Mini 456: Ultimatum Mafia - Game Over!

[Battle Mage]

hmm, im torn atm.
Fonz post 249, combined with my gut instinct, make me think that VD is the best play for today. On the other hand, there is alot of support for a Dylan-lynch. I didnt find his behaviour completely inexcusable, but i do agree that him dying might give us significant insight into the Conservative scum.

here's my analysis, which i began writing before VD's claim, so some of the speculation about the Liberal, is less valid now, but here it is anyway:

Stewie, Mneme and Stoofer are defo not Liberal. Dylan and Spinwizard are also probably not Liberal.
Potential Liberals include: Dean Winchester, Van Damien, The Fonz

Mneme and Dylan are not both Conservative.

I still think DW looks more Liberal than VD.

My main issue with VD's claim, is not only that the timing makes little sense, but also that DW looked so obviously the last Liberal, im genuinely shocked that he isnt. Im also a bit concerned at the lack of inclination on the part of some people to lynch the confirmed scumbag.

BM

[Battle Mage]

In fact, im decided. Dylans play has been poor, and i wouldnt trust his logic to catch us any real scum, but its still conceivable that he is town imo. Im at least willing to let him live until tomorrow, at which point we can re-evaluate the situation.
However, comments by Yos and The Fonz have confirmed my decision. On the premise that VD is guaranteed scum, and potential Conservative-Scum, im willing to:

Challenge: Van Damien

i believe we only have 24 hours left till deadline, and if its all the same, i dont want the decision to be made randomly.
This way there is also plenty of time to vote and discuss.

Of course, in my mind, the choice is clear. You can either lynch guaranteed scum, or potential scum. Im not Liberal, nor am i Conservative.

There is still the option proposed by VD, by which you allow him to challenge various people, and kill them off in the hope they come up Tory. Im not quite sure how it actually works in practice, but i wouldnt blame you for trusting a claimed scumbag who's idea makes little sense.

The way i see it, if VD is Conservative, we have this game pretty much wrapped up. If hes Liberal, its 1 scum less to worry about, and we can concentrate on finding the Conservatives. Its Win-Win.
Also, i wont be eligible to challenge tomorrow, so mathematically, the chances of scum being in the debate are slightly higher.

On the other hand, you can kill me, Vanilla Town. Then you will not only have 1 less shot at killing the Conservatives, you will also still have Van Damien to worry about. If you are town and make this choice, we DESERVE to lose.

BM

[Guardian]

Government Notice

Battle Mage has challenged VanDamien.

The other eight of you must vote on who

you want to survive the debate

. Please vote for you want to win and remain in the game.

Deadline for all votes is: 23:59 EDT 24th of June.

Everyone must vote and you cannot unvote.

Please do not "confirm" your vote. You get one chance to vote, and that is it. Failure to vote will result in modkill. There will be no replacements until someone is lynched.

Whoever receives fewer votes will be lynched. Tie votes will result in the last vote being subtracted. A simple plurality of votes will lead to one person being saved.

[Mr Stoofer]

I'm thinking at the moment, the

best move is to lynch VanDamien the day after we get the first conservative

. At the moment, he's a non-conservative body. However, there seems little point in waiting until there's one of each left to lynch VD, unless doing so would put us in LyLo.

Agreed. I also think that there is a very high chance that VanDamien is a Conservative - his claim makes much more sense as a Conservative gambit than a real Liberal claim. But either way, the correct play is to lynch him soon but not yet. I'd like to lynch dylan today and (if he is a Con) then VanDamien. If we do that I think we may have reduced both scum groups to 1 each.

Come to think of it, Dean's big scumtell is still around (ie, "no, we must not call the scum scum -- we must call them a 'group of three'" , and if dylan checks out as a tory, there's a case to be made that the stuff that lead to dylan's lying was him busing Dean and then getting caught at it.

I don't quite get this. Are you saying that you think Dean and dylan are scum together?

