Mini 443 - Tapioca Mafia - Game over!!

[HungryJoe]

Note to the previous post:

I am not completely settled, nor 100% sure that they aren't who they say they are, but my gut and my mind says that these are the two prime culprits, and I've decided that I'm gonna stick with my gut feeling over their suspicious claims. Sorry, but a townie's gotta keep his mind on a vote someday, right? =b Why not choose one you came to a conclusion before on, even though they claimed. It doesn't disprove any of their scummy acts in the past, eh?

[pickemgenius]

Sorry, but a townie's gotta keep his mind on a vote someday, right? =b Why not choose one you came to a conclusion before on, even though they claimed. It doesn't disprove any of their scummy acts in the past, eh?

It doesn't disprove any of their previous scumminess you're right.
But.
You've got two claimed power roles.
You don't want power roles lynched.
I agree, and believe EW moreso then Khel.
If we find out either of them are lying, then we lynch them.

I think that it's best to see if they both are truly what they say they are, and come to a better conclusion come day 2.

[Patrick]

Bah.

Unvote

I guess barring a counterclaim. I am not counterclaiming.

@Khelvaster, fair enough regarding the point that a potential real vig might fail a kill on Earwig tonight due to a doc, though there's WIFOM issues. But if Earwig is scum and a real vig exists, they definitely need to counterclaim. That would likely lead to an Earwig lynch (counterclaimer usually looks more credible on day 1), but even if it didn't, we'd go to night and tell the two claimed vigs to shoot each other, without doc inteference. Also, the chance of a two vigs in a mini are pretty close to zero I think. At least, I don't think I've ever seen one.

Bah. I need to rethink my suspects now.

[MightyFireball]

I'm fairly sure that at least one of them is lying, because, as HungryJoe said, it's highly unlikely that the two major suspects end up being two of the most important power roles. I'm more inclined to go towards Khelvaster right now, but I'm not confident enough to place a vote.

FoS:Khelvaster

[Khelvaster]

...This means the town doctor and the friendly neighborhood Mafia are going to be in a WIFOM situation. Assuming Earwig is vig, the doctor can protect either me or Earwig. Similarly, the Mafia can hit up me or Earwig. There's a 50% chance Mafia will waste an NK if they try on either one of us. I will avoid saying who I'm investigating tonight. I'll report D2.

There's just something about this post that really doesn't sit right, and I'm not sure what yet. I think that maybe, it's the intentional pointing out of distraction and WIFOM, maybe? And the announcement of 'what a difficult time' the doctor will be having? I think that your newbie card just played out, buster.
]

I am pointing out the facts. I am saying the doctor and mafia are in a WIFOM because that's true. It is mostly directed at the mafia, hoping they will go after the doc instead of having a 50% chance of killing me. It is too risky for anyone to try--either townie or mafia. I don't want a 50% chance of losing, and neither does mafia. It is in everyone's benefit for the mafia not to go after me or earwig. Similarly, it is in the doc's best interest to protect me or earwig, in case the mafia does decide to go for the 50% chance. Do you follow my logic?

[Earwig]

.......................................................
I am pointing out the facts. I am saying the doctor and mafia are in a WIFOM because that's true.

It is mostly directed at the mafia, hoping they will go after the doc instead of having a 50% chance of killing me.

It is too risky for anyone to try--either townie or mafia. I don't want a 50% chance of losing, and neither does mafia. It is in everyone's benefit for the mafia not to go after me or earwig. Similarly, it is in the doc's best interest to protect me or earwig, in case the mafia does decide to go for the 50% chance. Do you follow my logic?

bolding added be earwig

Something about Khel's posts has been gnawing at the back of my mind throughout the game. I think his last couple of posts has helped me realize he doesn't seem like much of a pro-town player. I really don't like what I think Khel is saying here. If I'm reading this right, Khel would rather the doc was NK'd instead of him. I can't imagine ANY pro-town player wanting the doc NK'd over themselves. Nobody but Ecto and the doc, if there is one, know who the doc is, just as nobody but Ecto and the cop knows who the cop is, assuming there is one. As I've said a couple of times before, I welcome a cop investigation. I would also gladly sacrifice myself to save the doc, or the real cop for that matter, if it would come to that. I could easily be proven innocent by a cop investigation. Although, I suppose that if Khel isn't the real cop, assuming there is one, I don't think it would be a good idea to out the real cop yet. I'm not sure how to determine if Khel is the real cop. For that matter, I'm not sure how to convince the rest of y'all I am the Vig, other than what I've already put out there. As has been suggested by a couple of people, I'm perfectly happy deciding for myself who to NK, but I would appreciate some suggestions.

