Mini 455 - Mafia in Theoville - Game Over who won?

[Adel]

Nekka-Lucifer

0- hasn't been posting due to new PS3
1- "If he was mafia, he wouldn't agree (Guardian) because if he dies, he loses... Is that an honest sacrifice he wishes to make... Also, if something comes up on his NK (If there is one) then I have a suspicion... "
2- Guardian+Nannok scum pair is unlikely because it would be a crap tactic. Lynch Nanook and the scum-pair would fail. I think.

Summery
Votes: none. nothing added. no content other than some NK permutations which are difficult to decipher. Has 86 total game posts on mafiascum, and makes 5.6 on average a day, and has been very active in his other threads since this game opened. His posts in other games are easy to read and understand. He may really have a posting restriction, or...

[Adel]

Nanosauromo

0- random vote on Nanook
1- reaffirms vote because Nanook 's vote followed Guardian's crap logic
2- defends Streetflo, without giving reasons, against Nanook and Guardian
3- calls Nanook scum
4- doesn't buy nanook's theory that guardian is a cop breadcrumbing. thinks it may be a ploy
5- votes "D" in my poll, reaffirms vote on nanook

Summary

[Adel]

Streeflo

0- Votes YB for lurking
1- unvotes YB for posting good content (he posted a random vote) votes Eroto for "no reason"
2-defends self to guardian by calling previous posts jokes
3- asks guardian to give examples of the legitimate reasons to be suspicious of streeflo's unvote
4- defends self to guardian by calling both page 1 posts random, and accuses guardian of overthinking, questions YB's motivation for unvoting his random on CO since -5 to lynch isn't dangerous. Unvotes Eroto, w/o giving reasons.
5- calls nanook scum for outing guardian, and acting like he didn't know that it was a day start. votes: nanook
6- doesn't buy nanook being an idiot as a valid reason for nanook's play. doesn't like adel's theory, agree's with adel that nanook's argument is WIFOM
7- accepts nanook claim that adel's quotation was accurate.
8- can't read Neeka-writing. wants to hear adel's reasons for initially voting guardian. neutral on guardian's cop claim, doesn't like group trying to guess the set-up
9- states that he missed #68 where adel gave reason for initially voting guardian. notes that CO hasn't posted anything on mafiascum for 48 hours. thinks adel may be overeager to vote CO
10- states that breadcrumbing is common, but scum can do it too, admits nanook could be town since Mafia would not have outed the COP, unvotes nanook, still bothered by nanook thinking the game was a night start.
11- accepts adel's stated reason for voting CO, tells guardian that there is a good chance of having a godfather in mini's, defending adel.
12- knew what breadcrumbing was, votes "B" on poll, considers nanook probable town but careless, and guardian unknown.
13- states that he didn't understand the case against YB prior to YB cop claim, thinks adel's new theory is crap.
14- asks guardian why he voted for YB if he thought YB was going to make a cop claim
15- defends "willing to die for town" by YB to guardian as not necessarily a scumtell. thinks that Yb reactions are more genuine than guardian's, but guardian did breadcrumb (in his favor) and is more experienced.
16- NRC

Summery

[Adel]

Summery for Nanosauromo

[Adel]

^some kind of weird cut & past error

Summery for Nanosauromo
vote on Nanook... defends Streetflo, attacks Guardian and Nanook. doesn't give many reasons for actions or opinions, low content.

Summary for Streeflo
Votes YB -> Eroto -> nanook -> unvote... defends self against guardian often in the beginning, questions YB, attacks nanook, defends adel against guardian. didn't understand the case against YB. great signal:noise, lots of original opinions.

[Adel]

YagamiLight
0-random on guardian
1-unvote
2- asks nanook to give reasons why he thought streeflo is scum
3-NRC
4-agrees with previously offered idea that Mafia would not out cop. suggests testing cop would require lynching townie cleared by cop (

guardian

did you think I wrote this post? that would explain a couple of things)
5- concludes 3 by saying guardian could or could not be scum
6- an hour later states to adel that guardian probably is a cop, and is considering nanook as scum, offers WIFOM for why nanook would out cop. thinks setup is similar to C9
7- doesn't see doc breadcrumbs
8- thinks adel's CO vote was hasty.
9- knew what breadcrumbing was from game 1. votes "b" in poll

Summery
votes guardian -> unvote... he posts often at regular intervals. when I was reading through Dogmom's posts I thought her reasons for suspecting YagamiLight were crap. now I don't. very little content, places very little on record, says nothing that draws attention. attacks no one, defends no one. like a CIA field agent, you just don't notice him because he is so normal. does a total lack of scumtells = scum?