-----------------------------------------

After I wrote the above, I saw Battle Mage's challenge.

This is very, very bad play. BM was coming across as Townie to me, which makes me even more annoyed that he has done this.

I'm not going to doing anything without thinking it over, but my immediate reaction is that we

have

to make an example of Battle Mage. As the majority, we the Town have to control the challenge process and not allow it to be subverted by unilateral action (whether by over-eager Townies or by Scum). I am in favour of lynching Battle Mage on principle, so as to discourage both over-eager Townies and Scum from making challenges without the consensus of the majority.

It would be a real pity if Battle Mage is Town, but we are doing well enough to afford a mislynch; and the long term benefit in discouraging unilateral action will be considerable.

As I say, this is a provisional view -- I'd welcome the thoughts of others.

[Stewie]

I think that we should only lynch BM if we really think he's scum. The only reason to keep VD around is numbers, but getting rid of a townie will also reduce out numbers. Right now, the only reason I have to think BM is scum is that challenge he just made.

[Battle Mage]

Mr Stoofer. Whilst i commend you on your efforts to control the town, and to do things via democracy, i will request that you consider this further.
There are 4 scum left here, of 10 players in total. that means that, whilst being a minority, the scum have significant power to sway the town. In reality, it only takes 1 idiotic townie (you could use me as the example in this instance) to break this majority, and give the scum total control. Of course, you can imagine the consequences of multiple incorrect townies. scum wins the game.
So, rather than put my faith in a group of which nearly 50% are certain liars, and the remainder have good intentions, but perhaps little else, i did something i felt was right. So, you can condemn unilateral action on moral grounds, but in this instance, i feel it helps the town.

I figured such a challenge would be controversial, but im not even sure whether you can accurately call it unilateral, when in fact, i only made the challenge as a result of comments by a couple others. Ignore the fact you may dislike what i have done, and think carefully. Is it worth wasting a day that we need in order to catch the Conservative scum, or would it be better to get rid of the certain scum, and maybe deal with BM tomorrow.
In truth, im sure you can see that if i die today, you will be in the same position tomorrow, except with one less shot at victory. You must put aside your personal objections and think of whats best for the town.
I wouldnt have made this challenge if i didnt have complete faith in you to make the right decision

BM

[mneme]

@mneme: I really don't get your stance. You say twice how you think there is a good chance Dylan is scum, but both times you nominate someone else. BM than Me. What?

I nommed Dylan in my first post today (233) and never unnommed him. The other twiddling was with my second nom.

If we let BM get away with this insanely anti-town move, we're encouraging people to practice day killing (which is what an early challenge amounts to if it has any chance of working -- doubly so, since it's both killing the day and killing -during- the day). Only scum have an incentive to challenge early, especially in a way that contradicts the town debate. Therefore, anyone who's acted this way has more or less announced scummishness.

vote: VanDamien

And while BM cut things off, I think it's impotant that there be at least -one- nom count, especially when things can get confusing.

==============================================

Final Nomination Count for Day 2

dylan: (mneme, yosarian2, stoofer, stewie)
dean: (mneme (2nd nom))
==============================================

My theory, FWIW, is that either BM just doesn't understand what we're doing with the nomination system, or that he's scum who knows damned well but figured we won't stick to it, and that this will save his buddy (dylan) for another day. If that's true, then we're four scum up and well on the way to winning. If not, it's still very important to lynch Battlemage -- since without enforcing game discipline, we end up with a game where anyone may end the useful day at any point without reprisal, vastly increasing the odds of a scum win as we zero out the information we can get during a given day.

As it is, Battlemage ended the day after we'd gotten merely three datum:
1. VD is scum. (probably liberal, but concievably con running a gambit)
2. mneme, yos, stoofer, and stewie are probably not scum if dylan are. Probably.
3. mneme is probably not scum if BM or dean are. Probably.

