Open Countdown! Mini 487! GAME OVER!

[Kinetic]

Random Vote:Pooky

[Kinetic]

I half expected this. The SK is on a timer, and he just put the town on one. Basically we have a 7 day deadline to lynch before he kills again. I expected him to kill as soon as possible so that he could kill again as soon as possible. However, I think this kill blew up in his face. Since he killed a mafia he now has to target townies or else he could end the game prematurely if town lynches a mafia and gets a scent...

[Kinetic]

1 Daykilling SK(can kill once per "day" or week)(If a week in time has passed since the last SK kill, he may kill again, if a lynch has occured since the last SK kill, he may kill again)

As I read this, he can kill again if EITHER one week (real time) passes OR a lynch has occurred.

[Kinetic]

Think of it like this guys, we're deadlined for

Aug 19, 2007 10:52 am

, If we come to an agreement before then that is fine, but we must come to an agreement by that time or we effectively no-lynch.

Vote:MGM

I'm of the opinion that the SK has posted already. MGM is just a hunch, but I think I'll place a vote on him since no one has.

Its 11 alive, 6 to lynch.

[Kinetic]

However, I think this kill blew up in his face. Since he killed a mafia he now has to target townies or else he could end the game prematurely if town lynches a mafia and gets a scent...

I don't quite get this. Can you rephrase?

4 Mafia
1 Daykilling SK(can kill once per "day" or week)(If a week in time has passed since the last SK kill, he may kill again, if a lynch has occured since the last SK kill, he may kill again)
7 Townies

The SK only wins if he is the last person standing and neither team achieves their win condition. So if the SK kills a Mafia, there is only 3 left. If he keeps killing them, or if the town starts lynching them, the game could end quickly in a town victory and an SK loss.

The SK would have given himself better odds by killing a townie at this point in the game. By killing a mafia he basically speeds up the possibility that if town finds another mafia he could be in a very bad position very fast.

I'm of the opinion that the SK has posted already.

How did you come to that conclusion?

Again, more of just a hunch. Pooky isn't able to check the thread very much which makes me believe that the SK sent in his kill a little while ago but he just got it. Just a hunch, I admit, but a good one I think.

[Kinetic]

SK

[Kinetic]

I'll admit I'm not posting as much here as I am posting in my other games, but I'm reading this and more and more some things MGM is saying are rubbing me the wrong way.

Anyway, I just wanted to post a little more here so you guys don't forget about me.

[Kinetic]

At this point I'm starting to feel MGM is more town and HazzleQ/CKD are starting to look scummy to me. I really can't post more since I need to run off to work, but just thought I'd throw this out there.

Unvote;Vote:HazzleQ

[Kinetic]

Its not a really sudden change of opinion. My vote on MGM was just a hunch to begin with, and through out the exchange between MGM and HQ/CKD he has alleviated a few of the concerns I did have. I left it on there a little longer than I needed to, mainly so that I could read into some actions a little more.

And while I read more I saw HQ and CKD seeming to double team him and blow up the tiniest things that didn't seem to have any relevance.

I don't think both HQ and CKD are scum, but I have a feeling that one of the two might be. I picked HQ because he felt more scummy to me.

[Kinetic]

After that I'm even more convinced that the SK is trying to frame MGM. HazzleQ seems like the best suspect imo.

[Kinetic]

MGM is currently the most likely person to be lynched based on the way the town is swaying at this moment. I could see the SK letting the town take care of MGM so he doesn't have to waste a kill on him. Remember, the SK only has one person he needs alive at the end, and that is himself. Everyone else has got to die eventually. I could see him picking off people who don't see likely to get lynched so he gets the most efficiency out of his kills. I also wouldn't put it past a newb SK to think that killing M4yhem would quicken MGM's lynch.

At this point I'm most suspicious of HazzleQ, but there are other people on my radar.

One thing to remember is that there are two scum groups and both of them have information that the town would like to have.

[Kinetic]

After that I'm even more convinced that the SK is trying to frame MGM. HazzleQ seems like the best suspect imo.

How exactly is the SK trying to frame MGM with a M4yham kill?

So far both SK kills have been on people MGM jokingly targeted. Coincidence?

Whole bunch of WIFOM

How does killing M4yham speed up the MGM lynch?

Exactly how it is working. Now don't get me wrong, I never said I don't think MGM could be scum, but I also think that it is mighty suspicious that the scummiest players in the game seem to be piling on MGM. The only reason I'm not attacking MGM is not because I don't think its possible for him to be scummy, but because I'm more suspicious of the people attacking him.

to me, it looks like he is defending MGM...by stating that the SK is framing MGM is a ploy to either get votes off of his scumbuddy or stop more votes compliing. I do not trust anybody enough in this game to defend anyone yet. Looks like Kinetic is sticking his neck out there for MGM by posting this comment. Why?

You are misconstruing my intentions and placing words in my mouth. I never defended MGM, I pointed out what I think is happening. Also, read the responses below, I think you'll find them enlightening.

Ok, I have two things to add:

After that I'm even more convinced that the SK is trying to frame MGM. HazzleQ seems like the best suspect imo.

Kinetics post (...)
I'd like to know exactly why he thinks Hazzel is the best suspect.

At this point I'm most suspicious of HazzleQ, but there are other people on my radar.

One thing to remember is that there are two scum groups and both of them have information that the town would like to have.

1) Kinetic- why don't you answer the question? Why do you think I am the most likely one to be SK?
2) What information are you talking about? Who they are, or what...?

Wow, the way you put those quotes, almost seemed like that was an exchange between me and Mirth. However those "two" posts by me were from the same post, and the one from Mirth was from a little while back. Sorry, I didn't even notice that question in the post at the time, next time if you're going to quote like that mention post numbers in the quote so there isn't any confusion.

Question 1: I never said I thought you were the Serial Killer. I wanted to see if you'd slip up... like that . No no, I think you're mafia not the SK. The way you're voting, the lashing out and attacks, all of it screams mafia to me. Now I have stated I don't have an air tight, open-shut case against you, but I have a strong gut feeling that you and possibly one of your scum buddies is on MGM. And I also have a strong feeling that the mafia thinks that MGM is the SK. I also think that MGM isn't the SK at this point, and that the SK is currently hiding- most likely in plain sight.

Question 2: The SK is a scum group consisting of only him(or her)self. That is what I meant by two scum groups. I should have been more clear and said scum factions, but groups work all the same. That being said, the mafia know exactly who is on their team. That is information that if the town had could help us discern a lot out of the game. And SK has information on who he is going to kill next, why, and how he plans to survive.

That is all pretty basic mafia stuff. I would have assumed I wouldn't have had to explain it (referring to question 2).

[Kinetic]

OK officially FOS Kinetic.

After that I'm even more convinced that the SK is trying to frame MGM. HazzleQ seems like the best suspect imo.

How exactly is the SK trying to frame MGM with a M4yham kill?

So far both SK kills have been on people MGM jokingly targeted. Coincidence?

Well, this is inaccurate or an out and out lie. Please post where MGM jokingly targeted M4yham. He jokingly target d3sisted and me.

Bleh, no that is my notes failing me >>. I noted d3s pointing out the m4yhem thing, then I had MGM voting m4yhem next but it was really heatherlou. I went back and noticed this just now. Honest mistake, don't blow it out of proportion.

How does killing M4yham speed up the MGM lynch?

Exactly how it is working. Now don't get me wrong, I never said I don't think MGM could be scum, but I also think that it is mighty suspicious that the scummiest players in the game seem to be piling on MGM. The only reason I'm not attacking MGM is not because I don't think its possible for him to be scummy, but because I'm more suspicious of the people attacking him.

Did you actually answer my question or just scoot around it? AGAIN, how does killing M4yham speed up the MGM lynch? So far it has done absolutely nothing.

I answered your question, however that was based on my mistake that MGM voted for him. Calm down, I get it, I made a mistake. Jeez. Plus, my original point still stands, the SK wants MGM lynched no matter what his alignment. He's going to leave the people voting him alone so that they can continue to push him.

to me, it looks like he is defending MGM...by stating that the SK is framing MGM is a ploy to either get votes off of his scumbuddy or stop more votes compliing. I do not trust anybody enough in this game to defend anyone yet. Looks like Kinetic is sticking his neck out there for MGM by posting this comment. Why?

You are misconstruing my intentions and placing words in my mouth. I never defended MGM, I pointed out what I think is happening

Interesting. Why did you feel it necessary to point it out now? Who was that post for? As it stands you say the people attacking MGM are scummier…but MGM could be scum. Looks like you have cleared yourself both ways. If the MGM lynch goes down (or if he is Nked) and he comes up scum, you can always fall back on “well, I never said I don’t think MGM could be scum”. By stating you think the people “pushing” then lynch are scummier, is a way of defending MGM. I could go into a deeper analysis of why (or how rather) you are defending him, but you are not an idiot. You know you are defending him.

I am directly asking you, do you think MGM is scum or not?

[/quote]

I. Don't. Know. I'm telling you directly, I DON'T KNOW! Maybe he is, maybe he isn't. But I am not going to be pressured by you into saying one way or the other. This sort of high-pressure tactics is what I've seen scum use millions of times to try and force someone to make a choice when both choices are rigged to lose.

If I say he's scum you will just think its scum giving up one of their own if he's scum, or scum trying to mislead the town if he's town.

If I say I think he's town you push this "connection" even more, and I'm screwed no matter WHAT he comes up as. Because if he comes up scum than you will say I'm his scum buddy, and if he comes up town you'll call me scum trying to latch onto a townie to avoid suspicion!

I'll tell you EXACTLY what I think. I still think YOU and HazzleQ, and to a lesser extant Mirth, are the three scummiest players in the game. Mirth not as much, but still he has a weird odor in my opinion. And as long as you three are the ones pushing the MGM lynch I'm going to look at it with a very suspicious eye.

And no, this is not defending MGM. I still am not sure about him, I am just more unsure of the three I mentioned, and I'm not going to follow anyone blindly either way.

[Kinetic]

Interesting that the 3 people voting for him you are calling scummy…Why is that? Why is MGM not in your scummy radar, but HazzleQ, myself, and Mirth are? Again you paint a MGM lynch as scummy..I wonder if he gets another vote, well that person be scummy too?

I still think MGM is the lynch of the day…when he comes up scum, I know where I want to go next.

Continue to say exactly the opposite of what I am saying. I never said I don't find MGM scummy, and if I had to give a number estimate on who I find scummy, MGM and Mirth would be about equal in my book. But I STILL find you and HazzleQ the most scummy people here. Your own certainty that MGM is scum is scummy as hell. No one but scum know that with such certainty and I have yet to see anything from MGM that would have you so certain.

The only reason I'm not also jumping on MGM is because you and HazzleQ are on the top of my suspect list. Simple as that. And this "defense" ha! I'm defending MGM the same way you're defending HazzleQ. So maybe you should look at yourself a little more.

And don't give me those off the cuff threats. They're not going to convince me to follow you because "O no, MGM might be scum, I better follow CKD!"

[Kinetic]

Kinetic: I'm unnerved by your absolute confidence on what is on the mind of the scum groups, without a drop of WIFOM in your way. It's almost as if you are the scum, even though I don't want to believe that because it is too obvious. Such example include:

SK wants MGM lynched no matter what his alignment

And why not anyone else? Does it really matter for SK who gets lynched, if they are so unconcerned about the lynchee's alignment? If anything, I think you are putting into our subconcious that MGM is indeed our choice of lynch for today.

I was merely pointing out that the SK wouldn't attack MGM at all, and I would doubt he would do anything to prevent an MGM lynch. I thought I had more evidence in this matter when I decided to bring up this point, but I later learned I was wrong. That being said, it is a very fair point to be made in my opinion and not one that has been contradicted, even by the people attacking me.

And no, it doesn't matter who gets lynched for the SK, except of course, the SK himself. He would need to start trying to target mafia if the town starts to get backed up, but until then his killing of d3 makes it so he has pretty much free reign.

Originally I was the first one who suspected MGM of being scum (specifically I thought him to be the SK), but recent events have turned me from that idea. That is most of the reason why I've started to look critically at those who are attacking MGM at this point. I've not completely ruled out MGM as scum, but like I said, recent events are turning me away from that idea.

And my personal opinion on WIFOM: When I make a choice I look at it from what I know and choose a path to follow. Almost any choice made in a game can really be considered WIFOM, but eventually a choice has to be made. I take my best stab at discovering the motive and try to prove it. I don't enjoy saying something is WIFOM and I don't enjoy using WIFOM as an excuse if I can avoid it.

