Mini 436 - Game over - Mafia wins with no casualties!


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Post Post #625 (ISO) » Sat Jun 23, 2007 10:56 am

Post by DeathSauce »

What happens at 3:3, or any even split like 2:2, 4:4, etc.?

It doesn't explicitly say so in our rules, but in most games the mafia wins when there are as many of them as townies


Mod edit
Votecount:
Miztef 2 (VanDamien, DeathSauce)
DeathSauce 1 (ryan)
VanDamien 1 (Miztef)

Not voting 5: TopHat, Paradoxombie, Trustgossip, StallingChamp, vollkan

With 9 alive it takes 5 votes to lynch.
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Post Post #626 (ISO) » Sat Jun 23, 2007 11:55 am

Post by Paradoxombie »

DeathSauce wrote: Sorry, but this just baffles me. A player uses a highly questionable tactic in the game and then comes right out and says that they saw it used in a game where it gave the scum the win, and you think it it's only FOS-worthy? Do you need Miztef to actually announce that he is scum? Because what he's done is just one step short of that.
What do you mean? I don't see any logic you've used to prove that he is scummy except
what he did
could
help scum.
I say that's not enough. Note that he didn't say it was a scum tactic in the other game, or used by scum at all. What he said was that it failed and scum won. Not necessarily cause and effect. But that doesn't make much of a difference; let's just look out our situation.

It's a tactic that
could
help scum. It's also a tactic that
could
help the town. The fact that he used it doesn't prove anything except he put himself in a position to act like he was on either side, like I said. Additionally I'm slightly inclined to believe Miz telling the truth based on this situation alone, because:
I've seen Miztef play with willingness to lynch someone fairly suspicious rather than remain reserved and let all discussion for the game decay(I can relate too). His play fits that philosophy because it would force new discussion or allow a lynch of his #1 suspect. In other words it fits a profile of him I have formed. Comparatively I think it's not as likely that if he is scum, he would use such a tactic, when there's no pressure to do so at all. He hasn't gained anything from revealing it, so if he was scum using it it would seem more like a slip that he regrets now, and I wouldn't expect someone to make a play like that without putting alot of thought into it.

One other alternative is that he is actually Mafia with Deathsauce, and didn't intend to follow the bandwagon this far, but it became to risky to just jump off altogether. I have no idea what the likliehood of that is, but the quote of you I'm responding to seems actually to point to that DS. You haven't put any effort into convincing me, and criticizing people's play like you have in the quote seems actually more likely to make a person stick with their beliefs, because people seem unwilling to flip flop in these games after they make a strong argument. It would all be an extremely subtle and well played act of distancing.

In the end I don't fully believe any of these points yet, I just think they are all valid possibilities.
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Post Post #627 (ISO) » Sat Jun 23, 2007 4:49 pm

Post by VanDamien »

I will be away from tomorrow morning until Thurday afternoon, with no chance of logging in.

Since we're waiting for replacements anyway, I expect the impact will not be dramatic.
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Post Post #628 (ISO) » Sat Jun 23, 2007 10:33 pm

Post by vollkan »

Reading Para's quote of Death made me notice something. Death said:
Sorry, but this just baffles me. A player uses a highly questionable tactic in the game and then comes right out and
says that they saw it used in a game where it gave the scum the win
, and you think it it's only FOS-worthy? Do you need Miztef to actually announce that he is scum? Because what he's done is just one step short of that.
I have bolded the relevant bit. Relevant because Miztef actually said:
I saw someone do it in another thread (it failed there, and the scum won) but I thought I'd try it out here anyway.
The issue this brings up is that Death directly attributes the scum's win to the "unvote" (ie. "it gave the scum the win") whereas Miztef merely said that the scum won, with no causal linkage between the "unvote" and the scum win. Death said that in response to Para saying that Miztef's actions are only "FoS-worthy".

Maybe it was unintentional, I'll leave that to Death to
explain
, but I find it interesting that Death has misrepresented what Miztef said to make Miztef appear as scummy as possible as a result of this.

