Mini 419: Farkle Mafia (Game Over)

[JordanA24]

Hi guys, rereading now.

[JordanA24]

Done my reread.

CES is as scummy as hell, I'd be very happy with his lynch today. I 100% believe him to be scum.

Unvote whoever my predecessor was voting Vote: CES

As to his scumpartner, I can easily see a CES/Thesp scumteam, just the right combination of distancing and defending during Day 1, and I really didn't like his defence of him either. Seems a lot like trying to distract the thread away from CES, and the miller thing seemed like he was setting up a safe-claim for CES. Though I could also see Bertrand as his scum partner as well.

That said, Dagger has also really set my scumdar into overdrive as well, a lot of what he's done in this game has been really scummy. But he is voting for CES now isn't he? This might be scum-distancing, but I'm inclined to believe it isn't for now.

Nocmen/SSF is the SK as far as I'm concerned. I didn't believe Nocmen's excuse for one moment.

My gut says Kilmenator is protown. I'm very much against lynching her.

[Dagger]

I am having bad vibes from Thesp during his latest exchange. >_>

FYI, no, I am not voting for CES, I am voting for kilmenator.

My gut says she is scum. And I am going to apply the thought that you, as mokina's replacement, might be her scum buddy.

[JordanA24]

Two questions:

1) What is your case against Kilmenator?

2) If Kilmenator is scum, what makes you think that I'm her scumbuddy?

[Thesp]

Done my reread.

CES is as scummy as hell, I'd be very happy with his lynch today. I 100% believe him to be scum. Unvote whoever my predecessor was voting Vote: CES

As to his scumpartner, I can easily see a CES/Thesp scumteam, just the right combination of distancing and defending during Day 1, and I really didn't like his defence of him either. Seems a lot like trying to distract the thread away from CES, and the miller thing seemed like he was setting up a safe-claim for CES. Though I could also see Bertrand as his scum partner as well.

I'm

super

happy with my vote right now.

This has a strong feel of OMGUS, tied in with a regret that CES has not been lynched yet, despite being so close. I'm thoroughly unsure how the miller thing would have been setting up a safe claim for him, when it was designed as a trap question in the first place. (While I think SSF's comment about the Miller-roleblocker was odd and out of place and nonsensical, I agree that a miller-roleblocker here would have been unlikely and I would have voted for him if he asserted such.) I understand that if CES is scum I will have been horribly wrong and I will understandably have suspicion, this feels a lot more like intimidation than scum-hunting.

I am having bad vibes from Thesp during his latest exchange. >_>

What did you think about SSF's comments?

[JordanA24]

Thesp, that certainly wasn't OMGUS. I wasn't even aware you were voting for me. I don't regret the fact CES isn't lynched yet either, more time means more discussion for the town to analyse.

I can't see how the miller thing could be a trap question, no cop has come out and said they'd investigated CES or anything like that, and if he's scum, cops would get a guilty on him anyway. You were just hoping that CES survived the day and could use the miller excuse as a get out of jail free card for any investigation.

Explain how it was intimidation, I was only reporting what I'd read.

[JordanA24]

btw, who's turn is it for farkle?

[somestrangeflea]

Death_omen, although apparently, he's having a bit of trouble figuring out how dice work...

[ThAdmiral]

Now I am not sure if CES is scum, but I'm not sure he

isn't

scum either.
On the one hand he claimed roleblocker (which in past games I have played is often a scum role), but on the other hand why would he claim this if it was so obviously scum.
On the one hand his blocking of coron was non-pro-town (or anti-town), but on the other hand he seemed genuinely convinced for some reason that coron was scum.
I also wonder why, if he was scum, the mafia would block and kill someone, but then they may have been worried about his special power bestowed by winning farkle.
I'm still leaning towards ces being scum, but since his last few comments I'm just not as sure.

[Thesp]

Thesp, that certainly wasn't OMGUS. I wasn't even aware you were voting for me. I don't regret the fact CES isn't lynched yet either, more time means more discussion for the town to analyse.

The first part of this statement seems genuine.

I can't see how the miller thing could be a trap question, no cop has come out and said they'd investigated CES or anything like that, and if he's scum, cops would get a guilty on him anyway. You were just hoping that CES survived the day and could use the miller excuse as a get out of jail free card for any investigation.

