Not voting : everybody
With 7 alive it takes 4 votes to lynch.
On that note, I want to get the numbers flowing again; I figure that could be a good way of helping to assess the situation. I had errors in my numbers before, please correct me if I have any problems here.Voting is severely risky to me right now. We have (most likely) 3 scum, that means that 1 vote on a town by a town could mean all the scum jump on and win the game (this is likely LY/LO).
Actually, it is more than a 50-50 chance of winning for the scum. If we lynch a townie today, we have 3-3 split. At this point, the scum will have 2 Nights to NK the Vig. If they choose randomly, they get 33% chance of hitting the scum first Night, and then if they fail, 50% the second night, which gives them roughly a 66% chance of winning the game without the Vig hitting his target incorrectly.If the scum were to hammer today, it would dash all hopes of us winning. However, it would also give the scum a 50:50 chance of a draw based on whether they are able to NK the vig. Their chances of winning, hence, are enhanced by not hammering today but lynching a townie as normal because that would make the vig more likely to misdirect his NK and, thus, decreasing the likelihood of a 2:2 arising where it pretty much comes down to a 50:50.
Yes, true. Let me clarify where the 50-50 comes into it. The 50-50 arises if the scum were to hammer in rapid succession or something, giving the vig a perfect idea as to the scum's identities.Actually, it is more than a 50-50 chance of winning for the scum. If we lynch a townie today, we have 3-3 split. At this point, the scum will have 2 Nights to NK the Vig. If they choose randomly, they get 33% chance of hitting the scum first Night, and then if they fail, 50% the second night, which gives them roughly a 66% chance of winning the game without the Vig hitting his target incorrectly.