Mini 455 - Mafia in Theoville - Game Over who won?

[ChaosOmega]

You are FAR from confirmed.

How did you get it right when MeMe was innocent? If you're scum, you know everyone's alignment.

You didn't answer Jalyn's question, which I think you should.

Well, the lynch for today is either Streeflo or YogurtBandit, and I don't know which yet. However, I have a cookout to go to. Will post analysis either tonight or tomorrow.

[YogurtBandit]

I tis obviously Streeflo, I was confirmed until he fakeclaimed.

[theopor_COD]

I've prodded Nanook for y'all.

[NanookTheWolf]

I'm here guys ..

I don't have a pbpa yet on either Jalyn or CO due to their being a busy holiday and what not, I have read the posts for today though.

I can't say which of YB or Streeflo I believe more then the other. YB has been constant with himself being a cop, and Streeflo has been pretty quiet, but his results still sound right to me. I could see Guardian and YB doing a cop/cop gambit only because they seem to be pretty close on the site and if they're mafia I don't think they'd hesitate to perform it.

I can't really defend myself much as I am just a townie with no abilities what so ever. Me outing Guardian proved to be the right thing as he eventually turned up scum. I don't suggest a kill of myself tonight, especially if YB is killed and shows up as scum. Same thing for Streeflo actually as neither of them have total confirmation in my eyes.

As for Adel following what Guardian stated in his post ... I'm still against it, and would be if it were Streeflo and Jalyn's names included in it instead of mine. I don't care how pro-town like he was, I just wouldn't risk it. Also, I know that I'm not scum, and I get vibes that Streeflo isn't either, so I say go with YB, Jalyn, or CO. Of course I'm not going to suggest myself as a lynch.

[YogurtBandit]

And Of course, you're not going to suggest your buddy as a lynch.

[Streeflo]

As for the Mafia kill last night, I have no idea why they didn't choose YB or Adel.
YB as mafia makes sense, as he would want to kill MeMe to confirm himself.

Or Maybe that's what you wanted.

Vote:Streeflo

Well, as WIFOM as it is, personally if I was mafia I'd love for Adel to be dead. She seemed to be planning on killing me or Nanook and having a vig lying around is dangerous. But each to his own I guess.

\
Streeflo: If you are a tracker why did you seem to believe that we also had TWO cops? Wouldn't that make the town incredibly over powered? You admit that you should have tracked one of the two cops night one. Why did you choose Adel?\

Well, I didn't know there was a vig during Day 1 and I certainly did not expect a doctor to show up today.

I chose Adel because (no offense) she was the one generating the most noise for the town. Really didn't know who to pick, so decided might as well her. Neglecting ongoing games, I haven't had an information role yet and don't really know how to play it well. When it showed up she went to BM, I knew she was a vig. Scum wouldn't try and off a sure mislynch lyk BM. It would completely ridiculous.

[Streeflo]

Oh btw, Happy Fourth of July everyone! Although I think I'm about an hour late. Bah!

[Jalyn]

YB, you weren't confirmed you were uncontested, there's a difference. Adel is confirmed because we can see that we have a vig and everyone else has said that they are NOT the vig. We don't KNOW that we have a cop, we all just assumed it.

I reitterate:

YB: Why revote Streeflo already? I thought we were holding off until we had discussed who was the last mafia. Streeflo's claim shouldn't have actually changed anything for you. You already knew that he was guilty based on your cop result, a fake claim wouldn't make him any more guilty.

Adel, I think everyone has weighed in with at least indetermination at this point. What do you think?

[Adel]

players left: Adel, Jalyn, Streeflo, nanook, YB, CO

2 are scum, so the score is 4:2

I think that 1 of Streeflo or YB are scum

lynch YB or Streeflo, result = scum, score = 4:1 mafia nk: 3:1 vig nk: 2:1 or 3:0
lynch Yb or Streeflo, result = town, score = 3:2, mafia nk: 2:2, vig nk: 1:2 or 2:1

so the possible results are 25% chance of town win after tonight, 25% chance of scum win after tonight, and 50% chance of us having two town and one scum after today.

