Mini 462: Just another game of Mafia... over

[hand banana]

i knew i should have vigged elias in the first place, instead of jenter.. but i guess if i did that and elias was guilty i would have vigged jenter on night 2 so we would have the same situation..

so

Vote: elias_the_thief

i see this bandwagon rising fast, so before we lynch, suggest a nightkill for me ASAP-

[hand banana]

hmm.. one thing just came to my mind..
hypothetically, if it's 5:4 right now, and panzer is scum and pulling this on us, worst case scenario is that we kill a townie, scum kills a townie, and we have 4:3 for scum.
and if i manage to kill one scum we have 3:3. what happens in that case, considering that town (that is: me) also has a nightkill? i guess we can't have a consensus for lynch and mafia wins if they kill me, and it's a draw if i manage to survive till the last round (surviving 3:3, then 2:2, and in the end staying with one scum... )
i don't like the fact tar didn't consider that posibility at all.

unvote

fos : tar

[AlSleet]

I trust panzer's claim and he was impartial on elias before in my opinion so I think it's genuine.

vote: elias the thief

[hand banana]

ok, who do you think i should vig, and should i use night kill at all?

[~N9V~]

Vote Elias

If he turns out scum, then I would say me. I fnot, then Panzer.

[Khelvaster]

I agree with the logic that tar used, even if it is possible that he is scum...

Vote: Elias the thief

A 4-mafia setup in a 12-man game with so many unconfirmed masons and a doc, cop, and vig is unbalanced in the mafia's favor. It can't be 2-2, since otherwise there would have been three night kills. Thus, we must have 3 scum.

I am assuming that my conclusion is valid, so here is my proposal on the vig, assuming an Elias lynch.

If Elias is not scum, Panzer is the definite NK for being a false cop.

If Elias is scum, that would leave Falcone/Tar and Me/Panzer as the two possible scum. This ought to be a townie win.

Tell me if this suggestion is wrong, people, but I think that vigging Tar or Falcone is the best option here if Elias is innocent. If we get the doc, we can lynch the other guy tomorrow, and HB can vig me or Panzer at night. The next day, lynch the other guy, if you end up vigging me. That is the worst case scenario, and it will mean 3 scum lynched in 3 days. I'll investigate Panzer tonight just to double check that he isn't a cop.

[AlSleet]

I agree with the logic that tar used, even if it is possible that he is scum...

Vote: Elias the thief

A 4-mafia setup in a 12-man game with so many unconfirmed masons and a doc, cop, and vig is unbalanced in the mafia's favor. It can't be 2-2, since otherwise there would have been three night kills. Thus, we must have 3 scum.

I am assuming that my conclusion is valid, so here is my proposal on the vig, assuming an Elias lynch.

If Elias is not scum, Panzer is the definite NK for being a false cop.

If Elias is scum, that would leave Falcone/Tar and Me/Panzer as the two possible scum. This ought to be a townie win.

Tell me if this suggestion is wrong, people, but I think that vigging Tar or Falcone is the best option here if Elias is innocent. If we get the doc, we can lynch the other guy tomorrow, and HB can vig me or Panzer at night. The next day, lynch the other guy, if you end up vigging me. That is the worst case scenario, and it will mean 3 scum lynched in 3 days. I'll investigate Panzer tonight just to double check that he isn't a cop.

I wouldn't bother investigating panzer because if elias turns up innocent we know he'd be a liar.

[Tarhalindur]

Khelvaster, the main flaw I can see with your reasoning on the setup is that there's still one scenario in which we can have a double mafia or SK: namely, if hand banana is lying about his role.

That doesn't affect the vigging argument, though, since hand banana almost certainly won't fire at himself, regardless of his role. In my opinion, if elias comes up scum, there are 5 players who could be vigged tonight:

Khelvaster/Panzerjager: This depends on whether we think there are 2 cops or not. If Elias comes up scum and hand banana decides to fire at a cop tonight, then IMO Khelvaster is the best bet (since Panzerjager will be a mostly-confirmed cop).

Falcone/Me: This is a slightly worse option IMO, since vigging a doc guarantees that we start losing power roles. If hand banana decides to vig a doc I'd prefer if Falcone gets vigged, for obvious reasons.

Acfan: Unclaimed, has promised material but has not followed through on that promise. I don't really feel comfortable lynching him (not enough material to go on), but given how little he's contributed and how little we know about him vigging acfan seems like a good idea to me.

I think Khelvaster and acfan are the best options for vigging if elias comes up scum.

[PJ.]

You forgot about Sanity issues. This town is obviously overpower. There has to be things that are screwy. Best kill is probably N9V. But I'm not sure. I'm investigating AC tonight.