One thing I've seen throughout his posts, is Khelvaster trying to allign himself with me. I really don't appreciate this one bit. I have no connection whatsoever with Khel, other than we're playing in the same MS game right now.

Vote: Khelvaster

If I counted correctly, I believe that puts him at Lynch -2.

@HungryJoe - I assume HoS means Hand of Suspicion?

[Patrick]

I don't think Khelvaster should be suggesting scum nightkill strategy in the thread. But lynching him is unacceptable today, unless he's scum and a real cop wants to counterclaim.

[Earwig]

I don't think Khelvaster should be suggesting scum nightkill strategy in the thread. But lynching him is unacceptable today, unless he's scum and a real cop wants to counterclaim.

I think it's that nightkill strategy suggestion that makes me think he's trying to tell his scum buddies what to do if he gets lynched. That's assuming Khel is scum claiming cop, which as I've said, I have seen it done in at least one game:

Posted: Thu Jun 07, 2007 4:10 pm Post subject: 470

He could very well be lying. I have seen it a couple of times before. Once was a game I was in - a townie, acting similar to the way Khel is acting, claimed cop - he even faked an investigation. The real cop was forced to claim.

In another game, one in which I was not a participant in, a friend of mine claimed cop, but he was actually scum. The real cop tried to counter-claim, but he was a newbie cop, so nobody believed him. My friends logic was quite solid, which is different from Khel here.

I don't necessarily believe Khel's cop claim.

For now

Unvote: Khelvaster

but

FoS: Khelvaster

Patrick, just out of curiosity, why do you say it is unacceptable to lynch Khelvaster today?

[Patrick]

I think Khelvaster has been acting pretty scummy. Maybe unacceptable was a strong word to use, lol. But it seems too risky to me to lynch an uncounterclaimed cop on day 1. Maybe I'm naturally cautious.

[Shanba]

Hmm...
I disbelieve Khel's claim. But if he's lying, chances are he'll mess up sooner or later. And I'm not ready to lynch an uncounterclaimed cop just in case he's not lying.

unvote: Khelvaster

[Earwig]

I would have to agree with not lynching a non-counter-claimed cop D1, but I still don't necessarily believe him. His weird behavior could be explained, if he's actually as much of a newb as he says he is. I've seen similar behavior from newb cops before.

[Khelvaster]

[quote="Earwig]
If I'm reading this right, Khel would rather the doc was NK'd instead of him. [/quote]

The hierarchy goes cop>vig>doc IIRC? Mafia will play WIFOM with the doc on NK's until they find him, but they would prefer to get a cop if they knew the doc wasn't protecting him. The same goes for a vig.

I'm not sure how to determine if Khel is the real cop. For that matter, I'm not sure how to convince the rest of y'all I am the Vig, other than what I've already put out there. As has been suggested by a couple of people, I'm perfectly happy deciding for myself who to NK, but I would appreciate some suggestions.

I just realized what

One thing I've seen throughout his posts, is Khelvaster trying to allign himself with me. I really don't appreciate this one bit. I have no connection whatsoever with Khel, other than we're playing in the same MS game right now.

What are you talking about? Early in the game, I defended you because you hadn't posted much suspicious stuff. Lurking isn't as scummy as doing what MFB had been doing, so I went after him instead of you. Posting scumtells is more of a scumtell than posting nothing IMO. As I cooled off with MF, since nobody else was really understanding us, you started posting and seemingly incriminating yourself. Since you became more scummy in my eyes than MF at that point, I switched from defending you to attacking you. How is that associating myself with you?

[Khelvaster]

If I'm reading this right, Khel would rather the doc was NK'd instead of him.

