Mini 472 - Cartman Mafia - Game Over

[ryan]

Sorin: We have 14 pages of content and only 4 people made a post that you agreed with? That seems VERY extreme.

[Off the Mark]

Wait, this doesn't make sense:

I don't really listen to anything my top mafia suspects say usually.

quick sidenote here: this is a really bad way to play. It's basically laziness. You need to analyze the posts of those you are suspicious of MORE than those in your "town" category. You need to ask yourself, with every post by a suspicious player, "What's his motivation as scum for this post? Does it make more sense that he's actually town?" Also, you've got to analyze for scum partner connections. Anyway, all that's besides the point.

The point is, then you posted this list:

ChaosOmega + -
DeanWinchester -
Earwig -
Estes +
Gatorguy91 - - -
J-man + - - -
Off the Mark - - - - -
ryan - + -
SorintheSeeker
ZeekLTK -

Look how many minuses are after my name and J-man's, and Gatorguy's. In order to create this list, you would have had to been paying attention to ALL our posts, despite being suspicious of us. You know what I think? You created this list simply to explain your suspicions, you never used it throughout the game. Regardless, it is clear you lied when you said you don't pay attention to your suspect's posts, so you need to be lynched.

[ryan]

Vote Count Please

[ZeekLTK]

RE: whatever someone was saying with the claimed cop/miller whatever stuff... I was not aware that those two were the ones that had claimed that. Yes I read everything, but it's been over two weeks and there's so many new names and claims

What new names? No one has been replaced.

Claims aren't that hard, especially if you read through the thread like you claim you did.

j-man claimed cop, said he was likely to be insane
I claimed miller to help determine his sanity
Gatorguy claimed vanilla townie because of j-man's result
Estes claimed cop to try to save you from being lynched

That's pretty much it.

Honestly, after I typed Gatorguy's claim... I'm kinda more suspicious of Gatorguy because he was acting surprised that there were "mafia and SK, a miller, and 2 cops in a MINI". To me, it seems like everyone in this game has some kind of role with some kind of ability (even if it sucks - like mine), so vanilla townie might not even be a real role in this game!

I guess we'll see on Day 2. But I mean, there is most likely a doctor. There were 2 masons. That's 9 people with a role (at least 2 mafia, a SK, a miller [me], 2 cops [even if Estes isn't the cop, given that there is an insane cop I'd be there is most likely another cop who is sane in this game], at least 2 masons, and a doctor) so why wouldn't the other 3 people have a role too? My guess is there is another mafia (makes 10/12 with roles) and maybe another mason (11/12) so that seems like really bad luck to get screwed and be a "vanilla townie" when everyone else has a role... and again, I don't think there is a vanilla townie here.

[ZeekLTK]

ryan... only two people have changed their vote since the last one. j-man unvoted and Sorin voted Dean...

So it looks like this:

SorintheSeeker - 4 (OfftheMark, ryan, ChaosOmega, ZeekLTK)
DeanWinchester - 3 (Estes, Gatorguy91, SorintheSeeker)
Earwig- 1 (DeanWinchester)
Off the Mark- 1 (SorintheSeeker)

Not Voting: j-man, earwig

[ZeekLTK]

oops I forgot to take Sorin's vote off OTM and obviously I can't edit it.

[Off the Mark]

Heh, I was really confused about the mason thing and then I remembered the night 1 kills.

I agree somewhat with your suspicion on Gatorguy's vanilla claim, but there's no reason to dig into that before the sanity check. I have seen themed games with only 1 or 2 vanilla town, so it seems plausible to me. And his episode makes sense for vanilla, too.

I'd guess we have a powered-up town vs. 3 mafia + SK. It'll be great if we come out of this with 2 cops, so in a way, I'm hoping I'm wrong about Sorin. But catching 2 mafia on Day 1 is awesome too, so really we are in a win/win situation for town, which is pretty unusual for Day 1.

Another reason there are prob 3 mafia. We had a night start. If we only had 2 mafia, and SK would have offed one of them during night 1, that would severely suck for the mafia. Pretty unbalanced.

[ryan]

ryan... only two people have changed their vote since the last one. j-man unvoted and Sorin voted Dean...

