Mini 470 - Some Guys Are Trying To Kill You (done)

[soupfly]

vote: gatorguy91

we just lost our cop on the first night. why you so anxious to hold onto your place in the game despite being gone for 5-7 days?

[soupfly]

niv, that's the worst logic i've ever heard. i'm the first person to actually do something outside of random guessing. if i'm reaching it because i'm town and since we lost our cop we need to think harder and smarter. jumping on me for suggesting that someone insisting they remain in the game when they're gone a long time (despite odds against their side) is a fair point of suspicion.

you calling me out is even more so

FOS: Niv

[soupfly]

i guess you can interpret it that way, actually anything i say can be interpreted one way or the other.

but considering that town just lost their cop i would think that mafia would be laying really really low at the moment. no need for them to take risks.

quote="Niv"]OMGUS much. i am not saying it is not suspicious, i am saying it is pointless to plave a vote on someone, try to start a wagon against someone who wont respond. also, he may have a legit reason he dosent want to disclose, or something he told the mod. again what good is a vote on someone who wont respond anyway, bc he isnt here? however, do think you have something to stand up for, so i will now, with that responce

Vote Soupfly

[/quote]

i don't believe i ever started a wagon against someone. all i did was make an educated choice (rather than random voting) based on what i've read so far. to me someone who is gone 5-7 days (especially at the beginning of a game) should be replaced because you can't have 12 people waiting around for one to post. the fact that he wants to keep his spot could indicate that he holds a favorable position. very logical if you think about it and its not like i'm casting the final vote to lynch.

now why are you trying to twist my words?

[soupfly]

what people discuss with the mod via PM is their business. what people post on this thread is open for interpretation. there was nothing illogical or dumb about my analysis despite what others may say to the contrary.

and quite frankly i don't know why i have to keep justifying this. i'm not casting the deciding vote nor am i trying to convince anybody that gator is guilty.

[soupfly]

unvote: gator

FOS: gator, niv

[soupfly]

hmm, 4 votes for soupfly on page two: thai boxer shorts, niv, erg0

and this based on:
-my logical analysis of something posted on the thread.
-a questionable scum tell. town IS at an early disadvantage because of lost cop. that is a fact.

its funny cause i'm among the only people who has been posting trying to get discussion going which is pro-town. if i were mafia i'd be laying low like most of the people on here.

Vote: Soupfly

I'm back, and I have the philosophy of jumping on the earliest scummy thing i see (Romanus taught me that ) so soupfly gets my attention. You were way to upset about the cop kill, a cop wouldn't have been that much help, he has a 3/12 or 4/12 chance of hitting scum and a 1/9 or 1/8 chance of being NKed night 0(wait...how many scum are in here, do we know?)

"way too upset"...where? I missed that part. cop not important? incidentally the cop investigated a bad guy but got killed before he could play. i'll leave it up to you guys to decide how impt/unimpt the cop is in these games.

if you're gonna vote against me then at least find a better reason. vote #4 for someone on middle of pg2 is not very town friendly.

/sigh

[soupfly]

its funny cause i'm among the only people who has been posting trying to get discussion going which is pro-town. if i were mafia i'd be laying low like most of the people on here.

I have a personal dislike of wifom arguements. i hate them even more if they are writen as though they are supposed to help. and this one includes metagaming, even worse metagaming youself. something i also hate. as for the moment, i firmly you are the best place to have a vote early game. soup, my vote remains on you.

you seem fairly intent on lynching me. it seems that your argument is no better than the metagaming accusations you're throwing my way. either you're reaching for reasons to get people to lynch me or you're just over-over-over-meta-analyzing.

fact is that the only thing that i've done so far is to try and get a discussion going. i've neither tried to get a lynch mob going against anyone nor have i lurked like half the people in this game.

[soupfly]

My Defense is that Soupfly had no evidence to Go on and just decided to say i was
scum. I saw that as dumb, and stated as so, and that's scummy? Then Again, What's not scummy theese days?

A little bit of anaylasis:

Soupfly is obviously eager to point his finger at someone, however he seems to be playing not too well. I'll keep my FoS on him.

evidence? wrong game. whatever you post is interpretable and so far you've made no attempt to explain why you tried to get a 5-7 day leave of absence at the beginning of the game. people who don't post for 48 hours are usually replaced (if i'm not mistaken as i'm still new to this) yet you wanted to start off a game by taking a 120-168 hour leave of absence. you could have written to the mod directly or you could have posted that if you don't post in the next couple of days then to replace you.

i don't think that what you wrote is a definitive sign of guilt nor do i consider a non-random vote (legitimate vote as you call it) to be proof of intent to lead a lynching. however aside from calling me dumb you've done nothing to address the initial suspicion.

[soupfly]

if i were mafia

stupid phrase...really stupid. Aside from the whole WIFOM argument, it’s also pointless.

okay, just figured out what WIFOM means. guess i should stop doing that. bah, stupid newb.

incidentally the cop investigated a bad guy but got killed before he could play

Did I miss this somewhere?

khelvaster posted that he'd investigated a godfather before he got killed. mod edited it out. hence you'll see jenter's question right after khelvaster's post.

[soupfly]

wish more people would post.

having a particularly boring day at work. the good news is that i've had a chance to troll through the forum and get some pointers on how game is played.

I still would like some clarification on metagaming...anybody got a good definition/examples?

[soupfly]

in the spirit of Sherlock Holmes sleuthing

Erotomachia-style

...

i'm similarly curious how gatorguy is posting in other threads today (friday), but has made only feeble attempts to respond to accusations against him in this game:

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... &start=225
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 3&start=50

also, if he posts here on sunday that he'll be gone for the next 5-7 days then why does he sign up for another mafia game on the same day?
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... start=1625

care to answer these gatorguy?

@niv, after looking through the site yesterday, i understand your suspicion of me vis-a-vis my argumentation style (WIFOM/metagaming). in my defense this is my second game so i'm still learning.

[soupfly]

are you sure that what you see is eagerness to lynch? i'm not sure he's guilty but what i do want is some some satisfactory answers from him.

regarding how games start, on my first game i got kicked after not responding for 24 hours after receiving PM from mod to confirm. so what you wrote is not always the case.

btw, do you always change your votes so quickly? seems like your votes are only meant to get people to respond cause you constantly change em. good tactic but if you do it too much it loses its value.

[soupfly]

four votes against me: niv, ergo, oman, gatorguy.

didn't realize we were in such a hurry.

@oman, why you defending him? i thought you were for putting pressure on people and seeing how they respond. why not just let him answer my accusations (even if they are feeble as you claim) and take it from there. town has nothing to lose by getting people to post. and what exactly do you mean by me trying to

"get Gator in trouble...i.e. you want the heat on him"?

isn't that the whole point of what we're doing here? on the one hand you say that you like to put pressure on people on pages 2-3 and then you come out and vote against me for doing the same to gator. not really sure I follow you reasoning here.

@gator, still not convinced by your posts. what exactly does

"i wanted to post after lots of activity so i wouldn't have nothing to say, really"

mean? its almost like you can't be bothered to participate which is not very town friendly in my opinion. also, talking me to L-2 for an OMGUS vote isn't very good play for town. if you think i'm guilty then come out and say why. i've certainly posted enough on here for you to be able to construct an argument.

[soupfly]

i unvote gatorguy91 in post 35 so i'm also without a vote. to update the mod's list based on these two changes would seem to make the total:

Soupfly (3): Oman, Erg0, Niv
Gatorguy (1): Jenter
Langley (1): Erotomachia

Not Voting (6): Gatorguy, Soupfly, Zakk_status, Langley, Streetflo, ThaiBoxerShorts

[soupfly]

gator is certainly suspicious in my eyes, not because of what he posted originally but because of his responses since then.

if i'm not mistaken, oman, this is the same behavior that got him lynched on day one in your other game...incidentally he was mafia in that game. not sure this is relevant but you mentioned that he's acting differently than in the other game...seems to me he's behaving the same. care to comment?

[soupfly]

np, weekends are tough for me also. weekdays, unfortunately (or fortunately maybe), i got plenty of time to post.

[soupfly]

ah, a fresh week at work! time to play some mafia.

seems to me that there aren't any really good candidates for lynching yet. some suspicion of gator (terrible posting) and oman (lynching inactives not a good idea at this point), but not enough to drop the hammer.

1) I think its way too early for a lynch. Even if its not going to be clear who to lynch in Day 1, the extended dialog will greatly help for later in the game.

2) We need way more posting by some of the players. If they can't/won't then replace them.

[soupfly]

the one thing i'm not liking is that suspicion seems to be falling on those who are most active in posting. i wasn't active during the weekend and suspicion seems to have died down on me. oman was active and is now feeling the heat. bottom line is the more you post the more likely you are going to be to write something that draws suspicion. i'd like to see some heat on the casual posters: those who post enough to not be considered lurkers, but not enough to draw suspicion. we seem to have a few who do nothing but jump on and off bandwagons as their only form of contribution.

regarding who is guilty, not really sure i can say yet. i'm finding it easier to form an opinion on who i think is townie at the moment.

