Open Countdown! Mini 487! GAME OVER!

[Kinetic]

I want to put some pressure on Xyzzy too, but I'm just unsure enough about mirth and raffles being a possible scum pair that I don't want to vote right this second. Last thing we need is them two quick voting before we at least hear from xyz. I know that isn't likely at this case, since we're not technically in LYLO, but it still bothers me a bit.

[Mgm]

I prodded Stewie and Xzyyz at the same time a while ago.

I pretty confident xyzzy isn't posting on purpose.

[Kinetic]

Pooky: Are you allowed to tell us if the player read the prod (i.e. it is in your Outbox and not your Sent Mail Box.) or responded to the prod by PM. If you are allowed to tell us, did Xyzzy do either or both of these things?

[heatherlou]

I have a hard time defending myself because of my horrible lack of posting. You guys don't even really have that much fodder to go off of for scum tells from me.
I put kinetic at L-1 because I'm sure he's a good lynch. I really don't think we're mislynching here.
Kinetic, The only reason I'm coming back 'with a vengence' (and even then it's still hard for me to post as frequently as cases against me keep coming up) is because I've been newbie-ing this game to the extreme, because there are so many active and opinionated players in here. This whole thing is all about making mountains out of molehills and I'm not that type of person.
Mirth, I've been defending kinetic's accusations since post 422. I systematically addressed everything he accused me of.
I am not the lynch for today. All you guys really have to go off of is that i suck at playing mafia and I haven't spoken much. This will be a mislynch if you lynch me.

[Kinetic]

I'm even more certain of heather right now. Her blatant OMGUS is just icing on the scum cake.

[Stewie]

CKD, simple as this, if HQ isn't SK and is mafia, I'll be completely fine with lynching him.

This to me sounds like scum that know that their partner is scum, and therefore they try to line up the next lynch. Similar post in 293. I'm not sure about this, because he was voting for HQ for a considerable amount of time, but I'm sure enough to get a lynch before the deadline approaches.

I'm also willing to go after xyzzy, but first I'd like to know why mgm thinks that xyzzy is lurking on purpose.

[Mgm]

Because he doesn't seem to have any activity problems in other threads.

I see no other reason why he'd be avoiding this thread in particular even after being prodded. It can't be that hard to do at least a partial reread, then post some opinions.

Sorry about not getting an actual first post in yet; I've had some issues with my computer. I'm on page 6; so far, no one seems extremely scummy. CKD is acting... strange.

This is his only post from August 29, almost 8 days ago. He was up until page 6 but didn't find anyone particularly scummy only called CKD strange. Mentions computer problems he doesn't have any more. We don't want someone with this amount of posts in the end game. If we don't lynch him, there's nothing to base a read on other than that single post.

[Kinetic]

CKD, simple as this, if HQ isn't SK and is mafia, I'll be completely fine with lynching him.

This to me sounds like scum that know that their partner is scum, and therefore they try to line up the next lynch. Similar post in 293. I'm not sure about this, because he was voting for HQ for a considerable amount of time, but I'm sure enough to get a lynch before the deadline approaches.

I'm also willing to go after xyzzy, but first I'd like to know why mgm thinks that xyzzy is lurking on purpose.

That is taken a bit out of context Stewie. When that was happening CKD was attacking me for not trying hard enough to find the SK. As I saw it, HQ had a slight chance of being the SK, but I was more than comfortable with him being mafia, as I said in that post. CKD's steadfast refusal to try and hunt mafia as well as the SK actually what convinced me that CKd and HQ were scum buddies. Granted, I was wrong, but it wasn't a horrible mistake. It would have been a horrible mistake if I did get CKD lynched instead of HQ, but in the end everything worked out.

It seems to me that if any play is going to be made this week its going to be xyz or myself... I'm a still a little skittish about xyz truthfully... I would prefer a little more information on him, but I understand the Lynch the Lurker mentality. I just hope its not a red herring. I still would prefer heather over anything else, but with time growing short, I might not have that option...

unvote;vote: xyzzy

[Raffles]

I will post later tonight, am in middle of doing a lot of stuff right now.

[Mirth]

Kinetic, I am very very tempted to put you back at L-1 right now. First you say that you think Raffles and I are partners. Then Heather posts and you give up this theory and go back after her. (If you're so sure of Heather being scum, then Raffles and I can't possibly be partners. By your own reasoning it would be one or the other.) Then Stewie says he's willing to go after Xyzzy and you unvote and vote him, even though just a post before you say you're certain of Heather being scum.

[Kinetic]

Kinetic, I am very very tempted to put you back at L-1 right now. First you say that you think Raffles and I are partners.

I want to put some pressure on Xyzzy too, but I'm just unsure enough about mirth and raffles being a possible scum pair that I don't want to vote right this second.

Simple Explanation: You are still on my possible mafia list. Raffles is high on that list, Heather is highest. I think Heather is who I am most confident with overall, but I also think Raffles is a possibility.

That being said, Xyz is not high on either of my lists, mostly because of his lurking. More information on this below. You're higher than him on my mafia list, but he's (much) higher than you on my possible SK list.

