Open 11 - Pie C9 (Game over) - before 400

[Nightfall]

Theory ->

IF

we did have a succesful doc protect, we might also have a cop investigation with a result. Would a mass claim help?
We could potentially semi clear 4 out of the 6th of us that way.

[Patrick]

I thought about it, but we shouldn't be hasty. Cop could have been roleblocked, or could have investigated the doc or the guy protected, or maybe scum no killed so it doesn't guarantee 4 players cleared.

Something to think about though.

[Skruffs]

Side note: We're potentially at LYLO.

[Ripley]

I'd been thinking during the night that if both power roles survived I'd probably suggest a mass claim. It seemed that it would improve our chances of hitting scum however it turned out, and hitting scum had to take priority over anything else. I hadn't thought so much about this situation, with 6 of us still alive. I'm not sure the extra person's actually that much use to us. We're still almost certainly finished if we lynch wrong today, aren't we? Only another successful doc protect would save us. And we're basically picking scum from 6 people rather than 5. And we don't even know for sure if last night's protectee is cleared. This is the kind of thing that's making me stop and wonder whether the scum did do this on purpose.

[Patrick]

A no kill on night 1 of a 7 player game is pretty rare I think. In this setup, the scum would forfeit a chance of hitting a powerole, which doesn't seem too clever to me.

[Skruffs]

Ripley - Scum had no reason not to target, especially with an open setup adn two actions a night. (Which seems unfair for town, it's basically a newbie with increased power for mafia)

Assuming they did both their actions, they already know that neither of the two people they targetted (for kill and roleblock) was the doctor. Tonight they will probably target two different people, which is the OTHER two people, and they will kill the doctor, or block him and kill someone else..

Secondly, why would you say that the scum have 6 people to target? What benefit would the scum have in targetting themselves? No, it's out of 4. We have to lynch right today, it at least gives the town a fifty/fifty chance tonight of getting another successful protection in.

If the cop got a successful result last night, then saying so would result in one scum killed. Not sure what would happen tonight then, presumably he'd be protected.
If he didn't, I would suggest not claiming.

[Ripley]

Assuming they did both their actions, they already know that neither of the two people they targetted (for kill and roleblock) was the doctor. Tonight they will probably target two different people, which is the OTHER two people, and they will kill the doctor, or block him and kill someone else.

This is true, So there is absolutely no chance of a successful doc protect tonight if we lynch wrongly, which means if we lynch wrongly, we lose.

Secondly, why would you say that the scum have 6 people to target? What benefit would the scum have in targetting themselves? No, it's out of 4.

I have no idea what you're saying here. I think you misunderstood something I said.

I still think I'm inclined to support a mass claim. It improves our chances of hitting scum regardless of how they choose to handle it. At least, I think so. I don't want to go into the scum options in detail as when you do that you generally end up advising them which you think is best.

Would the scum be hoping that we claim or that we don't? My guess is they hope we don't. I could be wrong. Any other opinions?

One other option would be that the cop comes forward if they have a guilty result, and the doc then judges whether or not to come forward also. For example, if the doc had protected the cop, it would almost certainly be right to stay quiet unless there was a counterclaim.

[Skruffs]

One other option would be that the cop comes forward if they have a guilty result, and the doc then judges whether or not to come forward also. For example, if the doc had protected the cop, it would almost certainly be right to stay quiet unless there was a counterclaim.

I agree with this. I hadn't even considered the doctor being able to clear the person they protected last night. Good insight.

I still think claiming should only happen in the 66% chance that the cop wasn't blocked last night.

[Ripley]

I still think claiming should only happen in the 66% chance that the cop wasn't blocked last night.

So - you think the cop should come forward if they have any result at all? But should otherwise stay silent and we try to find scum without claiming. Is this right?

I'm not giving my opinion on this right now. Just checking that I understand exactly what you mean.

[Nightfall]

Thinking out loud.

Cop claims,
We see if someone counter claims
Caop claims his result.
Doc, if he protected somone other than the two above claims his role.
If no one counter claims doc claims who he protected.
We see if scum squirm.

[Skruffs]

We know doc wasn't targetted by the two actions (successful protect)
The other three townies, one of them is the cop
Cop had a 33% chance of being blocked.

