New York 181 -- Game Over

[dragonspawn]

You can tell he's town because he states the obvious.

and you still add nothing

[AngryPidgeon]

Pisskop was KlingonCelt?

I might have to reread her stuff, might be an SK.

Dragon is probably my strongest townread. ABR and Anen are town.

Egg and ARS are townreads, but not as sure about the.

Pisskop, delta, Texcat is kind of where I'm looking.

[pisskop]

Lolol

[4nxi3ty]

DeltaWave - 3 - dragonspawn, A Royal Saint, texcat

dragonspawn - 2 - pisskop, Egg

texcat - 1 - Albert B. Rampage


Not Voting: Aneninen, AngryPidgeon, DeltaWave

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline: (expired on 2015-05-16 10:03:41)

V/LA:

[Egg]

Tomorrow yeah

Ummmmmm. Ok then...

Sorry at my sisters trying to phone post

Ah didn't realize you meant RL days. Was thinking game days.

I need to sleep. I'll give the last page or so a proper read another time

[Aneninen]

So, I think we can assume these:
– the SK didn't ever plan to end up in a 8:0:1 game state.
– he/she wanted to look medium-town but not pro-town. Firstly, being pro-town might have lead to their Nightkill. Secondly, a possible Cop investigation could have earned them some protection against getting lynched.
– whoever the SK is, definitely didn't want to get caught because of their votes.

I'm going on soon.

[pisskop]

ugh. We need analysis, not brain masterbation

[Aneninen]

And that will come soon.

[pisskop]

no brainfapping will come. High theory talk

[pisskop]

Lynch Dragon with me. Because Im scared youre using your theories to try to coast. Trying to pretend they coubtvas content

[Aneninen]

First of all, let's see all the wagons we've had so far.

I'm ignoring the VC's 1.01–1.08. There were no "clear" wagons there and I think the early wagons (especially with 3 players or fewer) are not too reliable. From that point, we've had these wagons:

Spoiler: Wagons

Day1
– Klingoncelt/Pisskop
– ABR (minor, 3 votes)
– Garmr (minor, 3 votes)
– Aneninen
– Pisskop (minor, 3 votes)
– Flubber
– House/AngryPidgeon
– DeltaWave

Day2
– Wake
– ABR
– Titus
– Dramonic
– ARS (minor, 3 votes)

Day3
– Dragonspawn
– Shiro
– ABR (minor, 3 votes)
– Dramonic

Day4
– Flubber
– Dragonspawn (3 votes)

Let's see how many wagons were on us:

ABR – 3
DragonSpawn – 2
Aneninen – 1
AngryPidgeon – 1
ARS – 1
DeltaWave – 1
Pisskop – 0
Texcat – 0
Egg – 0

Although it's not the strongest tell but these may mirror our general reads. Assuming that the SK is in the mid-low-town-looking range, the most probable players are these: DragonSpawn, Aneninen, AP, ARS and DeltaWave. (Yes, I include myself in the analyses too, after all there's no proof that I'm not the SK.)

However,

the actual votes are more important!

The SK didn't have to care about being on a town or a scum wagon. However, he/she need to stay in the "grey zone". I mean, a player who joins every wagon is FoS – but, a player being away all the time is FoS too! (Remember, the SK had no idea that he/she might be end up in a 8:0:1!)

I'm ignoring the Day1 3-vote-wagons because of the sheer amount of the players. But, let's see one single thing: who WAS on a major magon and who was AWAY. Regardless of a wagon on a scum or on a town, because it's not important for the SK.

	Ane	Texcat	APidgeon	Pisskop	ARS	ABR	Dragon	Egg	Delta
Klingon (Pisskop)	On	On	On	–	On	X	X	X	X
Aneninen	–	X	On	On	On	X	X	On	X
Flubber	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
House (AP)	X	X	–	On	X	On	X	On	X
DeltaWave	X	X	On	X	On	On	On	X	–
Wake	X	On	On	On	X	X	X	On	On
ABR	X	X	X	On	X	–	X	On	X
Titus	X	X	On	X	On	On	On	X	X
Dramonic	X	On	On	X	X	On	On	X	X
ARS	On	X	X	On	–	X	X	X	On
Dragonspawn	On	On	On	X	X	On	–	X	X
Shiro	X	X	On	On	X	On	On	X	X
ABR	X	X	On	On	X	–	On	X	X
Dramonic	X	X	X	On	On	On	On	On	X
Flubber	X	X	X	On	On	On	On	On	X
Dragon	X	On	X	On	X	X	–	X	X

I hope that I made no mistakes. The columns shows the players, the rows the wagons. On means: the player in question was on that wagon, while X shows missing. – stands if the wagon was against the particular player.

What can we see?
Let's count the wagons the players were on.
Pisskop: 10 (2+3+3+2)
AP: (House) 9 (3+3+3+0)
ABR: 8 (2+2+3+1)
Dragon: 7 (1+2+3+1)
Egg: 6 (2+2+1+1)
ARS: 6 (3+1+1+1)
Texcat: 5 (1+2+1+1)
Aneninen: 3 (1+1+1+0)
Delta: 2 (0+2+2+0)

Pisskop and AP were simply on too many wagons. I doubt an SK would do that: anyone hunting for an SK could notice being on all most of the major wagons too easily. AP pushed almost everything... but was totally away on Day4.
Delta and Aneninen were missing too many wagons. That's the opposite; being

away

is just as FoS as being on all the time. I'd add that DeltaWave was missing all wagons on a Day when there was a wagon against him!

