Mini 470 - Some Guys Are Trying To Kill You (done)

[Oman]

Yes I agree that powerroles often prefer not to claim, but the language is much more ominous, like a Hulk "You don't want to make me angry" deal.

[soupfly]

Well, everything that Jenter wrote is pretty sound IMO. I think that in large part the Jenter bandwagon is fabricated and those voting for him certainly look suspicious in my eyes. It may be that he's scum but not based on the arguments presented so far.

I did a quick reread of the thread and something jumped out at me. Early on I got a lot of heat for what was really not a horrible attempt at identifying a page 1 tell. To recap, I questioned why Gator would insist on keeping his role if he was gonna be gone nearly a week. The way I saw it is that a vanilla townie wouldn't be as eager to hold their place as a power role would. Since cop was dead already it seemed like a plausible early stage tell. This is pretty logical thinking in my opinion and not a bad way to get the game started. Instead what happened is I start getting attacked. All of a sudden I found myself under a lot of heat from people questioning my logic and interpreting everything I was saying/doing as being scummy. At first I thought it was my fault for not playing well but the truth is that in large part people were jumping on any little thing they could to make me out to look guilty.

Anyways, I did a little analysis of the Jenter bandwagon and found much of the same thing to be happening. Alot of the arguments against him are not really logical and get reinforced through the "mob mentality" of voting cause others claim someone is acting scummy. On further analysis its again the trio of Gator, Niv and Oman who are leading the charge against Jenter as they did against me in the early part of the game. Gator's play has been the most suspicious so far as we've outlined in numerous posts. While this is not enough for me to vote for him (since he may just be the VI) Niv and Oman have repeatedly defended Gator's actions which further adds to my suspicions of why they're so intent on standing up for him. The final straw is the realization that its the same group that earlier tried to get me lynched:

page 3 situation with soupfly lynch mob

four votes against me:

niv

, ergo,

oman

,

gatorguy

.

didn't realize we were in such a hurry.

@oman, why you defending him? i thought you were for putting pressure on people and seeing how they respond. why not just let him answer my accusations (even if they are feeble as you claim) and take it from there. town has nothing to lose by getting people to post. and what exactly do you mean by me trying to

"get Gator in trouble...i.e. you want the heat on him"?

isn't that the whole point of what we're doing here? on the one hand you say that you like to put pressure on people on pages 2-3 and then you come out and vote against me for doing the same to gator. not really sure I follow you reasoning here.

@gator, still not convinced by your posts. what exactly does

"i wanted to post after lots of activity so i wouldn't have nothing to say, really"

mean? its almost like you can't be bothered to participate which is not very town friendly in my opinion. also, talking me to L-2 for an OMGUS vote isn't very good play for town. if you think i'm guilty then come out and say why. i've certainly posted enough on here for you to be able to construct an argument.

page 10 situation with Jenter lynch mob

Vote Count:
Jenter Brolincani:

Gatorguy91

, Jimmy R,

Niv

,

Oman

soupfly: Haut Boy~♥
Gatorguy91: Jenter Brolincani, ThaiBoxerShorts

Not Voting: Erg0, Erotomachia, soupfly, Streeflo

I'm not convinced about Oman yet but i can't get over his constant defense of Gator (intentional or non-intentional) scum play. Niv is looking extremely scummy at the moment.

Vote=Gator

I urge all of you to do a full read through of the entire thread and decide for yourself. For me

Vote=Gator

[soupfly]

EBWOP

Sorry, meant to click the preview button...post was not finished. did not mean to have vote=gator twice because I am not trying to pressure others to lynch.

My final point is that i want others to do a read through and decide for themselves what they think:

*Are the two attempts to lynch myself and jenter justified?
*Is it just a coincidence that Niv, Oman and Gator have again gotten somebody to L-2?
*Has Gator acted sufficiently scummy to warrant the suspicion of others?
*Is it suspicious that Niv and Oman have defended Gator on multiple occasions?

If my analysis is faulty then point it out...especially curious to hear from those I'm not suspicious of ATM.

[Oman]

*Are the two attempts to lynch myself and jenter justified?

Two seperate issues. In retrospect, I'd say you, no. Jenter, yes.

*Is it just a coincidence that Niv, Oman and Gator have again gotten somebody to L-2?

