Mini 456: Ultimatum Mafia - Game Over!

[The Fonz]

Dean: I doubt it, since noms aren't an official game mechanic. The way I see it, if either one isn't challenged or replaced, they're gonna be modkilled.

[mneme]

Does anyone think I need to respond to Albert? His case appears to be "too townie" mixed in with some craplogic (and some false claims, like the idea that I never attack people who aren't the weakest of the day).

I've got LA over the weekend, but can still post (like now).

I'm a bit nervous about our two "I'm not going to be here for a week" people.

Among other things, both were fiddly, ie "I could be here, I could be not here" business. So we might want to not target them (because they're not here and will die anyway?) but they might post and survive.

The worst thing, though, is that if VD is on the level and dylan is a townie (annoyingly possible, though with his scummy play I wouldn't count on it), a wrong lynch today could result in an immediate town loss.

Basically, if we're going to lose someone anyway, we gain no advantage to waiting lynching someone else -- on the contrary, we're better off lynching them so we get the info on their lynch before we have to make a decision.

That said, I'm a bit nervious of how few supporters dylan has. If he's scum, is it likely his buddies are throwing him under the bus?

Still...

nom: dylan

[Albert B. Rampage]

Going after the easiest targets isn't townie. It's bandwagonning.

[pablito]

MOD: Did VD proxy a CHALLENGE to go to someone who has four noms or more ?

A person who has told us that they are on limited access/vacation can proxy a challenge or a vote in advance, but they cannot proxy in regards to nominations or they cannot proxy anything to a specific person. In other words, someone can send in advance their possible challenge or they can send in advance who they want to save in every single possible situation, but other than that they cannot send anything or proxy anything else in advance.

[DeanWinchester]

Does anyone have an objection to me challeging dylan now instead of waiting?

We seem to be mostly in agreement that he should be the next to go.

And I can't think of any reason not to lynch him.

[VanDamien]

Ok, my end has been sent to the mod. If we hit deadline, I'll be challenging dylan. I had been hoping I could use the nomination system to become the tool of the town I have offered to be, but rules are rules, and this seemed the most likely consensus. See you all when I get back.

[DeanWinchester]

The silence from some of the most active posters has me certain Dylan is the lynch for today.

[DeanWinchester]

I would like to point out that the reason i would like to challenge dylan, Is I feel that i could easilly point out why dylan should be lynch and why I should be saved.

[The Fonz]

The silence from some of the most active posters has me certain Dylan is the lynch for today.

Please explain why you think silence from previously prolific posters = Dylan being scum.

[Mr Stoofer]

i could easilly point out why dylan should be lynch and why I should be saved.

Please do this now.

[Stewie]

Yeah, why challenge first and then explain? Explain now.

[mneme]

Most of this was written on Saturday:

=================
Albert: You've failed to distinguish between "easy" and "scummy". Especially given how often I've dropped first noms on people. It's true that this game has been very "block" -ey -- but mostly, that's because a number of people distinguished themselves as looking scummy on Day 1 (some of whom have been looking less scummy recently).

Dean: Until dylan has a majority of noms or we're close to the soft deadline, I do -- while I do think dylan needs to be lynched today, bypassing the process we've set up would reduce the info to be gained today -- as that which we gain during the challenge period is much broader than that which we gain during the votes. Which reminds me:

Nomination Count

dylan: (stewie, stoofer, mneme)
mneme: 1 (Albert)

Hmm. If we Van Damien (who's said he would challenge dylan and isn't here) and you (who've said you would challenge dylan), that's 5, an easy majority. So I guess it's ok, except for one thing:

IIRC, if VD's proxy goes off, he'll challenge dylan and survive the day (because his proxy will avoid him getting modkilled for not voting). While we're getting to the point where we have to decide whether (if we don't find a con in Dylan) we have to decide whether VD is honest scum (as it were) or our best bet to find a con, I think it's far more advantagous to have this be handled via the normal structure rather than modkill -- so there's something to letting VD challenge and avoiding the modkill.

Thoughts?

================

Not that many posts since then, but yes, Dean, I'd like to know why you think silence == dylan as scum.

Which doesn't mean he isn't, of course, and I've already outlined the additional reasons (aside from his scum/newbishness) why he should be the challengee of the day.

[Yosarian2]

Alright; we need someone to make the challange before midnight tonight, as the deadline is some random time between the 25th and 26th.

I wouldn't mind seeing VanDamien challange Dylan before then. Otherwise, I'd probably like to see Stoofer challange Dylan, because as I mentioned Stoofer's behavior yesterday seemed iffy to me.

[Mr Stoofer]

Otherwise, I'd probably like to see Stoofer challange Dylan, because as I mentioned Stoofer's behavior yesterday seemed iffy to me.

I explained what you perceived to be a contradiction. It wasn't. What was wrong with my explanation?

[Yosarian2]

Otherwise, I'd probably like to see Stoofer challange Dylan, because as I mentioned Stoofer's behavior yesterday seemed iffy to me.

I explained what you perceived to be a contradiction. It wasn't. What was wrong with my explanation?

Well, basically, you were accusing Battle Mage of being scum mostly because he didn't follow the plan and challanged someone. Then, later that day, you admitted that townies are probably as likely or more likely to not follow the plan as scum are, and then when I asked you why you thought Battle Mage was scum, you just pointed back to the posts where you said that scum would be more likely to not follow the plan.

