Mini 443 - Tapioca Mafia - Game over!!

[Ripley]

I don't really have much useful to say. The main point in his favor is his keeping his vote against Khelvaster right through Day 1, but I already expressed some reservations about that (Post 637). It's suspicious how determinedly he's avoided posting his opinions of other players; even when we were down to the last 6 he tried to get around this with huge posts containing nothing but quotes from other people.

HungryJoe said "I just think that pickem made some solid points early in the game, although I could be influenced by my like for his terse interjections. =)" - maybe, HJ, you could put aside your taste for terse interjections for a moment, and evaluate just how solid those points were?

As far as I can see Aimee has still avoided replying to HJ's post 661, nor has she clarified exactly what it was that caused her to question her view of me as protown in Post 662.

[HungryJoe]

Yeah, I'm trying to, really I am! *scolded!*

Anywho... pickem, to be honest, just hasn't come off to me as scum. BUT, I wil lsay this: the more I look back into his posts, it's true that they seem to have less content. Now, a lot of them content very little content other than things like 'Khel, you're an idiot. Go away." or other such things, and while I find them funny, they are a little suspicious.
So, basically, I guess I haven't got a leg to stand on for my opinion, really. It's hard to say I've gotten a read off of someone who hasn't done much to read, really. =\

[Shanba]

I'm back up.

I get a good feeling from Aimee's last post, ironically. She finds some decent points against me, then drops the case on a WIFOM argument (i.e. that scum would not bus both scumbuddies day 1). This would be a completely illogical thing for scum, especially scm under pressure, in her position, to do.

Having said that,

Vote: elailai

[pickemgenius]

I think there was alot of pretty good talking going on during the page I missed.
I don't like the idea of a no lynch either.

My bigger/ones with quotes(that wouldn't work) posts were to see/show the lynched/known scums interactions with everyone during the time they were alive.

Waiting to hear Aimee's case against me.

I don't think i've been avoiding casting suspicions on other players really, and day 1 me on Khel the whole time basically was because he was OMGUS'ing me basically from the point I started suspecting him, and knowing my alignment I figured such blatant OMGUS wouldn't come from a town player, and sure enough he was scum.

[Ectomancer]

Battle Mage replaces Elailai who replaced Coppelia. Please welcome him to the game!

[Shanba]

OH NO! NOT BM!

Hi.

[Battle Mage]

hi Shanba. now wake up, smell the coffee, and take your vote off me.

[Aimee]

Hi BM!

[Aimee]

Ripley has pretty much stated what I would have for me.

It is unlikely that there is a roleblocker, for one, and you even said so; for another, my investigations right now are completely useless *unless* I survive long enough and get lucky enough to find another guilty investigation. If a guilty investigation *does* occur, then that's win, but until then we have to assume that it could be a godfather, and therefore, my investigations are useless until proven otherwise. =b

As for 'go ahead investigate me', you know very well why that won't work, and I think that's you trying to hide behind 'good intentions', really. Why else would you post these in the same post:

1a) Because there are six alive, would it be feasible to no lynch today? That could lead to a better end-game scenario (where there is three rather than four.) We would gain more information by tomorrow (perhaps another cop investigation if HJ stays alive, or information on the nightkill target's role.) And seeing as HJ and others seem suspicious of me, I am perfectly happy to be the investigation target.

3) After reading the whole thread, I am confused why people automatically assume that the final Mafia member is a Godfather. Yes, it is a possibility. It isn't set in stone, however. How do we know the final member of the Mafia isn't a roleblocker? I know this is unlikely - after all they would have to be pretty stupid not to block one of the two claimed power-roles on night 1 (who both functioned without being blocked). Perhaps also, it could be a way for the mod to trick us. Ultimately, I don't think it is right to assume the final Mafia member is the Godfather, although I accept it is a likely possibility.

Now, wait, let me get this straight... you say that we should not only not lynch anyone, but that we should have me investigate you (under the unlikely circumstances that I live), and then after another couple statements, say that it's likely there's a godfather, thereby nullifying my investigations.
This whole thing just seems to me like you're trying to display good intentions, and then later trying to say "oh, well there *might* not be a godfather. probably, but maybe not." I just don't like the way that sounds like your trying to appease the town here, while still not acknowledging that even an 'innocent' investigation on you would be just as useless as everywhere else, and I know you couldn't have missed all the talk about it, because you're not an idiot. =\

I disagree here, although I can understand why you would think that - I was kind of writing in a sort of balanced and informal way - in a sort of discussion tone, answering my own questions as I went on.

