Mini 482: Shrek Mafia - Game Over

[Grek]

Vote:DeliciousGoldfish

because the goldfish are not for eating.

[Grek]

Unvote; Vote: Nox

[Grek]

If you're voting Nox for putting a third vote on Jex, why did you just put a fifth vote on Nox? Please explain yourself.

If the scum quicklynch, we find 2 scum for 1 townie. If they don't, we lose nothing.

[Grek]

Uh huh. How do you know Nox is a townie?

I don't know, but her alignment doesn't matter. If she is scum and get's lynched, that's good. If she's scum and isn't, we lose nothing. If she is town and nobody quicklynchs, she is safe. If she is town and gets quicklynched we found some scummy people.

This also sounds like you're trying to push a lynch on Nox. We're now on page 2. Nox hasn't done anything lynch worthy at this point in time. Why are you being so hasty?

The only way she is going to get lynched is if 2 more people voted before anyone can unvote. Which would be realy scummy. I was offering the scum enough rope to hang themselves, both figuratively and literaly. Seeing as they did not take the bait, I

Unvote.

Additionally, assuming that two other people vote Nox, how do you know that they'll both be scum? Could be that the scum either already voted Nox or just don't want to give themselves away by doing so now?

If two other people

quicklynch

Nox, they are scum. As in voting for her before anyone can unvote. If they have already voted, they can't vote again and nothing bad will happen. If the scum don't want to give themselves way, they don't vote and we can try some other way to find them.

[Grek]

Wrong. At this point in time, we lose a whole day of potential information.

I think that finding 2 scum day one is better than having alot of discussion day one. We can discuss the next day as well. The only special thing that happens day one is the random voting, and we are done with that part.

Again, the theory of two scum just jumping right on is flawed. It also looks even more suspicious that you're unvoting right now, especially after we called you out on the initial vote.

I am unvoting because the scum didn't try to lynch Nox. Leaving my vote on her would be useless.

Not necessarily. Trigger happy townies exist too. Could have been perfectly possible for two townies to pile right on. Also your lines of reasoning here don't really reconcile, like it doesn't matter if we get a myslynch or not.

I honestly doubt that there are 2 townies that would be dumb enough to vote for her. It would be two scum acting like 2 dumb townies in an attempt to get rid of a townie without geting lynched. I said that if she gets lynched the people that did it are most almost sure to be scum and only the scum would hammer her. Someone would unvote if she got to lynch-1 and the two voting didn't work together.

"If the scum don't want to give themselbes away"? What kind of statement is that? Why would the scum want to give themselves away? Sure, they might decide to sacrifice one or two of themselves at some point in a game, but right now its not particularly advantageous. This group of players has barely had time to get acquainted with each other. If a scum player were to sacrifice himself now, it doesn't do anything for the scum. They just lose a member. Scum sacrifice is, if played well, about redirecting suspicion. Deciding to get yourself lynched this early on day one, with most of the players not even contributing yet, doesn't do anything of this sort. You don't throw suspicion on or off anybody, because right now, most players have barely had time to greet each other, let alone do something either pro or antitown.

It is a figure of speech. Another way of saying "If the scum aren't going to try to lynch Nox and inadvertently make the town think they are scum." Not actualy deciding to give themselves away.

Also, we don't know how many scum there are (and also whether or not we have a Serial Killer). So even if one or two scum decides to sacrifice himself, the town still might not be in a particularly good situation, as the chance to gather information is lost.

In what situation would losing 2 scum be a bad thing for the town?

[Grek]

So what exactly is the point of taking your vote off?

To get you to stop complaining about it?

Crap!logic again. That is exactly what they would be doing with a quicklynch. You said that you don't think two townies are stupid enough to quicklynch, so why exactly do you think two scum are?

First, saying my logic is crap!logic without anything to back it up would be an ad hominem attack, which as you hopfuly know is a logical fallacy. It will only make your agrument weaker.