[Yosarian2]

Anyway, the deadline could come at any moment. Who do you want to see make the challange, Stoofer? (remembering that Dylan's probably not around)

[Mr Stoofer]

Yosarian, you seem to have missed this post.

And to answer your question, I'd like to see Dean Winchester or Albert B Rampage challenge dylan.

[Yosarian2]

Actually, when I was talking about that, I wasn't talking about your line where you said "Battle Mage is such a player that the mere fact that he went off piste tells us nothing about his alignment", I was talking more about when you said

. I agree that it is Townies that are more likely to go off piste than Scum

And the rest of your points seem to mostly center on the fact that BM wanted to kill off VanDamien, the "confirmed scum", specificially. Which, again, I don't see; yes, most of us agreed we probably should wait on VanDamien, but again, that's just the kind of sitatuion where I'd expect one townie to disgree strongly enough with the rest of the town to take matters into his own hands, especally if he thought that VanDamien was more likely a conservative scum then a liberal scum.

Basically, what I was hoping would happen would be that you would specifically lay out your spcific arguments for why BM was scum in one seperate post, as a series of coherent arguments, and then we could discuss your reasons; I had some doubts about your reasons for thinking BM was scum, but I wanted you to lay out all your arguments in detail first before I questioned them, because I wasn't clear on exactally what your argumetns were and I didn't want to strawman you, and there was pleanty of time left. instead, you basically declined to answer me and just voted for him prematurly, helping to end the day yesterday before we even had a chance to discuss it. That kind if dicussion is the only way we're going to find out who's scum and who's not, and I don't like the way you and Dylan cut it off short.

[Mr Stoofer]

I explained why Battle Mage did more than just "go off piste" in numerous posts already, especially the one I just referred you to.

I don't understand what you mean by "I was hoping would happen would be that you would specifically lay out your spcific arguments for why BM was scum in one seperate post, as a series of coherent arguments, and then we could discuss your reasons". Apart from being spread in numerous posts, I had set out all my arguments in detail, coherently, with numbering and bullets for ease of reference already. If you wanted to attack them they were all there, laid out nice and clearly, for you.

As for ending the day prematurely, the day would have gone on until everyone had voted. If you had wanted it to continue until deadline, you could have waited until (just before) the deadline before you voted yourself. You didn't. I told you the reason why I voted when I did: the timing of votes matters when we have an even number of voters. I was in no doubt about where I would be putting my vote, so delaying my vote just made it more likely that it would not count.

[Yosarian2]

Stoofer, once you and Dylan had voted and there were 4 votes, the day was effectivly over for all intents and purposes, the only question left was "is anyone going to get modkilled today or not".

[mneme]

If VD's proxy "I volunteer to challenge dylan" is valid (

MOD?

) at deadline (it seems like it might be by the rules, which talk about people volunteering to challenge), I think that's the best bet -- anything else will result in VD's modkill, which puts us at L^L unless whoever we lynch is scum (and while I hope it is, we don't want to have to count on it).

I do think that scum are more likely to go off-piste than town -- scum gain no reward for staying to the program except (if the town is working this way) not being lynched. The fact is, mafia skill is a much better indicator of whether someone's likely to stick to the program (players can often not understand what it gets us unless they're already used to doing the kind of analysis it fosters) than alignment, however, as is whether players tend to play in a more "scientific" manner or more from their gut (or some other part of their anatomy).

There are something like three types of "ending the day" in this game. Challenging ends the "free for all" portion of the day -- dramatically cutting off the amount of hard info we can get afterwards. Placing the majority vote means the remaining votes are meaningless except for avoiding modkills -- and so votes placed before that bar are more significant than ones after -- there's no pressure on voting for who you honestly want to win after we reach that point. Finally, placing the final vote in a day soon (once the result is revealed) makes it impossible for people to say things that don't take into account that day's results -- which can be significant; things people say or do earlier in the game are generally more significant than things said later (give or take) as there's more risk to earlier statements. (there are many more chances to make mistakes or otherwise lose something in the game from an earlier statement than a later one. This is why, in a game with roles, early role claims are more trustworthy than later ones -- the longer the game goes on, the more info you have to make an unfalsifiable false claim, and thus the risk to the mafia for making one decreases)

That said, I'm very interested in the discussion between Yos and Stoofer -- it's self-evident, but if the newbish players aren't all or most of the conservative mafia (seems likely that they aren't all, at least), some have to be hiding among the "core".

[Guardian]

Rule clarification

: At deadline, the last user to post will be forced to challenge. If they left a name of who to challenge, they will automatically challenge that person. If they left no name of who to challenge, they will have 36 hours to submit a challenge or be modkilled.

[mneme]

Guardian: if they're modkilled, do we start a new day (ie, autolynch) or is the next person then forced to challenge ths same way?

[Guardian]

I will consult with pabs on this, but I believe that if an auto-challenger fails to challenge within 36 hours, they lose that primary and a new cycle begins.

[Yosarian2]

Hmm. So if VD told the truth about leaving a challange of Dylan, his challange is valid, but only if he's the least recent person to post. Let me check if he is...