Mini 455 - Mafia in Theoville - Game Over who won?

[Guardian]

Well Adel,

I think lynching YB, or MeMe, or I, would not make sense considering the investigation results. I think you are pretty much an obvious lynch for today. YL & Streeflo both managed not to draw much suspicion... but I am much more inclined to lynch you, who I am getting a scummy vibe from, than to lynch them, who I am getting not much of a read on. I think DogMom was scummy, but I thought Jalyn was pretty much on the up and up, so I want to hear more from her but don't like lynching her at the moment. Nanook is a possibility, but I don't really like the Nanook play either. ChaosOmega has kind of lurked; I could see him being the play today maybe.

But I really like lynching you Adel. The whole bit about how you could have lurked and not drawn suspicion is complete WIFOM, and even when you did make short posts this game I found some of them suspicious. I find it so interesting that you say there is a 50-50 shot of you being scum; either you are scum or you aren't. I think you are.

[YogurtBandit]

YL: I see your point, but I think the more obvious scum move is to report an innocent result on a suspect player. This is WIFOM territory though.

I've ruled out the possibility that we have two sane cops in my mind. Guardian is either lying or not sane, my bet is he is not sane. In my mind that makes YB and MeMe confirmed innocent, and Guardian a probable innocent.

vote:Streeflo

Random much?

[Guardian]

Yay simulpost....

He is some possibly valid logic. I'll try to be as clear and dispassionate as possible in the hope reducing noise as much as possible.

Hmm. I still think you are scum, but I really like this post, at least initially.

1. Ecto was a townie.

True

2. Ecto was killed by scum.

That seems likely to me, unless MeMe is among the scum. Even so, I don't see a vig targeting Ecto, so I am willing to assume Ecto was killed by scum. Maybe the vig thought him pursuing NanoS was scummy, though.

3. At least one scum player was on the NanoS wagon

This is not necessarily true, but let's go ahead and assume that it is.

4. Scum choose to kill a player they thought was obviously innocent.

Again, not necessarily true. The scum could have killed a player they thought was a power role, or that was suspicious of a scum member, or that was suspicious of someone else so they could say that that person was scum because a dead townie was suspicious of them... Yeah, I don't buy number four, I don't think. I don't like how you are speculating about the reason for the scum kill with such certainty, too.

5. Scum thought Ecto was obviously innocent because he acted in what they considered a very townie way.

Again, not necessarily true.

6. At least 1 Scum player, probably the most influential, acted in a way very similar to Ecto, which is why that scum player has not been under suspicion recently if at all.

Hm. If everything above is true, this makes sense.

7. If we identify the player on the NanoS wagon how acted most like Ecto, that player is likely scum.

Again, if the above is true, then sure.

8. Streeflo, NanookTheWolf, MeMe, Adel, Guardian, and Ecto were on the Wagon that mislynched NanoS.

This is true.

9. MeMe, Adel & Guardian acted nothing like Ecto.

I think MeMe acted quite like Ecto. I said as much in a post yesterday.

10. NanookTheWolf or Streeflo are scum.

If all the above is true, then yes.

I actually can see a case on Nanook. And as scum, possibly having discussed counterclaiming with YB pregame, I could see why he pointed out my breadcrumbs.... Even so, that would still point to me being a cop and you being scum. Nanook could be scum(not with YB) who just pointed me out because he saw it as the town thing to do, then realized that only scum would see it that way. So OK, potentially there is a case on Nanook.

Streeflo has attracted almost no suspicion all game. I don't particularly like lynching people solely because they haven't attracted suspicion... but he could be a lurking scum. Also, no offense Streeflo, but I don't see him being the most influential scum, whereas Nanook I could see in that position.

Adel, there were probably scum not on the NanoS wagon too. Would the above theory not apply to them, too? I think it would, and I could see you as scum using the additional information that you have accidentally and ruling those players out.

I do not 100% agree with your case, but it does have some merit. If I am indeed not sane, then you would be innocent along with MeMe and YB... and we would only have to look through five players to find the three scum... I still think you are scum though, at the moment. If you are not scum, that gives us so much information, and if you are scum, it helps us out a lot too. I am not going to move my vote at the moment, but I am going to consider this.

[Adel]

Random much?

Less random than eerily accurate, I hope.

