NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[Kublai Khan]

I'm sorry undo but I have an oral contract with Glork to ignore him until 3p lylo

Contracts with scum aren't legally binding.

[Glork]

I like how undo's first and second points are inaccurate at best, his third point is something he himself admits is WIFOM, and his fourth point is an outright lie.

[Glork]

That said, I appreciate that he tried hard. I imagine it's fun going through all that formatting to make a pretty looking post that gets brought into question by a one-liner, an emoticon, and a snarky follow-up post.

[Glork]

Well crap.

Undo, if I may ask you one two-part question in complete good faith:

How exactly do you define "making a case" and why is the absence of "cases" an indicator of scumminess?

[CrashTextDummie]

Sotty, I find your recent case against me fairly disturbing. Not so much that you're eyeballing me as a potential LML-buddy, but that you prepared this line of attack yesterday in the absence of an LML flip and under the pretense of "trying to get a read on Yos and [me]".

To answer your accusation, LML's Tigris vote wasn't ambiguous. It was the 6th post of the day, a fake dice roll that clearly had no meaning (and couldn't have had any meaning) and that already disqualifies it from being an UT-tell. "I like my vote where it is" clearly signifies that randomness was replaced by suspicion, and Yos' argument basically arose because LML omitted this fact in #278 and then LML got a little weird when asked about it. I didn't pick up on this and I didn't think it strongly indicated LML-scum because there was no real discrepancy between LML's words and his actions, only weirdness under questioning.

Succinctly, the difference between LML and MafiaSSK's Tigris votes is this:
Why did LML vote Tigris? Because he rigged a dice roll to keep from voting himself in RVS.
Why did MafiaSSK vote Tigris? Because he was bandwagonning/random voting/suspicious/joking/making a point on theory, depending on who you ask to interpret the vote. MafiaSSK himself insisted it was legitimate suspicion, but it sure as hell didn't look that way.

You're right I didn't commit to an LML read. You are not right that I was "much ado about nothing where LML is concerned", I had him on my radar and my ISO reflects that. Please point out where my play was pro-LML (i.e. trying to help him out/trying to benefit from his lynch/trying in any way to push a scum agenda) or stop this nonsense.

------------

First impression of the undo wagon is that it doesn't seem strongly scum pushed based on my impression of participating players, but that the case is not very convincing. Undo has been mostly in the background for me and hasn't stood out in any way other than his early posting which I remember liking. I'll have to go back to reread his analysis now that he's done to get a proper feel for how genuine/artificial it is. In the mean time, my vote won't be going there.

As much as I sympathize with DGB, she's still scum.

More to follow.

[Yosarian2]

@KK

, what do you think of Glork's vote for LML that made it 8-8? Is that really the kind of play scum makes on a partner a few hours before deadline, when no-lynch is a more likely possibility?

Actually, I'm pretty sure I've seen scum-Glork do stuff like that before.

Scum Glork seems like a possibility to me here; it looks plausible to me that he spent most of the day trying to avoid a LML lynch, but when he saw that there was probably going to be an LML lynch (especially as the BooKitty wagon was losing steam going into the deadline, and there was no other wagon with enough support), he made sure to be on it.

[Glork]

Idk Yos, you seem to be putting a lot of faith into the WIFOM town credit grab. Occam's Razor suggests that the fairly-cheeky-but-incredibly-reliant-on-other-people-interpreting-correctly play isn't likely.

I still maintain that as scum I stay away from the thread/site and have the "I work weird retail hours" alibi to fall back on.

[Yosarian2]

Idk Yos, you seem to be putting a lot of faith into the WIFOM town credit grab. Occam's Razor suggests that the fairly-cheeky-but-incredibly-reliant-on-other-people-interpreting-correctly play isn't likely.

I still maintain that as scum I stay away from the thread/site and have the "I work weird retail hours" alibi to fall back on.

Eh. If you were scum, and you saw that one of your scum buddies was going to get lynched on day 1 no matter what you did, I would think you would make sure to be on the wagon before the end of the day, in order to dodge later voting analysis attempts.