What I am actually very interested in is your case - it is clear from your previous comments that you suspect me, but also I haven't seen you present a full and formal case against me. This I would be interested to see.

I would also like to see BM's views now he has replaced in.

I am reminding everyone that I am doing a case against pickem. Also I would appreciate it if Pickem did the same for me, seeing as he also thinks that I am the most scummy.

[HungryJoe]

Oh. Hello BM.

Yes, yes, I had/have a case to present, Aimee, I'm just not in a position tomuch researching right now. I'm staying at my parents for a couple weeks on dial-up, and can't stay on for more than half an hour at a time As I'm sure you can guess, it's quite limitng. =\

[Battle Mage]

lol this is the nicest welcome ive had in a long time!
I'll reread now.

[Khelvaster]

*Rises from the dead*

Oh no! Battle Mage has arrived to plague the innocent villiage of Tapioca! Run for your Lives!

*dies again*

[Ectomancer]

Gazing off into the near future, I see a deadline approaching

[Aimee]

My comments in italics.

True. However, what are the main disadvantages of a no lynch at this stage? At the moment, I see almost none. The advantages are that there is a better endgame situation for the town, meaning that in the long-term we could be in a better situation.

You say "True", and then proceed to ignore everything you quoted. I gave a disadvantage of a no lynch: that we would end up in the same position tomorrow, but with one fewer townie alive to contribute to the discussion. And I said that I couldn't see the endgame position being better unless the scum kill a protown player suspicious enough to be a lynch candidate (which I think they can avoid, regardless of who the last scum actually is). Would you expand on what you mean by a "better endgame situation"?

When I say a better endgame situation, I meant one where there would be three rather than four left in, as in a textbook sense that is a better endgame scenario. So in a textbook sense, it seems like a potentially good idea.

This was the section that sounded horrible from my perspective

. According to you, it doesn't matter whether or not the final member of the Mafia is a Godfather, because HJ will get an innocent. THIS IS WRONG. If the final member of the Mafia is not a godfather, then a guilty result will occur. So really, it does matter.

It seems starkly obvious to me that with the doc dead, if there is any chance of the cop getting a guilty result on the surviving scum then the cop will be nightkilled. Am I missing something here?

Ah, sorry. It just clicked. I take it now you mean we wouldn't be getting any more guilty results because HJ would probably be NKed. I took it to mean that basically you were thinking we wouldn't get a guilty even if the final mafioso wasn't a Godfather. Miscommunication, sorry.

Personally, I was quite surprised by Ripley, here - I didn't get the "completely always pro-town" message that I usually get from him.

These remarks follow my comments about elailai, which are factual statements. Could you clarify what you found less than completely pro-town about them? Or, if you were referring back to something else, what was it? I can't reply unless you are specific.

Are you going to respond to HJ's post 661?

Done now.

I notice that neither HJ nor Ripley have mentioned anything about my case on Shanba, and about how I have found him to be pro-town.

Well, as I had already said, I thought Shanba was pro-town myself, and I didn't have anything to add or dispute. His focusing on the d8p/Khelvaster partnership, and his attack on Khel after Earwig's claim, make him look an unlikely scum. I'm more concerned about pickengenius and elailai than about Shanba.

Agreed on this point.

Also, when I mentioned the "anti-town vibes, it stemmed from the section I (correct me if I'm wrong) misinterpreted what you said. So overall, I don't see you as anti-town any more.

[Battle Mage]

*Rises from the dead*

Oh no! Battle Mage has arrived to plague the innocent villiage of Tapioca! Run for your Lives!

*dies again*

please scrape this guy off my shoe. Seriously.

[Ripley]

Ah, sorry. It just clicked. I take it now you mean we wouldn't be getting any more guilty results because HJ would probably be NKed. I took it to mean that basically you were thinking we wouldn't get a guilty even if the final mafioso wasn't a Godfather. Miscommunication, sorry.