I'm not sure I understand where you're going here. There was some discussion as to whether or not he expected a guilty investigation on him. (I'm still not certain he had that expectation, though another player (was it kilmenator?) thought he did.) I asked if he was a miller, which he denied. I later asserted that if he claimed miller, I would have voted for him, agreeing with SSF (after the fact) that a roleblocker-miller was unlikely.

How is asking CES if he's miller help him survive the day? How likely would he survive the day if he asserts he's a roleblocker-miller, despite not having a claimed investigation on himself? How would that be a get-out-of-jail-free card for CES by asserting miller-ness now, since CES would no longer be investigated if he claims miller (for if he claims miller, he's either scum that shows guilty or town that shows guilty), and can't possibly be let off the hook if he claims not-miller and shows up as scum? I'm really, really confused as to what you're saying here.

Explain how it was intimidation, I was only reporting what I'd read.

It sounds like, "RAWR, I think CES is scum, and Thesp is defending CES, so Thesp is scum too, what does anyone else think about CES?"

Does that help show how it might be intimidation of some sort?

[JordanA24]

I can't see how the miller thing could be a trap question, no cop has come out and said they'd investigated CES or anything like that, and if he's scum, cops would get a guilty on him anyway. You were just hoping that CES survived the day and could use the miller excuse as a get out of jail free card for any investigation.

I'm not sure I understand where you're going here. There was some discussion as to whether or not he expected a guilty investigation on him. (I'm still not certain he had that expectation, though another player (was it kilmenator?) thought he did.) I asked if he was a miller, which he denied. I later asserted that if he claimed miller, I would have voted for him, agreeing with SSF (after the fact) that a roleblocker-miller was unlikely.

How is asking CES if he's miller help him survive the day? How likely would he survive the day if he asserts he's a roleblocker-miller, despite not having a claimed investigation on himself? How would that be a get-out-of-jail-free card for CES by asserting miller-ness now, since CES would no longer be investigated if he claims miller (for if he claims miller, he's either scum that shows guilty or town that shows guilty), and can't possibly be let off the hook if he claims not-miller and shows up as scum? I'm really, really confused as to what you're saying here.

The problem is, he replied "Well, if I am, I don't know about it". If a cop investigates him, he can now say, "Well, turns out Thesp was right, I must be a miller." A miller-roleblocker isn't a conventional role, indeed, it would be rather unfair, but it's possible. The town might not want to lynch him because they might be scared of lynching a power role that was unfortunate enough to be a miller as well.

Explain how it was intimidation, I was only reporting what I'd read.

It sounds like, "RAWR, I think CES is scum, and Thesp is defending CES, so Thesp is scum too, what does anyone else think about CES?"

Does that help show how it might be intimidation of some sort?[/quote]

Not quite, it'd be more like "I'm 99% certain that CES is scum, and Thesp is his most likely partner, since his behaviour fits someone who'd be his scumpartner."

[Thesp]

I can't see how the miller thing could be a trap question, no cop has come out and said they'd investigated CES or anything like that, and if he's scum, cops would get a guilty on him anyway. You were just hoping that CES survived the day and could use the miller excuse as a get out of jail free card for any investigation.

I'm not sure I understand where you're going here. There was some discussion as to whether or not he expected a guilty investigation on him. (I'm still not certain he had that expectation, though another player (was it kilmenator?) thought he did.) I asked if he was a miller, which he denied. I later asserted that if he claimed miller, I would have voted for him, agreeing with SSF (after the fact) that a roleblocker-miller was unlikely.

How is asking CES if he's miller help him survive the day? How likely would he survive the day if he asserts he's a roleblocker-miller, despite not having a claimed investigation on himself? How would that be a get-out-of-jail-free card for CES by asserting miller-ness now, since CES would no longer be investigated if he claims miller (for if he claims miller, he's either scum that shows guilty or town that shows guilty), and can't possibly be let off the hook if he claims not-miller and shows up as scum? I'm really, really confused as to what you're saying here.

The problem is, he replied "Well, if I am, I don't know about it". If a cop investigates him, he can now say, "Well, turns out Thesp was right, I must be a miller." A miller-roleblocker isn't a conventional role, indeed, it would be rather unfair, but it's possible. The town might not want to lynch him because they might be scared of lynching a power role that was unfortunate enough to be a miller as well.

(1) How could I predict his answer?
(2) If a cop claimed a guilty on him, I would lynch him on the spot, and I doubt he'd get much mileage out of any unknown miller claim at that point. I'm not sure what early speculation would do to such a claim.
(3) The manner of his claim seemed very genuine to me. I would have expected scum to say, "Yes, I'm a miller" or "No, I'm not a miller". It seems far more likely for a townie to say, "I don't know, but I don't think I am".