[soupfly]

lurkers is not the same thing as inactives.

lurkers post as little as possible to not draw attention

inactives just don't post cause they doing other stuff

[soupfly]

inactives should be replaces. if a lurker takes it so far that he's close to be being replaces then my bad fly FOS will be on him.

[soupfly]

Thoughts so far.

Gator: He's either scum or the VI(http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5634). He's not very logical or thoughtful in his posts. Doesn't add any value to the discussion. I'd like to give him a chance to help us form a better opinion of him by posting more (and with great substance) starting right now.

Oman: suspicion of him linked to Gator, but if we go down that path Gator would be first to go which would then shed some light on Oman. No reason to do it other way around.

ThaiBoxerShorts: mild suspicion. He's posting enough to appear active but doing everything possible to blend in and not rock the boat. Just a gut feeling ATM and certainly not grounds for a lynching but will keep an eye on him.

Jenter: leaning towards thinking he not-scummy, although i also found it a bit odd how he agreed with me during the early part of the game when it looked like i'd be the first lynch (albeit due to my poor play). if he wanted to stave an early lynch he could have just posted that but rather he agreed (though i wouldn't say defended) with me.

townie vibes: niv, erotomachia

no opinion yet: Erg0, langley, zach_status, streetflo (gone under the radar again)

[soupfly]

not sure i'm buying gator's post (though i do appreciate the effort). seems like a forced homework assignment to me.

my suspicion (if you can call it that) of thai is not because of his voting for me (or others) per se, but rather because of the extremely safe route he has chosen so far. just a gut feeling ATM.

can we have a vote count?

[soupfly]

Thoughts so far.

Gator: He's either scum or the VI(http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5634). He's not very logical or thoughtful in his posts. Doesn't add any value to the discussion. I'd like to give him a chance to help us form a better opinion of him by posting more (and with great substance) starting right now.

regarding gator claiming to be VI, just so you know i had earlier called him out as being either VI or scum.

regarding lynching the VI, i don't think its a good play. vote for gator if you think he's mafia, not because of play style.

let's not lynch anybody until we hear more from the missing two players.

[soupfly]

5. Mainly I'm defending Gator cause I've played with him when he was scum (subconscious metagaming) and this didn't smell the same.

gator is certainly suspicious in my eyes, not because of what he posted originally but because of his responses since then.

if i'm not mistaken, oman, this is the same behavior that got him lynched on day one in your other game...incidentally he was mafia in that game. not sure this is relevant but you mentioned that he's acting differently than in the other game...seems to me he's behaving the same. care to comment?

Gatorguy Metagaming

Same:

Begins with a jokey Random vote.
Ergo: “It's interesting that Gatorguy just unvoted as soon as he came under a little bit of pressure.” Gator did that in the previous game too.

Different:

Lurked heavily on the other, like...didn’t post.
Had 0, seriously zero, content in his posts other game. Post 45 was rather heavy in content for him.
VisMajor said it well “he does what I call "nonissueposting and agreeposting" Basically he either posts only to say nothing, or to say how much he agrees with other people.”
Didn’t even attempt to defend himself, said he wasn’t interested in doing it.

Note:

This is metagaming, its soooo not definative.

Whats bad about it? That after Gator claims VI I vote for him. The reason I did that is he made exactly the same claim when I played with him earlier (I don't like to metagame, but this is involuntary). To say that you're either useless or scum is bad mojo. The only thing I can see that explains that, Niv, is that you're saying Gator has given me the okay to bus him....(??)

wavering a bit in your recollection of how Gator played in the last game? first you say he's playing differently...then you say he's playing the same and deserves a vote. also, don't think gator really made that claim (VI) during that game...he just said he was 14.

i'm starting to see some inconsistencies in your argumentation...

[soupfly]

i'm not really metagaming here cause i'm not looking at Gator's play, but rather inconsistencies in what you wrote in this thread regarding Gator's play. Gator's play hasn't changed much (during this game) except that he's posting more. He's been playing like the VI since page 1.

plus, if you're against metagaming then why vote for Gator because, as you claim, he also played the VI card in the other game? you can't subconsciously do something and then post that you're doing it subconsciously...that's also a contradiction.

[soupfly]

Well, everything that Jenter wrote is pretty sound IMO. I think that in large part the Jenter bandwagon is fabricated and those voting for him certainly look suspicious in my eyes. It may be that he's scum but not based on the arguments presented so far.

I'm leaning towards a Gator vote at the moment.

Still not much of a feel on Streetflo, Haut Boy or Jimmy R. Thai is off of my suspicion list as he's really not done anything scummy yet.

[soupfly]

Well, everything that Jenter wrote is pretty sound IMO. I think that in large part the Jenter bandwagon is fabricated and those voting for him certainly look suspicious in my eyes. It may be that he's scum but not based on the arguments presented so far.

I did a quick reread of the thread and something jumped out at me. Early on I got a lot of heat for what was really not a horrible attempt at identifying a page 1 tell. To recap, I questioned why Gator would insist on keeping his role if he was gonna be gone nearly a week. The way I saw it is that a vanilla townie wouldn't be as eager to hold their place as a power role would. Since cop was dead already it seemed like a plausible early stage tell. This is pretty logical thinking in my opinion and not a bad way to get the game started. Instead what happened is I start getting attacked. All of a sudden I found myself under a lot of heat from people questioning my logic and interpreting everything I was saying/doing as being scummy. At first I thought it was my fault for not playing well but the truth is that in large part people were jumping on any little thing they could to make me out to look guilty.

Anyways, I did a little analysis of the Jenter bandwagon and found much of the same thing to be happening. Alot of the arguments against him are not really logical and get reinforced through the "mob mentality" of voting cause others claim someone is acting scummy. On further analysis its again the trio of Gator, Niv and Oman who are leading the charge against Jenter as they did against me in the early part of the game. Gator's play has been the most suspicious so far as we've outlined in numerous posts. While this is not enough for me to vote for him (since he may just be the VI) Niv and Oman have repeatedly defended Gator's actions which further adds to my suspicions of why they're so intent on standing up for him. The final straw is the realization that its the same group that earlier tried to get me lynched:

page 3 situation with soupfly lynch mob

four votes against me:

niv

, ergo,

oman

,

gatorguy

.

didn't realize we were in such a hurry.

@oman, why you defending him? i thought you were for putting pressure on people and seeing how they respond. why not just let him answer my accusations (even if they are feeble as you claim) and take it from there. town has nothing to lose by getting people to post. and what exactly do you mean by me trying to

"get Gator in trouble...i.e. you want the heat on him"?

isn't that the whole point of what we're doing here? on the one hand you say that you like to put pressure on people on pages 2-3 and then you come out and vote against me for doing the same to gator. not really sure I follow you reasoning here.

@gator, still not convinced by your posts. what exactly does

"i wanted to post after lots of activity so i wouldn't have nothing to say, really"

mean? its almost like you can't be bothered to participate which is not very town friendly in my opinion. also, talking me to L-2 for an OMGUS vote isn't very good play for town. if you think i'm guilty then come out and say why. i've certainly posted enough on here for you to be able to construct an argument.

page 10 situation with Jenter lynch mob

Vote Count:
Jenter Brolincani:

Gatorguy91

, Jimmy R,

Niv

,

Oman

soupfly: Haut Boy~♥
Gatorguy91: Jenter Brolincani, ThaiBoxerShorts

Not Voting: Erg0, Erotomachia, soupfly, Streeflo

I'm not convinced about Oman yet but i can't get over his constant defense of Gator (intentional or non-intentional) scum play. Niv is looking extremely scummy at the moment.

Vote=Gator

I urge all of you to do a full read through of the entire thread and decide for yourself. For me

Vote=Gator

[soupfly]

EBWOP

Sorry, meant to click the preview button...post was not finished. did not mean to have vote=gator twice because I am not trying to pressure others to lynch.

My final point is that i want others to do a read through and decide for themselves what they think:

*Are the two attempts to lynch myself and jenter justified?
*Is it just a coincidence that Niv, Oman and Gator have again gotten somebody to L-2?
*Has Gator acted sufficiently scummy to warrant the suspicion of others?
*Is it suspicious that Niv and Oman have defended Gator on multiple occasions?

If my analysis is faulty then point it out...especially curious to hear from those I'm not suspicious of ATM.

[soupfly]

Soupfly makes some interesting points, but in my eyes, the points he makes suggest that those three (Gator, Niv, Oman) are acting very pro-town. It could easily be a bluff but at the moment, I'm thinking they're probably not scum.

care to make an attempt at telling us what exactly about gator,niv,oman makes em protown?

Which means my suspicion still falls on Jenter. I'm also kind of getting the feeling that Soupfly is trying to deflect some attention away from Jenter and on to Gator.

Keeping my vote where it is for now.

you get the feeling???? did you read my post? that's exactly what i'm saying. let me say it again so that its clear for you:

-Gator/Niv look very scummy ATM. FOS on Oman.
-I do not see any valid reasons to lynch Jenter. It is a mistake to lynch based on current arguments.