Second, the scum have an incentive to lynch Nox if she is a townie because they know her alignment. The town does not know her alignment and it is in there best intrest not to vote for her. If she is scum, both the town and the scum have reason not to vote for her and we can move on to something else.

Your whole argument is based on the mistaken, crap!logical assumption that L-2 = automatic quicklych by two less scum a few books short of a library. Furthermore, you seem convinced that Nox is town. Again, I ask why.

I realize that this is unlikly to work, but it isn't going to hurt us either so it's worth a shot. I don't know if Nox is scum, but if she is than the scum are unlikly to vote for her and we can use some other way of finding scum. You suggest something.

[Grek]

It's not ad hominem, because it is in fact crap!logic by your own reasoning of it and I am not attacking you as a person. You said that two townies would not be stupid enough to hammer for a quicklynch, yet think that two scum would. The theoretical stupidity of the two scum in your example has no logical basis. Therefore your argument is crap!logic.

The scum might have a good reason to vote for Nox, the town doesn't. That's why the scum might have voted for her when she is at lynch-2. It only makes sense to vote for her if the person voting is scum.

Why should we move on to something else? Your argument is clearly not satisfactory to at least a few other people besides myself.

Move on to some other way of finding scum besides using Nox as bait. Don't play dumb.

If Nox is scum, then other scum could just as soon vote for her, as a means of distancing. And the town doesn't "know" anybody's alignment. Why would the town have no reason to vote for her is she is scum, exactly? I don't understand what you mean by this.

We don't know if she is scum. The scum do. They might decide to go after her. The town does not know her alignment. We, the town, don't have a reason to go after her because we don't know if she is scum. I was hoping the scum would not realize that and vote for her, revealing themselves to us.

Also, by your own argument of two scum hammering, Nox could very well be scum since nobody hammered. Why not include that as a possibility if you're going to actually try to set a scum trap? (I don't think the lack of hammer proves anything though, since, as I've said, I don't think two scum are equally stupid enough to hammer a quicklynch.)

I considered that posibility. If she is scum, the only way for her to be used for distancing is if she gets lynched. The only way she is going to get lynched is if the scum quicklynch before the town can respond. If they quicklynch, the fact that they are using the lynch for distancing become aparrent.

And yet you completely overlook this possiblity when you first claim your vote is a scum trap. Why? (I don't think it's a good test of anything, only disproving that scum aren't stupid enough to hammer, but it makes your argument less credible that you excluded it in the first place, since now it just looks like you're trying to come up with an explanation after the fact).

Again, I considered it but didn't bother to type out what would happen in that situation because I thought it would be clear from what was already there.

[Grek]

This quote from Grek came right after making him the 5th vote on Nox. He had no given reasoning until someone called him out on the 5th vote.

If I posted that I was voting to try to trap the scum, it wouldn't be a very good trap, would it?

[Grek]

I would like to hear what else ben has to say before I vote. Leaning heavily towards him being scum.

Fos:benhalkum

[Grek]

I really don't need to explain a day one vote, no one does. NONE of us know who's who, and day one its never easy to choose.

I'm begining to think your a jester or something. I find it diffcult to belive that you realy think that.

[Grek]

I'd just like to point out that this is the second bandwagon you've jumped on in the few pages that we have had. I know you FOSed him, not voted, but had you voted it would put you once again at vote 5. Seems a tad suspicious to me.

I just noticed this.

If

I had voted instead of FoS'd it would only be vote number 4 as Zindaras unvoted in post 80. But I only FoS'd. Not very scummy, IMHO.

[Grek]

Poor logic, arguing a lost point, and coming up with reasoning that was missing before the action; you are not following causality, good señor.

The reasoning was there, I just didn't share it the town until later as part of a stratigic move. Can you point out where I was not follow causality or had poor logic?

I believe that from the way you were wording your posts (which I don't really want to get into, because it's all those big posts in the argument w/ Mirth), that you are not telling the truth. I am a huge LAL fan, because it's very rare that townies should want to deceive the town.

