Mini 470 - Some Guys Are Trying To Kill You (done)

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

vote: soupfly

because there was a fly in my soup last night, and I'm still pissed about it.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

if i'm reaching it because i'm town and since we lost our cop we need to think harder and smarter.

I don't like this sentence. If you're trying to "play smart," shouldn't you

avoid

reaching?

I wasn't particularly suspicious of the vote itself, but soupfly's response to pressure seems a bit shady.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

unvote: soupfly

for now. I'm downgrading it to an

fos

. I still find soupfly's defensiveness mildly scummy, but my initial vote was essentially random, and the bandwagon is moving a little too fast for comfort.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

I don't know if that's enough to get me to vote for Langley (I'd like to actually

see

him post before casting a vote), but can we get a prod on him and Zakk?

An early-game -2 situation has come and gone, and we have two players who haven't even posted yet. There's something not quite right about that.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

At this point, I'm thinking it's a pretty safe bet that either Gatorguy or Soupfly are scum. Soupfly still seems overly defensive (something about playing the Newbie Card just kind of rubs me the wrong way, though I suspect it's not a reliable scumtell), but then again, he's at -2. He probably

should

be playing defense at this point, regardless of factional affiliation.

Gatorguy, on the other hand, doesn't seem to have much of a defense at all. His vote for soupfly comes across as a pretty standard OMGUS.

I'm leaning a bit more towards Gator as scum at the moment, but I'm not casting any votes until the mod and both MIA players check in.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

Maz, your vote count is incorrect. I

unvoted

in post 41 and currently do not have a vote out.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

vote: Langley

for failing to address concerns about his absense in this thread despite a presence in others, contributing

absolutely nothing

of substance upon arrival, and making what appears to be a more-or-less random vote when the game has progressed beyond that stage.

That's about the scummiest thing I've seen in this game so far. He's got some 'splaining to do.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

I really don't like Langley and Zakk's long absences followed by short, substance-lacking posts and (at least as far as I can tell) random votes.

My current vote stays on Langley, because he has the extra strike of being active in other threads while neglecting this one. A bit metagamey, perhaps, but it's suspicious.

And in the meantime,

IGMEOY Zakk

.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

Gatorguy Metagaming

I question the usefulness of metagaming Gatorguy to this extent. He's a relatively new player, so his play style is

almost certain

to change and evolve very quickly as he learns the game. There's really just not enough material there to metagame.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

Hmm, I think the group has basically split in two, with some attacking soupfly and others attacking Gatorguy

Gatorguy: Soupfly, Jenter
Soupfly: Gatorguy, erg0, Niv, Streeflo, ThaiBoxer

I'd like to point out that I'm also not really in the anti-Soupfly camp. My initial vote for him was random, and has since been changed. I do strongly suspect that either Soup or Gator are scum, but I'm actually leaning more towards Gator at this point.

So if I'm in either camp, it's the anti-Gator camp, but even that's a stretch. I'm more interested in putting pressure on the lurkers.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

I remain suspicious of Langley and Zakk, not because of their inactivity, but because of what little they have posted. Substanceless posts and apparently-random votes with no explanation and no follow up. Seems pretty scummy.

Soupfly seemed a bit scummy at first due to his evasiveness and defensiveness, but he seems more and more pro-town as the game progresses. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for now.

As for Jenter, well... I dunno. The anti-Jenter arguments kind of hold water. Criticizing lack of substance while acknowledging his own lack of substance, the possible "feigning ignorance" thing that Eroto pointed out. But I'm just not getting a scum vibe from Jenter. I can't really give an objective reason why, though I'll go back through his posts and see if I can find something.

I'm still a bit suspicious of Gatorguy. He's played pretty evasively since Page 1. I can't really criticize his current vote, as it's similar to

my

current vote, though I'd feel a little better if he elaborated a bit.

Oman's eagerness to lynch a random lurker is obviously a cause for suspicion, as is his quick reversal when he saw it wasn't going to work. But like Jenter, I'm just not getting a scum vibe. He seems to have the town's best interests at heart. Post 121 struck me as pretty damn pro-town.

If I were to change my vote right now, I think I'd have to go with Gatorguy, but I'm happy keeping it where it is at the moment.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

Looking at this it summed up to me possibly as "Jenter's Acting Really scummy but I'm pretty sure he's not scum." I don't understand. It's obvious some vibes have to occur from his scummy behavior.

His bandwagoning has also worried me a bit. He jumped on the soup bandwagon and also got off quickly.

Why He might not be scum: He's been pretty active and has not done anything close to lurking

Anaylasis: I still have an FoS on him.

Questions for Thaiboxershorts:
Why did you unvote soupfly so fast?

As I said in my previous post, I don't have a good, sound pro-Jenter argument. It's a gut feeling. And it could potentially be swayed. None of his suspicious activity is

necessarily

scummy. It could be interpreted either way.

