Mini 455 - Mafia in Theoville - Game Over who won?

[Adel]

Adel, you seem just a little overeager to vote ChaosOmega for that, but I'm assuming it was just a pressure vote?

It was a hasty pressure vote- I didn't check his activity until I saw the post from the Mod mentioning that he was going to check it. I thought it was a no-brainer and I knew that Erotomachia had just taken a vote off of him. I wasn't expecting our mod to be that assertive in sending a prod, and felt a pressure vote would be a good thing not knowing he probably hadn't been to the site since about his last post three days ago. When he comes back he will still have two votes on a at least one player (me!) trying to bully him into posting more. I stand by my vote.

and a fistfull of FOSs: (roughly in order of worst to least bad)
Adel for the completely convoluted me + nanook scenario,

Which is worth considering. There is a big contradiction between Nanook being clever enough to pick up on your claim, and the sloppy way he reacted to it. I was searching for a simple explanation for it, and came up with that. It didn't make since for him to out you if he was town, and it didn't make sense for him to out you if only he was mafia. It only made sense for him to "out" you as cop if you are both mafia. And it still does make sense to a degree, but I am not confident enough in my theory due to my inexperience (I've never seen a day 2, keep in mind) to buy it unless a couple experienced players start to agree with it.

AND for still not mentioning my supposed scum tell even when asked to repeatedly,

I thought that horse was dead. I find it interesting that you pick up on this while ignoring the four (or five?) or so other players that have done the same thing.

AND for thinking voting someone who is not checking the site will make them post,

It should make Chaos Omege more likely to post if he is under pressure when he does get back to the site.

AND for saying she thinks that the mafia has a godfather this early for no reason

A hunch based upon the numbers of townies, and while I haven't read alot of games it seems to me that Godfather's are fairly common and totally screw up the utility of cop investigations, which was the context of my statement

AND for assuming that me as a scum cop would not provide a true innocent result.

If I understood that comment I would reply to it. Please rephrase. BTW, I hope you had a good flight, and I will totally understand if you are lagged and need a couple of days to respond to all of this.

...

I respect Guardian's FoS, and I think it would be really great if the other players would try to respond to his points as fully as I have tried to.

[Guardian]

Nanos referred to nanosauromo; he unfailingly continues to pursue you, his random vote iirc, even when there is good reason not to imo.

[Streeflo]

Adel, you seem just a little overeager to vote ChaosOmega for that, but I'm assuming it was just a pressure vote?

It was a hasty pressure vote- I didn't check his activity until I saw the post from the Mod mentioning that he was going to check it. I thought it was a no-brainer and I knew that Erotomachia had just taken a vote off of him. I wasn't expecting our mod to be that assertive in sending a prod, and felt a pressure vote would be a good thing not knowing he probably hadn't been to the site since about his last post three days ago. When he comes back he will still have two votes on a at least one player (me!) trying to bully him into posting more. I stand by my vote.

Alright, I just wanted to make sure.

Also Guardian, I think with 3 mafia it would be safe to assume there's a Godfather.
The theorem I go by in minis is: There's always a Godfather.

[Guardian]

BTW, I hope you had a good flight, and I will totally understand if you are lagged and need a couple of days to respond to all of this.

...

I respect Guardian's FoS, and I think it would be really great if the other players would try to respond to his points as fully as I have tried to.

Adel, thanks for that first part, I really appreciate when people like you try and be civil even when we are playing a game in which the object is for each faction to kill the other(s). I had a pretty good flight, kinda empty so I was able to lay down across four seats and try to sleep, though I did not succeed. Thanks again for asking!

I probably don't need a few days; I definitely need a good night's sleep though .

I also appreciate your second point as I think lengthy discussion and responses and etc. are good for

the game

town .

[theopor_COD]

I wasn't expecting our mod to be that assertive in sending a prod.

Hehe I've got to try and keep up with the speed of things for the sake of you guys.

[NanookTheWolf]

Nanos referred to nanosauromo; he unfailingly continues to pursue you, his random vote iirc, even when there is good reason not to imo.