Compare this to the wealth of info we got on day 1, and we see how horrible BM's action was.

[Battle Mage]

no. since when did you decide that the day was over?
the day only really begins when a debate is occuring. nonetheless, im a little frustrated at this 'game discipline' shit. I mean, this is a game of Mafia, not a bloody simulated Police State. If you feel it more important to teach a valuable lesson about a system which is dubious in intent and quality, than to lynch scum, thats your call. Just dont come crying to me when the town ends up losing.

[Stewie]

1. How is the system dubious in intent or quality?
2. We didn't want to lynch VD. We wanted to go after other scum.

[Battle Mage]

1. How is the system dubious in intent or quality?
2. We didn't want to lynch VD. We wanted to go after other scum.

1. you say that i am going against the 'will of the town', but seeing as the town is significantly made up of scum, its not unreasonable to assume that im going to trust my own intentions moreso.

2. You may not have individually expressed a wish to lynch VD, but some of you made the valid point that he could be Conservative-scum. If he is, not only would today be a roaring success mathematically, but it would also give us strong indications of other Conservatives.

BM

[Stewie]

1. The town is mostly town. Even with the scum in consideration, they are trying to get rid of each other, so their input is also helpful.
2. It is a valid point, but that doesn't mean that we wanted him lynched today, just that if we didn't find scum today or tomorrow we might want to lynch him. You are free to quote someone who actually wanted to lynch him today (and did not reconsider later) but I don't think you'll find anyone. You basically did this because you wanted to, and ignored what everone else wanted to do. Sure, there are scum out there, but other than VD there's only three.

[pablito]

Many thanks to Albert B. Rampage who will replace SpinWizard! He was given role pm and such before the challenge but internet spazzed on me over here before it was completely done.

[dylan41985]

ooh yikes. It doesn't make sense to me that Battle Mage would put himself on the chopping block if he was a conservative after many of us agreed to keep Van Damien around.

[Yosarian2]

Hmm. That was NOT a good move, at all. That being said, I'm not going to vote to keep Van Damienalive unless I'm convicned Battle Mage is scum; killing people just to "enforce game disipline" is usually a losing battle.

Dylan, just last page you said you thought Battle mage was a conservative scum. Why did you think so then? And why did his challange change your mind?

[mneme]

Come to think of it, Dean's big scumtell is still around (ie, "no, we must not call the scum scum -- we must call them a 'group of three'" :), and if dylan checks out as a tory, there's a case to be made that the stuff that lead to dylan's lying was him busing Dean and then getting caught at it.

I don't quite get this. Are you saying that you think Dean and dylan are scum together?

Yes, that's likely.

Dylan dropped a third vote on Dean, then listed Dean among the players he thought was town when questioned.

I'm not going to doing anything without thinking it over, but my immediate reaction is that we

have

to make an example of Battle Mage.

Exactly so.

Given his action, the odds of BM being scum are fairly high -- and even if he isn't, the loss in info/day of letting him get away with this substantially outweighs the loss to the town of a mislynch.

BM, the only advantage of today vs a debate tomorrow is an open possibility of a choice of lynch today. By constraining the lynch to two players (yourself and VD), you've just cut off that debate, dramatically reducing the info we can get today -- you've also over-ridden the plurality lynch choice of the town (ie, dylan, who had 4 nominations, two short of a majority).

The reason we need a "system" and game discipline is that the game allows players to 1/2 daykill another player. That doesn't mean players should do so -- and in fact, it's a superbly bad idea.

Since you've engaged in it, I have to assume you don't have the town's best interests in mind.

[mneme]

ooh yikes. It doesn't make sense to me that Battle Mage would put himself on the chopping block if he was a conservative after many of us agreed to keep Van Damien around.

It doesn't make sense that Battle Mage would put himself on the chopping block unless he was a conservative after many of us agreed to keep Van Damien around.

IOW, this is a WIFOM argument.