So it looks like this:

SorintheSeeker - 4 (OfftheMark, ryan, ChaosOmega, ZeekLTK)
DeanWinchester - 3 (Estes, Gatorguy91, SorintheSeeker)
Earwig- 1 (DeanWinchester)


Not Voting: j-man, earwig

I thought there was there changes for some reason. Dean's bandwagon seems to be gathering some steam all of a sudden and I do find it interesting that he's voting for Earwig when it's been proven that Earwig might have to be replaced (he's been nearly inactive for this game)

[Off the Mark]

One more tip for the doc: if Sorin is lynched and comes up town, protect either J-man or Estes. You might want to select randomly using random.org just to make sure you aren't biased. That way, the mafia will be taking a 50% risk of getting their kill blocked by going after one of the cops. That means hopefully they won't risk it and will leave them both alive.

If Sorin comes up scum, which I expect he will, then of course protect J-man.

[Off the Mark]

Just thinking about the sanity test... what does it mean if J-man gets a guilty result on Zeek?

Possibilities:

1) J-man is a sane cop, Gatorguy and Zeek are both scum - possible but unlikely, because why would Zeek expose himself this way?

2) J-man is scum, but wants us to think that scenario 1 is true, so we lynch Gator or Zeek. <--- quite possible, but it doesn't match my read of J-man

3) J-man is an insane cop, Gatorguy is innocent, Zeek is godfather - now this is interesting... here, Zeek as godfather claims Miller in order to "force" himself to be investigated. Every godfather really wants to be investigated, or else they might as well just be normal mafia. In this case, when J-man comes back with guilty, Zeek would have to convince us that scenario 2 was the truth. I find this highly doubtful and very risky for Zeek.

Since none of these scenarios seem very likely, I doubt the investigation comes back "guilty".

If it comes back innocent, there are a couple possibilities too:

1) J-man is insane cop, Gatorguy is innocent, Zeek is Miller - obviously this is most likely

2) J-man is an insane cop, Gatorguy is the godfather, Zeek is scum -I believe this is the theory Estes posted a while back (which seemed a little desperate at the time, but I am analyzing all possibilities here). In this case, Zeek knows he has to do something desperate to prevent the lynch of the godfather, so he comes up with the miller claim, knowing his own guilt will make Gator look innocent. <--- I doubt Zeek was able to think around that many corners. No offense to you, Zeek, lately you've seemed like a pretty smart guy, but I don't know any players that would come up with a plan that convoluted. And if they did, they'd post more analysis, they wouldn't just say "I won't lie about my claim, trust me." Ironically, that makes me trust Zeek more, because someone who was working a conspiracy would put a little more effort into their deception.

3) J-man is lying scum, but he has gained the trust of the town and been confirmed as cop by correctly identifying Gator as town and Zeek as Miller, while pretending to be "insane". <--- quite possible, but I doubt lying scum would think of making themselves insane.

Please let me know if I've missed any possibilities. And sorry if this seems like I'm distracting from the current lynch, I was just thinking more about the sanity test and I wanted to get my thoughts out there before the end of Day 1.

[Off the Mark]

Ah, I forgot the possibility that J-man is a paranoid cop, or even a random cop. (doubt he is random as that would just suck for town)

If he's paranoid, then his investigations don't really give us any info about Gator or Zeek.

[Estes]

because someone who was working a conspiracy would put a little more effort into their deception.

O Rly? Then why don't you trust me? I didn't do some mumbo jumbo crap, I just posted the truth. It's like no matter what I say everyone chooses not to believe me.

Ridiculous.

[ryan]

Guys, let's hold on a second. We've had the same 4 posters for a few pages now. I'd like to see what J-Man and Earwig have to say (two people not currently voting) and DeanWinchester (not much in the content department) What do you three think about a Sorin lynch here on Day 1? He’s at -2 right now so not in immediate danger (which gives us discussion time, a very good thing) If you three don’t believe in a Sorin lynch, who’s our best candidate and why?

[ZeekLTK]

ryan maybe you missed this from the last page, but you never answered it...

Given the recent "cop" claim... I kind of want to hear why ryan had Estes listed as "town" earlier in the game.

And I am still trying to figure out why he had me listed as well because I think that was before I claimed my role...

[ryan]

ryan maybe you missed this from the last page, but you never answered it...

Given the recent "cop" claim... I kind of want to hear why ryan had Estes listed as "town" earlier in the game.

And I am still trying to figure out why he had me listed as well because I think that was before I claimed my role...

Ah, you would be correct, I did miss that. My analysis was only after 5 pages so the people who actually posted and had some sort of content showed town to me, I believe you and Estes had good content up to that point and that is why I put you on the town list. If you notice I had 4 players on the “not sure list” as they hadn’t done a lot of anything up to that point. This was of course before our “mass claims” that have happened since.