I'm also not feeling the vibe for how the SK killed d3sisted in order to frame MGM. I think it was just a lucky coincidence for SK that he picked a person at random, that person was a mafia, and MGM was voting him at the same time. Now M4yhem kill might be that since people raised suspicion at MGM for voting d3sisted (rather stupidly I might add - you really can't base any serious accusation from anything that happened at random vote stage), he decided to play along with the theme. (Although I'm no where near 100% convinced on this theory, but it's the best I have at the moment) Now I won't be at all surprised if the SK is the one who suggested this connection in the first place. Most likely to buy some time by making us concentrate on something utterly useless. And that would be you, Kinetic.

I'm also not in favour of how you OMGUSly reacting to CKD.

Most of my thoughts on the m4yhem kill were lost when my main theory was blown up. To me it just looks like the SK targeting someone out of the way and for the most part at this point I've written it off. If I notice something in the future I'll be sure to bring it up.

As for the supposed OMGUS response to CKD, I thought HazzleQ and CKD were scummy back when I originally voted for HQ and I picked Hazzle because he wasn't posting at much and seemed like scum that was trying to "go with the flow". But when Hazzle seemed to jump on me for little to no reason I took a look back and didn't really like the way he was jumping around. His threatening me like he did didn't help his case in my book, I'll admit, but it wasn't by far my only reason for looking at him.

CKD: The only person who I can see talking some sense. At the moment, I have nothing to point out.

Really? Nothing he said gives you the least bit pause? *rolls eyes*

[Kinetic]

Alright, I've made quite a few dumb errors in this game so far and I'm getting picked apart because of the sheer stupidity on my part. Nothing like college starting up again to really boggle the mind, no?

Anyway, I'm going to delete my current notes on this game, re-read, and try and figure out why I'm not making much sense even to myself.

Unvote

for now, but I'm still pretty sure I'll place it back where it was when I'm done. I've got no work or class tomorrow (today?) so I should have plenty of time to get through this thread and come back with my opinions/logic.

[Kinetic]

Mod can we get an extended SK deadline because College Classes start this week and I for one can't post almost at all? Maybe just a couple of days?

[Kinetic]

Vote:HazzleQ

If we are going to do any lynch before SK kill tomorrow, I think he is the best bet.

[Kinetic]

/agree with MGM.

[Kinetic]

I understand what xyzzy is talking about. I felt very similar about CKD at that point.

And Mirth I thought I already addressed that... I didn't lie intentionally. If HQ's entire reason to throw my suspicions in my face is because I made a mistake (something he's done multiple times, yet is surprisingly lax about it), then that is just hypocritical.

In one of those posts I wrote comments similar to both of the ones he quoted. I looked at that and for some reason was convinced that I saw both of them in that post and didn't notice the post before it (even though I thought I looked). I wouldn't intentionally lie about something that is so easily proved false, or at least I would hope you'd think something like that would be just dumb. I'll admit, it was dumb, but I can't see a reason for anyone, regardless of alignment to do that unless it was a mistake. I still feel strongly about HQ being scum enough to vote him.

[Kinetic]

Is CKD... defending HQ because he might be mafia?

Wow...

CKD, simple as this, if HQ isn't SK and is mafia, I'll be completely fine with lynching him. At this point, almost any lynch will help us because of the information we can gain from it. I really wanted to push the town to lynch before the second SK kill, but if you are really saying you'd rather the town be completely stale until we have a concrete, airtight case, then you are scum scum scum. We're not going to have any really good information until we start lynching. With the SK killing every Sunday, that means we need to get something going quickly. HQ is my main choice, but you're not far down the list.

If it is a choice between Hazzle and you, thats a hard choice in my opinion, but no one else is really sticking out as scummy in my book.

[Kinetic]

I'm not twisting your words around! You said it again! Of course the SK needs to die, and I think we need to find him, but giving him extra kills and still not lynching hasn't been helping us at all! If hazzle is not the SK but is mafia, I won't shed a tear at all! In case you were forgetting, both the mafia and the SK need to die. I think HQ could be SK, but think its more likely he's teamscum. But I'm not going to NOT lynch HQ because he might not be the SK!

[Kinetic]

If she comes up town, yes, that sucks. Wanna know what is worse? A town that is paralyzed and refuses to lynch with a DAYKILLING SK loose! One whose Daykills refresh weekly! At this point we need to stop with the crap and start with the lynching.

If you think HQ is town: EXPLAIN WHY!

If you think you have a better choice for SK: EXPLAIN WHY!

Don't just say "o no, he might not be, we should wait guys until the SK kills again..".......

[Kinetic]

then you are either short sighted, foolish, or the SK.

our focus should be the SK...of course I want to lynch mafia..but again, if Hazzel comes up town...what then?

Oh.... my.... god......

YOU SAID IT AGAIN! Killing mafia is just as important as killing the SK! In fact, finding the mafia might even be HARDER in this game than finding the SK because they can't kill. I won't lose sleep over lynching in a deadlined game.

[Kinetic]

And your twisted defense of HQ is noted CKD. If he does come up teamscum we know who his partner might be.

[Kinetic]

when we lynch, that Daykilled is really sped up isnt it?

If we continually derail lynches the only person who wins is the Serial Killer. Lynching is the only way the town gets concrete information.

I dont think that Hazzel is the SK because she a.) didnt know this game was going on until after the first Daykill and b.) she was having problems posting here in general. If you actually read the thread you would know this…

Yet that still doesn't talk about the main issue, you have a problem trying to find MAFIA. In case you didn't realize the town needs to kill them too!

I think you might be the SK or at least scum!

Vote: Kinetic

Your lack of desire to find the SK immediately.

Your certainty that HQ only makes me think you are not the SK either, but that doesn't mean I don't think you're scum. You're right, I don't know who the SK is, how can I hunt something I'm not 100% sure of! I know that there are mafia out there too, and I also know that people who are suspicious can be either mafia or SK. So I'm going to hunt them both and vote for the person I find who I think has the best chance of being scum. Trust me, you're second on my list.

You appear lynch hungry.

I'm not lynch hungry... I'm town who knows the important of lynching in a deadlined game! You're either a scum trying to avoid losing a scum buddy or a townie that doesn't know the importance of a lynch.

You have seemed to attach yourself to MGM.

No, you and HQ attached me to MGM, I pointed out the idiocy behind your attacks on him.

You assumed the SK was trying to frame MGM?

Which I admitted that my case was slightly wrong when I confused who MGM voted for, but the main point was that the SK didn't attack anyone pushing MGM. Seemed quite odd that the SK avoided that whole thing all together.

Your overall play in this thread is scummy. I think this is our best bet for a lynch today…Especially if Hazzel is lynched and come up town.

Self Fulfilling prophecy? This is another comment that makes me think you're not SK but still scum. You call me scummy but all your 'reasons' are false. You say I'm the best bet only because you think I might be the SK. But let me throw this back at you, what if I'm town? Kind of useless to say, no? But you keep saying it to defend HQ.

What game are you playing? Are you teamscum and you know that HQ is town and want to push for me to be lynched after that happens? No, I'm pretty sure that if HQ comes up town (which I'm pretty sure won't happen), but if that

did

happen, I would look closer at your absolute certainty of that fact as much more scummy than anything else.

And your twisted defense of HQ is noted CKD. If he does come up teamscum we know who his partner might be.

again with the words in my mouth..I have not defended Hazzel..hopefully the town notes you are trying to set me up for something...

that being said, SK feel free to pop me off next Daykill...I think once the town sees I am town...much of this conversation will be telling. Matter of fact I dare you to Daykill me!

Absolute total BS. You call what I did defending MGM but this outright defense of HQ is so obvious it doesn't need me to point it out.

Sounds verrrrry scummy to me. Heck, I'd unvote and vote you if I thought we could get you to lynch before Sunday. But with the way this town jumps and jives (it doesn't...), I think I might just derail the HQ lynch if I did so.

But you know, there is a better way to "prove" your story. Hammer HQ. You're so sure, hammer him. But you won't. No way, if he's town and you're scum there is no way you'll go near this wagon. You're more likely to hammer him if he's your scum buddy than if he isn't.

[Kinetic]

I'm pretty sure I've been against CKD/HQ this entire time. And I have no problem with lynching CKD if we can get it done before Sunday... But at this rate if we don't lynch SOMEONE this Sunday we are going to lose. Either to the mafia or the SK. There are 9 people left, 3 of who are mafia, 1 who is the SK. That basically means that if we don't lynch this Sunday and the SK doesn't hit a Mafia, then the mafia will basically control the vote and can start hunting the SK for the virtual win. That is what makes me even MORE scared that CKD is mafia. He has all but admitted that HQ and him are mafia, but says we should avoid that because the SK is still around. Well guess what, for the mafia the SK IS the biggest threat, but at this rate the Mafia may be a bigger threat to the town than the SK...

[Kinetic]

He has all but admitted that HQ and him are mafia, but says we should avoid that because the SK is still around.

How?

No, really, how?


I'd like an actual explanation out of you.

The way CKD is basically saying "ignore the HQ behind the big mafia curtain, let's only search for the SK". I find that scummy as hell. I'm pretty sure I said that... And you don't need to ask like that, if you would have just asked once I would have responded. I'm not avoiding exactly avoiding conversation...

Also, looking at the flipside, if we mislynch and then the SK hits town again, then we are even more screwed.

Now, we are at nine. The SK doesn't care who swings. So this means 3 mafia will try to vote someone who isn't them, SK will vote whoever. Town is in the dark. If we kill a townie, one of two things happen.
a) SK kills townie, we are at 7, with three mafia, three townies, 1 SK. SK will go with the most likely lynch. So a townie will probably die. That would mean the day starts off with five. At that point it would be most likely for the SK to have killed a mafia player overnight. Mafia have a 1/3 chance of lynching correctly then, but would need a townie to go along with them. Either way, this scenerio is bad, bad, very bad.
b) SK kills mafia, we are at 7. 2 mafia, 1 SK, 4 townies. Mafia will most likely wagon on someone, and I assume the SK would join in. So a townie will probably die. At night it would be more statstically sound for a townie dying again. See above.

I'm going to purpose at, statistically speaking, since Hazel has 4 votes, there has to be at least 1 scum voting Hazel, most likely 2.

I'm not going to downplay the bad that happens if we mislynch. Its bad, I agree, thats why I'm pushing for at least a mafia lynch. The problem with letting the mafia try and headhunt the SK at this point is that they are MUCH more likely to hit a townie than a SK. If we go to the lynch saying we want to hit a mafia or the SK, we have a much better chance at getting one or the other.

But even in both your options, the town doesn't immediately lose. In fact, your B option could also work if the town lynched a mafia and the SK killed a townie. Honestly, Option B is not too bad a position for the town in, and I really don't think you have it right at all. The mafia are not going to act that scummy.

But let's see you put your vote where your mouth is.

Unvote:Vote:CKD

But we need to make a decision by Sunday, so that means everyone who is being so critical for the town needs to be here.

[Kinetic]

VC:
4 HazzelQ(

Kinetic, MGM, Stewie HeatherLou

)
1 MGM ( HazzelQ)
1 Kinetic(CuriousKarmaDog)

Watch this vote count, there is SK on that list, I'm sure of it.

I'm sorry Raffles, we haven't been introduced, you keep lurking and giving one liners like that.

The only two people not voting on that list are Mirth and yourself. I'd like it if you gave me your opinions on CKD and HQ. Now would be preferable, before the lynch. Since both are at -3, if you feel strongly about either I also wouldn't see the harm in you voting as such.

What is most interesting about your post though is that HQ/CKD I've already stated I don't think are SKs. I'm pretty sure one or both is mafia. You, on the other hand, I think could be either SK or Mafia. Mirth I'm not too sure about, but I don't think she's mafia.

Right now, if I had to choose, I would say that the mafia are:

HQ, Raffles, and CKD
and the SK is either Stewie or Mirth

I would really like it if everyone else made a similar list. It would help us all get on the same page, and it may enlighten us after some of the killing happens.

[Kinetic]

HazzelQ is probably as closed as confimed anyone can get on not being SK. Why? Because of Jeep. Then why one of those 4 voters? Because if SK isn't on that list, he'd have easily hammered.

I don't agree with the SK hammering out of turn. Seems like the SK would wait and see if he could go another week with a no lynch. Heck, if he did, he would get another kill before we lynched (His timer resets after a kill too). As such, I find people who are slow to vote more likely to be SK material, thus Mirth and Stewie are higher on my SK list, then say, you or MGM.