As an aside, I don't think that Death or VD's voting for Miztef is scummy, even if I am suspicious of the misrepresentation I highlighted above. I disagree with their vote, but I can see it is justifiable since Miztef's actions could potentially be scummy.
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Post Post #629 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 2:41 am

Post by Miztef »

I completely understand any votes against me at this point, I am actually happy to see them because if it did not happen, this situation would be brought up later in the game and I'll be a too rusty on the specifics to do any sort of good defence.

In the game I mentioned, the exact situtation was endgame 2-1. One town was a newbie, the other a quite good player. The quite good one decided to use the unvote trap with his "vote" on the newbie. The scum noticed the trap and did not hammer for the supposed win. The good townie gathered some more evidence and then really voted the newbie. The scum hammered for the win.
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Post Post #630 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 2:42 am

Post by Miztef »

I completely understand any votes against me at this point, I am actually happy to see them because if it did not happen, this situation would be brought up later in the game and I'll be a too rusty on the specifics to do any sort of good defence.

In the game I mentioned, the exact situtation was endgame 2-1. One town was a newbie, the other a quite good player. The quite good one decided to use the unvote trap with his "vote" on the newbie. The scum noticed the trap and did not hammer for the supposed win. The good townie gathered some more evidence and then really voted the newbie. The scum hammered for the win.
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Post Post #631 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 6:58 am

Post by DeathSauce »

You have to be kidding me. Miztef said "It failed there and the scum won." That certainly seems to link it as a cause and effect by any normal interpretation. Even if it isn't cause and effect, why would any pro-town player use a tactic that they saw in a game that even
indirectly
led to a scum win?

The reluctance by the two of you to vote for Miztef is incomprehensible.
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Post Post #632 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 8:04 am

Post by Paradoxombie »

DeathSauce wrote:Even if it isn't cause and effect, why would any pro-town player use a tactic that they saw in a game that even
indirectly
led to a scum win?
See below.
Paradoxombie wrote: I've seen Miztef play with willingness to lynch someone fairly suspicious rather than remain reserved and let all discussion for the game decay(I can relate too). His play fits that philosophy because it would force new discussion or allow a lynch of his #1 suspect.
Regardless, the riskiness of the play is the same no matter what kind of success rate it has, and that game wasn't even the same situation. I'm sure you'd complain if it had worked in that game and I kept pointing to that as evidence that Miztef is definitely town. It's fallacy.
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Post Post #633 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 3:05 pm

Post by vollkan »

You have to be kidding me. Miztef said "It failed there and the scum won." That certainly seems to link it as a cause and effect by any normal interpretation. Even if it isn't cause and effect, why would any pro-town player use a tactic that they saw in a game that even indirectly led to a scum win?

The reluctance by the two of you to vote for Miztef is incomprehensible.
Let me give you a hypothetical event: "I put a hat on and it rained". There certainly is no direct cause and effect and I don't believe there is any indirect causal link. What you have said and now continue to suggests is the "false cause" logical fallacy.

The town in that game, from what has been said, lost due to the allegedly "good" town player making a case and voting for the "novice" town player. Of course, it is true that IF the scum had not noticed the trap and had fallen it then the town would have won, but the reverse is not true. The town could still have won even though the trap failed. By the sounds of it, the effect of the trap's failure was to prompt the "good" townie to further build the case. Thus, the trap may have been of some relevance, but it was not a necessary cause since the "good" townie did suspect the "novice". If the "good" townie had simply given a normal vote, the town would have lost then and there anyway.

And as Para said, you wouldn't support it as evidence of Miztef being pro-town.

Moving back,
I still would like to see an actual post of substance ofanything that I have done that appears scummy so that I can address it. All I have seen in the last three pages is posts saying "DeathSauce seems scummy", not a single one saying "DeathSauce seems scummy because..."
The first thing which raised my suspicion of you (and of Ryan) was the lack of posting. That was by no means conclusive, but given the other stuff like the fact you seemed to consistently be making slight attacks on Ryan/VD, it made me feel that you were distancing and lurking. That, plus the lurking made me suspicious of you at that point, though most of my suspicion was at Para based on earlier events. There was other stuff earlier on, like your backflip on ABR and arguing that Miztef was supporting a scum HK but, again, a lot of that was similar to other people (including myself in some parts) so it wasn't really conclusive.

