Mini 452 NBA All-Stars Mafia-Game Over!

[Xdaamno]

FOS: No-Lynch

Looking reeeal scummy there.

Liking you less and less, joke stealer

[YogurtBandit]

FOS: No-Lynch

Looking reeeal scummy there.

Liking you less and less, joke stealer

I did say you said it on page 2

[xyzzy]

Okay, I'm assuming that we began with 3 mafia, which seems pretty standard.

3/4 chance that N-L is town. Therefore, there's a 3/4 chance that we're at 7 to 3.
1/4 of mafia, in which case it's 8 to 2.
If he's town, we have about a 40% chance of killing a mafioso.
If he's scum, we have a 25% chance.

If he's town and we mislynch today, then we're at LyLo.
If he's scum and we mislynch, then we still have one more chance before LyLo.
If he's town and we lynch scum, then we have one chance before LyLo.
If he's scum and we lynch scum, then we have three chances before we're at LyLo.
If we don't lynch and he's town, then we have one chance before LyLo.
If we don't lynch and he's scum, we have 2 chances before LyLo.

One thing we could consider would be to vote No Lynch every day, unless it's basically obvious that someone is scum. That nearly doubles our time, and we could still hold mock votes before night begins.

[Xdaamno]

ATALHE is a result I'd love to get for the sake :p

[Thok]

Official vote count

IH (2): (YogurtBandit, Xdaamno)
Xdaamno (2): (The Central Scrutinizer, Fletcher)
A Papaya (2): (IH, xyzzy)
mlaker (1): (Haschel Cedricson)
The Central Scrutinizer (1): (mlaker)
YogurtBandit (0):
Fletcher (0):
McStab (0):
xyzzy (0):
Haschel Cedricson (0):
Haut Boy (0):

Not Voting (4): (A Papaya, Haut Boy, McStab)

With 11 alive, it's 6 to lynch.

[Fletcher]

Okay, I'm assuming that we began with 3 mafia, which seems pretty standard.

3/4 chance that N-L is town. Therefore, there's a 3/4 chance that we're at 7 to 3.
1/4 of mafia, in which case it's 8 to 2.
If he's town, we have about a 40% chance of killing a mafioso.
If he's scum, we have a 25% chance.

If he's town and we mislynch today, then we're at LyLo.
If he's scum and we mislynch, then we still have one more chance before LyLo.
If he's town and we lynch scum, then we have one chance before LyLo.
If he's scum and we lynch scum, then we have three chances before we're at LyLo.
If we don't lynch and he's town, then we have one chance before LyLo.
If we don't lynch and he's scum, we have 2 chances before LyLo.

This is all fine and dandy... if we were robots who just randomly voted and no one had any special abilities.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

unvote, vote: YogurtBandit

I'm pretty sure about this one... just look at his posts in isolation. Says a lot without saying anything, pushes lynches without trying to appear to be pushing them... I'm comfortable with this vote.

[Xdaamno]

Okay, I'm assuming that we began with 3 mafia, which seems pretty standard.

3/4 chance that N-L is town. Therefore, there's a 3/4 chance that we're at 7 to 3.
1/4 of mafia, in which case it's 8 to 2.
If he's town, we have about a 40% chance of killing a mafioso.
If he's scum, we have a 25% chance.

If he's town and we mislynch today, then we're at LyLo.
If he's scum and we mislynch, then we still have one more chance before LyLo.
If he's town and we lynch scum, then we have one chance before LyLo.
If he's scum and we lynch scum, then we have three chances before we're at LyLo.
If we don't lynch and he's town, then we have one chance before LyLo.
If we don't lynch and he's scum, we have 2 chances before LyLo.

This is all fine and dandy... if we were robots who just randomly voted and no one had any special abilities.

Indeed, you missed out the bit where it mentioned that when you were copying and pasting from the wiki

Leaning towards agreeing with TCS about Yoghurt, though I'm not 100% sure. Would like to hear more, and if I see anything else notably scummy, I'll launch my analysis.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

FOS: Xdaamno

Noncommital... very. I think I might have caught two scum in the first three pages of being here.

[YogurtBandit]

unvote, vote: YogurtBandit

I'm pretty sure about this one... just look at his posts in isolation. Says a lot without saying anything, pushes lynches without trying to appear to be pushing them... I'm comfortable with this vote.

Can you give me an example of doing this?