From looking at the kills, the SK seems to be a good time-keeper, never late to submit his executions. What does that mean? Someone who checks back often (not neccessarily to post, however).

No... not at all. In fact, the SK has been targeting inactives, something which he could plan well in advance, tell the Mod, and when the appointed time comes... bam. He could be a lurker type like you or Stewie easily...

HazzelQ wouldn't have been particularly the hard one to place hammer on either. So why wasn't he hammered? Because SK is already on the wagon. It's in the SK's interest to have a lynch occuring at fastest possible pace, so he can speed up on the rate of kill.

No... its in the SK's best interest that no lynch take place, his kill to lynch ratio raises every time we fail.

Incidentally, this is why I didn't hammer, although I was going to later. One kill a week is more than enough for our SK, we don't need to feed him more.

It doesn't matter when he kills at all. The timer resets completely. If we lynch now or Saturday night, his kill to lynch ratio stays the same. If we no lynch his ratio rises though...

I'm a tad confused by you saying "before the lynch" too, no one is on L-1 atm, are they?

Its very simple, someone better be lynched before Sunday or the town win becomes bleak. Even with a town lynch we at least have a better chance than with no lynch. I wanted peoples opinions in stone so IF that happens I'll have more to look at after the first lynch to try and find scum.

What I can't fathom is why would you get less information from SK kill than a lynch? I mean, what difference does it make, so long as the one killed by SK was active? I can ssure you SK will keep up one a week. He won't feel sorry for little, helpless, powerless, spineless, cheeseless mafias and townies, I'm sure of that. And I think it's a bigger interest of SK to kill mafia rather than townies anyway. So if anything, SK will be playing more like a vig (until all mafia is dead).

You almost sounds like the SK... its creepy. Stop giving him all these pats on the back. Anyway, the core of your question is false though, he has yet to kill anyone active. On top of that, a lynch gives us bandwagon information, something to look back on and concretely say: You did this and this happened, explain yourself, it gives the town a hand in trying to find scum, etc etc etc. What you're saying is ludicrous.

CKD: I still stand by that he is talking sense. Unless you can convince me otherwise with a good reasoning, I'm not going to vote for him just yet.

CKDs buddying with HQ mid-game
CKD's defending HQ
CKD refusing to try and help find scum

The fact that you don't see any of this makes me even more suspicious that you might just be CKD's scum partner. CKD-HQ-Raffles, if that is the mafia group I'd laugh my ass off. I don't think its possible to find all three this early, but that's my best bet right now.

[Kinetic]

CKD, stop calling for yourself to be killed. If you

were

a townie as you claim that would be a bad thing, no? I'm sorry, I don't believe you.

[quote=Kinetic]He has all but admitted that HQ and him are mafia, but says we should avoid that because the SK is still around.[/quote]

[quote=CKD]what? I have admitted Hazzel and I are mafia?TOWN IF YOU DO NOT SEE KINETIC FOR WHAT HE IS YOU ARE BLIND!?[/quote]

I realize you seem to have trouble with the english language. What I said is you have done everything except admit you two were mafia. But to me, all the signs are there. Also, if you are a townie, stop talking to the town like you are not a part of it

I am not lying. I have explained everything I have seen to the best of my ability. Stop calling me a liar just because you have trouble understanding grammer.

And what part of my case am I lying about? You are actively discouraging trying to find mafia! You are actively discouraging lynching!

And Mirth, its this simple, I am willing to lynch either CKD or HQ. I prefer CKD and if we CAN get a lynch going on him before deadline then I would like to go with that. If we can't, I know we can get a lynch on HQ. I will be around and will switch my vote back if so. But I would like to see how far this will go first.

Raffles: Because he's only killed twice? Are you telling me his kills havn't been on inactive players?

And seriously, if you don't see why no lynch is bad for the town by now than maybe I should just resign myself to a town loss now... Its so fundamental that I can't believe I'm actually pulling teeth here to try and LYNCH before a deadline...

If anyone REALLY thinks that the mafia is CKD/HQ/Me, then you are one sick person. I will personally help lynch either of those two. I'm positive one if not both of them are scum.

Raffles: In order, who are the scummiest people in this game in your opinion. Have you voted at all this game? Or made any concrete decision? All I seem to see from you is lazy comments from the peanut gallery.

I've got class in 5 minutes, I've got to go. But please, make some progress... any progress. Hell I would self hammer myself if it meant a lynch before deadline because I HONESTLY believe the town will lose unless there is some lynch. EVEN if they lynch a townie they still have a chance in hell, which is better than what is going on now.

[Kinetic]

I realize you seem to have trouble with the english language. What I said is you have done everything except admit you two were mafia. But to me, all the signs are there. Also, if you are a townie, stop talking to the town like you are not a part of it

Nice insults, seems the more pressure that is on you the uglier your play gets

They weren't meant as insults, and I tried to pick my wording carefully as not to be seen that way. I'm serious, I've noticed many grammar errors in almost all of your responses and it makes me think that english is your second language is all. I could go back and document them all, but I think that would be insulting.

I am not lying. I have explained everything I have seen to the best of my ability. Stop calling me a liar just because you have trouble understanding grammer.

yes, yes you are..more insults..good for you

You keep calling me a liar and that is not the way it is >>. You're insulting me by saying that and I keep trying to show you I'm not "lying". We have differing opinions, and someone might be wrong, but that doesn't mean they are lying.

And what part of my case am I lying about? You are actively discouraging trying to find mafia! You are actively discouraging lynching!

Now that you have moved your votes away from Hazzel, we are that much further away from a lynch, who is actively against lynching now? please show me where I am actively discouraging trying to find mafia? THIS...IS...A...LIE. Unless you are saying that you know HazzelQ is mafia? How do you know that Kinetic? Are you trying to sacrifice one of your own?

And both MGM and myself will be here before Saturday. If no lynch on you happens before then, then we can easily change back. I would like to see how far this is going to go. We are still effectively at town day one with no lynch and we are almost at LYLO! That doesn't bother you?! Plus:

so I guess my real question is are the people voting for Hazzel voting for her because she is mafia or because she is the SK. Personally I think we need to find the SK immediately. How do we do that? I do not know (first time in a game with a SK)....Mirth, in the huge PBP did anything stick out that was SK like?

I said I think we should lynch the SK..I do not think it is possible for Hazzel to be the SK..simple as that...if we lynch now and we do not hit the SK (we lose two more people from the pool) Why dont you think it is important to look for the SK now Kinetic?

You have stated very clearly in these two posts that you think that lynching mafia is not worth it. You stated we should only be looking for the SK, and that looking for anyone else is wrong.

In the first post you actually asked if people thought HQ was Mafia or SK, and then said you didn't think he was the SK, and that we should not lynch him because his chance of being the SK is low...

You continue to say that we should only target the SK, call me the SK but you then say you think I'm in the mafia with MGM. You can't have it both ways.

And Mirth, its this simple, I am willing to lynch either CKD or HQ. I prefer CKD and if we CAN get a lynch going on him before deadline then I would like to go with that. If we can't, I know we can get a lynch on HQ. I will be around and will switch my vote back if so. But I would like to see how far this will go first.

I want everyone to remember Kinetic was strongly pushing my lynch!!! The SK is going to kill someone...why do you care if he hits me Kinetic? If you lynch HazzelQ and the SK hits me...then your proposed scum group is gone (uh oh Kinetic, looks like your arguement has hit a wall)....I want the SK to hit me, so the town sees you for what you are...I would rather the town lynch scum today..not lynch me.

Obviously everyone is going to remember ... >> I stand by my cases, you keep backing up and around, turning and spinning. Its funny, half the players think this is a fake fight and you keep telling them that you're effectively being bullied >>.

And you goading the SK isn't going to influence him to do anything. You'll just be creating a WIFOM situation that is honestly just annoying to read.

If you die and come up town, its WIFOM. If you die and come up scum, its WIFOM. If you die and come up SK... well that would be quite humorous if the SK did the killing....

That doesn't change my opinion. I think you are scum, and I think HQ is also scum. Simple as that. I willing to vote either of you right now, and at this point I don't think there is much that can convince me to vote anyone else before the looming deadline.

[Kinetic]

Stop. Acting. Like. This. CKD.

You're not listening to your own backwards logic. You think I'm mafia or SK, so your coloring everything I do like that because of it. Everything I say, you think has malice. Everything I do has some weird ulterior motive.

Do this for me: Re-read everything I've written, but just imagine that I'm town while doing it. Imagine that I'm confirmed and see that there is a possibility that some of my mistakes are not intentional like you think but they are clumsy or misguided.

I still think you're scum, but for some reason I'm having a few doubts about you. And they have nothing to do with you. I'm at work, and I really can't explain, later tonight I will though.

[Kinetic]

Alright, it looks like something on CKD is not going to happen today.

Unvote;Vote:HQ

That should put him at -1, so he should be hammered before the end of the day Sat. I might not be around before then so I need to vote now so we don't mistakenly miss another lynch.

[Kinetic]

Mirth: I already addressed this, the SK doesn't get any "extra time" if we lynch early. If its already decided at this point then it doesn't matter what we do tomorrow unless we completely change our minds. Thats why I tried to see if we could do anything else before I settled on HQ.

At this point I don't think anything will happen. All that will happen is you lynch now is you will reset the SK's timer for day kill. And theoretically, depending on how long he takes to day kill his next victim after lynch we will have a little more than a week from the time the lynch is finalized before we must lynch again.

At this point everyone should understand we need to lynch faster. After today I want everyone coming back ready, because we need to try and lynch about once a week after this or we have a high chance of losing no matter WHO we lynch.

[Kinetic]

But we are still arguing the same points now... That day time wise is... meh... Honestly I'd like to know HQ's alignment so I can start thinking about what it means. I'm pretty sure he is scum, but I'd like to know if I was right or not. Its a rather important point which is going to be major in the coming week.

[Kinetic]

===========================[]
[]===========================

[Kinetic]

I'm waiting for HQ's alignment before I think about what happens next honestly.

[Kinetic]

What alignment was CKD???

[Kinetic]

Didn't notice the thing on the front page.

As for putting me, CKD, and HQ in the same group, that is completely ridiculous. I was the one who found them BOTH scummy to begin with and attacked HQ because I found him to be the scummiest of the two. I am surprised CKD died to the SK, because honestly I thought he WAS the SK... However at this point I find Mirth and Raffles to be the scummiest two players remaining.

I would like to do some re-reading of the last few pages to find more information, and I am QUITE suspect of Mirth for having such a quick response to the day. We're not at LYLO and I take a lot of credit for that, so hold your horses up.

[Kinetic]

I meant so quick with your vote, the fact that you are that sure of me is scummy, especially since...

It doesn't make sense for me to be mafia, I lead the attack on HQ, who happened to BE mafia. There are two more out there, care to tell me who you think my other partner is if I am mafia?

It doesn't make sense for me to have been SK and killed CKD. Honestly, I would have lead and advocated a LYNCH against him... I openly admit I thought he WAS mafia. The fact that the SK DID kill him actually helps me out, since now I don't have to lead said lynch, and can focus on looking at other people. I can be sure that this week would have been filled with me and CKD arguing until one of us died... Why the SK killed his is WAY beyond me...

I cannot imagine a scenario at this time where this helps him... unless he wants the town to lynch me... But if he does that then where is he left??? No, he would have been better off in my opinion killing someone other than me or CKD, having the two of us fight until one of us was lynched, or caused a standstill so he could kill relentlessly again. And then once ONE of us was lynched, the other would be since either of us coming up town would have doomed the other...

Doesn't make sense...

[Kinetic]

Whoa, whoa...Amazing the two people I find the most scummy are trying to bandwagon me. Gasp.

And I didn't follow MGM... I said in my posts before that I would have rather lynch CKD. Simple as that. When MGM tried to get that lynch going, I tried to help. When that lynch failed, I returned to HQ just like I said I would. I thought they were both scum, and I am truthfully surprised that CKD turned up as not being scum.

[Kinetic]

However at this point I find Mirth and Raffles to be the scummiest two players remaining./quote]

The fact that Kinetic was on the HQ wagon yesterday (when I mentioned the vote count) and the way he following MGM's ass bothered me the most yesterday. I'm happy to go with kinetic SK lynch.

Vote: Kinetic

Eek Gad, Precognitive deflection!

Anyway, I'm currently doing a quick re-read, let me finish that then I'll try to explain better why I wouldn't target CKD. Granted, it might have a little WIFOM (I know you're so fond of it Raffles, you have a whole lake of it ), but I'll try to explain anyway...

