Mini 455 - Mafia in Theoville - Game Over who won?

[YogurtBandit]

I investigated Adel because I realized that if I got a guilty on YB, he would say "Oh, you must be insane". If I got an innocent on him, that would prove that there are two cops, but I highly doubted that I would get an innocent result on him. Also, if he is really a cop, more suspicion was on him at that point, and I was sure he would be NK'd if innocent because he would be less likely to draw potential doc protection.

You are forgetting that naive & paranoid are possible cop sanity.

Possible power role combinations based on evidence so far:
a: 1 sane cop, 1 insane cop (or naive or paranoid), 1 vig
b: 1 sane cop, 1 vig
c: 1 insane (or naive or paranoid) cop, 1 vig.
d: 2 insane cops (or naive or paranoid) cops, 1 vig

If there were a mafia RB, I think they would've used him.
There could be a Godfather.

We all agree that there isn't a SK.

Lynching me or MeMe wouldn't prove much.

Possible lynch results:
e)Adel is town: Guardian is paranoid or lying scum. Or our mod is a bastard for making me a miller without telling me.
f)Adel is scum: Guardian is paranoid or sane.
g)MeMe is scum: YB is naive, or lying scum
h)MeMe is Town: YB is sane, or naive.

Can cops investigate themselves?

I don't think the NKs help us determine the alignment of either of our cop claims. WIFOM and fear of a doc could've kept scum away from both cops. Not wanting to out a cop-fake claim could as well.

2/5ths of my voters died last night, and were town. That creates a strange feeling.

Alot of role speculation for the scum.How could you rule out an SK? SK=Stranglings If not SK= Gun and Mafia= Strangling. WHO CLAIMED VIG? They are the Sk. I mean, seriously.

[Adel]

Flavor text. 1 kill night 0: our mayor via gun. Night 1 one gun shot and one wire around the neck. I think SK and I picture axes, hatchets and chainsaws. A gory mess. Strangling is pretty personal, but not as demented. Three people walked away guiltily according to the flavor text. 3 mafia + 1 SK, does that seem like a probable amount of scum? BM would be a terrible choice for a NK if we had a SK, but would be an obvious choice for a vig.

[MeMe]

Guardian -- you felt under "horrible attack" from me? Could you show me what posts of mine justify that feeling?

MeMe, I said considerable attack. Please don't put quotes around words if I didn't say them.

~smirk~

Well,

that's

interesting (neither Nanook nor Guardian had posted when I started typing -- no, I'm not a slow typist, I'm just helping my son fill out job applications simultaneously).

I appreciate that you wanted to explain that you missed Nanook outing me but posting "now that is interesting" doesn't really count as a post for me.

Still, so that no one thinks that Guardian was lying -- I apparently edited my post after submission, though I thought I caught my misread in preview (a hazard for admins as there's no warning that it's an edit). I apologize for changing my post, but it was accidental I didn't even realize I'd done so until after I saw Guardian's quote.

I don't really have a problem with your interpretation of me calling you scum there -- but I truly thought that BM's lack of participation and excuses were complete crap (still DO) and was having a hard time understanding why anyone --

not just you

-- was letting him get away with it. You are right, though, that I consider you the most odd out of the defenders. Your vote switch when it no longer mattered is just wild -- especially since you're now suggesting that I should've kept pushing for his lynch while patting yourself on the back for thinking he was innocent when I

was

.

To be clear: I haven't dropped my suspicion of you. The second possibility I put forth in the post you quoted still makes perfect sense to me when applied to you.

[theopor_COD]

Still, so that no one thinks that Guardian was lying -- I apparently edited my post after submission, though I thought I caught my misread in preview (a hazard for admins as there's no warning that it's an edit). I apologize for changing my post, but it was accidental I didn't even realize I'd done so until after I saw Guardian's quote.

I'm content with this explanation, as long as everyone else is. I see no reason to take any further action.

[Streeflo]

This setup is mostly closed, however you receive one piece of information. As the limited flavour suggests,

there are two factions in this game, the town and the mafia.

Below is a sample of the vanilla townie PM:

MeMe has pointed this out already. There is no SK. Emphasis mine.

