Hey, I am writing this simultaneuously as I re-read, so apologies in advance if it is skethcy in places.
First, I want to do a bit of analysis on YB and my possible sanities. Adel pretty much has to be a Vig, making Adel town, making me non sane, givivng a lot of credence to YB being another cop.
I must be paranoid or insane. I cannot be sane or naieve.
YB must be sane, insane, or naieve. He cannot be paranoid.
I would guess YB is sane, as I don't think I have seen two cop setups without at least one sane cop, but it is possible. One thing that gives me doubt is Theo's big thanks to Ms. Kelly Chen for looking the setup over; for all we know the varying cop sanities is what needed looking over. Also, with (I assume, since neither I or YB was blocked) no mafia roleblocker, could there be a godfather? I kind of wonder, as two cops and a vig, seems powerfule for town. Possibly there is not one though, if the cop sanities are weird enough.
Moving on, If I get an innocent result, we will know that I am insane. Otherwhise, I could be paranoid, and whoever I investigate could be town, could be scum, no real tell.
YB, if he gets a guilty, is either sane or insane, again imo likely sane. If he keeps getting innocents, he is either sane insane or naieve, agan imo most likely sane, though possibly naieve. If YB comes up with another innocent, I would find it hard to believe that he managed two find two scum in a row, especially if one of the three scum is a godfather.
Full game analysis:
Nanook's post 13 where he overanalyzes his random vote was kinda odd...
ChaosOmega's 19 where he votes with no other words strikes me as odd, I never like it when people do that.
Streeflo and I get into an interesting argument about his unvote, I still think his quick unvote of YB was suspicious - and notice how he was wary of voting ever since.
NanoS finds Nanook scummy now and for most of the game, fwiw... And interestingly defends Streeflo's unvote.
YB in 44 'realizes' that he voted Nekka-Lucifer, and vote CO.
I will say
for the record
, if YB is a second cop and Adel is the vig, which seems more than likely at this point, you two sure as hell could have fooled me based on your play - and did, before Adel claimed. There is something I must be missing about Adel's claim, though -
re-read the opening post
. The mayor was killed by a bullet - which implies a mafia kill. Then BattleMage was shot, which implies the same type of kill, no? I would assume strangled is the vig kill, since the mayor was shot by the mafia. But Adel is the only claimed vig, and she said she targeted BattleMage. This is confusing me.
Mod
, exactly how relevant are the kill methods?
Notice how I was going to ask this as soon as I posted my pbpa. When YL posted the analysis that agreed with my line of thinking, I decided YL must be right, but MeMe, seriously, I just wanted to get to the bottom of what happened last night, nothing more. The mod's post about how kill methods don't matter makes this all irrelevant, but that information was not there for YL and I in our analysis.
Streeflo unvotes in post 53, and doesn't make another vote until he gets on near the end of the NanoS wagon...
In post 62 Nanook outs me... At the time I thought he had to be town doing it, but looking back, it seems to me that he could have been scum and thought it would look town, and done it immediately for that reason. As little reason as scum would have to out me (to try and look townlike?), townies have absolutely no reason to out a power role that early in the game.
Adel comes up with her Nanook + me = partners hypothesis... I still think the idea of us pre-planning that is ludacrous - honestly, me as scum breadcruming alone is silly - but Nanook's responses get interesting at this point...
72, I stand corrected, Streeflo votes Nanook. And Nanook is looking scummy at this point in the game.
74, Nanook talks about how how he would have known there was no night if he had a night choice to make. To me, that seems like he is trying to look vanilla townie on purpose...
78, Nanook makes a very clear point that he never used the lines "If I were mafia", and tries to shift focus to me.
81, Nanook says explicitly he is trying to make himself look good, and again tries to shift focus onto me for bringing up the argument he has been supporting.
83, YL implies that we should test if I am a cop by having me investigate someone and lynching them, and then seeing if I find the investigation accurate. Even on an innocent result, YL?
89, by DogMom, I don't like. She unvotes Adel (why?) and FoS's me and Nanook (why?). Scum casting suspicion around I feel.
95 by YL looks legit, and casts suspicion on Nanook for good reasons.
99, MeMe triest to catch Nekka in a post restriction. I am really not sure how I feel about that one. I (foolishly?) saved Nekka from that; to me it seems like MeMe scum could be trying to trap Nekka.
100, YB outs himself as cop (at least to me). The two doc speculation makes absolutely no sense, but again, YB is an almost confirmed cop, so I'll let it slide.
I paused here, MeMe accused me etc., picking up the re-read…....
I realize I have not the effort to do the above for the full 30 pages. Re-read, comments later. Also, looking at the above, I do not know how helpful it will be. But I will post it, so maybe you will be able to gain some insight into my thoughts...
Ok. Done reading. I think we have four likely scum. In my eyes, unless there is a godfather (Meme?
), which I find not likely and think we should deal with later, if at all, MeMe, YB, Adel, and I are almost certainly town.
That mens there are three scum among YL, CO, Jalyn, Streeflo, and Nanook.
Thoughts on each, after the re-read:
YL: Not the play for today. Good thoughts, good content, trying to make sense of everything, nothing that reveals having too much information. Of the five non confirmed, YL seems the most town like to me.
CO: Lurker. Little original thought. Very obviously rejects Adel's theory that lurkers = scum, backs away slightly in the next post. High possibility of scum, may be other scummy people in the lurking category. Not many original opinions, follower, longest post of the game was outing yet another power role… Also defends DogMom, and distances from Streeflo, interesting associations. Also, he was behind voting for YB yesterday. In my eyes, CO is the play for today. I think he will turn up scum, and two of the following three will be scum along with him.
Streeflo: Has been very careful throwing around suspicion all game, really, I don’t like that. Not associated with ChaosOmega in my eyes, but one of the two is very likely scum imo. He dances around the ‘thinks Adel is protown, but that there are two cops’ issue a lot, there is something fishy there, too. I like CO as scum better, but I would not be disappointed with a Streeflo lynch.
Nanook: Before Adel claimed he was very willing to lynch her, and also he tried to cast doubt on both claimed cops in his recent analysis. Also, though I do not put much stock into this, NanoS was highly suspicious of him. That, in addition to his reasons for outing me, make him also seem like not a bad choice.
Jalyn: DogMom’s putting the either or case on me and YB seemed suspect to me, it’s like she definitely wanted one of us lynched. Other than that, DogMom had some useful input and made sense, though. Jalyn’s play has been pretty straightforward and townlike, in my eyes. I don’t think she is the play for today though.
Really, any of the middle three would be good choices for today's lynch imo. Jalyn I definitely want to hear more from before deadline - I want to hear more from everyone before deadline, obviously, but Jalyn is the most lacking recently.
All that being said.
vote: ChaosOmega
Do not lynch me.
[wiki]Great Nibbler Takeover of 2008[/wiki]