[Kinetic]

... Alright, I have a huge post on my re-read coming up that I'm building right now, but that can wait a little while (I'm on page 12 or so with that). I kinda wanna address this point that Mirth brought up.

The way I see it, if I'm going to figure out why I wouldn't target CKD as SK, the easiest way is to put my self in the SK's shoes and figure out who I WOULD target.

So I did that...and my conclusion is:

I would kill CKD with such a vengeance he would never know what hit him. ...

Which is incredibly odd, because in my mind, if I was the SK, but I was anyone but me (err, like if the SK was MGM and I was MGM), there is absolutely NO reason to target CKD, unless they truly thought he was mafia and wanted to kill him and get it over with...

Now let me try and explain myself here, because I realize I just admited that if I ws SK I would kill exactly who was killed last night, but I've got to talk through this because that sounds like madness to admit:

It is absolutely certain that CKD and myself would have been at odds this day, should he be alive. The person who was lynched of the two of us most certainly would have been a coin flip figuring what HQ came up as, mafia or town. If he came up mafia, CKD was likely to be lynched. If he came up town, I was likely to be lynched.

If I was the SK, I couldn't chance that outcome. I would have to kill CKD, so if HQ came up town and CKD came up mafia, I could be safe that way and claim that, and if HQ came up Mafia and CKD came up town, I could be safe that way.

Yet the reason I personally am so confused is that I cannot imagine the non-me SK killing CKD because it seems like to me that the SK was ensured a lynch between me and CKD...

Unless... Unless the SK calculated that either HQ or CKD was mafia, and knew the game would continue if he didn't hit a mafia. With those two as the top choices, it could even be the SK thought I might be mafia and effectively made a coin flip between killing me or CKD....

Honestly, I never fathomed the SK killing CKD, I thought either CKD was the SK or if he wasn't there was no way the SK would listen to him, but it makes perfect sense I was SK to kill CKD...

Gah >> I've been framed and in my own eyes I think I have the best reason to do it......

Bleh, all I can say is that just wait until I finish my re-read post (within the hour), I made some interesting insights, and I think I might have a clue who the scum groups are. If you absolutely MUST lynch me, I can almost understand, but I still want to win this game, and if I have to do it posthumously, that is ok too.

Man, I know its a mistake to post this... I can smell the WIFOM goodness already >>

[Kinetic]

I'm re-reading the thread and a few things have turned up. If the people I direct these questions at could answer them I would be appreciative.

First off, a question to the mod:

Mod: It never said if the mafia just know who the others are, or if they can talk out of thread. Does the town know either way if they can talk?

But I don't know if I agree with you targeting MGM as the SK or trying to push a vote. As I said before, as this game is nightless and the mafia can't kill of their own volition, our only voting constraint is to minimize SK kills, but we don't necessarily have to lynch once a week. Just make sure that lynching takes place on specific days. Id rather be sure of something than mislynch, especially in this type of set up. If we get enough for a reasonable lynch, good. If not, we shouldn't push it.

Do you still believe this? Effectively the SK has become the traditional mafia in this game, while the other mafia are just an anti-town mason group. Effectively we have hard deadlines on "days" as the SK kills once a week if we don't lynch.

Which do you think is worse: a mislynch or no lynch in a normal mafia game with only one killing faction?

In this game, do you think that a no lynch, allowing the SK to kill, is acceptable?

What I don't like: Kinetic also voicing his suspicion of MGM. I called MGM out on the hunch thing 2 pages back. Nobody else commented. Then Hazel voted. And CKD and Kinetic seem to take this as a cue that its okay to voice their suspicions. MGM hasn't done anything particularly earth shattering (or worthy of note even) in the last page. Granted, I still think he is the most suspicious person here, of people whove actually said something. But that can obviously change.

Didn't notice this the first time around, but I figure I should point this out to you:

Think of it like this guys, we're deadlined for

Aug 19, 2007 10:52 am

, If we come to an agreement before then that is fine, but we must come to an agreement by that time or we effectively no-lynch.

Vote:MGM

I'm of the opinion that the SK has posted already. MGM is just a hunch, but I think I'll place a vote on him since no one has.

Its 11 alive, 6 to lynch.

I was very interested in MGM at the beginning of the game. As more things panned out, around the time I made the second post about MGM (post 106), I was still suspicious of MGM until I noticed HQ and CKD acting suspicious to me. At that point I started looking deeper into HQ/CKD, and felt HQ was by far the scummier of the two, so I voted for him (post 127).

I don't think both HQ and CKD are scum, but I have a feeling that one of the two might be. I picked HQ because he felt more scummy to me.

Originally I thought that HQ and CKD weren't on a team, and only one of the two were scum. CKD's reaction after my attack on HQ though set off alarms in my head as if he was trying to protect his scum buddy and bully me off.

Mgm is acting super scummy to me. I realize there have been lots of exchanges between HazzelQ and Mgm, but coming out of them the one thing that stands out to me is that Mgm up and changed their mind. The flip-flopping on the lynch v. no lynch is the most scummy for me. From the SK kill Mgm all you've been saying is how we need to get someone up there cause we're on a deadline. I just don't understand the sudden change in heart. I know Mirth mentioned her reasons for a no-lynch, were they that convincing to you?
But there again, I don't know what to think about the voting for someone, then killing them as the SK. I think that is so scummy that you wouldn't do it.

Another thing in my re-read that I find very odd... Heather barely has any posts and then comes and posts this... add to that a late jump on the HQ bus, could be a scum buddy trying to defend then throwing under the bus...

Oh! I remembered my point. If MGM is scum, wouldn't it be better for the SK to have killed MGM instead for the very reason of being rather suspicious, thus throwing the town in a state of a bit more confusion and possibly buying himself a better oppurtunity at winning (ie have more kills with which to make sure that he does not end up alive with enugh mafia members to majority vote a lynch that could kill him). Then again, I suppose it doesn't particularly matter to the SK whom he kills, as long as it confuses the town, because either way his only objective would be to stay hidden. (Also long as he doesnt leave himself with just 3 or 2 mafia members alive at the end of the game, he would win.)

Very odd! In my opinion the CKD kill just now is throwing me into a loop of confusion...

169. Kinetic cites faulty notes. Thought MGM voted M4yhem after D3sisted, says "but it was really Heatherlou" says it was a mistake

(This is false. MGM voted CKD.)

No, I meant heatherlou voted for M4yhem, not that MGM voted heatherlou.

Kinetic - I definately do not like a few of his comments, especially about Hazzel splitting his posts. (By the way, Kinetic, you still haven't answered about that. Please do so.) I don't like his all out arguement with CKD (this could be WIFOM on my part, I'm aware of it.) I think he is possibly Mafia, but probably not the SK, unless he's breadcrumbing stuff.

This was your opinion of me after your whole re-read. Only 5 days have passed since this. I realize I have made scummy comments, and even scummy attacks (personally, I agree my play hasn't been stellar at all), but even so you don't think I'm lonescum, but teamscum. Now your opinion has flip-flopped, and you think I'm lonescum and not teamscum. Is there any specific reason, other than since HQ came up teamscum and you don't think I'm on a team with him and still trying to find me scummy?

vote: HazzelQ

For mixing up games and generally acting really defensive at the beginning of the questioning. I don't think pointing out the mixing up makes it any less of a scummy move. It wouldn't have gotten by anyway, even if you hadn't pointed it out, especally twice.
Damn right I'm lurking, this game has been nothing but back and forth arguments and I think we just need to lynch cause we're all grasping at straws.
As for other scum, I have no concrete ideas

Awesome attack on a lurker while lurking... priceless. The turn around by Heather reeks of scum bussing.

-----------------------

My current impressions on who are the scum groups:

Mafia:
Raffles/Heatherlou

SK
Most likely: Stewie

Individual Players:

Mirth: Meh, for the most part I've been very OMGUSy with her the whol game, and most of that is my fault. You've been a little bit snarky, but my responses to such have been overly dramatic and generally wrong. I should have read your pbp when you first posted, but I saw it and pretty much skipped it the first time. I took some time this time and it seems like you had similar points/suspicions as I did, but I never really saw them in your everyday posts.

Raffles: However, you, I found extremely scummy in my re-read. I got a slimy feeling from you the first time, and your alternately lurking and bandwagoning reeked of scummyness to me.

Stewie: In my opinion, almost definitely not teamscum, but I would take bets at even odds that he could be the SK. He is highest on my list for that honor.

heatherlou: As I've pointed out above, she has presented a lurker feel, mashed with alternately defending HQ, then throwing him under the bus when his lynch seemed inevitable.

MGM: I know I've avoided him the most this game, but I'll say this now; I really don't find him

that

scummy anymore... Odd how that works... I still think he is a possible, but not as high as when I first was looking at him early game. The main reason I was thrown off with the early SKs was because I was so suspicious of MGM and then when the SKs started going like I thought they might if he was SK, along with HQ and CKD attacking him... something sent up alarms in my head. Since then I've had time to reread, and I really don't know... If I had to guess, I would guess townie. If he was scum though, I don't think he's teamscum, at best I think he could be the SK.

Xyzzy: I hate that we have this much of a wildcard right now. He's high on my mafia list, but not high on my SK list. This may be WIFOMy, but to me the SK seems to be the same person, and doesn't look like he's replaced... Still could be scum though.

That's everyone.

I've said what I wanted to say. Any questions?

[Kinetic]

Gah >> I've been framed and in my own eyes I think I have the best reason to do it......

See what I don't like about this is how sure you are that you've been framed (yes, this is all going to be WIFOM, just like your entire post was).

I'm not

sure

I've been framed >> That was more of a "Omg... This IS what I would have done..." moment. Really creeped me out to tell you the truth.

[Kinetic]

Stop voting what I'm going to vote before I do it! >>

[Kinetic]

Why I disagree with the comment on Mirth: Mirth wrote that Kinetic is most likely scum if HazQ turns up town. Does that mean opposite is true when HQ turns up scum? I think not. Some craplogic there.

Actually, I addressed this slightly. Mirth just finds me generally scummy. Originally she didn't think I could be SK because the reason she originally found me scummy was because of my interactions with HQ and CKD... But again, those reasons turned out wrong:

3. I still stand by my opinion that the SK's main motive is to hide and his kills would probably enable that.

4. My opinion on you changed based on Hazzel coming up scum. Because my original thought was it was either you and CKD or CKD and Hazzel. I was wrong on both counts and I don't think you and Hazzel are partners.

This doesn't really make sense to me though. On the one hand you say you think the SK is trying to hide in plain sight (more fitting for players such as Stewie, or even Raffles), but then on the other you think I can't be teamscum anymore, but are very likely (enough to vote for me) the SK.

I submit to you: Am I trying to hide anything at all? I'm putting myself out there as much as possible, explaining what I can, the best I can. I personally helped lead the HQ lynch, and yes I'm going to keep noting that feather, because honestly if I would have just helped the town stagnate at this point, we might still be in the same place we were two weeks ago.

Personally I think that she needs to do at least a passing reread now. We have more information, much more, and we can start putting some things into context.

Also, my main "Turn around" point with you Mirth is that I'm looking at things from a different angle. This is day 2 now, which is a totally different game. In my opinion the three people that seem to be trying the most are You, MGM, and myself. This doesn't clear them completely, but it does go a long way in my book. All three provided a lot of information for Day 2, while the people I have on my scum list (heather, raff, stewie, and to a lesser extent xyz) are all players who glided and coasted through the day.

Truth be told, I do find Raffles very scummy, but right now, heatherlou is at the top of my list. Granted, its not my SK list... but it is also very possible she could be the SK. I find it much less likely that Raff can be the SK, I'm almost sure he's just normal team scum, but I'd like to see what heather has to say most. Personally, I think she's only teamscum as well, but she is scummier in my book, and the possibility of being SK exists as well.

Vote: Heatherlou

[Kinetic]

No lynch: E>1/2 per week
Scum lynch end-week: E>1/2 per week
Scum lynch mid-week: E> 1 per week
Townie lynch end-week: E> 3/2 per week
Townie lynch mid-week: E> 2 per week

I'm not looking at it in the way you are looking at it at all. This is what I see:

When we lynch, almost no matter who we lynch, we gain information. Lots of it. Lynching scum is better, much better, but I was advocating the HQ lynch since week 1. Since then, instead of lynching, we've stagnated. For each no lynch, especially now, we give the SK time to eliminate one more person.

We're almost at LyLo now. Not quite, mainly because of the way the set up is, but we're teetering on the edge.