OK, but in that case it sounds as if you thought I'd made a mistake, whereas what came across was that you thought my comments were actually antitown. Which is a bit different.

Could we get everybody's views on:

1. No-lynching.
2. Role-claiming.

Oh, and welcome, Battle Mage.

[Shanba]

I think we should no lynch, today or tomorrow. If we do it today, that increases our chances tosay and tomorrow. So actually, no lynch today is probably the best idea.

I'd be up for a massclaim, but that one probably should wait for tomorrow, or at least until after we've no lynched.

[Aimee]

I think we should no lynch, today or tomorrow. If we do it today, that increases our chances tosay and tomorrow. So actually, no lynch today is probably the best idea.

I'd be up for a massclaim, but that one probably should wait for tomorrow, or at least until after we've no lynched.

Agree 100% with this.

[Aimee]

2) Pickemgenius

Khelvaster made an initial comment about bandwagons on page 2.

So, the bandwagon switched from Shady to pickem?

To this, Pickem wrote:

Khel, I hardly count 2 votes as a wagon, and as a sidenote:
Why, you looking for one to join, hmmmm

unvote

vote: Khelvaster

After reading, I actually find this suspicious. Khelvaster never said he

wanted

to join a bandwagon, he was just wondering where the bandwagons were moving. So overall this is a misinterpretation of Khelvaster, something I just picked up. My view here can be emphasised by the fact that Khelvaster says "I'm not looking for a bandwagon." I would say it was an "unhealthy interest in bandwagons" as Ripley put it. But Khelvaster never said he wanted to join one.

After a bout of lurking, Shadyforce makes a good point, saying:

I don't know why, but I'm getting scummy vibes from pickem but I can't quite put my finger on it. He has posted a good few times, without actually contributing much by way of analysis or opinion. His posts have just been random or quiet votes. He quietly put a second "random" vote on Shanba, and later quietly puts a second on Khel. Then as the pressure rose on Khel over the next page or two, he kept his vote there while saying nothing, happy to be on the bandwagon without actually looking to be driving it.

It's scummy behaviour.

To which pickem replies:

My vote was more of a way to get out of the random voting stage.

Khel still hasn't responded about himself, and I was disappointed when he posted last night.

Personally, I agree with Shady here - Pickem seemed to be driving something without really driving it - a subtle way of leading a bandwagon early on day 1. Also, as we know Khelvaster is Mafia, it could be a way later in the game for pickem to justify how he is pro-town. In fact, it

is

an argument that pickem has been using.

He later gets into an sort of an argument with Khelvaster about all Khel's responses. His reasons seem to be that he was doing it to "evoke a response". To me, this seems to suggest he didn't find him scummy. Seeing as he evoked a response, why didn't he take off his vote? And he then says "Lurking is a mafia sign" even though he is lurking. Not only had he not posted much at that point, his posts had only some content (and he basically ignored all other issues, bar Khelvaster).

Overall, I find it scummy that pickem votes for Khelvaster and misinterprets him, and also doesn't focus on other issues that were occurring (he only discusses Khel in his posts, not d8P or anything else). I find this as scummy, and could be early distancing. His early play makes it difficult to read him - I myself said in my player analysis on page 8 that I hadn't "a clear opinion about him."

After my analysis, he makes a bizarre comment:

Would most people agree most of Day 1 is WIFOM, until somebody gets lynched, then we can go back and look for connections and what not,just certain things scream it louder then others.

On a side note, I have absolutely no idea what this means, seeing as most of day 1 is most certainly not WIFOM.

Perhaps this post shows strategy on his part - he already points to connections between players that can be drawn after lynching. It almost implies that once Khelvaster is lynched and is shown to be scum, he would look more town, according to his own strategy.

That said, he does elicit some town tells. He says that deadlines are bad for the town (on page 10, when Khel asks for a deadline).

Interestingly, MFB points out on Page 12 that pickem has only attacked Khelvaster the whole game. He also mentions something about random voting, which pickem talks about in his next post, completely ignoring the fact he has only attacked Khelvaster. In essense, it is lurking in plain sight - only providing opinions on one player, and seemingly ignoring all others. Also, it could be seen as a form of distancing.