Then Heather posts and you give up this theory and go back after her. (If you're so sure of Heather being scum, then Raffles and I can't possibly be partners. By your own reasoning it would be one or the other.)

I still maintain that I am most reasonably sure that Heather is scum, I've maintained that even when I suggested that it is possible that it isn't true. I haven't ruled out the possibility of you two. Granted, you are low on my mafia list too, but I'm not going to just quick vote in the above situation until I'm sure enough to back up my thoughts.

I wouldn't vote for you at this point unless Raffles or Xyz came up scum. In my opinion the only people I could see as your possible scum partners are xyz and Raffles if you are mafia.

However, since I really think heather is scum, her coming up as such would virtually clear you in my mind. Since she is my top suspect, it naturally makes you look less likely to be scum.

However I am also taking to heart the lesson I learned from CKD. No matter how sure I am someone is scum, or how sure I am that someone is town, there are no confirmations. I will look at every possibility and weigh it before I make any decision. My decision will be based on what I think is the most likely case, but just because it is the most likely case, doesn't always means its the right case.

Then Stewie says he's willing to go after Xyzzy and you unvote and vote him, even though just a post before you say you're certain of Heather being scum.

I was waiting for Stewie or Xyzzy to come back and say something. We have about 48 hours to the deadline at this point, and I KNOW how important this deadline is. When Stewie came back three things happened:

1) The fact that it seems no one but me is sure enough about heather to vote her but me, and while I would still immediately vote for her now if we could get her to lynch in time, I don't think that is going to happen.

2) Xyzzy became a possible lynch target by the time we reached deadline. It is true, Stewie's willingness to vote xyz is basically what changed my vote.

3) I'm not sure enough about xyz to vote him just on my convictions, however I know I am not scum and since he looks like the only other option at deadline, I will choose that. Would you prefer I self-vote in that situation?

[Mirth]

First my problem with your statement isnt that you suspect me, but your statement of suspicion in general. If you are sure that Heather is mafia, that leaves only one other possible mafia person. So it would be a situation of me *or* Raffles. (If it is indeed the case that Raffles or I are scum) I also don't like your offer to self-hammer. If you are town, why would you want to?

[Kinetic]

Heather is top on my list, but even at the highest level of suspicion I'm only 85% sure. In the remaining 15% there is the possibility of Raffles/Mirth. Its low, but at that point I wasn't going to blind vote.

And no, I never offered to self-hammer, I was being sarcastic there. I'm not going to vote myself, I was just saying no matter what alignment I am I'm not going to vote myself in a situation where there are two options and killing myself is one of them -.-;

[Mirth]

As I've mentioned before, my internet sarcasm detector doesn't work late at night.

Just out of curiousity, though, what makes you suspect that Raffles and I might be partners. (By this I mean, what do you see connecting us, more than what makes you suspicious.)

[Mgm]

If you're so sure of Heather being scum, then Raffles and I can't possibly be partners.

That's clearly not true. You could be mafia together with heather as the SK. Whether that is a likely combo is another question, but it is possible and invalidates the point I quoted.

[Kinetic]

As I've mentioned before, my internet sarcasm detector doesn't work late at night.

Just out of curiousity, though, what makes you suspect that Raffles and I might be partners. (By this I mean, what do you see connecting us, more than what makes you suspicious.)

The two of you had eerily similar movements day 1, but seemed like you were both trying to not be obvious about it.

The double headed and coordinated attack on my starting day 2 also sticks out.

You two generally have the same opinions on many targets, even sometimes when the possibilities are murky.

Granted, not an air-tight case, but just a couple things I noticed that piqued my interest. Far from high enough in my mind to vote either of you at this point based on my suspicions, but high enough that I'm not just going to blindly overlook it.

[Raffles]

^Couldn't that be said the same about you and MGM? If it wasn't for your avatars I'd probably be confusing you two.

I'm not super convinced as you are with heather-scum Kinetic. Granted I really didn't like the way she put you on L-1 immediately after Heather and I (promptly tempted me to switch vote), but reading her posts, my gut tells me it's more of a newb-mistake than a scum-mistake.

[Kinetic]

Yes the same could be said about me and MGM. In fact, I was more suspicious of people who didn't at least notice said connection on Day 1. I tried very hard to push that was without seeming to do so.

It was much of a less clumsy approach at the technique than I've done in earlier games, but basically it goes like this: Do something obviously scummy, but which doesn't always fit with scum logic. The people who do not mention it are trying to lay low. The people who mention it and preach about it too much are jumping at mole hills.

Its almost the opposite of OMGUS. In some ways it was a plan for me to 'buddy' up MGM. And since we're all going out of our ways noticing things, I might as well tell you the reason I chose MGM. He was my highest suspect for SK, but I wasn't sure enough yet. With the way HQ and CKD were going after him though, it just reeked to me of the Mafia trying to lead the town on a SK hunt, and that is why when CKD out and out admitted as such I found him immensely scummy. Because the very reasoning he admitted to was the principal reason I found him scummy.

