Mini 1566: Lunar Silver Star Story Complete (Game Over)

[mastin2]

Heck with it, upgrading tags.
VOTE: Kdub.

[BROseidon]

carry me pls mastin.

I have finals through Monday, but them I'm done with college for ever (although senior week is gonna be a drunken stupor because lol).

[BROseidon]

Pretty sure last scum is kdub or Aegor, though.

VOTE: kdub sheeping mastin is fun!

[Kdub]

Yet Aegor delivered the hammer. Kdub's vote was just a "shot in the dark"--the type of vote easily removed. Aegor's was a hammer vote, which if he was scum would leave him alone.

My HKC vote was my last opportunity to post before the deadline (I believe I indicated as such), so there was no chance I could remove that vote even if I wanted to.

The rest of your case seems like you're starting with a goal of looking for reasons to call me scum and then trying to look for interpretations of things to fit that conclusion. Your case lacks anything I can directly respond to because it has very little to do with me and a lot to do with people who are now dead.

Basically, if I were sheeping the names of trusted town players, I'd be voting Mac, but since I'm following my own self right now and I feel like we're in game-winning mode, I'm voting for kdub. I think this plan even works if you suspect me to be the last scum and lynch me first. But I need to run the exact setup math to figure it out for surez. Basically, I THINK we've got it won, 'specially if you sheep me, but I'm not absolutely sure about that.

Can you explain how you think we've got it won? If you assume Mac clears himself tonight, town can't go into the final day with more than one "confirmed" player, meaning the final day would include two out of me/you/Aegor/SG. If lynching me today or tomorrow somehow ensures that scenario is a town win, I'd accept that, but I don't see how you are getting that.

[Squirrel Girl]

The VCA shows a trend which I THINK points to Aegor, but it's based off of abstract (and largely arbitrary) things, making a ton of assumptions about the gamestate that I have no way of knowing actually hold water. So I brought it up mainly to see if others could shed some light on it.

Okay.
Can you explain how your VCA points to Aegor?

At this point, I think it's down to mastin or Aegor for today's lynch.

What is the case on Mastin?

Which really leaves Aegor/kdub

Welcome to the neighborhood

[mastin2]

VOTE: kdub sheeping mastin is fun!

Sheeping Mastin also makes her paranoid! (Okay, I think I did ask to be sheeped, so I guess not as much, but still.)

The rest of your case seems like you're starting with a goal of looking for reasons to call me scum and then trying to look for interpretations of things to fit that conclusion. Your case lacks anything I can directly respond to because it has very little to do with me and a lot to do with people who are now dead.

The former, no, you were just among the more likely candidates because of the latter, yes, I'm using dead scum players and dead town players combined with VCA to scumhunt. Which resulted in the POE where you were among the main possibilities. Is this a rock-solid case, no. IS it a case, honestly not that much of one; it's more of a 'best guess vote' that I just so happen to think should be followed.

Can you explain how you think we've got it won?

I'm not exactly sure about the math, so I could be wrong and it's objectively only a 50/50, but I think it's possible to do better. As I said, still crunching the numbers.

Can you explain how your VCA points to Aegor?

General traits that come up in lazy-VCA that ignore context, basically abstract yet vaguely holding validity as a scumhunting tool.

What is the case on Mastin?

Objectively speaking, you can actually make a fairly decent one against me off of dead scum's defense of my slot.

[BROseidon]

I'm in finals period and playing with what the gamestate was before the crash, as much as I was following it then (which was more than I let on, but still not super-intense).

Mac is confirmable on penguin, both are very likely town.

You're probably town.

SG was probably SDML yesterday.

So many options left...

[Aegor]

Will post later tonight.

[Squirrel Girl]

Can you explain how your VCA points to Aegor?

General traits that come up in lazy-VCA that ignore context, basically abstract yet vaguely holding validity as a scumhunting tool.

Are you intentionally trying to be vague when answering this question? Because I don't think I should need to play twenty questions and minutae string this out to get you to answer what is a fairly basic request. Could you please just explain your VCA and why it reached the conclusion of Aegor now - or are you intending to use a few words that say nothign and act like you've answered anything again?

What is the case on Mastin?

Objectively speaking, you can actually make a fairly decent one against me off of dead scum's defense of my slot.

I don't disagree, but would still like to see him state his reasoning. Is there a reason for this interjection? Are you looking to have me change my question or withdraw it or what? I don't understand why you're saying this and for what purpose.

So many options left...

What I said about you prior to the crash still stands.
Could you please start playing or admit that you have no time and replace out so we can get someone who kind of cares a bit more in that slot? You're being almost as frustrating as Mastin's non-answer answers.

I also need Mac back in here, this is *not* how you earn an extra rap in he QT.

[mastin2]

Are you intentionally trying to be vague when answering this question?

No? I mean...that's really it. I don't have a detailed description on why I thought the VCA vaguely pointed towards Aegor. It really was just a bunch of general vague thingies using fairly arbitrary criteria that sorta pointed that way to me. Like, you're asking me to explain something that I've already given the most detailed existing explanation for. I can try using alternative vocabulary, but you're not going to get any more depth than what you have, because you've already gone to the bottom layer. Arbitrary trends in VCA, how wagons formed, positioning, switching, and whatnot. I really can't give you more than that because that's really all there was to it.