The whole case against Gator seemed to stem from the fact that he was going away and didn't want to be replaced. That's a nothing reason, I wouldn't want to be replaced either, no matter what role I was playing. OK, so its moved on a little from that reason, but the whole thing has its base there and I just don't agree with it.

You're wrong on this and I encourage you to look through the early part as you weren't here to get a feel of the flow. The real issue isn't that Gator was going away but what transpired since then. Did you read any of my post (251,252)? Or of Jenter's?

What is conspicuous by absence at the moment is a real solid case against Jenter. Read Niv's post (#209). If we were using those reasons to lynch people then I can make a case for nearly everyone in this game to be scum. I just don't understand how a townie, in good conscience, would take a player to L-2 without any real motivation? Can somebody please give me a logical explanation?

I would urge those who haven't yet voted to read through and think about it, it should be pretty clear. Especially after the developments over the last couple of pages.

@Jimmy, next time you want to post a thoughtful reply please bother reading the thread. there's no point to this game if you just skim the posts.

[soupfly]

A loooong, winding, rambling post does not = more thought put into it. You end up waffling on, moving from point to point and not making any sense. Hence the reason why I haven't fully deconstructed Jenters PBPA, it's such a mess of rambling and vague accusations.

I may be new to mafia but I'm a professional analyst and am quite good at it...Jenter makes a good analysis actually. He does an excellent job of integrating his argument within the flow of the game to make a point. He might be fooling me because he's very good at this game and i'm very inexperienced but if we go by classical analysis, his points are sound. Do a careful reread of what he writes (and my posts 251,2) after rereading the thread and you'll see that its not rambling (though i can see how some would get frustrated with his damn formatting). If you don't buy his logic then fine, but you need to grasp it to be able to make an informed decision.

unvote: Gator

There's still suspicion here but Niv is a more logical play here. Leaning towards a Niv vote ATM.

A quick question for you all: is defending the VI something a townie would do? By VI i mean a player who you aren't sure if they are a bad town player or a newb mafia.

From what I've read the VI is:
-fairly unreadable
-likely to get lynched early in game

As a townie, would you associate your reputation with the town with this player?

[soupfly]

At the moment, we've only really got 6 people who have posted recently,( which leaves the very real possibility that none of the Mafia are even active at the moment) so it's difficult for us to get anywhere without the others coming in with their views.

Agreed. Think we need a ceasefire until we get to know some of the other guys a little better. Not ready to put anybody down just yet.

[soupfly]

@Huat Boy - You just put somebody at L-1 with your second post. Most anti-town thing i've seen in 12 pages...

[soupfly]

My Thoughts

Personally I'm not sure if Jenter is guilty or not. What I do have a big problem is Niv. I mentioned before that his case against Jenter was bogus and after rereading it (since Niv pushed for a response from Jenter on it), I felt the need to point out why I think its the most illogical/forced argument I've read in a long time.

This worries me far more than anything that anybody has done.

Here's Niv's case against Jenter:

Um, so, avoiding gator. next in my scum books is jenter brocanti. she has been posting litle content all game, she is called out on and mentions it herself, then she says it will change. from that point she has posted little content.

i hate lurking it doen't fly. i would like to ask for a

mod pro on Jenter Brolincani.

her last post was on the 19th

This was posted on the 20th (post # 209). Jenter's post before this (187) was -> Posted: Fri Jul 20, 2007 11:19 pm Post subject: 187. So what you wrote is not true. Also, in the span between 187-209, there are other players who didn't check in with a post...including gator. Where's the prod on them?

also, i belive the posts where she was around warrents a

vote Jenter Brolincani

PBPA of jen:

Vote; Streeflo

Because I feel like it.

for completeness

makes no sense.

I see soup's reasoning on this...

little help, little logic

I'd already logically made a case for why I had suspicion on this. If he agrees with my reasoning does he have to repeat what I had already written? Again Niv is grasping.

Yeah, sorry, I'll post something wednesday as I'm busy at the moment.

first apoplogy. has little time to post a real responce, but has time to check the thread. a real responce can be short ans take less than 5 min btw

Hmm...pot meet kettle? Let's revisit some of Niv's posts:

not much time right now, will post something later

real busy, be back later

still busy at work, will post at 4pm pst today

Seems to me that sometimes Niv also doesn't have time to post "real" responses. I thought Niv had a problem with hypocracy...

FoS; Gator

for not defending himself properly and just calling fly's question dumb.

no content again, on the day supposed content was to come as well. whats up?

There is content in the post if you take it in context (which is not something you are apt to do). Gator didn't address the issue in his post...just called the suspicion dumb. Not addressing accusations is scummy.

I believe metagamig is using examples of how people have played a scum or town in other games in arguments about how they are playing now.

defines metagaming. thank you....

Not sure why this is here except to make his argument seem bigger than it is. I guess Niv feels that a longer argument is better than a logical one.

Just because you don't like style doesn't mean it deserves a vote.

umm.... still saying that you play like something as scum is an excuse for you to change playstyle around to avoid target. i play like tus as town, so i am playing like thus intentensionally to throw people off. all wifom, all bad.

Again, Mr. Pot meet Mr. Kettle. Niv resorting to WIFOM to to make a case against Jenter's WIFOM. I though Niv couldn't stand these:

I have a personal dislike of wifom arguements. i hate them even more if they are writen as though they are supposed to help.

Second instance of hypocrisy.

Gator's lurking in plain sight, he's posting no content at all (OK, i'm not either and I'm sorry about that) and Oman is defending him too much. I would say that a Gator Lynch (or at least putting pressure on Gator) would tell us a lot in terms of how the other players are playing with regards to him.

Vote; Gator

well, lurkes mentioning that they are lurking and then calling out a lurker. total hypocracy. and says that she will start posting content. and never does

First off, if hypocricy was such a big deal for Niv then how come he's over looked Oman's multiple (acknowledged by him) instances of contradicting himself in this thread?

Second, I just pointed out two instances of hypocrisy by Niv in this thread. I guess that makes Niv twice as guilty as the other hypocrits.

Third, Jenter has posted quite alot in the last few pages and addressed the lurker tag that was an issue for some.

@Niv; I've apologised. Sorry. I even said 'I apologise' when writing the vote post.

Oman, feel any need to tell us about your CONSTANT defnse of Gator right through the last 2 pages?

in heindseight, your appology dosent help unless you change

makes no sense. if this was a prod to get him to post more then fine but its not an argument for his guilt. btw, when's the last time gator posted?

I do't think I've

directly

defended soup once yet this game, have I?

I see soup's reasoning on this...

QFT

Well blatent lie.

there's a word in there that you're not reading so i highlighted it for you: directly. read through what he wrote and you'll see he never comes out to directly defend me.

I see soup's reasoning on this...

FoS; Gator for not defending himself properly and just calling fly's question dumb.

Just because you don't like style doesn't mean it deserves a vote.

First: he agrees with my reasoning
Second: disagrees with Gator's response to my suspicion
Third: Disagreeing with Niv's assertion that WIFOM is a scum tell. I don't know enough about this game to say if it is or isn't but it seems that its a fair point to debate.

Argumenting based on semantics is not good play.

Having said this I can see how one can interpret these as defending me (soup), but to call what he says a blatant lie is not the case. Its interpretable and if people want to call it defending then so be it.

I am attacking Gator because he looks scummy. Because his scumtells so far were in his lack of replying to Soup is neither here nor there, if you'd been attacking Gator and the same thing had happened i would have done the same most likely.

In general, I was worried about an early attempt to chuck soupfly in the pit without enough discussion and the fact that gator was in essence posting random cobblers which was generally without reasoning, sorry if it looked like I was overdefending him at times.

so you admit you were defending soup, change much. also, overe defending soup. it is all you had posted in way of ering to content all game

Fair point. Overdefending can be interpreted as Jenter acknowledging that he was in fact defending me...its the "over" that gives it away.

Of the active members, Gator does look rather bad, but since Streeflo, Erg0, Langley, and Zakk don't even seem to be playing, and Erotomachia isn't really posting enough, I'm at a loss as to a reasonable anaysis of all the players.

Jenter states that he cant read people beacuse of the lack of posting. just beacuse some arn't posting, you still can get a read on those that are. its not that hard even if we arn;t interacting with everyone

???? Total nonesense. Jenter writes that he's "at a loss as to a reasonable analysis of

all

the players." He's not saying he can't read the active players. Again Niv looking for filler in his "longer is better" style of analysis.

Gator's lurking in plain sight, he's posting no content at all (OK, i'm not either and I'm sorry about that) and Oman is defending him too much. I would say that a Gator Lynch (or at least putting pressure on Gator) would tell us a lot in terms of how the other players are playing with regards to him.

You apologised twice for not posting much content. then you continue pressuring people who arn't posting too much, then, you add little content to the disscussion in your posts. add to that that you arn't posting much and i see hypocracy

also, in mafia and real life. appologies don't wourk unless you stop commiting the same crime

QFT

You already quoted this above!!!!!!!!! Why are you quoting it again? Yet again Jenter looking to beef up his case with nothing of value.

I need to do a read through really.