[Guardian]

Holy macaroni! Adel, This is going to be a real bear to read! You indeed do care about the game, and mucho props for that. I love your honesty in how you did some of my pbpa and then said that it was too hard to do objectively and that you would get back to it later . From reskimming them, there is definitely evidence of your bias that I will analyze, but I am getting the strong vibe that you are trying to do them as objectively as possible. If I get a town/neutral vibe from reading your biases... Well, then good for you .

Again... wow. Will you marry me Ms. Activity? We could be beautiful together!

[Nekka-Lucifer]

Ok, just here to say that I've gone past the 'Oh wow, a new console, I must pay attention to it 24/7' and will now be on the computer again...

Just saying I'll be on... I'll read it over in school (3 pages WOW)

[YagamiLight]

Sorry for not being able to get on today until now, and making it so long, but lots to go through.

@Adel: About your new idea...

Maybe you can have two votes Here is another crazy idea I just thought of: In addition to or regular vote in the regular format we also post VigKill: Player ZZZZZ and un:Vigkill. Based on the games I've read, 50-75% of these games have a vig, but they usually don't do much good, killing townies or not killing at all.

I think this idea is a win-win. We get more information on voting and the relationships between players for later analysis even if there isn't a vig. If there is a vig, and if he follows the vote, it will be nearly as good as the town having two lynches a day or the mafia only being able to kill every other night. It will totally skew the odds in a pro-town direction.

The vigkill vote could come in a conditional form, like I vote for nanook, if nanook is proved town then I vigkill vote chaos omega, but if he is proved scum I vigkill vote guardian.

I think this idea is gets a warmer reception than my last big idea

The thing is a vig should be able to tell who everyone thinks should be lynched already based on their posts, so it wouldn't change much as the vig still would decide on his own, like you said in your post to Guardian when he dismissed it. Also a mafia roleblocker, in most games they target a person to roleblock, so they would have to know who the vig is. Personally I find you very pro-town because you keep suggesting ideas like this and keep us thinking, regardless of what I think of them. Though I would like to know your answer to this...

Adel, your last two posts have been town like. I was going to mention that the first one was good when I responded to it, but I forgot to. The only bad thing about it is that you called my reasons OMGUSy, when I really have put some thought into them; earlier you said you respected my FOS, now you are calling it OMGUSy? What happened that made my reasons get bad?

Also, you thing about not noticing me, I get that in RL too people say they never notice me come or go unless I make sure they do.

@ChaosOmega: ... Nothing much to say here except that you should post more, though I probably should too.

@DogMom: Like Guardian I would also like you to answer Nanook's questions...

So you believe that either Guardian or I are scum? Do you think it be possible that we're both town?

@Erotomachia: Hasn't really said much to comment on, but hey Eroto, I mentioned oyur name at least .

@Guardian: You probably shouldn't have mentioned the YB being cop thing, because know the mafia has two possible cop NK's unless one of you is scum. Also whether we have two docs or not wouldn't matter because they wouldn't know who the other was voting for and could protect the same cop. Also you say he claimed when he never had, just offered the probability at the time. Also seeing Adel's theories as scummy just seems wrong to me because it seems like he is just trying to help get thoughts flowing. Here...

And now the fun starts... I thought there was a possibility that YB was going to claim cop back when he suggested that there are both two docs and two cops.

If you thought he was gonna claim cop, why would you vote for him?

Good question, I thought someone might bring it up. I had two reasons:
Firstly, I was not sure if he was going to claim it, or was actually just thinking about claiming it and testing it with the two cop two doc thing. I actually wanted to get a wagon on him, because in other games when he was wagoned he let his alignment slip, and if he claimed anything but cop I would have been almost sure that he was a mafia thinking about fake claiming cop but then deciding not to.
Secondly, even though he has claimed cop, I am not sure that I buy his cop claim.

