White Flag Mafia [TM2015] (Game Over)

[Equinox]

Vote Count 3.11

Aneninen (3) - Ankamius, Antihero, Zachrulez
ika (3) - Aneninen, theelkspeaks, BlueBloodedToffee
BlueBloodedToffee (1) - ika

Not Voting (2) - Cogito Ergo Sum, Regfan

With 9 alive, it will take 5 to lynch.

The deadline is Monday, May 11, 2015, at 12:00 PM EDT (UTC-4), which is in (expired on 2015-05-11 12:00:00).

[Aneninen]

No, it was blindingly obvious that Aeronaut was getting lynched. Like I expressed at the time, I felt people were taking too long to fall in line rather than there being any grand opportunism. And Aeronaut hadn't posted anything useful up to that point and didn't seem to be caught up.

Maybe it felt differently in real time, but I hadn't got the same felling while catching-up. (I mean the "obvious that Aeronaut was getting lynched" part)

I imagine you can write most of the things you pointed out about ika in most games ika plays. When I read his posts, his tone reads quite genuine and when he has talked to me, it's just generally felt like there was town motivation behind it (e.g. 946 and 953). So my main interest in your ikacase have been the bits where you've felt the scummiest.

What's the town motivation behind 946 and 953?
Yet again, your basic point why my Ika-read is bad is the fact that you're scumreading me. Isn't that a bit biased? Don't you have any other scumreads, by the way?

so far my lynch pool is currently compiled of CES/regfan
i would do BBT for lolz but anyone else atm i have no intrest in

I wonder who's the buddy then.

Who do you think?

Ankamius and you. However...

VOTE: ika

I don't like this vote.
Something is not right here and I don't know what it is.
UNVOTE:

i find it more irnoic you are voting with him

Yeah, I mean,

do I like your wagon composition right now? No.

Do I want you lynched? Yes. Very badly.

If you can show me ika is town this game, not based on meta,

I'll join the Anen wagon because it's town as fuck.

Uhh, WHUT?

Antihero, 1622 and around. (I'm not quoting it because of its length)
You're ignoring that I've already explained why I used Ika's SK game (and I did NOT use it for getting a scumread on him). I've explained too that hammering is not a scumtell in itself, but it's not a towntell as well. My case has never consisted of these two things alone.
Also, I'm asking the same thing from you I asked from CES before: show me the town-posts from Ika in THIS game. (Instead of explaining the number of his posts in other games.) If that happens, I may reconsider a couple of things.

[ika]

sigh....

town on town wagons suck

everyone should join me on BBT

[Aneninen]

Which one do you think town-on-town?

[ika]

Which one do you think town-on-town?

lets see theres 2 competing wagons (me and you)

it should be straigfoward what i think is town and town wagon right now?

otherwise i think you misintreprt.

both wagons (me and your) are town based and scums are jsut sideline right now

[ika]

im also going to point out how BBt is basicly removing any blame from being on my wagon when i flip town based off what hes stating.

[Zachrulez]

sigh....

town on town wagons suck

everyone should join me on BBT

You're the 2nd counterwagon which has been heavily pushed by the same two guys that pushed the previous counter wagon to anen, with anen setting up a push for BBT.

I don't think that points to Anen town...

Just throwing crap at the wall and hoping anything other than anen sticks.

[Zachrulez]

If you can show me ika is town this game, not based on meta, I'll join the Anen wagon because it's town as fuck.

I think your own statement here should be an indicator of ika town from your perspective.

Also this.

Yeah, I mean, do I like your wagon composition right now? No.

[ika]

zach you around?

i want to dicuss reads and random theiroys that have been irking me

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I imagine you can write most of the things you pointed out about ika in most games ika plays. When I read his posts, his tone reads quite genuine and when he has talked to me, it's just generally felt like there was town motivation behind it (e.g. 946 and 953). So my main interest in your ikacase have been the bits where you've felt the scummiest.

What's the town motivation behind 946 and 953?
Yet again, your basic point why my Ika-read is bad is the fact that you're scumreading me. Isn't that a bit biased? Don't you have any other scumreads, by the way?