Gator has points against him but no more really than are against me. I believe replacements or at least prods are in order as I only have reasonable reads on Gator (probably the VI or scum), Soup(fine), Oman(aggressive town, good) and Niv(again probably fine although I'm not so sure). 5/9 is not good when you only have 2 scum.

If I had to lynch I'd say Gator as there's more to analyse (his reactions with soup early on, Niv being somewhat anti-soup then, and so on).

advocates lynching someone to gague reactions, which, in a mini is never good, losing anyone with out good proof.

What? He's not pushing for a lynch. Read what he wrote. He states "If I had to lynch I'd say Gator".

Plus if Niv's against lynching to gauge reaction then why doesn't he have a bigger issue with Oman who's advocated this.

That claim is wierd...

tell me how this helps as well?

tell me how this is a sign of guilt? Again just filler for a longer winded argument.

in conclusion, jenter has miniscule content, has been asking for content from other players, and what content she posts is wifom at best. so i would like to:

Confirm Vote Jen

also, it is anoying to do a pbpa here. you dont have a multi quote button

Conclusion

I feel that this entire argument is so forced, bloated and inconsistent that I really have to wonder whats up with Niv. Not to mention that he's made zero attempts to respond to the case made by myself in post 251,252. Maybe its time for us to take a closer look at Niv and I'm going to start that with:

Vote=Niv

[soupfly]

i am away until monday...wish you all a great weekend.

[soupfly]

okay, i'm back and i must say there's lots of interesting developments so far. i only did a quick read cause its late but will look over it more carefully tomorrow.

i'd say that I believe those who have claimed. i'm keeping my vote on Niv for the time being because I found his PBPA of Jenter to be terrible. also, i can see him trying to defend the innocent who was playing so badly (gator the VI) that he was likely to get himself lynched.

i also don't like the idea of the double lynch that jenter suggested. i'll explain below.

Gatorguy and Jimmy are as good as confirmed in my eyes. Unfortunately that means I don't think they'll live long. It's more likely that Jenter is scum. But since we can direct his kills, I don't think we should lynch him today.

vote: Oman

Whoever we end up lynching, we should establish two plans for Jenter: one if the lynch turns up town, and one if the lynch turns up scum. These may or may not be the same.

We still need to hear from a few people before we proceed.

I'm a bit confused here Eroto...why u think jenter is scummy based on how simple it is to confirm his role...at least i think its like that if i understand the roles correctly. Mafia gets one kill during the night, right? If mafia gets one kill and vig gets one kill then its easy to confirm Jenter's role cause there will be two kills. Jenter, you should not publicize who you will kill as vigilante (next night phase) cause mafia can then double your kill so that there will only be one death during the night phase. this will indicate to everyone that you were lying and probably get u killed in D2. why would mafia do this? because then they can kill the most dangerous power-role left without possibility of doctor assistance. best is to not tell us who you NK and if two turn up dead then we'll know your role is legit.

I hope I'm understanding these roles correctly because this is first time i'm seeing vigilantes or masons. also, is it certain that vig wins with town?

[soupfly]

problem we must address is how to verify jenter's role.

mod, can you clarify how the death scenes would play out? i.e. can the killers chose their weapons or are they predetermines (or random). do we know if the same person was killed twice? what are all the scenarios for this...that is assuming that jenter is telling the truth.

[soupfly]

Soup, I don't believe Maz will tell us that. Mods tend not to reveal a whole lot of information (remember when you asked about Gator's absense)

i never asked about gator's absence, someone else did.

this is different. we are asking about the parameters of the game which are necessary for us to understand as we put together a strategy. i'm not asking to confirm or reveal roles but to tell us how the death scenes will be handled.

[soupfly]

Niv has the same idea I had in 388. Why would they waste their night phase just to make Jenter look bad?

they're not wasting it. if jenter is vigilate, then here's two scenarios where town wastes a kill and uses a kill:

mafia wastes vote to incriminate jenter

Night: Mafia No-Kills, Jenter Kills (1 unknown dead)
Day: Town lynches jenter (1 townie dead)
Night: Mafia kill (1 townie dead)

net= 2 townies dead, 1 unknown dead

If mafia keeps kill

Night: Mafia kills (1 townie dead), Jenter Kills (1 unknown dead)
Day: Town lynches (1 unknown dead)
Night: Night: Mafia kills (1 townie dead), Jenter Kills (1 unknown dead)

net= 2 townies dead, 3 unknown dead

unknown kills are kills that could go either way...could be mafia or townie. they are the only way in which the town can kill mafia players: take a best guess and kill someone hoping that its a mafia player.

as far as mafia is concerned, the first scenario is better because there are fewer unknown kills and the same number of guaranteed dead townies. also, if jenter is vigilante he can expect doctor protection so it would not be possible to get him with a night kill (or risk losing a night kill this way) unless there is some other mafia power role.

if jenter is indeed the vigilante he will be the key to the town strategy because the extra kill per round (day+night phase) will give the town two chances to kill a mafia player for every guaranteed town kill that the mafia has. of course it will still be necessary for the town to lynch/kill accurately but the extra chances are in the town's favor.

i'm not saying that mafia will definitely go with scenario 1, but it is a possibility that we must consider. and if it is a viable strategy for mafia (as i've argued above), then town must do what it can to discourage that strategy --> have jenter vote independently so that we can verify his role claim.

the only thing missing now is clarification on how the death scenes would play out.

[soupfly]

EBWOP: the second sentence:

if jenter is vigilate, then here's two scenarios where

town

wastes a kill and uses a kill:

town should read mafia. actual sentence should read:

if jenter is vigilate, then here's two scenarios where

mafia

wastes a kill and uses a kill:

[soupfly]

Okay, I see your point. Except now its void, cause we'll be on the lookout.

Huh? I don't understand this.

[soupfly]

I'm going to keep my vote on Niv. I've felt it for a while now and don't see any reason to change it.

Haut Boy is getting on my nerves with his absence. Every time the game picks up speed we notice that somebody is absent. I don't think anybody should get a free pass just because they claim that they're busy.

As we reach the end of Day 1, a few thoughts in case I don't make it to day 2:

1) Verifying Jenter's claim is priority number one. Two kills during the night will confirm it. One kill will look pretty bad...don't be fooled if the one kill is with a machete because Mafia can just as easily choose to kill with a machete to give impression that they no-killed while Jenter (vig) did kill. Having said this, I'm strongly leaning towards believing jenter's claim of vig, especially in light of the game starting with a night phase.

2) Doctor (assuming town has one): Until town is sure, doctor should protect Jenter at all costs because of the huge town benefits of an extra kill. Having said that it could be an interesting play to protect someone else given that mafia wouldn't risk losing a night kill by attacking a high profile power role. On the other hand, mafia can risk a kill attempt on Jenter knowing that if the doc saves him, there will only be one night kill and that would indicate that Jenter is not a vigilante. Again, any clarification on how night action will be revealed would help in this regard.

3) Erotomachia is by far the most town in my eyes. He's been very logical and consistent so far.

4) My scum suspicions (after Niv): Oman, Streetflo, Hautboy.

Good luck to all.

[soupfly]

can somebody put together a vote count?

[soupfly]

I will only vote Niv if Jenter decides that if Niv comes up town Oman is tonight's NK.

Town doesn't want mafia to know who Jenter will vote for (I explained in detail why this would be the case), because in short if they know he's going to vote against a townie, they will no kill to make town turn against Jenter (since his power role would not be confirmed).

Vote for who you think is mafia and trust Jenter to do the right thing.

[soupfly]

Hold the lynching. By my count there are only 5 votes on Niv.

Votes for Niv that I counted: Soupfly, Oman, Jenter, JimmyR, Gator

Can somebody verify my count?

[soupfly]

Updated Vote Count:

Niv (5): Jenter Brolincani, Jimmy R, Oman, Soupfly, Haut Boy
Oman (3): Niv, Streeflo, ThaiBoxerShorts

Not voting (3): Erg0, Erotomachia, Gatorguy91

[soupfly]

If Jenter's the SK then he would have killed in N0. I can't think of a scenario in which he could have predicted D1 scenarios so as to no kill on that night if he were SK. I think Jenter's either a Vig (as he claims) or scum pretending to be mafia. What was the vote count on Jenter when he claimed?

In any case we'll know soon enough.

[soupfly]

we've been playing for over three weeks so this is hardly premature. if you think he's guilty then drop the hammer...no need to delay the inevitable. if you're not sure then say that also.

[soupfly]

everyone's voted so let's get this over with gator. vote for who you think is scum.

[soupfly]

bummer

let's have a closer look at the lurkers

[soupfly]

At this point we have no choice but to assume that gator and jimmy are town masons. If its a ruse then hats off to them but since we can't risk another town lynch I don't think suspicion on them makes sense.

Situations from my perspective:

Town:

Gatorguy91
Jimmy R
soupfly

suspects=5 of which 3 are scum

Erg0 --> not sure
Erotomachia --> sensed genuine town play from him...is he playing the town role to perfectly?
Streeflo --> Lurking since beginning
ThaiBoxerShorts --> As I stated earlier he's been playing very passive...posting enough to not be considered a lurker but not posting/voting in a way that would draw attention to him.
Haut Boy --> Lurked Bigtime (a replacement)

As far as I'm concerned those 5 are potential scum given that i'm a townie. <--note this is only how I see it because the rest of you have no way to verify my claim.