I think it is critically importnat tat we not only identify the scum, but also identify who his or her partner is.

Since I am the only player confirmed, I am playing with my cards [

very close to my chest

.

I want today to last right up until the deadline, and I want any other roles to claim, right now.

Adel: vig
YB: cop
Nanook: townie
CO: townie
Streeflo: tracker

Are these correct?

Jalyn: what is your role?

I want all of you to present the best case you can generate for why a specific person is scum, and who his partner is. I want all of you to rank all of the other players in order of scumminess. I want all of you to present a whole lot of information.

I do not want to see any debate for right now. Consider this period to be a brainstorming session, where all ideas are presented without being challenged.

With a bunch of overlapping cases, I feel certain that I will be able to conclude who the scum is with a good degree of confidence.

If we lynch correctly today, and I kill correctly tonight, we win. If either our lynch or my nk are in err, then our chances for winning are not that great.

Three of you are town, two of you are scum. Lets hear what you have to say.

[YogurtBandit]

Wel,, If we lynch me, when I turn up cop, Streeflo is the obvious NK. The problem for adel is it is lylo basically (2-1) and If Streeflo Mafia lynches me, they will take out the vig(adel) tonight so It is REALLY Lylo.

If we lynch Syreeflo, he WILL comeup mafia. When He does, Nanook is the vig for tonight, and game over, town wins. If Streeflo is town,for all sakes, Vig Nanook.Adel will have to use the vig to have a chance of winning. I highly doubt he wioll be town though. Nanoook is the obv scum you would want to vig if Streeflo is. NANOOK CLAIMED FOR GUARDIAN. In fact, if we lynch Nanook scum, We could be more safe since it would be 3-1 WITH A killing role.

Let's just lynch nanoook scum or Streeflo and finish this.

[Adel]

YB: if you didn't

know

that you were the cop, why would you think that Streeflo is lying and Nanook is his scumbuddy?

[YogurtBandit]

YB: if you didn't

know

that you were the cop, why would you think that Streeflo is lying and Nanook is his scumbuddy?

I know Im cop, but if You wont belive it, Im saying that is what woukld happen, a game over.

[Adel]

Streeflo can say the exact same thing with an equal amount of legitimacy. It doesn't help me and the other two townies make an informed and accurate decision. If you are town, please try a little harder to help us. We can't just take you at your word and hope for the best. That would be very ignorant play.

[Jalyn]

I'm a townie.

One of Streeflo/YB HAS to be scum. YB claimed a guilty result on Streeflo. YB is either telling the truth or not. If he's lying, YB is scum. If he's telling the truth, Streeflo is scum. There is no situation where both YB and Streeflo are innocent.

So, the numbers will be:

Lynch YB/Streeflo, get it right: 4:1, MNK: 3:1, VNK: 2:1, 3:0 NoVNK: 3:1
Lynch YB/Streeflo, get it wrong: 3:2, MNK: 2:2, VNK: 2:1 - because you know exactly who to vig.

YB/Streeflo - I'm seriously torn here. It seems awfully dangerous for two out of three scum to claim cop on day one. At the same time, YB hasn't been the most convincing cop. He didn't counter-claim Gaurdian, instead he attacked anyone that suggested that he was faking. Today he cleared Streeflo until I explained that his sanity had been confirmed by MeMe turning up innocent and reminded him that he had claimed an innocent result on her.


Nanook:

!

Coultn't sleep at all, so I thought I'd post. Often, ChaosOmega, new scum will just vote without saying anything, like you did. People might get suspicious of you for that (I am a wee bit); I think it's better to just say that your vote is random in the future so people don't have a reason to jump on. My 1/50 of a dollar .

Originally Guardian voted for Streeflo .. then he posted the above. Maybe it was a mistake, maybe it was planned to help him later in the game, who knows .. but the above post includes my reasoning.