So, according to this, the SK may be in the mid-zone: ABR, DragonSpawn, Egg and ARS. Maybe Texcat. Because of the mistake I pointed out before, I rule out ARS for now. (Plus, he was suspecting me but was absent from everything but one major wagon since Day2.) Also, note that DragonSpawn was on all of the wagons on the Day when he was wagoned! Egg's vote-moving is SK-like too, he was distributing his vote between the wagons pretty evenly. The same goes for Texcat and ABR. As for ABR, I can add that during the whole game there have been a couple of votes for him but he hasn't been strong-wagoned yet. (Although, the wagon count is a bit high compared to the other players on this list.)

Let's add everything together.
According to being wagoned these are the most likely names: DragonSpawn, Aneninen, AngryPidgeon, ARS, DeltaWave.
According to being on the wagons, these players are the most likely: Dragonspawn, Egg, TexCat, ARS, maybe ABR
My previous SK profile fit these players: Pisskop, ARS, DeltaWave. (Less likely names: ABR, Dragonspawn, AngryPidgeon, Aneninen) (As for myself, check 3889! (1) and (2) definitely fit me, but (3) and (4) are not true. So, I'm in the less likely cathegory.)

Let's list the results.
From most possible to least possible (according to the points above)

Dragonspawn 2.5 pts.
DeltaWave 2 pts.
Aneninen 1.5 pts.
AngryPidgeon 1.5 pts.
ARS 3–1.5 = 1.5 pts. (Because of the mistake she made I halved the score.)
ABR 1 pt.
Egg 1 pt.
Texcat 1 pt.
Pisskop 1 pt.

But, here are some notes!

Although DeltaWave has 2 points, his Day1 vote moving contradicts any kind of survivalism, therefore he's less likely than he appears.
The AngryPidgeon read is less reliable, because of replacing House.
As for ABR, I might have made a mistake here, because he was wagoned many times, but never too hard.
Pisskop, as a replacement of Klingonette is a likely SK because of Klingonette's distancing from the SK-role, but he doesn't seem to fit any other aspects.

Still, if we put everything together, DragonSpawn is the most likely SK.

Discuss, modify, improve my ideas!

[Aneninen]

VOTE: DragonSpawn

[DeltaWave]

You're making a ton of assumptions anen but I'd be interested to see how accurate you are.

In other news, ARS is continuing to tunnel so hard that he'll be able to bring us authentic Chinese food pretty soon.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Texcat

[dragonspawn]

ugh. We need analysis, not brain masterbation

so I assume you'll be giving us in depth analysis?

[pisskop]

Yup. You're scum.

[dragonspawn]

Not certain about your assumptions anen. Is there some research into how serial killers play? Any facts studies showing your assumptions are correct?

any analysis of why I would kill the people the SK killed?

still you actually provided reasoning. So its better than most here.

[dragonspawn]

Yup. You're scum.

because...?

[texcat]

Sorry, Aneninen, but I see nothing but flaws in your analysis. First and foremost, it ignores who the SK killed. There lies our biggest clue to his identity. Second, it totally ignores the game state. Third, it ignores whether people are playing the game and making cases or just on/off wagons. SK would probably just want to slide his vote in where it wouldn't be noted, whether on or off a wagon.

Let's look at Delta. Prior to the Drixx kill which confirmed that he was not mafia, he was involved in the game. He was making cases and trying to look town. After the Drixx kill which confirmed that he was not mafia, he's been coasting. He's been trying not to be a threat to scum.

[DeltaWave]

Let's look at Delta. Prior to the Drixx kill which confirmed that he was not mafia, he was involved in the game. He was making cases and trying to look town. After the Drixx kill which confirmed that he was not mafia, he's been coasting. He's been trying not to be a threat to scum.

Drixx was stabbed N1. In Day 2, I had literally 100 posts and I pushed like hell on my top scumreads. That counts as "coasting" to you? You have 114 posts in this game

in total

and I had 100 in Day 2 alone.

I'm starting to think you're the SK here. You're relying so much on that Drixx kill in order to paint me in a bad light, which is entirely what scum would do. Frankly I've been wondering why Drixx of all people would get stabbed and now I think I'm figuring it out.

VOTE: Texcat

[DeltaWave]

From what I can tell, tex is the only one capitalizing on the SK's actions. That speaks volumes.

[DeltaWave]

Basically, there are only two options here.

Option A: Texcat, as SK, picked a major attacker (Drixx) and stabbed him in order to use that WIFOM down the road.

Option B: I, as SK, picked a mafioso (Drixx) who was really not on my radar, and killed him in this calculated attempt to appear town. (This would require me to know that Drixx was scum.)

Which one is more likely?

[texcat]

Not so. First of all, there are obviously more than 2 options. Dragonspawn has quite a few votes, and although I liked him for scum, he's not at the top of my list for SK, but there are obviously more options for SK than us two. Second, it only required you to know that Drixx was screaming for your lynch. It was just a bonus that he was scum. And I don't know how you can say that Drixx was not on your radar when he was screaming for your lynch and actually might have lynched you if Elusive did not end the day early with a mod kill. You were the leading wagon at that time.

[DeltaWave]

I was at L-6 when Elusive was mod-killed. Not exactly in big danger of being lynched at the time by Drixx, especially because pretty much everyone who was going to vote for me had already cast their vote at that point. If you want to be fair about it, others were pushing my wagon similarly hard. So why not them?

If I wanted to gain towncred I would have stabbed Wake, who I was certain was scum and who was actually scum.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Those voting delta...if he flips town, can we lynch texcat next?