[Streeflo]

I was just looking back to see who had the most to gain from Erotomachia's kill. He put suspicions on Nanos and BM before he died and mentioned BM would be a good target to lynch. But they are both dead and town so... I don't know.

[theopor_COD]

Votecount -

Adel 2 - Guardian, Yogurt Bandit.

Not voting everyone else

5 to hang someone.

[YogurtBandit]

Adel at -3..

Lets see.. With 3 Townies Dead, its 6-3 So far. Im Confidetn Adel is scum, So A scum lynch would be 6-2. Even with 3 Dead, we're at a good posistion.

[Guardian]

YB, I pretty much agree with that. If Adel turns up town, which I doubt, then we have three pretty much confirmed innocents between you me and MeMe. If she turns up scum, which I believe is highly likely, I will be highly suspicious of both you and MeMe tomorrow. Either way, we will have two more cop investigations (assuming we are both cops), or at the least one more... I feel we are in a good position, and, for her scummy behavior but most importantly

because I got a guilty on her

Adel seems like the obvious play for today. We should definitely discuss this and use our time, but I can't see how all roads don't lead to Adel.

MeMe, your explanation for the edit is OK... just try not to do that in the future.

Re: BM, to me, it seems like you moving off BM when other people wanted you to now looks even more like you were backing off a townie lynch when the town didn't buy your argument. When BM looked scummy to me, I voted him. I was wrong in the end, and you were right in the end, but I feel good about my reasons. I do not feel good about both your reasons for voting him and your reasons for unvoting him. BM obviously wanted MeMe's head and he died. I am not sure we can assume that BM was vigged... though I still believe it is more likely.

YB, I would like you to respond to YL....

[MeMe]

Wonder if Jalyn needs a prod?

[YagamiLight]

Guardian, how do you get if Adel is town you, YB and MeMe are pretty much confirmed? Seems to me that if Adel comes up scum I would be worry that you might be scum claiming insane or paranoid, YB I would feel is a little less scummy because I feel one of you is a cop, and MeMe I would probably feel is less scummy due to a higher possibility of YB being the cop.

[theopor_COD]

Jalyn has been prodded.

[Guardian]

Guardian, how do you get if Adel is town you, YB and MeMe are pretty much confirmed? Seems to me that if Adel comes up scum I would be worry that you might be scum claiming insane or paranoid, YB I would feel is a little less scummy because I feel one of you is a cop, and MeMe I would probably feel is less scummy due to a higher possibility of YB being the cop.

If Adel is town then I am obviously paranoid or insane. If I am not sane, then I would feel almost certain that we do have two cops (because just one paranoid/insane cop doesn't make sense) and that YB is the other cop. If YB is the other cop, and I am not sane, then he definitely would be sane. If he is sane, then MeMe would definitely be town, something that I am not feeling right now but something that I would have to logically conclude.

If Adel is scum then I am a sane cop, and YB is either an insane/naive cop or is scum. If he is insane, MeMe would be scum. If he is scum... well he's scum.

Right now, I feel Adel is scum, YB is scum, and MeMe is iffy; I don't think YB is a second cop, and I think I am sane, and I think Adel is scum.

[Adel]

Guardian: why did you want YB to announce his investigation first? It seemed important to you, but I'm not clear as to why it was.

[Guardian]

Because I got a guilty result. I didn't want to claim my guilty result and then have him be able to change his (potentially faked) result based on that.

[YagamiLight]

Guardian, how do you get if Adel is town you, YB and MeMe are pretty much confirmed? Seems to me that if Adel comes up scum I would be worry that you might be scum claiming insane or paranoid, YB I would feel is a little less scummy because I feel one of you is a cop, and MeMe I would probably feel is less scummy due to a higher possibility of YB being the cop.

If Adel is town then I am obviously paranoid or insane. If I am not sane, then I would feel almost certain that we do have two cops (because just one paranoid/insane cop doesn't make sense) and that YB is the other cop. If YB is the other cop, and I am not sane, then he definitely would be sane. If he is sane, then MeMe would definitely be town, something that I am not feeling right now but something that I would have to logically conclude.

If Adel is scum then I am a sane cop, and YB is either an insane/naive cop or is scum. If he is insane, MeMe would be scum. If he is scum... well he's scum.