[Xdaamno]

TCS, I was aware I was doing the exact same thing you described there, so I think, in defence of myself, I'll launch my analysis of anybody who stands out to me soon, Yoghurt first. Then you'll be able to gauge my feelings.

[Xdaamno]

Mmkay, I'm using the posts by user so I might miss a few things other players have said, but it shouldn't be too important.

Hello all! Hopefully the mystery can be solved so Everyone can watch the big game!

First post; obvious vibes. Possible newbie scum tell in the second sentence, but nothing decisive.

Im back all, Let me read over the posts, to see how I got 2 votes..

Second post. Ambigious but consistent with scum play.

RandomVote:IH

Nekka's gone, so I'll just take a guess here.

Fourth Post. Worth noting, but there isn't anything is particular. Could be useful later.

I did say it was random at the top. Just randomly voting here

Fifth Post. Strong scum vibes from the second sentence; he shouldn't need to state this so much; possible case of 'Mr. Nice Guy' scum play. Enough to warrant a vote already.

That is good logic, which means that the chance that Kobe's role is scum just went up 40%. Now to figure out who Kobe is...(or Who is Kobe)

Sixth. I'm not sure how seriously to take this, but it dosen't really look pro-town.

Meh, I was on vacation on Sunday and Monday(I did get on at night monday)
So I Just didnt comprhend the pages before Page 3.

Seventh. Didn't... comprehend? You read them but didn't understand them?

Yeh, Hopefully Bandwagon jumping can give us clues.

Ninth. Still nto sure if this is sarcastic. If not, it's ironically stating the obvious. Kinda looks like he's trying to say the right thing on purpose.

Perhaps we should just vote No Lynch, Because If N-L was town, and another townie is Lynched, than we're down two pepole. I'm willing to do it, Especially since I want to see N-l's role.

Thirteenth. No lynch seems bad play to me, but I guess ambigious.

Well, If we accidwently Lynch a Townie, and N-L turns up town ( Since he made a newb mistake, The chances are higher ) Thats two down. Which would be bad. If we No-Lynch, The worst that can happen is that we lose one townie, the best A "Opponent". Yes, if someone is obviously Mafia right now, Then that would be a good idea. Besides, Even if It goes into night with N-L as town, there is always the possibility of a RoleBlocker or Two. If you go back to Page 2, Post 28, by you, You Fos'ed No Lynch.

Fos: No Lynch

Fourteenth. Gah! I have to put some thought in...

This intruiges me: "Since he made a newb mistake, The chances are higher". Could be useful later, not sure how, but it seems important; his opinion on Nekka and any knowledge he may have.

His theory seems to ride on chance, such as roleblockers, Nekka being scum etc. Any scum are obviously more informed, so he may be making his argument on hidden knowledge. That, or he's cop - so I'm not ready to lynch yet.

Can you give me an example of doing this?

Sixteenth, waiting on answer.

[xyzzy]

Okay, I'm assuming that we began with 3 mafia, which seems pretty standard.

3/4 chance that N-L is town. Therefore, there's a 3/4 chance that we're at 7 to 3.
1/4 of mafia, in which case it's 8 to 2.
If he's town, we have about a 40% chance of killing a mafioso.
If he's scum, we have a 25% chance.

If he's town and we mislynch today, then we're at LyLo.
If he's scum and we mislynch, then we still have one more chance before LyLo.
If he's town and we lynch scum, then we have one chance before LyLo.
If he's scum and we lynch scum, then we have three chances before we're at LyLo.
If we don't lynch and he's town, then we have one chance before LyLo.
If we don't lynch and he's scum, we have 2 chances before LyLo.

This is all fine and dandy... if we were robots who just randomly voted and no one had any special abilities.

Well, the math loses points in usefulness, but meh. The statistics are mostly the same, unless we have a cop with a guilty or something similar.

[A Papaya]

@No Lynch:

It's a stupid idea. Because if we don't lynch anyone at all today, we're going to be in the same spot as we were, minus players from nightkills. It's lose-lose.

FOS: Everyone who voted No Lynch

[YogurtBandit]

@ Xdaanmo's last quote: I think you just answered the question.

[xyzzy]

@No Lynch:

It's a stupid idea. Because if we don't lynch anyone at all today, we're going to be in the same spot as we were, minus players from nightkills. It's lose-lose.

FOS: Everyone who voted No Lynch

It buys us time, which we've already lost.