Guardian: note that I am not attacking you for reaching that conclusion. Chances are I will be lynched, especially for pushing so hard against both NanoS and BM. Two frigging townies. Argh.

So what can I do to help the town before I get a raw hemp neck-tie? By collecting evidence and parsing it in a useful way, so that when my alignment is revealed my legacy will be some useful contributions.

Since I have the advantage of knowing that I am definitely a townie, I can jump start tomorrow's analysis of who is scum, since I feel my innocence pretty much clears three other players.

In the interest of keeping the noise down, I think it is a good idea for me not to defend myself much. I thinnk my lynch is pretty much inevitable, but as a capable player there is a reasonable chance that I can help the town in the meantime. Also, judging by BM's corpse, our vig could use a little help as well. He will know that I am town, and hopefully my posts will assist him in making a more accurate decision tonight.

[Adel]

That is why I like playing with Guardian, the great posting. I think we would make a great scumpair, man those PMs would fly

I see your point about MeMe acting like Ecto, but I'm ruling her out since I've determined that you are more likely insane than scum, YB is a sane COp and his investigation on MeMe was accurate. If you are paranoid and YB is naive, the odds are awefuly slim that you would investigate a townie and he would investigate a scum.

Streeflo has attracted almost no suspicion all game. I don't particularly like lynching people solely because they haven't attracted suspicion... but he could be a lurking scum. Also, no offense Streeflo, but I don't see him being the most influential scum, whereas Nanook I could see in that position.

I have a couple of separate and unrelated tells against Streeflo. Based on that argument alone Nanook seems more likely.

There are holes in my argument though, and I could use some help filling them. There is also a chance that it is bunk, which means that we may have to discard it. That would be a good pro-town result as well.

Adel, there were probably scum not on the NanoS wagon too.

I think that is a given. Both big wagons were against townies. The chances that three scum were on the same wagon are almost nil.

Would the above theory not apply to them, too?

We could widen the argument to include people on the Adel wagon who acted like Ecto... that would be CO then? He did target BM with an unusual level of activity, but I think that is a hard sell.

I could see you as scum using the additional information that you have accidentally and ruling those players out.

Hey, if I am scum, then all of these posts of mine are noise, and are probably better off ignored. Would you be able to predict if I would work harder to clear scum or townies if I am scum? I doubt it.

I do not 100% agree with your case, but it does have some merit. If I am indeed not sane, then you would be innocent along with MeMe and YB... and we would only have to look through five players to find the three scum... I still think you are scum though, at the moment. If you are not scum, that gives us so much information, and if you are scum, it helps us out a lot too.

I hate to disagree on this point, but I think that if I wee scum my posts really wouldn't help you out too much.

So assuming that I am correct about YB, Guardian and MeMe... only Jaylen, Co, Nanook, YL, and Streeflo could be scum. It would be wonderfully ironic if the scummiest thing I said yesterday, to YL, helped to coach him and cover for him. YL is the least scummy in that group though, in my estimation. If you look at the graphic I posted back at post #299 or #300 there is quite a bit of distance between all five of them. Except for Co, none of them drew any votes from anyone, except for YB's crap vote on YL, and Streeflo's only vote or FOS at that point was on Nanook.
Dogmom, who I've played with before when she was scum, (finished game, don't worry) kept voting distance from her scum mate, but FoS'd him. This train og thought makes me think that there is a good chance that Jaylen is scum, and re-enforces my suspicion that Nanook is scum. Nanook's outing of Guardian as cop still doesn't make sense to me if he is scum or if he is town though, since I think that both Yb and Guardian are town. I'll have to think some more.

[Streeflo]

4. Scum choose to kill a player they thought was obviously innocent.
5. Scum thought Ecto was obviously innocent because he acted in what they considered a very townie way.

I guess this borders on WIFOM, but I personally think scum might have been shooting for power roles. It's what I would do if I were scum, and seems better than eliminating an "obviously" innocent person because no one is ever guaranteed innocent.

I'm not very supportive of an Adel lynch. It may be the play for the day, but she still strikes me as pro-town, albeit the guilty result. I'm more inclined to believe that Guardian is paranoid OR YB is lying scum OR Guardian is lying scum in that order.

We haven't heard from CO, Jalyn, or Nanook in a while.