My suspicion against those three was fairly even and mild up until Death started with the "leading" and "false dichotomy" stuff. Until that point, I could understand the case against you, but my suspicion was effectively split. Then, your actions and responses to everything (ie. what looked like scare-tactics, accusations and continual denial of any legitimate case against you)

Having said that, I found the situation difficult once I found there to be some credit to the Miztef/Ryan/VD theory, ignoring the "unvote" thing which left me confused about what was going on. Hence, why I have unvoted now and am not going to vote you again just yet even though you have my suspicion, because too much else is going on for me to feel confident.

That said, I also don't like your latest post's suggestion that the non-voting of myself and Para is "incomprehensible". Your play of late has been to represent Miztef as being as scummy as possible based on what happened whilst denying the validity of any view which is not so strong.

In short, my dilemma is that as suspicious as I find Death, the collaborative behaviour between Ryan/VD/Miztef on the wagon makes me uneasy about it. Throw in the "unvote" and I see the Ryan/VD/Miztef trio dissolve somewhat, with Death's responses again heightening my suspicion of him.

If Death is town, Miztef looks to me to be likely scum with Ryan as a likely partner. VD has voted for Miztef, but it could be distancing to debunk Death's theory (this is really concerning me at the moment). If Death is scum, I think it highly likely that at least one of the inactives is his partner, but there is no evidence I can see supporting him being partnered with an active.

I am putting all this out here to get people's thoughts on it, since I need this dilemma to get picked through and be sorted out.
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Post Post #634 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 3:54 pm

Post by ryan »

Back from the CWS and WOW has this thread taken an interesting change of direction. Reading through what I've seen so far I still believe DeathSauce to be our likely scum but now Miztef is starting to shine through as not the pro townie I believe you to be. Setting a "trap" always makes me think of a scum trying to save his own butt by posting something and than if the going got tough you could say "Well on post (whatever) I proved I was town by doing this" admitting to the trap was also surprising, I'm going to re-read what I missed from you while I was gone but for now my vote stands. Vollkan, I've only read a few of your posts since I was gone but you are buying into me Miztef and VD being a scum trio? I'd like some evidence of this. I've done enough pro town moves in this game that I'm a little surprised that a "trap" being set isn't looked upon as you (a self proclaimed pro town player) to be a little scummy. I've stated my case on DeathSauce already in this game, Miztef is interesting as I thought he was pro town the entire way, and with two still not being replaced, I believe one of them (either TopHat or StallingChamp) to be a scum as well. In all honesty, they could both be scum with either Miztef or DeathSauce (another scenario I haven't seen posted about)
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Post Post #635 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 6:33 pm

Post by vollkan »

Running through Ryan's post I noticed a few things:
Setting a "trap" always makes me think of a scum trying to save his own butt by posting something and than if the going got tough you could say "Well on post (whatever) I proved I was town by doing this" admitting to the trap was also surprising, I'm going to re-read what I missed from you while I was gone but for now my vote stands.
That seems to be one of the reasons people have for suspecting Miztef.

I have a
few questions for Ryan, Death and VD (and Trust if you agree with them regarding Miztef)
:
1)If Miztef actually came out and tried to say what Ryan posits above, would you believe him at all?
2) If the trap had worked successfully (ie. it was a valid unvote and someone hammered without justification) what would your thoughts on Miztef be?
3) If the trap failed (ie. someone hammered and Death was lynched) what would your thoughts on Miztef be: (a) if Miztef had declared it to be proof of town-ness as in 1)?
and (b) if Miztef had acted as though it were a massive blunder?