No, maybe we're the most active town members. We thought you were scummy, and we think Jenter is scummy. Jimmy is now an active player (wasn't here early) and he's on Jenter too. Maybe we're all voting because we're all town...?

*Has Gator acted sufficiently scummy to warrant the suspicion of others?

Yes, but not as much as Jenter

*Is it suspicious that Niv and Oman have defended Gator on multiple occasions?

I'm sure it looks suspicious, but suspicion is not guilt. We have the same views, which seems suspicious, but is easily explainable.

[Jenter Brolincani]

I believe Niv looks worse than Oman, but it is firmly on Gator that my vote stays.

[Oman]

So Jenter, you're saying Gator/Niv for scumpair?

[Jenter Brolincani]

Most probably, but I'm not entirely sure.

[Jimmy R]

Soupfly makes some interesting points, but in my eyes, the points he makes suggest that those three (Gator, Niv, Oman) are acting very pro-town. It could easily be a bluff but at the moment, I'm thinking they're probably not scum.

Which means my suspicion still falls on Jenter. I'm also kind of getting the feeling that Soupfly is trying to deflect some attention away from Jenter and on to Gator.

Keeping my vote where it is for now.

[Oman]

Soupfly makes some interesting points, but in my eyes, the points he makes suggest that those three (Gator, Niv, Oman) are acting very pro-town. It could easily be a bluff but at the moment, I'm thinking they're probably not scum.

I happen to agree, and you seem very Pro-town to me too, leaving me with Erg0: Not much action. Lazy town, or ineffective scum.
Erotomachia: Not much action. Lazy town, or ineffective scum.
Jenter Brolincani: Looks scummy to me (hence the vote)
soupfly: Not sure. Jenter latched on tight, which could be defending scumbuddy, or teaming up so that if he comes up town Jenter looks good. I feel inclined to say scum here, but not worth a vote.
Streeflo: I think town, but only because I don't really have anything outstanding.
ThaiBoxerShorts: line ball.
Haut Boy: Early days...probably town though.

Thus the vote stands.

[Jimmy R]

Just to add...Jenter is thinking that two of the most pro-town players in the thread are scum? Very sus.

I would urge those who haven't yet voted to read through and think about it, it should be pretty clear. Especially after the developments over the last couple of pages.

[Jenter Brolincani]

So far, Oman is the only player who as far as I can tell has bothered to look through my pbpa of Gator. Nobody (including him) really seems to have adressed any of the points aginst him so far, apart from to some extent Oman. WHY, in your eyes, does gator look town?

I especially want to hear from Jimmy, who seems to have an unwavering belief in Niv , Gator and Oman, and of course from Gator himself. Also I would like to hear from Erg0, Eroto, Haut and Streef, who are really the swing votes in this.

[Jimmy R]

So far, Oman is the only player who as far as I can tell has bothered to look through my pbpa of Gator. Nobody (including him) really seems to have adressed any of the points aginst him so far, apart from to some extent Oman. WHY, in your eyes, does gator look town?

I especially want to hear from Jimmy, who seems to have an unwavering belief in Niv , Gator and Oman, and of course from Gator himself. Also I would like to hear from Erg0, Eroto, Haut and Streef, who are really the swing votes in this.

Ok, heres my feelings so far on those counts:

The whole case against Gator seemed to stem from the fact that he was going away and didn't want to be replaced. That's a nothing reason, I wouldn't want to be replaced either, no matter what role I was playing. OK, so its moved on a little from that reason, but the whole thing has its base there and I just don't agree with it.

Oman and Niv have both been acting pro-Town so far. I had my eye on Streeflo but I explained earlier why I moved away from that.

Jenter is acting sus and Soupfly is possibly trying to deflect attention away from Jenter.

Others haven't posted enough for me to have a clear opinion on them yet.

[Oman]

WHY, in your eyes, does gator look town?

Sorry, I did neglect this.

I think Gators town 1) because the two scummiest players (at one point) were attacking him 2) He has the same thoughts/ideas as me and Niv 3) He's been ineffective if scum, hasn't caused much kerfuffle without him at the centre.

[Jenter Brolincani]

@Jimmy; There's a LOT more to the anti-Gator case than that. He's argument jumped a lot, bandwagoned a lot, and tags allong behind Oman and Niv a lot. Read the pbpa properly.

@Oman; How can you be sure he's not just tagging along and trying to attatch himself to you while not being noticed?