12 hours before Nanook "outed" Guardian's cop breadcrumbing, he specifically quoted it as "his reasoning" even though there was no reasoning in Guardian's post. Perhaps making sure that people looked at it again, hoping that he wouldn't have to be the one that brought it up, tying him and Guardian together? Then once he realized that no one else would bring it out, he did so himself?

One FINALDIPEEDAPEEDOSEY one... (lol) I don't see any hidden Docs

... And this makes you a sad Puss n' Boots? If so, why?

If the doctor did this, that would just be total anarchy on the game. Plus, if I had noticed such a thing, I don't think I would announce that I saw it (Un-like the cop bit anyway).

Meant to add that earlier .. Meme reminded me with her vote.

This is interesting. Nanook has no problem outing a "cop" but wouldn't out a doc if he were to see one. His given reason for outing Guardian was that he was afraid everyone had seen the breadcrumbing anyway. This doesn't exactly jive with having reposted it in quote form, making it even more obvious. Then, if a doc were to do the same thing, he wouldn't be concerned with the fact that everyone would have seen it, but wouldn't expose it.

I can't say which of YB or Streeflo I believe more then the other. YB has been constant with himself being a cop, and Streeflo has been pretty quiet, but his results still sound right to me. I could see Guardian and YB doing a cop/cop gambit only because they seem to be pretty close on the site and if they're mafia I don't think they'd hesitate to perform it.

Followed by:

Also, I know that I'm not scum, and I get vibes that Streeflo isn't either, so I say go with YB, Jalyn, or CO.

in the same post! The only problem here is that I can't decide if he's trying to protect Streeflo or distance from YB...

Based on:

If Streeflo is town

I'd say it's YB. A cop would KNOW that Streeflo was guilty and wouldn't allow for an "if he comes up town" bs.

I'll go back and look at ChaosOmega shortly, but I think we're looking at Nanook + either Streeflo or YB.

[YogurtBandit]

Hmm, How about we just lynch Nanook? If He's scum, Adel Doesnt use the vig so its 2 to 1, and if Idie, Streef is scum, If Streef dies, im scum, if Adel dies, We're in trouble. But still, it is 4-2, So if we lynch Nanook scum, Its 4-1, and even if we lose a townie at night, as long Adel doesnt Vig, It is 3-1, and if we mislynch tomorrow, (Say, me) Adel Vigs the Other(Streef) UNLESS Adel is dead, Then We automatically lynch Streeflo.

SO

Day3-Lynch Nanook, 4-1
Night 3, Scum kills 3-1
Day4-With Adel Alive, We can Mis lynch and still win. With Adel dead, We lynch Streef.

Or, we can just cut the crap logic, and LYNCH NANOOK, THEN LYNCH STREEFLO!

Unvote, Vote nanookTheWolf

[Jalyn]

As promised, I went back and looked at ChaosOmega. I don't see anything in particular with his posts that trips any warning lights for me, other than outing Adel as the vig - which at least came while there was a bandwagon on him as opposed to out of the blue like the Nanook/Guardian thing.

The ChaosWagon is interesting though. Guardian and both Streeflo/YB were on that wagon - would both of his mafiamates bus him? Then again, I suppose the only other wagon in town was Guardian himself...

As to YB's last post... You claim to have a guilty result on Streeflo but now you want to lynch Nanook?

[YogurtBandit]

No, but you all belive Streef's fake claim, so lets go with Nanook.

[Streeflo]

Hmm, How about we just lynch Nanook? If He's scum, Adel Doesnt use the vig so its 2 to 1, and if Idie, Streef is scum, If Streef dies, im scum,

if Adel dies, We're in trouble.

But still, it is 4-2, So if we lynch Nanook scum, Its 4-1, and even if we lose a townie at night, as long Adel doesnt Vig, It is 3-1, and if we mislynch tomorrow, (Say, me) Adel Vigs the Other(Streef) UNLESS Adel is dead, Then We automatically lynch Streeflo.