To be honest, his was not the most convincing or direct claim I have ever seen, and like I said (and maybe this is a bad read on my part, as I have not had it tested yet) I always feel that someone is scummy if they say that they are completely willing to get lynched or killed for the good of the cause - especially if that person is a power role. I think town players should always say that they are a bad lynch, as it is, again in my opinion, almost always better for the town to give up on lynching a scummy townie in favor of trying to find scum.

Adel, keep the pbpa's coming. Fair warning, I may later go back and pick them for Adel scum tells, but as I said, I think the more townies post the more obvious it becomes that they are townie... And the more scum post, the more likely it becomes that they will slip up. So yeah, at first glance they seem like very decent pbpa, and definitely keep them going! One thing I would request of you, is that after putting all of that effort into doing a pbpa, that you put a bit more detailed summary for any of the players who you find particularly scummy

I emphasized the important thing, because he never actually claimed, just looked like he was thinking about it. Also, he was willing to die because if he got everyone thinking you were scummy, but was lynched instead, then you would probably be next.

@MeMe: For you I was wondering why you voted N-L.

@NanookTheWolf: Really all I can say is you look very pro-town to me after outing Guardian even if it wasn't a good thing, because like was said many times already, scum would probably save him for night.

@Nanosauromo: Just as DogMom said about you and CO you should both post more.

@Nekka-Lucifer: Again, proabaly should post more.

@Streeflo: Brings up a lot of questions that I like. good content.

@YogurtBandit: Last but not least, seems the most cop like and pro-town between him and Guardian... just ggut feeling really. Also about what you said about 2 docs

YB's claim brings this to light. For example, say we decide that any potential doc will target me tonight, and I will investigate YB, and he will investigate me. That means that if YB is town he is likely dead tonight, because the scum will know that he is not protected. I would get an almost useless investigation, and a cop would be dead. If YB is mafia, he and his buddies can try and influence the vote and get him doc protected instead so that they can kill me.

Hah! Im not investigating you! Im investigating someone else, some one I think is Scummy.I do think you are, but I also think you are Cop, So I'll save that one for later.
I guess I am Dead tonight. However, If I get the doc on my side you're going to accuse me of being scum so I guess Im definetly dead UNLESS there are two docs.

Even if there are two docs, it is still likely only one of you is protected, because they wouldn't know who's protecting who unless at least one claims and says his target.

Based on all this my current LoS from most scummy to least is:
Adel
NanookTheWolf
YogurtBandit
Streeflo
Guardian
Erotomachia
MeMe
ChaosOmega, Nanosauromo, Nekka-Lucifer
DogMom


Well, that about covers my current thoughts , I know I do the thing were I say two opposites, because I think about all possibilities, and begin second guessing, though as more context comes I'll be doing that less... I think anyways.

[Adel]

Though I would like to know your answer to this...

Adel, your last two posts have been town like. I was going to mention that the first one was good when I responded to it, but I forgot to. The only bad thing about it is that you called my reasons OMGUSy, when I really have put some thought into them; earlier you said you respected my FOS, now you are calling it OMGUSy? What happened that made my reasons get bad?

Also, you thing about not noticing me, I get that in RL too people say they never notice me come or go unless I make sure they do.

That not being noticed thing could be developed into an awesome advantage. My aunt is a PI, and she is like that, and has a stupidly nice home in San Francisco over-looking downtown and the bay bridge.

... anyways, the FoS was well written had valid points that I needed to respond to. So I did. His response to my response was #145 where he:
1. maintains that he doesn't like my scum theory
2. concedes that he didn't notice that I had explained why I voted for him
3. says that my vote on CO is bogus even though

It was a hasty pressure vote- I didn't check his activity until I saw the post from the Mod mentioning that he was going to check it. I thought it was a no-brainer and I knew that Erotomachia had just taken a vote off of him. I wasn't expecting our mod to be that assertive in sending a prod, and felt a pressure vote would be a good thing not knowing he probably hadn't been to the site since about his last post three days ago. When he comes back he will still have two votes on a at least one player (me!) trying to bully him into posting more. I stand by my vote.