[PJ.]

EBWOP:

Vote:Elias

[Falcone]

What the ...

That's lynch...

What need was there to rush trough the day? There's obviously either a non-sane or a scum cop, so why believe Panzerjager on his word? Why end the day before ac1983fan has claimed?

If Elias is scum, we should lynch his mason partner tomorrow (~N9V~), or hand banana can kill him.

[hand banana]

damn... BOTH COPS INVESTIGATE ONE PERSON!
and i want that to be Tarhalindur.

that's the only way to know if we have sanity issues.
i'll vig ac (if he turns up town, it's not my fault, cause he can't be the only one that has no power role, and if townies lied about being power roles, it's their fault),
so panzer DO NOT INVESTIGATE him.

[hand banana]

actually, i will not rush with sending that NK.
i will re-read, and then decide.

[hand banana]

someone please suggest a NK for me before mod is here! ASAP!

[Tarhalindur]

Um, hand banana, if Elias comes up town then you should really vig the hell out of Panzer tonight.

Or do you know that Elias is going to turn up scum?

[hand banana]

i hope he will (he was my prime suspect one page ago.), cause if he doesn't and there is 4 mafia, town lost this game already.
and that's the main reason i withdrew my vote, i wanted to slowly reconsider everything.
i can't understand why town voted so quickly..

omg i just realized something.....!!!!
even in case of 3 mafia, there are 5 civilians.
and i unvoted.
so if he was scum, there could only be 4 townie votes for him. and he got 5!
so HE IS NOT SCUM. why would one scum vote for his own team mate when i unvoted???

i think i'll vig panzer tonight.

and tar, my question was: if you were vig, who would you vig tonight?
suggestions, fast, while we wait for mod!

[hand banana]

EDIT:: nope, sorry, i'm retarded, if there are 3 scum, 6 townies are alive, not 5. so i guess, town could lynch him without me, if ALL 5 voted.

[~N9V~]

That's crap logic, please don't use it again. There's too many variables in that equation to figure out.

[hand banana]

ok, but why no one suggested anything regarding my NK yet?

[PJ.]

Vig AC.

[Khelvaster]

Don't listen to panzer. Read my post, and vig tar or falcone, whichever you think is the scummier. Either way, we will either get a scum tonight or get a scum tomorrow.

Also, if Elias is not scum, kill Panzer.

[Khelvaster]

EBWOP: You don't know who the doc will protect--you just know that it isn't going to be falcone or tar. I suggest tar, but if you think falcone is worse go ahead and try him. Contrary to what tar said, we aren't guaranteed to start losing power roles. There is a 50% we lose power roles. I will go ahead and investigate acfan tonight--that's what cops are for. Vigs are for doing things that are pretty much confirmed beneficial for the town. A 50% chance to trade doc for a scum and a 50% chance to confirm a doc and kill a scum is a win-win situation.

[hand banana]

first of all, i think you and panzer need to make deal and choose one player to investigate. both of you.
and no, i will not hit one doc randomly tonight.

other players' suggestions for my NK?

[hand banana]

first of all, i think you and panzer need to make deal and choose one player to investigate. both of you.

one reason is to determine something from your behavior, other reason is that i know not to vig that guy, it would be a waste of investigation.

[Khelvaster]

first of all, i think you and panzer need to make deal and choose one player to investigate. both of you.

one reason is to determine something from your behavior, other reason is that i know not to vig that guy, it would be a waste of investigation.

And then the mafia ends up killing the guy. No thanks.

Anyway, let's assume Elias is guilty. His innocence would give an obvious NK choice of Panzer.

So, assuming Elias is guilty,

1. you NK tar, and he is the doc. The scum NK someone else. We have 6 people left, 2 of whom are scum.

2. The next day, we lynch Falcone. There are 5 people left, 1 of whom is scum.*

3. That night, you vig me or Panzer (hopefully panzer will appear scummier than I do by that point.) Assuming you vig me, there are 4 people left, and you know which one is scum.

4. We lynch Panzer. This is game over, town wins. Of course, if you are a serial killer, you would end up winning too, provided you still live. Either way, it is in your best interest to folloiw this course of action...

*The doctor should protect you, so the mafia will have to kill him that night, leaving you to get an NK the following night against one of the claimed cops.

And to the rebuttals:
There isn't a 2-2 mafia setup because otherwise there would be three NKs, with a vig and 2 mafias. It would be in both mafia's best interests to NK night 1.

A 4-man mafia and a vig fundamentally unbalances the game. Two straight days of mislynches and bad vig kills mean that the town loses. If there are 4 scum and Elias is town, we are pretty much screwed regardless of what HB does. That is why I believe 3 mafia is more likely.