Raffles: Let me ask you this- Which is worse right now? A townie lynch, or no lynch? 7 alive. 2 mafia, 1 SK, 4 townies.

[Kinetic]

I am not the most serious lurker here. I turned my vote on HQ because I thought he was scum, and he was. I don't think that's putting him under a bus as a scum buddy. What that is to me is I had a little doubt towards HQ so I decided to withhold my vote. Mgm called me out on it, and I wanted a lynch, so I voted him.

So, let me get this straight:

First, you just off-hand say lurking isn't scummy, because there are people lurking more than you.

So just because you say you didn't bus him, you didn't? I don't believe it.

A little doubt? Please, you were completely on HQ's side, and then when things began to turn you did a little dance, and all of a sudden voted for him. Exactly like you say though, MGM called you on it, and you got scared, so you voted.

Kinetic, you were ready to vote HQ to lynch him, then at the last minute you try and turn the lynch around to CKD. When you find you can't get a good bandwagon started, you fly back to HQ, then just kill CKD as the SK. That is scummy in my book.

Ha, so now you try and turn my suspicions back on me? Please. The entire day I found both CKD and HQ scummy. I explained so completely. If I was teamscum with HQ, wouldn't it have made more sense for me to have initially voted CKD? I kept on HQ, and then when things started rolling on HQ, the way CKD reacted really caused alarms to go off in my head. I felt he was even scummier than HQ at that point. So I wanted to see if we could pressure him. I admit, I was wrong about him, but look at the posts. CKD WAS acting scummy as hell, and I wasn't the only one who thought so.

And I'm surprised at how everyone all of a sudden thinks I'm the SK, yesterday everyone thought I was scummy because they thought I was teamscum with CKD... now that that has been proven false everyone is scrambling to find some way I could still be scummy.

I think anyone jumping on me thinking I'm the SK is scummy. Heather, I'm even more convinced now that you are scum. I'm still not sure, mafia or SK, but I'm leaning toward mafia now.

[Kinetic]

Raffles:

I think what MGM is saying is this-

Lynching when there are 6 people left, and lynching when there are 7 are fundamentally the same. Execpt, if we mislynch with 6 people left, we are even WORSE off than if we mislynch with 7.

Look at this like a normal game: We're effectively at LYLO right now. Hoping that the SK kills a mafia with no lynch is very useless. We need to do the scum hunting ourselves. Its true, if we lynch a townie and the SK also kills a townie, we're in an ugly situation, but honestly, the likeliness of that is low enough where it shouldn't paralyze you from voting (which it hasn't -.-)

I'm sorry, your words and your actions don't line up. You're attacking me for reasons that don't make sense any longer, and still convinced I'm scum... I think you're using me as a target of opportunity, which is extremely scummy.

[Kinetic]

Bleh...

Just lost a long post >><<

Basically it boils down to this:

First: Heather, who was lurking all day day one, all of a sudden, after I presented a rather good case against her, is back with a vengeance. Her defense? OMGUS on a major scale...

Anyone who doesn't find that really suspicious and really suspect is blind.

Second: Everything that people have said they find scummy about me they have found scummy because they think I was mafia. The interactions day 1 between CKD/HQ, the erratic vote patterns (which I contend were not, but w/e). But when the alignments of HQ/CKD came up, a lot of people backed off that they though I was mafia.

But instead, they took these suspicions, and they dropped them on "Well he's scummy, so if he isn't mafia then he must be.... SK?".

That doesn't make ANY sense to me. SKscum and MAfiascum play extremely differently in my book. I'm not saying I can't be SK scum because I'm not lurking, or trying to say that a SK has to play a certain way.

What I am saying is there is no justification for saying, "Well I thought there was a high likelihood of him being mafia and a low likelihood of him being the SK, but when recent events showed that was highly unlikely, to justify my suspicions on him, he must be the SK."

I implore everyone, re-read Day 1. The town will LOSE if we do not use ALL the information we have available to us. The people who are just blindly voting today without doing their research are scummy as hell! Mainly because it seems to me they have their minds made up and are now, post-voting, trying to justify their suspicions.

[Kinetic]

Mirth, but that is what I am wondering still... If you originally found the arguments suspicious because you thought it was ingenuous, how can you so quickly after finding the argument genuine still find it suspicious? It seems to me this is a case of false justification. You are trying to justify your suspicions, but those suspicions don't make sense for the reason you originally made them, so you are trying to justify them instead of looking at the much more likely case: They are just not correct at this time...

I'm not trying to team up on you with MGM, and I realize this might look like that, but despite all this I still feel like you're not part of the scum group right now. And because of that I want you to help us find the real scum groups.

I mean, for most of the time you found your opinions and mine to be in line, that is why I'm so confused why during your reread this time you didn't feel that way again.

[Kinetic]

It has been my opinion the entire game that we should not have wasted our time with all these no lynches. We gained no valuable information and the SK was just slowly biding his time, killing off inactive players and giving us NO information what so ever about his kills.

So when the town finally woke up I was there to push. I tagged HQ and CKD as my most suspicious people. Well guess what, HQ WAS scum and CKD WAS very suspicious. The SK killing him is also significant. The SK is no longer targeting inactive players and actually gave us a kill we can read into.

And the reason I'm so miffed is because in every game I have read with a SK in it, the SK was never lynched because people though he was the SK. Its easy for the SK to hide in a crowd because they can easily say "I'm not the most suspicious person, I'm only the second most, lynch the person who is most suspicious first". I have found the SK is never who you think it is, and since you have virtually cleared me of being mafia that means you only have a 1/7 chance of being right here. I personally much prefer the 3/7 chance of lynching someone who has a good chance of being the SK or Mafia, and that is what I think heather could be.

The main problem with your argument that I see is if you are wrong and I'm not the SK, and you're right and I'm not mafia, then we are hosed. You kill a townie and then you're hoping the SK hits a mafia.

I will say it again. Serial Killer, if I am inevitably lynched, you can gather from what is said here that I have a VERY low chance of being mafia. Target Heatherlou. I'm pretty sure she is mafia. I caught HQ, and I'm pretty sure I caught Heather. The fact that she has gone back to lurking AGAIN after failing to defend herself the first time is throwing even MORE credence to my theory. This is in your best interest to kill mafia, even if it also pushes forward a possible town win.

Mirth: By your attacks I feel like you are most likely not the SK. If you were the SK then there is no way you would push your attack on me as such. You would realize that I am most likely not mafia and not waste your time with this attack. As the SK you need to lynch mafia.

Now as a townie, I don't care if I get the mafia or the SK, but I want to lynch someone who I think has the best chance of being one or both. Heather is the play today, and I will argue that point until I'm blue. Lynch me, go ahead, but after I'm dead, look back at my arguments. You should be able to find the last remaining mafia and the SK by who the SK kills tonight.

[Kinetic]

We're sort of under a deadline, I realize V/LA is useful an all, but you would think a quick notice in this type of game would have been appropriate.

[Kinetic]

I know MGM... >> I'm trying, but the only people here are you me and Mirth. Raffles and heather's disappearance greatly disturbs me. I think the three of us need to decide between those two, pick one, triple vote them, and hope someone comes back in time to hammer hem.

[Kinetic]

I'd be more willing to go after xyzzy after heather. I thought I laid a decent case, but I'll be honest, I was only about 50% sure. After her defense, I'm like 85% sure now, so I would prefer her lynch more than anyone.

If I had to choose a second person, I would say Raffles is the second highest person on my list.

People who I don't think are the SK:

Mirth

People who I don't think are mafia:

MGM
Stewie

[Kinetic]

Yea, I would prob add Raffles to the not likely to be SK list, but he's on my most likely to be mafia list

[Kinetic]

I totally missed Raffles post.... lol

[Kinetic]

I want to put some pressure on Xyzzy too, but I'm just unsure enough about mirth and raffles being a possible scum pair that I don't want to vote right this second. Last thing we need is them two quick voting before we at least hear from xyz. I know that isn't likely at this case, since we're not technically in LYLO, but it still bothers me a bit.

[Kinetic]

Pooky: Are you allowed to tell us if the player read the prod (i.e. it is in your Outbox and not your Sent Mail Box.) or responded to the prod by PM. If you are allowed to tell us, did Xyzzy do either or both of these things?

[Kinetic]

I'm even more certain of heather right now. Her blatant OMGUS is just icing on the scum cake.

[Kinetic]

CKD, simple as this, if HQ isn't SK and is mafia, I'll be completely fine with lynching him.

This to me sounds like scum that know that their partner is scum, and therefore they try to line up the next lynch. Similar post in 293. I'm not sure about this, because he was voting for HQ for a considerable amount of time, but I'm sure enough to get a lynch before the deadline approaches.

I'm also willing to go after xyzzy, but first I'd like to know why mgm thinks that xyzzy is lurking on purpose.

That is taken a bit out of context Stewie. When that was happening CKD was attacking me for not trying hard enough to find the SK. As I saw it, HQ had a slight chance of being the SK, but I was more than comfortable with him being mafia, as I said in that post. CKD's steadfast refusal to try and hunt mafia as well as the SK actually what convinced me that CKd and HQ were scum buddies. Granted, I was wrong, but it wasn't a horrible mistake. It would have been a horrible mistake if I did get CKD lynched instead of HQ, but in the end everything worked out.

It seems to me that if any play is going to be made this week its going to be xyz or myself... I'm a still a little skittish about xyz truthfully... I would prefer a little more information on him, but I understand the Lynch the Lurker mentality. I just hope its not a red herring. I still would prefer heather over anything else, but with time growing short, I might not have that option...

unvote;vote: xyzzy

[Kinetic]

Kinetic, I am very very tempted to put you back at L-1 right now. First you say that you think Raffles and I are partners.

I want to put some pressure on Xyzzy too, but I'm just unsure enough about mirth and raffles being a possible scum pair that I don't want to vote right this second.

Simple Explanation: You are still on my possible mafia list. Raffles is high on that list, Heather is highest. I think Heather is who I am most confident with overall, but I also think Raffles is a possibility.

That being said, Xyz is not high on either of my lists, mostly because of his lurking. More information on this below. You're higher than him on my mafia list, but he's (much) higher than you on my possible SK list.

Then Heather posts and you give up this theory and go back after her. (If you're so sure of Heather being scum, then Raffles and I can't possibly be partners. By your own reasoning it would be one or the other.)

I still maintain that I am most reasonably sure that Heather is scum, I've maintained that even when I suggested that it is possible that it isn't true. I haven't ruled out the possibility of you two. Granted, you are low on my mafia list too, but I'm not going to just quick vote in the above situation until I'm sure enough to back up my thoughts.

I wouldn't vote for you at this point unless Raffles or Xyz came up scum. In my opinion the only people I could see as your possible scum partners are xyz and Raffles if you are mafia.

However, since I really think heather is scum, her coming up as such would virtually clear you in my mind. Since she is my top suspect, it naturally makes you look less likely to be scum.

However I am also taking to heart the lesson I learned from CKD. No matter how sure I am someone is scum, or how sure I am that someone is town, there are no confirmations. I will look at every possibility and weigh it before I make any decision. My decision will be based on what I think is the most likely case, but just because it is the most likely case, doesn't always means its the right case.

Then Stewie says he's willing to go after Xyzzy and you unvote and vote him, even though just a post before you say you're certain of Heather being scum.

I was waiting for Stewie or Xyzzy to come back and say something. We have about 48 hours to the deadline at this point, and I KNOW how important this deadline is. When Stewie came back three things happened:

1) The fact that it seems no one but me is sure enough about heather to vote her but me, and while I would still immediately vote for her now if we could get her to lynch in time, I don't think that is going to happen.

2) Xyzzy became a possible lynch target by the time we reached deadline. It is true, Stewie's willingness to vote xyz is basically what changed my vote.

3) I'm not sure enough about xyz to vote him just on my convictions, however I know I am not scum and since he looks like the only other option at deadline, I will choose that. Would you prefer I self-vote in that situation?

[Kinetic]

Heather is top on my list, but even at the highest level of suspicion I'm only 85% sure. In the remaining 15% there is the possibility of Raffles/Mirth. Its low, but at that point I wasn't going to blind vote.

And no, I never offered to self-hammer, I was being sarcastic there. I'm not going to vote myself, I was just saying no matter what alignment I am I'm not going to vote myself in a situation where there are two options and killing myself is one of them -.-;

[Kinetic]

As I've mentioned before, my internet sarcasm detector doesn't work late at night.

