Mini 470 - Some Guys Are Trying To Kill You (done)

[Oman]

yeah i suppose.

[soupfly]

Niv has the same idea I had in 388. Why would they waste their night phase just to make Jenter look bad?

they're not wasting it. if jenter is vigilate, then here's two scenarios where town wastes a kill and uses a kill:

mafia wastes vote to incriminate jenter

Night: Mafia No-Kills, Jenter Kills (1 unknown dead)
Day: Town lynches jenter (1 townie dead)
Night: Mafia kill (1 townie dead)

net= 2 townies dead, 1 unknown dead

If mafia keeps kill

Night: Mafia kills (1 townie dead), Jenter Kills (1 unknown dead)
Day: Town lynches (1 unknown dead)
Night: Night: Mafia kills (1 townie dead), Jenter Kills (1 unknown dead)

net= 2 townies dead, 3 unknown dead

unknown kills are kills that could go either way...could be mafia or townie. they are the only way in which the town can kill mafia players: take a best guess and kill someone hoping that its a mafia player.

as far as mafia is concerned, the first scenario is better because there are fewer unknown kills and the same number of guaranteed dead townies. also, if jenter is vigilante he can expect doctor protection so it would not be possible to get him with a night kill (or risk losing a night kill this way) unless there is some other mafia power role.

if jenter is indeed the vigilante he will be the key to the town strategy because the extra kill per round (day+night phase) will give the town two chances to kill a mafia player for every guaranteed town kill that the mafia has. of course it will still be necessary for the town to lynch/kill accurately but the extra chances are in the town's favor.

i'm not saying that mafia will definitely go with scenario 1, but it is a possibility that we must consider. and if it is a viable strategy for mafia (as i've argued above), then town must do what it can to discourage that strategy --> have jenter vote independently so that we can verify his role claim.

the only thing missing now is clarification on how the death scenes would play out.

[soupfly]

EBWOP: the second sentence:

if jenter is vigilate, then here's two scenarios where

town

wastes a kill and uses a kill:

town should read mafia. actual sentence should read:

if jenter is vigilate, then here's two scenarios where

mafia

wastes a kill and uses a kill:

[Oman]

Okay, I see your point. Except now its void, cause we'll be on the lookout.

[soupfly]

Okay, I see your point. Except now its void, cause we'll be on the lookout.

Huh? I don't understand this.

[Jimmy R]

Okay, I see your point. Except now its void, cause we'll be on the lookout.

Is that a little Freudian slip there, Oman?

We'll be on the look out = Mafia will be on the lookout?

[Oman]

No, it was not Jimmy.

I mean, we'll be on the lookout if there is no kill for this scam, thus it being void.

That is, if the mafia pull it to frame Jenter, we'll say "hey they're pulling it to frame Jenter".

[Oman]

EBWOP: What will the scum be on the lookout for? This whole conversation is about town finding out things.

[Jenter Brolincani]

I have a machete btw.

[Oman]

I guessed that, you said it in your claim (I think, or after) and reffered to your votes as "Machette Votes".

Thanks for confirming though.

[Jimmy R]

Unvote

Here's what I'm thinking at the moment - though I'm far from sure enough to vote right now.

Erg0 - No idea, need to see more action from him
Erotomachia - Seems pretty Pro-town to me
Gatorguy91 - Pro-town
Jenter Brolincani - Pro-town
Jimmy R - Pro-town
Niv - Undecided
Oman - I thought he was pro-town but that's slipped back to undecided
soupfly - Undecided, I think he's probably town
Streeflo - Undecided, I thought he was scum earlier but I was a little hasty
ThaiBoxerShorts - Possibly scum, need to see more posts
Haut Boy - Undecided, need to see more of him

All in all, I think we've been progressing well enough, I have a picture in my head of who is town and I've narrowed who I think could be scum down.

At the moment I'm leaning towards Niv for my vote but that could change depending on what (if anything) the less active folks have to say when they chime in.

Agree that we shouldn't be directing Jenter. Do your own thing Jenter, to keep it secret. Just make sure you pick someone scummy!

[Oman]

Jimmy R - Pro-town

Glad you put that one in

I am undecided on most people now, I'm either undecided or leaning towards pro-town on everyone except the confirmed townies.

[Jenter Brolincani]

Unvote, vote Niv

As the worst person in my view at the moment. I think Niv could well have been trying to latch on to Gator (now we know Gator is most likely town it puts my pbpa in a whole new light).

[Oman]

Re-read Jenter's PBPA when he said that...Niv certainly has the aspects of the "protect the innocent" scumplay, but before I vote I'd like to hear from Niv on it.

[Jimmy R]

Yeah, I can definitely see Niv as Scum at the moment. There's still too few active people for us to be sure though, especially in a smaller 12 player game

mod, can we get a few prods here please?

[Streeflo]

That is, if the mafia pull it to frame Jenter, we'll say "hey they're pulling it to frame Jenter".

Unless Jenter really is a fake claiming scum.

I am undecided on most people now,

I'm either undecided or leaning towards pro-town on everyone except the confirmed townies.

That's helpful

[Oman]

What I meant Steef, is that I don't have a probably scum-vibe yet.

With Jenter, I am thinking more and more that he could be SK, machette is usually an SK weapon with guns for a vig, right? I'm not sure about this, but its a train of thought.

[Erg0]

Sorry, had a bad few days but I'm re-reading the thread as we speak.

[Erg0]

Soup, I don't believe Maz will tell us that. Mods tend not to reveal a whole lot of information (remember when you asked about Gator's absense)

i never asked about gator's absence, someone else did.

this is different. we are asking about the parameters of the game which are necessary for us to understand as we put together a strategy. i'm not asking to confirm or reveal roles but to tell us how the death scenes will be handled.

Just something that jumped out at me: generally the mod will not reveal anything in the death scenes that may indicate who is responsible for which kill. Ideally, the night scenes should not give players any information about which role (or player) did what because it unbalances the game by affecting players' claims.

Regardless of how Maz chooses to handle this, I wouldn't expect him to tell us ahead of time what will be included in the night scenes. This is one of those "mod discretion" things, I think.

[Erotomachia]

You don't find anyone suspicious, Erg0?

[Erg0]

I was still reading when I posted that. Now that I've read through:

Vote: Oman

[Oman]

Any reasons, specific examples. I can't defend against nothing.

[Niv]

Unvote, vote Niv

As the worst person in my view at the moment. I think Niv could well have been trying to latch on to Gator (now we know Gator is most likely town it puts my pbpa in a whole new light).

Or, i could be defending someoe eho i don't see as having made scum mistakes.

however, with the last few poasts, Oman looks really bad. i do belive that to be a fraudian slip. and also, he seams to belive that the vig in a mini isn't a one shot, thoughing off our reasoning. i do belive that a

Vote Oman

is in order.

Lastly, jen, the following:

Attacks and defences play little head until someone is dead. i have learned that the hard way in the past. a dead scum also works much better than a dead town.

[Erg0]

Oman: just your general behaviour, particularly in the last three or so pages. There's nothing specific that I can point to, but you've consistently made the wrong play since the claiming started as far as I can see.

[Oman]

Okay, so I made some bad calls, but I don't feel they're scummy.

Also, One-shot vig? Jenter never mentioned that.