NY175: Sycamore Scuffle

[Juls]

In fact we should probably just mass claim to see if something doesn't fit. I can start (although I think I already claimed). Vanilla Townie. I popcorn to burning_town

By the way, I tried to draw the night kill on whatever day it was we lynched HS. I came in crumbing cop in the hopes that I was right about Adrien and then he would get lynched and they would kill me. But I guess I failed cause I got sidetracked by HS.

[Burning_TowN]

We are also Vanilla Town.

Crumb to Wake, with an invitation to question us.

~tn5421

[TheAdrienC]

Juls has really got a hard on for getting rid if me no matter what the evidence days.

[TheAdrienC]

Says. Sorry, phone posting at work.

[Juls]

The evidence says that you are scum. I have admitted I might be too close to the case and asked others to take a closer look.

Care to explain why you refused and continue to refuse to address my case toward you?

[Boonskiies]

Eh, you guys are going against the possibility of there actually being an odd-night vig and odd-night commuter. It makes sense for everything that has happened this game. I'm starting to lean towards Shadow more than Juls and Burning Town, for reasons I'm not quite sure how to express publicly yet. But I will get on that.

[Juls]

Can you explain why you eliminate burning town?

[shaddowez]

Eh, you guys are going against the possibility of there actually being an odd-night vig and odd-night commuter. It makes sense for everything that has happened this game. I'm starting to lean towards Shadow more than Juls and Burning Town, for reasons I'm not quite sure how to express publicly yet. But I will get on that.

Actually I didn't, and based on this along with the fact that you suddenly aren't even considering Wake just because of his claim would make me suspect you if it weren't for Aegor's crumb. I'm actually going to provide a case for Wake's claim being a well-designed gambit. The biggest thing that invalidates this is having a RB/JK, but I think they would have claimed by now.

First off, this game has had a

ton

of roles, and none of them have been alternate night roles. Not saying that it can't be the way it's setup, there's just no precedent for it.

Wake's first mention of an odd-night vigilante was in Post #1029 on D2, after there had been 2 kills on N1 and the even-night vig was killed.

I'm guessing we have an Odd-Night Vigilante. If we do, and it's multiball, why only two deaths? That tells me something went awry for one, perhaps?

He also starts to set up the theory that it's multiball, and that something stopped one of the deaths. He continues to play up the odd-night vig theory throughout most of the rest of the game. If scum thought this was even a possibility, why leave him alive, especially on Nights 2 or 4 when he wouldn't have been getting a shot off?

So, who here doesn't think we're in multi-ball? I'm still of the mindset that there's an Odd-Night Town Vigilante out there, to complement the Even-Night Vig, and that two Scum factions murdered this Night. Who here will say that is unfeasible? I am curious.

Here, he's still trying to push for the odd-night vig and multiball, and isn't entertaining the idea of an SK for the second kill.

Also, I'd rather not have the good townsfolk forget my thoughts on the possibility of an Odd-Night Vigilante. Apparently if there is one, he or she didn't answer my prayers last night. What sort of cruel being does that? And let's not forget that there were two deaths Night 2, in spite of the Even-Night Vigilante dying the night before. If there is one, I don't quite understand these latest happenings. Oh well. Something to ponder later I guess.

Aeronaut, if Juls is mislynched, may I have your head tomorrow? I considered Aegor, but I don't think there's much there.

Still continuing to draw attention to the odd-night vig theory, along with the fact that there were two kills again.

Now, let's analyze the night kills. We have a confirmed SK with no night modifier, so we can assume that he's killed, or attempted to kill, every night. The scum that have died have also had no modifier, so we can also assume that scum have killed, or attempted to kill, every night.
N1 - We have two kills. There was a doctor who died N1, but they could have protected the same night. At the time of the kills, there were 20 active people (the only player that can't be counted was the lynch for the day). That means the chances of the doctor targeting the same person as the proposed third kill would be approximately 1/400.
N2 - We have two kills again. We know the EN-Vig is dead, so this confirms either multiball or SK. Town, not knowing the setup could believe either, but scum would know how many were on their team, and based on that would be able to more accurately assume (or outright know) which it was.
N3 - We have two kills again. At this point, the ON-Doctor is dead, which leads me to believe that the same two factions killed on N1 and N3, and that there was no third kill. There are two options as to what could have happened - same target, or RB/JK, but we're still looking at odds of about 1/350 for that to have happened.
N4 - We have two kills again. At the time, town could still have been considering multiball or SK, but SK is more likely.
D5 - Our SK is lynched. Wake claims that Cabd and Alina were his kills. We know he's not SK, so the two options are scum or ON-Vig.
N5 - We have one kill. With a confirmed SK that is now dead, this leaves either the ON-vig or the scum to have performed the kill.

Unless there is an RB/JK that has gotten extremely lucky on all three odd-nights (or doctor on N1), we should have had one more kill each night. I suppose targeting Adrien would count too, but I find it unlikely he was targeted multiple times. If Wake is scum, all of the numbers add up. Playing as not scum and claiming people as vig kills is all well and good, since real scum would never come out and say "No, we killed them!", and the SK is dead (not that he would have claimed either). As I mentioned in an earlier post, if Wake is scum and Adrien is not, it would give Wake more reason to believe Adrien's claim of ON-Commuter, and be able to use that as a defense of why there was only one kill N5. If there's an RB/JK out there that used their power on Wake, now would be the time to claim it. Otherwise,

VOTE: Wake

[Juls]

Ok shadow, your case is well laid out and I agree. But...have you met wake? Do you think he could gambit so wildly? I probably need to meta him. I mean all you say is reasonable and the logical side of me definitely thinks wake is full of shit. Let me research him some...