Just out of curiousity, though, what makes you suspect that Raffles and I might be partners. (By this I mean, what do you see connecting us, more than what makes you suspicious.)

The two of you had eerily similar movements day 1, but seemed like you were both trying to not be obvious about it.

The double headed and coordinated attack on my starting day 2 also sticks out.

You two generally have the same opinions on many targets, even sometimes when the possibilities are murky.

Granted, not an air-tight case, but just a couple things I noticed that piqued my interest. Far from high enough in my mind to vote either of you at this point based on my suspicions, but high enough that I'm not just going to blindly overlook it.

[Kinetic]

Yes the same could be said about me and MGM. In fact, I was more suspicious of people who didn't at least notice said connection on Day 1. I tried very hard to push that was without seeming to do so.

It was much of a less clumsy approach at the technique than I've done in earlier games, but basically it goes like this: Do something obviously scummy, but which doesn't always fit with scum logic. The people who do not mention it are trying to lay low. The people who mention it and preach about it too much are jumping at mole hills.

Its almost the opposite of OMGUS. In some ways it was a plan for me to 'buddy' up MGM. And since we're all going out of our ways noticing things, I might as well tell you the reason I chose MGM. He was my highest suspect for SK, but I wasn't sure enough yet. With the way HQ and CKD were going after him though, it just reeked to me of the Mafia trying to lead the town on a SK hunt, and that is why when CKD out and out admitted as such I found him immensely scummy. Because the very reasoning he admitted to was the principal reason I found him scummy.

Now half of the reason I buddied up like that to MGM was because I didn't want to be killed by the SK. I felt (and still feel now) that without at least some suspicion on you that you become a target for the scum groups. So its hard to balance trying to look a little bit scummy, but not too scummy... You know what I mean?

This is the lists I'm working with in my notes right now, and how I determine my votes. The person highest on the fourth list is who I would vote given the chance, while going down the list is people I'm not as sure about:

The precentages noted here are just my own arbitrary numbers. They don't have a really big backing except from what I feel. I add whenever I think something they say looks scummy and subtract if I feel like they do something pro-town (however certain pro-town things actually raise the SK level).

Day 2 Mafia SK Total
Raffles 60 17 45.66666667
Mirth 35 10 26.66666667
Heather 85 40 70
MGM 4 55 21
Stewie 1 60 20.66666667
Xyzzy 30 50 36.66666667

Possible Mafia List
Heather 85
Raffles 60
Mirth 35
Xyzzy 30
MGM 4
Stewie 1

Possible SK List
Stewie 60
MGM 55
Xyzzy 50
Heather 40
Raffles 17
Mirth 10

ScumList
Heather 85 40 70
Raffles 60 17 45.66666667
Xyzzy 30 50 36.66666667
Mirth 35 10 26.66666667
MGM 4 55 21
Stewie 1 60 20.66666667


The reason I've weighted mafia more is not because I think they're more dangerous (although there are many scenarios where they are), but simply because there are two left, and thus even by random chance there is a higher possibility of nailing one of them than the SK.

So that's basically what I've been using to find scum. Here is my list at the end of Day 1:
Day 1 Mafia SK Total
CKD 65 60 63.75
HQ 80 25 66.25
Mirth 65 30 56.25
Raffles 50 45 48.75
MGM 30 75 41.25
Stewie 45 80 53.75
Xyzzy 50 50 50
Heather 25 55 32.5

Possible Mafia List
HQ 80
CKD 65
Mirth 65
Raffles 50
Xyzzy 50
Stewie 45
MGM 30
Heather 25

Possible SK List
Stewie 80
MGM 75
CKD 65
Heather 55
Xyzzy 50
Raffles 45
Mirth 30
HQ 25

Scum List
HQ 80 25 66.25
CKD 65 65 65
Mirth 65 30 56.25
Stewie 45 80 53.75
Xyzzy 50 50 50
Raffles 50 45 48.75
MGM 30 75 41.25
Heather 25 55 32.5

I did this in excel,and the tables are messed up a little, but I just copied and pasted from the excel document I've been using all game.

[Kinetic]

I was saving it for day three actually... I didn't think that this bandwagon would have continued this far into the day, especially after what heather pulled. Additionally due to the deadlines of this game, we need to lynch now, so even though I don't think this bandwagon would have continued in a non deadlined game, I don't have the option to try and wait it out.

Felt like this was the only thing I was holding back, so if I am decided as the lynch this week, at the very least I know I said everything I needed to say. If a town win is in the picture I don't want everything I know to be lost, even if I'm lynched.

[Kinetic]

The percentages noted here are just my own arbitrary numbers. They don't have a really big backing except from what I feel. I add whenever I think something they say looks scummy and subtract if I feel like they do something pro-town (however certain pro-town things actually raise the SK level).

Also, at this time my inkling for MGM as the possible SK is just that, its only an inkling. I think Stewie at this point is more likely to be the SK. I posted these so you would see this is how I personally rate the game.

Also, my current list has MGM very low on my total rating scale. I'm still keeping my eye open, but in my opinion there are bigger fish to fry.

[Kinetic]

Because I'm not all that sure about my SK guesses right now. I've gone from SK being MGM, then DeepSouth, then CKD, now Stewie. I've been wrong at least three times on SK, and I don't feel confident enough to push for a SK lynch at this time.If I HAD to choose someone to be SK, it would be Stewie right now.

I haven't really thought it could be Stewie before today, and I've kind of been on the defensive the entire day thanks to you and Mirth so I haven't really had time to present a case. But scroll back to the beginning of the day: Link: Thought CKD was SK at the end of Day 1, and after my re-read, if you note I put Stewie at the top of my likely to be SK list.

I would have been pushing Stewie (and I'm pretty sure I mentioned him quite a few times, but he was V/LA) but for the most part I've been defending my play. And even when there were concessions by you and Mirth that my play could be completely town, you both still didn't let up.

So there is everything I know up until this point. What happens today (Friday) and tomorrow (Saturday) will define this game. I hope you'll look over my play and see I've been trying to find both scum all game.

[Kinetic]

Because I'm not all that sure about my SK guesses right now. I've gone from SK being MGM, then DeepSouth, then CKD, now Stewie. I've been wrong at least three times on SK,

How do you know this? By saying you're been wrong at least three times you completely discount the possibility that MGM is the SK. Why?

You misunderstand. There is only one serial killer. I didn't say

which

three were mistakes, but of the four, at least three

have

to be mistakes. I haven't discounted the possibility MGM could be the SK, but if he is than Stewie is the mistake. If Stewie is the SK, then MGM is the mistake.

[Kinetic]

ummm xyzzy is at -1 I think with Mirth's vote.

[Kinetic]

Mirth: Stewie placed the first vote on HQ, I placed the second vote on HQ, if I remember correctly. That's part of the reason he's so low on my possible mafia list.

[Kinetic]

I was just going to post that I half-expected Xyzzy-scum to come back out of the blue with deadline approaching. If anything, I was unsure about him before, but his reappearance at such an opportune time (especially since he didn't even show up at deadline last time) has me leaning toward scum...

[Kinetic]

Just timeline reasons: Raffles you voted to put HQ at -2, i placed him at -1, then MGM hammered. (Then I did a little hammer graphic that I've been waiting to do since I joined the site. )

As for the SK being alive... I think that might be a given at this point. I keep thinking why would Pooky keep the twilight going this long... seems to me that he might be waiting for the SK to send his kill. If I'm wrong, yay for me, but I'm not sure at this point.

If I die, my last will stands: I think heather is one of the mafia, and Stewie is still my top suspect for SK.

[Kinetic]

Yea, but Raffles, by the end of Day 1, Mirth even said she'd vote for HQ... I don't think anyone alive wouldn't have at the end of the day...

[Kinetic]

And you still don't understand... the SK doesn't CARE about those 3-4 days. Being on that list of yours or not, the SK could care less. They mean nothing. If we had hammered on Wednesday or if we hammered on Saturday, the SK STILL got a kill immediately after and we then had a week before the next one... The SK wins when we do not lynch in time and he gets a free kill with no reciprocation.

[Kinetic]

That is pure WIFOM and you KNOW it. If the SK hammered early, people would look at him suspiciously (like Stewie now), no way the SK is going to do that early. Now what is the best way to try and throw suspicion off you as scum? Do EXACTLY what you would expect scum to do, i.e. hammer right now.

After two weeks of NO lynching, despite heated argument it wouldn't surprise me if the SK thought that even the lynch on HQ would falter and die out. It didn't and because of that he ALSO made his first substantial kill, and you guys nearly fell RIGHT into his trap when he killed CKD to try and frame me. Heck, you and Mirth tried to quick-lynch me.

The SK 'might' be on your little list Raffles, but honestly, you know the whole WIFOM case yourself, and there is no way you could say lynching early is GOOD for the SK. Lynching at all is bad for the SK. We were nearly in LYLO because of the SK and if HQ wasn't mafia we could have lost to the mafia real quickly.

[Kinetic]

The only reason it would raise eyebrows would probably be because I raised those issues. Back then, pretty much all active posters apart from CKD and I were thirsty for blood.

I think its a little unfair to call me bloodthirsty. I was convinced that we NEEDED to lynch that day or else we were going to lose. I was also fairly convinced that HQ was scum.

I went with what I thought was right and pushed it hard. I think a lack of motivation to do so was a lot odder than anything Raffles.

[Kinetic]

Wow. That definitely is awesome. But Raffles, I think that the SK was waiting the same as us for an alignment here. Its late in the game, random killings aren't going to win him the game. That being said, he could theoretically kill anyone now and not have to worry about ending the game prematurely.

[Kinetic]

Ok, so right this second we got six alive, one mafia, one SK, 4 townies. After the SK kill we'll know even more. I suggest discussion until then, we cannot afford to get complacent now. We're still virtually in LYLO depending on who the SK kills. No one quick votes now. Everything could depend on what happens in the next couple days and who the SK ends up killing.

BTW, SK, I still think heather is a good choice for mafia.

[Kinetic]

The Mafia has been eliminated. 4 townies, 1 SK.

Ok then... We got two shots at this, let's make them count.

[Kinetic]

Now I'm all up and confused. I felt sure enough to lynch heather because I thought she was mafia, but I really wasn't all too sure she was the SK...

If I had to choose anyone who seemed like the SK to me, it would be Stewie.

[Kinetic]

I was just going to say "MGM unvote now. What did I say about quick votes..." But then I realized that you unvoting wouldn't matter. With only one scum left he has to convince two townies, not just one, to misvote. That being said, we have a little more leeway.

[Kinetic]

Mirth: But I've been vocal with who my suspects were. And I HAVE tagged two scum, Raffles and HQ. I think that is pretty good.

But I'll tell you the truth, the SK killing a mafia THIS time may not have been the best play for him. I know if I was the SK, I would have killed either you or MGM today who I thought were townie or SK(but couldn't be SK if I was), instead of heather or Raffles, who I thought could be mafia.

Why? Because 3 townie, 1 mafia, 1 SK is better for the SK than 4 townie 1 SK. With less townies and more mafia, there is still the possibility of the SK leading a non mislynch and going into the endgame with 2 townies.

Now, however, the SK has to dodge TWO lynches. His odds are dramatically lower to survive.

[Kinetic]

I thought heather was mafia, all my reads on her was based off that. I really don't have a case for her as SK.

That being said, don't kid yourself. If I was SK You, MGM, or maybe Stewie would have been my target. Easily. Just because you were vocal about me being the SK, it would be easy to WIFOM out of that. "O, well of course Mirth died from the SK, he wants to frame me. He killed CKD who was my top suspect, now he kills Mirth to cement me as SK." I think I would have an easier time surviving if you weren't around.

I think Stewie or MGM is the SK, if I was the SK, I'd attack someone I was pretty sure was a townie. I made no secret of the fact that I thought Raffles could be the last mafia, if anything, I would not have taken the risk of SK killing either heather or raffles. Too much worry about one of them being mafia.

That being said, I still think you're townie. I think it is

possible

that heather could be SK, but I really don't think the likeliness is high

I would be willing to vote Stewie right now, personally, more than anyone else, but I'm not willing to vote JUST yet.

[Kinetic]

The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that if I was the SK, I would have killed Mirth.

I mean, it really works out to my advantage if I did.

1) I can WIFOM the SK away from me.
2) I get rid of one of my major enemies, without much reprisal
3) I have to stay away from my possible mafia, Raffles and Heather. Need to distract the town with them a little longer.
4) Need to stay away from my SK suspects a little longer, so Stewie and MGM are sticking around.