[Fletcher]

I'm not adverse to the idea of no lynch. But I would definitely like things to play out some more.

Happy with my vote.

[Fletcher]

Oh yeah:

Mmkay, I'm using the posts by user so I might miss a few things other players have said, but it shouldn't be too important.

Hello all! Hopefully the mystery can be solved so Everyone can watch the big game!

First post; obvious vibes. Possible newbie scum tell in the second sentence, but nothing decisive.

Im back all, Let me read over the posts, to see how I got 2 votes..

Second post. Ambigious but consistent with scum play.

What? Can you elaborate?

[A Papaya]

What the hell? No Lynch buys us time? No it doesn't...scum will still NK. So we lose no matter what if we don't lynch...but if we lynch, we have an ok chance of success.

[Thok]

Haut Boy has requested replacement; I am hunting for one now.

[Xdaamno]

Oh yeah:

Mmkay, I'm using the posts by user so I might miss a few things other players have said, but it shouldn't be too important.

Hello all! Hopefully the mystery can be solved so Everyone can watch the big game!

First post; obvious vibes. Possible newbie scum tell in the second sentence, but nothing decisive.

Im back all, Let me read over the posts, to see how I got 2 votes..

Second post. Ambigious but consistent with scum play.

What? Can you elaborate?

I left it to be deducted, but sure, I'll elaborate.

The first point is the Out-Of-Character scum tell that I've seen occasionally, in:

Hopefully the mystery can be solved so Everyone can watch the big game

The textbook example of this is going 'Oh No!' whenever someone dies, when that's part of the gameplay anyway. Solving the 'mystery' is part of the gameplay, and stating it is a scum tell. IMO.

The second one is a possiblity of trying to make votes for him seem absurd, but that's consistent with town play too, hence ambigious.

[xyzzy]

The textbook example of this is going 'Oh No!' whenever someone dies, when that's part of the gameplay anyway. Solving the 'mystery' is part of the gameplay, and stating it is a scum tell. IMO.

Some players enjoy the game more in-character. I don't see what's scummy about that.

[Xdaamno]

Which is why I'm not pushing for a lynch. There's a few good tells in my own (And TCS's apparently) eyes, but I accept he's not

definatly

scum.

Still, I don't think it's appopriate to let the pressure off this early.

Also noticed some (consistent with) scum play in TCS; he states he's caught two scum in an authorative manner, and seems quite sure at this stage, which is strange.

Non-OMGUS.

[Haschel Cedricson]

@No Lynch:

It's a stupid idea. Because if we don't lynch anyone at all today, we're going to be in the same spot as we were, minus players from nightkills. It's lose-lose.

FOS: Everyone who voted No Lynch

Right. I just everything that's gone down since I got back from Wisconsin.

I agree with A Papaya above. Our odds of getting a mafia tonight if we lynch someone is 1/11. Our odds if we don't lynch tonight is 0%, plus we get a dead townsperson. On other sites I've noticed that people who vote No Lynch on the first day are more likely than not to be scum, and I am always wary when an experienced player votes No Lynch.

Now, it has been brought up that No Lynch will get us more time. This is silly. It makes No Lynch sound like something other than a bad plan, when in actuality, No Lynch puts us at the mercy of doctors or roleblockers, neither of which are definitely in the game.

Unless I missed something, the three people praising No Lynch at some point are Yogurt, xyzzy, and Fletcher. I want to place a

minor FOS: YogurtBandit

for suggesting it in the first place, a

major FOS: xyzzy

for advocating a plan of not lynching every night, which would undoubtedly kill off too many townspeople before we got a confirmed Mafia.

Lastly, I am going to

Vote: Fletcher

. I am tenetively sure that Nekka_Lucifer was pro-town. In Fletcher's post 150, I think he's trying to steer us into believing that Nekka-Lucifer was scum. This in itself is not enough to merit a vote, but I noticed that Fletcher has stated that he would "be fine with a no-lynch", and as an experienced player, he should know better. I also noted that he never actually voted No Lynch; I think that he's attempting to get others on the No Lynch bus without getting on it himself. Finally, he brings up the fact that he has had a long leave of absence from Mafia several times, and I think this may be to provide an excuse for sub-optimal play under the guise of rust.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Oh, the set-up for this game made specific mention about how Shaq is a cop in real life. This may mean that there is no cop in the game (he's been killed already), so voting No-Lynch and waiting for the cop to save us is even more of a horrible idea.