As for soupfly, it's a mischaracterization (and a pretty blatant one at that) to say I "jumped on the soupfly bandwagon." Read Page 1 again. I was the first person to vote for soupfly (so there was no bandwagon to jump on), and it was random. After that, yeah, I expressed suspicion about Soup's behavior, but so did a lot of other people.

As for why I jumped off the bandwagon, soupfly was at -2 on Page 2, and that scared the hell out of me. This is my third game, and

both

of my first two involved very fast Day 1 lynchings of townies, so I'm a bit cautious about that kind of thing. Yes, soup was down to -3 my the time I unvoted, but I didn't catch that. Interpret it as you will, but it was a simple error on my part.

Mostly because of your accusation that I "jumped on the soupfly bandwagon" -- an outright falsehood easily debunked by re-reading Page 1 -- I'm going to go ahead and

unvote, vote gatorguy

.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

I think Thai's right that he didn't get overlybandwagony in these first pages. I too thought Thai was just jumping on and off wagons with the majority but this

This is my third game, and both of my first two involved very fast Day 1 lynchings of townies, so I'm a bit cautious about that kind of thing. Yes, soup was down to -3 my the time I unvoted, but I didn't catch that

put me at ease.

Nope, no bandwagoning from me in this entire game, and that can be backed up with cold, hard evidence. I'm actually having trouble seeing how anyone could have gotten that impression.

I have cast only three votes in this game so far:

1: Soupfly in post #14, which was random and cast before the Soupfly bandwagon even existed.

2: Langley in post #85, for reasons I believe I thoroughly and adequately explained. There was only one other vote on Langley at the time. Hardly "bandwagoning."

3: Gatorguy in post #141, for falsely accusing me of bandwagoning when I clearly haven't been. An attack based on a lie. It doesn't get much scummier than that. I doubt I'll be changing that vote, unless Gator posts something

really

good in his defense.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

Just out of curiosity, has anyone every

actually claimed

VI before? This could be a Mafia first.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

Sorry about the deny, folks. I've had a long past couple of days. Looks like nothing of much substance has happened since I've been gone, though.

For the record, I

do

think Gator is scum, so my vote will stay there unless/until somebody acts even scummier. I'm still stuck on the fact that he

lied

in order to cast suspicion on me, and I'm not at all convinced it was a mistake as he claimed. Note:

His bandwagoning has also worried me a bit. He jumped on the soup bandwagon and also got off quickly.

followed, after my response, by:

Sorry Thai, You did not Jump on the bandwagon quickly,

you jumped OFF it quickly.

My Mistake.

It was clearly not a matter of simply typing "on" instead of "off," as he seems to want to brush it off as. He was intentionally mischaracterizing my early vote, and then tried to play it down as a "mistake" when he got caught. Scummy.

I still feel the same way about Jenter. He hasn't done anything inherently scummy, just a few things that can maybe be interpreted as scummy if you stretch. But then, so has everyone who has ever played Mafia. My overall impression of Jenter is still pro-town.

Oman slipped up with his proposed "let's lynch a random lurker" strategy, but other than that he's been about the most shiningly pro-town player in this game.

Streeflo... I dunno. He hasn't really posted enough to give me an impression either way. I'd need to see a pretty strong pro- or anti- Streeflo argument before making a decision there. I don't really see how post 164 is scummy or even suspicious.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

EBWOP

Ooops... I messed up the quote tags above, but it's still fairly clear who said what. If there's any doubt, just ask and I'll clarify.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

This Niv/Gator thing. I don't think they're scum, they're just too...transparent. That said, as this game goes on, lynching for information could work, and then we have to take a guess on one of them.

That

strikes me as a bit WIFOMy, though not necessarily on

your

part.

Niv hasn't really raised much suspicion in my eyes, though Jenter raises an interesting argument for a Niv/Gator scumpairing. Not quite enough for an FOS on Niv, though. We'll see how this plays out.

I really don't like this "lynching for info" idea, and I'm not too thrilled with Oman's Day 1 vanilla claim (especially considering that Oman was in no immediate danger and no one asked). Overall, Oman seems very pro-town, but I think this behavior warrants a mild

IGMEOY

.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

Also, on reread I did miss a word. Should be "I'm

not

neccesarily claiming vanillia".

Ah, alrighty. Nevermind, then.

I'm still uneasy about lynching for info. I'd rather draw out the conversation as long as we have to, and then lynch for scum. We have a little wiggle-room before we're in LYLO, but why waste it?

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

There have been several strongly-argued pro- and anti-Jenter arguments. I won't bother to rehash them here. My bottom line is that I think Jenter is town because I think Gator is scum, and I don't think they can

both

be scum. At least, they're not both mafia. I guess it's possible that one of them is a serial killer or something.

For the record, I

do not

want Jenter to claim at this point (I don't see how that would be good for town this early in the game), but I also don't want Jenter lynched.

Jenter, do what you have to do to stay alive, but try not to do it quite yet unless you absolutely have to.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

I don't like the smell of this -2 roleclaim that no one even asked for. Several questions have been asked of Gatorguy, most of which have been ignored. But unless I missed something,

no one

requested a roleclaim.