I knew being in a game with him would throw me off at some point. Bah!

[ChaosOmega]

Alright, I'm here, will post my thoughts after I read over all of this.

[Adel]

I still find it funny how he assumed the game started in Night, although in the rules clearly say Day Start.

He said it was because he was confused- most of his other games started with a night move, and he assumed that this one did as well. Which doesn't disprove my unlikely Guardian+NtW scum pairing, since my theory depends upon them exchanging P.M.'s to set up the fake claim as if it were a Night 0. Our Mod simply stated that he didn't explicitly ban P.M's.
Look at the time stamp on your Role P.M. and calculate the difference between when the mod sent it to you and when the first post was made. That would give the mafia about a day to come up with a clever plan. Would that be enough time? I suppose that Guardian with only about 3 months on this board probably isn't experienced enough to have that plan sitting on the shelf, but NtW registered at this forum in 2004, and has 2,400 game posts. Meme has just under 7000 game posts, & registered in 2002, just as a point of reference.
I think that the fakeclaim role would be the easier one to play, and playing the person clever enough to spot the breadcrumbs but clumsy enough to out the "cop" would be much harder. So I find it believable that an experienced player came up with this tactic sometime ago and just left it in his toolbox for the right time. This is a closed game with strict deadlines which increases the possibility of a mislynch, and full of newbies. Note that only Erotomachia, MeMe and NanookTheWolf are the only players in this game to register before March of this year. Meme would be a great nominator for a scummy for best roleclaim or best mafia player.

How many of you other newbies even knew what breadcrumbing was before this game? I didn't. If none of you did either (or none save one, since the other scum is probably a newbie) how is that Guardian did with his 166 game posts worth of experience?

I'm just saying that the more I look into this little theory of mine the more possible it seems.

To sum up my theory:
1. Nanook devised the plan some time ago, PM'd Guardian to explain what breadcrumbing was and that Nanook would out him.
2. Nanook choose this game because the deadlines, closed format, number of newbies, and Meme as a whitness comprise the perfect environment to try it out.
3. Everyone believing that Guardian is a cop would get him + 1 scum buddy through to the endgame easily once they drive the bandwagon that lynches the third member on day 1 or 2.
4. My theory explains why Nanook would out Guardian as cop. The other offered theory is that Nanook was that clumsy despite 2,400 game posts. Nanook as mafia without Guardian doesn't make much sense (without resorting to WIFOM) and no one seems to believe that.

So far the only person that has agreed with me registered on May 28 of this year, so while I feel a little better since at least one person doesn't think I'm bat-shit crazy just for mentioning the possibility, I would feel better to have more confirmation.


So lets take a poll: Is my theory that a Guardian+NanooktheWolf scum-pairing possible?

a) No! It is clearly impossible.
b) Barely, but it is so unlikely that it probably isn't worth considering
c) Yes, but I'm fairly sure that we'll come up with a better scum tell on someone else before deadline.
d) Yes, + I am so convinced that when deadline comes, these is a good chance my vote will be on Nanook.

If everyone could respond to my poll by just posting a single letter, I would really appreciate it. Even if I am crazy, I did put a lot of time into this.

[ChaosOmega]

Well, first,

unvote

.

Right now, the person looking most suspicious to me is YogurtBandit. For all the posts he's made, not many of them have been useful. It looks like he's trying to seem town by posting a lot.

And as for the whole Guardian-Nanook thing, I'm not sure what to make of it yet. My first thought on it is that they're both town, though.

vote: YogurtBandit

[Streeflo]

I knew what breadcrumbing was when I started playing my second game. This is my 5th game. I joined March 31st. I don't find it crazy that Guardian would know what breadcrumbing is also.

As to your poll, I'm somewhere between b and c, so I'll just go with B. It'll take more to convince me this was all just a clever plan.

Like I said before, I think Nanook is careless town (sorry if this is insulting XD), and am not getting any vibe from Guardian.

[Nanosauromo]

I'm going with D in Adel's poll.

