NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[chamber]

And then there was this post, where CES's scum list was basically Seol+the 3 most townie-looking people in the game at the time, which was just bizzare:

You've misinterpreted both of those posts from CES if you think he was talking about scum reads in either.

[Bookitty]

UNVOTE:

I don't have time for a reread right now. I will look at my notes when I get home, but for now:

VOTE: mathcam

[Yosarian2]

And then there was this post, where CES's scum list was basically Seol+the 3 most townie-looking people in the game at the time, which was just bizzare:

You've misinterpreted both of those posts from CES if you think he was talking about scum reads in either.

Those first two posts, I assumed he was saying they were town reads, in a fairly confusing way. The scum list I quoted there, though, looked really weird.

[VitaminR]

Yos, I don't get what's relevant about the fact that his town reads were worded confusingly. Do you think being confusing is scummy?

[Albert B. Rampage]

@chamber and VitaminR

What the hell are you two talking about???

Yosarian made an award-winning post, completely logical and I agree with everything he says. I'm very upset at chamber and VitaminR's ambuiguous replies.

[mathcam]

@mathcam: (shrug) I said "unobtrusive," not "wildly scummy," so it slots you in the "I don't know pile." Play however you want, it wasn't meant as a criticism, just my observation/reaction.

Sure, that's how I took it. No worries.

I can see how you could come away with what you did before that explanation, but his explanation makes it clear that his language conflated the LML-wagon with the bookitty-wagon which explains his convoluted sentence without there being two independent mistakes (mathcam suspicion relates to bookitty-wagon, CTD suspicion/the "bus" comment relates to the LML-wagon).

a) It's notable that

you

offered this conflation defense, not him. He just said he was tired and messed up. In any case, there's no arguing that he made a mistake, and to me it's semantics and/or irrelevant whether or not we count it as one mistake or two. The question is whether or not the gap between what he meant to say and what he actually said reveals something about ABR's status in the game. So my take on this is that...

b) It seems plausible to me that it's easier to get confused about arguments about who was bussing who or not when you're scum -- you forget who you're pretending was being bussed by someone who you're pretending you think is scum (or something like that). Also, that's a lot of conflating -- the LML and BooKitty topics were pretty dominant pieces of conversation at the time, and pretty different in nature. The difference in anti-mathcam argument "mathcam was bussing LML" and the anti-mathcam argument "mathcam is the scummiest on the BooKitty wagon" seems enormous to me.

I

think he was opportunistically taking advantage of the "LML slipped when he said bussing" argument to make an attack on me, an attack which no longer makes any sense when he shifts to the BooKitty wagon.

c) If that actually had been his initial intent, why would he even bother bringing up the BooKitty wagon? Why would the scummiest person on that be his top choice? Why not just "mathcam is scummiest." Or does he know BooKitty is town, and so being on her wagon is indicative of guilt? Hell, why did he even bother justifying his vote on me in response to MBL's question? He's never felt the need to justify his position before -- why do so now? Because LML's bussing "slip" was trendy enough that he thought it would get traction?

Are you serious? PJ and Undo had become the top compromise lynches and we have about four days give or take to find a lynch. If PJ got the votes off him it was likely Undo would be next. The focus needed to be shifted.

We've seen the speed with which wagons have been rising and falling recently. In my eyes, the undo wagon had stalled, with several people coming to his defence (or at least expressing their ambivalence) and PJ's, while gaining momentum, wasn't near the critical mass needed to merit a roleclaim.

Yos: I think you've made most of those points in that post before, and I feel like I've responded to the best of my ability. Of course, this is a fine state of affairs -- I don't think you were asking me to respond to anything, but if you were, I'd be happy to try to elaborate.

Overall, though, mathcam is posting a lot of stuff but I just don't see a lot of pro-town motivation here.

You and GC both! I'm not sure I have much in the way of a defense here, though I'd argue that it's heavily in scum's favor to vote for anyone but themselves. I think I've been pretty reserved with my vote. Pro-town motivation doesn't necessitate trying to cobble together arguments against people you're not sure about ("scum-hunting"). It can be as simple as finding the one person you think is scum, and trying to push that argument to it's logical conclusion. Of course, there's lots of WIFOM going on here (I could be scum trying not to ruffle any feathers), but I'd like you to ask yourself if there's anything that's genuinely advantageous to scum-Cam about the way I've played today.

