Mini 470 - Some Guys Are Trying To Kill You (done)

[Oman]

EVERYONE UNVOTE JENTER!

This is easy to test if he is lying, we simply hit a majority and if there is no kill, its obvious.

Okay, heres my idea. If we get Jenter to kill Gator, then we have A) two confirmed innocents (Jenter and Jimmy) if he comes up town or B) one of each if he comes up scum (with Jimmy as the scum).

This way we don't waste our D1 lynch, but still get plenty of info.

Of course, if you believe Gator and Jimmy are both town...

I'm out of ideas...maybe soup or TBS? But I wouldn't wanna vig-kill anyone on a whim.

Kill: Gator

I could be wrong.

[Erotomachia]

Damn, yet another claim? So our two main choices for the Day 1 lynch were a mason and a vig? This is pretty crazy.

I know that SKs often claim vig, but I don't see any reason why a SK wouldn't use his kill N0. And we only had 1 kill N0.

[Oman]

Thats right Ero, the only reason would be to claim vig if need-be. But its illogical for an SK to play like a vig, because Jenter did not know when he would need to claim.

If he was an SK masquarading as vig, he would have claimed at first chance, to "confirm" himself.

I would rather trust Jenter here, then assume our masons are lying and our vig is lying.

No SK saves the N0 kill, its a perfect opertunity to kill without any WIFOM being played on the kill.

[Erotomachia]

I believe Gator and Jimmy because it seems like a huge risk for two scum to claim mason. I've definitely seen masons in mini-normals before; it's not that rare. Jimmy seems pretty pro-town, and Gator could very well have acted like the VI. I don't see any reason to lynch them today. If we do, then the other one gets killed N1 and we've lost two confirmed innocents.

You know, I've recently had a really strange vibe from you, Oman. You actually agreed with TBS' plan (which I thought a terrible idea), and then demanded a claim from Gator's mason partner ASAP. And now you want to kill Gator?

So...I'm very tempted to vote for Oman now. What do other people think?

[Oman]

Ero, we will not lose the other mason tonight. Scum will not hit was essentially a vanillia if they can help it. I said before, its a numbers game, and hitting a vanillia they have 0 chance of hitting a powerrole.

I think its valuable to have confirmed innocents.

Also, TBS' plan wasn't terrible, I saw the logic. I wanted a claim because I thought that Gator was merely trying out a gambit that was going south. He claimed under NO pressure and I thought he was just trying it out (in accordance with his VI past). I thought Jimmy could be covering (scumbuddy going "oh crap I need to save him") and claiming to help. By killing gator, as I said, we gain two CONFIRMED townies narrowing our votes to hit scum by 3.

I don't understand why scum would vote for plans that would increase their chance of being voted. Play the numbers. As a member of the remaining 11, three are scum, leave them in the equation.
Now we play worst case:
3/11 chance of scum gettting lynched. Kill gator (town) 3/10 chance. Jimmy confirmed, Jenter confirmed(-ish I see he could be SK, but i think vig is more likely). 3/9. They've gone from 1/4 to 1/3 with only 1 townie lost. Thats bad for the scum. If Jenter isn't scum he's dead tonight anyway, they can't afford to let him live.

Ero, if you must vote for me, can you please get me vigged instead of Lynched, I'd prefer you didn't waste D1 on a townie kill.

[Oman]

EBWOP: Best case
3/11 chance. Kill Gator (scum) 2/10 Jimmy (confirmed scum) is lynched

1 scum V 9 townies in one hit.

[Jenter Brolincani]

Of course, now I will only get one chance at vigging since I will definitely be NK'd, but better that than my ability just going wasted for the whole game.

Gator 1 (Oman)

[Jimmy R]

You bring up an interesting point, Ero. Oman seems a little too keen to lynch innocents 'for info' for my liking.

[Jimmy R]

Just to confirm, Jenter, you're claiming you win with Town as well?

[Jenter Brolincani]

Yes.

[Oman]

Okay Jimmy, I almost think you're clean, I do. But I'm just not sure on Gator or Jenter. Yes, you are confirming Gator, but maybe you're playing a really good scum game and saving someone whose playing a really bad one.