My vote's still on Nanook, for the record.

[YagamiLight]

I knew what breadcrumbing was my first game. I joined the 29th of April, almost a month after Gaurdian, so I don't find it odd that Gaurdian would know since he's had a month more than me. I think I would go with b for your poll.

[Adel]

Guardian, MeMe, Erotomachia, and ChaosOmega: are all of you sure that YB should be at -2 to lynch with 11 days left to deadline?

[ChaosOmega]

He's at -3 to lynch.

[Adel]

oh,

7

to lynch. My mistake.

[Guardian]

Two things:

Firstly

, I should be in bed now, but I am not. That will be remedied immediately after this post.

Secondly

, being objective as possible, your scenario still seems ludicrous to me. Nanook having planned this exact scenario, and then PM ing me when the mod said that all that he did was not specifically disallow night PM roles to PM pregame, and then Nanook PMing me in less than an day and me getting the PM and agreeing to it while I was on vacation in Spain, and me being confident enough and clever enough to breadcrumb in such a way that Nanook could easily find it, and Nanook being scum but acting so perfectly as he is doing right now.... I really, really, don't buy it.

It is possible, just like me getting a 1000$ check in the mail tomorrow is possible...

I see one of the only upsides of Nanook outing me as us getting him as a very likely townie in the process. Your theory seems to be grasping at straws... but maybe, and this is a big maybe, this is you just trying to reason everything through in a way that makes sense to you.... Do you at least see why I think you coming up with this is scummy?

Fyi, I learned what breadcrumbing was by reading lots of games (maybe two or three instance of breadcrumbing came up in 20-30 games) and in one in particular the cop breadcrumbed and that was crucial to the town winning... Or at least it came up near the endgame, I am not 100% certain the town won. Anyways, I thought it was a good strategy and I figured I would try it. Your whole scenario seems... crazy to me. About the only town like thing I draw from your scenario is that you aren't calling for me, the claimed cop, to be lynched, to test your theory....

Yeah, that's me picking option A.

[MeMe]

This is exactly why I disagree with MeMe that townies have inherent townness, as dogs have inherent dogness...

I didn't say they have inherent townness -- I said they needn't worry about appearing town. Being middle-of-the-road is my preference so that I'm not obviously

anything

-- I don't

want

to be "cleared." That way, I'm a less attractive night kill target and the doctor probably won't be tempted to protect me. It's a good strategy that keeps me alive without wasting our resources -- I might get investigated, but that's cool, as I likely won't have been killed and the cop can use that knowledge rather than having wasted an investigation on someone who died overnight. Get the picture?

Also, asking about a post restriction in a mini normal?? Adel I understood, but you know better than that - you run the queue for heaven's sake!

You know, Guardian -- sometimes strategy is subtle. Asking about a post restriction isn't the same thing as thinking it's probable...but hearing the reply to that suggestion could've been interesting before you went and, basically, told Nekka-Lucifer not to consider it.

Seriously. When you read my posts, try to keep in mind that I'm an intelligent human being who understands this game -- see if looking at things that way helps you follow what I'm doing.

Also, Guardian, if NanookTheWolf is town, he has just as much right to be irritated with you as you do with him. You going out of your way to say "I think he's town because he wouldn't have done that" just paints a target on his back if he

is

. See, telling everyone "hey -- I probably won't be willing to lynch so and so because I think they're town" means that scum won't want that person around. They prefer to leave people alive who might be lynched (which goes back to my first point)...so vocalizing belief in others isn't what town should be doing at this point -- save that for endgame.

Town are looking for scum. If you think you've identified town -- great, but keep a lid on it unless they're about to be lynched.

[Erotomachia]

I'd say probably (c).

For the record, I may have joined last year, but I'm hardly experienced. I wasn't very familiar with breadcrumbing.

I'll post more when I get home this evening.

[DogMom]

Re: Guardian / Nanook: OK, I see why Nanook outed Guardian...sorta. I personally would've been more inclined to hope that nobody else saw it, especially since some of 'em were quite subtle.