---

In any case: Okay, I get it. I'm ready to give up on an ABR lynch, though I'm still baffled that this hasn't gotten any traction, relative to the essentially-nonexistent arguments against undo and PJ, which took up firestorms of votes almost instantaneously. The one recent argument that's held traction with me is Glork's recent trend of metaing himself. I think it's especially tempting as scum to make emphatic statements of the form "If I

were

scum, I'd have acted like ... " (and yes, I'm aware there's a mild form of such a sentence just a paragraph above), and Glork's 71, 72, 74 are souped up versions of this. In fact, 74 even gives me the vibe that was

exactly

what he was doing, intentionally setting himself up to be scummy and use that defense, and was angry that people weren't buying it. Still, UT's recent actions have placed him higher up, so...

Unvote: ABR, Vote: UT.

In fact, as a bonus point, LML/UT/ABR as a scumteam does not strike me as particularly unbelievable, either, and UT was on and off that LML-wagon even more than ABR was.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Both chamber and mathcam wanting a UT lynch now makes me think that UT is town. Mathcam/everyone else, what are your thoughts on Porochaz? He has received very little attention in this entire game.

[Untrod Tripod]

wow cam that's an astonishingly shitty vote

I mean ABR and DGB aren't even trying to come up with reasons for scumreading me, but that vote is just blowing my mind right now

vote mathcam

[VitaminR]

@chamber and VitaminR

What the hell are you two talking about???

Yosarian made an award-winning post, completely logical and I agree with everything he says. I'm very upset at chamber and VitaminR's ambuiguous replies.

What was ambiguous about my reply? I feel like Yos is trying too hard to make a case against CES out of very little, which worries me, because it could indicate an ulterior motive on Yos's part. I don't understand why he pulled out CES's town read comments, as if stating something confusingly is scummy.

[VitaminR]

Both chamber and mathcam wanting a UT lynch now makes me think that UT is town. Mathcam/everyone else, what are your thoughts on Porochaz? He has received very little attention in this entire game.

I kind of agree with this. Porochaz is just sort of coasting by and deserves more attention. (And I'm not really that excited about an ABR/mathcam/UT lynch, to be honest).

[Albert B. Rampage]

What do you mean CES is talking about his TOWN READS? He said SCUM TEAM. How is that a TOWN READ?

[chamber]

Both chamber and mathcam wanting a UT lynch now makes me think that UT is town. Mathcam/everyone else, what are your thoughts on Porochaz? He has received very little attention in this entire game.

I didn't say that I wanted a UT lynch. I'm fairly sure I don't actually. All I said was that it was first instinct to go to UT if both Undo and PJ are town. His votes on both those wagons were fairly questionable.

[chamber]

And then there was this post, where CES's scum list was basically Seol+the 3 most townie-looking people in the game at the time, which was just bizzare:

You've misinterpreted both of those posts from CES if you think he was talking about scum reads in either.

Those first two posts, I assumed he was saying they were town reads, in a fairly confusing way. The scum list I quoted there, though, looked really weird.

I don't think he was saying tigris was town. I think he was saying that pursing someone that's easy to read prematurely is silly because they'll make their alignment known with time.

[Save The Dragons]

So the truth is, I still want to lynch DGB. Doesn't look like that is happening.

Unvote

Attempting pragmatism, here are a few other candidates and how I feel about them. Sorry for the pain in the ass long post.

----

MATHCAM! Mathcam

mathcam

mathcam

mathcam

As far as MafiaSSK is concerned, I found his theory to be inaccurate but not necessarily anti-town. I'm not sure if I have anything specific about his play that strikes me as anti-town. I'll take a look.

587 states that he likes MafiaSSK's vote for CES, although he doesn't like all the reasons how he arrived at that conclusion. One of the reasons he did like was that MafiaSSK called CES out for his Seol obession.

His next paragraph presents reasoning for why Bookitty is suspicious, mostly for Seol's actions. If Seol is suspicious, how come CES's suspicions of him, possibly jokey at first, didn't become legitimate on their own?

I love his response to PJ's question though.

611 contains an FOS for undo. While I agree undo's choice of wording is a bit lolworthy, I think he's not wrong with his general analysis (that mathcam keeps his vote for a poor reason and eventually switches to the wagon at the time, even though he claims he cannot find a reason for his suspicion.)

I have a slightly higher than average scum read on her, and slightly higher than average expectation of information from her lynch. We also have no risk of hitting a power role with this lynch, but quite possibly a lynch of a scum making the only possible safe claim at this point. I find it unlikely that we'll find a better lynch opportunity today.