I hate to say this, but most of Gator's posts require about seven questions asked on them, we don't get the information we want out of him.

BTW, I'm not just killing innocents "for info". I'm doing it for odds. If I can bring the chance of hitting scum from 1/4 to 1/3 without losing a significant ammount of townies, I'll jump at it. NO, I don't want to mislynch. Yes, I do advocate vigging a townie if the return from their death is greater then the loss of them (nothing against gator, but I'd drop almost anyone to get those odds). A mislynch would simply waste our (wonderful so far) D1.

The mafia is at an advantage because they are the informed minority, we are the uninformed majortiy. If we can become an INFORMED majority, we are unbeatable. I am merely suggesting the first step towards it.

Otherwise, I've been fishing and all I got was two, one of which is now a mason, and the other is a vig, so I'm all out worms here.

[Oman]

I'm the biggest idiot! My plan is completely based on the idea that Jenter is a day-vig. When I thought over his claim, while he doesn't say it, he implies hes a night-vig.

Jenter can you confirm either way. Thanks

Unkill: Gator

[Oman]

Okay, rethinking. We simply assume that Jimmy and Gator are town, and I believe Jenter's vig.

So now, with all those assumptions The scum could be:
Erg0
Erotomachia
Niv
soupfly
Streeflo
ThaiBoxerShorts
Haut Boy

Hmm. Also, I did take myself off that list, because I know I'm town

Niv was protecting Gator, though working on Jenter. I think Niv is town. Ero and erg0 I don't know. Soup, not sure. Streeflo, more scummy then not, but nothing big. TBS, not sure. Neither am I with Haut...sigh!

[Streeflo]

I'm rereading, but first of all, some quick things before I get through.

TBS, YOUR PLAN WAS SO COMPLETELY HORRIBLE I'M SURPRISED NO ONE VOTED YOU.

Secondly.

NO

DON'T KILL GATOR.

Thirdly, WHY IN THE WORLD DID YOU CLAIM JIMMY?!?!?!?!

And finally, do any of you who still think Jimmy and Gator are scum buddies have ANY idea how BAD of a gambit it is to claim masons with your scum buddy? DON'T WASTE A COP INVESTIGATION ON THEM FOR PETE'S SAKE.

[Oman]

I want to know why TBS' plan was so bad.

[Oman]

Acutally, it just isn't right. I re-read it again, with my current knowledge of Jenter's night-vig status, and I realise the problems.

Sorry guys, but this is my first game with a vig, and I expected it to be a day-vig, so I'm muddled.

[Streeflo]

Alright I got through, time to make my thoughts more organized.
First of all, EBWOP: There probably won't be a point in speculating a cop investigation seeing how our cop already died. (Might be outguessing mod, but not altogether an unreasonable thought).

Plan B) Lets not do this one yet. But if Gator's mason claims,

then assuming they are really masons and not scum

, we have two confirmed townies and can re-read on that.

I don't see how we could safely make that assumption. All we would know is that we have two linked players, but nothing of their alignment.

Which actually gives me an idea. If Gator's partner claims, we still won't necessarily know their alignment and might go ahead and lynch Gator anyway. But we'll find out Gator's alignment upon his death, and can safely assume that his partner is of the same alignment, so we

will

have a confirmed townie or confirmed scum at the beginning of Round 2. And if they turn out to be masons, the other one will be effectively demoted to vanilla townie, and therefore will not be a likely nightkill target. So no matter what happens, we'll begin Day 2 with some

very

valuable information.

So yes, I think I'd like to hear from Gator's partner.

I've gone over this plan in my head a few times, and I'm pretty sure it's sound. It it's not, please let me know and explain why.

NO! This is a HORRIBLE IDEA! Gator's partner needs to STAY QUIET and not make himself a NK target. Confirmed townies are EXTREMELY valuable in the endgame. If one of the masons died, their posts will have obvious links to each other. Masons don't vote for each other for example. There is no need for someone to claim a mason buddy.

I went over the numbers an you're right. If they hit the mason, they have a 0 chance of hitting a powerrole. Hit any other and its 1/7 or 2/7 depending on number of powerroles left.