If the cop has a successful investigation - he got scum - than he should claim.
There's a 33% chance that he is the one the doctor protected - the doctor definitely knows one townie now, assuming that the mafia tried to kill last night. If the cop is counterclaimed, and one of the claimed cops is the one the doctor protected, the doctor can claim to clear the cop.


However, scum can also do a double claim and hope for a mislynch.

So for now let's just try and lynch scum. Don't vote for anyone who already has a vote on them, if you are town, and we can't speedlynch.

[Twito]

Pie <3

[Patrick]

I'm happy enough with the cop claiming if they have a result and then we see where we are.

Twito - mind actually posting some content?

[Ripley]

[quote="Patrick"]I'm happy enough with the cop claiming if they have a result and then we see where we are. [\quote]
Problem with that is, if nobody comes forward, the scum know who the cop is. Whereas the rest of us, including the doc, don't.

[Skruffs]

Wow... The cop might have an innocent result. If he does, scum doesn't know anything.
No baiting, here, either of you.

[Ripley]

Wow... The cop might have an innocent result. If he does, scum doesn't know anything.

Sorry but I don't understand your point here.

No baiting, here, either of you.

As far as I can see Patrick is just supporting something you suggested yourself in posts 305 and 307. And even if you think that's baiting, all I did was to suggest a weakness of the strategy, so how can you be accusing us both of the same thing? Maybe I've misunderstood what you mean by the term.

I'm still leaning towards a mass claim. If yesterday is anything to go by, I don't see us getting far by trying to find scum purely by discussion.

Where's ChannelDelibird?

[Patrick]

That's true Ripley. There would be no benefit to the cop staying hidden in that case because the scum would know who he is. The cop coming forward in that case would give us him as confirmed if there is no counterclaim, but would make him useless as long as the mafia roleblocker lives.

Still, with luck, the cop wasn't blocked. I support the cop claiming. Then maybe the doc depending what we get from the cop.

[Nightfall]

So should we vote on whether or not the cop should claim?

[Skruffs]

"Problem with that is, if nobody comes forward, the scum know who the cop is. Whereas the rest of us, including the doc, don't."
Thing is last night was the only effective night a claimed cop gets. Tonight a claimed cop will be blocked if we mislynch today - if the cop was blocked, then saying so tells nobody anything. If he got an innocent, and doesn't come out with it, scum will not know if they blocked a cop or a townie. As soon as he says who he is, he's blocked tonight, unless we can be sure to lynch scum.

[bird1111]

Prodded CDB

[Ripley]

Thing is last night was the only effective night a claimed cop gets. Tonight a claimed cop will be blocked if we mislynch today - if the cop was blocked, then saying so tells nobody anything. If he got an innocent, and doesn't come out with it, scum will not know if they blocked a cop or a townie. As soon as he says who he is, he's blocked tonight, unless we can be sure to lynch scum.

You say "If we mislynch today", and talk of the cop being blocked tonight unless we lynch scum, but as far as I can see we cannot win if we mislynch today. It's game over. It would go to night as a formality only. The scum would block or kill the doc and that ends the game.

Does anybody disagree with this?

So I'm not even thinking beyond today's lynch and maximising our chances of getting it correct. Our basic starting odds are 1 in 3. I think a mass claim is the best chance for reducing those odds as much as possible, which is the reason I still think it's the best option.

Incidentally, let's be quite clear that at this stage we're only discussing options. I don't think anybody should claim anything, until we've had input from everybody at the very least.

[bird1111]

You say "If we mislynch today", and talk of the cop being blocked tonight unless we lynch scum, but as far as I can see we cannot win if we mislynch today. It's game over. It would go to night as a formality only. The scum would block or kill the doc and that ends the game.

I'll go ahead and state that if the town mislynches today, I won't even go to night as the scum will have fufilled their win condition due to it being impossible for them to not win.

[ChannelDelibird]

I'm here. I'm leaving for school now but I'll post this afternoon when I get back. Sorry for the wait.

[Skruffs]

I agree with you, Ripley, but we should minimize town's losses if possible.
It's worth rereading.

[Twito]

I doubt scum no killed in this situation. I'll post better content soon enough. Tomorrow I guess.