[Guardian]

This is all great that you want to leave a legacy, but I wonder to what extent responding to you is waste of time - if you are scum this is all pointless.

If you are town, then why not say that you are, and defend yourself? You say that your lynch is almost inevitable - if you think there is a better candidate - and I could possibly be convinced at this point - do so! Your resignation that you will eventually be lynched and your earlier statement that there is a 50-50 chance that you are scum really does not sit well with me.



That being said, I would like to hear what tells you have found on Streeflo.

The Nanook/Jalyn thing makes sense to me, and I would like to hear more.

I don't quite understand what you mean when you say you don't agree with my last point. You go on to say that you think the five I mentioned would be the only potential scum. Please explain.

I think Nanook, as scum, might have seen my breadcrumbs and initially thought that it would look pro-town to point them out; that it would be the obvious pro-town thing to do. Only after doing so he realized that it was actually a very bad thing for a townie to do. Basically, I can see him as thinking it was pro-town, doing it to look pro-town, and then realizing that it was very, very, anti-town.

[YagamiLight]

Adel looks extremely protown to me, but I believe Guardian is a sane cop, so I think I believe Guardian's results. I'm not sure I want to vote him yet though.

[Adel]

Adel looks extremely protown to me, but I believe Guardian is a sane cop, so I think I believe Guardian's results. I'm not sure I want to vote him yet though.

What makes you think Guardian is sane?

Streeflo, do your think you meant that one of the following is true:

1. Guardian is Paranoid & YB is sane
2. YB is lying scum and Guardian is ????
3. Guardian is Lying scum and YB is sane

Did I understand that much correctly? What goes in the place of the ???? ?

Guardian. I'm generating a new graphic. I'll respond to you post after I'm finished with it.

[YagamiLight]

I think Guardian is sane because I think there is only one cop, and highly doubt that with one cop he would be otherwise.

[Guardian]

Adel, good catch - I saw that too while reading these last few posts.

Streeflo, please do respond. I am intrigued.

[Streeflo]

Adel looks extremely protown to me, but I believe Guardian is a sane cop, so I think I believe Guardian's results. I'm not sure I want to vote him yet though.

What makes you think Guardian is sane?

Streeflo, do your think you meant that one of the following is true:

1. Guardian is Paranoid & YB is sane
2. YB is lying scum and Guardian is ????
3. Guardian is Lying scum and YB is sane

Did I understand that much correctly? What goes in the place of the ???? ?

Guardian. I'm generating a new graphic. I'll respond to you post after I'm finished with it.

Actually I was thinking more along the lines of:
1. Guardian is Paranoid & YB is sane
2. YB is lying scum and Guardian is a cop (sanity unknown)
3. Guardian is Lying scum and YB is a cop (sanity unknown)

Most probably insane or sane, seeing how a paranoid and naive cop would be worthless with only one cop in the game. Insane might add a nice twist to it though.

[Guardian]

You think that there would be a non-sane cop in a mini normal, if there was only one cop?

[ChaosOmega]

Seeing talk of a vig, I remembered that there was mention of a vig before. I went back to see who said it:

Here is another crazy idea I just thought of: In addition to or regular vote in the regular format we also post VigKill: Player ZZZZZ and un:Vigkill.

I thought the vig thing was a good idea, & I still do

I thought it was somewhat suspicious at the time, but maybe she was trying to get town input on who to vig without blowing her cover.

I'm going off the assumption that the mafia killed Erotomachia and the vig killed Battle Mage. So how did Adel feel towards Battle Mage?

he is using lurking as a deliberate tactic.

Always lynch the liar. The dude has posted many many posts elsewhere since he replaced into this game.

I expect to find at least two scum among YogurtBandit, Nanosauromo, ChaosOmega, and Battle Mage.

I find it odd that BM has the time to defend himself, post links, scan the thread often enough to reply to MeMe, ect... while he still doesn't have time to post an analysis of the game.

More noise along the lines of "I don't have time to post; I'm being mis-represented" doesn't help the town, and makes you look both scummy and insincere.

I see BM as possibly setting himself to drop a hammer vote.

And the kicker...

You are a liar. You said you didn't have time to post, then you posted quite a bit. you said that you would post a long analysis on Friday, now you "don't have access" and it is now Saturday.