The hierarchy goes cop>vig>doc IIRC? Mafia will play WIFOM with the doc on NK's until they find him, but they would prefer to get a cop if they knew the doc wasn't protecting him. The same goes for a vig.

I'm not sure how to determine if Khel is the real cop. For that matter, I'm not sure how to convince the rest of y'all I am the Vig, other than what I've already put out there. As has been suggested by a couple of people, I'm perfectly happy deciding for myself who to NK, but I would appreciate some suggestions.

I just realized what this means for us. I don't want to be in a situation where I end up investigating the same person you kill tonight, and neither of us want to be targetting the person the mafia kill tonight. I'll investigate someone I find to be most mysterious, and hopefully you will kill the person who you find to be most scummy. I highly doubt we would think of the same people.

One thing I've seen throughout his posts, is Khelvaster trying to allign himself with me. I really don't appreciate this one bit. I have no connection whatsoever with Khel, other than we're playing in the same MS game right now.

What are you talking about? Early in the game, I defended you because you hadn't posted much suspicious stuff. Lurking isn't as scummy as doing what MFB had been doing, so I went after him instead of you. Posting scumtells is more of a scumtell than posting nothing IMO. As I cooled off with MF, since nobody else was really understanding us, you started posting and seemingly incriminating yourself. Since you became more scummy in my eyes than MF at that point, I switched from defending you to attacking you. How is that associating myself with you?


@Everyone else: I am going to save investigating Earwig for tomorrow night. If he really is a vig and the doc protects me, thinking the mafia will go after me, but the mafia really goes after him because they think the doc will protect me because he would think the mafia would go after me (WIFOM,) then I would have wasted my investigation. If Earwig is scum and the doc protects me, the real vig might very well go after Earwig, so I would have wasted my investigation in that direction as well. The best thing to do, IMO, is to go look at someone who could be scum, isn't the most suspicious (that's for vig to kill,) and is very mysterious (doesn't help or hurt the town much.)

FoS: HungryJoe

@HungryJoe: Is there any particular reason you want to lynch a claimed cop? If my suspicions of Earwig after he claimed Vig, which were strongly backed up, made me seem scummy or overeager, look at your arguments.

"There's just something about this post that really doesn't sit right, and I'm not sure what yet. I think that maybe, it's the intentional pointing out of distraction and WIFOM, maybe?"

And pointing out WIFOM is bad? Leaving it hidden would be even worse.

"[Khel+Earwig team is] a unique combination that will not only allow us to really avoid lynching either of them, but if they can pull it off for just today and maybe tomorrow, they get the game handed to them."

So, you're saying that if we are both lying, neither vig nor cop will counterclaim, and the real vig won't try to do something about earwig tonight?

"I mean, is it coincidence that two of our most suspicious players turned out to be two of towns most potentially useful allies in its hour of need and the hour of their demise? I think not."
Linking people by the fact that they both claimed under pressure is very dangerous for the town.
*assuming earwig is innocent*
First of all, he could very well have been lurking because he didn't want to attract attention and end up lynched as a vig d1.
*assuming earwig is scum*
That would be a scum for a cop tradeoff, one which is bad for the town.
*assuming you are scum*
Either you end up killing off the town vig or the town cop, or, if both you and earwig are scum, you trade the town cop for a scum, which means scum gets the advantage.


The chance of roles being persecuted by the town can be pretty high if they are trying to avoid being NK'd by the mafia for being too helpful to the town (aka. Earwig).

I am arguing for the possiblity that Earwig is innocent, not the fact that he is innocent. Tomorrow is a much better decider on this than today.

"Bah. I simply find this hard to stomach at two very convenient times, and I still find that Khel and Earwig are highest on my scum list"

As opposed to us claiming at times that would be very inconvinient for us?

[pickemgenius]

That would be a scum for a cop tradeoff, one which is bad for the town.

Wait.

Town outnumbers the scum for sure, we know that (duh)

I'm not sure why they would why they would want a 1 for 1 trade off.


Anyone care to elaborate why they'd (scum) would want a 1 for 1 trade?


I'm honestly curious.

[Patrick]

Scum don't want a one for one trade generally.

[pickemgenius]

That's what I thought.