Yea, sorry Mirth, but if Iw as the SK, you would be dead. Heck, I wouldn't have even KILLED after the lynch right away. I would wait until someone put someone at -1, then I would triple kill. (Kill someone, knock Lynch down to 3, have someone be lynched, then kill again after word.)

No, I'm really sure that the SK screwed up royally the last kill. I don't see MGM doing that personally, but he's still higher on my list.

I would still say Stewie seems like the highest candidate in my book.

[Kinetic]

True. That thought had occurred to me. That being said, since the SK could kill at any time, I could always just have killed someone mid-day to really mess with people's heads.

[Kinetic]

Why would Kinetic have killed you? It's far more fruitful to kill an active player and if he thought you were mafia, strategically, it was better to keep you alive to help get rid of one more townie to strengthen his odds.

The SK doesn't increase any odds if they keep mafia alive as opposed to town. Not that I can see any way. Or are you saying because I am less active that it would be better for the SK to keep me alive?

I directly disagree with this statement, as explained elsewhere. If the SK kills off the mafia too early, the town has full incentive to go after the SK. In this case we have two chances to nab the SK without reprocussion. If the SK had hit a townie then he/she could still have enough distraction going around that he/she could much easier avoid lynch on this day. And EVEN if the town mislynches today, the SK can hit ANOTHER townie, have the end game come down to townie/mafia/sk and have a REALLY good shot at winning, probably his best chance really.

The fact the SK waited until after the lynch finished and decided his/her kill afterword is significant. Either he/she was scum hunting (a poor decision imo) or they hit raffles thinking he was a townie.

So by those criteria, Heather, who do you think is most likely the SK.

Well, by those criteria, it would be either you, Mgm or kinetic. As I said in my last post, I have no huge suspicions on any particular person.

And I find this interesting. This is directly conflicting with what you said earlier. First you're sure I'm not the SK, now I'm in your top 3?

That's more than enough for a

Fos:Heather

At this moment I'm wondering why Kinetic believes I am the sk. He's said this several times, with no explanation. At this point I don't think he's the sk, but it's kind of frustrating to be accused of something with no grounds.

Really? Sounds like your own case against Heather... But I'll explain why I feel that you are the SK.

1) You seem VERY knowledgeable about the game. So much so that you were on the two lynches for the game and have very good reasons for being on them.

-You were the first person to vote Heather. At first it seemed like a throwaway post, but then you explained exactly why you voted her.

2) Yet, you have very very few posts in the game. You are exibiting all the classic signs of "Lurking in Plain Sight".

You know a lot about everyone in the game, yet no one really knows a lot about you. These are the aspects I was looking for when trying to find the sK. You fit PERFECTLY into my SK profile.

This post made by you, which pretty much damned HQ feels very much like a SK post to me. It neatly encompaces both of my ideas.

Stewie: yes, I understand what you were saying. I did every single post because it helps me understand stuff. I would, however, like to hear your opinion of everybody still alive, if you don't mind.

1. I don't have an opinion on everyone.
2. I do mind. Giving an opinion on everyone in the game gives the SK more information. He can kill someone people don't find suspicious, since that player would be hard to lynch; they can not-kill someone people do find suspicious, since that someone would be easy to lynch; and they s/he could kill me, if I'm on to them. I generally don't think it's a good idea to offer your opinion on

everyone

.

Since you asked, and HazzelQ doesn't understand, I'll reiterate what I said last page (ie: my case against HazzelQ).

1. HazzelQ makes a comment which only scum would say, namely she says that we can afford to lose a townie. Someone who is pro-town would also be a townie, and would therefore not say that we can afford to lose a townie, since the same argument could be used against them.
2. She explains this by saying that she confused this game with another game. Fair enough, except...
3. She does it again, this time saying she should RC. Once again, she apologises right after, claiming that she confused this game with another. I don't believe a townie would be careless enough to confuse the games in such a manner twice, and therefore I believe she is scum. Not having the townie PM, she forgets that there are no power roles.
4. Saying that she confused the games before anyone else picked up on it only means that she noticed the mistake before anyone else did, so it's a null tell.

You have a very good case on HQ, yet you refuse to talk about what you feel on other players. I do not think your reasons match though. You say you don't want to give the SK information, but to me it seems like you don't want anything to be linked to you about any other players, at all. Even your play on "Day 2" is extremely suspicious, and I almost thought that last minute hammer was scum bussing, and for a moment I thought you MIGHT be mafia. But when everything happened like it did, I am virtually sure you're the SK.

You're playing a VERY careful game. If I was the SK I would have taken someone like you out with my first or second kill. Yet you're still around, still half-lurking, still playing it safe. It bothers me a lot, and that is why you're on the top of my "Possible SK List".

[Kinetic]

I ws hoping someone might comment...

Its Wednesday, I think its about time for the SK to die.

Vote:Stewie

[Kinetic]

Firstly, I never made a case against heather. So I will assume that you meant the case against HQ.

Ah, sorry about that. HeatherLou, HazzleQ, they rhyme, mixed them up. I did indeed mean your case against HQ.

Firstly, your case against me was nothing like my case against heather in the way that you tried to correlate them. I explained my reasoning in the very same post that I voted for HQ. If anyone wondered why, they could go back and read it. It's my 7th post, for reference. You, on the other hand, never did such a thing. You simply said, repeatedly, something to the effect of "I think it's very likely that Stewie is the SK" without ever explaining why until I asked.

The main reason I didn't post all my suspicions for why I thought you might be the SK right away was because I have continually shifted my suspicion on who I thought was SK throughout the game. For the most part I felt it would be easier to hunt the mafia and decided to attempt to do so. I also didn't want to give the mafia players an easy distraction to say "Well if you think Stewie is SK why don't you try and lynch him? Isn't he more important?" And the truth is, to the mafia, the SK was more important.

I'm pretty sure I gave some reasons, albeit brief and a little cloudy, in previous posts, but I felt that I really hadn't explained myself fully yet. Since there are no more mafia red herrings around though, I can fully devote myself to trying to find the SK.

As for your "attack" on HQ when you initially voted, while you did point out an interesting theory, it was far from clear and concrete proof. You had to clarify yourself before everyone really joined the bandwagon.

1) Uh... I don't understand why this makes me more likely to be SK. The sk doesn't have any information on who the mafia is. The SK is just as clueless as to who the mafia are as the town is. Therefore, if I were the sk, I'd be on the scum lynches not out of extra information but due to my own thought process which would lead me to believe that those people were scum. If anything, the fact that I was on successful lynches should make me more likely to be town, as a SK would be more likely to let the scum live so that the scum could help him get rid of more townies before getting rid of the scum. You say yourself that I had very good reasons to vote for both HQ and xyzzy, and I don't understand why you think having a good reason to vote for someone is suspicious.

And once again, my vote wasn't a "throwaway" vote; I explained why I voted in the very same post in which I placed my vote.

Agreed, the SK doesn't have any information on the mafia, but that doesn't mean he wants to tie himself to any one in case they come up scum. Townies are mislynched all the time because someone they defended comes up scum or someone they attacked comes up town. Your refusing to share any information with the town is indicative of a highly defensive survival role.

And just because you were on successful lynches doesn't mean you're town, it just means that you are less likely to be teamscum. The SK needs to kill the mafia just as much as the town, and he can't always rely on his day kill hitting a mafia. He doesn't have any extra information after all. Plus, if the mafia gets too big the SK loses.

Its not really your successful voting record that has me looking your way, so much as how little you've posted compared to your success. You're sitting in the back, gathering information on everyone, but refusing to let others read you. It feels very scummy to me, but not in the teamscum way.

2)Lurking doesn't necessarily make me scum, and few posts don't mean that I'm lurking. I'll start with the latter point, by saying that you said that I had good reasons for both my votes. Therefore, I contributed to the game, particularly in my first vote, for which I gave reasoning, reiterated my reasoning when asked, and finally explained my reasoning in a way in which everyone could understand; thus leading to a successful lynch.

I said you were "Lurking in Plain Sight". I have continually noted your immense knowledge of the game, and that bothers me quite a bit. In fact, this would actually go to explain why lurkers were targeted early game. Someone who is gathering information on everyone but isn't letting anyone gather much about them would be careful to take out any players that could be wild cards.

Yes, you contributed to the game, but until now you have attempted to allude notice from everyone. You tried to strawman my argument, saying I had no reason to call you scummy, but when I showed I did have reason you instead just denied that a SK would do what you did.

You even reason that we should find you protown just because you're lurking and trying to find mafia at the same time. I find that suspicious. I never had you high on my list of possible mafia suspects, but it damn well sky rockets you to the top of my SK suspect.

Furthermore, lurking doesn't make me scum. You'd have to correlate my lurking to being scum by using other games in which I was scum and I was lurking, and games in which I was town and I wasn't lurking.

No I don't. This is a special case, as I have noted before. Whether you lurk as mafia or town is irrelevant. I am accusing you of neither. And if someone has been the SK enough times to have developed a meta, then I would be surprised.

If you

were

the SK before I would expect you to act completely different from then so you could point to that game and say, "Hey I didn't do it there and I was the SK". That type of meta doesn't fly with me.

[Kinetic]

I'm pretty sure the SK deadline is Sat afternoon guys. We need to do some lynching sooner rather than later.

[Kinetic]

I'm very LA because of tests (ones I should be studying for right now... but... <<)

My main issue with Stewie's large amount of knowledge of the game has nothing to do with him being the SK to gain that knowledge. What I mean is, I understand that the SK doesn't just "get" this knowledge from being the SK.

What I am trying to point out is that Stewie is lurking, rarely posting so people cannot get good reads on him, but is following the game to such a degree that he notices patterns of behavior just as much as everyone else, perhaps even better. He continually shows up at the right place and the right time to be pivotal in all of the lynches.

Another point, since you agreed on it, the SK was on time with ALL of his kills except the latest one. You agreed with my theory Mirth that he sent them in in advance. If Stewie really is LA, then this would make perfect sense.

Yet during the entire time he has "Hid in Plain Sight", refusing to give his opinions on any other players, so he is never tied to anyone in case something happens, and is playing extremely carefully. This points to a survivor role in my opinion.

I never meant that I thought he knew who the mafia were, but it seems to me that he is keeping very good notes, yet is refusing to share them with the town. Some of those notes could have been very useful in Day 1 and Day 2.

Mirth: When I pointed to myself being on scum lynches, that was intended to try and prove I wasn't mafia. I understood that didn't prove I wasn't the SK. That was what most of the fighting on Day 2 was about in my opinion. Everyone was trying to go after me because they thought I was the SK, and I really couldn't defend myself because the SK theoretically could be me. I didn't agree with a lot of the attacks, but that doesn't mean there wasn't a chance they couldn't be right.

[Kinetic]

Limited Access

[Kinetic]

My suspicions in case I'm lynched or NKed:

Stewie: Top suspect by far
MGM: Second on my list
Heather: Not really all that high, but possible.
Mirth: Really low, don't think she's the SK. Do think she's been stubbornly attacking me all game, but thats much more townie than anything else.

[Kinetic]

So.... we have two people at Lynch -1 and the only person who I'm pretty much sure isn't the SK has the deciding vote... lol

I'm going to go back and find that exact time of the last SK kill, see when the true deadline is.

[Kinetic]

PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2007 2:06 pm Post subject: 533 Reply with quote
Raffles is killed!

He was a Member of the Mafia!

Ok, we got until 2PM Sunday to make a decision. Looks like the choice is between MGM and Stewie at tis moment.

[Kinetic]

Lynch... >>

Although I'm not too unhappy about it, I did have MGM high on my list, I think I would have much preferred to lynch Stewie...

We'll see what happens after the alignment reveals.

[Kinetic]

-.- There is no keep playing until we get a confirmed SK kill. However, I MUST say this immediately.

DO NOT VOTE!

I swear to god, if one of the townies quick votes on the last day and ends this game prematurely I will be very pissed.

We have a WEEK, we do not have to vote right away.

In other news, let us wait for the SK kill.

[Kinetic]

Well I'll say this much. I cannot say I absolutely wouldn't have hammered MGM, but I would have waited until the last possible moment to do so. I am upset with Mirth, but I'm not sure how to take it.

I still feel Stewie is the SK, MGM was the only other person with a chance in my mind. But I implore everyone, trust NO ONE at the beginning of the day. There are three people left, any one of them can be the SK.