These are the main scenarios which could arise. In each case, my own answer would be that I would become suspicious of Miztef. In the case of 1), my suspicion would skyrocket. If 2) arose I would be probably only as suspicious as I am now but I would also not be highly suspicious of the hammerer, given the possibility that a scum Miztef laid the trap in order to catch townies who were not yet on the wagon. Both 3) scenarios would make me very suspicious of him.

I don't think Miztef's actions are evidence for him being a townie, my point is simply that there is no gain for a scum in doing them. It would be WIFOM to say that since Miztef's unvote has no gain for a scum, therefore Miztef is town. However, I think it is justified to say that since Miztef's unvote has no gain for a scum it is not evidence that he is scum. I hope I have made the distinction clear.

That said, there are still legitimate grounds for suspicion (hence my FoS) since the tactic could still be used to trap a townie but I just don't think that to be overwhelming proof in light of the realistic outcomes of the above scenarios.

Also, Ryan said:
I've done enough pro town moves in this game that I'm a little surprised that a "trap" being set isn't looked upon as you (a self proclaimed pro town player) to be a little scummy.
What do you mean by this? You seem to be suggesting that there is some link between you making "pro town moves" (?) and me not being convinced that Miztef is scum due to the trap. Maybe I am missing something, but I can't work out what you are saying.
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Post Post #636 (ISO) » Mon Jun 25, 2007 12:50 am

Post by Miztef »

@ryan: Save my butt from what? I wasn't under any heavy scrutiny, I did it because I wanted to progress the game without just stating that I wanted to lynch Deathsauce. It's fine if you don't consider it a pro-town action, or unethical, but trying to save my butt is not what it was.
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Post Post #637 (ISO) » Mon Jun 25, 2007 2:00 am

Post by ryan »

Miztef: I didn't say you were currently under any scrutiny (before your trap) I said it could be used LATER to make you look innocent if you came under any fire. I'm still not sure why you admitted to the trap as soon as you did, and the motive to "move the game along" doesn't really float with me. You had been doing things very pro town up to that point and why you'd change your course of action is confusing.

Vollkan: Let's see if I can answer your questions

1) I thought Miztef was pro town pretty much the entire game and agreed with almost everything he said, now I'm not so sure. Moving the game along is one thing but setting a "trap" that is just not pro town in my opinion

2) and 3) I think it was already posted that the unvote wouldn't have counted and Miztef saying he wouldn't have cared if DeathSauce would have been hammered BUT yet still tries to set a trap doesn't make any sense to me. If he's guilty, than leave your vote and no "out" just seemed to me as though he left it that way in case Death was town than he could have an out and say "well actually there was an unvote there" Still makes me shake my head
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Post Post #638 (ISO) » Mon Jun 25, 2007 2:21 am

Post by DeathSauce »

vollkan wrote: I think it is justified to say that since Miztef's unvote has no gain for a scum it is not evidence that he is scum.
But it
does
have a gain for a scum, which I pointed out in post 607.

In response to your questions:
1) No, probably not surprising.
2) If it worked I would have thought it clever, but also slightly underhanded. My feelings would have been "mixed" is probably the best way to put it.
3) I think it's likely that both a and b could have occurred ,but I would have been dead and unable to react in the game.

I have a quick question for you vollkan. What if I had been lynched and Miztef never brought up the miniature unvote at all? That seems to be a possiblility no one has mentioned.
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Post Post #639 (ISO) » Mon Jun 25, 2007 3:04 am

Post by vollkan »

Your post [607] was precisely what question 3) was addressing actually. In [607] you said:

It seems to me like that would have been a clever "out" for a scum. If the hammer fell on me, the thread is locked, then the next day you can come in and say "But I did a double-secret unvote!" It's too late and you get the bonus of being able to promote the player that dropped the hammer as scum.

This strategy is especially dangerous when we have an unknown second NK-able entity.
I must have worded question 3) badly, since neither you nor Ryan answered it how I meant. What I was getting at is this:

If Death was lynched and then on day 3 Miztef tried to use the trap as an out (this is the scum usage you suggest in [607] and has been the only actual usage by scum raised so far), it would cement people's suspicions of him. Certainly, I would likely vote immediately if Miztef tried that unless I had a tremendously good reason otherwise. That was scenario 3a of my questions.