Especially considered that Jenter survived being at -1 for several hours without claiming. Gatorguy seriously jumped the gun, and it looks very, very bad. My vote stays right where it is.

Note to mod and others

: Weekends are usually when I'm at my most active, but this my sister is getting married tomorrow, so my activity might be sparse. I may not get on at all. But I will be back.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

Plan B) Lets not do this one yet. But if Gator's mason claims,

then assuming they are really masons and not scum

, we have two confirmed townies and can re-read on that.

I don't see how we could safely make that assumption. All we would know is that we have two linked players, but nothing of their alignment.

Which actually gives me an idea. If Gator's partner claims, we still won't necessarily know their alignment and might go ahead and lynch Gator anyway. But we'll find out Gator's alignment upon his death, and can safely assume that his partner is of the same alignment, so we

will

have a confirmed townie or confirmed scum at the beginning of Round 2. And if they turn out to be masons, the other one will be effectively demoted to vanilla townie, and therefore will not be a likely nightkill target. So no matter what happens, we'll begin Day 2 with some

very

valuable information.

So yes, I think I'd like to hear from Gator's partner.

I've gone over this plan in my head a few times, and I'm pretty sure it's sound. It it's not, please let me know and explain why.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

Why? His partner would be a vanilla townie at that point. Hardly a worthwhile nightkill target.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

Eh, I don't see it. The scum would be better off firing blindly in hopes of hitting a power role, than wasting a shot on a confirmed vanilla.

Besides, the bottom line for me is that I

still

think Gator and anyone linked to him are scum.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

On second thought, I think my last post revealed a fatal flaw in my plan. It would narrow the field in which scum could fire blindly, increasing their odds of actually

hitting

a power role. Bad for town.

My plan sucks. Disregard it and carry on.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

I don't have anything to say about my plan that I haven't already said. It seemed like a good idea when I first ran it through my head, so I posted it, and then realized that it was seriously flawed, so I retracted it (note that I was the

first person

to realize that my own plan was a bad one, and said so before anyone else did, even as Oman was apparently starting to like it). Beyond that, there's really nothing more to add.

And as for this:

Okay, so moving on from my defence. TBS doesn't look good,

he has a done a bit of bandwagon hopping

, but I'm open to his defence about it.

Uh, we've already been over this. I have made only three votes so far in this game, and

none

of them have been bandwagony. The only remotely bandwagony thing I've done is jumping

off

the soupfly wagon, and that was because I incorrectly thought he was at -1 on page 2 when he was really at -2.

If you want to make an argument against me, you'll have to come up with something other than bandwagoning, because I haven't been, and nothing has changed since I proved it in an earlier post.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

Honestly -- and I hope this doesn't come off as too OMGUS -- I'm starting to develop a bit of suspicion towards Oman. Note the recent sequence of events:

-- I propose a plan which, in retrospect, I acknowledge was flawed.

-- Oman hesitates at first, but comes around to my side rather quickly.

-- I realize my plan is bad, and retract it despite Oman's positive feedback.

-- Other players recognize my plan is bad, and say so.

-- Oman

defends my plan, despite my earlier retraction of it

.

-- A few players cast suspicion on me for my (admittedly) bad plan, justifiably so.

-- Oman has a sudden change of heart and says "TBS doesn't look good."

Oman seems to be very easily swayed, even by faulty arguments, and it's beginning to smell faintly of scumminess. It's not quite bandwagon-jumping, but it might be its quieter, subtler cousin.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

I've talked about why I liked your plan earlier, the fact I was working on the idea of a Day-vig not night-vig.

...except that you expressed approval long before Jenter triggered the whole vig discussion by claiming, which makes the above statement highly misleading at best, and an outright falsehood at worst.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

I'm not ready to cast a vote yet, but in light of recent events, I think I have more reason to suspect Oman than Gatorguy. So for now,

unvote

FoS Oman

...but I'm still not joining the Gatorguy fan club.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

You think he's scum? But in that case you must believe that Jimmy is also scum.

I'm going to refrain from having an opinion on Gator/Jimmy for the time being. Jimmy doesn't strike me as particularly scummy, but I find Gator

so

scummy that it's kind of hard not to be suspicious of anyone he's linked to.

I'm just saying that in light of recent developments, I'm willing to give Gator the benefit of the doubt for now. Lynching him would be a poor tactical choice considering everything that has happened in the last few pages,. But that doesn't mean I'm letting him off the hook. I'll be keeping a close eye on him.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

I feel pretty comfortable casting a

vote

for

Oman

at this point. He's dug himself into a hole, and seems either unwilling or unable to climb out of it.

As for the one-shot vig discussion, I was under the impression that standard vigs can NK multiple times. And if Jenter was a non-standard vig, he probably would have said so. Unless Jenter tells us otherwise, I would assume he's not a one-shot.