I don't know if I'll live through the SK kill. Originally I thought Mirth would be the one to die, she seemed almost perfect because she is almost as sure as I can be that someone is townie. Her latest moves have me wondering though. If she somehow is alive no one better just write her off... It all depends on who the SK is... If the SK is Mirth, then the person most likely for her to kill would be Heather. I've been gunning for Stewie, there is no reason for her to believe I won't again. In addition, even if she can't get me to vote Stewie, it is very possible she could get Stewie to vote me. She has been gunning for me all game (her own vote history she posted is proof ).

Stewie... I've said my peace... I'm almost sure he's the SK. My reasons have been mentioned. If the SK IS Stewie, I can see him killing me or Mirth. His choice rests on if he kills me if he can WIFOM himself out of the SK position. If he kills Mirth then he'll try and get either me or Heather to mis-vote the other so he can hammer.

Heather I haven't really looked at since day 3 was it? If the final three IS me Stewie and Heather, I will definitely take a good look at her before voting. If she is the SK I would expect her to kill Mirth no question. She is the person who is the most town-looking at this point, and she could very well hide until Stewie or myself voted the the other one.

Quick votes during the next day are anti-town. I think I will be in the final three, mainly because I have enough suspicion on being the possible SK that the real SK might be able to convince another townie to vote me. If I'm killed then the SK is playing a very interesting and dangerous game of random vote..

[Kinetic]

Mirth, have you ever thought of the possibility that you are still alive BECAUSE you're so aggressive to me?

I know when I was scum in 24 I purposely let people live who were aggressive to non-scum and killed off anyone that was just on the fringe to keep things moving in a direction away from me. I won that game.

No, I'm sorry, you don't get to play that card. If I were SK I would have killed to a LONG time ago. I wouldn't have let you stay in this game so long, continuing this one women crusade against me. You dying tonight or you staying alive tonight, BOTH incriminate me! This is the SAME shit you pulled with CKD's death. You say if he lived I was scum, if he died I was scum. You're playing like a newb, stop doing that. I'm reasonably sure you're town but you keep making these stupid attacks instead of going after scum!

Now look, I felt MGM wasn't scum for a while. I wasn't sure, and I even thought he could be the SK at some points, but so far nearly EVERY one of your "instincts" have been WRONG! Wrong on CKD, Wrong on Raffles, Wrong on MGM. Can't you even think its POSSIBLE that you're also wrong on me now?

[Kinetic]

Crap... I have a baaaaaaad feeling right now...

[Kinetic]

Thank you for telling me what I'll do before I do it. I might vote you. In fact, I'm pretty sure I will. But its different from Mirth.

She has been attacking me all game, despite everything. I just started locking on to you and explaining what I think. There is no proof that I won't change my mind, but at this point Mirth hasn't changed hers at all since the game began. All she has done is changed why she is attacking me. Even when circumstances prove her wrong she finds SOME way to justify her attack.

And what makes you think that you starting up the MGM lynch isn't going to escape my notice? Slippery scum.

I'm going to use my Newbie game logic to deduce that the SK is on MGM's lynch. -.-;;

I don't think that the SK is Heather or Mirth, mainly because I half expected the SK to lynch the first person he saw available, or at least not put his neck out if possible.

That being said, I will follow my own advice. I plan on waiting until the kill comes through and analyzing who is left. Assuming I'm left that is. I do believe you're the SK Stewie, but that doesn't mean I'm going to quick vote you. Stop grasping at straws.

Last, I'm starting to get a really bad feeling...

Pooky: If the SK does not kill, and no one in the town will vote, how will a "Deadline" work in this game?

Let me explain my thought process. I brought something up yesterday. The way I would have done the last lynch. Well it is starting to feel like the SK it taking my advice for what to do. I am thinking the SK is waiting for the town to get annoyed, and start voting. TOWN DO NOT FUCKING VOTE! YOU WILL LOSE US THE GAME!

The Sk will wait until someone votes another townie. He will jump on board, daykill the townie that isn't voting or being voted for, then the person being voted will be auto lynched and he will win.

This gives him ALL the benefits of having more players alive so that he can spread suspicion out, and STILL get his day kill.

Town: If the SK refuses to narrow the field, we should REFUSE to vote until he does. We have time on our side at this time, he has been making us sweat the whole game. Let's FORCE him to sweat now.

[Kinetic]

You failed to explain how you telling Mirth that no matter who dies she is still going to be suspicious of you doesn't apply to what you said, which basically incriminates me regardless of who dies (ie: you are going to vote for me regardless of who dies, and you laid it out so that you can point back to it when it happens, or someone else can if you happen to die). Whether you quick vote me or you take your time is irrelevant.

Likewise, in this post you say that me starting the MGM bandwagon is suspicious. What bothers me is that you'd say the same had I put on my vote later on ("Stewie, you piled your vote on, slippery scum!").

I'm just going to twiddle my thumbs here for a bit.

Umm... no I explained perfectly. Stop strawmanning my argument. I said I wouldn't JUST vote for you for the sake of voting you. I would evaluate the information I get after the SK kills, if I'm still alive, and decide the best lynch from there. That is nothing like how Mirth has been the whole game. I have played an adaptive game, trying to find scum. Mirth has LOCKED onto me, and no matter what happens, she finds some way to make it so that I look scummy after word.

What, is voting for you scummy in your opinion or something? Get over yourself. If I think you're the SK after I've actually analyzed the game I will vote for you. If I think someone else is, I will vote for them.

And the reason I find you starting the MGM bandwagon scummy is because you could have piled onto Mirth and vote me, but if you DID vote me out you would be in a bind on who you could call SK on the last day. This is the main reason I think I'm still alive, so I can be the SK's scapegoat. And if Mirth is alive and townie I think you might expect her to vote me, despite everything. So I am trying to get Mirth to see her way is flawed. You are doing everything in your power to stop this, even going so far as to compare our play styles like they're the same. They're not.

Heather: We're about 3 days from when the SK should have killed. We're going to have to begin to look at the reasons for WHY. The best one I can think of, I already mentioned. If bringing that up is "scummy" you need to re-read the meaning of the word.

[Kinetic]

Heather: You apparently didn't read the rules. The SK can kill immediately after a lynch. The fact that they haven't yet is proof that he is doing something sneaky. I needed to say something sooner rather than later or else someone might have fallen into the trap he set.

We can wait him out now though. Force him to kill, we don't need to vote. Anyone who votes before the SK kills is either the SK or voting FOR the SK. Only two options.

[Kinetic]

All I'm saying is that the argument you are using against Mirth (not really against, but still) can also be applied to you. You say "If I think you're the SK after I've actually analyzed the game I will vote for you." Likewise, if Mirth analyzed the game, she can vote for you.

-.- No. It. Can't.

If Mirth really did analyze the game and still thought I was the SK, while I still feel it would be incredibly impossible for her to continue finding me scummy, it would be one thing. But that isn't what I have been arguing against. If you read what I wrote, you'd know that too.

In fact, I'm pretty sure you DO know that, but you're trying to tie the two arguments together to try and use my own reasons against Mirth voting me so that you can say they're the "same" so I shouldn't vote for you. And then use that fact IF I vote for you to say I'm scummy because of it and call me hypocritical. So I am putting my foot down.

The two arguments are NOT the same.

The fact is during the whole game her attacks on me have been flat out wrong. Yet instead of changing her opinions when new facts arise, instead she has been warping her former opinions to match the new circumstances. That is the wrong way to think, and if she continues to do that then I will have no choice but to think that she either A) Is playing badly, or B) Is scum trying to paint a distracting target.

[Kinetic]

Got it. Done.

[Kinetic]

I guess Stewie wasn't paying attention. Mirth proved that Heather can't be the SK, I'm pretty sure that is what she was trying to tell me. I think she also realized I was a townie as well. I think she wanted either myself or heather to be the kill so she could say so, but I'll have to ask her in the endgame if I'm deducing what she was trying to say correctly.

I keep almost voting you, but all my instincts are telling me that I need to wait just a little bit before I vote you Stewie. So I'm going to go to sleep now and will be back on in the morning.

[Kinetic]

Waiting on Heather to check in...

[Kinetic]

I'm pretty sure that what Mirth was aiming for me to notice was this:

Day 2:

Heather puts Kinetic at L-1 with post 422
I put Xyzzy at L-1 with post 475
Stewie hammers Xyzzy with post 486

No posts for Heather on Sept 9. Post on Sept 10 citing loss of internet. Post before then on Sept 7.

Topic: Mini 480 - Boring Town Mafia *DAY 2*
heatherlou

Replies: 468
Views: 19541
PostForum: Little Italy Posted: Mon Sep 10, 2007 6:41 pm Subject: Mini 480 - Boring Town Mafia *DAY 2*
I'm here. i lost internet access unexpectedly. Will read and catch up.
Topic: BM's Mystery Mafia!! Night 2-One less protown power role!
heatherlou

Replies: 1146
Views: 31323
PostForum: Theme Park Posted: Fri Sep 07, 2007 7:21 pm Subject: BM's Mystery Mafia!! Night 2-One less protown power role!
I'm also not seeing very strong reasons for Xdaamno being scum. Doing a re-read, I thought he had pretty good defenses against everything being brought to him.
I'm having a hard time going for either X or Oman, to be honest.
vote: setael for speculating so wildly on the mods intent. Basically the reasoning behind your TCS vote is they are too assertive/decisive?

I admit, it is not irrefutable proof, but as far as I'm concerned it is as good as we'll get.

Heather: If you are the SK, amazing play. Wish we lynched you when I thought you were mafia. But I don't think you are.

Vote:Stewie

[Kinetic]

Ha. Missed part of the important part:

522: Xyzzy is lynched on Sept 9, 4:45 am

(Heather is not on this bandwagon)

533: Raffles is daykilled on Sept 9 1:06 pm

(I will conjecture there is about a 9 hour window of oppurtunity for the kill to have been sent in here)

[Kinetic]

Actually Stewie, that is why that specific case is so strong that the SK DIDN'T send the choice in advance.

The lynch occured, we waited 1 day before we learned the lynch's alignment. If the kill was sent in advance then the SK kill would have then happened IMMEDIATELY. It didn't. In fact, it took 9 hours before the SK kill happened.

That was why I felt pretty sure (75%) that heather wasn't SK.

[Kinetic]

Totally called it.

[Kinetic]

I was pretty sure it was Stewie before the Xyzzy lynch honestly. But I refused to go down that role until the mafia were at least mostly dealt with. That double scum kill hurt Stewie REALLY bad. If he would have killed someone else (Mirth, for instance), I think he would have won. That was his biggest slip up, and it cost him the game in my book.

[Kinetic]

Yea, but you had 4 in a mini. Granted, one died immediately, but if that didn't happen then town had no chance.

[Kinetic]

That sucks indeed. I thought Mafia might not be able to talk, so trying to find scum connections was a lot harder. I thought you and Mirth might have been partners, but I was much more suspicious of you. Although if you weren't killed when you were I would have gone after heather HARDCORE that day as the last mafia. I was blinded by her being mafia for some reason.

I got lucky. Mislynching her would have ruined any credibility I might have gained from HQ. And honestly, xyzzy was all MGM, I didn't think he was really scum honestly, but I was starting to really think MGM was town, so I decided to actually vote based on my opinion of MGM there and not really my opinion on xyzzy .

[Kinetic]

Agreed.

I thought MGM might be the SK, or at least I thought he could be, and at the beginning I tried to throw him out there as a SK, so I could pick at the targets. Why? Because the Mafia's ONLY purpose in this game was to lynch the SK. Anyone who was going after MGM as the SK too much, especially when there were a lot of mafia left, was scummy in my book. The mafia were a much bigger threat than the SK to the town. Even though the SK was killing, we sort of needed the kill, as town.

So CKD, you got caught in my trap, and drew the wrong conclusions, lol. I drew the wrong conclusions on you too, and honestly, if the SK didn't kill you, I can almost be sure that I would have lead your lynch the next day. You were defending HQ a LOT more than I ever defended MGM. And HQ actually was mafia .

In the last two days I was convinced the SK was either Stewie or MGM. I wanted to kill Stewie first because I was much more sure of him, but if he wasn't the SK then I knew it would be MGM, but that didn't quite go as planned.

[Kinetic]

lol. You just completely fit with my SK theory. You were trying to be inconspicuous and at the same time knew a real lot about the game, lol. I kind of made up the reason on the last day to continue, but I was already sure it was you before that, there was nothing you could do to make it so I didn't vote you except die or kill me. I was trying to make it seem like I was wavering before the last kill, but I wasn't. And none of your trying to paint the SK picture on me was going to change my mind, it only made my resolve stronger.