I hoped you'd type out some magick words like "aecimagbnihititia aioivonv" that would illuminate this game and break it wide open for town. Instead we get this post from you. Acting pretty much as I had predicted. I thought the degree to which N-L was lurking was scummy. I'm glad your active behavior confirms my hunch.

How many other players found my post directed at BM regarding his vote on MeMe to be "One of the scummiest in the game?" I can think of a few I've written which are scummier.

Guardian and BM have both posted inditing me. See how Guardian's posts are really critical but are factually accurate? BM's aren't. Guardian's vote for me isn't a reason for me to think he is scum.

That would also explain why the vig didn't take out the person who got the next to most amount of votes to be lynched...Adel.

[Adel]

[Adel]

CO: nice theory. I appreciate that you think you are saving the vig from a lynch. Also, It took a lot of work to clip all of those posts. I think I know who the vig really is, but it is impolite to go fishing for power roles. Can you turn those analytic skills on exposing who you think is scum?

[YagamiLight]

If that is true I would think that YB and MeMe would be clear, and YB could investigate Guardian to see if he is town or scum, but thats only if it is true.

[Streeflo]

Having one insane cop would be a really twisted flair. The one cop would probably be sane though. I put sanity unknown but I'd assume sane.

[Adel]

This is all great that you want to leave a legacy, but I wonder to what extent responding to you is waste of time - if you are scum this is all pointless.

Totally.

If you are town, then why not say that you are, and defend yourself?

OK, I'll keep it short though. I'm town.

I say that I am town, and Guardian says that he is a cop.
possibilities:
1. I am lying, Guardian is a sane cop.
2. I am town, Guardian is lying.
3. I am town, Guardian is insane or paranoid.

I think 3. is the most likely possibility. If I was scum would I've been that outspoken against two townies? The only other player that made a case against both BM and NanoS was Guardian. Dogmom/Jayln briefly voted for BM and NanoS then placed that weird final vote on Adel right before the deadline. Guardian and I have the same voting pattern, while being adversarial most of the game. That implies a shared alignment. Notice my votes do not follow his, this could not be a pattern I made happen.

You say that your lynch is almost inevitable - if you think there is a better candidate - and I could possibly be convinced at this point - do so!

I'm digging for one. I have the advantage that I know my alignment, and I just read through the entire game building my graphic.

Your resignation that you will eventually be lynched and your earlier statement that there is a 50-50 chance that you are scum really does not sit well with me.

Every point that was raised against me yesterday I responded to with many many words. I've said my peace. As for your result from last night, i think I've covered that as much as is needed.

That being said, I would like to hear what tells you have found on Streeflo.

No interaction with other players, cocks his vote on Nano with a FoS, then hammers for the deadline. His vote was late and unoriginal. I hold his ability to write well against him as well- he did not generate any real arguments yesterday, and I think he is capable of it.

The Nanook/Jalyn thing makes sense to me, and I would like to hear more.

The graphic holds most of the information. The separation between the two is odd, Jalyn's late vote for me is odd, having a canceled vote on two dead townies is odd. The choices for who gets an FoS stand out to me as well. 3 townies and a scum buddy, or two townies and 2 scum buddies would seem about right. Note enough for me to vote on, but... I wasn't suspicious of Dogmom yesterday, but having the two confirmed townies makes it a little more clear.

I don't quite understand what you mean when you say you don't agree with my last point. You go on to say that you think the five I mentioned would be the only potential scum. Please explain.

The point I refered to was that my posts today would be useful even if I were scum... I don;t thinkn they would be.

I think Nanook, as scum, might have seen my breadcrumbs and initially thought that it would look pro-town to point them out; that it would be the obvious pro-town thing to do. Only after doing so he realized that it was actually a very bad thing for a townie to do. Basically, I can see him as thinking it was pro-town, doing it to look pro-town, and then realizing that it was very, very, anti-town.

The problem is I could see him making the same series of decisions if he were town. It isn't something that sways me either way.

[Adel]

I think Guardian is sane because I think there is only one cop, and highly doubt that with one cop he would be otherwise.

I think there are two cops because I know that I am town, and I think Guardian isn't scum. That would make Guardian paranoid or insane, and I don't think we would just have one cop who is non-sane.