I'd like to hear the mason claim ASAP from his partner.

NO! DON'T OUT ANOTHER POWERROLE WHEN IT'S NOT NECESSARY!

I don't know if this is a good idea

or not but I'm gonna take the plunge, because people are focusing their attention in the wrong places.

It wasn't.

EVERYONE UNVOTE JENTER!

This is easy to test if he is lying, we simply hit a majority and if there is no kill, its obvious.

Okay, heres my idea. If we get Jenter to kill Gator, then we have A) two confirmed innocents (Jenter and Jimmy) if he comes up town or B) one of each if he comes up scum (with Jimmy as the scum).

This way we don't waste our D1 lynch, but still get plenty of info.

Of course, if you believe Gator and Jimmy are both town...

I'm out of ideas...maybe soup or TBS? But I wouldn't wanna vig-kill anyone on a whim.

Kill: Gator

I could be wrong.

No! Why would you want to kill gator? If he was scum mason-claiming with Jimmy, scum has just dug their own grave. It's such a ridiculous gambit it's not even worth thinking about.

TBS, a confirmed vanilla is a huge asset. I think you deserve a FOS just for that plan of yours.

I believe Gator, so I'll

unvote

. I'm ready to vote for Jenter. He's at L-2 now...does everyone else agree that he's the plan for today?

YES! A logical post! QFT

I believe Gator and Jimmy because it seems like a huge risk for two scum to claim mason. I've definitely seen masons in mini-normals before; it's not that rare. Jimmy seems pretty pro-town, and Gator could very well have acted like the VI. I don't see any reason to lynch them today. If we do, then the other one gets killed N1 and we've lost two confirmed innocents.

You know, I've recently had a really strange vibe from you, Oman. You actually agreed with TBS' plan (which I thought a terrible idea), and then demanded a claim from Gator's mason partner ASAP. And now you want to kill Gator?

So...I'm very tempted to vote for Oman now. What do other people think?

YES! ANOTHER SANE POST! QFT

Ero, if you must vote for me, can you please get me vigged instead of Lynched,

I'd prefer you didn't waste D1 on a townie kill.

I sincerely hope that wasn't a claim with 0 votes on you...

I'm the biggest idiot! My plan is completely based on the idea that Jenter is a day-vig. When I thought over his claim, while he doesn't say it, he implies hes a night-vig.

Jenter can you confirm either way. Thanks

Unkill: Gator

Oh dear. That could explain a bunch of things.

Summary:
TBS came up with the most remarkably bad idea I've seen in a while, but later took it back by saying "Disregard my plan" although not necessarily for all the right reasons, but he gets points for that. Jimmy should not have claimed, but no use crying over spilt milk.

TBS and Oman is looking pretty bad to me right now. Both of them were rolefishing, and advocated a mason buddy claiming.

Oh yea, and erotomachia = town.

Vote: Oman
HoS: TBS

[Oman]

I don't understand why Jimmy should not have claimed? I definatly was NOT believing Gator's claim.

What do you mean a claim with 0 votes on me? Claiming that I'm town aligned. I use the word townie to signify anyone who is on the towns side, in fact

[colour=blue]Khelvaster, Townie Cop, slain the first night[/color

That's from Maz's first post, townie is an allignment, not a role.

While you're voting for me, I don't think you're scum, I think you're overwhelmed atm (what with the caps and all ). I am ready to defend myself against any accusation you throw at me. For now:

Were rolefishing, and advocated a mason buddy claiming

. Gator claimed and starting this whole roleclaim thing. After Gator claimed Jenter looked really bad, he claimed mostly off his own bat. Yes I advocated a mason buddy claiming, but there is no way, after Gator's previous play. I was ready to believe it.

[Jimmy R]

Yeah, I didn't want to claim and I realise it leaves me open to NK but it was a last ditch attempt to stop folks from lynching Gator so I felt I had to. Still hoping we have a Doc in the game.

Valid points re: Oman and TBS. Going to have a re-read now. TBS, do you have anythiing to say about this?

