynch Dragon Phoenix today, which would prove that I was at least partly right, then we have moved forward a great deal.

...

It's comments like this that make it hard to move my vote off of you. Like how you're just talking like it's a given fact that if we lynch dragon phenox that he will be scum and that that will prove that you're a good guy and that all your suspicions are right. It's way over the top to make those kind of comments based on the limited information we have, and it's just not feeling genuine to me.

[hollywoody1221]

Yosarian, you're right on at least one count
I did not say that by lynching DP, we'd hopefully be lynching scum. It is a situation that I'm sure we've all had, in which our head thinks faster than our fingers, and we simply overlook something that is important to the argument. But, another part of my argument was that if we lynched Dragon Phoenix, it would mean that a number of people have at least, on the surface, agreed with me that he was suspicious.

[PJ.]

I ignored this game and a lot of stuff has happened. Please allow me time to catch up. Just in case

Unvote

[PJ.]

I really have nothing to say after catching up other then, I don't think DP is scum, but I do feel that either Phoebus or Hollywoody is scum. Just the wording of their post seem off and could even be some strangly huge distancing tactic with Primate and Yos latching on as IC townies. This seems less likely then one being scum and one being town again with Primate and Yos protown. I will toss my hat into the

Vote:Phoebus

fire.

[Ancalagon]

I really don't see much of the evidence that DP is scum.

Present it to us, hollywoody.

[Phoebus]

@ Jalyn - Hear hear!

@ kinkster - *sigh*

[kinkster]

@ Jalyn - Hear hear!

@ kinkster - *sigh*

?

[hollywoody1221]

Okay Analcagon, here is my reasoning behind the DP vote
My basis for suspicion starts from page 5

Unvote Cubsfan4ever

Interesting how quickly that bandwagon started to develop beyond 3 votes. Food for thought later in the game.

For now,

Vote mole

I do not like non-voters.

It is fair enough to not like a nonvoter, but some people are not ones to 'random vote', especially after a few pages. It could create suspicion that could come back to haunt them. Even though mole turned out not to show up, and apparently has a history of doing so, we should not be lynching someone who will be replaced.
Also, he's part of the initial bandwagon on Cubsfan, then gets 'interested' when it starts to develop. If he is voting for Cubsfan, wouldn't he already be interested and glad that he is getting more votes. Unless, of course, he doesn't believe they are scum. This poses the question, though, of :Why vote for someone if you don't have at least some belief that they are scum? Perhaps he knows they are not scum, or perhaps he didn't explain it well enough. I'm obviously leaning towards him being scum, as he has been in the game just enough to not warrant suspicion from the players (such as himself) who vote for someone who isn't active, while not providing any real help to the investigation.

Secondly, on page 8

Well, I voted mole for not voting, but his replacement Jalyn has also not voted yet. Comfortable with my vote on her.

After 8 pages, there must be someone more suspicious than someone who has not placed a vote, especially since that person has recently entered the game. I'm not willing to call that suspicious yet, as he is clearly within his right to vote on someone he feels is slowing up the game. But, within the same page,

Unvote jalyn
vote spectrumvoid

Switching to the next non-voter.

I become suspect of him at this point, and point it out almost immediately after his post.

Unvote jalyn
vote spectrumvoid

Switching to the next non-voter.

Surely you must have found someone more suspicious to vote for than a nonvoter by now....right? I mean, after eight pages, we have to have someone you think is suspicious for something other than nonvoting.

he replies with a 'nope', which starts some alarm bells going off in my head. I am comfortable with my TS vote at the time, but am unconciously uneasy of DP's actions.
On my first 'long post' on page 10, I state a similar phrase

Dragon Phoenix- Has made a number of votes, that while keeping him in the public eye, are not helpful. After 7 or 8 pages into a game, we should not need to be lynching someone based on them not being here. That is so unhelpful to the lynching of mafia, as someone must have become at least somewhat suspicious to you.

I am strongly against voting for someone because they are not here for two reasons
1)They may be legitimately unable to use a computer. That means that we are lynchng someone that can't post, can't defend themselves, or present any argument. In our case, by lynching an absentee, we have like a 4 or 5 in 18 chance of lynching mafia. By studying all the information we have available, we (hopefully) increase our chance of lynching mafia.
2)They could have forgotten to show up, which means we're lynching a person whose going to be replaced. Hopefully the replacee would add information and discussion to the game, as Jalyn has done.

[Jalyn]

I think the one thing you are missing, hollywoody, is that a vote or two for someone does not necessarily mean that the person voting wants them to be lynched. At least, at this stage of the game. Early votes when it takes a lot to lynch are more about drawing attention to the person or gathering a reaction from other people.
For instance, someone might vote for a minor reason and then note how many people vote the person based on their reasoning.

[hollywoody1221]

Ahh, but if you're trying to draw attention to someone, then you find them suspicious, don't you?