946 is at a time when I was the biggest wagon and he clearly tries to communicate his view of the game and make me see things in a different light. 953 is encouraging me to do something which he considers to be pro-town.

I don't get how you get that second bit out of what I wrote. I'm not interested in your ikacase from the perspective of "is ika scum?" because I think the case is boring and I think ika is town independently, so my only interest in your ikacase is from the perspective of "is aneninen scum?".

If I didn't have other scum reads, Anen, I'd be voting you. If Regfan finally shows up, hopefully he'll restore my town read on him and the two of us can hash things out.

[ika]

CES what your current presumption on the scum team and why?

whats your take on regfan not being dead btw?

[Aneninen]

im also going to point out how BBt is basicly removing any blame from being on my wagon when i flip town based off what hes stating.

Yes, I've noticed it too.
Being on your wagon is okay for him, even if he doesn't like the company.
However, he'd join my wagon because he'd like the company.
Both of them would be perfect excuses whichever lynch happened.

You're the 2nd counterwagon which has been heavily pushed by the same two guys that pushed the previous counter wagon to anen, with anen setting up a push for BBT.
I don't think that points to Anen town...

I haven't got the slightest idea why Elk has been following me all the time, but, basically, do you think that Ankamius and Ika are town just because I was voting for them?

946 is at a time when I was the biggest wagon and he clearly tries to communicate his view of the game and make me see things in a different light. 953 is encouraging me to do something which he considers to be pro-town.¹

I don't get how you get that second bit out of what I wrote. I'm not interested in your ikacase from the perspective of "is ika scum?" because I think the case is boring and I think ika is town independently, so my only interest in your ikacase is from the perspective of "is aneninen scum?".²

If I didn't have other scum reads, Anen, I'd be voting you. If Regfan finally shows up, hopefully he'll restore my town read on him and the two of us can hash things out.³

(1) Okay, let's say you're right. In this case, I don't understand why you don't suspect anyone who's been on my wagon Today for ages without communicating me at all.
(2) I wouldn't call my case against Ika boring. I've posted a lot more about him than certain players posted about their scumreads. Is it possible that I'm wrong about him? Yes, it is. Antihero's "Ika is town because scum-Ika isn't like this" is pigeon poop. (If I posted a reasoning like that, I'd get lynched instantly because of it, wouldn't I?) Your read is a thing I care more, on the other hand. But I'm still not sold on a town-Ika.
(3) Who are your other scumreads now? Have your reads changed since the Day started?

[Aneninen]

I've been thinking.

If I'm wrong about Ika, BBT must be scum.

(1) I've re-checked Mini #1629 again and indeed, the BBT-Ika interaction was entirely different there.
(2) In general, BBT looks like the town-BBT I know, but his interactions with me are not the same. I know it's a gut-read but it's still there.
(3) He started the Day with pushing the CES-wagon, hoping that as a previous counterwagon he might be an easy lynch. Maybe he hoped that I'd join the case too?
(4) As he saw that the CES-wagon wouldn't go anywhere, simply jumped on the Ika-wagon. He doesn't care that he doesn't like the other names there. However, he DOES care that the players on my wagon are town. If the Day ended with an Ika-lynch, he'd say "and that wagon was clearly scum-driven then!" If the Day ended with an Aneninen-lynch, he'd say "I only joined because that looked like a town wagon on a scum!"
(5) By the way, he's been townreading Ankamius, who I think is scum too, all the time.
(6) Also, he's scumreading Elk but never votes him.

There will be more if needed.

VOTE: BBT

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES what your current presumption on the scum team and why?

whats your take on regfan not being dead btw?

I was thinking BBT-elk-Aneninen (with some allowance for Regfan-elk-Aneninen in that lynching elk-Aneninen wins the game with either scum team) mostly based on PoE (you, Zach and Antihero look seriously town; BBT, elk and Aneninen look notably scummy, Ank somewhat scummy) and the interactions between them (I think scum are fairly unlikely to bus today if they can avoid it and the slots generally haven't interacted much + other stuff).