Mathcam has yet to really give a case on Bookitty, other than a holdover mention of how Seol was scummy.

I don't really find his statements about VT being a "safe" claim as suspicious, but even so throughout he gives no inkling as to why bookitty is a high scum read for him.

Rereading LML, I can't say that I've found anything unusually scummy from him. I will say that his posting style has always left me feeling a little uncomfortable, but I'm pretty sure that this has happened as both town and scum. I will note that out of my entire read, there was no instances in which I marked him down with a particularly pro-town vote. He'd probably be in my top-5-scummiest.

As far as this paragraph goes, in his previous post, he calls LML paranoid. In this paragraph, he calls him not scummy, but then lists him in his top 5.

In the end I'm not really sure what to think about the +1/-1 thing, other than I'm not sure what the purpose of him doing the +1/-1 thing is, like he said it's not really directly correlated with his voting pattern. Suspect prozac is absent from the list, ABR is possitive, Boo is possitive, LML is negative. To me it almost seems like he's doing it just to do it, which doesn't necesarrily mean it's anti-town, it just exists but maybe he's not really using it. But I don't really know. I didn't like the way PJ asked mathcame for post numbers (but I guess I was wrong about PJ). Then again I'm not a huge fan of 1083. I feel like he's explained how the +/- works to track gut reads but I'm not seeing how he's using it to influence his decisions at all.

1011 His case on porochaz is lacking. He makes a case on ABR, and explains some of his reads which are nice, but once again there's not really much of a case.

I'm not so sure that the posts suggest an oscillation of opinion towards DGB. It seems like you placed her in the "not sure" category at the beginning of the day. Your exchange with her does not imply you think she's suspicious for her actions, but I'm not sure if that means you're scum and she's town or if you're both scum or if you were just to exacerbated to post "FOS: DGB" or something.

VERDICT:

I'd be willing to lynch mathcam.

----

MBL! MBL

mbl

mbl

mbl

294 is the first real post of the game. I thought VitR was right: MBL posted commentary on the goings on so far, he expressed some suspicion of LML, but barely touched his Tigris vote.

While I admit I was the one who put MBL on the defensive in 786, I personally don't like how he spent the post dragging my name through the mud and then agreed with me. Maybe my tone could have been a bit less vicious, and in that regard it's not unreasonable for him to have that response.

I don't really like the KK wagon but I've said my peace on that. It's not apparent that MBL is voting KK because he thinks he's scum or for pressure (feel free to point out where I'm wrong).

MBL expresses suspicion of LML early in the game, and the day of the lynch explains his suspicions of LML.

1297 is very pretty. undo is only mentioned once. One of the reasons for the suspicion on undo is that he was not around, but being on V/LA doesn't excuse this. His question to undo (in the post where he votes undo) has an appeal to authority.

1328 is one I'm mistrustful of, but I think that might be simply because it's directed towards me. Even so, I thought some of the arguments in it were boldly taken out of context (which was why I was suprised when Sotty said it seemed good).

I'm not in love with his case against undo. I kind of feel the point about mathcam just escaping undo's scope is grasping at straws. Unless MBL thought undo and mathcam were scumpals, I'm not sure what that says about undo.

VERDICT:

I'd lynch MBL if I had to, but I'd rather see more from him.

----

tl;dr:

Vote: mathcam

Also in light of undo and PJ's claim a vote count would be nice, especially since I think my mathcam vote puts him close to danger.

[Untrod Tripod]

Both chamber and mathcam wanting a UT lynch now makes me think that UT is town. Mathcam/everyone else, what are your thoughts on Porochaz? He has received very little attention in this entire game.

I didn't say that I wanted a UT lynch. I'm fairly sure I don't actually. All I said was that it was first instinct to go to UT if both Undo and PJ are town. His votes on both those wagons were fairly questionable.

it's page fucking 63 on day 2 and we've faffed about entirely too much today. I want some blood.

[Albert B. Rampage]

chamber and VitaminR, explain why you think that CES saying scum team: DGB/Sotty/ABR/Green Crayons is his confusing way of giving a town read.

[chamber]

chamber and VitaminR, explain why you think that CES saying scum team: DGB/Sotty/ABR/Green Crayons is his confusing way of giving a town read.

Neither of us think that. We were both talking about the two quotes above that. I missread what yos had said.

[chamber]

Glork what do you currently think of UT?