4. concedes that there may be a godfather, but gives a WIFOM argument for why I would've mentioned the possibility.
5. attributes to me an argument that I didn't make (now I think he had me confused with YagamiLight and post #83)

My reaction at the time was that: #1 Amounts to OMGUS: I posted a theory he doesn't like so that makes me scum. #2 was settled, #3 I didn't even consider valid enough to respond to, which may have been a mistake, #4 was moot, and #5 didn't seem to be an issue- since I didn't understand what his point was I doubted that anyone else would either.

I felt his FoS was settled. He could try to press any of those 5 points, but wouldn't get anywhere with them.

My next post was me backing away from pressing the G+Ntw scumpair, and then I wrote my vigkill post, and he responded with #151 and "Adel, voting for you is starting to look win-win." based upon the 5 points of the FoS and the vigkill theory, and his #154 "you even present an explanation of why it is good to lurk" to which

It got you to respond immediately didn't it? I don't have experience playing to back this up, but from reading games, scum squirm when targeted, whereas townies explain why their actions are founded and look for who the real scum might be. That last post reeks of the former and has nothing of the latter; you even present an explanation of why it is good to lurk... which it isn't...

I am an active and confident player, you aren't going to intimidate me. I was pointing out that your style could intimidate other players. And it might.
I put a lot of effort into this thread, and the more work I put into it the more words you type painting me as scum for my efforts. As the target of my wild theory it made sense for you to be defensive, but when I make a post regard a scheme that I think would be pro-town and ask for comment, you dismiss it and add my attempt to your already OMGUSy list of my faults. Go ahead and mis-characterize me some more, but evaluate the vigkill scheme on its own merits and please drop the sarcasm so everyone else can have a clearer understanding of your argument.

So I thought that all that was left of his FoS list by that point was the OMGUS #1, his other points were so destroyed in my head I thought they were to everyone else including him. The "respectable FoS" became the "OMGUSy list". I really didn't like the tone he was taking with me, and I didn't do as good a job of translating by opinion into objective words. If I could do an edit I would write "discredited" in place of "OMGUSy".

[Guardian]

While being the closest to being lynched:

At Day 3 it could be a LyLo Sitiuation

If we Lynch the real Cop today

, I can tell you Guardian is Scum.

Im willing to die/be lynched to prove Guardian is not the Cop.

You all are probably going to think Im kidding, but Im not.

YL, if that's not a claim I'm not sure what is... YB himself said later that he was going to claim later... But for all intensive purposes he claimed in that post. I see your logic about him being dead and that showing that I am scum and that's why he was eager to die... but as cop, you'd think that he would rather have me lynched today if he were suspicious of me rather than have himself, the real cop, die, to "prove" that I am scum.

One thing that struck me when quoting it... YB, why would we think you were kidding?

Also a mafia roleblocker, in most games they target a person to roleblock, so they would have to know who the vig is.

OH, that is likely what Adel was confused about, in terms of me not mentioning a mafia roleblocker. I think we can know one thing for sure: Adel is not a mafia roleblocker in this game .

YL, though you did contribute with that post, I feel I need to

FnoS

(fingernail of suspicion... <3 YB ) for two things:
1)Saying that I outed John, when he made it obvious that he "is" a cop.
2)Listing your complete suspicions from least to most scummy. I was chastised for this earlier, and I'd think you'd have read that and thought better of making the same mistake that I made.

Adel, I will attempt to respond to you more fully tomorrow if you desire such a response. Discredited would have been a much better word to use, because I could then have said why I didn't think they were discredited/conceded that they were. Calling them OMGUSy seemed... OMGUSy xD.

I also noted that you didn't say that you wouldn't marry me. Are you indeed female/am I reading too much into your name and avatar?

[Adel]

Meme: what do you do when some random dude asks you to marry him in the middle of a game? Ignore him? Claim you are married? Oh yeah...

Sorry Guardian, I play for the wrong team, thanks for the offer though.

[Guardian]

</3

unvote vote: Adel

seems appropriate. you lied and you broke my heart.





















lol, I had a little fun with that... going to bed... putting my vote back where it was... well... actually being off YB seems like a better place to be at this point. I will reconsider after I reread the thread.

unvote

[DogMom]

@ Adel: B.

Nah, I just don't believe it. Nanook+Guardian just doesn't work for me. There are just so many ways that scum can fly under the radar and be far more subtle about guiding lynches, etc. I've seen it in other games here, and in other games off-site.
I knew about breadcrumbing long before I signed up for this site, and I even used it to breadcrumb "doc" in my first game. Same kind of breadcrumbing, actually.
I think that Guardian genuinely breadcrumbed he was the cop, and that Nanook outed him without thinking of all the possible consequences. That's it. I don't think they're scumbuddies who planned this out ahead of time.