[Off the Mark]

because someone who was working a conspiracy would put a little more effort into their deception.

O Rly? Then why don't you trust me? I didn't do some mumbo jumbo crap, I just posted the truth. It's like no matter what I say everyone chooses not to believe me.

Ridiculous.

It's a different situation. Your claim/lie is more simple and straightforward. Either you are lying or not. In the Gator-as-godfather scenario, Zeek is required to do lots of analysis, come up with a lie to fit the situation, and then convince the rest of us to go long with his conspiracy/plan. I would think that this type of player would use lots of analysis to convince us. A bit of WIFOM reasoning here, but there you have it.

[Estes]

It's a different situation. Your claim/lie is more simple and straightforward. Either you are lying or not. In the Gator-as-godfather scenario, Zeek is required to do lots of analysis, come up with a lie to fit the situation, and then convince the rest of us to go long with his conspiracy/plan. I would think that this type of player would use lots of analysis to convince us. A bit of WIFOM reasoning here, but there you have it.

Ok, I can except that as a reasonable answer. Thank you.

[Gatorguy91]

Please let me know if I've missed any possibilities. And sorry if this seems like I'm distracting from the current lynch, I was just thinking more about the sanity test and I wanted to get my thoughts out there before the end of Day 1.

You missed that He could be paranoid.

[Gatorguy91]

EBWOP: J-man is "he"

(Zeek, EBWOP means Edit by way of post)

[ZeekLTK]

Gatorguy why are you more suspicious of Dean right now than Sorin?

[J-man]

sry guys i have been really busy helping a buddy (hes getting married soon) do stuff i'll hopfully get an hour or two to evaluate the latest stuff tommorow will post then.

oh and just from a quick read thru i think Dean is the play today.

[Off the Mark]

Why? Dean has been mostly lurking and has posted a few iffy posts. I don't see him as real suspicious, and I also don't see us learning a whole lot from his lynch.

With Sorin, we have a suspicious cop claim to evaluate. Lynching Sorin is perfect for the town, as we can figure out if Estes is telling the truth, without taking the risk of killing a cop.

[ZeekLTK]

Actually we won't know for certain about Estes unless Sorin is mafia.

Otherwise, it's not hard to be mafia and say "hey, I got an innocent" on someone you already know is town.

Estes could have seen that Sorin was about to be lynched and just threw that out there so that after we did lynch Sorin and it came up "town" everyone would believe he was the cop. And then he'd go after j-man at night hoping to doctor protected him instead of j-man.

So Sorin's lynch can help us, but mostly if he's mafia. If he's not there are still questions about Estes.

But we can learn more about Sorin's lynch than we can Dean's, so I'm sticking with that vote... just reminding everyone that Estes could still be mafia even if Sorin is town though, but at this point I will be surprised if Sorin is town.

[ryan]

Estes could have seen that Sorin was about to be lynched and just threw that out there so that after we did lynch Sorin and it came up "town" everyone would believe he was the cop. And then he'd go after j-man at night hoping to doctor protected him instead of j-man.

Let me ask you this (IYO) do you think some of the scum are lurking and might have jumped on this change to lynch Sorin when he was as close as he was? I'm just trying to get a thought process on who our scum are and also playing devils advocate by using the "What if Sorin is town" possibility and also who are Sorin's partners if he's scum. I like to keep as much info on the table as I can, and not to confuse people but to play things through my mind on different scenarios. I am interested in J-Man's thought that Dean should be the one, do you have a case against him?

[SorintheSeeker]

But we can learn more about Sorin's lynch than we can Dean's, so I'm sticking with that vote... just reminding everyone that Estes could still be mafia even if Sorin is town though, but at this point I will be surprised if Sorin is town.

Oh, come on. I'm not saying I'm a master at mafia here and that I've never misread anyone but if you are that convinced there is some serious miscommunication going on. (That is if you aren't mafia and that's just a made-up statement.) I don't even pretend to be mafia to prevent myself from being nightkilled like many people do. Everything I did in this game is 100% my game as a Citizen.


This is mostly for after I've been revealed as town. For me to act 100% Citizen and for many people to perceive that as 75% scum there has got to be a huge misrepresentation there. I'm not saying it's all your fault but I really don't think much of it is mine, unless I'm supposed to suppress all my individuality and act like the perfect Citizen for the whole game.


Regardless, everyone just needs to make a vote and stick with it so the game can move on.