After even more lurking, Patrick replaces and basically says he has no read on pickem, except that pickem focuses on only Khelvaster, something pickem says he does in other games and gives a reference. I still personally find it scummy.

Page 16, I find him to be pro-town. He argues his points well against crap logic from Khelvaster. Although, again, attention is heavily paid to Khel, and barely anyone else (although he does mention Earwig). However, after Earwig's claim, he just jumps in and says it is "safe" and pretty much dismisses him. He also says that he is against people influencing Earwig's choice, which could potentially be either pro or anti-town.

On Day 2, he basically makes no impact - just quickly leaves a vote on d8P and says almost nothing for the entirety of the day. This could easily be interpreted as scummy play - leaving no impact, but hiding away, as though he doesn't want to be linked in any way to d8P or Khelvaster. Indeed this is emphasised by his day 3 behaviour, where he makes badly formatted posts referring to the links of the dead players. This shows how much emphasis he puts on links between the scum - something he seemed to say subtly early in the game he would not show.

Overall, in day 1, he basically makes a whole ton of non-content posts, and only focuses on Khelvaster. Even then, he basically says very little - just focussing on the "getting out of random voting" argument as a reason for his vote. He says nothing for the entire day, and because he was against Khelvaster, it could lead to him being seen as more pro-town. Day 2, again, no links to d8P, but shoves a blatant vote on the bandwagon. And day 3, he seems too to just jump against me, the person with the most suspicion early in day 3.

I would say that pickem's behaviour could easily make him be the last scum. Unlike Shanba, I believe his posts in relation to Khelvaster (how he attacked him almost all day 1) can be seen as scummy, as they aren't actually very analytical, and don't really show why Khelvaster is scum. The way he said absolutely nothing about d8P also shows there could be a link between them - distancing.

It should therefore be obvious that I consider pickem to be the final scum in the game.

[HungryJoe]

Well done, Aimee, I'm rather impressed. I'm not sure that I am swayed, but ou have given me pause for consideration here. =) Until further notice, I think I 'll have to

Unvote

But keep in mind that I still believe you most likely candidate, but perhaps by a smaller margin, you crafty devil.

Also, BM: Please don't ruin this game like you've ruined some of my other games. That is what 'Oh. Hi BM.' means in HJ-speak. I'veseen nothing but terrible play and scummy aactions when you play as town, and I would prefer you didn't destroy our incredibly good game here by doing the same again. In fact, I'd rather you weren't playing with us at all, but it would seem that the mod has spoken.

[Aimee]

Seeing as I did make the case, and I am sure of pickem's alignment, I am going to

vote: Pickemgenius

[Ripley]

Aimee: so you're so convinced by your own case on pickem that you aren't even going to look at Coppelia/elailai/BM? (Or me, for that matter?)I realise that there's little or nothing from the last two, but I'm a bit surprised that after taking the trouble to do a detailed case on Shanba and pickem, you're just leaving it at that.

[Ectomancer]

Keep the discussion civil and on topic please.

[Battle Mage]

Well done, Aimee, I'm rather impressed. I'm not sure that I am swayed, but ou have given me pause for consideration here. =) Until further notice, I think I 'll have to

Unvote

But keep in mind that I still believe you most likely candidate, but perhaps by a smaller margin, you crafty devil.

Also, BM: Please don't ruin this game like you've ruined some of my other games. That is what 'Oh. Hi BM.' means in HJ-speak. I'veseen nothing but terrible play and scummy aactions when you play as town, and I would prefer you didn't destroy our incredibly good game here by doing the same again. In fact, I'd rather you weren't playing with us at all, but it would seem that the mod has spoken.

i must say thats rather judgemental. as far as im aware, i havent participated with you in more than 1 or 2 games. In fact, i only recall you being in 1, and frankly you didnt make much of an impression.
its also not an especially nice thing to say.

@Ripley-hi, its been a long time since i've had opportunity to participate in game with you

[Aimee]

Aimee: so you're so convinced by your own case on pickem that you aren't even going to look at Coppelia/elailai/BM? (Or me, for that matter?)I realise that there's little or nothing from the last two, but I'm a bit surprised that after taking the trouble to do a detailed case on Shanba and pickem, you're just leaving it at that.

I think I will have a look at them, but for the moment, I am going to leave my vote on pickem.