Un-FoS both of 'em. I can't see Nanook-Scum outing the cop and drawing doc protection to him, and I really can't see Guardian-scum posting hints right from the gitgo.
However, now I'm irritated at both of them: Nanook for outing our possible-cop, (no, he's not confirmed and I won't 100% believe him until he is) and Guardian for essentially saying "hey, everybody, NANOOK IS TOWN! HEY SCUM! GOT A BIG OL' NK TARGET FOR YA! NO NEED TO THANK ME!"
So at both of you.

(And, on preview, I see I'm saying the same thing MeMe just did. Heh.)

Looking at YB's posts...Wow. 21 posts, and not much content. (Hellooooooo pot, I'm kettle, nicetameetcha. Workin' on it.) Also, FTR, I am not at all fond of "hey, I've missed a page or 2, somebody tell me what's going on". While I do understand the temptation (I mean, come on, y'all are seriously posty - I had 2 pages to catch up on since 5pm yesterday), reading the thread for yourownself and making your OWN conclusions is a much better idea.

Re: MeMe. She doesn't have that many posts, and many of them are metagaming, but...still. When she does post "contentful" posts, they are actually QUITE contenty. Would've preferred some more explanation re: her vote on YB, to be honest. Her "case" seems a bit thin.
Voting someone for saying "voting without explanation is a scumtell"?
However, since YB has rather been avoiding her request (expressed twice now, AFAICT) to actually PROVIDE EXAMPLES of that, it's looking like she has a good point!

Hm. YagamiLight is an interesting one. He says a lot...but most of it is essentially "everyone's equally scummy" or "He could be scum, he could be town". Or it's speculation on the game-setup. Not sure what to make of YL. In the spirit of YL's posts: He could be scum trying to post enough to make it look like he's not lurking, but not really posting any game-analysis, so as to not drop any scumtells. On the other paw, he could be town.

ChaosOmega: not posted a lot, but he has posted game-analysis yesterday. Would like to hear more from him. Ditto Nanosauromo.

Adel: been over that, I think - saying "you're suspicious but I'm not saying why" is rather a scumtell in my opinion. Saying "it's nothing

now

but it might be later so I won't tell you because then you won't do it" is rather formulating an opinion and waiting for someone to walk into it. I don't like it. Especially with this line re: Nanook's vote on Guardian:

But it really bothers me that he is voting for you for no good given reason, and my non-explained vote gives him cover for it. He is doing exactly the same thing I did, but when he does it it seems like a scummy b.s. move to me.

Heh.
Anyway, glad to see you gave it up.

N-L: No idea. Mainly because I am really having a problem reading & understanding his posts. Sorry, N-L.

Streeflo: Says he couldn't possibly have any suspicions on Day 1. Huh? I would

hope

he'd manage to form suspicions by the end of Day 1. Did you mean "so

early

on Day 1" or "on Page 1" or did you honestly mean you can't have suspicions throughout all of Day 1? He doesn't like the Nanook thing either, obviously.

Gargh. I'm having a real problem getting a handle on this game at all.
I don't like YogurtBandit's asking for someone else to tell him what's going on, nor do I like him avoiding MeMe's question. I'm also rather suspicious of YagamiLight; his posts could be indicating a scum who's trying to insinuate suspicion at several people without being too offensive. See above. Subject to change, void where prohibited, mileage may vary.

[Guardian]

This is exactly why I disagree with MeMe that townies have inherent townness, as dogs have inherent dogness...

I didn't say they have inherent townness -- I said they needn't worry about appearing town. Being middle-of-the-road is my preference so that I'm not obviously

anything

-- I don't

want

to be "cleared." That way, I'm a less attractive night kill target and the doctor probably won't be tempted to protect me. It's a good strategy that keeps me alive without wasting our resources -- I might get investigated, but that's cool, as I likely won't have been killed and the cop can use that knowledge rather than having wasted an investigation on someone who died overnight. Get the picture?