[MightyFireball]

Well, I think that a 1 for 1 trade off cop for scum is favoured by most cops. If it wasn't, why would they claim with only one scum to report? I've seen this in several games and it seems to be the accepted strategy for cops. The opposition to this is that they hope that there is a doctor out there that can protect them so they get more results. While this is certainly probable (for this game, at least), it isn't guaranteed. In my personal opinion, a 1 for 1 cop/scum trade favours the town simply because the town have greater numbers.

[Earwig]

That would be a scum for a cop tradeoff, one which is bad for the town.

Wait.

Town outnumbers the scum for sure, we know that (duh)

I'm not sure why they would why they would want a 1 for 1 trade off.


Anyone care to elaborate why they'd (scum) would want a 1 for 1 trade?


I'm honestly curious.

Scum don't want a one for one trade generally.

The bad part for the town would be they'd lose the cop, which would be good for scum because there'd ne nobody left that could definatively find them guilty. However, there's one less scum, which is good for the town, except they lose their only investigative tool.

Another way to look at it is this (assuming 3 scum are present in this game):

9 town, 3 scum - 3 to 1 town to scum ratio.

scum gets lynched, cop is nk'd by remaining scum. That leaves 8 town, 2 scum - 4 to 1 town to scum ratio. In general, it does not seem like a good trade for scum. I can see how the cop would like it though - he sacrifices himself, but gets a scum in the process.

[Ripley]

Also, when exchanging a cop for a scum, the town gets a bit more, because (unless it's some SK kind of role) scum don't live in a bubble and can lead you to other scum. When you catch a scum, you also get the trail they've left in their posts, and the info from what other people have said about them, voting history etc etc. Which can be quite a way towards catching the next one, especially in a game with heavy content.

BTW I completely agree that we can't lynch an uncountered cop. Maybe I'm being gullible, but I'm inclined to believe him at the moment.

[Khelvaster]

I'm sorry for saying that with the cop death being bad for a town. I was thinking that, assuming there is a vig kill in the night, that leaves 7 town, 2 scum, and the town has no investigative tool. I hereby rescind that part of my argument against hungryjoe.

[pickemgenius]

Heads up for everyone here, I know i've posted this in the Vacation thread already, but from June 20th-26th(ish) I will be on vacation.


95% I should have Internet access, just letting you know in case for some reason that doesn't happen =/

Don't need a replacement.

[HungryJoe]

Alrighty folks, prepare to be astounded. I didn't really want to do this, but I'm convinced that this will be helpful for the town more now than anytime else.

I am the REAL COP! Haha! Betcha didn't see that one coming! Well, maybe you did, after my ridiculous post earlier. I voiced my suspicions way harder than I meant to, and ended up doing almost as good as claiming there.

Anywho, I am counter-claiming Khel, who is the fake cop. I cannot prove that I am the cop yet, except for saying that I have tried my best to be pro-town, and that Khel has been consistently scummy.

Kabenon, however, would like me to note to you his following post:

I really wish we would here from some of the quieter ones, such as Aimee and d8P. Maybe just one post? Come on, we won't bite... hard . Oh, and Khelvaster, going to school is unacceptable! Please refrain from going anymore.

He placed that capital letters in a specific order that he could refer to later as an early claim. (although I think it was kind of silly, it was still inventive and original, albeit no more real proof than my actual claim)
It spells : I-M-C-O-P

Anywho, I believe that this clinches the Khel vote for me, which is why I refused to remove it. I didn't want to have to counterclaim first day and assure my death, but you guys are right, it's more beneficial that we get him for sure than that I stay alive and he gains influence as the 'cop'.

Well, there it goes. Even now, I'm a bit jittery about claiming early, but... bleh. At least you guys will get him, one way or the other. =)

[pickemgenius]

well shit.

[Patrick]

Interesting. I pretty much buy the cop claim from HungryJoe, as I can't really imagine scum coming out to counterclaim a cop out of nowhere. Plus the breadcrumb from Kabenon seems legit. Question for HungryJoe: Does the wording of your role PM suggest that you are the only cop in the game? Obviously don't quote and get yourself modkilled.

[Patrick]

Incidentally HungryJoe, if you are a cop and we lynch Khelvaster as scum today, it's far from clear that you're going to die.