[Adel]

The only other player that made a case against both BM and NanoS was Guardian. Dogmom/Jayln briefly voted for BM and NanoS then placed that weird final vote on Adel right before the deadline.

oops, MeMe did as well. Even worse, my vote usually did follow hers. At least that fits my theory that MeMe (cleared by a sane cop YB) and Guardian (insane cop) share a town alignment.

[Streeflo]

I think Guardian is sane because I think there is only one cop, and highly doubt that with one cop he would be otherwise.

I think there are two cops because I know that I am town, and I think Guardian isn't scum. That would make Guardian paranoid or insane, and I don't think we would just have one cop who is non-sane.

Wait, what makes you so sure YB is a cop?

[Guardian]

CO, interesting catch there. I saw that, but then I dismissed it because after my bread crumbing fiasco, I didn't think that Adel would be that obvious. Also... Adel isn't close to lynch yet nor has she had a chance to claim. Like Adel said, outing power roles is bad.

Having one insane cop would be a really twisted flair. The one cop would probably be sane though. I put sanity unknown but I'd assume sane.

Your list of suspicions (YB lying and me as a real cop AND Adel being town) means that I would have to be that lone insane cop.

FoS: Streeflo

; that strikes me the wrong way.

My comments in bold (I snipped some parts that didn't seem that important):

If you are town, then why not say that you are, and defend yourself?

I say that I am town, and Guardian says that he is a cop.
possibilities:
1. I am lying, Guardian is a sane cop.
2. I am town, Guardian is lying.
3. I am town, Guardian is insane or paranoid.

I think 3. is the most likely possibility.

So surprised you didn't pick 1...

If I was scum would I've been that outspoken against two townies?

complete WIFOM

The only other player that made a case against both BM and NanoS was Guardian. Dogmom/Jayln briefly voted for BM and NanoS then placed that weird final vote on Adel right before the deadline. Guardian and I have the same voting pattern, while being adversarial most of the game. That implies a shared alignment. Notice my votes do not follow his, this could not be a pattern I made happen.

Your resignation that you will eventually be lynched and your earlier statement that there is a 50-50 chance that you are scum really does not sit well with me.

Every point that was raised against me yesterday I responded to with many many words. I've said my peace. As for your result from last night, i think I've covered that as much as is needed.

You completely ignored answering my suspicions here; you changed the subject.

That being said, I would like to hear what tells you have found on Streeflo.

No interaction with other players, cocks his vote on Nano with a FoS, then hammers for the deadline. His vote was late and unoriginal. I hold his ability to write well against him as well- he did not generate any real arguments yesterday, and I think he is capable of it.

Has he demonstrated such an ability? You seem to be grasping at straws. He had plenty of analysis on the other players; just not FOS's or votes that you can put in your graphic.

The Nanook/Jalyn thing makes sense to me, and I would like to hear more.

The graphic holds most of the information. The separation between the two is odd, Jalyn's late vote for me is odd, having a canceled vote on two dead townies is odd. The choices for who gets an FoS stand out to me as well. 3 townies and a scum buddy, or two townies and 2 scum buddies would seem about right. Note enough for me to vote on, but... I wasn't suspicious of Dogmom yesterday, but having the two confirmed townies makes it a little more clear.

I am not sure how much I trust the graphic as representing all interactions, but I semi-buy an interaction here, and see both as independently scummy

I don't quite understand what you mean when you say you don't agree with my last point. You go on to say that you think the five I mentioned would be the only potential scum. Please explain.

The point I refered to was that my posts today would be useful even if I were scum... I don;t thinkn they would be.

I wasn't trying to make that point, and don't think I did. What I said was that we would gain information from your death - your posts yesterday and people's defenses of you will tell tales.

I think Nanook, as scum, might have seen my breadcrumbs and initially thought that it would look pro-town to point them out; that it would be the obvious pro-town thing to do. Only after doing so he realized that it was actually a very bad thing for a townie to do. Basically, I can see him as thinking it was pro-town, doing it to look pro-town, and then realizing that it was very, very, anti-town.

The problem is I could see him making the same series of decisions if he were town. It isn't something that sways me either way.

I see what you mean here, but I think he would be more inclined to do it quickly if he were doing it to make himself look pro town than if he were doing it because he actually thought outing a "cop claim" would be pro town.