OK, I get that, and that is a legitimate way to play the game. As town, I tend to try and show my alignment through lots of posting, though I should probably consider toning that down, as it

is

less useful when you get a power role .

Also, asking about a post restriction in a mini normal?? Adel I understood, but you know better than that - you run the queue for heaven's sake!

You know, Guardian -- sometimes strategy is subtle. Asking about a post restriction isn't the same thing as thinking it's probable...but hearing the reply to that suggestion could've been interesting before you went and, basically, told Nekka-Lucifer not to consider it.

Seriously. When you read my posts, try to keep in mind that I'm an intelligent human being who understands this game -- see if looking at things that way helps you follow what I'm doing.

I considered that for a second, but I then decided to call you out on it because I could envision MeMe-scum asking Nekka that to try to confuse him and paint him as scum off of the reply. Thinking it over, I should have waited to call you out until he replied. I will consider waiting until people respond to you before calling you out in the future for questions or comments that I consider scummy. .

Also, Guardian, if NanookTheWolf is town, he has just as much right to be irritated with you as you do with him. You going out of your way to say "I think he's town because he wouldn't have done that" just paints a target on his back if he

is

. See, telling everyone "hey -- I probably won't be willing to lynch so and so because I think they're town" means that scum won't want that person around. They prefer to leave people alive who might be lynched (which goes back to my first point)...so vocalizing belief in others isn't what town should be doing at this point -- save that for endgame.

Town are looking for scum. If you think you've identified town -- great, but keep a lid on it unless they're about to be lynched.

The thing about Nanook is that his actions are so scummy yet I see him as town, and I felt I had to articulate that. In my longish post, notice that I mostly just drew attention to those most scummy to me, and didn't mention the other players that much... Really, the only reason I think Nanook is town is because he outed me, and even that is slightly WIFOM logic. After that, he could be seen as very scummy...

An interesting thing that I note is that DogMom also chastised me about this, and then said that she couldn't see Nanook-scum or Guardian-scum .

[Guardian]

After a good night's sleep, I will now address Adel's counterpoints, as promised...

and a fistfull of FOSs: (roughly in order of worst to least bad)
Adel for the completely convoluted me + nanook scenario,

Which is worth considering. There is a big contradiction between Nanook being clever enough to pick up on your claim, and the sloppy way he reacted to it. I was searching for a simple explanation for it, and came up with that. It didn't make since for him to out you if he was town, and it didn't make sense for him to out you if only he was mafia. It only made sense for him to "out" you as cop if you are both mafia. And it still does make sense to a degree, but I am not confident enough in my theory due to my inexperience (I've never seen a day 2, keep in mind) to buy it unless a couple experienced players start to agree with it.

I think I've addressed this.

AND for still not mentioning my supposed scum tell even when asked to repeatedly,

I thought that horse was dead. I find it interesting that you pick up on this while ignoring the four (or five?) or so other players that have done the same thing.

I didn't pick up on what you thought my scumtell was until Streeflo mentioned it! Where exactly did you tell us what it was? There have been maybe one or two players that acted similarly, imo, and yours was the most prolonged case.

AND for thinking voting someone who is not checking the site will make them post,

It should make Chaos Omege more likely to post if he is under pressure when he does get back to the site.

People who haven't checked the site in a few days will post when they get back, period. Whether there is a vote on them or not... Your vote appeared and appears to me like an easy vote on a lurker.

AND for saying she thinks that the mafia has a godfather this early for no reason

A hunch based upon the numbers of townies, and while I haven't read alot of games it seems to me that Godfather's are fairly common and totally screw up the utility of cop investigations, which was the context of my statement

Ok, a godfather being in the game is not so far fetched... This is more of a null point; I disagree that we should assume it but you thinking there is one isn't necessarily scummy... Though you could be scum and

know for sure

that there is a godfather in the game, and be bringing it up so it seems like you helped out.

AND for assuming that me as a scum cop would not provide a true innocent result.

If I understood that comment I would reply to it. Please rephrase.