And you would probably try to do so *just before* it became obvious to everyone else that your scumbuddy was going to get lynched.

To be clear, none of that proves you're scum; I could see you acting the same was as town. I'm just saying that it doesn't clear you either, like MBL was trying to imply.

[Yosarian2]

On an unrelated note, I'm starting to think that DGB might actually be scum. Which is damn depressing; I really, really didn't want to lynch her. But I don't get what she's doing today at all.

[Glork]

There wasn't anything to indicate that LML was going to be lynched regardless of what I said/did. Like what the actual fuck? Bookitty was still leading at that point and time was running out.

The amount of defending I did towards LML (I even refer to myself as "The Whitest Knight" because I was so certain he'd flip town that I thought I'd come under suspicion for white knighting him) means that bus-vote or not, I was going to be suspected. If I were scum, there's nothing to gain by bus-voting him while continuing to protest. Literally every other option available to me is a better alternative.

[Glork]

I feel like you've overestimated my WIFOM/cheekiness before and decided I was scum because of it. Pretty sure it was a normal game a couple of years ago?

Anyway, I agree that what happened with LML/me doesn't *clear* me, and I'm not comfortable with the degree that MBL had championed my cause, but I don't understand why you're spending time musing about the "possibility" of GlorkScum doing it unless you think that possibility is fairly significant or unless you're planting the seeds to turn on me later.

[DrippingGoofball]

ANALYSIS

THINGS I KNOW FOR SURE:

I am town.

THINGS I'D STAKE MY MAFIA LIFE ON:

MrBuddyLee is town.
Yosarian2 is town.
Some of the scumpals LML was bus'ing didn't enjoy LML's performance and decided to bus him right back to the death.

THINGS I'M PRETTY SURE ABOUT:

Chamber is town.
Cogito Ergo Sum is town.
Glork is town
I still consider that mathcam made a big mistake in his reaction when I pretended that ABR had a guilty on him.

THINGS I AM ADDING ON RE-READ:

GreenCrayons is likely town.
VitaminR is likely town.
Sotty7 is likely town
inHimshallibe is likely town (replacing Zorblag who replaced Natirasha, who replaced farside22).
(1) farside made two posts with only questions.
(2) Zorblag's post was apparently made before he read his role PM, and therefore cannot be trusted.
(3) Natirasha "reck's game was cool and I had a fun role, here I don't." Vanilla townie alert.
(4) InHim drops out, like in the good old days.

UNABLE TO READ OBJECTIVELY:

Albert B. Rampage > I'll say that I am

not

getting town vibes.

SHORTLIST OF THINGS THAT AREN'T SUPER TOWNIE:

CrashtextDummie > but not super-scummy, either.
Untrod Tripod > vig bait please
undo > I'm not convinced is scum.
Bookitty (replacing Seol) > pretty town upon iso.
Kublai Khan (replacing Tigris) > prob town upon iso.

SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM:

Porochaz > is wishy-washy but was uncharacteristically certain about LML-scum.
mathcam (replacing MafiaSSK) > believed that a cop was outed with a guilty on him. Might have been the scum's easy day 1 bus for a time.
SaveTheDragons > LML bus'ing games, although from iso'ing STD & PJ, STD is less scummy than PJ. I'd lynch PJ first. They are voting in tandem a lot. I wouldn't be shocked if both were scum.
Petroleumjelly > LML bus'ing games. PJ is BY FAR the scummiest player.

VOTE MOVEMENTS

Tigris/KK (6) -- LoudmouthLee, chamber, Glork, MafiaSSK/mathcam, MrBuddyLee, Untrod Tripod
MafiaSSK/mathcam (6) – Tigris/KK, Save the Dragons, petroleumjelly, Seol/Bookitty, Porochaz, Green Crayons

(1)There is one confscum on Tigris/KK, so the rest of the players on that wagon are more likely town. In fact there are 3 players on this wagon that are almost certainly town.
(2)There is no confscum on MafiaSSK/mathcam, and frankly other than Bookitty (maybe), the passengers smell of BO. Tigris/KK, STD, petroleumjelly, Porochaz, Green Crayons

In this votecount http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p5897974 LML votes STD. At this time the LML wagon is composed of DrippingGoofball, VitaminR, Albert B. Rampage. LML's STD vote was a sustained one that he argued with "conviction."