3b was if Miztef said something like: "Oh gee, that sucks. I tried to make a trap but the mod didn't count it. I am so sorry". Again, I wouldn't buy that and would be very suspicious, though maybe not so much as for the 3a.

Hence, tying those together I can see no advantage for a scum Miztef in using the unvote as an "out" on day 3. Any attempt of him to do so would reasonably send people's suspicions sky-rocketing. Hence, I just can't see this as evidence of scumminess because the scum would have nothing to gain and everything to lose by doing it.

To play devil's advocate with myself here:
Maybe that explains why Miztef has revealed the unvote now. If Miztef realised that he has no advantage on Day 3 using it as an out, then he couldn't just try and evade the issue by not revealing it at all on the chance that somebody would notice it at some point (either before or after Death being hammered) in which case he would fall under heavy suspicion for not saying anything. Hence, as much as it has drawn Miztef under suspicion, maybe revealing it was the smartest thing for a scum to do.

But, all this depends upon a scum Miztef actually making this move in the first place and I can't really imagine a scum genuinely taking this course of action without first realising how completely risky and unable to really accomplish anything it would be.
I have a quick question for you vollkan. What if I had been lynched and Miztef never brought up the miniature unvote at all? That seems to be a possiblility no one has mentioned.
If you had been hammered and came out town and Miztef never mentioned the unvote after that, I would have become very suspicious. If it was a pro-town move (albeit a stupid one) that failed miserably, it would only be reasonably for Miztef to announce his blunder. Hiding it at that stage would look, to me like he was trying to keep a "card up his sleeve" in the sense that he could reveal it when he was in a hard spot to generate confusion.
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Post Post #640 (ISO) » Mon Jun 25, 2007 3:36 am

Post by ryan »

In light of re-reading the posts I missed while on vacation I am going to

unvote


I just am not a fan of setting traps that potential townies could find themself in AND than having an out if a townie is lynched. I still feel DeathSauce could be our mafia but Miztef is just not sitting right with me right now. I'm looking back through posts to see what I could have missed about Miztef as I was pretty sure he was pro town. I'm not above admitting mistakes and DeathSauce might have been right about Miztef being mafia but if that's true than my case on DeathSauce might be wrong as well. I'll post something after I get a few things re-read (and done at work) What a tangled web we weeve :D
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Post Post #641 (ISO) » Tue Jun 26, 2007 5:02 am

Post by DeathSauce »

I did it because I wanted to progress the game without just stating that I wanted to lynch Deathsauce.
So you wanted to lynch me, but unvoted me? Why would you do that? If you wanted me lynched, you should have kept your vote on me. I am trying very hard, believe it or not, to find a pro-town reason for your "trap" and I am finding it difficult.
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Post Post #642 (ISO) » Tue Jun 26, 2007 5:14 am

Post by ryan »

DeathSauce wrote:
I did it because I wanted to progress the game without just stating that I wanted to lynch Deathsauce.
So you wanted to lynch me, but unvoted me? Why would you do that? If you wanted me lynched, you should have kept your vote on me. I am trying very hard, believe it or not, to find a pro-town reason for your "trap" and I am finding it difficult.
I'm not sure how I could be so wrong, and although you could still be scum Deathsauce I'm starting to agree with you about Miztef pulling an anti town move. I've read and re-read and read some more and I still find it to be scummy BUT I'm not sure why he'd admit to his plan unless he thought he was going to be found out and figured he'd try and come clean to look more townie. *shaking my head* If you aren't pro town, you are anti town and I am NOT a fan of anti town players so........

Vote Miztef
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Post Post #643 (ISO) » Tue Jun 26, 2007 5:57 am

Post by Miztef »

meh, I've got no defence left for it. I said exactly what I used it for, and why I did it.

I am sure one of the people voting for me is scum, maybe more, but I just can't tell which. My guess would be ryan, but that's just gut.