[Jimmy R]

@Jimmy; There's a LOT more to the anti-Gator case than that. He's argument jumped a lot, bandwagoned a lot, and tags allong behind Oman and Niv a lot. Read the pbpa properly.

@Oman; How can you be sure he's not just tagging along and trying to attatch himself to you while not being noticed?

Yep, like I said, it's moved on from there now but that's where it is all based from. I did read it properly, it's all pretty wishy-washy, for lack of a better phrase.

[Jenter Brolincani]

Yes, but WHY? All you're asying is 'it's rubbish' not WHY it is. Go through it, post an editied copy, then I'll believe you've understood the arguments properly.

[soupfly]

Soupfly makes some interesting points, but in my eyes, the points he makes suggest that those three (Gator, Niv, Oman) are acting very pro-town. It could easily be a bluff but at the moment, I'm thinking they're probably not scum.

care to make an attempt at telling us what exactly about gator,niv,oman makes em protown?

Which means my suspicion still falls on Jenter. I'm also kind of getting the feeling that Soupfly is trying to deflect some attention away from Jenter and on to Gator.

Keeping my vote where it is for now.

you get the feeling???? did you read my post? that's exactly what i'm saying. let me say it again so that its clear for you:

-Gator/Niv look very scummy ATM. FOS on Oman.
-I do not see any valid reasons to lynch Jenter. It is a mistake to lynch based on current arguments.

The whole case against Gator seemed to stem from the fact that he was going away and didn't want to be replaced. That's a nothing reason, I wouldn't want to be replaced either, no matter what role I was playing. OK, so its moved on a little from that reason, but the whole thing has its base there and I just don't agree with it.

You're wrong on this and I encourage you to look through the early part as you weren't here to get a feel of the flow. The real issue isn't that Gator was going away but what transpired since then. Did you read any of my post (251,252)? Or of Jenter's?

What is conspicuous by absence at the moment is a real solid case against Jenter. Read Niv's post (#209). If we were using those reasons to lynch people then I can make a case for nearly everyone in this game to be scum. I just don't understand how a townie, in good conscience, would take a player to L-2 without any real motivation? Can somebody please give me a logical explanation?

I would urge those who haven't yet voted to read through and think about it, it should be pretty clear. Especially after the developments over the last couple of pages.

@Jimmy, next time you want to post a thoughtful reply please bother reading the thread. there's no point to this game if you just skim the posts.

[Jimmy R]

*sigh* OK, again you're both (Jenter and Soupfly) moving attention away from things. This time you BOTH make EXACTLY the same argument, that I'm not reading the thread or responding properly? This is complete nonsense. Just because a post is short and concise, doesn't mean I haven't read, comprehended and then posted.

A loooong, winding, rambling post does not = more thought put into it. You end up waffling on, moving from point to point and not making any sense. Hence the reason why I haven't fully deconstructed Jenters PBPA, it's such a mess of rambling and vague accusations.

If you really want me to and you really want me to make a long post, I will.

Do you want me to claim? I will if that is actually what you want.

Pretty sure thats a scummy thing to say.

Soup put 1 vote on Gator, and didn't even encourage others to follow suit. Baad logic here, 1 vote is not the start of a bandwagon, it was probabaly just a bit of pressure.

Again, nonsense - Vote number one IS the start of a bandwagon, how else do they begin?

You then say this about Gator:

No reason, just an agressive contentless response to soup and a lack of content after being pressured.

Take out the aggressive part and you've just described yourself.

The comes this:

Argument jumping anyone? Gator attatches himself to Niv's argument here.

It does happen, it's not always scummy play. Some people make good points and others are easily persuaded.

Later comes this about Niv:

Blatant defence of Gator. We have some mislynches to us, and GATOR LOOKS SCUMMY. Pretty much everyone agrees. Just baecuse he claims stupidity doesn't mean he's stupid OR innocent.

OK, Soupfly is defending you, are you saying hes Scum? Also, not everyone agrees, hardly anyone agrees. In fact, no-one but you and Soufly agree.

Then finally, this:

If anyone wants me to claim, say so and I will.

That's a really weird statement to make, especially after you've spent the last page focusing on someone else being Scum...

I don't have the time right now to go through it any more, but let me re-iterate my points from above:

I think Jenter is probably Scum.

Soupfly is doing a lot of defending and deflecting, which makes me wonder about him.