[dylan41985]

If Battle Mage is a conservative, I don't think he would put himself out there to potentially be voted out if he knows that we want to get rid of one of the conservatives before the last liberal. It's too risky.

but the other possibility is that he is conservative and is confident that his buddies will save him and that the townies will vote out the for-sure mafia (VD).

[dylan41985]

mneme - I don't understand your post 290.

We believe VD is a liberal.
We think it may be best for the town to keep him around for awhile.
Why would a conservative go up against VD knowing that we'll probably vote to save VD?

[Yosarian2]

mneme - I don't understand your post 290.

We believe VD is a liberal.
We think it may be best for the town to keep him around for awhile.
Why would a conservative go up against VD knowing that we'll probably vote to save VD?

That dosn't really make sense, Dylan. No one, scum or townie, would make a challange in the situation BM did unless he thought he would won. So either BM is a townie who thinks he's going to win this challange, or BM is a conservative mafia member who thinks he's going to win this challange. At the moment, either seems possible to me.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I finished reading the thread, and I find mneme

highly

suspicious. I don't like Fonz much either. I'd rather expose my reasons after today's challenge, if you don't mind.

For now, I would disagree with lynching BM based on principle, because I don't think it will discourage other players to do the same thing. The "BM did it too, and he was townie!" argument will inevitably come up. And if you just want to do it to teach BM a lesson, well...I think no matter how many times you punish BM, he will just pop back up and keep doing this sort of stupidity. And he's usually town -_-

In all seriousness, his posts seem pro-town until the point he issued the challenge. He looks more like a tori sure of himself than con or lib. I'll make a re-read concentrating on VanDamien, but so far I'm leaning on a vote for BM.

[The Fonz]

I'm with Stewie on this one.

Whilst I do think Battle Mage's actions were to the town's detriment, I still kinda get the feeling that it may well just have been a case of 'Manny being Manny' with him. I think the correct pro-town course of action here, at the very least, is to interrogate BM as thoroughly as possible, so that we can make the most informed guess about whether or not he is conservative or not.

@ Stoofer: At mimimum, the fact that BM's challenge has made a vote-off

against a guaranteed scum

far from a foregone conclusion should, to my mind, be sufficient deterrent to anyone pulling the same in future. Nonetheless, the warning is out there: I think you can guess what I'll do if anyone tries it.

So to begin with:

However, comments by Yos and The Fonz have confirmed my decision. On the premise that VD is guaranteed scum, and potential Conservative-Scum, im willing to:

Challenge: Van Damien

I think it's rather disengenuous to claim that the fact that I noted there is a small chance of him being con scum, in the middle of a discourse which was solidly in favour of keeping VD alive at least for today, influenced you to challenge him today.

On the other hand, you can kill me, Vanilla Town. Then you will not only have 1 less shot at killing the Conservatives, you will also still have Van Damien to worry about. If you are town and make this choice, we DESERVE to lose.

I don't like this either. It's kinda like a pre-emptive adhom attack on anyone who might vote against you, trying to make out like the decision is obvious. It isn't.

As it is, Battlemage ended the day after we'd gotten merely three datum:
1. VD is scum. (probably liberal, but concievably con running a gambit)
2. mneme, yos, stoofer, and stewie are probably not scum if dylan are. Probably.
3. mneme is probably not scum if BM or dean are. Probably.

Compare this to the wealth of info we got on day 1, and we see how horrible BM's action was.

This troubles me. Two of the three things we apparently learned today are that you are probably not scum if three different people are. I get the impression that you are not the kind of player who generally likes to analyse potential connections involving himself.

[mneme]

I finished reading the thread, and I find mneme

highly

suspicious. I don't like Fonz much either. I'd rather expose my reasons after today's challenge, if you don't mind.

I'd prefer you exposed them now, actually, before we see BM's alignment.

If you don't mind...