You aren't helping. At all.

(Emphasis mine)

[Streeflo]

No, but you all belive Streef's fake claim, so lets go with Nanook.

So you're just going to ignore me and attack someone else?

I'm sure YB is scum. He was screaming at us for lynching Guardian yesterday, being unreasonable during twilight (to the point where MeMe said

What the

hell

, YB?

He declared Adel to be a rogue vigilante when the mod's first post clearly states there's only two factions. He declared that Adel wasn't really a vig when it was clear she was after no one counterclaimed.

Then today he messed up his investigation results and placed me innocent at first, until Jalyn corrected the mistake. He's inconsistent and without the cop claim, I'm sure he would have been lynched immediately.

Remember the first day when YB was outed as cop? He was outed by Guardian. Guardian was scum. Wouldn't it make so much more sense to save YB as a NK target and tell his scumbuddies he was the cop instead of revealing YB publicly? This is what I think happened. When Nanook outed Guardian, he waited for counterclaims. YB seeded his own claim during this time. When no counterclaims came up, they knew there wasn't another cop, so YB revealed himself. If one of them got lynched, it would leave the other virtually confirmed.

As for the second scum, I'll have to look into it.
Nanook and Jalyn I don't find suspicion on, and CO started becoming helpful recently.

[YogurtBandit]

WOA, I CLAIMED MYSELF!

Nanook, outed Guardian. Liar scum.

unvote, vote Streeflo

[Streeflo]

And now the fun starts...

I thought there was a possibility that YB was going to claim cop back when he suggested that there are both two docs and two cops.

There is always the possiblity of there being

2 Cops

/ 2 Docs. <snip> The chances that we have at least 1 Cop and 1 Doc are good.

I didn't want to point YB out, as Nanook pointed me out, though...
<snip>

Well, I was planning on claiming later

, but I guess I kind of did.
<snip>

Nope, I would say Guardian outed you.

[Adel]

Streeflo: Why do you think YB was protesting

after

I dropped the hammer on Guardian? It was too late for me to switch my vote.

Guardian+YB+Nanook is the scum group you believe in, right? Will you vote for Nanook if I ask you to?

Jalyn: what scum group do you believe in?
CO: same question: who do you think are the two remaining scum?

[Streeflo]

Streeflo: Why do you think YB was protesting

after

I dropped the hammer on Guardian? It was too late for me to switch my vote.

Guardian+YB+Nanook is the scum group you believe in, right? Will you vote for Nanook if I ask you to?

Cause he probably wasn't there before you did. The bandwagon on Guardian came up rather quickly after no one countered your vig claim.

I never said anything about Nanook being in the scumgroup.

As for the second scum, I'll have to look into it.
Nanook and Jalyn I don't find suspicion on, and CO started becoming helpful recently.

[ChaosOmega]

vote YogurtBandit

First off, suggesting Nanook for lynch is not a good idea. We know there is one scum between you and Streeflo. One of those two should be the lynch for today.

Secondly, you posted this:

WOA, I CLAIMED MYSELF!

Nanook, outed Guardian. Liar scum.

unvote, vote Streeflo

Uh...did you actually read what he said?

When Nanook outed Guardian, he waited for counterclaims. YB seeded his own claim during this time. When no counterclaims came up, they knew there wasn't another cop, so YB revealed himself.

He said Nanook outed Guardian. In addition, you've been acting very suspiciously in general, as other people have stated.

As for Adel's question, that answered half of it. The third scum is a toss-up between Jalyn and Nanook, but I think it's Nanook. YogurtBandit was really pushing for his lynch, he might be bussing him. If he's behind a bandwagon against scum, we'll think "Oh, he must be cop". Also, Nanook hasn't posted all that much lately. I'm not really sure though, that's pretty much a guess. I'm more concerned about getting today's lynch right, though. If we can kill scum today, that will make the game a lot easier.

[Adel]

vote: YogurtBandit