The Seol/Bookitty wagon grows while LML stagnates:

Sotty7, Shanba, Cogito Ergo Sum, chamber, Save the Dragons, Glork, farside/Natirasha/Zor/inHim

This Seol/Bookitty wagon is populated by my town reads minus STD.

LML's wagon fizzles and he moves his vote to UT following a fake analysis. PJ re-starts LML's wagon.

LML wrote:

Here's who I am leaning scum on:

UT, Mathcam, STD, Sotty

(

Here's who I have strong scum feelings for:

PJ

***PJ voted LML before LML voted PJ.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p5914516 >>>

here LML votes PJ and ends his post with "

KILL PJ

"

Next important wagons:

LoudmouthLee (2) -- Green Crayons, Yosarian2
Bookitty (9) -- Sotty7, Shanba, Cogito Ergo Sum, chamber, Untrod Tripod, Save the Dragons, petroleumjelly, mathcam, undo
petroleumjelly (5) -- Albert B. Rampage, VitaminR, LoudmouthLee, Bookitty, Glork

PJ retreated from LML onto Bookitty, this is the second time that PJ & STD vote in tandem.

DrippingGoofball (7) -- Untrod Tripod, Kublai Khan, Sotty7, Save the Dragons, Porochaz, CrashTextdummie, Albert B. Rampage
Albert B. Rampage (3) -- Glork, petroleumjelly, DrippingGoofball

Definitely two scums on my wagon, if not three - but more likely 2.

Since I'm town, there is very little incentive for scum to switch wagons. Why move from one town wagon to another (or a scum wagon that's grown so large, scum are compelled to bus), unless you think a town wagon is melting, and won't go through???

Let's see who was most reluctant to move from my wagon to undo's.

DrippingGoofball (7) --

Untrod Tripod

, Kublai Khan, Sotty7, Save the Dragons,

Porocha

z, CrashTextdummie, Albert B. Rampage
undo (8) -- MrBuddyLee, Glork, chamber, Cogito Ergo Sum, Yosarian2,

Porochaz

,

Untrod Tripod

, Bookitty

The undo wagon is SUPER TOWNIE. I'm not so sure about Porochaz and UT, but this wagon is full of the towniest townies that ever towned this game.

The only players that moved from my townie wagon, to undo's wagon are Porochaz and Untrod Tripod. The undo voters mostly arose from non-DGB voters.

Now with undo's wagon wavering, mine is re-awakened with some urgency by:

petroleumjelly, Green Crayons, Sotty7

Now undo makes a case against Glork, who has the following votes:

Glork (4) -- VitaminR, undo, Kublai Khan, Albert B. Rampage

I'm not sure what to make of this. ^^^

INDIVIDUALS

(this is a previous post with some modifications/addenda)

LML

(1) His first attacks are on Sotty and SSK/mathcam.
(2) Then he's attacked by VitaminR, and he mollifies VitaminR by attacking ABR and voting STD.
(3) Note: ABR didn't react to LML's vote like he reacted to me when I voted him.
(4) LML takes constant pot shots at ABR.
(5) The fact that LML tried to mollify VitaminR instead of getting into a X-bus with him is a sign that VitaminR is probably town. In fact he tried to mollify VitaminR repeatedly.
(6) LML argues mildly with Sotty, keeps vote on STD.
(7) GreenCrayon's attack on LML in #391 looks totally legit and does NOT smell like bus'ing. Secret tell here.

petroleumjelly:

(1) Suspected mega cross-bus'ing
(2) voted MafiaSSK/mathcam, LML, Bookitty, LML, DGB, Glork
(3) FOS MafiaSSK/mathcam, VitaminR, Glork, Bookitty, Glork

(4) PJ actually has gone from voting me, then ABR, then me??? How is this not scummy???