Ok, you (and other people, to be fair...) have used this same line of logic: "Guardian may be a cop, but I will not trust that he is until he provides us with a confirmed investigation result." What exactly do you want here? Me to investigate someone, say they are town, and for us to lynch them and check it? If all you want is an innocent result and them to say, yeah I'm innocent, that is also horrible for town for reasons MeMe outlined, and is not really confirmed in any way. Or will you only be satisfied should I be so lucky as to hit scum?

Either way, a scum fake claiming cop can do this so easily! He could point out one of his partners and lead a successful bus to get confirmed, he could reveal that one of the scummier townies is actually townie... The mafia in this game (barring millers or a very doubtful SK) have

complete knowledge

of everyone's cop-shown alignment!

That is why you wanting an investigation result does very little for me in terms of thinking you have good reason to be suspicious of me.

I respect Guardian's FoS, and I think it would be really great if the other players would try to respond to his points as fully as I have tried to.

:goodposting:

If I had two votes one would more than likely be on Adel, but YB still seems like a better candidate at present .

[DogMom]

An interesting thing that I note is that DogMom also chastised me about this, and then said that she couldn't see Nanook-scum or Guardian-scum .

Sorry - I wasn't clear. I

meant

that I couldn't see you two as scumbuddies, doing this as a concerted / coordinated effort.

Jury's still out on which one of you I think is scummier. I'm thinking Nanook, but only because I'm inclined to believe your claim...

FOR NOW

.
But YB has a lot of 'splainin to do, so I'm going to set aside the "Guardian / Nanook" thing for now.

[Adel]

Does anyone else have a vote for my Poll?

I didn't pick up on what you thought my scumtell was until Streeflo mentioned it! Where exactly did you tell us what it was?

I was focusing on making a mountain out of a molehill, expecting scum to overstate a case for someone else in an attempt to start a bandwagon. You seemed to be the most guilty of it. Announcing my vote without explaining it was a tactic designed to encourage you to continue overstating a case, and hopefully get defensive about it.

If I don't get a couple more c or d votes I'll drop the entire thing. I thought it was a big stretch at the beginning, so I tried to disprove it by every means I could think of. Here is a funny fact: google "adel breadcrumb site:mafiascum.net" and it turns out that the word "breadcrumb" was used by pablito in a thread in the forums on the very same page I posted on, before the game started. So I should've known what breadcrumb meant. Also, Guardian posts on the next page of that same thread, so I have proof that he was active in a thread where "breadcrumb" was used. I think I am going to vote "b" on my poll now. I am still interested in what other players think of my idea though.

[Adel]

If I had two votes one would more than likely be on Adel, but YB still seems like a better candidate at present .

Maybe you can have two votes Here is another crazy idea I just thought of: In addition to or regular vote in the regular format we also post

VigKill: Player ZZZZZ

and

un:Vigkill

. Based on the games I've read, 50-75% of these games have a vig, but they usually don't do much good, killing townies or not killing at all.

I think this idea is a win-win. We get more information on voting and the relationships between players for later analysis even if there isn't a vig. If there is a vig, and if he follows the vote, it will be nearly as good as the town having two lynches a day or the mafia only being able to kill every other night. It will totally skew the odds in a pro-town direction.

The vigkill vote could come in a conditional form, like I vote for nanook, if nanook is proved town then I vigkill vote chaos omega, but if he is proved scum I vigkill vote guardian.

I think this idea is gets a warmer reception than my last big idea

[NanookTheWolf]

An interesting thing that I note is that DogMom also chastised me about this, and then said that she couldn't see Nanook-scum or Guardian-scum .

Sorry - I wasn't clear. I

meant

that I couldn't see you two as scumbuddies, doing this as a concerted / coordinated effort.

Jury's still out on which one of you I think is scummier. I'm thinking Nanook, but only because I'm inclined to believe your claim...

FOR NOW

.
But YB has a lot of 'splainin to do, so I'm going to set aside the "Guardian / Nanook" thing for now.

So you believe that either Guardian or I are scum? Do you think it be possible that we're both town?