[quote ="Albert B. Rampage"]
For now, I would disagree with lynching BM based on principle, because I don't think it will discourage other players to do the same thing
[/quote]
It will certainly discourage BM from doing the same thing this game.

Also, how do you know BM is town? I certainly don't.

FOS: Albert

[quote ="Albert B. Rampage"]
And he's usually town -_-
[/quote]
No more than anyone else...

[quote ="Albert B. Rampage"]
In all seriousness, his posts seem pro-town until the point he issued the challenge. He looks more like a tori sure of himself than con or lib. [/quote]

Tori=conservative.

And no, they don't. He started with "we should lynch vandamien" (rather than try to get any more info today on other scum). When people argued, he backed off briefly, then forced the issue.

Not pro-town. Not pro-town at all.

Leave BM alive and he'll just pull this shit again tomorrow. Leaving us, taking things ad absurdium, at LYLO with no more info than we have right now.

Unless people think that A. BM is inarguably pro-town, and B. that he can telepathically hunt down mafia with the power of his gigantic battle-matic brain, we're better off lynching him today.

[Yosarian2]

Well, he can't "do it again tommorow" mneme. You can't challange two days in a row. But I know what you mean.

[mneme]

As it is, Battlemage ended the day after we'd gotten merely three datum:
1. VD is scum. (probably liberal, but concievably con running a gambit)
2. mneme, yos, stoofer, and stewie are probably not scum if dylan are. Probably.
3. mneme is probably not scum if BM or dean are. Probably.

Compare this to the wealth of info we got on day 1, and we see how horrible BM's action was.

This troubles me. Two of the three things we apparently learned today are that you are probably not scum if three different people are. I get the impression that you are not the kind of player who generally likes to analyse potential connections involving himself.

I don't. It's a COI, and this is why I kept all the "probably"s in there.
But since near as I can tell, the only things that happened today were:

I nommed three different people.
Bandwagon on dylan
VD claiming scum/liberal
and BM challenging Van Damien

I listed it for lack of anything else to do. I'm not about to try to make other people's judgment on whether my noms are honest, but I'll certainly list them among "what happened today" just like I (when I don't screw up) count my own noms when I'm doing an unofficial (as all of them are) nomination count.

If I was giving aggregate results that required judgement, I'd leave myself out or (as I did above) mark the results as a COI that required others judgement.

[Battle Mage]

what you're saying doesnt make complete sense. at least, not in terms of yesterday, during which discussion, and information only picked up DURING the debate. It seems like the same has happened here, so i dont see what you are complaining about...

Im not even going to delve into the realms of the rest of your logic.
too many holes if you catch my drift...

Come to think of it, Dean's big scumtell is still around (ie, "no, we must not call the scum scum -- we must call them a 'group of three'" , and if dylan checks out as a tory, there's a case to be made that the stuff that lead to dylan's lying was him busing Dean and then getting caught at it.

I don't quite get this. Are you saying that you think Dean and dylan are scum together?

Yes, that's likely.

Dylan dropped a third vote on Dean, then listed Dean among the players he thought was town when questioned.

I'm not going to doing anything without thinking it over, but my immediate reaction is that we

have

to make an example of Battle Mage.

Exactly so.

Given his action, the odds of BM being scum are fairly high -- and even if he isn't, the loss in info/day of letting him get away with this substantially outweighs the loss to the town of a mislynch.

BM, the only advantage of today vs a debate tomorrow is an open possibility of a choice of lynch today. By constraining the lynch to two players (yourself and VD), you've just cut off that debate, dramatically reducing the info we can get today -- you've also over-ridden the plurality lynch choice of the town (ie, dylan, who had 4 nominations, two short of a majority).

The reason we need a "system" and game discipline is that the game allows players to 1/2 daykill another player. That doesn't mean players should do so -- and in fact, it's a superbly bad idea.

Since you've engaged in it, I have to assume you don't have the town's best interests in mind.