[shaddowez]

Ok shadow, your case is well laid out and I agree. But...have you met wake? Do you think he could gambit so wildly? I probably need to meta him. I mean all you say is reasonable and the logical side of me definitely thinks wake is full of shit. Let me research him some...

This is my first game with Wake, so I'm honestly not sure. Is it a huuuuuuge play? Absolutely. The question I'm trying to answer is does anything else make more sense, and at this point I can't say it does.

[Juls]

I hate you by the way for making me read through wakes games. It's a mess! So far he has replaced out every time he was mafia. Still looking for a game he posted beyond the first day as scum.

[Juls]

Well that was completely unhelpful. Only one mafia game to completion. Here it is but he didn't really do/say much. Sounds like the town stomped all over themselves.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=31540

[Boonskiies]

I actually feel that the last scum is some sort of PR scum. Like RB.

[Juls]

Yes I agree scum have to have more power than what's flipped.

[Juls]

I would have Vig'd Juls Night 3 or 5, based on certain behavioral patterns.

For now, VOTE: Juls. If it gets to L-2 too quickly, I'll unvote temporarily.

Can you explain the first part? What stopped you?

[shaddowez]

I actually feel that the last scum is some sort of PR scum. Like RB.

I don't disagree; however, unless it's Wake I don't think it's an RB.
Assume that Wake isn't scum, is telling the truth, and the last scum is an RB. Again, based on the size of the game, the probability of actually hitting a kill role, and the fact that we were missing a kill every odd night doesn't make sense. Now, had Wake not claimed two of the kills, I might believe that after he started talking about the ON-Vig so much the scum RB may have blocked him both for N3 and N5, but that's not the case.
In my scenario of Wake being scum, him being a PR or not doesn't impact how everything plays out. He could be any role whatsoever, as long as he's capable of a night kill.
Another option would be Adrien as a scum commuter without being night-specific, but as I explained in my other post, that theory doesn't work out either.

Proposed plan: Lynch Wake today. If he's town, lynch me tomorrow (unless a better suspect is found). I'll claim if need be, but won't fight a lynch. If he's scum and game isn't over, lynch Adrien (especially if there's no kill). Thoughts?

[Boonskiies]

If you plan on claiming now to help hit scum, why not just claim? You're bargaining system to me seems like you are trying to get one more night free of being lynched. If you're town, why would we lynch you tomorrow just because Wake flipped town.

[Juls]

I think we all need to claim today no matter who we lynch. I don't want any bs claims tomorrow because IF there happens to be 2 scum left, we are in lylo tomorrow.

[shaddowez]

My role isn't really going to change things one way or the other - I've got nothing to hide, and since the massclaim started (but stalled on Wake), I may as well. I'm a VT. I figured since I'm the one proposing the Wake lynch, if people sheep me and he flips town I would just throw myself into the plan since that's likely what would happen. I'm not going to vote myself or try to get lynched, but I don't want to make it look like I'm just trying to get Wake lynched with no repercussions either.

[Toomai]

Votecount D6-3

TheAdrienC	L-3	1	Juls
Wake88	L-3	1	shaddowez
Burning_TowN	L-4	0	—
shaddowez	L-4	0	—
Boonskiies	L-4	0	—
BroodKingEXE	L-4	0	—
Juls	L-2	2	TheAdrienC, Burning_TowN

Not voting:

BroodKingEXE, Boonskiies, Wake88
With

7

alive it takes

4

to lynch.

Activity

BroodKingEXE is V/LA until 15/08/2014.

Current deadline

23/08/2014 00:10 (EDT)
(expired on 2014-08-23 00:10:22)

[Boonskiies]

Meh, Burning town makes me nervous.

Shadow and Juls' votes don't seem scummy to me. Adrien and Juls have been at it since the beginning. BT's vote on Juls is suspicious to me. I'd be okay with a BT lynch today.

[Juls]

I think BT has lurked a lot and his and Adrien's hop on my wagon were the ugliest. I honestly wouldn't mind lynching any of Adrien, wake, shadow, or BT just to narrow the pool but I mainly keep talking myself into/out of scum reads on the four. Like wake bringing up that if we had another non-normal role claimed we could find scum. That's a townie thought. Shadow actually did some leg work and logically approached wake/Adrien. That seemed town. Adrien continues to just point and preaching to the crowd instead of building a case on anyone. And BT just lurks. So I think today I am at a place of wanting an Adrien lynch first and foremost, then a BT, then Wake, then shadow. But that could change again...

Tldr; I don't know

[Juls]

The one and only thing that doesn't make sense to me is that if Adrien was a scum-commuter then how did wake shoot/miss him AND a kill take place. That's the only thing holding me back a little on Adrien.

[shaddowez]

The one and only thing that doesn't make sense to me is that if Adrien was a scum-commuter then how did wake shoot/miss him AND a kill take place. That's the only thing holding me back a little on Adrien.

That was the premise of my argument that Adrien is town. The only thing I don't know is if commuter only applies to additional roles, but a standard mafia kill still works.

[Juls]

A Town PR must have stopped my kill attempt, because I selected Adrien. The remaining Scum killed Mirhawk.

Why do you say a "town Pr"?