[Oman]

Okay, so moving on from my defence. TBS doesn't look good, he has a done a bit of bandwagon hopping, but I'm open to his defence about it.

People I think are townies:
Ero, he's been looking around, he's definatly alert. I think he's honestly trying to find scum

Streeflo, that last post looks good to me. Its not conclusive, but I'd be willing to beleive you are town atm.

Haut, not much on him, but no suspicion as of yet.

Scum trio:
Maybe Erg0, TBS, soup. I don't know.

I think soup did a bit of role-hunting early on questioning Gator's motives for keeping his place (turns out he was right).

Oh yeah, and don't worry about that cop investigation Streeflo.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

I don't have anything to say about my plan that I haven't already said. It seemed like a good idea when I first ran it through my head, so I posted it, and then realized that it was seriously flawed, so I retracted it (note that I was the

first person

to realize that my own plan was a bad one, and said so before anyone else did, even as Oman was apparently starting to like it). Beyond that, there's really nothing more to add.

And as for this:

Okay, so moving on from my defence. TBS doesn't look good,

he has a done a bit of bandwagon hopping

, but I'm open to his defence about it.

Uh, we've already been over this. I have made only three votes so far in this game, and

none

of them have been bandwagony. The only remotely bandwagony thing I've done is jumping

off

the soupfly wagon, and that was because I incorrectly thought he was at -1 on page 2 when he was really at -2.

If you want to make an argument against me, you'll have to come up with something other than bandwagoning, because I haven't been, and nothing has changed since I proved it in an earlier post.

[Oman]

I know Thai, we have gone over it. Thats what I mean by I'm open to his defence. I meant your previous defence on the topic.

You did jump off the wagons quickly, which was the point we made earlier that was never really addressed.

and nothing has changed since I proved it in an earlier post.

See above. Open to his defence = accepted previous explaination.

[ThaiBoxerShorts]

Honestly -- and I hope this doesn't come off as too OMGUS -- I'm starting to develop a bit of suspicion towards Oman. Note the recent sequence of events:

-- I propose a plan which, in retrospect, I acknowledge was flawed.

-- Oman hesitates at first, but comes around to my side rather quickly.

-- I realize my plan is bad, and retract it despite Oman's positive feedback.

-- Other players recognize my plan is bad, and say so.

-- Oman

defends my plan, despite my earlier retraction of it

.

-- A few players cast suspicion on me for my (admittedly) bad plan, justifiably so.

-- Oman has a sudden change of heart and says "TBS doesn't look good."

Oman seems to be very easily swayed, even by faulty arguments, and it's beginning to smell faintly of scumminess. It's not quite bandwagon-jumping, but it might be its quieter, subtler cousin.

[Oman]

I accept that is the course of events. If you look through the thread earlier (IIRC) I have said that you weren't especially townish in my mind.

I am not swayed by faulty arguments, but I tend to see the value in things before I see the..um...un-value. I've talked about why I liked your plan earlier, the fact I was working on the idea of a Day-vig not night-vig.

I don't think your scummy because of that plan, because you retracted it before anyone else, I think you're scummy because of a proccess of elimination. You're one of the ones I don't feel are especially town.

[Streeflo]

Yeah, I didn't want to claim and I realise it leaves me open to NK but it was a last ditch attempt to stop folks from lynching Gator so I felt I had to. Still hoping we have a Doc in the game.

Valid points re: Oman and TBS. Going to have a re-read now. TBS, do you have anythiing to say about this?

I'll answer Oman's thing here too. The true power of a mason is confirming another townie. I understand that when Gator claimed there was still suspicion, but there was no real need for the

other

mason to claim unless Gator was on the

verge

of being lynched (which he wasn't because I unvoted almost immediately).

I'm pretty familiar with the mason claiming thing, as I was a mason under a lot of pressure in Mini 428: Sicilian Mafia. However, it was the masons that won the game in the endgame. It's better for the other partner not to claim, because when it comes down to it, a person can find the partner from interactions during the day. Endgame masons are a nasty surprise for scum, but outting masons gives scum a higher chance to hit powerroles.

Honestly -- and I hope this doesn't come off as too OMGUS--

Faintly.