In any case, we've lost three of the most vocal and active players: Niv, Oman and Jenter which would lead me towards the people who have been playing under the radar.

At this point my suspicion is on:

Thaiboxershorts and Streetflo

My analysis on 3 votes for TBS

Hammer is 5 votes. Thaiboxershorts had 3 votes on him but mafia did not do a quick hammer. I believe Jimmy to be town so that would mean that there are two scenarios:

1) If Thaiboxershorts is town then Streetflo and ErgO are both scum. If either Streetflo or ErgO were also town then coupled with Jimmy's town vote that would be enough for a quick hammer, which hasn't happened (assuming that people have been visiting site which I assume that Mafia are doing since they probably controlled length of night phase)

2) If Thaiboxershorts is Scum then there's not much we can read on anybody.

Based on this, lynching TBS (if he's scum) will not really give us any further info. Lynching Streetflo or ErgO would establish a link with the other.

So the big question is, just how guilty do you guys really think that TBS is?

[soupfly]

EBWOP well now that Gator has voted that's two town votes so unless a quick hammer happens we'll know that TBS is town.

If he's town then both Streetflo and ErgO are scum.

[soupfly]

EBWOP well now that Gator has voted that's two town votes so unless a quick hammer happens we'll know that TBS is town.

If he's town then both Streetflo and ErgO are scum.

Sorry, messed up here. This is backwards, unless a quick hammer happens we'll know TBS is scum.

[soupfly]

with gator and and jimmy keeping their votes on TBS and no quick lynch I would say he's probably scum. that is if we assume that there's three mafia which we've all pretty much assumed. I'm ready for a TBS vote.

Erotomachia --> sensed genuine town play from him...is he playing the town role to perfectly?

FoS: soupfly

May I point you to this page?

ffs, i'm not saying he's guilty.

[soupfly]

i'm traveling for the next couple of days.

at this point i must assume that mafia have had plenty of time to use gator and jimmy's votes to do a quick lynch. they haven't and so its a good bet that TBS is scum.

vote=Thaiboxershorts

see you in a a few.

[soupfly]

sorry if these quotes are out of order.

Okay, you accuse me of lurking since the beginning. I admit, I lurked at the beginning of the game, but only because I announced that my computer had exploded and I was trying to find a replacement. After that, I don't find it fair to be accused of lurking.

Please don't use the Too Townie arguement. kthxbai.
Both Erg0 and Erotomachia have fewer posts than me, but why not accuse them of "lurking"?

I'll

Unvote

reluctantly since you guys seem extraordinarily paranoid.

FoS: Soupfly

my point about the lurkers is that two of the most active posters (oman/niv) got lynched on account of the fact that they were posting alot. even jenter got lynched because he had to claim since he was also posting alot and got heat. what i'm saying about the lurkers isn't necessarily about post count but about how involved they've been in looking for scum. So far mafia has let town fight each other while keeping a low profile. you can keep a low profile even by posting enough to say you're not lurking.

Even though we have a 3/5 chance of getting scum, I honestly have no idea who might be scum.

Based on this, lynching TBS (if he's scum) will not really give us any further info. Lynching Streetflo or ErgO would establish a link with the other.

We don't need to lynch for info - we're at Lylo. Getting info won't help when it's game over.

FOS: soupfly

Jeez, I didn't say lynch for info. My analysis was based on the idea that if two townies vote wrong then mafia can quick lynch (3 quick votes) and game over.

i'm traveling for the next couple of days.

at this point i must assume that mafia have had plenty of time to use gator and jimmy's votes to do a quick lynch. they haven't and so its a good bet that TBS is scum.

vote=Thaiboxershorts

see you in a a few.

I don't really like this reasoning...

If you assume that Jimmy and Gator are town then TBS is most definitely mafia since he hasn't been quick lynched yet. I wouldn't have advocated this play at the beginning of Day 2 (nor was I suspicious of TBS) but its already been done so its the best play at the moment.

If you don't agree with my reasoning then please tell me why you think I'm wrong.

[soupfly]

i think it was the wrong play early on to get two quick town votes (jimmy/gator) on anybody but it happened...afterwards the lack of a quick lynch speaks for itself. i don't think town lost.

[soupfly]

A couple of points:

1) No point in no voting today now that Jimmy is confirmed as mason. No vote tomorrow.

2) Did a reread of the thread and I can't say that any of my four suspects (erotomachia, streetflo, ergo or haut boy) are slam dunk cases for votes.

3) Because there is no clear cut scum let's not rush to put anybody at two votes because we need more discussion.

My thoughts following my reread:

-> Streetflo: I think that Streetflo is most likely a townie. I take back what he said about lurking because that was only in first half of game and he's been quite active since. He's done nothing scummy to date and has also been fairly active in hunting scum. At the moment I'm assuming he's townie.

-> Erotomachia: I think of him as the boy scout cause he says and does all the right things. Nothing scummy from him yet. Only thing I would have liked to see is more involvement in scum hunting. He's posted his opinions but has not really stirred any controversy with his play.

-> ErgO: Nothing really scummy here. What I like about Ergo is that he's not been afraid of controversy. There are a couple of WIFOM moments where you can interpret his actions but i don't think its enough for real suspicion.

-> Haut Boy: Lurking big time. Was also a replacement player. There's no content to analyze here because he's barely posted. The only defense here is: Would the original player and replacement ignore this game if they were in a mafia role?

My gut at the moment is leaning towards a Erotomachia/Haut Boy scum pairing.

It would be helpful if the rest of you post your thoughts on the others. Don't make definitive votes yet please.

[soupfly]

erotomachia makes an okay point about me but it really is wifom...which is okay at this point i think. in my defense its an analysis, not a call for a vote, and it actually was a correct analysis. if you look back at that situation, there were five votes needed for a lynch and three scum remaining...therefore you needed only two town votes for a quick lynch. the fact that Ergo/streetflo were on the wagon made it possible that they were trying to get townie TBS lynched. when i realized a quick lynch wasn't happening (enough time had passed with jimmy/gator still voting tbs) i put my vote down because it was a clear sign of tbs's guilt.

for the record, i had not found TBS guilty throughout the game. at the same time i led the lynch against Niv and would have just as quickly lynched Oman so i was looking for scummy behavior (niv for his poor pbp against jenter and oman for his constant jumpiness) instead of finding those looking to blend in.

while i was frustrated with the start of day 2, i was not really in a cautious mood. we took nearly a month to complete day 1 and it resulted in three townie deaths. i was certain that niv and oman were scum so it was quite a bummer. beyond that we were at lylo already and hadn't taken out a single mafia member so i wasn't really too excited about more conversation. its clear that the scum had taken the low road and let the overeager townies knock each other off.

i did a read through and none of us are really scummy which makes this a tough call. i've taken a reverse approach in trying to figure out who is town instead of who is scum. i think that real townies actually make an effort to find scum, they're a little bit more aggressive and more likely to create controversy with what they say/do. that's why i'm leaning towards erotomachia and hautboy as scum at the moment. hautboy has lurked and erotomachia has played the good townie without really making any waves...any real accusations to bring heat upon him.

as far as me being scum, i've certainly posted alot which exposes me more than others. probably easier to to make wifom cases against me but in my defense i've been fairly aggressive in hunting scum...though the results have not been so spectacular

[soupfly]

we're kinda screwed with Haut Boy because even with a replacement, what would we get out of the new person in such a short period of time. they would have to totally mess up in order to give away themselves if they are scum. we should have called for a replacement earlier.

one question: if haut boy was scum and hasn't posted on the site since the 11th, then wouldn't night 2 have lasted much longer? TBS was dead so that would have left two scum to vote. if hautboy was scum and didn't submit his vote (due to being away) then it should have taken longer to complete the night phase (due to initial wait and then prodding by mod to vote) and the mod probably would have sought a replacement. this would probably indicate that haut boy isn't really scum. does this make sense to anybody?

[soupfly]

The fact that so many people want to lynch Haut Boy makes me think he's a townie. If he wasn't, I would have expected a "counter-wagon" to form.