I did not lie at all. What I did was more like a cop not posting the names of the innocents he has found so they aren't nightkilled for being a confirmed innocent. Would you lynch a cop for that?

I don't know off the top of my head how many that is. I don't really care, because I think grek is scum and I want him lynched.

That would be the 5 vote. You should always check how many votes there are before voting. It is bad by at best and scummy at worst not to.

ok, then re-wind.. pull out the place that says soemthing about a reason and replace with random.. my reason is randomness.

That is a very poor reason. Not to be rude, but you seem to have very poor grasp of logic or be realy not good at playing as scum or you are a very unstuble jester. I am leaning toward jester.

[Grek]

EBWOP: "bad by" should read "bad play".

[Grek]

This sounds like you're breadcrumbing a claim. This strikes me as very very very not good.

You are reading far to much into this. I am not breadcrumbing anything. I am not claiming anything. The cop, if we have one, shouldn't claim anything.

Why bring it up?

As an example of how what I was did is not lieing and thus is not a reason to lynch me.

Also, on the topic of Jester/Villiage Idiot/what have you. I do not believe we have one in this game based on the fact that this is a mini and its not a very common role. Also, I'm in another game with Ben, and he's acting pretty much the same way. (I'm not sure what to make of him in either game, but I'm going to keep my eye on him because he is most certainly not being helpful).

I know it's unlikely, but that's to only sort of role where acting overtly scummy makes sense. But if you say he acts like that in other games, so I don't know what to think.

And once again, keeping your "plan" secret is a moot point. We can argue it to infinity, but it will still be moot.

Exactly, it is a moot point. That means it's not a good reason to vote for me.

[Grek]

Haschel Cedricson, got anything to say? You seem a bit quiet.

[Grek]

Okay, I don't like Adam saying "You're lying and should be lynched on LAL, but I'm not going to prove any lies." I also don't like Grek's cop analogy. I don't even see how the analogy applies here. What you did is nothing like a cop withholding innocent results.

The analogy intended was to show that waiting until later to post some information is a protown move if the information you are posting would help the scum more than it helps the town. Me posting that I was trying to trap scum before it was clear that they where not going to fall for the trap would help the mafia(by leting them avoid the trap) more than it would help the town(wouldn't help at the town all).

[Grek]

Grek, why specifically Haschel? Why not Camisade or Pug or Goldfish or InHim?

No real reason for him specifically, just was looking at the list of players noticed I hadn't seen him post lately.

Haschel, I will concede that Grek's moves follow in a logical pattern, but I will stand firm that the logical pattern is innately flawed and thus does not count in his favor. Here is an example like Grek's logic:

T. All ravens are black.
L1. Everything that is black must be a raven.
L2. Microwaves are black, so they therefore must be ravens.
L3. Microwaves heat stuff up, so therefore ravens must also heat stuff up.
L4. I could use a raven to bake a potato.

While statements L 1-4 follow follow a logical pattern, the underlying principle is a false assumption. The problem I mainly see with Grek is not that he didn't state his theory immeadiately before the vote, but rather that he developed the theory at all. I honestly don't think that's a very well thought out plan, and therefore wonder if he thought of it before he placed the vote, or hastily threw something together after the fact.

Can you point out a flaw in my logic instead of comparing it to a fictitious example? If not, please stop saying it isn't well thought out.

Also, my problem with the unvote is this: After we jumped on him for the vote, there was already 1 unvote, and nobody would have voted Nox after that because of the interrogation that would surely follow. (Unless Nox did something really scummy). So unless his vote was meant to go somewhere else, the unvote was in fact unnecessary. No immediate threat or better suspect. It seemed like a "just leave me alone" unvote, which is what it basically was. Leave him alone, why?

My vote wasn't doing anything useful where it was and you where complaining about it, so I moved it.

Also, I think Nox's alignment does very much matter, because Grek says he voted under the assumption that two scum would lynch.