But the recent wagon on you has given me pause - not because all three are on it, I could even see that as intentional, but because there simply isn't the support for you to get lynched over Aneninen so I can't help but feel scum are happy to see Aneninen gets lynched here. BBT-elk with Ank or Regfan as a third? Ank is scummier but Regfan's had partner interactions with elk while elk pushed Ank Today (although there was a definite vibe at the end of Yesterday that Ank was definitely scum and at that point, for a BBT-elk-Ank scum team, the worry would certainly be keeping elk alive after that).

As I said previously, right now I see Regfan's non-death as pointing to one of BBT/regfan being scum.

P-edit: this I don't mind seeing.

[Regfan]

I'm home and finally have 4-5 hours of free time to spend on this game after I get dinner sorted!!!

Going to be reading up and doing some ISO's but if you want me to focus on anything in particular let me know now.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Going to be reading up and doing some ISO's but if you want me to focus on anything in particular let me know now.

I would definitely like you to comment on the view of the game I just expounded upon.

[ika]

ok serious question:

are you guys brothers or is there some history you guys share that im unaware of? cus usally when i see this type of interactions its due to a history thing

[Aneninen]

Who, Ika?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I assume me and Regfan. We've played together a bunch of times, most notably the previous White Flag game where we, along with Zach and singer, wiped the floor with the scumbags. I respect his scumhunting and I'm pretty sure he respects mine; and playing town's most fun when you're talking to people and it feels like both sides are really listening to each other and cooperating to get scum lynched.

[ika]

Who, Ika?

-.-

i feel liek it should be obvious who im askign but it CES/regfan

the dynamic looks very similar to many players who have one or more of the followings:
A) a history of playing together
B) family
C) know each other IRL
D) close friends who know each other very well

pedit: ah, that makes more sense now. it also helps me understand the dynamic better

[ika]

Aneninen
Ankamius
Cogito Ergo Sum
ika
Zachrulez
Antihero

------

BlueBloodedToffee
Regfan
theelkspeaks

a not random list of my current gamestate stance (town reads are not in any order)

[ika]

annen who do you think will be killed tonight and why?

(and yes there is a reason for asking this very scummy question but i want you to do it before i tell you)

[Regfan]

Still confident on Zach/Ika being town, think CES/Anti are town too but want some things addressed from them below re; their latest posts, need to comb over Ank/Elk/BBT/Anen in more detail; taking a break and then going over them a few more times.

@Ank

- I wanted Mollies reads not because I think she's competent (I find her reads and reasoning very difficult to follow and general nonsensical but we'll just leave it at that since ;drama; isn't needed here) but because you stating that you didn't have a read on me either way while having her in your team was concerning given that I think she'd be jumping to attempt to state a read or comment on me given that a) She's witnessed a good scum game of mine (F-16s Space Game) and b) A terrible and more common scum game of mine (The Survivor game that I flaked on). And yes, I had mentioned that the Tammy death made me want to re-look and ISO BBT much more already and that my town-read on him was and is essentially dead; I've ISO'ed him twice since and I'm not confident enough to take a complete punt on him either way right now since a) I still like his early game interaction and stubbornness with Llama and while CES is right in that the limited amount of meta that Singer has with him shouldn't be impacting my read on him his play here isn't reminding me of his scum-play that I witnessed first hand, issue is that it's not mirroring the town game too much either anymore so it's not anywhere near as much a town tell as I had previously and b) I don't like his stance on me, his tunnel on you and his interactions with CD admittedly weakened by the fact that CD wasn't scum. I will be focusing on him even more the next few days (I've skimmed his posts in this catch up because it's something I want to look at in isolation after getting all the context in). What I want now though is

your

reasoning behind the placement of myself, BBT and Ika (I want more than 'minor tinglings', I want a detailed explanation behind this one) in Post 1515.

@Zach

- Empire was the one that submitted our team list and replaced out, last list that he posted in the QT was 1. WF, 2. Mini Theme, 3. Nightless, 4. Open, 5. Normal, I didn't remember the Theme being so high and Mina thinks 4/5 may have been flipped. We didn't use any tokens for game selection at all / wanted to save all tokens on Empire/Me drawing town, I've PM'ed Zor asking if he can give me what Empire submitted, will update you on his answer. Can you explain your SUPER strong town read on Anti in the meantime for me; I think he's town too but I'm not sharing the confidence you are in that read and I'd like to be confident enough to rule him out entirely - I did find his reaction towards the Ika wagon recently in Post 1611, Post 1612, Post 1615 reads town but I didn't like his Post 1472 at all*.