The only other player that made a case against both BM and NanoS was Guardian. Dogmom/Jayln briefly voted for BM and NanoS then placed that weird final vote on Adel right before the deadline.

oops, MeMe did as well. Even worse, my vote usually did follow hers. At least that fits my theory that MeMe (cleared by a sane cop YB) and Guardian (insane cop) share a town alignment.

Well, at least you pointed this out, but I was about to. This fits right into you and MeMe both being scum. I am becoming increasingly convinced that you are the play.

[Streeflo]

Those were my list of suspicions on the two cop matter.

ON THE OTHER HAND (complete unrelated to all this), I think Adel is protown. Is that clear?

[Adel]

Your resignation that you will eventually be lynched and your earlier statement that there is a 50-50 chance that you are scum really does not sit well with me.

Every point that was raised against me yesterday I responded to with many many words. I've said my peace. As for your result from last night, i think I've covered that as much as is needed.

You completely ignored answering my suspicions here; you changed the subject.

The 50-50 split come from me trying to see the world through your eyes. If I were you I would only have ~50% confidence in my alignment, since there is a good chance that YB is also some kind of cop. Based upon my unpopularity yesterday, and your guilty investigation, if I were some other random townie I would probably have little trouble voting for Adel. I get it. There isn't much I can say that I haven't either have already said or would be useless to point out. I'm pretty much resigned to it. If I can prevent my own quicklynch and generate some good information for tomorrow, I'll fell like I lived up to my responsibility to the town.

That being said, I would like to hear what tells you have found on Streeflo.

No interaction with other players, cocks his vote on Nano with a FoS, then hammers for the deadline. His vote was late and unoriginal. I hold his ability to write well against him as well- he did not generate any real arguments yesterday, and I think he is capable of it.

Has he demonstrated such an ability? You seem to be grasping at straws. He had plenty of analysis on the other players; just not FOS's or votes that you can put in your graphic.

The marvelous thing about objective matrices like my graphic is that it cuts through chattery noise and bullshit. Streeflo never was convinced that someone was guilty enough to vote for until Nanos? It seems pretty clear to me that he choose to join a bandwagon to fit in, and he prepped it with his FOS. Nanook, Jayln and Streeflo would work as a scum pair for me, and YL's lack of activity seems a little alarming as well. I'm still harboring doubts about CO.

The Nanook/Jalyn thing makes sense to me, and I would like to hear more.

The graphic holds most of the information. The separation between the two is odd, Jalyn's late vote for me is odd, having a canceled vote on two dead townies is odd. The choices for who gets an FoS stand out to me as well. 3 townies and a scum buddy, or two townies and 2 scum buddies would seem about right. Note enough for me to vote on, but... I wasn't suspicious of Dogmom yesterday, but having the two confirmed townies makes it a little more clear.

I am not sure how much I trust the graphic as representing all interactions, but I semi-buy an interaction here, and see both as independently scummy

Please look through the pages and list any errors or omissions. If three mistakes are identified I'll draft a new one as an errata. If you think the graphic's structure or layout is biased I could post it in PNG format so anyone with Illustrator or Fireworks will be able to manipulate the image with the layers and vector objects preserved.

This fits right into you and MeMe both being scum. I am becoming increasingly convinced that you are the play.

So you think YB is a cop but is just insane, or do you think that YB is scum with MeMe and I? I find it hard to believe that a scummy YB would target his partner and lie about the result. Too many things could go wrong with that, they would never survive the endgame. So YB must be an insane cop or MeMe is innocent. With two cops it is a coin flip to determine which on is the sane one, if either are. I don't thin we would have two less than sane cops.* Ergo, MeMe and can not be scum together. I can see YB being scum and MeMe being innocent, and I think the actual case is that you are insane/paranoid and YB is sane.

*Actually... could we have two less than sane cops? Consider:
1. We know that we have 3 and only 3 scum, no SK.
2. There probably isn't a Mafia roleblocker.
3. We have a vig.

we could have:
1 godfather
2 goons
1 vig
2 insane cops (or 1 paranoid and 1 naive)
1 doc
5 townies

I think that would be balanced, and interesting. It does leave room for MeMe and I to be scum together, but then you have to consider the chances of both insane cops targeting two different scum. Remote.