NY175: Sycamore Scuffle

[Boonskiies]

Yeah, if there is only one scum left, we have three chances to hit scum.

[TheAdrienC]

If there's one scum, yes.

[Burning_TowN]

3. TheAdrienC
5. Wake88
6. Burning_TowN
7. shaddowez

At least one scum here, maybe two. I want to lynch AdrienC. I have wanted to all game. Please give me this! Please!

So it seems the scum is in this list.

Hum, let me think

B_E

[Burning_TowN]

Oh no that isn't right.

Yeah VOTE: Juls. No need to drag this out.

[Wake1]

...

...I doubt B_T's been questioned enough.

[Boonskiies]

3. TheAdrienC
5. Wake88
6. Burning_TowN
7. shaddowez

At least one scum here, maybe two. I want to lynch AdrienC. I have wanted to all game. Please give me this! Please!

So it seems the scum is in this list.

Hum, let me think

B_E

Well, if Juls is actually town, then yes. The rest of the scum team lies in those names.


@Wake - No we have not. they aren't posting much, and I don't think they are caught up on the thread.

[Wake1]

I think we can safely say there is only one Mafia left. 15:5:1 would be nuts.

Also, since I'm not an evil genius, you can all consider me confirmed Town.

*Is daring people to disagree.

[Boonskiies]

I think that leaves Burning/Juls/Shadow then.

[Boonskiies]

If we go ahead and try and lynch all 3, we can't lose actually...

[shaddowez]

I think that leaves Burning/Juls/Shadow then.

So you think Adrien is town?

[Juls]

I think that leaves Burning/Juls/Shadow then.

Do not leave Adrien out of that list.

[Wake1]

You forgot Adrien, Boonskittles.

I'm willing to consider you Town because of Aegor's huge crumbs. Last night I was literally walking through the woods and a bear tripped over one of them and fell into a pit of carnivorous prawns. He's probably right about Booney.

[shaddowez]

Unless I'm missing something (which is possible), the way I see it is either Wake and Adrien are both scum, or Adrien is most likely town.

Facts:

• Adrien has been claiming commuter most of the game
  
• Wake is claiming odd-night vig
  
• Wake is claiming he targeted Adrien N5
  
• There was only one kill N5, Mirhawk

Theories:

• Wake and Adrien are both scum. One of them used their kill to get rid of Mirhawk, and using the facts above Wake is able to claim he attempted to kill Adrien, who based on his commuter claim can explain him not dying.
  
• Adrien is town. If Adrien was the only scum left, Wake would have no reason to be lying. If Adrien's claim of commuter is true, he wouldn't have been able to both avoid Wake's kill and kill Mirhawk. Unless he's an RB or a JK, Adrien is town.

Since we're assuming only one scum left, the first scenario is unlikely. At this point, I am inclined to believe Adrien's claim, and therefore say he's town as per my second theory. I've also been leaning town for Wake the entire game, so I'm willing to believe he's telling the truth. I know that I'm town, which leaves Juls and B_T as the two strong unknowns. I don't like the silence and almost entirely naked vote from B_T at this point in the game, so

VOTE: Burning_Touch

[Juls]

Or he is a scum commuter. He had no motivation to claim when he did and he has been left alive the entire game. These two things by the self make me think he is scum. But there are also his extremely fake posts early in the game, his white knighting, his horrendously ugly "lynch all liars" jump on my wagon, his refusal to respond in detail to the very detailed case/ dialogue that I presented about/to him. None of these things strike me as town. I believe he used the fact that I "ignored" wake early as an opportunity to ignore me because he saw how others defended me and town-read me. I admit that I may be way too close to this opinion that he is scum to let it go but I really wish others would look at if objectively and see if tHere is merit.

[Toomai]

Votecount D6-2

TheAdrienC	L-3	1	Juls
Wake88	L-4	0	—
Burning_TowN	L-3	1	shaddowez
shaddowez	L-4	0	—
Boonskiies	L-4	0	—
BroodKingEXE	L-4	0	—
Juls	L-2	2	TheAdrienC, Burning_TowN

Not voting:

BroodKingEXE, Boonskiies, Wake88
With

7

alive it takes

4

to lynch.

Current deadline

23/08/2014 00:10 (EDT)
(expired on 2014-08-23 00:10:22)

[Juls]

And as much as I want to give it, wake does not get a free pass. Logic says there have been 2 kills per night. There was only one kill once we lost the SK. It certainly doesn't add up to odd-night vig.

[Juls]

If there is even a chance that we think AdrienC/Wake scum team we need to be lynching Adrien. If Adrien flips town you can clear wake.

[Juls]

Also look at mafia power roles compared to town power roles. We have quite a few. Does commuter make more sense as a town role or a scum role? To me it is scum because all the power we have. Adrien is immune to it.