Also note that his assertion that he roleblocked Coron (which doesn't seem doubted right now) doesn't make a lot of sense for scum to have done, given that the scum apparently killed Coron, which would make roleblocking Coron fairly redundant and useless. (There is a scenario in which scum would think roleblocking

and

killing the same person would be useful, but I think this scenario is unlikely, and inefficient.)

Explain how it was intimidation, I was only reporting what I'd read.

It sounds like, "RAWR, I think CES is scum, and Thesp is defending CES, so Thesp is scum too, what does anyone else think about CES?"

Does that help show how it might be intimidation of some sort?

Not quite, it'd be more like "I'm 99% certain that CES is scum, and Thesp is his most likely partner, since his behaviour fits someone who'd be his scumpartner."

I would argue seriously against the assertion that my recent behavior fits a CES-Thesp pairing. Unfortunately, my perspective provides a unique faltering point, in that I could be countering known scum tencdencies. Here's the argument:

Scum rarely openly defend their partners. Ever.

They usually rely on subtle deflections and counterwagons and the like.

Unfortunately, I am aware of this tidbit, and therefore could be knowingly countering this wisdom/tell. At the same time, it doesn't seem like many people are aware of this fact (JordanA24's argument is a perfect example of this.) Therefore, I could (and should) argue that it would be unwise for me to act in a way that many people

think

scum are more likely to act, even though I know scum are in fact less likely to act in this way.

I am stuck in a situation by this argument where I believe you are flat-out wrong on all accounts re: my actions making me a likely scum-partner-pairing with CES, though with the knowledge that it is unlikely my assertion could be believed.

[JordanA24]

Scum rarely openly defend their partners. Ever.

They usually rely on subtle deflections and counterwagons and the like.

This is WIFOM, and besides, you didn't defend him all the time, infact, during Day 1, you posted some pretty anti-CES comments as well, you never voted him (I don't think you did anyway, and if you did, you weren't at the end of the day, you weren't voting for anyone.

[Thesp]

Scum rarely openly defend their partners. Ever.

They usually rely on subtle deflections and counterwagons and the like.

This is WIFOM, and besides, you didn't defend him all the time, infact, during Day 1, you posted some pretty anti-CES comments as well, you never voted him (I don't think you did anyway, and if you did, you weren't at the end of the day, you weren't voting for anyone.

IT IS ABSOLUTELY ABSURD FOR YOU TO ASSERT THAT THIS IS WIFOM. I AM STATING HOW I PERCEIVE SCUM ACT. IT IS RIDICULOUS TO STATE THAT SAYING,

"X is a scumtell"

IS IN ITSELF WIFOM.

(My apologies for the all-caps, they are reserved for people who improperly invoke WIFOM.)

In fact, let me borrow from a post I've made in a different game, when someone tried this junk:

Let's examine the form of the argument here.

CDB: I think Thesp is more likely to be scum because he exhibits

A

.
Thesp: In my experience, scum are more likely to exhibit

~A

(Not-A), which I have seen

you

doing.
CDB: Thesp, you are using WIFOM, which is scummy.

I think this would be a fair characterization for your attack.

If this is the form for WIFOM

, WIFOM is useless to the point of absurdity. In the first, I am not using

A

as a defense, as I know fully well I could be deliberately countering known or perceived scum tendencies. (I've long thought defenses are largely overrated, much because of this possibility.) In the second, I am using it to attack you, as I believe you are exhibiting tendencies scum frequently exhibit. It is ludicrous to suggest that an attack on you so phrased is WIFOM. Consider the above example, substituting for A, the concept, "is named Thesp". (In my experience, I believe I have been scum less than statistically likely to be scum, so people who are not Thesp are more likely to be scum. Yes, it's a terrible argument, but look where I'm going:)

CDB: I think Thesp is more likely to be scum because he exhibits

being named Thesp

.
Thesp: In my experience, scum are more likely to exhibit

not being named Thesp

, which I have seen

you

doing.
CDB: Thesp, you are using WIFOM, which is scummy.

The form is clearly absurd. (Note that it doesn't terribly matter what

A

is, this is purely for examining whether or not WIFOM is used here.) What you are doing is taking a disagreement over what scum are more actually likely to do, and trying to pin it on me as WIFOM.

It is irresponsible (at best) to suggest that me STATING WHAT I THINK SCUM ACTUALLY DO is WIFOM.