Wait, I don't get this.

me neither

we're kinda screwed with Haut Boy because even with a replacement, what would we get out of the new person in such a short period of time. they would have to totally mess up in order to give away themselves if they are scum. we should have called for a replacement earlier.

one question: if haut boy was scum and hasn't posted on the site since the 11th, then wouldn't night 2 have lasted much longer? TBS was dead so that would have left two scum to vote. if hautboy was scum and didn't submit his vote (due to being away) then it should have taken longer to complete the night phase (due to initial wait and then prodding by mod to vote) and the mod probably would have sought a replacement. this would probably indicate that haut boy isn't really scum. does this make sense to anybody?

i hadn't thought of the replacement one like that. Our best hope is for HautBoy to come back then. > >

Your point on the night makes sense, but as a rule, I generally don't like the metagame night phase lengths. It's too complicated and there's a lot of hidden variables. By that same logic though, HautBoy wouldn't be a powerrole either, so if he claims one...

even if he does come back, what can we really hope to get out of him. the idea is that by this point you can evaluate the person's play throughout the entire game as the identity of the players is slowly revealed. i just can't imagine how we could really get much out of him (or replacement) at this stage of the game.

in my way of thinking we can evaluate hautboy either through evaluation/exclusion of other players (not a great method IMO) or to do a little metagaming and evaluate length of night phase and the power role issue. i don't think that town has anymore power-roles so it would make sense that hautboy/original player weren't too interested in this game due to being vanilla townie. in all honesty, people take a greater interest in the game when they have a power role, especially when you're mafia. i think their play goes beyond lurking into the realm of just not caring too much about game 470. i know metagaming is frowned upon but in this particular case it makes sense. again, is this making any sense to you guys?

i have one final idea but i gotta run now and want a little time to digest the idea and see if it actually makes sense. will post it when i get a chance.

[soupfly]

Um, since when do the scum

vote

on night kills? When I mod I just need one of them to send me the kill, so if one is absent it wouldn't hold the game up.

Not only is this a terrible meta, it's factually inaccurate.

i've never modded so i wouldn't know. however, if there were only two scum players left, would one send in the kill without hearing from the other? that's not proper etiquette i would think. all i'm saying is that it would have taken a bit more than it did.

if you guys don't buy this logic, do you have other ideas?

[soupfly]

I think haut boy is townie because of what I'd previously written. I know its metagaming but at this stage its a valid argument IMHO. Aside from lurking, which at this point seems more like indifference, I don't think there's much pointing to his guilt.

Haut Boy is an easy lynch cause nobody's going to stand up for him since he's away. Safe prey for scum wanting to get an easy lynch without wanting to mess with the active players that would actually fight back.

Jimmy, I think you're probably going to be the decision maker on this since you're the the most credible of all of us.

I'm out til sunday, see you then.

[soupfly]

One last thing, to me Erotomachia gets my vote if we were to vote right now. He hasn't done anything scummy but he's also not done many things that are pro-town. Not much scum hunting for most of the game until now. Hasn't really challenged anyone or posted anything that would draw attention to himself. He's just kind of gone with the flow. That's the sense I've gotten from him.

Again Jimmy, I think the burden of today's vote will fall on you.

We do need a Haut Boy replacement because its four to lynch and there's only five active players at the moment which means that no lynch can take place without scum participation...ouch.

[soupfly]

because i really don't think haut boy is scum and because we agreed to hold off on getting to two votes, i find L-2 very odd at this point. i think that jimmy should have more input (since he's the most reliable source of analysis) before we get close to a vote.

my mood for d3 is far different than d2. i'm in no rush. two correct lynches is not so hard considering that we can no lynch on D4 to eliminate an unknown. this is the critical lynch and if we get this right then i'm confident for the final showdown.

[soupfly]

OK. Erotomachia I'm pretty sure is townie. His obstinacy that I am town makes no sense in a lylo situation when he could win simply by voting me off. I just don't see it as a valid scum move.

I'm a little confused here since I've very outspoken about hautboy (you) not being scum:

one question: if haut boy was scum and hasn't posted on the site since the 11th, then wouldn't night 2 have lasted much longer? TBS was dead so that would have left two scum to vote. if hautboy was scum and didn't submit his vote (due to being away) then it should have taken longer to complete the night phase (due to initial wait and then prodding by mod to vote) and the mod probably would have sought a replacement. this would probably indicate that haut boy isn't really scum. does this make sense to anybody?

I think haut boy is townie because of what I'd previously written. I know its metagaming but at this stage its a valid argument IMHO. Aside from lurking, which at this point seems more like indifference, I don't think there's much pointing to his guilt.

Haut Boy is an easy lynch cause nobody's going to stand up for him since he's away. Safe prey for scum wanting to get an easy lynch without wanting to mess with the active players that would actually fight back.

Jimmy, I think you're probably going to be the decision maker on this since you're the the most credible of all of us.

I'm out til sunday, see you then.

because i really don't think haut boy is scum and because we agreed to hold off on getting to two votes, i find L-2 very odd at this point. i think that jimmy should have more input (since he's the most reliable source of analysis) before we get close to a vote.

my mood for d3 is far different than d2. i'm in no rush. two correct lynches is not so hard considering that we can no lynch on D4 to eliminate an unknown. this is the critical lynch and if we get this right then i'm confident for the final showdown.

why would you think that erotomachia is town because he thinks you're town in a lylo situation, yet not apply the same logic to me when i've been much more direct about stating and arguing that you aren't scum. this is mildly suspicious.

Well, everything that Jenter wrote is pretty sound IMO. I think that in large part the Jenter bandwagon is fabricated and those voting for him certainly look suspicious in my eyes. It may be that he's scum but not based on the arguments presented so far.

I'm leaning towards a Gator vote at the moment.

Still not much of a feel on Streetflo, Haut Boy or Jimmy R. Thai is off of my suspicion list as he's really not done anything scummy yet.

Finally, this post reinforces that vibe, given that TBS was about to be lynched. It reads very much as an attempt to carefully protect TBS.

TBS was not about to be lynched when I wrote this. This was written on D1 when Jenter was heading towards a lynch based on a play by play written by Niv which was really poor. Unfortunately both wound up being town so its unfortunate that Niv was so insistent on Jenter's guilt.

Regarding TBS, I've already admitted that I didn't really find him all that scummy. My vote for him on day 2 was based on the fact that confirmed townies (the two masons) had voted for him and there was no quick lynch after over 2 days when scum had enough votes left to finish the game there. To me the deciding point was based on the math involved, not my finding TBS overtly guilty. Also, I've never pointed to my vote of TBS as a sign of being town. At that point he was clearly scum through the logic of a situation imposed by Jimmy/Gator. Don't think you can read into that.

In light of the two votes against hautboy(shanba) by Streetflo then Ergo my suspicion is moving away from Erotomachia and towards the two of them because:
1) shanba was not a consensus candidate for lynching (me and eroto are not onboard)
2) i thought we had decided to hold off on quick lynches
3) if they were both town (and shanba is also town which is what i believe) then there would have already been a quick lynch and game over.

Jimmy, PLEASE give us some feedback! You're the only trustworthy analyst at the moment.

[soupfly]

Because I thought the rush to lynch Shanba was very scummy, I think that the scum pair is erg0 and streetflo. The alternative to this theory would be eroto/shanba as a scum pair which seems much more unlikely.

But i'm in no rush to vote yet.

[soupfly]

If you want a good case against Eroto/Shanba then look at posts 587, 588, 594, 605 and 609. Very few of these points have been adequately addressed by anybody today.

I read those posts and will share my thoughts once Eroto and Shanba respond.

[soupfly]

Post 587

Notes on TBS, isolating his posts and focusing on his behaviour towards other players:

0. Random vote soupfly

1. Minor attack soupfly

2. Unvote in face of wagon on soupfly

3. Doesn't want to vote Langley (Jimmy), throw-in comment on Zakk (Haut Boy)

4. Thinks either Gator or soupfly is scum (prefers Gator)

6. Vote Langley (Jimmy) for lurking + lack of substance

7. IGMEOY Zakk (Haut Boy) for much the same reason

9. Distances from soupfly wagon

10. Puts Gator second on scum list, suspicion of Langley (Jimmy), Zakk (Haut Boy), ok with Oman, Jenter, soupfly

11. Again distancing from soupfly wagon. Vote Gator

14. Much the same as 11, not suspicious of Streeflo

16. IGMEOY Oman for townie claim

20. Pushes for Gator's mason buddy to claim

23. Withdraws plan due to flawed reasoning (caught in a gambit?)

25. IGMEOY Oman, mild suspicions

26. Unvote, FOS Oman

29. Vote Oman (4th vote on fast wagon)

Conclusions in a second.

Post 588

Breakdown by player:

Erotomachia - barely mentioned by TBS, answered a question from him at one point but that's it.

Jimmy R (Langley) - catches a vote for lurking and posting little substance.

soupfly - initially looks like TBS is distancing from him, but later comments where TBS disowns the wagon seem to indicate that he didn't want to be implicated in wagoning a townie.

Streeflo - also barely mentioned.

Haut Boy - looks suspicious because TBS is soft on his lurking and lack of substance while voting Langley (Jimmy R) for the same.

Based on that I'm thinking that the suspect list is narrowed to Haut Boy, Erotomachia and Streeflo, with Haut Boy firmly in the top spot. I'm going to do another analysis of posts by other players regarding TBS, which I expect will be illuminating.

Post 594

Having flicked through Haut Boy's posts I'm still putting him at the top of my list. Pretty much everyone he expressed suspicion of has turned out to be a townie, with the exception being soupfly, who I like as a townie for the reasons stated earlier. He hasn't posted on site since the 11th, so his stance on the Day 2 vote is more or less irrelevant since he appears not to have been here for it.