I didn't. I said they might.

Now this assumption basically translates to Grek thinking Nox is a townie.

It doesn't.

If Nox is scum, the two imaginary scum have even less incentive to hammer. Not only do they lose one of their buddies, but they set themselves up for a load of suspicion the next day.

That is true, the scum most likly wouldn't vote for their scum partner. I had thought about this and decided it was still a good idea to go ahead and try because there was a chance of it still working.

Assuming for a second that two scum are dumb enough to quicklynch on the first page, why would they quicklynch one of their own? Thus Grek's plan implicitely assumes Nox is town.

It doesn't. It wouldn't work if she is scum, but she could be town and it could have worked.

[Grek]

I like this wagon much better than ben's, as I've noted. I'm wagoning for wagoning's sake, for those that will demand a reason from me.

You never said why you like wagoning me better. Please do so. I also notice you only just stoped voting for Nox. Why did you put the 4th vote on Nox and refuse to unvote until you put the 5th vote on me? Is it because you are scum?

[Grek]

Vote:InHim

He has had long enough to tell us what he was doing.

As for the InHim and Ben as scumbuddies idea, ben is to random to be easily readable(or helpful), but inHimshallibe did seem to be defending him. It could be true, but I'd not bet money on it just yet.

[Grek]

my conditions Today are: lynch someone not named inHim or benhalkum.

Why don't you want benhalkum lynched? Do you know something about him we don't? Are you scumbuddies? Until you can answer those questions, you have my vote.

Vote:inHimshallibe

[Grek]

Oh wait, I was already voting. Make that a confrim vote then.

[Grek]

You haven't posted any initial reads, nor said what you think of anyone but Nox, ben and me. You implied that Nox is scummy for being the 3rd vote, ben isn't scum for reasons unknown, and said I am scum.

[Grek]

My vote is still on inhim because I don't think he's cleared his name, but Grek is still high on my list of scum and getting higher. I feel his past few posts have been nothing but "yes lets look at inhim now" type posts. I feel he's attacking incredibly hard in order to make sure the attention doesn't come back to him. For now I simply

FOS Grek

, but he is high on my scum list.

I normaly attack people this hard. Inhim and ben are the only two people I think are scummy, and ben isn't coherant enough to question. Hopefuly AKA Apokalypsekid9 will be better.

[Grek]

That's all they are... reads. I'm pretty vibey on Day 1. The Nox vote was honestly just a shot in the dark, but with you some of your posts struck a nerve. Day 1 won't get much more from me on Day 1 besides who I support or who I suspect - I'll get to the other players when I feel it needs attention.

Post your vibes. Anything you post is just more info for the town to go over and find scum with.

[Grek]

I'm assuming you know what vibes are, and so would know why I think it's silly you ask that I post them..? I know the town needs information. Hmm, now I have meat for my bones: tone of this post seems fakehelpful.

This helps the town for the same reason random voting helps the town. It forces the scum to post some information that could be used to incriminate them later while promoting discussion. I suspect you could be trying to avoid posting anything in an attempt protect your scumbuddies. Accusing me of being "fakehelpful" is just a ploy to distract the town and distract people from thinking about why you don't want to answer questions.

[Grek]

Yes. Who do you think is scummy, who do you think is town and why do you think that?

[Grek]

Grek, his answer seemed to be that "it's too early to think anything" unless I'm reading something wrong...and I know I shall be getting more flak for this, but I really don't like how hard Grek is pushing. I agree with Nox about it seeming like Grek is trying to get rid of attention.

He said:

Day 1 won't get much more from me on Day 1 besides who I support or who I suspect - I'll get to the other players when I feel it needs attention

I think it needs attention now. Knowing who thinks what of who, and why those thoughts changed as the days pass helps the town. It gives us something to work on once we have more solid info.