Long posts do not mean anyone has better ideas or has put more thought into it. If anything its more difficult to get your points across when you ramble. Clear, concise posting states the facts and your opinions without waffling on or making statements that have nothing to do with the discussion in hand. Add that to the fact that I'm posting a lot more often, so my points tend to come out in short posts spread over time, rather than in one long post like someone who only posts a couple of times a day.

[Jenter Brolincani]

The point I try to make, Jimmy, is that it's not necessariy the individual things that are scummy, it's the repeating of them and the volume of them.

I don't really like the way Jimmys so utterly convinced in Gator's and Niv's innocence.

Where are you, swing voters, and what do you have to say?

[Jimmy R]

The point I try to make, Jimmy, is that it's not necessariy the individual things that are scummy, it's the repeating of them and the volume of them.

I don't really like the way Jimmys so utterly convinced in Gator's and Niv's innocence.

Where are you, swing voters, and what do you have to say?

I'm not neccesarily 'utterly convinced'. All I'm saying is at this point, they seem pro-Town to me and I'd rather focus efforts elsewhere.

I also think Oman is probably Town, but you left him out...probably because you're trying to insinuate that, Niv, Gator and myself are a trio of Mafia. That's not the case, as I've said above, I have no reason to believe any of them are anything but pro-Town. The same with the absentees.

I'm not certain anyone is Mafia at the moment (Including you) but theres no harm in keeping a little pressure on at this stage.

You're right on one thing though, we need to hear from the others.

[Jenter Brolincani]

Thank god you think I'm right on something..

I left Oman out becuse I don't think he's scum either at the moment.

[soupfly]

A loooong, winding, rambling post does not = more thought put into it. You end up waffling on, moving from point to point and not making any sense. Hence the reason why I haven't fully deconstructed Jenters PBPA, it's such a mess of rambling and vague accusations.

I may be new to mafia but I'm a professional analyst and am quite good at it...Jenter makes a good analysis actually. He does an excellent job of integrating his argument within the flow of the game to make a point. He might be fooling me because he's very good at this game and i'm very inexperienced but if we go by classical analysis, his points are sound. Do a careful reread of what he writes (and my posts 251,2) after rereading the thread and you'll see that its not rambling (though i can see how some would get frustrated with his damn formatting). If you don't buy his logic then fine, but you need to grasp it to be able to make an informed decision.

unvote: Gator

There's still suspicion here but Niv is a more logical play here. Leaning towards a Niv vote ATM.

A quick question for you all: is defending the VI something a townie would do? By VI i mean a player who you aren't sure if they are a bad town player or a newb mafia.

From what I've read the VI is:
-fairly unreadable
-likely to get lynched early in game

As a townie, would you associate your reputation with the town with this player?

[Jimmy R]

(though i can see how some would get frustrated with his damn formatting).

Maybe I did get slightly put off by the formatting, I'll admit to that. I get lots of quick 5 minute breaks between bursts of work, which is why I post frequently but maybe more concisely than you'd like.

Anyway, enough of that. To answer your questions, I'd say it could go either way on defending someone like that.

Personally, I still think Gator is town, so I'm not worried by Niv's defence of him (although he hasn't really stuck up for him that much).

Someone playing like that is probably more likely to get lynched early game because swinging your votes and accusations is something that everyone picks up on and makes you look sus, so in that regard, you were right to point a finger at Gator. However, I think he was genuinely swayed by Niv's opinion to change his vote and nothing more than that.

At the moment, we've only really got 6 people who have posted recently,( which leaves the very real possibility that none of the Mafia are even active at the moment) so it's difficult for us to get anywhere without the others coming in with their views.

[soupfly]

At the moment, we've only really got 6 people who have posted recently,( which leaves the very real possibility that none of the Mafia are even active at the moment) so it's difficult for us to get anywhere without the others coming in with their views.

Agreed. Think we need a ceasefire until we get to know some of the other guys a little better. Not ready to put anybody down just yet.

[Niv]

At the moment, we've only really got 6 people who have posted recently,( which leaves the very real possibility that none of the Mafia are even active at the moment) so it's difficult for us to get anywhere without the others coming in with their views.

Agreed. Think we need a ceasefire until we get to know some of the other guys a little better. Not ready to put anybody down just yet.

Agreeded as well. however, with this as the case i would like to ask those with scum pair predictions how you can format those without full town present?