(5) PJ is trying to turn the tide AWAY from undo and onto me
(6)

"Honestly, I don't know. I do not have a good grasp on Save the Dragons' play. LoudmouthLee's reasons were weak, but that is consistent with Save the Dragons being of either alignment."

I think this points to PJ & STD being scum together.
(7) Metas me without looking at any town game. Not that I can be meta'd... but still. ZERO for honesty.

Save the Dragons:

(1) Suspected cross-bus'ing.
(2) voted UT, MafiaSSK/mathcam, Seol/Bookitty, undo, Zorblag, PJ, Bookitty, LML, PJ,

Porochaz:

(1) Suspected bus'ing.
(2) voted UT, MafiaSSK/mathcam, LML, DGB
(3) Reading Poro's iso, he's very nebulous and wishy-washy about everything except for an un-natural laser focus accuracy on LML. That does reek of bus'ing by a player in dire need of redeeming himself. Also mirrors PJ's evaluation of LML's excel sheet as nonsense.
(4) Moved off my wagon to undo's late in the game.

Kublai Khan:

(1) Suspected bus'ing.
KK wrote:I think LoudmouthLee is pretty scummy. petroleumjelly doesn't seem scummy. Just getting started on analyzing BooKitty. So, VOTE: LoudmouthLee for now.
This sounds like lazy bus'ing. KK didn't even "analyze" Bookitty at all.
KK on PAGE 4 already wrote:Scum: sotty7, LML, VitaminR, porochaz, Seol/Bookitty
(2) KK's #819 sounds too sure.
(3) Tigris' “As LML said, it is an old 'tell'” doesn't sound like something a buddy would say.

Sotty7:

(1) LML leaning scum on Sotty but not voting Sotty or FOS'ing Sotty
(2) votes Glork, Seol/Bookitty, DGB

Sotty7 wrote: "I would support a LML wagon outside my current Seol vote, mostly based on some "bad mojo" he's been exuding"

(3) Sotty7 supported PJ trying to turn the tide AWAY from undo and onto me with her vote
(4) When Sotty7 challenged LML early on, he took it in stride, he responds by re-inforcing his STD scumread. I wouldn't be
(5)

“I'm not buying the scum slip simply because the rest of that post sounded like frustrated town to me. My vote's not switching.”

MafiaSSK/mathcam:

(1) voted Bookity, FOS PJ. Antidote to all the bus'ing???
(2) LML was inconsistent here, he would FOS MafiaSSK/mathcam, not vote him.
(3) believed that I outed a cop with a guilty on him.

UntrodTripod:

(1)In post 842, Untrod Tripod wrote:unvote vote lml balls deep > smells like a coasting, trolling pot-shotting scum that KNOWS LML will flip scum.
(2) Moved off my wagon to undo's late in the game.
(3) Now this is HIGHLY subjective and contradicts points (1) and (2) but LML's fake analysis leading to UT smells of LML trying to deflect from MafiaSSK/mathcam's “VI” wagon onto a townie. I may be wrong but that's my feeling about it.

Green Crayons:

(1) Green Crayon supported PJ trying to turn the tide AWAY from undo and onto me with his vote.
(2) GC's attacks on LML are genuine.

undo

(1) wagon is very townie but that's a proxy measurement which is not hugely reliable.
(2) I like the measures of interactions with LML. It shows that he went back to read up on the scum. I may not agree with his vote on me or his vote on Glork, and while MBL's case was convincing I'm not convinced he's correct.

VitaminR:

(1) LML tried to placate him so prob town.

CrashTextDummy:

(1) “Not an optimal lynch, but not a terrible one either. “

Glork:

(1) “Holy shit, someone hammer. I'm not even a fan of this lynch but something NEEDS to happen.” NOT something a late bus'ing scum would say.

ABR:

(1) I cannot examine this player objectively.

THE NIGHTKILL

Not very informative since Shanba was keeping a low profile with his suspicions. Two theories: was chosen because unlikely to be watched or doc-protected, or to deflect suspicion from very proficient players staying alive too long. No conclusion.