As for my read on InHim. I do not know what to think, but he honestly does strike me as less scummy than a few other people. I don't like the wagoning, but two things don't sit well in my mind. Somebody mentioned earlier that the mod likes jester roles, and while speculating about it seems stupid, I keep remembering that phrase. InHim's player age just doesn't want to reconcile with the kind of stupid wagonning for me for some reason. That's all I have to add. (Now I need to go catch up on all I missed in Open. Argh.)

We could wait untill Apo gets back, decide if ben was a jester, scum or nuts and go from there. What are the chances we would have two jesters?

I agree with you about Grek's pushing. I don't like that he states it is just his playstyle, yet he didn't really choose to push hard against someone until after people began looking at him as a possible suspect. Grek is still high on my list of scum, but I don't know who I want to vote for at this point. For now unvote until I have some time to read through posts again and get a better idea of things.

Note that people suspected me on the

first page

. It makes sense that I only started after that, as there wasn't enough info for me to start pushing on for someone on

page one

.

[Grek]

I agree that people's thoughts and opinions concerning others are important to the town; however, they are equally important to Scum.

The scum can't exactly go and kill everyone that thinks they are scum, people would notice.

Grek has mentionned it what, three or four times now? It's starting to irk me.

I brought it up twice in response to ben's ridiculously scummy posts and twice in response to posts talking about jesters.

[Grek]

Why do people assume scum are stupid? Of course people would notice. Thing is though, Scum don't need to kill off people who are onto them to win; they need to kill off the Town, period. They tend to deal with the people who are suspicious of them in an upfront manner in order to not look scummy and to cast suspicion on others.

They can make an educated guess, however, as to who it would be best to kill in order to diminish suspicion upon themselves.

The scum are going to pick someone regardless of what is said during the day. It would be stupid of them to waste a kill. Knowing who the scum decided to kill after everyone has expressed an opinion will help the town. Not saything what you think will only deprive the town of info.

[Grek]

...Apo, you going to post?

[Grek]

Grek: I still think you're pushing too hard.

Unless the amount of presure being applied is going to hurt the town, I am not pushing too hard.

Also, as to whom scum will pick during the night, well, its most likely that scum will go power role hunting instead of trying to elliminate those who suspect them or kill those whose deaths will provide as little information for the town as possible. For a scum win, since there is more than one of them, it is perfectly okay if one or two of them bites the dust as long as they get rid of any power role that can influence the town. It's also perfectly okay to eliminate someone that suspects one of them, as long as the others can make themselves look innocent. So really the scum *WON'T* pick someone "regardless of what is said during the day." They'll try to use what is said during the day to maximize their chances of picking power roles at night, and leaving the more suspicious looking townies alive for the town to lynch during the day.

What I meant was "Saying that you suspect a member of a scum group of being scum has little to no bearing on their decsion to kill you or not". It's not so much that I am not being logical or forgeting to think of something, but rather what I say has to be taken into context to make sense. When I used the phrase "regardless of what is said during the day." I mean "regardlesss of what suspicions are expressed during the day", as that part of the post was about if saying you suspec someone could attract untoward attention from the mafia.

[Grek]

Grek, could you please rephrase you last post? I'm not sure I understand what you're saying. Maybe I'm just tired, but I'm not sure I see the difference.

I was saying in my previous post that nothing you say

about who you suspect

will effect the mafia's night choice, because of WIFOM. I did not mean that

absolutly

nothing you say will effect who the mafia will attack. What you said about power roles is correct.

[Grek]

EBWOP: that should read "absolutely", not absolutly.

[Grek]

I obviously think Grek is protown because I am Grek.

I think what you said about ben being in just to survive makes some sense, but mirth's point still stands. You yourself have done nothing scummy or protown: both mafia and town would act the same in your position.

[Grek]

I'm going to do a Play by play on DeliciousGoldfish:

Post 1:

First random vote on nox. Nothing to see here.

Post 2:

After about a week, she puts a 4th vote on ben, saying she doesn't know how many that makes. Odd that she was absent while Mirth and me where talking but shows up in time to get on a bandwagon. Not to say that ben didn't diserve votes, but it is a bit suspicious. Says she's been gone for RA training. Seems to misunderstand the phrase "weak sauce".