@Anti

- In Post 1472 you stated that scum were the constant pushers of the wagons that flipped town (ie. that it was "scum driven"), the largest pushers of Aero were myself and Llama and the largest pushers of CD were myself and CES; last read you stated on me was a town-read so stating that the wagons were bad and scum driven doesn't add up here. You're going to have to explain the disconnect for me since it doesn't read like genuine scumhunting*.

@CES

- I can understand the Anen-Elk team working since Anens town read on Elk when initially replacing in Post 1007 despite the fact that Elk had essentially done what Anen thought was opposite of his town meta doesn't add up and reads like attempting to find a reason to town read a partner and put them to the side. And Elks voting patterns especially recently look like trying to jump on or vote anyone that isn't Anen ie. The Ank vote in Post 1456, the Ika vote in Post 1582 and the willingness to possibly move over to you in Post 1537 despite the fact that his "team" had essentially had a scum read on the predecessor (Psyche) in Post 201, Post 352, Post 369 with the read only reversing on Anen in Post 1600 due to very vague statement fits as scum distancing but not wanting to buss, the fact that the significant change of read from the Psyche slot being his strongest scum read to one of his town reads when Anen was getting heat in Post 1591 with no explanation on it until pushed for it look woeful. The more I think about this I can very very much see them as partner; problem is Zach and Ika are ObvTown, I think you/Anti are town, I don't think Ank or BBT fits as a partner with both of them (Going into this below) which makes it hard to work out where the third could be in that case.

What I'm not understanding is the Anen-BBT team, their slots interaction especially due to the way that Psyche and BBT interacted earlier on (There are far too many posts for this to link, just double ISO them) and Anen and BBTs stance on each other don't read as partners. I also don't see Anen-Ank working given that it would mean scum coming into the day with the intention of them double bussing each other and having the two lead wagons be on each other which I don't think scum would do/want in a setup of this style. So yeah, what am I missing; why do you think Anen-BBT or Anen-Ank work as a team and can you think of anyone that works as a third in an Anen-Elk scum-team? That's probably my largest hesitation right now from throwing down a vote.

Also uh, you don't really think my play here even remotely resembles how I lurk as scum do you? You're going to have to explain that bit to me (Even if just to shut Mina up as Mina messaged me saying she thinks your stance on me as of late kind of comes across as you attempting to spin me as being scummy and thinks I might be getting primed for a mslynch), I don't think that's so likely since I don't think you'd think you can even mslynch me even on a bad town game of mine. I've only been gone 3-4 days max over something that was sadly unavoidable, think it's fairly obvious that I'm dedicating whatever time I can in-thread and spending as much time out of it trying to analyse the game - level of depth/detail in my town v scum play is p obvious really.

@Anen

- The fact that you called players scummy during your catch up and stated that your reads can change with more information is irrelevant, the fact is you CAN have a scum-read on someone without interacting on them so you pushing Ank saying his scum read on your slot isn't possible since he hasn't spoken with you (Something that again would be hard for him to do given you've just arrived at the time) makes no sense whatsoever. I don't get your flip from Ika to BBT in Post 1637 at all, your "if I'm wrong on Ika BBT must be scum" a) What exactly changed your mind re; on Ika to think you might be wrong on him b) Why is BBT not voting Elk a scum-tell given that everyone has multiple scum-reads and it's impossible to vote them all c) Others in the game have been town reading your scum-reads, why is that not reasoning for nearly everyone in the game to be scum? Also do me a favour and post a list (with reasoning if possible) of your current reads since your reads kind of seem to be flipping every post and I'm not following the changes or progression of the reads.

[Regfan]

You've just been WALLED.

[Regfan]

That took me far too long to write, I feel rusty. There were a few things that bugged me when reading through (Change of reads, where people were willing to vote vs what reads they had previously stated ect.) but I couldn't find them again when skimming the pages for them, ISOs after a break will solve that.