Now, I agree that my actions D1 are consistent with a possible CES-Thesp pair, which is why I asserted it's only my recent behavior which is inconsistent with my understanding of how scum tend to interact. I also understand that I am in a difficult arguing position because I very well could be countering this tell/wisdom (though few people seem to believe it), which I stated as well. It was unclear from your initial argument precisely what you thought indicated I was scum with CES, so I suppose the proper manner of completing the argument would have been to ask you that before my tirade a post before. I'm really not getting at where you're going, and feel like you're hunting someone to lynch rather than hunting scum. I'm super-duper happy with my vote.

[ThAdmiral]

@ Jordan: If ces had claimed miller I would have voted him (or kept my vote on him, whatever). I certainly wouldn't have hesitated because I thought I was lynching an unfortunate powerful role.

@ Thesp: I still think it's possible that the scum killed and roleblocked coron for two reasons:
1. They wanted to block any night abilities he had gained.
2. They wanted to ensure that he would not be able to reveal to the town

what he had gained

if he was protected by the doc/bg.

[death_omen]

Ok sorry guys for taking so long to roll here goes with dice code.

Original Roll String: 6d6

6 6-Sided Dice: (3, 3, 4, 6, 6, 4) = 26

[death_omen]

Yay three of a kind...

Pull the 3 of a kind 3s to get 300 and the 1 (100)

300+100=400

and Ill stop there.
Sorry it took so long Nai and the rest of you guys.

[death_omen]

Ok now back to the game.

Now... most of you think actually just Jordan. Are pretty sure about the CES and thesp scum pairing BUT CES if he is scum is taking a backseat and hasnt posted to defend himself from Jordans onslaughts.

A miller role seems very fishy to claim...

Is there any chance of a cop in this game? I am thinking yes right now...

[Dagger]

Two questions:

1) What is your case against Kilmenator?

2) If Kilmenator is scum, what makes you think that I'm her scumbuddy?

1. >_>... The way she tried to push for a CES' lynch.

2. The fact that I don't exactly feel good about your predecessor AND that she somewhat defended Kilm. In fact, there is another possibility which I am not willing to discuss at the moment. Which was why I would prefer Kilm over you.

What did you think about SSF's comments?

Pretty normal.

It's the fact that you went gung-ho over it that made me paid more than the usual attention on it... and your responses about it.

A miller role seems very fishy to claim...

Is there any chance of a cop in this game? I am thinking yes right now...

Thesp was the one bringing up the miller claim in the first place.

And it will benefit us all if you all stop talking about the damn cop, not that I am one of course.

[Thesp]

I've got to pack before I fly out. I'll be back Sunday evening. Sorry.

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

Okay, so I'm back from a week of vacation.

There hasn't been much posting, but i haven't had the time to read everything through carefully yet.

About the miller thing: I have no reason whatsoever to believe I'm a miller. There's nothing in my pm that implies millership, and I haven't got any other reason to believe I am.

Everyone could be a miller without being aware of it, and that's the reason I said this the way I did.

I'll try and post some more content tomorrow. I missed quite some sleep last week.

[kilmenator]

Alright, back from vacation, will try to post something tomorrow. I am still pretty sure that CES is scum.

[ThAdmiral]

I just re-thought it again, and I realise that CES' role-blocking claim, and his relentless pursuit and block of coron is enough to make him the most suspicious of everybody currently in the game.

revote: ces

[Thesp]

I swear I'm going to stab almost everyone in this thread.

Now... most of you think actually just Jordan. Are pretty sure about the CES and thesp scum pairing BUT CES if he is scum is taking a backseat and hasnt posted to defend himself from Jordans onslaughts.

A miller role seems very fishy to claim...

Can you explain what you're meaning here? I don't understand a word of it.

[kilmenator]

Here, busy, will try to catch up tomorrow. However, thus far, I am pretty still set on CES. I dont like the idea of pairing Thesp and CES up as scum though, to be pretty honest, Thesp seems to be genuinely trying to make a go of this game and seems genuinely in tune with discussion and is picking out things that he finds scummy, he is actually trying to scum hunt, at least that is how it seems to me. Also,

Is there any chance of a cop in this game? I am thinking yes right now...

We dont know the set up, but I would bet there is a cop in this game, however, I do not feel that the cop should claim at this point. Maybe I am wrong, but I dont think the cop should claim if there is one, however, Why do you mention it? Do you feel they should claim, or why else mention it?