Post 3:

8 days later, she says she thinks Inhim scummy and ben scummier. Makes a peculiar (IMO) comment about voting for both if she chould. says she will be able to post more next week.

Post 4:

4 minutes later, accuses Ben and Inhim of being scumbuddies. Interesting theroy, does make some sense. If one of them turns out to be scum, we definatly should look into this further. Mirth says he doesn't agree with it 12 minutes later.

Post 5:

Makes some good points. People are guilty until proven innocent and it is good to let a person defend themselves. What she says about double guessing doesn't seem right. Most people wouldn't do somthing scummy and expect WIFOM to make it ok.

Post 6:

Says Apo hasn't posted, feels the need to say her vote stands. Unsure why.

Post 7:

Says that not having a read on someone and wanting them to post is contradictory. That's not true. Still busy. Unvotes, good idea. Suspects mirth. Seems OMGUSey.

Post 8:

Questions Mirth, puts words in Mirth's mouth. Not very good logic here.

Post 8:

Reinterates her suspision of Ben and Inhim. Points out how poorly Ben was playing. Not sure why she unvoted if she still suspects him.

All in all, I'm not likeing the vibes I get from DeliciousGoldfish. Not 100% scum, but enough to make me uneasy. I still prefer Inhim over anyone else, but DG isn't too far below.

[Grek]

I find it interesting that Grek randomly started doing a PBPA after Haschel started doing them. I also don't like that Grek decided to do a PBPA on delicious right after I brought her up as a suspect.

Actualy, Haschel's PBPA made me think they were prety good idea, so I decided to do one. I went down the list looking for people I didn't have an opinion on yet. Haschel had said he would do inHimshallibe later, no need to do that twice. I have opinions about Mirth and Haschel Cedricson (both look townish to me BTW) I didn't have an opinion on Delicious Goldfish and there was no PBPA for her, so I decided to do one on her.

[Grek]

Also it assumes A) Nox is town B) the last two voters are scum. Both of which are not proven and can't possibly be known to anyone but scum at this point.

We've be over this already. If Nox was scum, she would either get lynched(a good thing for the town) or not get lynched(we would gain nothing and losr nothing).

LIES! Townies slip up too.

I expected that if two people would quicklynch Nox(you) based on my post (which I made to look scummy on perpose in order to make townies think it a bad idea to vote her) would be mafia looking to get an easy lynch without thinking it through.

I give Mirth page 2 townie cred for working on this:

It also looks even more suspicious that you're unvoting right now, especially after we called you out on the initial vote.

It would be scumy not to unvote. My trap didn't work, no need to keep voting for someone I did not realy think was scum.

What about the third or fourth scum? What do you have to go on, they will almost certainly bus the hammerer.

I doubt we have 4, that seems like a bit to many. If we have a third scum it would be 6 town to 1 scum. once we lynch the other two. That means 2 lynchs to find 1 scum. Pretty good odds.

NOTE: Grek thinks Nox is town but was still happy to throw a -2 on.

You did read the bits about this being a gambit, right?

Worst. Excuse. Ever. 2 Reasons to vote A) YOu think they are scum B) No read, need pressure. 2 Reasons to unvote A) You no longer thinkt hey are scum B) you got the read from the response.

It was a gambit; I unvoted because it didn't work. I said "to get you to stop complaining largely out of frustration"

Someones been reading the wiki. BTW. It was crap!logic.

Seeing as I've pointed out my good reasons for doing everything I did, I'm not seeing any crap.

[Grek]

It was highly unlikely that scum was going to sacrifice one of their own in a random lynch. So the only real likelyhood that your plan would work is if Nox was town and the scum were idiots.

I know. It was unlikly to work, but whole alot more unlikely to go badly. Chances where that Nox would not be lynched and we wouldn't be hurt or helped.