[DrippingGoofball]

it's page fucking 63 on day 2 and we've faffed about entirely too much today. I want some blood.

If it's the same to you, can it be

your

blood?

[Yosarian2]

Yos, I don't get what's relevant about the fact that his town reads were worded confusingly. Do you think being confusing is scummy?

I was trying to analyze everything CES did. The relevant point, really, is that there is so little of it, so little of it looks town motivated, and the complete avoidance of even mentioning LML. I quoted those two posts primarily because that was nearly all the analysis he did before spending the rest of the day focused on bookitty.

[Yosarian2]

Yos: I think you've made most of those points in that post before, and I feel like I've responded to the best of my ability.

Probably. Like I said, I just was trying to re-read my main suspects.

Overall, though, mathcam is posting a lot of stuff but I just don't see a lot of pro-town motivation here.

You and GC both! I'm not sure I have much in the way of a defense here, though I'd argue that it's heavily in scum's favor to vote for anyone but themselves. I think I've been pretty reserved with my vote. Pro-town motivation doesn't necessitate trying to cobble together arguments against people you're not sure about ("scum-hunting"). It can be as simple as finding the one person you think is scum, and trying to push that argument to it's logical conclusion. Of course, there's lots of WIFOM going on here (I could be scum trying not to ruffle any feathers), but I'd like you to ask yourself if there's anything that's genuinely advantageous to scum-Cam about the way I've played today.

Basically, it's about motivation. The main motivations of a protown person is to 1. figure out everyone's alignment, 2. try to lynch people you think are scum and prevent lynches on people you think are town, and 3. try to avoid being lynched. In that order, hopefully.

Scum's motivations are 1. Avoid being lynched. 2. Try to look busy so you can avoid being lynched. 3. Either try to avoid your scumbuddies being lynched, or avoid looking connected to them if they are.

From my point of view, your day 2 posting looks a lot more like you have the second set of motivations. You don't seem to be trying very hard to either figure out anyone's alignment or to lynch anyone.

If you "found one person you thought was scum and tried to push that arguemnt to it's conclusion", that would be one thing, but it doesn't look like you're doing that either. You made an argument against ABR in your first post, then you didn't really attack anyone for your next 20 posts, then you vote ABR apparently because of the case you had made 20 posts ago, then you don't really mention him for your next 8 posts, then you make an attack against him.

If you had been "trying to push an argument on one person to it's conclusion" then I would consider that a type of scumhunting, but it doesn't really look like you were doing that either, except in a very pro forma kind of way.

Still, UT's recent actions have placed him higher up, so...

Unvote: ABR, Vote: UT.

In fact, as a bonus point, LML/UT/ABR as a scumteam does not strike me as particularly unbelievable, either, and UT was on and off that LML-wagon even more than ABR was.

And, honestly, you're doing it again. Why are you voting UT? Do you actually think he's scum? What has he done that you think is suspicious?

All of your voting and scumhunting just looks to me like you're going through the motions. I don't get the feeling that you really care that much about who's getting lynched today.

What makes that even worse is that the one time that you really did seem to care about who got lynched, the one time I got the impression you were really pushing a bandwagon, it was when you were pushing for BooKitty over LML on day 1.

[Yosarian2]

And then there was this post, where CES's scum list was basically Seol+the 3 most townie-looking people in the game at the time, which was just bizzare:

You've misinterpreted both of those posts from CES if you think he was talking about scum reads in either.

Those first two posts, I assumed he was saying they were town reads, in a fairly confusing way. The scum list I quoted there, though, looked really weird.

I don't think he was saying tigris was town. I think he was saying that pursing someone that's easy to read prematurely is silly because they'll make their alignment known with time.

Huh. Maybe. In that case CES's comments were even more unclear then I thought.

Anyway, it's not that important, other then as an example of how little CES has contributed.

[chamber]

I believe it was you who said that reading concise players was about reading them in context, not in isolation, did you do so when rereading CES?

[DrippingGoofball]

@ Yosarian

Can you please compare Untrod Tripod and CES in terms of quality and quantity of "contributing nothing?"

[Yosarian2]

@ Yosarian

Can you please compare Untrod Tripod and CES in terms of quality and quantity of "contributing nothing?"

Eh. UT did a lot of aggressive voting and basically bloodthirsty bandwagoning. He also helped push the LML wagon for a while. (And basically every other wagon that's happened all game). I'm not going to say that I have a strong read on him, but he certainly has done stuff.