I agree that he needs to be replaced, so we can at least get a claim out of him. It would take something big to stop me from voting for him, though.

Post 605

Interesting theory - so you're saying that if Haut Boy were scum then there'd be one person (his scumbuddy) defending him or at least trying to prevent him from being lynched.

Isn't that what

you're

doing?

Post 609

<snip>

All I'm trying to say is that people are overconfident in Haut Boy's scumminess. The only argument against him is that he's been inactive.

All the signs point to Haut Boy

What signs?! He hasn't posted in 2 weeks!

I'm starting to wonder about the possibility of soupfly/Erg0 scumpair. Soupfly is still at the top of my scum list. For now, however, I'd like to hear more from Jimmy R (since he's the only confirmed innocent and someone we can trust) about what he thinks of the players besides Haut Boy.

Look at my posts 587, 588 and 594. I'm not voting on impulse, I genuinely think that Haut Boy's relationship with TBS was the most scummy. His inactivity is neither here nor there as far as I'm concerned.

Seriously, soupfly is the worst person you could try to pair me with besides maybe Jimmy. Haut Boy tried to distance himself massively from soupfly's wagon on day 1, I don't see him doing that if he was bussing his buddy.

[soupfly]

Sorry for repost, I meant to click preview instead of submit...

Post 587

Notes on TBS, isolating his posts and focusing on his behaviour towards other players:

0. Random vote soupfly

1. Minor attack soupfly

2. Unvote in face of wagon on soupfly

3. Doesn't want to vote Langley (Jimmy), throw-in comment on Zakk (Haut Boy)

4. Thinks either Gator or soupfly is scum (prefers Gator)

6. Vote Langley (Jimmy) for lurking + lack of substance

7. IGMEOY Zakk (Haut Boy) for much the same reason

9. Distances from soupfly wagon

10. Puts Gator second on scum list, suspicion of Langley (Jimmy), Zakk (Haut Boy), ok with Oman, Jenter, soupfly

11. Again distancing from soupfly wagon. Vote Gator

14. Much the same as 11, not suspicious of Streeflo

16. IGMEOY Oman for townie claim

20. Pushes for Gator's mason buddy to claim

23. Withdraws plan due to flawed reasoning (caught in a gambit?)

25. IGMEOY Oman, mild suspicions

26. Unvote, FOS Oman

29. Vote Oman (4th vote on fast wagon)

Conclusions in a second.

I must again admit that I didn't see the reasons for a TBS vote to start D2. I've done a reread of TBS's posts and still don't understand how it was such a slam dunk for Day 2. As I've mentioned numerous times, I voted for TBS once it was mathematically probable that he was scum. Imo, looking at TBS doesn't tell us much of anything really...at least not me. For this reason I'm tempted to believe eroto's "I think we lost post" because unless you look at the math of the situation, it looked like a quick lynch on a player who was not a slam dunk candidate for scum.

Post 588

Breakdown by player:

Erotomachia - barely mentioned by TBS, answered a question from him at one point but that's it.

Jimmy R (Langley) - catches a vote for lurking and posting little substance.

soupfly - initially looks like TBS is distancing from him, but later comments where TBS disowns the wagon seem to indicate that he didn't want to be implicated in wagoning a townie.

Streeflo - also barely mentioned.

Haut Boy - looks suspicious because TBS is soft on his lurking and lack of substance while voting Langley (Jimmy R) for the same.

Based on that I'm thinking that the suspect list is narrowed to Haut Boy, Erotomachia and Streeflo, with Haut Boy firmly in the top spot. I'm going to do another analysis of posts by other players regarding TBS, which I expect will be illuminating.

To me, there is nothing in this analysis that would put Haut Boy (Shanba)

firmly

in the top spot.

Post 594

Having flicked through Haut Boy's posts I'm still putting him at the top of my list. Pretty much everyone he expressed suspicion of has turned out to be a townie, with the exception being soupfly, who I like as a townie for the reasons stated earlier. He hasn't posted on site since the 11th, so his stance on the Day 2 vote is more or less irrelevant since he appears not to have been here for it.

I agree that he needs to be replaced, so we can at least get a claim out of him. It would take something big to stop me from voting for him, though.

Now Erg0's making the case that Haut Boy is clearly scum as he states that "it would take something big to stop me from voting him" but unfortunately I do not see a clear case against him.

Post 605

Interesting theory - so you're saying that if Haut Boy were scum then there'd be one person (his scumbuddy) defending him or at least trying to prevent him from being lynched.

Isn't that what

you're

doing?

This refers to Eroto's theory about the counter wagon on Hautboy. Not really seeing much in this exchange unless we want to get into WIFOM.

Post 609

<snip>

All I'm trying to say is that people are overconfident in Haut Boy's scumminess. The only argument against him is that he's been inactive.

All the signs point to Haut Boy

What signs?! He hasn't posted in 2 weeks!

I'm starting to wonder about the possibility of soupfly/Erg0 scumpair. Soupfly is still at the top of my scum list. For now, however, I'd like to hear more from Jimmy R (since he's the only confirmed innocent and someone we can trust) about what he thinks of the players besides Haut Boy.

Look at my posts 587, 588 and 594. I'm not voting on impulse, I genuinely think that Haut Boy's relationship with TBS was the most scummy. His inactivity is neither here nor there as far as I'm concerned.

Seriously, soupfly is the worst person you could try to pair me with besides maybe Jimmy. Haut Boy tried to distance himself massively from soupfly's wagon on day 1, I don't see him doing that if he was bussing his buddy.

Again, I don't see how all the signs are pointing to haut boy.

I've stated my reasons (metagaming argument) why I think Haut Boy was town. Both Erg0 and Streetflo dismissed this notion pretty quickly although Jimmy (confirmed townie) thought it was an interesting point. At this point I was willing to concede that maybe it wasn't a good argument but then came the rush to vote by Erg0 and Streetflo. I really can't understand why they would do this if they were town. This smells of opportunistic scum going after the easiest target: an absent lurker. This is where everything got turned around in my opinion. Going for a quick lynch of an inactive player in Lylo is not town play.

Then Shanba showed up and started to defend himself. This put Erg0 and Streetflow in the unfortunate position of having to defend their questionable actions vis-a-vis a now active player. I think what Shanba has been posting is pretty sound so there's nothing there to shift suspicion towards him.

I am going to push for an Erg0 lynch because the case he has made against Shanba is weak and smells of an opportunistic quick lynch. At this point I believe Shanba is town and Erg0 is scum. Streetflo and Eroto are unclear although I think that Eroto is most likely town in this case.

Jimmy, can you confirm if what I've written here makes sense? We could sure use your input right about now.

[soupfly]

I'm traveling and will be gone till Sunday.

Haven't finished reading the last few posts yet, but I would like to ask soupfly something. You think that Erg0 and Streeflo are scum. Do you think it likely that both scum voted for Haut Boy, one right after the other?

I don't think I can answer that yet and I'm hoping that we don't have to deal with it till end game. It does seem unlikely but then again we can WIFOM it to death either way.

Rereading it I noticed that Streetflo actually placed the second vote which is far more scummy than Erg0's first vote. However, I find Erg0's insistence on shanba's guilt very scummy. In my experience, when somebody insists on the guilt of a player and I don't see it, there's usually something wrong there. Out of curiosity, is anybody else as sure of Shanba's scuminess as Erg0 is? I've read it a couple of times and personally, I don't really buy the argument.

So returning to your question, eroto, I think they could both be scum but I'm not sure. If we get through today (and no lynch tomorrow) N4 will tell us alot.

@Jimmy: I wouldn't be so quick to agree with your assessment of streetflo. I now realize that he is the one who placed the second vote on shanba. There is no reason for a townie to risk a second vote at that stage of the game because if Erg0 was also a townie then there would have been an easy lynch.

[soupfly]

EBWOP: regarding streetflo's second vote, that refers to the vote on shanba.

[soupfly]

Shanba, I'm confused. Why are you voting for Erg0? You say that I'm town and that Erg0-Streeflo is unlikely. This leaves Soupfly/Erg0 and Soupfly/Streeflo as possible scumpairs. So why Erg0 over Soupfly?

Because I know one of Streeflo/Erg0 must be scum, or I'd be dead and we'd have lost by now.

Shanba: what exactly do you mean about soupfly's position on TBS? He doesn't seem to have been too suspicious of him, but I'm looking more at TBS's position on soupfly, since that's more reliable in my eyes. Townies can be mistaken about someone, but scum (almost) always know the alignment of each person that they comment on.

Eh. I was hoping you would point to specifics that made you think he was town.

Incidentally, I noticed in re-reading that soupfly says in 442 that the doctor (if there is one) should protect Jenter, who ended up being the scum's target that night. I can't see scum actively promoting the protection of their intended target. This is only a minor point, though, since it's so subject to WIFOM.

He tries to discourage people from voting TBS on day 2 but does it in such a way that it makes it look like he is suspicious of him. He only votes for TBS when it is clear, by his own logic, that TBS must be scum. It's the sort of behaviour with regards to scum that makes my skin crawl.