Is there a reason for this interjection? Are you looking to have me change my question or withdraw it or what? I don't understand why you're saying this and for what purpose.

None that I can think of. I just kinda saw it and commented on it. Not everything I say is going to be with purpose; sometimes, I just blurt things out. I'm looking forward to Kdub's official reasoning too.

[Aegor]

I am fine with a Kdub lynch for reasons that I have definitely thought before and (I believe) have posted before.

I still feel extremely uncomfortable with Mac, but that will sort itself out tonight. Still think BRO should die. Mastin kind of makes me uncomfortable as well, especially given the slot's previous occupants.

Realistically, I would lynch {Kdub, mastin2}.

[Squirrel Girl]

@Mastin - use the alternate vocabulary then. What might be nice is taking your answer "arbitrary trends, how wagons formed, yadda-yadda" and presenting them like this;

Abritrary Trends;

Example

Example

Explanation of examples.

How wagons formed.

Example

Example

Explanation of examples.

Since that is, what I am asking for. So now that you understand what I've been asking for maybe you can manage an answer, yes and please?

@Aegor - what is your case on Mastin?

[Squirrel Girl]

@Aegor - what is your case on Mastin?

@Mastin - hold in the blurt also

[Aegor]

POE narrows down my scumspects to Kdub and Mastin (other than BRO/Mac). And the slot has not been doing much for me in general, so IDK.

[penguin_alien]

Sorry folks, back in the game.

UNVOTE: mastin2

...no idea why I was voting her. Seriously hope it was an artifact vote from my predecessor, because I'll be very surprised if this is scum-mastin.

Don't remember everything that was going on but in catching up:

Town-BRO (...right, cop clear) town-mastin, likely town-SG, will-prove-himself-tonight Mac. So yeah, Aegor or Kdub. Leaning Aegor on gut.

More tonight.

[Squirrel Girl]

POE narrows down my scumspects to Kdub and Mastin (other than BRO/Mac). And the slot has not been doing much for me in general, so IDK.

So...lurking? I think she has been doing more than Penguin or BRO or Mac, no?

[Squirrel Girl]

Heck, at least from my perspective Mastin is one of the top two or so active posters in the game.

[Kdub]

What is the case on Mastin?

It's mostly based on POE and zMuffin's behavior with regard to the wagons on you/HKC yesterday. mastin himself hasn't been particularly town or scum.

I'm not exactly sure about the math, so I could be wrong and it's objectively only a 50/50, but I think it's possible to do better. As I said, still crunching the numbers.

I'm not sure how there can be any serious "number crunching" when it's 50/50, but I await your explanation.

I don't mind too much to be today's lynch if mastin and Aegor are next because I'm fairly confident it's one of them, and if I'm wrong, I don't feel like any of us three are likely to win a lylo against SG-scum or penguin-scum. Either way, it probably doesn't change much, but I'd prefer to lynch someone who I know has a chance of flipping scum today.

[Squirrel Girl]

zMuffin's behavior with regard to the wagons on you/HKC yesterday

What are you seeing there? I didn't see anything that twigged me much one way or t'other from him.

[Aegor]

So...lurking? I think she has been doing more than Penguin or BRO or Mac, no?

Heck, at least from my perspective Mastin is one of the top two or so active posters in the game.

Active posting does not make me townread someone. Not posting does make me scumread them. I do not think mastin has been scumhunting at all, no.

Again, Kdub or mastin for me.

[Mac]

I'm still alive. I don't think much has changed in terms of my thoughts (ie Aegor) but there's some posts I haven't read and won't get to read until tomorrow or tonight at least.

[borkjerfkin]

Votecount 4.3

[2] Aegor (Mac, Squirrel Girl)
[2] Kdub (mastin2, BROseidon)

[3] Not Voting (Aegor, Kdub, penguin_alien)

With 7 alive, it is 4 to lynch.

Let me know if you see any problems.

Deadline is in (expired on 2014-06-11 08:00:00)

[mastin2]

@Mastin - use the alternate vocabulary then. What might be nice is taking your answer "arbitrary trends, how wagons formed, yadda-yadda" and presenting them like this;
Abritrary Trends;
Example
Example
Explanation of examples.

How wagons formed.
Example
Example
Explanation of examples.

Since that is, what I am asking for. So now that you understand what I've been asking for maybe you can manage an answer, yes and please?

Um, sure. Not at this moment, though; that'll take a fair amount of time to do.

mastin herself hasn't been particularly town or scum.

A regret about only coming in now is that most of the people who would be able to tell ya that yes I most certainly have been town are already dead.

I do not think mastin has been scumhunting at all, no.

Admittedly, I've probably not done nearly as much as could be done (though JUST off of D4 posting...there's really no slot that isn't guilty of that ), but none at all?

[Squirrel Girl]

Active posting does not make me townread someone. Not posting does make me scumread them. I do not think mastin has been scumhunting at all, no.

Again, Kdub or mastin for me.

So your issue is that she hasn't been scumhunting? I agree that she's been weirdly conservative about explaining the logic behind the reads but I think she's done a normal job in showing scumhunting. I feel like I have to be misunderstanding you.

Um, sure. Not at this moment, though; that'll take a fair amount of time to do.

I'll keep poking, I'm good at that.

[Aegor]

Nope. You do not misunderstand me at all.


VOTE: KDub = L-1