[DrippingGoofball]

VOTE: petroleumjelly

[Save The Dragons]

I don't have time to post much at the moment, but...

@STD

, what do you think of mathcam?

I gave MafiaSSK a pretty clear townread for the fact that his wagon seemed to unnaturally build. The thought that an LML FOS of the slot while keeping his vote on Tigris recently crept into my mind as "maybe he's trying to keep pressure but not actually vote his partner." I'm not really sure if that's the case, but I have found most of the people who were on the wagon to lean more towards town, and the only stand out that I feel may not be town (PJ) was kind of the most innocent person on that wagon, since he was the first to chime in with the reasoning, and everyone else followed.

I feel like both MafiaSSK and mathcam could have fallen for the trap of "saying things that sound suspicious but in reality are not." For that reason, the wagon MafiaSSK, and the general nature of mathcam's posts I have considered the slot pro-town, but with that recent thought about LML not touching the wagon and with mathcam's recent posts about DGB, I want to reconsider that, so when I get a free moment I'll take a look at his ISO with a neutral mindset and see what I see.

[MrBuddyLee]

4 Good Reasons to Vote Glork

1. He hasn’t made one single case on Day 1

2. He contradicts himself severely

3. He defended LML since early on

4. The only case he made the whole game (the one against me) was dishonest and based on fallacious, sensationalist phrasing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=p ... yzzxM#t=21

[Glork]

PJ, do you think that ABR and DGB are scum together?

Did you think this at the time you moved your vote from DGB to ABR?

[MrBuddyLee]

@DGB

, I love your post and agree with an awful lot of it. I find it very sincere, and not in a "I'm scum and know all the answers" kind of way. If you're scum, I hate you. Same goes with Glork, same goes with Poro.

I disagree with you on Poro.. his three suspects after PBPA were LML, undo and cam, and all for what felt like honest reasons. Good, timely vote on LML that mattered.

Not thrilled with Poro's DGB and Glork suspicions D2, but unlike undo, Poro actually took the time to follow up on his D1 suspicions. ( I'd still like to see his thoughts on mathcam, but he analyzed undo and was honest about his conclusions.) I'll be really sad if Poro is scum, because his play is so much more enjoyable and sincere than in the last Oldy.

I feel like PJ isn't having fun, which is weird considering we caught scum D1. I think LML bused, but I'm not really willing to vote the #4/5 person on the LML-wagon today unless we have a drop-dead knock-out case.

So if I don't want to vote Poro, PJ or STD today, and if a bunch of us have this nagging feeling that undo could just as easily be stubborn, dumbass town as stubborn dumbass scum, what's the play?

[mathcam]

Gotta say, I got kind of a pro-town vibe from DGB's big post up there.

Glork's looking slightly more appealing.

So if I don't want to vote Poro, PJ or STD today, and if a bunch of us have this nagging feeling that undo could just as easily be stubborn, dumbass town as stubborn dumbass scum, what's the play?

Ummm, ABR? Seriously, though, why is my argument here being completely ignored?

[DrippingGoofball]

So if I don't want to vote Poro, PJ or STD today, and if a bunch of us have this nagging feeling that undo could just as easily be stubborn, dumbass town as stubborn dumbass scum, what's the play?

You should vote PJ anyway. The #4/5 person on the LML-wagon doesn't count as anything special since LML was moaning about being bus'ed.

The usually analytical PJ is spinning like a windmill in a hurricane today.

[DrippingGoofball]

Ummm, ABR?

Why?

[VitaminR]

DGB, you should make posts like Post 1436 more often.

[Untrod Tripod]

I'm done with scumreading dgb

[Glork]

UT, how do you feel about MBL? How has your VitR read changed (if at all) over the course of the day?

[Green Crayons]

UNVOTE: DGB

Don't know who to vote for. How disheartening.

[Kublai Khan]

UNVOTE: DGB

Don't know who to vote for. How disheartening.

Glork.