Skin crawl? If you are townie and I am scum then I would have had zero incentive to defend hautboy/yourself before you were even active. Jimmy was leaning towards a vote your way and it would not have been hard to push for a lynch. I could have even just been silent and let things play out. However, I thought you were a townie before you even joined the game and was much more vocal than Eroto on this point. Despite this, you seem convinced that Eroto is town because of the fact that he posted "I think we lost"!?! That's your definitive reasoning for clearing Eroto and now starting to cast suspicion on me? I guess that brings you down a notch on my townie list and now makes me completely reconsider the game scenarios because up until now I'd been going on the assumption that you were town.

Regarding TBS I believe I've addressed my link with him but i'll do it again. D1: I wasn't overly suspicious but did make a post that I found him slightly suspicious because he was essentially lurking in plain sight. Was only a small suspicion and didn't see the point of a lynch on D2. I only voted for him when it was clear he was scum so I don't expect any townie credit for disposing of a scum, nor any scum points unless you wanna go totally WIFOM on me.

Given what I wrote above, I'm gonna do a full reread in order to see if I can get any further insights into the game.

For the time being I'm not comfortable voting for anybody which means that my initial suspicion on Erg0 has subsided. Funny thing is that eroto is now looking the most town to me.

[soupfly]

It's a much stronger link to him than I found in anyone else. Weakly attacking a scumbuddy when he's not under any pressure is the oldest distancing trick in the book. The d2 lynch thing was excessively quick, I agree, but posting things like "
So the big question is, just how guilty do you guys really think that TBS is?" is only going to discourage his lynch. It's a challenge. Go on, vote for him. I dare you. Do you see my point?

Jeez...nothing but WIFOM. If "weakly attacking a scumbuddy is the oldest trick in the book" then its clear I wouldn't have done it if I were scum since its too obvious...and we can go on and on like this forever.

Why are you basing all of your arguments (e.g. Eroto "I think town lost") on WIFOM? All that WIFOM arguments give you is a random chance of catching scum which isn't particularly helpful at this point.

[soupfly]

Let's agree to disagree about what is and isn't WIFOM cause we can go back and forth for pages.

I'm not saying that you shouldn't consider my action as a sign of my guilt, however you are depending too much on singular instances which honestly can be interpreted either way (eroto's statement is another example). I think you need to consider the entire body of evidence and the person's play/actions throughout the entire game rather than just a "scum tell" or a "town tell".

ATM, you're insisting pretty heavily on some singular points which are quite interpretable IMO.

Please do answer Erg0's question.

[soupfly]

Maybe if you ignore me I'll go away.

Erg0, the two situations would be the same if it were my only reason for voting soupfly.

have you decided to place your vote on me?

[soupfly]

this is starting to drag on a little bit.

who would you guys vote for right now?

me, i'm leaning towards streetflo because the second vote against shanba was very scummy.

[soupfly]

i've reread this thread twice today and can't make any sense of it. every time i try to build a case against somebody i find myself in a WIFOM argument. very frustrating indeed cause it almost seems like nobody is worth of being scum. well played indeed.

the play for today is either streeflo or shanba. streeflo has play excellent but i just can't get over his second vote today. shanba has used some pretty shaky logic in his posts till now. the point that eroto just pointed out is very true indeed. with shanba's logic he should have seen me as obvious scum but he didn't...probably cause he can't explain why i defended him.

eroto has played a great game and seems more town than any of us. i take back what i wrote about him floating along. he's contributed to scum hunting, his logic has been akin to mine and if he's scum then well done to him. i just can't see him as scum. steeflo and ergo can't both be scum so the only choice i got left is shanba.

its taken a while, we've taken our time but the best place for my vote is shanba.

i won't make an official vote cause my idea all along was to let Jimmy to decide the lynch for today.

i have one final idea but i gotta run now and want a little time to digest the idea and see if it actually makes sense. will post it when i get a chance.

this is when i first had the idea to give Jimmy the decision to lynch for D3. i decided against it because if we agreed as such it would not let us interpret how people are voting which could be helpful for day 4. but at this point we don have some preliminary votes cause people are on record with who they would vote for.

would you guys be comfortable with Jimmy making the final call as to who gets lynched on D3?

[soupfly]

EBWOP: i shouldn't have written: "steeflo and ergo can't both be scum". its more of a "its extremely unlikely that they can both be scum". i just can't imaging them taking that chance.

[soupfly]

@streeflo and erg0: how can you be so sure of shanba being scum?

[soupfly]

alright, this game has slowed to a crawl. mod i think we need a deadline or something to get people posting again.

[soupfly]

let me try to put my jumping around into perspective.

my initial suspicion was eroto because of what i perceived to be passive play. it was the feeling i had but upon doing a reread i've decided that this was not the case.

then, came the two votes against shanba at which my suspicion turned to ergo/streeflo because it was untownie to go after shanba so quickly. initially i saw ergo as being the culprit because he was way too insistent on shanba's guilt, but then i realized that it was streeflo that placed the second vote which would make him a bit scummier.

this also coincided with my metagaming assessment over the length of the night phase for N2 which led me to believe that shanba was town. --> eroto, what is your opinion on the argument i made? never got your feedback.

finally came the fact that shanba's arguments have been very shaky. insisting that eroto is town based on one post, not putting his vote on me, voting for Ergo when streeflo's second vote is scummier.

i'm having a tough time with this because I just can't see a great case for anybody. my suspicions have jumped around but the fact that i've not adamantly pushed for anybody's lynch is pretty much consistent with the fact that i can't make anything more than a WIFOM case against any of you.

to conclude, i've been very active and open about my point of view all game long. for D3 this has resulted in fluid suspicions but i think that any open minded townie would understand that. there is no great case at the moment because everyone's played a pretty good game. truth is that ergo/streeflo/shanba are so close in my eyes that i'm one good argument away from reversing myself again. if you guys interpret this as scummy ok, but i'm not gonna change the way i play at this stage of the game just so that i can appear more town friendly.

[soupfly]

its taken a while, we've taken our time but the best place for my vote is shanba.

i won't make an official vote cause my idea all along was to let Jimmy to decide the lynch for today.

i really am torn between steeflo and shanba but i guess its time:

vote: shanba

[soupfly]

how on earth could this possibly make sense?

5 alive

4 town

1 scum

why no lynch by scum? especially when jimmy is confirmed. this essentially gives town two shots at lynching. if mislynch today then there are still 3 town and 1 scum. if scum kill at night then we get to end game: 2 town, 1 scum.

this is absolutely baffling, the math on this makes no sense. if there had been a lynch then we'd be at four players: 3 town and 1 scum which is essentially end game because if town mislynches its game over. town would have no-lynched to get to 2 town and 1 scum but they'd still be in a position where they could not mislynch.

so basically town has been given an extra mis-lynch through this no-lynch.

i just don't get it...why give town an extra mis-lynch?

[soupfly]

please don't hammer me until i get a chance to respond. L-1 and i've only posted once today.

[soupfly]

as much as i would like to stick around to end game i don't think that would be a good idea. the problem is that even if i do survive today, i would be the logical choice to lynch when we are down to 3 people. in any case jimmy doesn't die tonight because he either gets protection by Eroto or eroto continues his gambit and NK's somebody else. that means that jimmy would have the final choice and unfortunately i would not get the benefit of the doubt going head to head with any of you which means that town would lose.

it doesn't makes sense to lynch eroto following his claim so i guess i'm the odd man out.

ultimately its going to come down to Jimmy deciding between:

-streeflo and Erg0 --> i would say streeflo is the guilty one here.

or

-streeflo/Erg0 and eroto --> WIFOM FTW! I don't envy jimmy's choice in this case.

i'm not gonna bore you all with a long post extolling my virtues as a pro-town player cause you guys have all read the thread multiple times. so unless you guys have a change of heart regarding my alignment, and really feel that i'm definitely a townie, i'm ready to meet my fate.

[soupfly]

if i'm gonna be lynched, i would appreciate it if jimmy cast the final vote for me and not eroto.

[soupfly]

You, soupfly, are a townie. You have no powers except the vote. You win with the town.

Go town!

[soupfly]

damn, i should have fought for my life. if i did I would have attacked streeflo because i believed Eroto's claim and streeflo seemed much scummier than erg0. but i was so sure that the townies would lynch me in lylo that i figured it wouldn't be a good play for me to survive to the final three.

my downfall started when eroto jumped on me. then shanba picked it up and he was scum. then steeflo picked it up and unfortunately Erg0 followed. if only eroto had seen me as more town!

brutal that we only got a total of 3 mislynches but that's the luck of the draw i guess. in hindsight i think a day start would have been a little bit better given the day kill ability of streeflo.

thanks for the great game guys. i really enjoyed playing with you.

cheers to maz medias for being such a gracious host.

[soupfly]

jenter man, i knew you were townie. too bad eroto didn't defend your ass!

[soupfly]

i would have loved to have seen what would have happened in the endgame if streeflo didn't have a day kill.

it would have been:

1) Jimmy
2) Eroto
3) Steeflo

or

1) Jimmy
2) Erg0
3) Steeflo

wonder who jimmy would have picked in either instance.