Now half of the reason I buddied up like that to MGM was because I didn't want to be killed by the SK. I felt (and still feel now) that without at least some suspicion on you that you become a target for the scum groups. So its hard to balance trying to look a little bit scummy, but not too scummy... You know what I mean?

This is the lists I'm working with in my notes right now, and how I determine my votes. The person highest on the fourth list is who I would vote given the chance, while going down the list is people I'm not as sure about:

The precentages noted here are just my own arbitrary numbers. They don't have a really big backing except from what I feel. I add whenever I think something they say looks scummy and subtract if I feel like they do something pro-town (however certain pro-town things actually raise the SK level).

Day 2 Mafia SK Total
Raffles 60 17 45.66666667
Mirth 35 10 26.66666667
Heather 85 40 70
MGM 4 55 21
Stewie 1 60 20.66666667
Xyzzy 30 50 36.66666667

Possible Mafia List
Heather 85
Raffles 60
Mirth 35
Xyzzy 30
MGM 4
Stewie 1

Possible SK List
Stewie 60
MGM 55
Xyzzy 50
Heather 40
Raffles 17
Mirth 10

ScumList
Heather 85 40 70
Raffles 60 17 45.66666667
Xyzzy 30 50 36.66666667
Mirth 35 10 26.66666667
MGM 4 55 21
Stewie 1 60 20.66666667


The reason I've weighted mafia more is not because I think they're more dangerous (although there are many scenarios where they are), but simply because there are two left, and thus even by random chance there is a higher possibility of nailing one of them than the SK.

So that's basically what I've been using to find scum. Here is my list at the end of Day 1:
Day 1 Mafia SK Total
CKD 65 60 63.75
HQ 80 25 66.25
Mirth 65 30 56.25
Raffles 50 45 48.75
MGM 30 75 41.25
Stewie 45 80 53.75
Xyzzy 50 50 50
Heather 25 55 32.5

Possible Mafia List
HQ 80
CKD 65
Mirth 65
Raffles 50
Xyzzy 50
Stewie 45
MGM 30
Heather 25

Possible SK List
Stewie 80
MGM 75
CKD 65
Heather 55
Xyzzy 50
Raffles 45
Mirth 30
HQ 25

Scum List
HQ 80 25 66.25
CKD 65 65 65
Mirth 65 30 56.25
Stewie 45 80 53.75
Xyzzy 50 50 50
Raffles 50 45 48.75
MGM 30 75 41.25
Heather 25 55 32.5

I did this in excel,and the tables are messed up a little, but I just copied and pasted from the excel document I've been using all game.

[Mgm]

Why say that now instead of making it the first response when you got voted? Now it just seems a last ditch effort to avoid suspicion.

[Kinetic]

I was saving it for day three actually... I didn't think that this bandwagon would have continued this far into the day, especially after what heather pulled. Additionally due to the deadlines of this game, we need to lynch now, so even though I don't think this bandwagon would have continued in a non deadlined game, I don't have the option to try and wait it out.

Felt like this was the only thing I was holding back, so if I am decided as the lynch this week, at the very least I know I said everything I needed to say. If a town win is in the picture I don't want everything I know to be lost, even if I'm lynched.

[Mirth]

I fail to see your reasoning. If you thought MGM was possibly the SK why not attack?

Also, can you explain how you arrived at these totals please?

[Kinetic]

The percentages noted here are just my own arbitrary numbers. They don't have a really big backing except from what I feel. I add whenever I think something they say looks scummy and subtract if I feel like they do something pro-town (however certain pro-town things actually raise the SK level).

Also, at this time my inkling for MGM as the possible SK is just that, its only an inkling. I think Stewie at this point is more likely to be the SK. I posted these so you would see this is how I personally rate the game.

Also, my current list has MGM very low on my total rating scale. I'm still keeping my eye open, but in my opinion there are bigger fish to fry.

[Mirth]

Then why are you still connecting yourself to MGM?

[Raffles]

And if you think Stewie is Sk, why haven't you hardly pressed after him at all?

[Kinetic]

Because I'm not all that sure about my SK guesses right now. I've gone from SK being MGM, then DeepSouth, then CKD, now Stewie. I've been wrong at least three times on SK, and I don't feel confident enough to push for a SK lynch at this time.If I HAD to choose someone to be SK, it would be Stewie right now.

I haven't really thought it could be Stewie before today, and I've kind of been on the defensive the entire day thanks to you and Mirth so I haven't really had time to present a case. But scroll back to the beginning of the day: Link: Thought CKD was SK at the end of Day 1, and after my re-read, if you note I put Stewie at the top of my likely to be SK list.

I would have been pushing Stewie (and I'm pretty sure I mentioned him quite a few times, but he was V/LA) but for the most part I've been defending my play. And even when there were concessions by you and Mirth that my play could be completely town, you both still didn't let up.

So there is everything I know up until this point. What happens today (Friday) and tomorrow (Saturday) will define this game. I hope you'll look over my play and see I've been trying to find both scum all game.