[shaddowez]

Or he is a scum commuter. He had no motivation to claim when he did and he has been left alive the entire game. These two things by the self make me think he is scum. But there are also his extremely fake posts early in the game, his white knighting, his horrendously ugly "lynch all liars" jump on my wagon, his refusal to respond in detail to the very detailed case/ dialogue that I presented about/to him. None of these things strike me as town. I believe he used the fact that I "ignored" wake early as an opportunity to ignore me because he saw how others defended me and town-read me. I admit that I may be way too close to this opinion that he is scum to let it go but I really wish others would look at if objectively and see if tHere is merit.

I'm not disregarding your later points, but want to address the first couple you made. If you read through the post I made, I pointed out the fact that he can't be a scum commuter unless he's not the only scum. Unless I don't understand how commuter works, he could not have killed and been safe from a night kill. Your second point is completely backwards. You're assuming that scum would try to kill him for claiming to be commuter, and wondering why he's still alive, but he

can't

be night killed if he is a commuter...I'm really trying, but having a hard time following your logic on that one.

And as much as I want to give it, wake does not get a free pass. Logic says there have been 2 kills per night. There was only one kill once we lost the SK. It certainly doesn't add up to odd-night vig.

I actually agree with this, and have been trying to figure out how it adds up, but can only come up with WIFOM arguments for it. I'll give it my best go though:

N1 was when the Odd-Night Doc was killed, so there is a chance that the third kill was stopped by the doctor. I know you don't want to entertain this one, but for purposes of this discussion let's assume Adrien and Wake are telling the truth - that explains N5. The only night that makes no sense at all is N3. That would indicate that if Wake is telling the truth there is some sort of RB or JK out there. In order for this all to make sense, Adrien still has to be the commuter, which means again that if he's scum there's two left. The other, and becoming more plausible as I think about it, possibility is that Wake is scum, and has been setting up this ruse the entire time. There is absolutely nothing that has happened that cannot be explained by there not being an odd-night vig and Wake being scum.

If there is even a chance that we think AdrienC/Wake scum team we need to be lynching Adrien. If Adrien flips town you can clear wake.

I actually disagree...even if Adrien flips town, Wake could still be scum. Since Adrien has been claiming commuter, Wake could have killed Mirhawk and be claiming to have targeted Adrien as a vig. If Adrien is town and has been telling the truth, he'd have no way to know if that actually happened or not. The only way to be sure is if Adrien is town but was playing commuter as a gambit, in which case he would come out and say so.

[Juls]

I'm not disregarding your later points, but want to address the first couple you made. If you read through the post I made, I pointed out the fact that he can't be a scum commuter unless he's not the only scum. Unless I don't understand how commuter works, he could not have killed and been safe from a night kill. Your second point is completely backwards. You're assuming that scum would try to kill him for claiming to be commuter, and wondering why he's still alive, but he can't be night killed if he is a commuter...I'm really trying, but having a hard time following your logic on that one.

I did read your post but I must have missed that. The first poinT you make is valid. The second part though is wrong. He is completely susceptible to kills on even nights (if he is telling the truth).

As for the wake Thing, my brain has a hard Time ignoring the obvious for the less obvious.

I guess we need tO ask ourselves is 15v5v1 completely implausible? I am not sure enough about game balance to say either way.

Sorry for all the odd caps, in bed on ipad and too lazy to fix.

[Juls]

It just doesn't add up for us to have a commuter, two opposite night vigs, a even night tracker, a Fibonacci night cop ( which is basically a cop every night except 4), and a odd night doctor against two goons, a godfather, and a ? [plus sk]

[shaddowez]

I had a post written up, but my network decided it didn't want to play nice with mafiascum and I lost it...I'll try to put everything I had back in it.

The second part though is wrong. He is completely susceptible to kills on even nights (if he is telling the truth).

You're correct - for some reason I forgot it was an odd-night commuter, and was just working with it being commuter in general.

I guess we need tO ask ourselves is 15v5v1 completely implausible? I am not sure enough about game balance to say either way.

I'm not sure either - with a doc, a tracker, at least one vig, and a cop, I don't know if that's much worse than 16:4:1 is.

Also look at mafia power roles compared to town power roles. We have quite a few. Does commuter make more sense as a town role or a scum role? To me it is scum because all the power we have. Adrien is immune to it.

The weird thing about this is, assuming he's telling the truth about an odd-night commuter, the only thing it would have stopped was our cop (and even that would have been a non-substantial answer, as being immune doesn't make you conftown). The tracker and confirmed vig were both even-night. Not saying it can't be scum, it just doesn't make sense the way it's set up. Again, that's assuming he's telling the truth.

[BroodKingEXE]

Sorry guys, V/LAing for the next couple days last minute flight to home from vacation. Been preping all day.

[Wake1]

Large Normals may only have two unique, non-normal roles in them.

Fibonacci-Night Cop and Odd-Night Commuter makes two. If anyone else here is a unique role, we can end the game quickly, because someone would be lying.

[Juls]

Large Normals may only have two unique, non-normal roles in them.

Fibonacci-Night Cop and Odd-Night Commuter makes two. If anyone else here is a unique role, we can end the game quickly, because someone would be lying.

Good posting