As for Pug89, he doesn't seem to have posted anything noteworthy, just reinterated things other people said without changing his vote. Like he is trying to look active without geting any attention pointed his way. I Ttink I'll put a third vote on him for presure.

Vote:Pug89

[Grek]

EBWOP: How did I spell "think" and "Ttink"?

[Grek]

Defends Ben fiercly over a true statement by Zindaras

That doesn't look like defense to me, just an atempt to make sense of why ben was acting like ben.

Yuh hu. Scumtell.

Being reluctant to put another vote for someone without hearing what they have to say even if you think them scumy is a scumtell now? Why didn't you go after zindie for unvoting?

I don't see it.

He is saying he is one of the good guys and trying to get the sympathy from the players so they will buy his arguements. That's an emotional appeal.

You don't move your vote cause someone whinges about it.

It wasn't doing any good where it was. Me unvoting was like someone unvoting a presure vote once they got the information. Only in my case it was a gambit that was over rather than some presuring.

So you think Nox is scum on page 5?

I don't know if she is scum, but I hadn't seen anything scumy to make me think voting to lynch her was a good idea. So I unvoted.

I would be much obliged if you would stop strawmanning and come up with a decent arguement against something.

[Grek]

I'll

Unvote

. We'll have to decide what to do tomarrow. If he dies, he is town. If we have a cop, he should get investigated. What does the rest of the town thing about making him revel who he protected the day after in order to verify his story.

I suppose my second choice would be inHimshallibefor the following reasons:

He put a 4th vote on Nox. He then justified it by saying he misstook the Jexs/Noxs but also knew jex had exactly 3 votes. That seems inconsistant.

Did not unvote Nox after his mistake was pointed out, instead waiting to jump onto my bandwagon.

Defended ben and outright stated he didn't want him lynched.

Vote:inHimshallibe

[Grek]

i really don't like your claim pug. I'm confused on how you are a doctor but aren't a doctor. Is there more to your role that you aren't sharing?

From what I read, he is role-claiming Merlin and telling us that while his role pm does not outright state that he is a doctor, the mechanics of his role are exactly like those of a doctor.

[Grek]

[mrow] ??? [col]Mafia does not NK him; he is a Doc[col]Mafia do NK him; he is a Doc[col]Mafia does not NK him; he is Scum[col]Mafia do NK him; he is Scum[col]% chance of good things[col] Town lynches today [col]Lynched doc[col]Lynched doc[col]Lynched mafia[col]Lynched mafia*[col]50**[col] Town refuses to lynch without proof (no cop) [col]Best case senario*[col]Doc NKed****[col]Worst case senariao[col]Mafia NKed*[col]00***[col] Town refuses to lynch without proof(cop) [col]Best case senario*[col]Doc NKed****[col]Cop claims/Mafia lynched[col]Mafia NKed*[col]50***[col] Town lynchs if he is alive tomarrow [col]Town lynches doc tomorrow[col]Doc Nked****[col]Lynched mafia tomorrow[col]Mafia NKed*[col]50**[col]

* Is so unlikely to happen I am going to treat it as the one to the immediate left or right when calculating chance of good things
** Is randomly either killing a doc or mafia worth it?
*** Is really 25%; 50/50 shot of having a cop.
**** Barring another doc/roleblockers

[Grek]

EBWOP: forgot the rest of the post!

I think that waiting untill tomarrow is our best bet. I would like to hear if Pbug thinks he might be ineffective.

[Grek]

I'd like to point out, Grek, that you're missing a couple of things. The one that most prominently comes to mind is sanity/effectiveness. Even if we do have a cop, we have to garuntee that that cop is sane. Even if Pug is a doc, we don't know if Pug is effective. I also don't want to rule out other killing roles prematurely.

I suppose I could make new chart that includes cop sanity and killing roles, but his effectivness as a doc, while important to the game, will not effect our decision to lynch or not unless we have some way to find out before the deadline.

[Grek]

BAH! Go town.