Deathsauce still looks scummy in my books, but because I used the trap with him as a "sacrifice" I can totally understand this as a pro-town action. I would be really angry with it myself.
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Post Post #644 (ISO) » Tue Jun 26, 2007 6:03 am

Post by ryan »

You consider me town all game and than because you set an "anti town trap" and I call you on it I'm considered scum? Interesting
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Post Post #645 (ISO) » Tue Jun 26, 2007 12:54 pm

Post by vollkan »

I did it because I wanted to progress the game without just stating that I wanted to lynch Deathsauce.
People seem to be quoting this sentence a lot and so I re-read it. Miztef, much as I think your actions have no advantage for scum, I can't reconcile the contradiction here.

I would be more comfortable if you explained your actions by something like: "On a reread Death turned out to look pro-town after all and so I laid an unvote trap". But I really don't like the fact that you seem to be stating on one hand that you wanted Death lynched and on the other that you wanted Death "sacrificed" to catch a hammerer. It makes no sense that you would want Death lynched at the same time as potentially wanting the hammerer lynched.

The trap only makes sense to me as a pro-town action if you genuinely have a strong belief that the person in Death's position to be a town player. Everything I have said to this point regarding the unvote is entirely dependent on Miztef actually having little to no suspicion of Death.
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Post Post #646 (ISO) » Tue Jun 26, 2007 2:45 pm

Post by Miztef »

I was heavily suspicious of deathsauce at the time of the trap.

The trap could have gone both ways: Deathsauce is scum, and therefore it is unlikely scum would hammer, and if a pro-town player hammered deathsauce he would likely do so with good evidence and I would see if I agree with that person or not and hammer/not hammer myself, if that person did not show any good evidence, he/she is likely scum, and deathsauce would be town. This is because the scum would only do this with no evidence if it is a LYLO situation.

I realize that there are alot of risks and some flaws in my plan. However, it has led to alot of interesting and unique information being presented and so at least, even if you decide to lynch me, you'll have some valuable information from my crazed antics.

The plan was not well thought out enough, you have all pointed that out quite clearly, and I can honestly say there was little planning behind it on my part as well. I thought it would just be a cool way to spice things up a bit and get some more interesting intell. If it had actually worked, that would have been even better.

@Vollkan: I didn't want either lynched specifically at the time, it depended on the outcome of the trap.
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Post Post #647 (ISO) » Tue Jun 26, 2007 3:01 pm

Post by ryan »

Miztef: So who in your opinion should be lynched today and why?
[i]Please remove your head from your ass before you vote.[/i]
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Post Post #648 (ISO) » Tue Jun 26, 2007 3:29 pm

Post by Miztef »

That is still a really tough question at this time.

There are some people who are high on my scumlist, but I don't have someone I truely feel is scum at this time.

Deathsauce, you (ryan), and VanDamien are all somewhat suspicious in my eyes, but I am also considering SC and trustgossip.

If I just got to pick who to lynch right now, I'd go with deathsauce. His whole reaction to my trap rubs me the wrong way, and I was suspicious of him even before my trap. All my arguements against him and my vote before the trap were quite true, although I was going a bit overboard in order to get the best reaction.

However, I would like to see SC and trustgossip have some input before anything too rash happens. That's why I'm not voting anyone at this time.
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Post Post #649 (ISO) » Tue Jun 26, 2007 3:38 pm

Post by ryan »

See that's the thing Miztef, unless you and Deathsauce are doing a GREAT act, I still find him suspcious as well, but the trap man, OH the trap, it just is so anti town to do something like that and not have people put a vote on you. I really thought you played (up to that) so pro town that when read it I was like "WTF!" You had seemed to be very pro town to me but than that happened and I just can't let somebody off the hook who pulls an anti town move ya know?

StallingChamp and TrustGossip are two that need to bring something to the table. StallingChamp I believe is still banned so he needs to be replaced (which I know is an ongoing process) and even Para has been very quiet all of a sudden as well. Top Hat also needs replaced and it would be nice to have some imput other than 4 people (well and VD has dropped a few comments in I guess)
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