[DogMom]

An interesting thing that I note is that DogMom also chastised me about this, and then said that she couldn't see Nanook-scum or Guardian-scum .

Sorry - I wasn't clear. I

meant

that I couldn't see you two as scumbuddies, doing this as a concerted / coordinated effort.

Jury's still out on which one of you I think is scummier. I'm thinking Nanook, but only because I'm inclined to believe your claim...

FOR NOW

.
But YB has a lot of 'splainin to do, so I'm going to set aside the "Guardian / Nanook" thing for now.

So you believe that either Guardian or I are scum? Do you think it be possible that we're both town?

Oh, absolutely. I think that there's a possibility that neither of you are scum, or that one of you is. I think the posssibility of

both

of you being scum is remote.
I'm not really getting "scum vibes" from either of you, to be honest. "Oops vibes", maybe, but not scumvibes.
Getting a lot more from YogurtBandit right now, frankly.

[DogMom]

I still dont think Guardian is Cop. He must be scum. He's claiming cop so early and he gets away with it and now the Doc is protecting him?(Assuming there is one) Its seems like a way to keep the doc from protecting town. If the doc protects the scum, All Guardian needs to know is who the doc is, then the doc gets Nk'ed, Then the real Cop the next night!! If we lynch town two in a row, and two nks in a row, its oh... 5 to 3. At Day 3 it could be a LyLo Sitiuation If we Lynch the real Cop today, I can tell you Guardian is Scum. Im willing to die/be lynched to prove Guardian is not the Cop. You all are probably going to think Im kidding, but Im not. Nanook claims cop for Guardian, Then Guardian is suddenly cop with full doc protection. I feel bad for the doc right now, because they will be gone by the time the Second Twilight comes around. And its all because Guardian is going to lead you all off course.

Unvote , Vote: Guardian

Y'know...this looks a reaaaaally whole lot like a Cop claim.
YogurtBandit, if you were intending to subtly hint that you're the only cop in the game, it didn't work. Just sayin.

On the other paw, if you're not claiming here, what exactly ARE you saying other than "I don't believe Guardian"? Why do you not believe him?

[DogMom]

First of all each player is an individual, and makes the own choices. As a group we can tell each power role what to do all we want, and they'll still make their own decision.

Annnnd then we'd lynch them as soon as we figured out who they were for not "following orders". (It happens. I've seen it happen, more often than not.) Not seeing how that would be beneficial to them.

And your logic for how the mafia would react to the group putting their minds together to assist the (possible) vig in making a good decision strikes me as a scummy response: using crap logic to dismiss a pro:town plan.

But directing protown roles is

not

a protown plan. Directing a Vig has good points and bad ones. I personally don't believe it's protown. I've seen it work

for

town and

against

town in games.
It's rarely resulted in a vig of a scum, interestingly. It lets the scum know who's being targeted, so they can shift THEIR NK to a different person, if the Vig-order is for a Townie.
Directing any OTHER protown role is inherently BAD, and not protown at ALL.
What are the benefits you're seeing that will override the problems? The only "benefit" I've ever seen is that it makes the Vig-kill a more "open" one, with more dialog and accountability. But you've said above that they should be able to pick who they'll Vig, regardless of what the town says, so how does that make them accountable? Plus, if we don't know WHO the Vig is, it removes accountability until we DO get a reveal on them.

The mafia, in trying to predict the actions of the autonomous individuals playing our power roles will always run into a recursive logic error (WIFOM) so they will never be able to confidently predict who a P.R. will target.

Exactly, which is why TELLING THEM AHEAD OF TIME WHO THE P.R. IS TARGETING is a

bad idea!

I don't get this - you're arguing both sides here and trying to use the REASON it's a bad idea as a reason in favor of your idea.