Right now, I feel Adel is scum, YB is scum, and MeMe is iffy; I don't think YB is a second cop, and I think I am sane, and I think Adel is scum.

How I see it, if Adel is town it is still possible that you are scum claiming to be a paranoid or insane cop, and for the other 2 you based it off you being innocent, so just that would make it so they aren't confirmed.

[Guardian]

YL, that is true, I would not be a confirmed innocent to the town, I based that off knowing myself that I am innocent.

I think YB and MeMe would be confirmed to the town though, because unless BOTH YB and I are lying scum, one of is a town cop, and I would hope the town would realize that YB, with me not being sane, would almost surely be a town cop in that case. And if he is a sane cop, MeMe is town.

Like I said earlier, though, I fully expect Adel to come up scum, and I think YB and MeMe would likely be the last two.

[Adel]

YL: I see your point, but I think the more obvious scum move is to report an innocent result on a suspect player. This is WIFOM territory though.

I've ruled out the possibility that we have two sane cops in my mind. Guardian is either lying or not sane, my bet is he is not sane. In my mind that makes YB and MeMe confirmed innocent, and Guardian a probable innocent.

vote:Streeflo

[YagamiLight]

Guardian is right, if you, Adel, where to come up town, hge may not be confirmed but the other 2 would, because if he is town then he is paranoid/insane, so YB would almost positivley be the sane cop, and if he was scum, then YB would be the true cop.

[Adel]

Here is a question for the Adel doubters in the audience: why would I risk looking scummy so many times if I were scum? I think it should be obvious that I am capable of careful and modest posts that don't even hint of scum and don't attract a lot of attention.

So how quick is this Adel wagon going to be? I'll be offline from Friday until Sunday night (Pacific Daylight Time, GMT -7) and I would hate to get lynched while I am away.

[YagamiLight]

Earlier you were telling me do something scummy or you are scum, based on that it seems like you a little scummy behavior is okay, but a lot or none is scummy itself, and based on this you could be trying to do enough scummy behavior to seem like you are an active townie.

[Adel]

Argh, that again. I, thinking that you were a townie player playing it safe, tried to prod you into becoming more active and taking more risk in your postings. I think it is ok to be a little scummy if you are town, but it is a delicate line. Conservative and cautious play means taking less risks, and developing less relationships with other players which can be analyzed later. On the same page, if memory severs, or maybe it was in the same post, I called you the least scummy player. Despite all the aggravation that post has caused me, I think it worked, you have played a lot more actively since then, and you've added a lot to the conversation. Maybe you would have anyway, But I would like to think that I helped nudge you in that direction

[YagamiLight]

My point was that like you said there that you think it's okay to be a little scummy if you are town, and therefore, your post about why would you look scummy if you were scum is to look lie your not trying to avoid it.

[Adel]

My point was that like you said there that you think it's okay to be a little scummy if you are town, and therefore, your post about why would you look scummy if you were scum is to look lie your not trying to avoid it.

I see your point. ummm.... but I'm not scum Other than about a 50-50 shot of me being scum (Guardian has ~50% chance of being sane) who else is there any evidence on? I feel like pressuring players who were on the NanoS bandwagon, and honestly Eco would be my first choice of who to pressure if he wasn't killed last night.

[Adel]

He is some possibly valid logic. I'll try to be as clear and dispassionate as possible in the hope reducing noise as much as possible.

1. Ecto was a townie.
2. Ecto was killed by scum.
3. At least one scum player was on the NanoS wagon
4. Scum choose to kill a player they thought was obviously innocent.
5. Scum thought Ecto was obviously innocent because he acted in what they considered a very townie way.
6. At least 1 Scum player, probably the most influential, acted in a way very similar to Ecto, which is why that scum player has not been under suspicion recently if at all.
7. If we identify the player on the NanoS wagon how acted most like Ecto, that player is likely scum.
8. Streeflo, NanookTheWolf, MeMe, Adel, Guardian, and Ecto were on the Wagon that mislynched NanoS.
9. MeMe, Adel & Guardian acted nothing like Ecto.
10. NanookTheWolf or Streeflo are scum.

Constructive criticism?