Once again, though the logical fallacy of over-simplification, you are overstating your case. That you didn't mention the possibility of there being a mafia roleblocker, the biggest hole in my plan, suggests that:

??? I don't think I've ever seen a RB in a 3-scum game. Never even thought that'd be a possibility, to be honest.
The fact that you've been touting this "let's direct the Power Roles Night Actions" scheme so hard, followed so RAPIDLY by "and here's why none of our direction will mean a thing" (saying "we can direct them but they can choose not to" and bringing up the possibility of a roleblocker) is really...odd. I'm wondering, now, if you're trying to set the stage for a scum RoleClaim, and setting up the perfect "out" for them.
"Oh, I'm the doc, and I

tried

to protect NK1 but I must've been blocked."
"Hey, I'm the Vig, I know y'all voted for me to Vig Scum1 but I thought Townie3 looked scummier".

[DogMom]

Looks like I was the only player DogMom did not mention in her player-by-player analysis!

I'm not really sure who to vote for anymore. Adel and Guardian are going constantly back and forth...I think it may even be likely that they're both town and that the true mafia members are just lying low.

Sorry...thought I got everybody. That's what I get for not going in alpha. order.

Random vote for ChaosOmega. Says Nanook & Guardian can't both be scum and is inclined to trust Guardian at the moment.
Votes YB, would like to hear more from CO.
Not very familiar with Breadcrumbing.
Unvotes YB upon seeing YB's claim, and says it may be possible there are 2 cops of varying sanities.

Huh. You've only made ten posts, and most of 'em are one-liners. You haven't said much...

[DogMom]

DogMom, you haven't posted, so maybe you would have already as soon as you get back, but I would definitely like you to answer Nanook's question, and not let it get lost in the clutter.

Addressing this, since it's come up twice.

I don't have internet access in the evenings during the weekdays, so I won't be doing any posts after about 5pm each day. I did address it when I came across it this morning.

[DogMom]

A mafia roleblocker would definitely hamper us directing the actions of the potential doc and cops, but how would a mafia roleblocker block a potential vig whose theoretical identity is unknown?

Think this through a little more.

OK, I didn't ask the original question, but I've thought it through and I still don't get it. I'd like Adel to answer: How is a mafia roleblocker going to block a vig if he doesn't know who to target?

[NanookTheWolf]

DogMom, you haven't posted, so maybe you would have already as soon as you get back, but I would definitely like you to answer Nanook's question, and not let it get lost in the clutter.

Addressing this, since it's come up twice.

I don't have internet access in the evenings during the weekdays, so I won't be doing any posts after about 5pm each day. I did address it when I came across it this morning.

Thank you for answering still though ..

[YogurtBandit]

[quote="YL"]@YogurtBandit: Last but not least, seems the most cop like and pro-town between him and Guardian... just ggut feeling really. Also about what you said about 2 docs

Based on all this my current LoS from most scummy to least is:
Adel
NanookTheWolf
YogurtBandit
Streeflo
Guardian
Erotomachia
MeMe
ChaosOmega, Nanosauromo, Nekka-Lucifer
DogMom

You think Im scummier than Guardian but Im more cop? You are contradicting yourself.

unvote, Vote YL

[YogurtBandit]

@YogurtBandit: Last but not least, seems the most cop like and pro-town between him and Guardian... just ggut feeling really. Also about what you said about 2 docs

Based on all this my current LoS from most scummy to least is:
Adel
NanookTheWolf
YogurtBandit
Streeflo
Guardian
Erotomachia
MeMe
ChaosOmega, Nanosauromo, Nekka-Lucifer
DogMom

You think Im scummier than Guardian but Im more cop? You are contradicting yourself.

unvote, Vote YL

EBWOP: Forgot to end the quote

[MeMe]

Meme: what do you do when some random dude asks you to marry him in the middle of a game? Ignore him? Claim you are married? Oh yeah...

Consider that he may be scum trying to distract me?

And I *think* Yagami might have his list reversed -- but I could've just misunderstood everything he said in his post.

Also, I find it very interesting how so many people can request a reason for a vote -- why not let the votee take care of himself?

[DogMom]

And I *think* Yagami might have his list reversed -- but I could've just misunderstood everything he said in his post.

I was thinking the same thing; however, in that case I'd like to know why I'm so scummy, since that'd put me on top of his Scumlist. He's not mentioned me at ALL, except to say that he'd like me to answer Nanook's question.
Pretty weak to make me the top of his scumlist.

Either way:

FoS Yagami

. Please clear up the confusion.